We’re just hours away from the real start of the 2025 MLB season, after last week’s two game appetizer in Japan. So it’s probably about time I start the DTBL season preview series. Because I’m so tardy getting started, I’m going to consolidate this down to a three part series, covering nearly half of the teams in this Part I. I intend to get through all ten teams before the end of the weekend.
As usual, I’m going to use outside projections as the guiding light for my team previews. I’ve computed projected standings using FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, which merges two other projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts to expected playing time based on each MLB team’s depth chart. As this year’s draft progressed, it started to occur to me that Depth Charts might not be my best option for this, for reasons that I’m not going to get into right now. I’m just throwing this out here to remind myself to reevaluate next year. One thing I will point out, which is a flaw in my own methodology and not the projections themselves, is that I compiled these player projections a few days prior to the start of the draft. So injuries and other spring training developments this month may not be factored into these numbers. Where especially relevant, I will mention this in the team write-ups. As I say every year, I wouldn’t read into the specific ordinal rankings too heavily. The purpose of this exercise is to get some sense of where each team’s strengths and weaknesses exist, in a largely objective fashion.
Let’s get started. This first part is going to contain previews of the four teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings. I went with four both because I’m trying to consolidate this into one fewer section than in previous years, and also because these four teams are projected to finish extremely close to one another in the standings. Just six points separate the seventh and tenth place finishers in the full projected standings, which I will share in the final article of this series. Meanwhile, the sixth place finisher is double digit points ahead of all of these teams. So if the projected standings are to be believed, which they honestly shouldn’t be, these are the four teams least likely to contend for the league title.
Charlie’s Thunder Choppers
Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)
- Batting Average – 8th (9th)
- Home Runs – 10th (9th)
- Runs Batted In – 10th (8th)
- Runs Scored – 5th (6th)
- Stolen Bases – 2nd (6th)
- Earned Run Average – 9th (6th)
- WHIP Ratio – 8th (2nd)
- Wins – 10th (8th)
- Saves – 4th (6th)
- Strike Outs – 7th (3rd)
- Total Batting Points – 8th (8th-T)
- Total Pitching Points – 7th-T (4th)
- Total Points – 10th (7th)
Summary:
Well, somebody has to be last. As mentioned up top, there really isn’t much separating any of the teams covered in this section. The Choppers happen to wind up with the fewest projected standings points though. Pitching is largely to blame for this, which is a bit surprising since they had an above average staff a year ago and are bringing back pretty much everyone who was responsible for that. Although that also sort of explains the drop in the projections compared to the rest of the league. They did not add any significant pitching pieces, at least on paper. Their first five draft picks were all hitters and they didn’t pick a starting pitcher until the 10th round. So the rotation to start the year figures to be the main five from last year: Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease, Blake Snell, Brian Woo and Taj Bradley. There are a couple wild cards here that could improve things on the pitching side. One would be a strong return from Tommy John surgery from last year’s first round pick Eury Perez, though that probably won’t happen until the second half of the season. The other is the possible emergence of top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe who will begin the season in the Tigers rotation and could eventually give the Choppers a huge boost as an extra starter in a relief pitching slot. The methodology I use for these projections fails to reward teams with extra starting pitchers since all team inning totals are normalized. So if Jobe can stick in the rotation and put up good numbers in the process, that could be a huge boon to the Choppers in several categories, particularly strikeouts and wins. The bullpen should be a strength for the Choppers regardless of how they deploy Jobe. Emmanuel Clase remains one of the best closers in baseball. Kyle Finnegan and Carlos Estevez aren’t at that level, but should be reliable sources for saves. Like the pitching staff, the Choppers infield has a very familiar look to it with Adley Rutschman behind the plate, Pete Alonso at first and CJ Abrams at shortstop leading the way. It is not a flashy group on the whole, but reliable contributors across the board. The outfield is where things look completely different this year. Wyatt Langford, Lawrence Butler and Colton Cowser were all drafted in the first four rounds this month. All three provide power and Langford and Butler add speed to the mix as well. The one returning stalwart in the outfield is Kyle Schwarber. This outfield group is probably where the Choppers are going to need the breakouts to occur to soar past these modest offensive projections. While the Choppers are in the midst of a quarter century title drought, they almost never finish dead last either. That last happened in 2008. So needless to say, expectations are much higher than the numbers thrown out here.
Kelly’s Cougars
Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)
- Batting Average – 10th (7th)
- Home Runs – 7th (7th)
- Runs Batted In – 7th (4th)
- Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
- Stolen Bases – 10th (10th)
- Earned Run Average – 4th (10th)
- WHIP Ratio – 4th (7th)
- Wins – 5th (10th)
- Saves – 9th (10th)
- Strike Outs – 4th (9th)
- Total Batting Points – 10th (8th-T)
- Total Pitching Points – 5th (10th)
- Total Points – 9th (10th)
Summary:
This is the second straight year that the Choppers and Cougars have come out on the bottom of these pre-season projections, so maybe there is something about their team builds that don’t fit well into this model. Although in the case of the Cougars, the last place projection a year ago proved to be correct. There are some signs of significant improvement this year on the pitching side. That’s largely thanks to the arrival of first overall draft pick Paul Skenes. Skenes has the fourth highest projected Pitching PAR in the league, first among rookies. The rest of the rotation is mostly unchanged from last year, with Corbin Burnes and Joe Ryan being the top returners. Besides Skenes, the other reason for improved projections is the expectation that Kevin Gausman will return to form after a disappointing 2024. Seth Lugo could have been a steal in the 10th round of the draft. He had a breakout season last year that actually put him in the thick of the AL Cy Young award race late into the season. It would be very surprising if the Cougars rotation isn’t vastly improved this year. The bullpen remains a question mark though. There are a lot of good stuff, late inning high leverage guys in this group, but only Ryan Walker enters the season with a closer gig locked up. Justin Martinez is a decent bet to contribute saves too. The rest of the relievers are a bit further down the pecking order on their clubs. The projections on the hitting side are not great. Only last year’s breakout star Brent Rooker is pegged to finish over 4 PAR. It is a little surprising that Ketel Marte isn’t at that threshold considering how great of a season he had a year ago. One guy to watch will be middle infielder Matt McLain who the Cougars used a second round pick on last year, but missed the entire season due to a shoulder injury. There is still tremendous upside potential there as a five category stud. The catching duo of Salvador Perez and Shea Langeliers is one of the league’s best pairs. Newcomer shortstop Xavier Edwards should easily lead the team in steals, which could be hard to come by for the rest of the roster. The outfield is a bag of mysteries outside of Rooker and Bryan Reynolds. This group took a hit this week when Nolan Jones was traded away from Colorado back to Cleveland. There are probably too many question marks on the hitting side to expect the Cougars to have an above average offense. So it will be up to Skenes and the rotation to take this team well out of the cellar.
Jay’s Jackalope
Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)
- Batting Average – 6th (8th)
- Home Runs – 6th (8th)
- Runs Batted In – 6th (9th)
- Runs Scored – 6th (7th)
- Stolen Bases – 6th (9th)
- Earned Run Average – 8th (5th)
- WHIP Ratio – 6th (5th)
- Wins – 8th (9th)
- Saves – 10th (7th)
- Strike Outs – 6th (10th)
- Total Batting Points – 6th (10th)
- Total Pitching Points – 7th-T (9th)
- Total Points – 8th (9th)
Summary:
Any hopes the Jackalope had in 2024 quickly died when reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr tore his ACL in late May. Unfortunately for the Jackalope, injuries are already shaping up to be a big part of the story again this season. But let’s start out with some positives. The Jackalope offense looks to be perfectly adequate across the board, projected to finish with more standings points this year in all five batting categories. This is largely thanks to the expected May return of Acuna, although I think the projections are probably a bit too optimistic about the number of plate appearances he will record and bases he will be allowed to steal. The other main boost to the offense is second overall pick Jackson Chourio who figures to be a five category star right from the get-go. Chourio joins an already strong cast of returning outfielders in Acuna, Michael Harris, Anthony Santander, Adolis Garcia and Pete Crow-Armstrong. This is clearly the Jackalope’s strongest position group, putting them up there with any team in the league besides the Mavericks. Cal Raleigh is among the league’s best catchers, but I would not say the Jackalope have superstars at any other infield position. Second round pick Mark Vientos should give them a nice boost at the hot corner though. Where these projections fall apart, and frankly are probably overcooked, is on the pitching side. That’s because I pulled these numbers in early March before it was known there was anything wrong with Gerrit Cole, much less that he will miss the entire season following Tommy John surgery. Cole would be impossible for any team to replace, but especially the Jackalope who are in crisis mode with the health of several other starting pitchers as well. Second round pick Jared Jones also has an elbow injury, which thankfully won’t require surgery at this time, but will probably cost him half the season. Grayson Rodriguez and Ranger Suarez will also start the year on the IL. Amazingly, oft injured Tyler Glasnow is the healthy ace of the staff at the moment. It is going to be tough for the Jackalope to keep afloat with their rotation in shambles to start the season. The bullpen does not appear equipped to pick up the slack either. Raisel Iglesias is the only pitcher on the staff who is a good bet to pick up a significant number of saves. Interestingly, the Jackalope opted to build their bullpen out of high strikeout guys who can perhaps boost the other non-saves pitching categories as well. Not a terrible strategy as difficult as saves can be to project. However, what was unusual about the Jacklope approach is that they picked several of these non-closers in the first half of the draft. One could assume this would have played out differently if they had known what was about to happen to their rotation. At any rate, the Jackalope have a solid offense, easily the best among the teams covered in this section according to the projections. The question is will it matter if they can’t field a full staff of healthy pitchers?
Dan’s Diamond Dogs
Category – Projected Rank (2024 Rank)
- Batting Average – 9th (2nd)
- Home Runs – 4th (5th-T)
- Runs Batted In – 5th (5th)
- Runs Scored – 7th (5th)
- Stolen Bases – 1st (4th)
- Earned Run Average – 10th (9th)
- WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
- Wins – 9th (7th)
- Saves – 2nd (1st)
- Strike Outs – 10th (8th)
- Total Batting Points – 5th (4th)
- Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th)
- Total Points – 7th (5th)
Summary:
We wrap up this segment of the preview series with last year’s most pleasant surprise. The Diamond Dogs followed up three straight last place finishes (two under current ownership) with a very solid fifth place standing. It was a vastly improved offense that was mostly responsible for the boost. That still appears to be the strength of the team heading into this season, with the pitching staff projected for the fewest points in the league. The makeup of the offense is a bit different this year though. These Dogs can run. Seven of them are projected to steal at least 20 bases this year, led by shortstop and reigning Rookie of the Year Elly De La Cruz. Newcomer second baseman Brice Turang and returning star shortstops Trea Turner and Oneil Cruz give the Dogs the fastest middle infield in the league, and a pretty powerful group as well. The outfield has a ton of potential upside. Veterans Teoscar Hernandez and Marcell Ozuna complement superstar Julio Rodriguez. Josh Lowe is someone to watch as a possible breakout star this season, particularly playing half his games in the very left-handed hitter friendly minor league park the Rays will call home this year. Adding to that outfield mix is first round pick Brenton Doyle who also plays in a hitter friendly environment in Denver. Take it to the bank that the Diamond Dogs will lead the league in stolen bases. These projections show a bit of a step backwards in batting average though. Overall, it is a solid offensive squad. The pitching staff will need to exceed the projections for them to take another step forward in 2025. The Dogs did not use any of their early draft capital on the rotation. The good news though is that they are entering this campaign in far healthier form. Returning after missing all of 2024 is Sandy Alcantara. He figures to pick up right where he left off in 2023 as the ace of this staff. Jack Flaherty is the one new piece to the rotation and has the next best projections behind Alcantara. Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt are solid veterans, but not star producers at this stage of their careers. The Dogs could really use breakout seasons from one or both of Shane Baz and Mitch Keller to raise the ceiling of this staff. The bullpen figures to be one of the league’s best again after topping the league in saves a year ago. Josh Hader and Ryan Helsley are back to lead the way, while Ryan Pressley figures to return to a closing role now that he is no longer a teammate of Hader’s in real life. Although the final projection is for the Diamond Dogs to drop a couple places in the standings this season, I would still consider this an arrow up franchise that just needs to get better starting pitching in order to reach contender status.