Category: Cougars

  • 2026 Season Preview: Part I

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    Welcome to Opening Week! We’re just under 48 hours away from the first pitch of the 2026 MLB regular season. I’m a tad tardy on getting our season preview articles started as I’ve been spending more time than I had hoped cleaning up a few issues with the new site. But hopefully I’ll be able to get through at least half of the team previews before the season officially begins.

    As I believe I suggested I might do during these previews last year, I’ve decided to make a change in the projection system I’m using to compute these projected stats and standings. For years, I’ve been using FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, which combine Steamer and ZiPS and then adjust for playing time expectations on a per team basis. It’s that last part that was starting to bother me a little bit as I have felt they are far too optimistic in *not* projecting missed time for players who are rarely able to make it through a full season without spending time on the IL. Adjusting the plate appearance or innings pitched numbers really paints a different picture than the source projection systems intended. So I’ve decided to go with a different source which also combines multiple freely available projection systems, but does so in a way that makes more sense to me and tends to have a better predictive track record.

    Staring this year, I am going to use the ATC projection system, created by Ariel Cohen and also available on FanGraphs. ATC utilizes a whole bunch of other freely available projection systems, including Steamer and ZiPS. It weights each of the systems it uses based on their historical strengths and weaknesses in various categories. So essentially it becomes a “best of the best” compilation of all these systems.

    I grabbed the ATC 2026 projections for all players just a few days before our draft started and updated my spreadsheet throughout the draft to leave as little work as possible to be done after the draft completed. So if there was any new information such as injuries that could have popped up these past few weeks, these numbers don’t reflect that. The one exception I made was to completely remove Jurickson Profar from the Darkhorses projections since his full season PED suspension was recently upheld. Interestingly, this very slightly improved the Darkhorses final projections across the batting categories.

    The usual caveats remain. I’m not attempting to make any individual team roster composition guesses, so all 28 players who were on your roster at the conclusion of the draft are fed into this with their full season projections. Then each teams’ totals are scaled to meet a certain plate appearance and innings pitched target. Position slots are not considered at all, so the fact that the Demigods are currently the only team with three catchers on their roster probably does ding their batting numbers relative to other teams even though they likely won’t use more than two catchers at any time this year. So just something to keep in mind.

    Now let’s get to it. As usual, I’m grouping these articles based on teams that are projected to finish near one another in the standings, and am planning on going back to a four part series after doing just three last year. So we’re starting with the two teams that are expected to finish in the bottom two spots in the standings according to these numbers. Notably, last year’s last place finisher is not among them. Also notable that last year’s projected tenth place finisher actually finished five spots higher than that. So keep in mind that the point of this exercise is to peek at each team’s relative strengths and weaknesses more so than trying to predict the actual order of finish.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 7th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 5th (7th-T)
    • Stolen Bases – 4th (6th)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (7th)
    • Wins – 10th (9th-T)
    • Saves – 10th (8th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
    • Total Points – 10th (8th)

    Summary:

    After a disappointing 8th place finish last year, the Jackalope decided it was time for a reboot and went with an extreme youth movement in this month’s draft. Each of their first six draft picks were used on players who made their MLB debut in 2025. So with such small big league sample sizes also comes volatility in the projections. With little to no track record on these guys, projection systems unsurprisingly temper expectations. Of those first six picks, only the first and second rounders, outfielder Roman Anthony and starting pitcher Chase Burns have positive PAR projections. They are clearly the stars of this group. Anthony joins an outfield that is by far the best position group of this roster. Ronald Acuna Jr, Jackson Chourio, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Harris are All-Star caliber players. And of course they have all-world catcher Cal Raleigh back too. It’s the infield where these numbers point to the Jackalope being well below average. Jeremy Pena and Dansby Swanson do give them a solid pair of shortstops though. To exceed these projections, the Jackalope will need at least one of the three young infielders they took with consecutive picks in rounds three through five, Colson Montgomery, Matt Shaw and Marcelo Mayer, to really break out this season. The Jakalope’s disappointing season a year ago was mostly because of the pitching staff. It doesn’t look like this year will be much different in that regard. Burns has exciting potential, but the rest of the rotation consists of veterans past their prime or extremely injury prone hurlers. Getting Gerrit Cole back will be huge boost if he’s able to return to his pre-Tommy John form. Luis Castillo has been the constant in the Jackalope staff for years now, but is clearly not the dominant ace he once was. Bubba Chandler is the other youngster besides Burns who they will turn to if the vets continue to decline or get hurt again. The bullpen looks like what you might expect from a rebuilding team with only Raisel Iglesias firmly entrenched as a closer for his MLB squad. Bryan Abreu has sneaky upside though if Josh Hader misses significant time in Houston. The Jackalope are relying on so many youngsters that it makes it nearly impossible to predict how this will go in the short term. The good news is that when you take that many shots, your chances of a couple big hits increases. That’s exactly what the Jackalope will be hoping for in 2026.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (5th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (2nd)
    • Wins – 9th (8th)
    • Saves – 8th (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th (6th)
    • Total Points – 9th (9th)

    Summary:

    This is exactly where the Cougars were projected to finish a year ago, and it turned out to be almost exactly correct not only in the place of finish, but where they would rank in most of the categories as well. The Cougars will hope that these projections aren’t quite as accurate this time around. The pitching staff was much improved last year, so the hope is that their offense can take similar steps in the right direction in this year’s campaign, even though it is not predicted to happen here. They took a more conservative approach to their offensive rebuild than the Jacklope, going with more proven commodities like Taylor Ward and Luis Arraez in the first half of the draft. Even first round pick Geraldo Perdomo was more of a substance over style pick. Perdomo joins a crowded middle infield, but he and Ketel Marte are the clear headliners. They return the Marlins double play combo of Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez. Maybe the biggest key for the Cougars offense to improve would be a full healthy season from second baseman Matt McLain. It will be interesting to see which of these guys get a bulk of the time at middle infield for the Cougars. They had to completely rebuild the corner spots with Tyler Soderstrom moving to the outfield. Arraez and Caleb Durbin were key additions for those spots. One clear strength is behind the dish with returners Salvador Perez and Shea Langeliers, who are both among the top catchers in fantasy baseball. The outfield is filled with steady veterans like Ward, Bryan Reynolds and underappreciated star Brent Rooker. Rooker actually has the highest projected Batting PAR on this entire roster. The pitching staff looks solid once again, with more or less the entire starting rotation in tact from last year led by reigning NL Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes. Joe Ryan, Nick Pivetta and Kevin Gausman also return and each of them have solid projections for this year too. The one newcomer is another veteran, second round pick Brandon Woodruff, who looks to put a couple injury plagued seasons behind him. The bullpen is a wild card here. Ryan Walker is the only safe bet to rack up saves, but Griffin Jax and Abner Uribe are two others with hopes of earning saves and solid projections in the other categories to go with it. The Cougars should have another solid pitching staff this season. The key to moving up in the standings will be for some of the bats to exceed these projections, with several strong candidates to do so in the middle infield group.

  • Kurtz Kicks off Draft

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    The 2026 DTBL Draft is in the books. I usually write this recap article while the draft is still in progress. Even though that is not the case this time around, I’m going to keep it focused on the first round. There will be time to cover some of the other players taken during the team previews, which will start to roll out soon as we approach Opening Day next week. Going into this year’s draft, it was pretty clear this was not going to match last year in terms of clear cut rising stars occupying the bulk of the first round selections. So it was not surprising that four of the players taken in the first round this year are not new to the DTBL and even one of the newcomers has a few years of MLB experience under his belt.

    The Diamond Dogs got things started by taking one of the few players in this draft who would have been a certain first round pick in any year’s draft. They selected reigning American League Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, whose game power took no time at all acclimating to the big leagues. Kurtz slugged 36 home runs for the Athletics while maintaining an elite .290 batting average as well. This is the first time since 2018 that the first overall pick has been a first baseman. It was the fourth time in five years that the Diamond Dogs have made the first pick in the draft. If Kurtz keeps doing his thing, the Dogs offense could be good enough to make sure a different team gets that opportunity to pick first next year.

    The second pick wasn’t quite as clear cut as the Kurtz selection. The Cougars opted to go with one of last year’s breakout stars, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Perdomo’s disciplined plate approach mixed with excellent speed and newfound power turned him into a complete player in 2025. He hit .290 with 20 homers and 27 stolen bases. What perhaps made this a surprise selection for the Cougars specifically is that the middle infield was already a bit crowded even before the draft started with four of their keepers being second basemen or shortstops. Nonetheless, Perdomo joins Ketel Marte as the cornerstones at those positions moving forward.

    The Jackalope went with youngsters with big upside pretty much throughout this draft, starting with third overall selection Roman Anthony. Anthony entered last season as the consensus top prospect in the game. Like Kurtz, it took very little time for Anthony to show his potential in the big leagues. The five tool outfielder hit .292 with eight home runs before an oblique injury cut his season short. His recent performance in the World Baseball Classic showed that he’s healthy again and already among the best young players in the game. It remains to be seen if the Jackalope youth movement pays immediate dividends. Anthony figures to be a big part of their future regardless of how long it takes to return to contention.

    While this may have been a down year for talent in the draft overall, that was not the case for every position. The league hasn’t seen an influx of top flight catchers in a while. This could be the year that changes. The Komodos selected ’25 National League Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin with the fourth pick. It is the earliest a catcher has been taken in the draft since Gary Sanchez went second overall in 2017. While Baldwin was a prospect of note in the Braves organization, he wasn’t really expected to be a big contributor in 2025 with veteran Sean Murphy leading the Braves catching core. But Baldwin replaced an injured Murphy early in the season and likely took his starting job for good. He hit .274 with 19 homers and 80 RBI, all outstanding numbers for the offensively challenged position of catcher. He will team up with later draft pick Austin Wells to potentially give the Komodos one of the best catching combos in the league.

    The Komodos saw one of their former players go off the board in the pick following their own. The Choppers were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie when they nabbed closer Devin Williams with the fifth pick in the draft. It was definitely a case of picking for need as the Choppers did not bring back a single reliever from their ’25 squad. Williams had established himself as one of the best closers in baseball prior to an injury riddled ’24 season and then a rough 2025 campaign in which he eventually lost his job as the Yankees closer. Now he’s across town with the Mets where he will look to fill Edwin Diaz’s large shoes as their ninth inning stopper. The Choppers went reliever again in the second round taking Daniel Palencia, in hopes of turning this obvious weakness into a strength.

    One of the more interesting players in this year’s draft pool was Ben Rice who has incredible value as long as he remains eligible at catcher in this league. The problem is, that very well could be for this year only depending on how often the Yankees decide to put the slugger behind the dish. He’s far less valuable from a fantasy perspective manning first base. The Kings decided the gamble was worth it for this year anyway, making him the sixth selection of the draft. Rice hit 26 home runs with well above typical catcher numbers in average, runs and RBIs as well. So long as he puts up similar numbers this year, he will give the Kings a huge leg up on most of the league at that position. Whether or not he is one and done at that position in this league is something the Kings will worry about next offseason.

    A second former Komodo went off the board with the seventh pick. The Darkhorses nabbed veteran shortstop Corey Seager who perhaps had lost favor with the Komodos after a string of injury marred seasons. When healthy though, he’s about as reliable of an offensive performer as you can get. The Darkhorses offense is what prevented them from being a serious title contender a year ago. They were particularly weak up the middle. Seager should provide an immediate upgrade at that spot. If he stays healthy this time around, the Darkhorses figure to be in the championship mix all the way to the end.

    Kyle Bradish has a chance to be this year’s Garrett Crochet, a player who has been on the DTBL roster before but retains rookie eligibility due to never seeing an active roster before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2024. I think people forget how good he was prior to that injury. Obviously the Demigods didn’t, as they selected him with the seventh overall pick, making him the first starting pitcher taken in this draft. Bradish is the second straight Oriole taken by the Demigods in the first round, following Jordan Westburg a year ago. Bradish returned from the long rehab process late last season and looked like his old self, throwing 32 dominant innings. Because he never saw time on the active roster with the Jackalope, he enters this season as a strong DTBL Rookie of the Year candidate.

    Another starting pitcher followed Bradish with the Moonshiners selecting young righty Nolan McLean with pick number nine. McLean really flew up prospect rankings last year and had an extremely impressive MLB cup of coffee. He retains MLB rookie eligibility entering this season and is the consensus preseason favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Drafted out of college as a two-way player, it has just been a little over a year since he started focusing solely on pitching. So there is still huge room for growth. As we saw in last night’s WBC Championship Game, he’s not afraid of the biggest of stages, and has the stuff to back it up. This is the third straight year the Moonshiners have used their first pick on a starting pitcher. Good luck to McLean in living up to the standard set by Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.

    The Mavericks really have no weaknesses, so the two time defending champs could go in pretty much whatever direction they wanted with their early draft picks. This time, they opted to pick up a steady veteran outfielder in Ian Happ. Happ joins an outfield that already consisted of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Jarren Duran and Mike Trout. Jazz Chisholm is moving onto the dirt this season though, opening up a spot for another solid outfield contributor. Happ figures to be just that. Going with proven commodities with their first several picks allowed the Mavericks to take some big swings at youngsters later in the draft. If history is any indication, they will probably hit a couple home runs with those picks. The Mavericks remain the team to beat in this league.

    Thanks to everyone for a well paced and well executed draft. We’re less than a week away from Opening Day. Season preview posts will be coming very soon. Stay tuned!

  • 2025 Season Preview: Part I

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    We're just hours away from the real start of the 2025 MLB season, after last week's two game appetizer in Japan.  So it's probably about time I start the DTBL season preview series.  Because I'm so tardy getting started, I'm going to consolidate this down to a three part series, covering nearly half of the teams in this Part I.  I intend to get through all ten teams before the end of the weekend.

    As usual, I'm going to use outside projections as the guiding light for my team previews.  I've computed projected standings using FanGraphs' Depth Chart projections, which merges two other projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts to expected playing time based on each MLB team's depth chart.  As this year's draft progressed, it started to occur to me that Depth Charts might not be my best option for this, for reasons that I'm not going to get into right now.  I'm just throwing this out here to remind myself to reevaluate next year.  One thing I will point out, which is a flaw in my own methodology and not the projections themselves, is that I compiled these player projections a few days prior to the start of the draft.  So injuries and other spring training developments this month may not be factored into these numbers.  Where especially relevant, I will mention this in the team write-ups.  As I say every year, I wouldn't read into the specific ordinal rankings too heavily.  The purpose of this exercise is to get some sense of where each team's strengths and weaknesses exist, in a largely objective fashion.

    Let's get started.  This first part is going to contain previews of the four teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.  I went with four both because I'm trying to consolidate this into one fewer section than in previous years, and also because these four teams are projected to finish extremely close to one another in the standings.  Just six points separate the seventh and tenth place finishers in the full projected standings, which I will share in the final article of this series.  Meanwhile, the sixth place finisher is double digit points ahead of all of these teams.  So if the projected standings are to be believed, which they honestly shouldn't be, these are the four teams least likely to contend for the league title.

     

    Charlie's Thunder Choppers

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 8th (9th)
    • Home Runs - 10th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In - 10th (8th)
    • Runs Scored - 5th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (6th)
    • Earned Run Average - 9th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (2nd)
    • Wins - 10th (8th)
    • Saves - 4th (6th)
    • Strike Outs - 7th (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points - 8th (8th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points - 7th-T (4th)
    • Total Points - 10th (7th)

    Summary:

    Well, somebody has to be last.  As mentioned up top, there really isn't much separating any of the teams covered in this section.  The Choppers happen to wind up with the fewest projected standings points though.  Pitching is largely to blame for this, which is a bit surprising since they had an above average staff a year ago and are bringing back pretty much everyone who was responsible for that.  Although that also sort of explains the drop in the projections compared to the rest of the league.  They did not add any significant pitching pieces, at least on paper.  Their first five draft picks were all hitters and they didn't pick a starting pitcher until the 10th round.  So the rotation to start the year figures to be the main five from last year:  Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease, Blake Snell, Brian Woo and Taj Bradley.  There are a couple wild cards here that could improve things on the pitching side.  One would be a strong return from Tommy John surgery from last year's first round pick Eury Perez, though that probably won't happen until the second half of the season.  The other is the possible emergence of top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe who will begin the season in the Tigers rotation and could eventually give the Choppers a huge boost as an extra starter in a relief pitching slot.  The methodology I use for these projections fails to reward teams with extra starting pitchers since all team inning totals are normalized.  So if Jobe can stick in the rotation and put up good numbers in the process, that could be a huge boon to the Choppers in several categories, particularly strikeouts and wins.  The bullpen should be a strength for the Choppers regardless of how they deploy Jobe.  Emmanuel Clase remains one of the best closers in baseball.  Kyle Finnegan and Carlos Estevez aren't at that level, but should be reliable sources for saves.  Like the pitching staff, the Choppers infield has a very familiar look to it with Adley Rutschman behind the plate, Pete Alonso at first and CJ Abrams at shortstop leading the way.  It is not a flashy group on the whole, but reliable contributors across the board.  The outfield is where things look completely different this year.  Wyatt Langford, Lawrence Butler and Colton Cowser were all drafted in the first four rounds this month.  All three provide power and Langford and Butler add speed to the mix as well.  The one returning stalwart in the outfield is Kyle Schwarber.  This outfield group is probably where the Choppers are going to need the breakouts to occur to soar past these modest offensive projections.  While the Choppers are in the midst of a quarter century title drought, they almost never finish dead last either.  That last happened in 2008.  So needless to say, expectations are much higher than the numbers thrown out here.

     

    Kelly's Cougars

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 10th (7th)
    • Home Runs - 7th (7th)
    • Runs Batted In - 7th (4th)
    • Runs Scored - 10th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases - 10th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average - 4th (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (7th)
    • Wins - 5th (10th)
    • Saves - 9th (10th)
    • Strike Outs - 4th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points - 10th (8th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points - 5th (10th)
    • Total Points - 9th (10th)

    Summary:

    This is the second straight year that the Choppers and Cougars have come out on the bottom of these pre-season projections, so maybe there is something about their team builds that don't fit well into this model.  Although in the case of the Cougars, the last place projection a year ago proved to be correct.  There are some signs of significant improvement this year on the pitching side.  That's largely thanks to the arrival of first overall draft pick Paul Skenes.  Skenes has the fourth highest projected Pitching PAR in the league, first among rookies.  The rest of the rotation is mostly unchanged from last year, with Corbin Burnes and Joe Ryan being the top returners.  Besides Skenes, the other reason for improved projections is the expectation that Kevin Gausman will return to form after a disappointing 2024.  Seth Lugo could have been a steal in the 10th round of the draft.  He had a breakout season last year that actually put him in the thick of the AL Cy Young award race late into the season.  It would be very surprising if the Cougars rotation isn't vastly improved this year.  The bullpen remains a question mark though.  There are a lot of good stuff, late inning high leverage guys in this group, but only Ryan Walker enters the season with a closer gig locked up.  Justin Martinez is a decent bet to contribute saves too.  The rest of the relievers are a bit further down the pecking order on their clubs.  The projections on the hitting side are not great.  Only last year's breakout star Brent Rooker is pegged to finish over 4 PAR.  It is a little surprising that Ketel Marte isn't at that threshold considering how great of a season he had a year ago.  One guy to watch will be middle infielder Matt McLain who the Cougars used a second round pick on last year, but missed the entire season due to a shoulder injury.  There is still tremendous upside potential there as a five category stud.  The catching duo of Salvador Perez and Shea Langeliers is one of the league's best pairs.  Newcomer shortstop Xavier Edwards should easily lead the team in steals, which could be hard to come by for the rest of the roster.  The outfield is a bag of mysteries outside of Rooker and Bryan Reynolds.  This group took a hit this week when Nolan Jones was traded away from Colorado back to Cleveland.  There are probably too many question marks on the hitting side to expect the Cougars to have an above average offense.  So it will be up to Skenes and the rotation to take this team well out of the cellar.

     

    Jay's Jackalope

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 6th (8th)
    • Home Runs - 6th (8th)
    • Runs Batted In - 6th (9th)
    • Runs Scored - 6th (7th)
    • Stolen Bases - 6th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average - 8th (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 6th (5th)
    • Wins - 8th (9th)
    • Saves - 10th (7th)
    • Strike Outs - 6th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points - 6th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 7th-T (9th)
    • Total Points - 8th (9th)

    Summary:

    Any hopes the Jackalope had in 2024 quickly died when reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr tore his ACL in late May.  Unfortunately for the Jackalope, injuries are already shaping up to be a big part of the story again this season.  But let's start out with some positives.  The Jackalope offense looks to be perfectly adequate across the board, projected to finish with more standings points this year in all five batting categories.  This is largely thanks to the expected May return of Acuna, although I think the projections are probably a bit too optimistic about the number of plate appearances he will record and bases he will be allowed to steal.  The other main boost to the offense is second overall pick Jackson Chourio who figures to be a five category star right from the get-go.  Chourio joins an already strong cast of returning outfielders in Acuna, Michael Harris, Anthony Santander, Adolis Garcia and Pete Crow-Armstrong.  This is clearly the Jackalope's strongest position group, putting them up there with any team in the league besides the Mavericks.  Cal Raleigh is among the league's best catchers, but I would not say the Jackalope have superstars at any other infield position.  Second round pick Mark Vientos should give them a nice boost at the hot corner though.  Where these projections fall apart, and frankly are probably overcooked, is on the pitching side.  That's because I pulled these numbers in early March before it was known there was anything wrong with Gerrit Cole, much less that he will miss the entire season following Tommy John surgery.  Cole would be impossible for any team to replace, but especially the Jackalope who are in crisis mode with the health of several other starting pitchers as well.  Second round pick Jared Jones also has an elbow injury, which thankfully won't require surgery at this time, but will probably cost him half the season.  Grayson Rodriguez and Ranger Suarez will also start the year on the IL.  Amazingly, oft injured Tyler Glasnow is the healthy ace of the staff at the moment.  It is going to be tough for the Jackalope to keep afloat with their rotation in shambles to start the season.  The bullpen does not appear equipped to pick up the slack either.  Raisel Iglesias is the only pitcher on the staff who is a good bet to pick up a significant number of saves.  Interestingly, the Jackalope opted to build their bullpen out of high strikeout guys who can perhaps boost the other non-saves pitching categories as well.  Not a terrible strategy as difficult as saves can be to project.  However, what was unusual about the Jacklope approach is that they picked several of these non-closers in the first half of the draft.  One could assume this would have played out differently if they had known what was about to happen to their rotation.  At any rate, the Jackalope have a solid offense, easily the best among the teams covered in this section according to the projections.  The question is will it matter if they can't field a full staff of healthy pitchers?

     

    Dan's Diamond Dogs

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 9th (2nd)
    • Home Runs - 4th (5th-T)
    • Runs Batted In - 5th (5th)
    • Runs Scored - 7th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases - 1st (4th)
    • Earned Run Average - 10th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 10th (10th)
    • Wins - 9th (7th)
    • Saves - 2nd (1st)
    • Strike Outs - 10th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points - 5th (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 10th (8th)
    • Total Points - 7th (5th)

    Summary:

    We wrap up this segment of the preview series with last year's most pleasant surprise.  The Diamond Dogs followed up three straight last place finishes (two under current ownership) with a very solid fifth place standing.  It was a vastly improved offense that was mostly responsible for the boost.  That still appears to be the strength of the team heading into this season, with the pitching staff projected for the fewest points in the league.  The makeup of the offense is a bit different this year though.  These Dogs can run.  Seven of them are projected to steal at least 20 bases this year, led by shortstop and reigning Rookie of the Year Elly De La Cruz.  Newcomer second baseman Brice Turang and returning star shortstops Trea Turner and Oneil Cruz give the Dogs the fastest middle infield in the league, and a pretty powerful group as well.  The outfield has a ton of potential upside.  Veterans Teoscar Hernandez and Marcell Ozuna complement superstar Julio Rodriguez.  Josh Lowe is someone to watch as a possible breakout star this season, particularly playing half his games in the very left-handed hitter friendly minor league park the Rays will call home this year.  Adding to that outfield mix is first round pick Brenton Doyle who also plays in a hitter friendly environment in Denver.  Take it to the bank that the Diamond Dogs will lead the league in stolen bases.  These projections show a bit of a step backwards in batting average though.  Overall, it is a solid offensive squad.  The pitching staff will need to exceed the projections for them to take another step forward in 2025.  The Dogs did not use any of their early draft capital on the rotation.  The good news though is that they are entering this campaign in far healthier form.  Returning after missing all of 2024 is Sandy Alcantara.  He figures to pick up right where he left off in 2023 as the ace of this staff.  Jack Flaherty is the one new piece to the rotation and has the next best projections behind Alcantara.  Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt are solid veterans, but not star producers at this stage of their careers.  The Dogs could really use breakout seasons from one or both of Shane Baz and Mitch Keller to raise the ceiling of this staff.  The bullpen figures to be one of the league's best again after topping the league in saves a year ago.  Josh Hader and Ryan Helsley are back to lead the way, while Ryan Pressley figures to return to a closing role now that he is no longer a teammate of Hader's in real life.  Although the final projection is for the Diamond Dogs to drop a couple places in the standings this season, I would still consider this an arrow up franchise that just needs to get better starting pitching in order to reach contender status.

  • Paul and Jacksons Kick Off Draft

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    The 2024 MLB season saw the infusion of one of the best crop of rookie outfielders in recent memory.  But it was a rookie pitcher who stole the show.  Less than a year after being selected by the Pirates with the first pick in the 2023 Draft, and with just 12 professional starts under his belt, right handed fireballer Paul Skenes made his big league debut in May of 2024.  Two months later, he started the All-Star Game for the National League.  After the conclusion of the season, he was named NL Rookie of the Year, finished third in the NL Cy Young vote and even garnered some MVP votes.  Now, he's been selected first overall in another draft with the Cougars selecting him to start the 2025 DTBL Draft.

    Skenes is the first player to be selected first overall in both the MLB and DTBL drafts since Carlos Correa.  But for Correa, who was selected by the Astros out of high school, those selections were separated by four years (2012 and 2016).  Skenes did it in a 20 month span.  While Skenes probably would have been the favorite to lead off this draft regardless of who was picking, he especially made sense for the Cougars who had a very rough season from their pitchers in 2024, finishing last in total pitching points as well as the categories of ERA and wins, with a ninth place finish in strikeouts.  In comes Skenes who should give them a huge boost in all of those categories.  In just 133 MLB innings, he struck out 170 batters with a miniscule 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  He even won 11 games despite not being allowed to work terribly deep into games to keep his inning count under control.  It is scary to think what he might be capable of he is fully let loose.

    Here is a fun fact for you.  Prior to this year, there had never been a DTBL player with the first name Jackson.  Now all of the sudden, three of the first 13 players selected in this year's draft have that given name and a fourth remains available in the draft pool.  Must have been a popular name choice two decades ago.  With the second pick in the draft, the Jackalope selected Milwaukee outfielder Jackson Chourio.  Chourio made the big league Opening Day roster last year at the ripe age of 20 and made an immediate splash.  He hit .275 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases.  He finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year vote, behind the two players he was sandwiched between in this draft.  The Jackalope will be happy to have Chourio on hand to rebound from last year's ninth place finish that saw them at the bottom of the batting point standings.

    Another Jackson was selected with the third pick.  That would be Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, picked by the Darkhorses.  Like Chourio, Merrill made his MLB debut on Opening Day last year.  He was about a year older though, having turned 21 a couple weeks into the season.  In addition to learning how to handle life in the big leagues, he was also learning a new position.  Merrill was almost exclusively a shortstop during his rise through the minors.  That learning curve did not appear to derail his hitting.  He hit an impressive .292 with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases.  He finished between Skenes and Chourio as the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up.  Now those three will get to duke it out again for DTBL ROY honors.  Merrill provides some youth to a very experienced Darkhorses lineup.  No returning Darkhorses player has quite the same power and speed combo as Merrill.

    While the run of Jacksons ended with pick four, the run of young dynamic outfielders did not.  The Choppers selected Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford with the number four pick.  2023 MLB Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  2025 DTBL Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  Langford was another guy given the opportunity to debut on Opening Day of '24.  However, he missed about a month of time due to injury.  He finished the season quite strong, rebounding from a slow start to his career.  He racked up 16 homers with 19 steals, proving to be another versatile fantasy producer.  The Choppers will look to Langford to pump some life into an offense that has been their downfall in recent years.

    Next comes yet another young outfielder.  With the fifth pick, the Komodos selected Nationals slugger James Wood.  Wood didn't make his debut until July, so his rookie numbers weren't quite as gaudy as those taken ahead of him in this draft.  But he did show off a propensity for hitting the ball hard.  Once he starts hitting more of those balls in the air, the sky is the limit (no pun intended).  He probably has the most raw power of anyone taken in the first round of this draft.  Oh, and despite his hulking 6'7" frame, he can run too.  Wood is a nice fit on a Komodos offense that could be sneaky good.

    How about another outfielder?  With the sixth pick, the Diamond Dogs selected Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle.  Doyle was the first player selected in this draft who didn't make his MLB debut in 2024.  But he is brand new to the DTBL just like the others.  Doyle initially came up as a glove first outfielder.  While he remains an elite defender, he also broke out as a hitter last year, hitting 23 home runs to compliment 30 stolen bases.  The Dogs should benefit from Doyle playing half his games in Denver for the foreseeable future.  However, an encouraging sign is that he hit almost as many homers on the road as at home a year ago (11 vs 12).  Doyle joining Elly De La Cruz and second round pick Brice Turang ought to make the Diamond Dogs the overwhelming favorite to lead the league in steals.

    The outfielder run finally came to an end with pick number seven.  The Demigods used that slot to select third baseman Jordan Westburg.  Westburg was the first non-DTBL rookie off the board.  Interestingly, he actually finished the 2024 DTBL season in the free agent pool after an August release by the Mavericks.  Perhaps his impending move from 2B to 3B scared some teams off from signing him late in the season.  While not a DTBL rookie, Westburg is still quite new to the big leagues with '24 being his first extended run.  He hit .264 with 18 home runs.  As a right handed hitter, he could be one of the prime beneficiaries of the Orioles moving in the fences in left field at Camden Yards.  Most teams would probably value Westburg more if he remained at second base, but the Demigods had a gaping hole at third that he should fill nicely.

    My easily searchable draft records go back as far as 2005.  Since then, on two occasions half of the players selected in the first round were outfielders (2011 and 2021), but never more than that.  Until now.  With the eighth pick in the draft, the Kings selected Dylan Crews, the sixth outfielder to go off the board.  Crews is yet another product of the 2023 MLB Draft, where he was the second overall selection behind his LSU teammate Skenes.  Like all of the other outfielders taken in this first round, Crews can both run and hit for power.  Perhaps he leans a little more towards the speed side than the others though.  He didn't debut with the Nationals until late August last year, but still managed to steal a dozen bases.  The Kings were in desperate need to join in on the outfield fun as they lost Mookie Betts to the infield and only kept one remaining outfielder from last year's squad.  Crews will be a nice first piece towards that outfield rebuild.

    Most years, there is little chance a player with Garrett Crochet's profile would drop all the way to the ninth pick in the draft.  But the way this year's draft order shuffled out, most of the teams in the middle of the round had bigger needs than pitching.  The Moonshiners, on the other hand, only kept three starters from last year and had an obvious need for someone to compliment reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, their first round pick a year ago.  So the Moonshiners being able to grab Crochet at #9 worked out quite nicely for them.  Crochet's first professional season as a starting pitcher was a roaring success.  Had he not been on a strict innings limit in the second half of the season, he may have challenged Skubal for the AL Cy Young award.  He struck out 209 batters in just 146 innings.  And now he's been freed from a god awful White Sox roster and has a chance to be a bonafide ace in Boston.  Crochet remains rookie eligible in the DTBL.  He was drafted by the Jackalope as a reliever in 2022, but tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery before the season started.  He has not been on the league roster the past two years.

    The defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, another pitcher who probably would have been picked earlier in a different year.  This also worked out quite nicely for the Mavericks who already have one of the best offenses in league history coming back.  One of their very few weaknesses a year ago was starting pitching depth.  Now Yamamoto joins Chris Sale and Pablo Lopez to form a trio that should easily keep them near the top of the standings.  Yamamoto was the preseason favorite to win that NL Rookie of the Year award that ultimately went to Skenes.  But injuries limited him to just 90 innings.  Unlike most Japanese pitchers who had come over to MLB before him, Yamamoto is still approaching the prime of his career.  This will be his age 26 season.  There is perhaps some post-hype sleeper potential here.

    So the six outfielder first round was bookended by three starting pitchers.  That means just one infielder and no catchers were selected in the first round, the fewest from that group of five positions in any draft since 2005.  The most comparable year was 2011 when there was also just one infielder selected, but amusingly there were three first round catchers that year.  Not surprisingly, infielders were very prominent in the second and third rounds of this year's draft.  Hopefully we'll be wrapping up the draft around this time next week and Opening Day preparations can begin in earnest.

  • 2024 Season Preview: Part I

    Embed from Getty Images With the two Dodgers/Padres games in Korea earlier this week, the 2024 MLB season is officially underway.  The other 28 teams won't start their campaigns until next Thursday though.  So it is certainly not too late to preview the upcoming season.  As usual, I will be doing so with the help of projection systems.  I have computed the projected league standings using FanGraphs' Depth Chart projections, which merges two other projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts to expected playing time based on each MLB team's depth chart.

    On my end, I incorporate the numbers for all 28 players who were on each DTBL team's roster at the conclusion of the draft and then scale to a total of 8,285 plate appearances and 1,220 innings pitched to approximate a full season usage of healthy players.  This means that every player on the roster is equally considered (assuming similar PA or IP projections) even if they are not likely to be on the active roster for the full season.  I do not want to be making any assumptions about other team's roster construction.  These player projections were grabbed from FanGraphs shortly before our draft began.  I then updated each team's totals as the draft progressed to save time at the end.  This means I'm missing some developments over the past few weeks such as injuries and late free agent signings.  Note that the players who were unsigned free agents *do* have stat projections here, just that they were not adjusted to fit into their new team's depth chart.  In the team write-ups, I will mention any recent developments that may have changed the projections if fresh data had been used.

    Now on to this year's projections.  As I'm sure you have become well aware, these shouldn't be taken too seriously as an accurate prediction of what is to come.  Last year's projected standings had the eventual champion Demigods finishing eighth, for example.  These are best used to highlight each team's strengths and weaknesses heading into the season.  As usual, I'm chopping this into four parts, trying to keep teams that are expected to finish near each other in total points in the same article.  I'm going to start with just two teams today because the clustered projections are mostly at the top half of the standings this year.  Jay will probably be amused by this particular segment because the two teams covered here are the exact two he called out in our email chain a couple weeks ago.  These are two original franchises who are experiencing decades long title droughts.  Perhaps they should be comforted by the last two champions being teams that had their own decades long droughts before winning their first league titles.  Here are the teams projected to finish in the bottom two spots of the standings.

     

    Kelly's Cougars

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 7th (10th)
    • Home Runs - 8th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In - 8th (10th)
    • Runs Scored - 10th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases - 10th (8th)
    • Earned Run Average - 9th (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (2nd)
    • Wins - 10th (9th)
    • Saves - 10th (7th)
    • Strike Outs - 8th (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points - 10th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 10th (4th)
    • Total Points - 10th (9th)

    Summary:

    This is the second straight year that the Cougars have been slotted in the last spot in our projected standings.  Last year, they were able to avoid actually finishing in that spot thanks to a very solid pitching staff.  Unfortunately, these numbers show them continuing to have the league's worst offense, but also with a huge drop in pitching.  They did attempt to fix the offense that finished in last place in every category except for stolen bases a year ago.  Their first two draft picks, outfielder Nolan Jones and shortstop Matt McLain actually have the two highest Batting PAR projections on the roster.  The problem is pedestrian projections for pretty much all of the returning hitters.  Infielders Ketel Marte and Ha-Seong Kim were two of their few offensive bright spots in '23.  They are projected to take a bit of a step back this year, though they should continue to be solid contributors.  McLain gives them another nice boost of power and speed to the middle infield.  Unfortunately, he will begin the season on the IL with a shoulder injury.  Catching and corner infield are clear weak spots, led by past their prime players like Salvador Perez, Josh Bell and Justin Turner.  The outfield lacks star power, but the arrival of Nolan Jones should improve the unit as a whole.  Another newcomer to the outfield is Masataka Yoshida.  The tepid pitching projections are a bit surprising because this looks like a solid group.  Their top four guys from last year:  Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Merrill Kelly and Jordan Montgomery, are all coming off excellent seasons and there is no reason to think they can't do it again.  Montgomery needs to sign with a MLB club first though.  The projection systems don't love Kelly or Montgomery, which dampens the team totals.  The bullpen took a major blow when Josh Hader signed with the Astros, moving Cougars closing stalwart Ryan Pressly to a much less useful setup role.  Evan Phillips and Alex Lange will be counted upon to carry the saves category.  The path for the Cougars to smash these projections is having their pitching staff repeat what they did a year ago and have the offense inch its way towards respectability.  They are looking for their first top half of the standings finish since 2020.

     

    Charlie's Thunder Choppers

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 8th (9th)
    • Home Runs - 10th (8th)
    • Runs Batted In - 10th (6th)
    • Runs Scored - 8th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases - 4th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average - 7th (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (8th)
    • Wins - 8th (5th-T)
    • Saves - 8th (3rd)
    • Strike Outs - 4th (4th)
    • Total Batting Points - 9th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 8th (2nd-T)
    • Total Points - 9th (6th)

    Summary:

    The Choppers projections are very similar, but slightly better than the Cougars.  Once again, they show a team that remains weak offensively, but also showing a pitching staff taking a major step backwards from a year ago.  Short term, the Choppers biggest problem is that almost all of the pitchers they drafted to keep that staff going strong are currently dealing with injuries.  First round draft pick Eury Perez, fourth rounder Gavin Williams and eighth rounder Taj Bradley will all open the season on the shelf.  There is some good news for the pitching staff though.  Blake Snell finally found a new home this week, signing with San Francisco.  Unclear when he will make his debut, but the Choppers should have the reigning NL Cy Young winner anchoring their rotation again soon.  Dylan Cease getting traded to the Padres is probably a positive development for the Choppers rotation as well.  Logan Gilbert joins Snell and Cease to give the Choppers a staff with a ton of upside.  Now if they could just get a couple of those newcomers healthy.  Another bit of upside for the pitching staff is that it appears A.J. Puk and Jordan Hicks will give them a couple extra starters out of relief spots.  My projection system does not give them credit for this since all team totals are scaled to identical innings numbers.  The two actual relievers, Emmanuel Clase and Jordan Romano, are among the league's best closers.  So this quartet could be a major reason why the Choppers exceed expectations on the pitching side.  There are only five players projected to hit at least 40 home runs this season and two of them play for the Choppers:  Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber.  That makes their last place projection in the power categories a bit surprising.  Alonso is joined by Triston Cases to give them a nice power combo at first base.  There is some major upside in the rest of their infield too.  Ke'Bryan Hayes started to break out in the second half last year, as did shortstop C.J. Abrams.  Nico Hoerner has quietly become a fantasy star mixing decent power with a ton of steals and a good average.  If one of their other young infielders, Vaughn Grissom and Zack Gelof, takes another step forward, this could be an excellent infield.  The outfield is where they fall a bit short compared to most teams in the power categories.  Kyle Schwarber being the exception, of course.  Second round pick Evan Carter is an intriguing addition to this group.  Finally, the offense should benefit from another year of elite catcher Adley Rutschman.  There is plenty of potential on this roster.  But the first step will be to get some of their pitchers healthy so they can make a run in this 25th anniversary season of their last DTBL title.

  • Dogs Make Room For EDLC

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    Coming off three straight last place finishes (two under current leadership), the Diamond Dogs obviously had a lot of holes to fill.  However, shortstop wasn’t one of them.  Trea Turner and Bo Bichette have been among the best shortstops in the game for several years now.  Last year, Oneil Cruz appeared poised to join those ranks before a nasty leg injury ended his season soon after it started in April.  With all three of those players back in the fold for this season and the consensus #1 player available in the draft also being a shortstop, the Diamond Dogs had a difficult decision to make.

    A couple days prior to the start of the 2024 DTBL Draft, the Diamond Dogs dealt Bichette to the Kings, opening a spot for them to select Reds dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz with the first pick.  Meanwhile, the Kings filled a spot vacated by a position change and their postseason release of longtime shortstop Carlos Correa.  In addition to clearing room for De La Cruz, the Dogs also acquired the Kings first round pick (7th overall) and catcher Sean Murphy.  The Kings added Bichette and the first pick of the fourth round.  For the Kings, giving up that first rounder for Bichette was a fairly easy call as he is a far safer bet than anyone selected in this entire draft.  While giving up the steady Murphy hurt a bit, they do still have Will Smith behind the plate.  On the other side, the Dogs did not keep a catcher, so Murphy immediately moves into their #1 catcher spot.

    Of course, De La Cruz was the main reason why this trade happened.  Soon after making his debut for the Reds last year, he became the talk of the league, demonstrating his light tower power and blazing speed on a nearly daily basis.  Initially splitting time between shortstop and third base, he would eventually settle in as the Reds everyday shortstop, a position he figures to occupy for the foreseeable future.  By the All-Star break, he was hitting .325 with an .887 OPS and 16 stolen bases.  He did struggle down the stretch though, in the longest season of his professional life.  His batting average finished at .235.  But he did slug 13 home runs and stole 35 bases.  Even if the hit tool is slow to develop and the strikeout problem continues, his raw power and elite speed gives him a pretty high floor and certainly someone who will help a Diamond Dogs team that finished dead last in steals a year ago.  That almost certainly won’t happen again.  Him joining forces with a healthy Oneil Cruz will make the Dogs fun to watch at the very least.

    It would have been difficult to predict how the rest of the first round would play out because De La Cruz really was the only player who felt like a lock to be among the first players off the board.  The Cougars, who finished last in every offensive category except for stolen bases last year, opted to go with the best bat they could find, outfielder Nolan Jones.  Jones had previously seemed to be a bit of a bust as a prospect for Cleveland.  Moving to Colorado was just what the doctor ordered though.  He put up a 20/20 season, exactly 20 home runs and stolen bases, with a .297 average, all while regularly playing in the outfield for the first time in his career.  The Cougars moved on from a couple of their longtime players who remain Rockies, Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant, but now have a much younger Rockie in the fold.  Jones should help them become a more dangerous offensive team.

    Like the Cougars, the Moonshiners more or less drafted for need with the third pick.  But their need was on the mound.  After winning the league title in ’22 with an excellent staff, that same group cratered to just 18 pitching points a year ago.  In comes the only non-DTBL rookie drafted in the first round this year, lefty Tarik Skubal.  Skubal’s actual DTBL rookie campaign with the Kings in ’22 ended abruptly with elbow surgery, which caused the Kings to release him following the season and kept him entirely off the league roster last year.  He returned with a vengeance last summer, throwing even harder than he did pre-surgery.  In 15 starts, he compiled a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, striking out 102 in 80 innings.  Still just 27 years old, he’ll add some youth to an otherwise veteran laden rotation.

    The Komodos went with a little bit younger pitcher in the fourth slot.  They selected Guardians righty Tanner Bibee.  Bibee, who just turned 25 a couple days ago, had a very impressive MLB rookie campaign which placed him second in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  He won 10 games with a sub 3.00 ERA (2.98).  He struck out 141 hitters in 142 innings.  He appears poised to become Cleveland’s next great pitching development success story.  The Komodos have the makings of a very strong rotation if they can ever get and keep everyone healthy.  Shane McClanahan will likely miss the entire season and it is unclear when Walker Buehler will return after missing all of last year.  Bibee doesn’t need to be the staff ace though as Framber Valdez is still around too.

    The run of pitchers continued with the Choppers going even younger yet, selecting Marlins 20 year old righty Eury Perez at number five.  Perez made his MLB debut last May, just a month after turning 20.  You would think a towering 6’8″ 20 year old pitcher who throws serious gas would be a walk machine.  But Perez actually has quite good command.  He struck out 108 hitters with just 31 walks in his 91 big league innings.  Again, quite impressive for someone that age.  He was a little home run prone, but that is just picking nits at this point.  The Choppers have a rotation full of interesting options now, but it would behoove them if Blake Snell were to sign with a team relatively soon.

    The streak of starting pitchers extended to four when the Jackalope selected Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez with the sixth pick.  The highly touted Rodriguez had a rough introduction to the big leagues which eventually led to him being demoted back to AAA.  But then he returned to Baltimore as a much more confident and effective pitcher.  He had a 7.35 ERA when he was demoted near the end of May and was able to drop that 3 full points to 4.34 by the end of the season.  He had a 2.58 ERA from the All-Star break on.  This is the first time since 2018 that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on a pitcher.

    With the seventh pick, the Diamond Dogs used the pick they acquired from the Kings in the Bichette trade to add another slugger to the lineup.  Marlins third baseman Jake Burger seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the very few bright spots on the White Sox before they dealt him to Miami.  While Burger was a former first round pick of the Sox, it seemed unlikely he would ever reach the majors after blowing out his achilles tendon twice.  Finally given a chance to play nearly every day last year, he slugged 34 home runs while driving in 80, and actually improved his bat to ball skills hitting over .300 after arriving in Miami.  Burger is on the old side for a DTBL rookie.  He will turn 28 shortly after Opening Day.

    After the momentary pause with the Burger selection, it was back to pitchers with the eighth pick.  The Mavericks selected Dodgers righty, and McHenry, Illinois’ own Bobby Miller.  Safe to say this is the highest pick ever of a McHenry County native in DTBL history.  Miller, with his 99 MPH average fastball, posted very impressive numbers in his first MLB season.  In 124 innings, he struck out 119 with a 3.76 ERA.  He won 11 games pitching for one of baseball’s best teams.  Interestingly, he will essentially be replacing a Dodger legend in the Mavericks rotation.  Clayton Kershaw’s illustrious 15 year career with the Mavericks came to and end this offseason.  Julio Urias is another Dodger gone from the Mavs’ rotation, but I would not call his career quite as illustrious.  Miller will look to continue the Dodger domination for the Mavericks.

    Perhaps a bit of a surprise that he fell this far, the Darkhorses nabbed third baseman Royce Lewis with the ninth pick.  A string of injuries is the only thing that prevented Lewis from joining the ranks of the DTBL years ago.  Still just 24 years old though, he should have plenty of great years ahead of him.  Lewis smacked 15 homers with a .309 average in just 217 at bats last season.  And then he added four more home runs in the Postseason.  Initially drafted and developed as a shortstop, Lewis seems to have found a home at the hot corner where he will join Alex Bregman to form an enviable duo at that position for the Darkhorses.

    The first round wrapped up with the Demigods selecting utility player Spencer Steer, officially a first baseman for this season in the DTBL.  While the Reds haven’t found a permanent positional home for Steer, his bat pretty much ensures he’ll be in the lineup most days.  He hit .271 with 23 homers, 86 RBI and 15 steals last season.  The defending champion Demigods continue to have one of the most balanced rosters from top to bottom, so they could have gone any number of ways with this pick.  Steer will fit in nicely at first base this year and wherever he might wind up down the road.

    On the heels of what was one of the most hyped rookie classes in recent history, and then that ’23 class lived up to the hype in year one, this year’s crop has their work cut out for them.  With five exciting young pitchers in the first round mix this year, perhaps we will see a little more balance though.  Time will tell.

  • 2023 Season Preview: Part I

    Embed from Getty Images We're just a couple days away from the start of the 2023 DTBL season, so it is probably about time I kick off the season preview series.  At risk of undermining this whole process, I feel obligated to highlight just how poor of a job the 2022 preview series did of prognosticating what was to come.  The 2022 projections had the Moonshiners finishing in ninth place.  They won the league.  They had the Mavericks edging out the Darkhorses for the league title.  Those teams finished ninth and eighth respectively.  After such a poor showing, I considered altering my methodology for this season.  However, I ultimately decided against it because I'm not sure it would be worth the effort to make tweaks that may or may not actually help.  This is really just an exercise to highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses of each team entering the season.  It couldn't be clearer that almost any team could win this league in any given season if things go there way.

    So yeah, we're keeping the process the same for 2023.  Just a couple days prior to the start of the draft, I grabbed the FanGraphs Depth Chart projections for this season.  As a reminder, FanGraphs Depth Chart uses two other projection systems:  ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts the numbers based on expected playing time for each MLB team.  So what I do is take those Depth Charts projections for each player and add them to the appropriate team as the draft progresses.  At the conclusion of the draft, I tally up the numbers for each team and scale them to 8,285 plate appearances and 1,220 innings pitched.  All 28 players who are on each team's roster at the conclusion of the draft are included, regardless of position distribution or expected major/minor slot distributions.  I don't want to be in the business of projecting how teams are going to set their lineups.  That said, including stats for all 28 players who will occupy just 23 slots could positively or negatively impact certain teams depending on how those extra spots are distributed.  Just keep that in mind as we go along.  Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that these projections were from early March.  So major injuries that have occurred since then, like Edwin Diaz and Rhys Hoskins, are not reflected in these numbers even though those guys aren't expected to play this season.  I'll point out these situations again in the individual team write-ups.  Finally, at the conclusion of this series, I'll post the full projected standings and team stat totals.

    We start with the two teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.  Interestingly, no teams are projected for fewer than 43 points.  So it wouldn't take too much overachieving on these numbers for these squads to be in the hunt.  And again, keep in mind the Moonshiners were part of this section last year.

     

    Kelly's Cougars

    Category - Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 3rd (8th)
    • Home Runs - 9th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In - 9th (10th)
    • Runs Scored - 10th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases - 8th (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average - 6th (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 6th (6th)
    • Wins - 5th (2nd)
    • Saves - 6th (3rd)
    • Strike Outs - 5th (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points - 9th-T (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 5th (3rd)
    • Total Points - 10th (6th)

    Summary:

    2022 was a disappointing season for the Cougars offense.  Ultimately, it was what kept them from contending for the title because the pitching staff was very good.  These projections show a slight improvement to the offense, but the pitching numbers have dropped to the middle of the pack.  Most of the players expected to fill everyday lineup spots are solid contributors.  But there is a lack of eye-popping projections on the offensive side of things.  Cedric Mullins is the only Cougars hitter with a projected batting PAR over 4.  Next closest is newcomer Jake McCarthy who could be a sneaky great stolen base machine if given enough playing time.  First round pick Bryan Reynolds will join them to lead the way in the outfield.  Salvador Perez remains one of the best offensive catchers in the game and is joined by rookie Shea Langeliers to make an intriguing catching duo.  The infield lacks star power, but has a good bounce back candidate in Ketel Marte and Jose Abreu moving to the cozy confines of Houston should get his power numbers back to normal.  Perhaps what the Cougars need the most is a full, healthy season from Kris Bryant to see exactly what he can do in the thin air of Denver.  The pitching staff is once again led by Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon, the latter of whom will need to get and then stay healthy to match his great '22 numbers.  A return to form for Lucas Giolito would go a long way towards keeping the Cougars among the league's top pitching staffs.  The bullpen should be decent with Ryan Pressly and Scott Barlow firmly entrenched as closers and Seranthony Dominguez, Kendall Graveman and Evan Phillips in the mix for saves and other high leverage work as well.  The Cougars have been stuck in the middle of the standings for the past half decade.  Falling to last place is certainly not how they want to end that streak.

     

    Dan's Diamond Dogs

    Category - Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 5th (7th)
    • Home Runs - 4th (6th)
    • Runs Batted In - 6th (4th)
    • Runs Scored - 5th (7th)
    • Stolen Bases - 7th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average - 9th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 7th (7th)
    • Wins - 10th (8th-T)
    • Saves - 1st (7th-T)
    • Strike Outs - 10th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points - 5th-T (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 9th (10th)
    • Total Points - 9th (10th)

    Summary:

    I'm not sure I would call a last place finish a success, but the Diamond Dogs did exceed their '22 projection by a point and weren't nearly as far behind the pack as expected in their inaugural season.  One could argue positioning themselves to draft Julio Rodriguez with the first pick in the draft was not the worst thing in the world either.  Rodriguez joins an offense that is as star studded as almost any team in the league.  The rest of those stars are on the infield though.  The outfield was a bit barren before Rodriguez's arrival.  His new Mariners teammate Teoscar Hernandez is the next best of the bunch.  The infield is loaded, particularly on the left side.  The shortstop trio of Trea Turner, Bo Bichette and Oneil Cruz is an embarrassment of riches.  Nolan Arenado at third base is a MVP candidate in his own right.  Gleyber Torres will be asked to fill in for Brendan Rodgers who will miss a good chunk of the season.  Behind the dish, Travis d'Arnaud and Danny Jansen are both above average players, but are stuck in time shares with other good catchers for their respective MLB clubs.  In total, the Dogs should have no trouble exceeding their batting point total from last season.  The pitching staff is a bit of a work in progress as they wait for Shane Baz and John Means to return from Tommy John surgery.  Reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara is head and shoulders above the rest of the staff.  Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon and Charlie Morton give them some steady veteran arms to hold things together though.  The bullpen is probably the strength of the team heading into the season, which is interesting considering they finished near the bottom in saves a year ago.  Holdover Josh Hader is joined by second round pick Ryan Helsley and a couple later round picks in Daniel Bard and Jose Leclerc, all of whom are currently projected to lead their teams in saves.  Slowly but surely, the Diamond Dogs are building a solid team.  Ideally, they will take a step forward this season and not pick first in the draft again next year.

  • Back To Basics

    Embed from Getty Images After having written a grand total of just four blog posts in the past eight months, I am aiming to do four or five this week alone.  Most of them will make up our annual DTBL season preview series.  However, before I get to that, I want to do a quick review of the recently completed draft.  The 2022 draft was rather unusual with a majority of the first round picks being pitchers.  This year, things were back to normal.  The first round was comprised of mostly young hitters.  While the beginning of the 2023 DTBL draft was rather predictable, it was also quite interesting.

    The draft kicked off with the Diamond Dogs making the first  pick for the second consecutive season.  Last year, they went a bit off the board in selecting pitcher Shane Baz, a move which backfired quickly as he hurt his elbow soon after the draft and eventually had Tommy John surgery.  This year, the Dogs played it more conventionally, selecting the clear best available player in the draft in outfielder Julio Rodriguez.  Not only was Rodriguez the consensus best available player in this draft, I've seen dynasty rankings that have him #1 among *all* MLB players heading into this season.  He broke into the big leagues with a 28 home run and 25 stolen base season, earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.  It has been quite some time since a player had such a dominant rookie season in both of those categories.  He has true five category star potential and should be a cornerstone for the Diamond Dogs franchise for years to come.

    Speaking of guys with elite power and speed talent, the Mavericks selected shortstop Bobby Witt Jr with the second pick.  Witt also joined the rookie 20/20 fraternity with 20 home runs and 30 steals.  The stolen base aspect of his game will give the Mavericks the only thing they were missing from their extremely potent offense.  Witt is of course the son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, who had a one season stint in the DTBL with the Metros in 1997.

    The first pitcher selected was Spencer Strider by the Darkhorses at #3.  Strider was an under the radar prospect who made his presence felt immediately at the big league level.  He struck out 202 hitters in just 131 innings pitched, while posting a 2.67 ERA and a sub 1.0 WHIP.  Like Rodriguez being the first hitter taken, there was little doubt that Strider would be the first pitcher off the board.

    Strider's Braves teammate, outfielder Michael Harris II was the fourth pick, taken by the Jackalope.  Harris is yet another huge power and speed contributor.  He hit 19 home runs with 20 steals while posting a .297 average.  In almost any other year, he would have been the best five category player available.  Perhaps playing in a loaded Braves lineup does give him the best immediate outlook among these top hitters though.

    The first non-DTBL rookie selected was outfielder Bryan Reynolds.  The Cougars picked him up in the fifth slot.  Reynolds was a surprising drop by the Komodos this winter, but the Cougars were happy to add him to their roster.  He could be an especially nice addition if the Pirates were to trade him to a team that would offer more lineup protection.

    It is almost hard to believe, but prior to this year there had not been a catcher selected in the first round of the draft since 2017 (Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras).  The Choppers ended that drought by choosing Adley Rutschman at #6.  Rutschman had been the #1 prospect in baseball heading into last season according to many publications, and one of the most highly touted catching prospects in modern history.  He had a very good rookie campaign and should give the Choppers a leg up on most of the league at an extremely shallow position.

    The second and final pitcher of the first round was Cristian Javier, selected by the Komodos with the seventh pick.  Javier had a decent stint with the Jackalope back in 2021, but fell off the league roster last year as the Astros kept shuffling him between the rotation and bullpen.  He established himself as an extremely valuable starter last season though, highlighted by his dominant performance in the Astros combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

    The next two picks are the consensus top two prospects in baseball heading into this season, as the others drafted ahead of them have already exhausted their MLB rookie eligibility.  The Demigods took speedy outfielder Corbin Carroll with the eighth pick.  Carroll stole 33 bases across three levels last season.  Oh, he also has pop.  He hit 28 home runs in his '22 minor and major league season.

    Third baseman Gunnar Henderson went to the Kings in the ninth slot.  Corner infield wasn't exactly a position of need for the Kings going into the draft, but they are certainly happy to have Henderson now with Rhys Hoskins out for the year.  Henderson doesn't have quite the same speed as the other hitters picked ahead of him, but he can run a bit and certainly has big league raw power.

    Finally, the defending champion Moonshiners selected catcher MJ Melendez with the last pick of the first round.  Melendez filled in admirably behind the plate for the Royals when Salvador Perez got hurt last summer.  This year, he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield, but should catch often enough to maintain catcher eligibility.  His bat should make him an extremely valuable commodity as long as that remains the case.

    To pull back the curtain a bit on my own draft process, this wound up being as predictable of a first round as I can recall.  Since I had the ninth pick, I had exactly nine guys who I had settled on as potential selections.  As it turns out, only Henderson remained from that list when my pick came up, which made my decision pretty easy.  While I didn't map out exactly which team I expected to take which player, not one of the first round selections was even remotely surprising to me.

    Now it is time to dive into the season preview.  I'm actually hoping to get the first part out later tonight, or tomorrow at the latest.  So be on the lookout for that!

  • 2022 Season Preview: Part II

    Embed from Getty Images In the second part of the 2022 DTBL preview series, we'll take a look at three teams that are projected to finish in the bottom half of the standings.  However, as covered in the first part, this most definitely doesn't mean these teams aren't championship contenders.  What these three teams have in common is that they expose some flaws in my projection system, in different ways.  These projections consider the full 28 player roster at the completion of the draft.  Even players who may be slated to spend most or all of the season off the active roster are counted just as much as the teams' stars.  Team totals are scaled to a target total of 8,285 plate appearances and 1,220 innings pitched.  If a team's extra five players skew more towards a certain position group compared to the rest of the league, this could alter their numbers either positively or negatively.  One of the teams covered below is the only team in the league with three catchers on their roster at the moment.  So they are disproportionally hurt in these projections by having an extra player at the weakest position.  Meanwhile, another team has only one extra hitter, meaning that the guys who will compose their regular lineup are not being offset by as many bench players as other teams.  Just something to keep in mind.  Here are two teams slated to tie for seventh place and another team one spot ahead of them.

     

    Kelly's Cougars

    Category - Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 7th (10th)
    • Home Runs - 10th (7th)
    • Runs Batted In - 10th (3rd)
    • Runs Scored - 10th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases - 5th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average - 4th (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (6th)
    • Wins - 5th (4th-T)
    • Saves - 1st (9th)
    • Strike Outs - 2nd (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points - 10th (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (5th)
    • Total Points - 7th-T (7th)

    Summary:

    The Cougars are the team I mentioned above with three catchers on the roster.  In addition to that, they only have two extra hitters on the roster at the moment.  So catchers make up about 19% of the batting roster compared to more like 12% for most teams.  So it would be reasonable to assume they are capable of much more than these hitting projections suggest.  That said, the offense is clearly their weaker unit.  Perhaps their two most important hitters made moves into and out of Colorado in recent weeks.  Kris Bryant is a decent bet to revitalize his career in the thin air of Denver.  Meanwhile, Trevor Story is moving to the lower altitude of Boston.  Besides those two, the other big change from last year is the addition of first round pick Cedric Mullins who broke out a 30/30 season in 2021, seemingly from nowhere.  Perhaps it is a big ask for a repeat, but a 20/20 season would be rather useful as well.  Salvador Perez had one of the best fantasy seasons from a catcher in league history last year.  His 48 home runs were five more than any other catcher had every recorded in the DTBL.  If he comes close to repeating that, the Cougars will have a huge leg up on the rest of the league.  Jose Abreu continues to produce for them as well.  The Cougars pitching staff has a good chance to be the league's best.  Corbin Burnes, Lucas Giolito and Kevin Gausman were all outstanding a year ago.  They are joined by second round pick Carlos Rodon who is coming off the best season of his career as well.  All four of those pitchers have excellent projections for this season.  Ryan Pressly leads a bullpen that has five guys who are decent bets to lead their respective teams in saves this season.  The other four are Corey Knebel, Scott Barlow, Alex Colome and Lucas Sims.  Even if one or two of them don't pan out, they should have a good chance of finishing at or near the top of the saves category.  This is definitely a championship caliber pitching staff.  The question will be if the veteran led offense can provide enough punch to push them to the top.

     

    Jay's Jackalope

    Category - Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 10th (6th)
    • Home Runs - 5th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In - 6th (10th)
    • Runs Scored - 7th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases - 1st (5th)
    • Earned Run Average - 7th (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio - 6th (4th)
    • Wins - 2nd (8th-T)
    • Saves - 9th (7th)
    • Strike Outs - 4th (4th)
    • Total Batting Points - 7th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 5th (4th)
    • Total Points - 7th-T (8th)

    Summary:

    The Jackalope remain one of the most talent rich franchises in this league.  The problem is that their roster is currently loaded with red flags.  Actually, I should say red crosses as almost literally half the pitching staff is not at full health entering this season.  And their best overall player, Ronald Acuna Jr, also won't play until at least May as he recovers from a torn ACL that cost him a good chunk of last season.  If the Jackalope can somehow scrape together enough healthy bodies, they could be dangerous.  Paul Goldschmidt, Jared Walsh, Anthony Rendon and Adalberto Mondesi make up an impressive group of 1B/3B.  Rendon returning to form is one of the biggest keys for this team.  The middle infield is bolstered with Jonathan India joining Dansby Swanson.  The outfield is young with plenty of potential.  Giancarlo is the star, but Jarred Kelenic and Adolis Garcia will be asked to keep the group above water until Acuna returns.  Unless injuries just become too much to overcome, the Jackalope are a safe bet not to be the league's worst batting team like they were in 2021.  The pitching staff is an absolute MASH unit right now.  Newcomer Garret Crochet was lost for the season with a UCL tear.  His White Sox teammate Lance Lynn will miss the first two months with a knee injury.  It is not certain that Tyler Glasnow will pitch this season.  Luis Castillo will start the season on the injured list too.  That puts almost all of their eggs in Gerrit Cole's basket.  It is imperative that he be one of the best pitchers in baseball if the Jackalope have any chance.  The other starting pitchers they will count on will be Sean Manaea, Tanner Houck, Jordan Montgomery and Triston McKenzie who have had varying levels of success in their careers to date.  The bullpen has a chance to be a real strength for the Jackalope, though maybe not in the saves category.  Raisel Iglesias and Giovanny Gallegos will have to carry them in that category.  But a healthy Luis Severino could give the whole pitching staff a boost as a starter in a relief slot.  The good news for the Jackalope is that in a couple months there will probably be several other teams absolutely ravaged by injuries too.  The question is if they will be able to keep pace with so many guys out early.

     

    Charlie's Thunder Choppers

    Category - Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 8th (5th)
    • Home Runs - 7th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In - 8th (4th)
    • Runs Scored - 8th (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases - 10th (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average - 2nd (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 1st (5th)
    • Wins - 6th (4th-T)
    • Saves - 3rd (3rd)
    • Strike Outs - 1st (5th)
    • Total Batting Points - 9th (2nd-T)
    • Total Pitching Points - 1st (3rd)
    • Total Points - 6th (2nd)

    Summary:

    Last year, the Choppers wound up neck-and-neck with the Kings in the title race pretty much all season, before tailing off a bit down the stretch.  Can they keep it together all the way to the finish line this time?  Their hitters will need to outperform these projections to make that happen.  The Choppers went heavy on pitching in the draft, so their offense remains largely in tact from a year ago when they finished tied for second most batting points.  So a drop to ninth would be pretty disappointing.  The projections show a team without any elite hitters, but a lot of very good ones.  Pete Alonso and Whit Merrifield are easily their best infielders.  D.J. LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo and Jorge Polanco are all solid players, but not great bets to provide huge fantasy value at this stage of their careers.  The outfield is a little deeper with more upside.  Franmil Reyes, Joey Gallo and Kyle Schwarber are all decent picks to lead the league in home runs.  Gallo is particularly interesting now that he will have a full season of aiming for the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium.  The only problem here is that none of these guys can run.  In fact, Merrifield is the only player on the roster projected to steal more than 15 bases.  While the Choppers may not replicate their '21 offensive numbers, they have a great shot of improving upon an already strong pitching staff.  Their first four draft picks were all starting pitchers:  Dylan Cease, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez and Logan Gilbert.  Those four join a staff that already contained three ace level pitchers in Brandon Woodruff, Shane Bieber and Chris Sale.  Sale will miss the first couple months of the season with a rib injury, but they have more than enough depth to cover that.  In fact, no other team has anything even close to this kind of starting pitching depth.  The bullpen should be good enough to protect their status as one of the league's best total pitching staffs.  Emmanuel Clase and Jordan Romano lead the relief crew.  It would be quite shocking if the Choppers aren't near the top of the league in pitching points.  As long as their offense isn't a huge flop, they should once again find themselves in a pennant race this year.  2021 was their highest finish since winning the championship in 1999.  Can they move up one more spot and end that 23 year title drought?

     

  • A Pitcher Takeover

    Embed from Getty Images We are in the midst of the 30th annual DTBL Draft.  With almost three decades of history to draw from, there is a pretty typical pattern in how the first round of the draft plays out.  Normally, a majority of those early picks are young players who made their MLB debut the previous season.  And among those players, the first round tends to skew towards hitters.  Young hitters are generally more projectable than pitchers.  TINSTAAPP (There is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect) is a common refrain in baseball for a reason.  Well, you can throw all of that out when analyzing the 2022 DTBL Draft.

    For the first time since 2003, a majority of the first round picks were pitchers.  The six starting pitchers taken in the first round was a league record, blowing past the previous high of four.  While these pitchers did skew young, they are not all DTBL rookies and even fewer were MLB rookies last year.  This was truly a first round group of ten that did not resemble any previous year's new crop.  Perhaps this is a product of the pandemic shortened 2020 season that saw some position players pushed to the majors due to not having minor league opportunities for development, while pitchers were kept on a more conservative path that led to guys who may have otherwise debuted in '20 being pushed to '21.  But with many of the pitchers drafted in this first round not actually being MLB rookies, who knows?  Probably just a one year oddity.

    The draft started with the Diamond Dogs making their first ever selection after taking over the Beanballers roster.  They chose young right handed starting pitcher Shane Baz.  This was a bit of a surprise, but not because of Baz's pedigree.  Most MLB prospect rankings that have been released this winter have Baz among the top 15 prospects in the game.  And in most cases, he is the top ranked prospect who has already made his MLB debut.  The Rays hurler, stolen from the Pirates as the third piece of the Chris Archer trade, made his debut in late September.  His three regular season starts were impressive enough to earn him a start in the ALDS as well.  The future is bright for Baz.  Unfortunately for the Diamond Dogs, Baz underwent elbow surgery just days after this selection.  The good news is it wasn't a career altering elbow surgery like Tommy John, but rather a cleanup procedure that should just keep him out a few weeks.  He will begin his DTBL career on the injured list though.

    With the second pick, the Komodos took the guy who most people probably expected to go #1, Baz's Rays teammate Wander Franco.  The phenom shortstop had been the #1 ranked prospect for several years before making his much anticipated MLB debut in June.  He proceeded to have a very solid season, hitting .288 with seven home runs, earning him a third place finish in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  While he only stole a couple bases in the big leagues last year, speed is certainly part of his game as well.  He has been touted as a true five tool player.  Having just turned 21 earlier this month, he figures to be a fixture in the Komodos infield for a very long time.

    While Franco was the most highly touted hitter to debut last year, second baseman Jonathan India was the most productive.  The Jackalope selected him with the third pick.  The Reds infielder hit .269 with 21 homers, 69 RBI, 98 runs scored and 12 stolen bases, earning him the National League Rookie of the Year honor.  This marks the fourth straight year that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on an infielder.  This pick feels quite a bit safer than their last similar pick of second baseman Keston Hiura with the fourth pick in 2020.  India should be able to hold down that spot for the foreseeable future.

    The Cougars followed with the breakout star of 2021, making outfielder Cedric Mullins the fourth overall pick.  Mullins still has DTBL rookie eligibility, however, this is not his first time on the league roster.  He was added in 2019, but went undrafted and then unsigned in a very forgettable season.  2021, on the other hand, was rather memorable for Mullins.  He became the latest addition to the 30/30 Club, slugging exactly 30 home runs and stealing exactly 30 bases.  The latter wasn't a huge surprise, but the power seemingly came from nowhere.  He had seven career home runs before last season.  Even if he can't repeat that feat, he still has enormous fantasy potential because of the power and speed combo that so few possess.

    The pitching run began in earnest with the fifth pick that the Demigods used on lefty Robbie Ray.  Ray had a solid run with the Moonshiners from 2017-2019.  But a brutal 2020 knocked him completely out of the league last season.  All he did while away was win the AL Cy Young with a league leading 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 284 strikeouts.  Good call by me removing him from the league roster.  He's back now and should provide an immediate boost to the Demigods pitching staff.

    The Darkhorses selected the pitching breakout star of the year at #6.  Giants righty Logan Webb started his career with a couple mediocre seasons that did not provide much of a hint that he would become the staff ace of one of the best teams in baseball in 2021.  Webb won 11 games with a 3.03 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 148 innings pitched for the Giants last year before becoming a postseason horse with a pair of dominant starts against the Dodgers in the NLDS.  He will play a major role in the Darkhorses retooled rotation that only has two holdovers (Jacob deGrom and Jose Berrios).

    The Moonshiners were just a respectable pitching staff away from being a serious championship contender last year.  They attempted to fix that glaring weakness by selecting young Blue Jays hurler Alek Manoah at pick number seven.  Another highly touted prospect, Manoah did not disappoint in his first big league season.  He had a very respectable 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP along with nine wins and 127 strikeouts.  Given the Blue Jays offensive firepower, he figures to be a solid candidate to win double digit games along with strong numbers in the other three categories.

    We got a brief break from all those pitchers with the Mavericks selecting second baseman Jazz Chisholm with the eighth pick.  Chisholm struggled in his 2020 debut, leaving questions about his ability to hit big league pitching.  Those questions were answered in 2021.  He hit 18 home runs while stealing 23 bases.  Again, that combination of power and speed makes him an exciting fantasy prospect.  Add to that the serious lack of depth at second base right now and you have a player who should be among the league's best at his position.  The Mavericks had to have been thrilled to add a player like him this late in the first round.

    Back to starting pitchers with pick number nine.  The Choppers reacquired a player they had picked up on a whim late in 2020, White Sox righty Dylan Cease.  Cease technically still has DTBL rookie status since he was never placed on the Choppers active roster in 2020.  He was subsequently dropped from the league last year due to his erratic performance in '20.  He finally harnessed his stuff last year though, with an extremely impressive 226 strikeouts in 165 innings, along with a 3.91 ERA and 13 wins.  Still just 23 years old, Cease has the potential to be one of the league's premier strikeout pitchers.

    Rounding out the first round was yet another pitcher who had a great 2021 campaign.  Marlins southpaw Trevor Rogers was never a particularly highly touted prospect.  So his rookie campaign went largely under the radar.  He posted a 2.64 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 133 innings.  That earned him a spot on the NL All-Star roster and a runner-up finish in the NL Rookie of the Year vote.  Rogers joins a Kings staff that led the league in pitching points last year, but was looking for another consistent presence behind Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler.  They now have three of the NL East's best pitchers.

    The run on starting pitchers didn't end in the first round.  Four more were selected in round two and exactly half of the first 22 picks were starting pitchers.  It seems unlikely we will see anything like this in the near future.