Archive for the ‘Kings’ Category

Trout Injury Dampens Mood

Saturday, June 3rd, 2017


You never want to see any player lose significant time due to injury, but especially not the elite players who make the game so fun to watch.  So when Mike Trout hit the disabled list earlier this week with a torn ligament in his thumb that figures to sideline him for a couple months, the whole baseball world took a hit.  Obviously, there are ramifications in this league as well.  The Mavericks have held a small but consistent lead almost the entire season so far.  But that will be put to the test in a big way in the upcoming months.  Can a team that was already mediocre offensively tread water long enough until Trout returns?

The list of teams that figure to benefit from this opportunity is long.  In fact, at the 1/3 mark of the season schedule, all ten teams are legitimately still in the race.  Even before Trout went down, the Mavericks weren’t blowing away the competition.  And no team has completely tanked to this point either.  Due to an issue with my stats source, the stats haven’t been updated through Friday’s games yet, so I’m writing this looking at the numbers through Thursday.  At that time, the Mavs held a slim 1/2 point lead on the Naturals and just a point ahead of the Moonshiners as well.  Meanwhile, even the last place Choppers were only 20.5 points behind.  Making up that much ground in four months is certainly doable.

The month of May saw 1,060 home runs hit across MLB, the second highest single month total in history.  Yet, shockingly, the DTBL Batter of the Month went to a guy who hit one measly homer.  But first, here are the guys who won the weekly honors in May.

Batters of the Week:

Week 5 (5/1 – 5/7) – Billy Hamilton, Mavericks
Week 6 (5/8 – 5/14) – Mookie Betts, Kings
Week 7 (5/15 – 5/21) – Corey Dickerson, Gators
Week 8 (5/22 – 5/28) – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 5 (5/1 – 5/7) – Chris Sale, Choppers
Week 6 (5/8 – 5/14) – Zack Greinke, Moonshiners
Week 7 (5/15 – 5/21) – Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks
Week 8 (5/22 – 5/28) – Lance McCullers, Kings

No big surprises on the pitching list as some of the best pitchers in baseball were at the top of their games in May.  Even though pretty much all of the players listed above were strong contenders for Pitcher of the Month, the award went to someone else.  With the exception of Hamilton, the weekly award winners were certainly part of the huge power surge in May.  But as I hinted at earlier, it wasn’t a gaudy home run total that clinched the Batter of the Month honor.  Here are the players of the month for May 2017:

Batter of the Month:

Billy Hamilton, Mavericks
.288 AVG, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 27 R, 18 SB, 3.10 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Max Scherzer, Kings
2.27 ERA, 0.824 WHIP, 3 W, 0 SV, 60 K, 3.19 PAR

Safe to say Hamilton had the green light in May.  He stole 18 bases, which was six more than any other player.  He currently leads the league in steals with 28, which is twice the total of the next highest player!  He is on pace to blow past the DTBL single season stolen base record which is held by Jose Reyes who stole 78 bags in 2007.  Nobody has reached the 60 plateau since 2011, which Hamilton seems close to a lock to achieve, barring injury.  The rest of the offensive numbers were solid in May for Hamilton too.  It will be important for him to keep up the respectable hitting numbers while keeping the Mavericks offense afloat without Trout.  The race for this award wasn’t as close as you might have thought, but the runner-up was Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.

I had to do a double-take when I saw Scherzer atop the May pitching PAR leaderboard.  He had a couple very poor outings in the month, by his standards, including a game I saw in person in Atlanta in which his velocity was down and his command was off.  Yet he rebounded in a big way, striking out 24 batters in his final two starts of the month, one which was a complete game and another that was one out shy of that.  In total, he led the league with 60 strikeouts in the month.  He just barely won this award, edging out Kings teammate Lance McCullers and the Darkhorses’ Carlos Martinez.  This is the second time in three years that Scherzer has won this award in the month of May.

2017 Season Preview: Part IV

Tuesday, April 4th, 2017


Everybody wants to be first… except when it comes to first place in the DTBL season preview series.  In all the years I’ve been doing these projections, no team that has been tabbed as the preseason favorite has ever actually gone on to win the league championship.  On top of that, no team has repeated as DTBL champions since the Darkhorses won a share of their fourth consecutive title back in 2010.  So that’s two trends the Kings will need to buck this season.  While they have received top billing in these projections, it is by the thinnest of margins over the Choppers and not far ahead of the Mavericks and other as well.  Since we are now in day three of the 2017 MLB season, it is time to start focusing on the games at hand.  So here are the final two team previews, for the teams expected to finish at the top of the standings.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 4th (4th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (2nd-T)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (3rd)
  • Wins – 4th (1st)
  • Saves – 1st (5th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Points – 2nd (3rd)

Summary:

Quietly, the Choppers have finished in the top four in the league for four straight seasons.  However, last season was the first time that they were truly in a pennant race in 15 years.  Finishing 2 1/2 points out was their closest margin of defeat since winning their last title in 1999.  This year, they would like to take the final step and win the whole thing.  It would be no surprise if they did just that.  If it weren’t for the Mavericks, we’d be gushing with superlatives for the Choppers pitching staff.  They finished just 1/2 point behind the Mavs in pitching points last season and are only projected to be two points behind them this year.  Chris Sale and Jon Lester will be joined by Danny Duffy to create a dynamic trio of southpaws at the top of the rotation.  Righties Danny Salazar and Masahiro Tanaka aren’t too shabby either.  They are a pretty good bet to lead the league in saves with four very good closers who all have decent job security at the moment (Craig Kimbrel, Ken Giles, A.J. Ramos and Kelvin Herrera).  The Choppers will probably need to beat these batting projections to win the title, however.  It is worth noting though that they are hurt a bit in these numbers by carrying three catchers on their roster, one of whom won’t play until later this summer (Wilson Ramos).  In the draft, they added several proven veterans to their existing cast with the likes of Dustin Pedroia (a re-acquisition), Carlos Gomez and Troy Tulowitzki.  The core of the offense remains Anthony Rizzo, Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista and the defending home run champion, Mark Trumbo.  This is a team loaded with proven hitters.  Can they deliver one more time?  If so, the Choppers have an excellent shot at ending their 18 year championship drought.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd-T)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (2nd)
  • Wins – 8th (4th-T)
  • Saves – 3rd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (3rd)
  • Total Points – 1st (1st)

Summary:

The Kings have proven to be a hard team to project in recent years, in part because the previous season never seems to have any bearing on what will happen next.  The Kings past four finishes:  1st, 6th, 10th, 1st.  So predicting them to finish in the same spot two consecutive years seems like a losing bet.  Yet here we are.  Which Kings offense will we see in 2017?  The one that dominated the league through the All-Star break a year ago, or the one that completely fell apart down the stretch and nearly cost them the title?  The projections lean more towards the former.  They made some key moves to fill the one obvious weakness on offense:  corner infield.  They traded Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for Kyle Seager and used draft picks on Ryon Healy and Victor Martinez.  Reigning MVP Mookie Betts is the main man in a very good outfield that should be able to overcome the loss of Polanco with the return to health by A.J. Pollock.  First round pick David Dahl will join his two Rockies teammates, Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez, in the Kings outfield as well, once all are healthy.  Robinson Cano, Carlos Correa and Aledmys Diaz make up a pretty strong middle infield.  A Kings repeat will likely come down to the pitching staff.  Last year, it was basically a two man show with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  They hope for great years from that duo again, but would like to get more from Marcus Stroman and Jeff Samardzija as well.  The key man in the rotation may be second round pick Lance McCullers, who has put up solid numbers early in his career, but has not been able to stay healthy.  The bullpen features four closers, but only the currently suspended Jeurys Familia would be considered above average.  Repeating their first place finish in saves seems unlikely.  The Kings certainly have the pieces in place to win the championship again this year, but their recent lack of consistency makes them anything but a safe bet.

Posted below are the full projected standings.  These numbers point to an extremely tight race, particularly at the top of the standings.  It would be very easy to make a case for any of the top five teams to win the title, and even beyond that, there are reasons for hope.  It should be an extremely entertaining season.  So, to paraphrase Hawk Harrelson, it is time to sit back, relax and strap it down.  The 2017 DTBL season is upon us!

Story-book Beginning

Monday, March 20th, 2017


Thought to be a weaker than usual draft class, at least compared to the past few seasons, there was still no shortage of young potential superstars taken in the first part of the 2017 DTBL Draft.  The 25th version of this pre-season ritual kicked off Thursday, March 9.  The Cougars decided to start things with a Story, Trevor Story to be exact.  What followed in the first round was the typical parade of youngsters, this year mostly dominated by hitters.  But there were a couple intriguing pitchers selected as well.  Potential tends to trump proven performance in the early stages of this league’s drafts, but that was especially the case this year as a player who will likely start the season in the minors was among the first five players taken.  I don’t recall that ever happening before.  Here’s a recap of how the first round went down.

The Cougars kicked things off with perhaps the surest thing among this DTBL rookie class.  A year ago at this time, Trevor Story was earning his spot as the Rockies starting shortstop, despite not yet having made his MLB debut.  It didn’t take long for him to make an impression though.  He cruised his way through his first four months in the big leagues, slugging 27 home runs with 72 RBI and a .272 average.  He appeared to be a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year award.  But then he tore a ligament in his thumb and missed the final two months of the season.  Nonetheless, he appears to be a safe bet as a major power contributor at a premium position playing in the hitters paradise in Denver.  He was pretty close to a no-brainer selection for the Cougars who finished dead last in homers last year.

The Jackalope followed by selecting another slugger who wasted no time making an impression in the big leagues.  Despite not making his season debut until August, catcher Gary Sanchez slugged his way to being the runner up for AL Rookie of the Year.  In just 53 games, Sanchez hit 20 home runs while posting a .299 average.  Sanchez should immediately become one of the best fantasy catchers in the league, and considering how shallow the talent pool is at that position, could be irreplaceable for the Jackalope for some time to come.  Sanchez going second was easily the earliest selection of a catcher since Buster Posey was the first overall pick in 2011.

On paper, this appeared to be a hitter heavy draft, with no pitchers as obvious selections at the top of the draft.  But the Gators were in serious need of pitching help and believe they found a potential ace in Aaron Sanchez.  Sanchez is technically not a DTBL rookie, having debuted as a relief pitcher for the Naturals in 2015.  But last year was his first chance to earn his stripes as a starter and it went quite well.  He won 15 games with a 3.00 ERA, marks that exceeded all Gators starters last year.  He will join Jose Quintana in hopes of improving the league’s worst pitching staff of a season ago.

Like Sanchez, the fourth overall selection is also not a DTBL rookie.  The Moonshiners picked shortstop Jonathan Villar, who prior to 2016 had been a fantasy and real-life afterthought.  The Brewers picked him up from the Astros in exchange for a low level minor leaguer.  In Villar’s three seasons in Houston, he hit a total of 10 home runs and never topped 18 steals in a season.  Then he showed up in Milwaukee and slugged 19 homers with a MLB leading 62 stolen bases in 2016.  From cast-off to one of the most valuable fantasy players in the entire league.  It is hard to know for sure if last season was the new normal for Villar, but if he even comes close to reaching those numbers again, this will be a great pick by the Moonshiners.  Villar went hitless in 17 at bats for the Naturals way back in 2014, yet he is still just 25 years old.

The fifth pick was unquestionably the biggest risk/reward selection of the first round.  The Naturals went with the White Sox newly acquired phenom Yoan Moncada.  A third baseman for this season, he will likely shift to 2B in the future.  Moncada was the main piece of the winter blockbuster that sent Chris Sale from Chicago to Boston.  For service time and development reasons, Moncada is unlikely to begin the season in the majors.  But he is regarded as either the best or second best prospect in the game, depending on the publication.  He has impressive power and speed, making him an incredibly intriguing fantasy asset.  The Naturals have had success with taking chances on top prospects.  Just last year, they took Trea Turner despite knowing he would begin the year in the minors. That certainly paid off.  Of course, that was an eighth round pick, not fifth overall.  So there is tremendous risk with this selection as well, but the payoff could be huge.

The next two picks were guys with similar lofty prospect pedigrees to Moncada, but who have proven themselves a little more in the big leagues.  The Darkhorses were probably extremely surprised to be able to draft third baseman Alex Bregman with the sixth pick in the draft.  Although not a position of need for them, Bregman’s talent was far too enticing to pass up.  Despite getting off to a very rough start upon promotion, Bregman rebounded nicely to hit .264 with eight homers and 34 RBI in just 49 games.  He figures to anchor the hot corner for the Darkhorses and Astros for some time to come.

While many publications have Moncada ranked as the top prospect in baseball, others give the nod to his former Red Sox teammate, outfielder Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi can flat out hit.  He had a solid big league debut, which led to him being a starter for the Red Sox in the post-season, just a month into his big league career.  The Mavericks will add him to their impressive stable of young talent.

The eighth pick featured the second pitcher of the draft.  The Choppers selected Royals lefty Danny Duffy.  Duffy was once a highly touted prospect, but had only a modest track record before last season.  But he is now the unquestioned ace of the Royals staff.  He struck out 188 batters in 180 innings with an impressive 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  The Choppers now lay claim to three of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball:  Duffy, Chris Sale and Jon Lester.

The first round of the previous two DTBL drafts featured three Cubs.  This year, just one.  With the ninth pick, the Demigods took Cubs catcher Willson Contreras.  Contreras also started hitting immediately upon promotion.  He hit .282 with 12 home runs in 76 games.  He immediately earned regular time, both behind the plate and in the outfield, for a team loaded with talent.  He will join Buster Posey to create an enviable catching duo for the Demigods.

The Kings ended the first round the way it started, with a Rockie.  The defending champions selected outfielder David Dahl.  Dahl was a candidate to be selected earlier in the round, but probably fell a bit due to a rib injury that he continues to nurse.  He will almost certainly begin the season on the disabled list.  However, it is hard to pass up on a power/speed guy who plays half his games in Colorado.  Dahl hit .315 with seven home runs and five stolen bases in 63 big league games.

There were not any trades involving first round picks, but there was one deal completed during the first round and two more in the second.  Here is a brief summary of those deals.  The Kings traded promising young outfielder Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for established star third baseman Kyle Seager.  The primary motivation for the Kings was to clear a bit of space in their crowded outfield (and eventually led to their interest in picking Dahl) while acquiring a proven commodity at a weak spot on their roster.  Meanwhile, the Moonshiners added a much needed potential young star in Polanco.  He and Villar could immediately become their best offensive players.

The Moonshiners were not done dealing, however.  They also sent their long time star second baseman Ian Kinsler to the Jackalope for a second round pick (12th overall).  That pick was used to select promising young closer Edwin Diaz.  Kinsler spent ten impressive years with the Moonshiners and will now help solidify the Jackalope middle infield.

Finally, the third trade of the early portion of the draft sent Odubel Herrera from the Naturals to the Demigods for the Demigods’ second round pick (19th overall).  The Naturals used that pick on shortstop Jose Peraza.  Herrera gives the Demigods another power/speed guy who fills a major need for outfield depth.

In summary, the first round featured eight DTBL rookies, two who still have MLB rookie eligibility (Moncada and Benintendi), and nine guys who are 25 or younger (all but Duffy).  While there may not have been as many top level certain superstars in this draft, there was still an impressive infusion of young talent.

Betts is Best

Friday, November 25th, 2016


2016 was a year of offensive resurgence. There were over 3,000 home runs hit in the DTBL, with the highest league wide total since 2001, which was the heart of the steroid era. The cumulative batting PAR (which will be adjusted this winter) reached an all-time high for years I’ve calculated (2009-present). Many players contributed to this surge, but nobody more so than Kings outfiedier Mookie Betts. The second year player led the Kings to another DTBL Championship. In a surprisingly decisive vote, Betts has won the 2016 DTBL Most Valuable Player award.

Betts led his championship squad in almost every offensive category. Only his 31 home runs weren’t enough to lead the Kings. He hit .318 with 113 RBI, 122 runs and 26 stolen bases. He was a true five category performer. His run total was second in the league, just one behind Mike Trout. He finished on the leaderboard in batting average, RBI and stolen bases as well. He edged out Trout for highest batting PAR, finishing at 10.9. That is the highest total calculated to date (again, PAR numbers only go back as far as 2009), although this will likely be recalculated down a bit this winter. But no matter how you slice it, Betts had one of the best seasons in recent DTBL history.

The Kings selected Betts with the fifth pick in the 2015 Draft. That was a strong draft class, but so far, Betts appears to be the cream of the crop, at least among offensive players. He had a solid rookie campaign, accumulating 18 home runs and stolen bases and finished eighth in the ROY vote a year ago. But he made huge strides this season in every category. In his two year career, he is a .305 hitter with 49 home runs and 44 stolen bases.

If you are surprised that Betts won this award despite finishing behind Trout in the AL MVP vote, the explanation is pretty simple. Trout’s advantage over Betts in that vote was primarily due to skills that don’t apply to fantasy baseball, particularly plate discipline and position scarcity (CF vs. RF). Both are elite five tool players, however.

In a bit of a surprise, this vote was not particularly close. Betts received nine of the ten first place votes, along with a third, for a total of 95 points. The Mavericks’ Trout received a single first place vote and was on all ten ballots, but those votes were scattered. He finished with 59 points, which was actually closer to third and fourth place than first. In addition to Betts and Trout, Demigods second baseman Jose Altuve was also on all ten ballots. Altuve looked like the favorite for this award at times this season, but faded a bit down the stretch. He came in third place with 38 points. Right behind him is Naturals third baseman Nolan Arenado who accumulated 35 points. Arenado lacked the stolen bases of the three who finished ahead of him, but made up for it with power. Finishing fifth is the NL MVP and DTBL Rookie of the Year, Cougars third baseman Kris Bryant. Bryant’s MVP profile wasn’t quite as strong in fantasy as it was in real baseball, which explains him finishing well behind four others.

Click here to view the full MVP voting results.

One final tidbit: this is the second straight year that both the MVP and Cy Young awards have been won by members of the championship team. It is not a surprise that the best performers were members of the best teams. But this year, you can definitely point to the contributions of Betts and Max Scherzer as primary factors in the Kings winning the title.

There will be more content this off-season, but in the meantime, enjoy the rest of Thanksgiving weekend and have a great winter!

Cy Young to the Max

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2016


The Kings did not have a very strong pitching staff, top to bottom. Yet they finished with an impressive 37.5 pitching points on their way to a DTBL Championship. It took a couple pitchers having elite seasons for them to reach that mark. Perhaps more so than any other player, Max Scherzer was hugely responsible for the Kings winning their sixth league title. In a unanimous decision, Scherzer is the 2016 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

Scherzer was the DTBL’s lone 20 game winner. He also led the league in strikeouts with a career high 284. In fact, that total was 33 more than any other pitcher. That strikeout edge was the primary reason why he also led the league in pitching PAR at 13.2. His 2.96 ERA and 0.968 WHIP were also among the top five in the league. In a season that saw the era of pitching domination come to an abrupt end, Scherzer continued to baffle hitters.

The Kings acquired Scherzer in a trade from the Jackalope back in 2010. Six years later, that trade continues to pay major dividends. Not coincidentally, his two best seasons have come during Kings championship campaigns. His 2016 numbers were nearly identical to the numbers he posted in 2013, when he finished second in the Cy Young vote. He won 21 games in ’13 with a slightly lower ERA compared to this year. However, his ’16 WHIP and strikeout numbers were better. For his career, he has won 111 games (all but two coming as a member of the Kings) with an impressive 3.27 ERA and 1,546 strikeouts. This is Scherzer’s first Cy Young award. As mentioned, he finished second in the 2013 vote and came in fourth place a year ago.

Although there were several other pitchers who had great seasons, Scherzer was the clear choice for this award. He received all ten first place votes. After him, there were a slew of pitchers who received strong consideration and finished very close to one another in the vote. Cougars lefty Madison Bumgarner wound up finishing second, despite not appearing on two ballots. He garnered three second place votes and 42 total points. Besides Scherzer, the only other pitcher to appear on every ballot was the Choppers’ Jon Lester. Lester only received two second place votes though, causing Bumgarner to finish two points higher. Yet another southpaw finished fourth, Mavericks ace Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw was a difficult case for voters to consider because he missed significant time due to a back injury. Yet he still wound up finishing second in pitching PAR and had unbelievable numbers across the board. This almost certainly would have been his third Cy Young win had he stayed healthy. It was his sixth straight season finishing in the top four of the vote, but his lowest finish since not receiving votes in 2010. Rounding out the top five is another key piece of the Kings championship team, veteran Justin Verlander. I can’t wait to see what kind of backlash we receive from Kate Upton for voting Verlander fifth. It was also a strong year for relief pitchers, but it continues to be difficult for them to get much consideration for this award. Kenley Jansen did receive a second and third place vote, however.

Click here to view the full voting results.

There wasn’t a whole lot of drama with the Cy Young award, but the Most Valuable Player race figures to be much more competitive. Check back on Friday to find out who will be the 2016 DTBL MVP.

Kings Reign Again

Thursday, October 6th, 2016


With three weeks to go in the season, the Kings held a 9 1/2 point lead over the Demigods and Mavericks and appeared to be headed to an uneventful coronation as league champions.  But then the wheels fell off.  Just two days later, the lead was down to five points.  With exactly two weeks remaining, it was cut down to a point.  On September 20, not only did they relinquish first place, but they found themselves all the way down to fourth and headed in the wrong direction.  However, the standings were so close in so many categories, that any of four teams had nearly identical odds of finishing on top.  When it was all said and done, the Kings picked up a much needed half point on the final day, which wound up being their margin of victory over the Demigods.  For a growing record sixth time, Kevin’s Kings are the DTBL Champions.

This league has seen some pretty incredible finishes in its history and this season’s pennant race has to be near the top of that list.  However, the excitement that normally would have been felt in a four team sprint to the finish line had a bit of a somber tone this year as tragedy struck the baseball world with just a week to go in the season.  Miami Marlins and Demigods young ace Jose Fernandez was killed in a boating accident on September 25.  I don’t have much to add that hasn’t already been said about what a joy it was to watch Fernandez pitch and how deeply he will be missed by virtually all baseball fans.  Perhaps I will take some time to write some of my own thoughts about Fernandez during the off-season.  But for now, I would be remiss not to mention how major of an impact his passing had on this league’s title race.

The Kings won the league by 1/2 point.  Although there were a whole bunch of categories that could have swung the title in a different direction, the place where the Kings gained their margin of victory on the final day was in wins.  Max Scherzer won his league high 20th game for the Kings that final afternoon, moving them out of a tie with the Mavericks and into a tie with the Moonshiners in that category.  Scherzer recorded the win, despite giving up five runs.  His opponent?  Fernandez’s Marlins.  Impossible to know for sure what the Marlins would have done with their rotation in the final week without the tragedy, but it is very possible that Fernandez could have been Scherzer’s opponent that day.  And he probably would not have given up five runs, since he rarely ever did.  One more win for Fernandez in either of two potential starts in the final week would have given the Demigods their first ever DTBL Championship.

So some of the thrill of victory was drained from the Kings, knowing things very well could have ended differently.  But the Kings are not undeserving champions.  They dominated the league for a good portion of the season, despite having to hang on by a thread down the stretch.  Oh, and how did I make it this far without mentioning that this same team finished dead last a year ago?  Believe it or not, this is not the first time a team has turned that trick in this league.  The Darkhorses won their first championship in 2007, a year after finishing at the bottom.  The Kings are just three years removed from their last title, but it was two pretty ugly seasons in between.

Despite holding onto first place almost the entire year, it really was a roller coaster season for the Kings, particularly when you break things out between hitting and pitching.  They cruised to a large lead in the first half on the back of the league’s best offense (at the time).  On July 1, they held 47 of a possible 50 batting points, and had huge leads in the power categories.  Meanwhile, the pitching staff was average at best and was at the bottom of the league in ERA.  But then in July, the tables turned and the offense started to leak oil while the pitching staff was firing on all cylinders.  Although it wasn’t until September that they really started coughing up batting points, their leads in most offensive categories had been shrinking for months.  But fortunately for them, the pitching staff was awesome down the stretch and carried them home.  In the end, they finished second in the league in batting points, just one behind the Demigods, and third in pitching points, two behind the leading Mavericks.  So it was a very solid team in all phases, though not nearly as dominant as they once seemed.

Two players led the way for the Kings and figure to be among the top candidates for the top two post-season awards:  Mookie Betts and Max Scherzer.  Each led the league in PAR, among hitters and pitchers respectively.  Betts had an all-around awesome season, hitting .318 with 31 homers, 113 RBI, 122 runs and 26 stolen bases.  He was on the top ten leaderboard in all of those categories, except homers.  He also led the Kings in those four categories and blew away the rest of his teammates in accumulating a 10.85 PAR.  Meanwhile, Scherzer was also in the top ten in four categories.  He led the league with 20 wins and 284 strikeouts.  His 0.97 WHIP ranked second and he was seventh in ERA at 2.96.  His season was right up there with another season in which he helped the Kings win a title, 2013, for tops of his career.  Without either of these players, the Kings would have had no chance.

There were other important contributors too though, including some of their veteran stars who were mostly disappointing a year ago.  Robinson Cano may have had the best season of his impressive career, following two very pedestrian campaigns.  Similarly, Ian Desmond rebounded from a rough ’15 to become one of the most valuable middle infielders in the league once again (his final year as a shortstop in this leauge).  Jonathan LuCroy and Jay Bruce had much more productive, healthier seasons as well.  Carlos Gonzalez didn’t have one of his better years, but was a major contributor as well.  Finally, youngsters Carlos Correa and Gregory Polanco had good years too.

On the pitching side, the other player besides Scherzer who was key to the Kings success was Justin Verlander.  Once considered the best pitcher in baseball, the past few years have been pretty rough for Verlander.  But this year, he appeared to be back to his old form, winning 16 games with 244 strikeouts, which were his highest marks in those categories since 2012.  Had the Kings not been so deplete of apparent talent last winter, Verlander may not have even been retained.  But fortunately for the Kings, he was still around for 2016.  The rest of the rotation was not very impressive, which just goes to show how great Scherzer and Verlander were to lead the Kings to 37.5 pitching points.  The bullpen led the league in saves, thanks mostly to Jeurys Familia and his league leading 51.  That was the fifth highest single season save total in league history and hasn’t been exceeded since 2004.  Francisco Rodriguez and Santiago Casilla racked up plenty of saves too, despite mediocre peripherals.

So how does a team go from last place to first without making any major roster shakeups outside of the draft?  Well, first of all, the Kings were not your typical last place team a year ago.  As you may recall, the bottom six teams in the league were all within seven points of each other last year.  So the Kings weren’t really *that* bad in 2015.  The blueprint they used was to make smart draft choices while banking on veterans with proven track records to bounce back to career norms.  Perhaps a dangerous strategy if those veterans were truly over the hill, but in this case, their trust was rewarded.  And of course, as is the case for almost all champions, the Kings had a bit of luck on their side.  Not only because of several tight category battles going their way, but some major derailments suffered by other teams.  I’ll cover those in greater detail in my next article.

The Kings have now won six DTBL Championships in 24 years, exactly one quarter of the league’s seasons.  No other franchise has won the league more than four times.  There are other franchises that have been more consistently among the league’s elites, but nobody has been better at winning it all.

Coming up next, I’ll examine the three teams who came within an eyelash of stealing this title from the Kings.  All three had spectacular, fascinating seasons that came up just short.

Kings Lead Widens

Monday, September 5th, 2016


The Kings have been in first place for a majority of the season, but things were getting a little too close for comfort in early August as the Mavericks and Demigods were in hot pursuit.  They even briefly surrendered the top spot.  But in the last few weeks, they have built up a more comfortable lead once again.  As September hit, the lead was up to 9  1/2 points, though that has dropped down to 6 1/2 as of today.  The race is far from over, but the Kings are definitely in the driver’s seat.

It has pretty much been a three team race since the All-Star break.  A month ago, the Demigods may have actually been the presumed favorite just because the Kings and Mavericks were fighting through some serious injury problems.  This is still a major problem for the Mavericks, who haven’t been able to field a full, healthy rotation since June.  The Kings injuries were mostly on the offensive side as they seemed to suffer a new ailment every day in late July.  But things have been patched up recently and they continue to field the league’s best offense.

At first glance, the Kings simply don’t seem to have a championship caliber pitching staff.  But two of their long time aces have really stepped up of late:  Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  Those two guys have led the Kings into the top half of the league in pitching points, which seemed like an unreachable goal as recently as a month ago.  The Kings are still dead last in ERA, yet are in the top three of every other pitching category, which is a little strange to say the least.  But this pitching resurgence has pushed the Kings back up to the 80 point mark in the standings.  If they can hold onto that, they should be able to finish off the improbable worst to first turnaround.

This race is far from over though.  The Kings are extremely vulnerable in a whole bunch of categories, especially on the pitching side.  The Demigods are the closest competition at the moment.  All year, they have looked like the most balanced team, and as mentioned earlier, some might have considered them the favorite when the Kings and Mavericks were losing players left and right.  The Demigods have possibly been the healthiest team in the league.  But now they need to go on a run to get back into the race for their first championship.

Perhaps the team most worth watching in the final month is the Mavericks.  In some ways, it is quite remarkable that they are still in this race despite losing basically their entire rotation for significant portions of the season.  But the band is going to start coming back together this week as Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw are expected to make their returns from the disabled list.  It shouldn’t take long for the Mavericks to gain points in pitching categories with those two back in the lineup.

Finally, the Choppers and Darkhorses aren’t completely eliminated yet, but will need to get hot in a hurry to get back in the race.  Four weeks to go.  Will the Kings become the DTBL’s first six time champion?  Here are the award winners for August 2016.

Batters of the Week:

Week 18 (8/1 – 8/7) – Brandon Phillips, Cougars
Week 19 (8/8 – 8/14) – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars
Week 20 (8/15 – 8/21) – Kris Bryant, Cougars
Week 21 (8/22 – 8/28) - Josh Donaldson, Jackalope

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 18 (8/1 – 8/7) – Kyle Hendricks, Moonshiners
Week 19 (8/8 – 8/14) – Rick Porcello, Darkhorses
Week 20 (8/15 – 8/21) - Ian Kennedy, Cougars
Week 21 (8/22 – 8/28) - David Price, Naturals

It was a weirdly strong month for players on the non-contending teams.  Not one of the weekly awards went to a player on one of the top four teams.  The last place Cougars had three different hitters and a pitcher take home weekly honors.  This carried over to the monthly awards as well, which were won by teammates from a non-contender.  Here are the DTBL monthly award winners for August 2016:

Batter of the Month:

Brian Dozier, Moonshiners
.302 AVG, 13 HR, 27 RBI, 27 R, 3 SB, 3.23 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Kyle Hendricks, Moonshiners
1.28 ERA, 0.780 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 3.36 PAR

The month of August saw the Moonshiners creep up the standings a little bit, no longer in serious danger of finishing dead last for the first time in franchise history.  The August surge was largely due to the month’s top two players:  Brian Dozier and Kyle Hendricks.  Dozier is having a career year, already surpassing his previous season highs in home runs and RBI.  In August, he led the league in home runs with 13 and was near the top in RBI and runs, with 27 apiece.  The Moonshiners offense has been carried most of the season by their two second basemen, Dozier and Ian Kinsler.  A whole host of other hitters challenged for the monthly award, with Nolan Arenado as the closest competition.

In an absolutely loaded rookie class, one player has gone largely overlooked, until now.  Kyle Hendricks has been the most surprising star of the Cubs magical season, making a run at Jake Arrieta for the title of ace of the staff.  He has unquestionably been the ace of the Moonshiners staff, a rotation containing former Cy Young winners Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke and Dallas Keuchel.  Hendricks was the pretty clear winner of the August honor, but Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello had great months as well.

MLB Trade Recap

Thursday, August 4th, 2016


The DTBL trade deadline is still a week and a half away (August 15). We have not seen any deadline activity yet, but that could certainly change. In the meantime, there were plenty of players changing teams in the days leading up to the MLB non-waiver deadline this past Monday afternoon. In fact, it would take way too long for me to analyze them all in this space. So instead, I’m going to focus on trades that involved players from the three teams who appear to be the top title contenders in this league this year. Could any of the MLB player movement create a major shakeup in the DTBL championship race?

Let’s start with the biggest offensive name that changed teams this past week. Kings catcher Jonathan LuCroy opted to enact his limited no trade clause to veto an agreed upon deal that would have sent him to Cleveland. Instead, he was later traded to Texas. Either would have probably been a good outcome for the Kings, but having him inserted into the middle of the Rangers potent lineup and into the hitters paradise of Arlington, Texas could certainly pay huge dividends. This is especially nice for the Kings since he will get to play a full season in Texas next year as well.

LuCroy wasn’t the only Kings slugger on the move. Outfielder Jay Bruce was dealt to the Mets. Although he is moving to a much better team, I’d call this a net loss for the Kings. He’ll have a much tougher time hitting home runs in Citi Field compared to the bandbox in Cincinnati. Also, the Mets offense has been pretty anemic of late, which could hamper his chances of remaining one of the league’s top run producers. Josh Reddick is another Kings hitter who was traded, from Oakland to the Dodgers. I wouldn’t expect that to be a needle mover though.

The second place Demigods had a few guys change teams as well. Carlos Beltran is joining LuCroy in Texas. He will no longer benefit from the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium, but again, moving into the Rangers lineup is a good thing. The enigmatic Matt Kemp was shipped from San Diego to Atlanta in one of the more curious deadline deals. He has actually had a pretty respectable season so far, but there is no telling what this change of scenery will do for him.

There were a bunch of moving pieces in the Demigods bullpen. Will Smith was traded from Milwaukee to San Francisco and Tyler Clippard moved from Arizona back to his original franchise, the Yankees. I don’t have much to say about those two moves. More interesting is how a trade that didn’t involve a Demigods player will impact their bullpen. Mark Melancon is gone from Pittsburgh, leaving the closing job to Tony Watson for now. So that’s nice, although he is now the only Demigods closer with Trevor Rosenthal losing his job before hitting the DL. The Demigods currently sit 30 saves behind the next worst team. So Watson getting save opportunities is nice, but won’t have any impact on their league standing.

Finally, we have the Mavericks. Only two of their players were traded, but they were two big ones: Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. Really, the bullpen has been the main reason why the Mavericks have remained in the title race despite being absolutely decimated by injuries, especially to their vaunted starting rotation. The Yankees trio of Miller, Chapman and Dellin Betances put up staggering numbers, despite only one of them actually getting to close games. But now, they could be even better apart. Chapman will continue to get loads of save opportunities with the Cubs while Betances inherits that role for the Yankees. Miller probably won’t get many save opportunities in Cleveland, but you never know. There is definitely an opportunity for the Mavericks to pick up a few key points in the saves category down the stretch while their relievers continue to carry the staff in basically every pitching category, except wins. This remains the best bullpen in the league, by far.

We’ll have to wait and see if any DTBL trades are made in the next 10 days. In the meantime, here are the award winners for July 2016.

Batters of the Week:

Week 13 (6/27 – 7/3) – Kris Bryant, Cougars
Week 14 (7/4 – 7/10) – Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope
Week 15 (7/11 – 7/17) – Khris Davis, Moonshiners
Week 16 (7/18 – 7/24) – Hanley Ramirez, Mavericks
Week 17 (7/25 – 7/31) – Mitch Moreland, Gators

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 13 (6/27 – 7/3) - Scott Kazmir, Gators
Week 14 (7/4 – 7/10) – Madison Bumgarner, Cougars
Week 15 (7/11 – 7/17) – Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses
Week 16 (7/18 – 7/24) - Scott Kazmir, Gators
Week 17 (7/25 – 7/31) – Justin Verlander, Kings

Scott Kazmir picked up two weekly awards in July, which would seemingly make him the top candidate for the monthly award, although the first week was actually split between June and July. But in the end, a pair of Kings won this month’s hand. Here are the monthly award winners for July 2016:

Batter of the Month:

Mookie Betts, Kings
.368 AVG, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 15 R, 5 SB, 1.68 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Justin Verlander, Kings
1.69 ERA, 0.891 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 48 K, 3.34 PAR

Those numbers from Mookie Betts are solid, but don’t come anywhere near the usual level of our monthly award winners. It was a very unusual month on the hitting side. A ton of guys put up very good numbers in July, but nobody was truly spectacular. Betts’ 1.68 PAR is about half of what it usually takes to win this award. Jose Altuve, Albert Pujols and Josh Donaldson were all just a hair behind Betts, with PARs over 1.6. On my first calculation, the award actually was set to go to Justin Turner. However, he was not active until the 4th of July, so I had to recalculate his total. Missing those three days dropped him out of the top five.

Justin Verlander, on the other hand, won the pitching award pretty easily. It was by far the best month he has had in several years. He led the league with 48 strikeouts while maintaining an excellent ERA and WHIP with four wins. He has managed to move into the top ten of the league in PAR for the season, despite a pretty shaky start to the season. A distant second and third were Stephen Strasburg and J.A. Happ. Strasburg’s month was especially impressive considering he started it on the DL. Verlander is the second straight Kings pitcher to take home the monthly pitching award (Max Scherzer in June), which is interesting since the Kings have been holding onto first place despite a decisively mediocre pitching staff.

Baseball’s Power Surge

Saturday, July 2nd, 2016


For most of the past six seasons, pitchers have been dominating hitters more than at any other point in league history.  ERA, WHIP, AVG and HR have all been at record lows in recent years while strikeouts have skyrocketed.  However, there are signs that some of that is starting to change.  Since we are almost exactly at the halfway mark of the season, it is pretty easy to look at the league stats and see what pace we are on in certain categories.  One category sticks out in a big way:  home runs.  Through Friday, there have been exactly 1,500 home runs hit in the DTBL this season.  So we are on pace to reach approximately 3,000 homers for the season, a mark which has not been reached since 2004.  The pace in other offensive categories isn’t as dramatically different, but it still seems likely that 2016 will be the best offensive season since at least 2012 and possible a lot further back than that.

Home runs are way up.  RBI and runs are up slightly.  But interestingly, batting average and WHIP are right in line with recent seasons and strikeouts continue to be at all time highs.  So what does this mean?  It appears to me that whatever offensive resurgence that is currently occurring in baseball is almost exclusively the result of the increase in home runs.  Looking outside of the DTBL to MLB as a whole, the current home run per team, per game rate is 1.15.  This is a huge increase over 1.01 from last season, and if it holds up, would be the highest season mark since 2000.  I’m not going to offer any theories for the increase in home runs.  But the affects have been dramatic.

So the 2016 season is basically half over.  The Kings continue to lead, but they did not have a very good June.  The Demigods have had two great months in a row and are now just four points out of first.  The Mavericks are also in close striking distance, but are currently dealing with a whole host of injuries, most notably Clayton Kershaw, but several other key players as well.  The Darkhorses were probably the team that had the best month, moving into the top half of the standings.  Here are the award winners for June 2016.

Batters of the Week:

Week 9 (5/30 – 6/5) – Mookie Betts, Kings
Week 10 (6/6 – 6/12) – Xander Bogaerts, Darkhorses
Week 11 (6/13 – 6/19) – Josh Donaldson, Jackalope
Week 12 (6/20 – 6/26) – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 9 (5/30 – 6/5) - Jose Fernandez, Demigods
Week 10 (6/6 – 6/12) – Jon Lester, Choppers
Week 11 (6/13 – 6/19) – Julio Teheran, Darkhorses
Week 12 (6/20 – 6/26) - Chris Sale, Choppers

It was a good month for somewhat recent high draft picks.  With the exception of Lester and Sale, every player who earned a weekly honor in June was a first or second round pick in the ’14 or ’15 drafts.  All of the players above had excellent months, but interestingly, the monthly award winners are not among them.  Here are your monthly award winners for June 2016:

Batter of the Month:

Wil Myers, Gators
.327 AVG, 11 HR, 33 RBI, 25 R, 5 SB, 3.47 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Max Scherzer, Kings
1.96 ERA, 0.726 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 58 K, 3.81 PAR

Wil Myers was once considered the top prospect in baseball by many.  The Gators bought into that potential, making him the second pick in the 2014 draft.  However, until this past month, his career had been underwhelming at best.  He’s on his third MLB team and now has a new position.  But it is quite possible that June was the beginning of him reaching that superstar potential.  He led the league in HR and RBI in June.  His 11 homers were more than he hit in any full season in his DTBL career to date.  The 3.47 PAR he accumulated in the month accounts for about 85% of his career total.  This was a fairly comfortable win for Myers, but Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Jones were his closest competition.

On the other side, dominating months are nothing new for Max Scherzer.  He won this same award last May and has been in the running many other months as well.  In June, his numbers were impressive across the board, but especially in strikeouts (note:  his record tying 20 strikeout game was actually in May).  He struck out at least 10 in five of his six starts in June and the 58 for the month were nine more than any other pitcher.  He now leads the league in that category, obviously helped by Clayton Kershaw’s trip to the DL.  Scherzer did not win this honor easily.  Jon Lester was just a couple tenths of a point behind him.  Corey Kluber finished third.

2016 Season Preview: Part II

Saturday, April 2nd, 2016


Parts two and three of the 2016 DTBL season preview will cover six teams slated to finish in the middle of the pack with very little separation.  In particular, the teams projected to finish in fourth through eighth place are bunched within 4 1/2 points of each other.  So it wouldn’t take much for the three teams covered in this article to finish in the top half of the standings.  These teams are projected to finish safely ahead of the bottom two, but would need to significantly surpass these numbers to get into the title race.  There are signs of significant improvement over last year for two of these teams, while the third would be taking a huge step backwards if these prognostications were to come true.  Obviously, teams projected to finish in the bottom half of the standings have some weaknesses, but these three teams also have significant strengths that could carry them to higher places.  Here are the teams projected to finish in eighth, seventh and sixth places.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
  • Home Runs – 7th (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
  • Wins – 6th (2nd-T)
  • Saves – 9th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (7th)
  • Total Points – 8th (3rd)

Summary:

Okay, this is a pretty rough looking projection for a team that finished third last year.  But if you look closely at the numbers, the drop-off from a year ago is not that significant.  The 61.5 points they earned last year was more in line with a middle of the pack team most years.  But they are still slated to drop close to 10 points, which would make an eighth place finish pretty disappointing.  On the positive side, the offense looks very strong again.  They didn’t select a hitter until the fourth round of the draft, so this lineup is mostly the same as last year.  If Bryce Harper has another season like the last one, you can probably safely assume these team power projections are on the low side.  Todd Frazier, George Springer and Xander Bogaerts are three other players who seem primed for big years.  The concern is on the mound.  Last year, Jacob deGrom pretty much carried the rotation, but a pair of Carloses have been brought in to help:  Carlos Martinez and Carlos Rodon.  Those guys have huge upside, but modest projections in ERA and WHIP.  The bullpen is definitely a weakness at the moment with Brad Boxberger and Carson Smith hurt.  Jake McGee appears to be the only player on the roster who can be counted on for saves in April.  The Darkhorses absolutely have the talent to contend.  But we’ll have to see if they are able to outperform this iffy pitching forecast.

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 6th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
  • Wins – 3rd (4th)
  • Saves – 5th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (4th)
  • Total Points – 7th (9th)

Summary:

Although this projection only shows a two place jump, I think the Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the league.  First of all, their ninth place finish was a little misleading due to the tightness of the race to the bottom.  They actually looked like one of the stronger teams in the league early last season.  But a late season collapse sent them spiraling to 9th.  For quite some time now, they have had a very solid pitching staff but have been waiting for the offense to catch up.  Well, that time appears to have arrived.  The Cougars are actually projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points.  But the closeness of these middle teams has them just seventh overall.  The offense is much improved.  Kris Bryant will provide an immediate power boost, joining forces with holdovers Chris Davis and Jose Abreu.  Charlie Blackmon and Michael Brantley are two very underrated players as well.  This should be the best offensive team the Cougars have fielded since 2010.  The pitching staff is largely the same as last year, led by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer.  But the potential for a big boost here would be getting a full season out of Adam Wainwright.  The bullpen looks pretty strong with Cody Allen and David Robertson, but Drew Storen losing the closer gig in Toronto isn’t helpful.  Overall, this is a very solid team.  I’m betting the over on seventh place.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (8th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd-T (7th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (6th)
  • Wins – 10th (10th)
  • Saves – 3rd (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
  • Total Points – 6th (10th)

Summary:

This entire section requires a huge asterisk after news hit last night that A.J. Pollock broke his elbow.  Pollock was easily the Kings best, most irreplaceable offensive player last year.  So these projections showing them leading the league in batting points seems highly unlikely.  Having said that, the Kings still have far more talent than most teams coming off a last place season.  The offense was actually pretty good in 2015, but they were torpedoed by an awful pitching staff.  It looks to be the same story heading into 2016.  Carlos Correa and David Peralta will add to a strong group of returning hitters including Mookie Betts, Robinson Cano and Carlos Gonzalez.  If they are able to get bounce-back seasons out of Jay Bruce and Jonathan LuCroy, they definitely could have one of the best hitting teams in the league, even without Pollock.  The pitching staff, on the other hand, is still a huge problem.  It was basically Max Scherzer and a bunch of stiffs last year.  They are hoping Marcus Stroman can lend a hand and are hopeful for a bounce-back year from Jeff Samardzija.  The bullpen is a strength.  They will enter the season with four closers.  The Kings seem like a safe bet to improve on last year’s disaster.  But if they don’t get several pitchers to take their games to another level, another finish in the bottom half of the standings seems likely.