DTBL News

Category: Kings

  • 2026 Season Preview: Part II

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    Hey, there is a real MLB game today! As we get ready for the official start of the 2026 season later this evening, let’s take a look at the next set of teams in our DTBL season preview series.

    As is custom, I’m not going to show the full projected standings until the final segment of this series. However, here is a bit of a spoiler. There are two teams that are head and shoulders above the rest, to go along with the two teams already covered that are a fair distance behind the pack. That leaves six teams closely bunched together in the middle. Those teams that will be covered in the next two articles are separated by a total of just nine points in the total standings. So you could very easily shuffle them up and pick them out of a hat in any order to come up with a reasonable prediction for this season. With that said, we will now take a look at the three teams in the bottom half of that group. It contains one team that is projected to improve greatly over their ’25 finish and two teams that are once again tied in the standings just like they were at the conclusion of last season. Only this time, it is a coupe spots lower in the standings. Here are the teams projected to finish sixth through eighth (or rather, tied for seventh) this year.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 4th (7th)
    • Home Runs – 9th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In – 9th (5th)
    • Runs Scored – 8th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 2nd (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 6th (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 6th (5th)
    • Wins – 8th (5th-T)
    • Saves – 5th (2nd)
    • Strike Outs – 2nd (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th-T (5th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th (5th)
    • Total Points – 7th-T (5th-T)

    Summary:

    The Choppers were about as average as you could get last year, finishing in fifth place in batting points, pitching points, total points and in six of the ten categories. Unfortunately, they took a massive blow to one of the areas where they were above average, in the saves category, when Emmanuel Clase got himself embroiled in a gambling scheme that will likely end his big league career. With one of their most impactful players off the roster, they put their primary focus on filling that gap using their first two draft picks on closers: Devin Williams and Daniel Palencia. Even after doing that, they are still slotted to drop a few points in the saves category this year. Robert Garcia, Clayton Beeter and Paul Sewald are all candidates to add to that save total though, making it a reasonable gamble to at least hold serve in the bullpen. The problem is they had to allocate so many resources to plug that hole that other spots on the roster have been left dangerously thin. The rotation should be pretty good though if they can stay relatively healthy. They are led by a pair of Mariners aces, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo. Woo was one of the breakout stars of 2025. You just never know what you are going to get in any given year from Dylan Cease, except a reliable number of innings and loads of strikeouts. Blake Snell and Eury Perez are strikeout artists as well, but not as reliably healthy as Cease. Snell will open up this season on the shelf with a worrisome shoulder injury. Overall, the pitching staff should be good enough to keep the Choppers in contention. The question will be if the offense can do the same with few upgrades made to last year’s squad. It would certainly help if Adley Rutschman could return to form as an elite catcher. His new Orioles teammate, first baseman Pete Alonso is the standout of the Choppers infield. WBC MVP Maikel Garcia anchors the other side of the diamond. Nico Hoerner, CJ Abrams and Trevor Story make up a reliable, if not flashy middle infield. Youngster Sal Stewart and veteran Jorge Polanco are the newcomers on the infield. The outfield is also mostly reliant upon returners, led by slugger Kyle Schwarber. Wyatt Langford was solid for the Choppers in his DTBL rookie campaign and could be ready to take his game to another level this year. Lawrence Butler and Steven Kwan are the other reliable returners. The main newcomer to the outfield is Daylen Lile who was one of baseball’s surprise rookie stars a year ago. There is enough upside on this roster for the Choppers to easily exceed these projections. We will see if the bullpen focus in the early part of the draft pays off.

    Kevin’s Kings

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 10th (8th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd (7th)
    • Runs Batted In – 4th (6th)
    • Runs Scored – 6th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 9th (7th)
    • Earned Run Average – 8th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 4th (4th)
    • Wins – 6th (1st)
    • Saves – 6th (5th)
    • Strike Outs – 4th (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (6th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 6th (2nd-T)
    • Total Points – 7th-T (5th-T)

    Summary:

    I’m not sure the Kings have ever been projected to finish this low following a season in which they weren’t awful. But it’s not necessarily a huge surprise to see them here. Their roster is in a weird spot right now where they are probably as deep as all but a couple of the league’s best teams. However, they lack the truly elite talent needed to win championships. Gunnar Henderson is the only offensive player with a PAR projection over 3. So far, it looks like they completely whiffed on last year’s draft and are paying the price now as they had to try to upgrade some of the same spots on the roster again this year. There is some hope for strength in numbers with the bats though. A whole bunch of guys have solid projections and there aren’t any glaring holes. First round pick Ben Rice should give the Kings a leg up on most of the league at catcher, joining Will Smith at that spot. Time will tell if Rice is one and done at that position where he’s obviously more valuable than he would be at his primary position of first base. At the corner infield spots, the Kings will roll it back with the Braves duo of Matt Olson and Austin Riley, plus veteran third baseman Matt Chapman. Henderson and Mookie Betts anchor the shortstop position, with Ezequiel Tovar joining the fray as well. Bryson Stott is still around too. That’s seven infielders with solid projections. The outfield once again looks like a weakness though. Randy Arozarena leads the group. The Kings hope Jo Adell wasn’t a one year wonder. Second round pick Kyle Stowers is the key newcomer, but he will start the season on the IL. Much more alarming is that last year’s first round pick Dylan Crews struggled so badly this spring that he will open the season in AAA. Him figuring it out is absolutely vital to the Kings operation. They did bring back Heliot Ramos and added Alec Burleson as outfield insurance. The Kings brought back their entire top five starting rotation from last year. The problem is that the ace of the group Zack Wheeler’s ’25 season was cut short due to shoulder surgery and it remains to be seen when he will return from that and if he will still be the same dominant pitcher. Cole Ragans is also returning from a less serious injury. George Kirby is probably the safest bet of this group. Michael King, Ryan Pepiot and newcomer Emmet Sheehan provide decent depth here. The bullpen looks decent on paper from a saves projection standpoint, though Jeff Hoffman is the only one with a strong track record and good projections in the other categories. This is a strong roster from top to bottom, but several guys will need to join Henderson in elite status if the Kings are going to make run at the title.

    Dan’s Diamond Dogs

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 4th (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 3rd (8th)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (7th-T)
    • Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
    • Earned Run Average – 10th (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
    • Wins – 7th (9th-T)
    • Saves – 4th (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 8th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd-T (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
    • Total Points – 6th (10th)

    Summary:

    Here we have the first team projected to improve upon their 2025 finish, and in a pretty significant way. The Diamond Dogs are coming off of a disappointing last place finish, which came on the heels of their best ever fifth place finish in ’24. What immediately jumps out in these projections is the improvement on the offensive side where they are tabbed to be one of the league’s leaders in batting points after finishing among the back of the pack last year. First overall draft pick Nick Kurtz is the main reason for that. He has by far the highest Batting PAR projection of any DTBL rookie and should dramatically help the Dogs in four of the five batting categories. The only one he won’t help much in is stolen bases, where they don’t need any help as the reigning league leaders and projected to do so again. The middle infield, in particular, is filled with speedsters who happen to slug it pretty well too: Elly De La Cruz, Trea Turner and Brice Turang. Eugenio Suarez returns as the slugging third baseman. Steady veteran Willson Contreras joins Kurtz as the Dogs new first basemen. Ivan Herrera and Carter Jensen give them a solid young catching pair with plenty of upside. The outfield was a major weakness last year, but should benefit from Oneil Cruz shifting out there and away from their crowded infield. Julio Rodriguez is by far their best outfielder and a potential MVP candidate. Teoscar Hernandez is their other top returning outfielder. The Diamond Dogs hope last year’s first round pick Brenton Doyle has a much better sophomore campaign with them. But if not, perhaps his Rockies teammate Jordan Beck will give them a boost instead. On paper, this looks like the best offensive squad the Diamond Dogs have ever fielded. For them to make the leap all the way to contender status will require major improvement from the pitching staff too though, which doesn’t look as likely. Veteran Nathan Eovaldi had one of the most under the radar spectacular seasons you’ll ever see last year. The Dogs could use another one of those from him. He is joined in the rotation by a couple splashy young guns in Jacob Misiorowksi and Trey Yesavage, their second and third round picks respectively. Their staff will be heavily reliant on Orioles pitchers, three of whom are new to Baltimore: starters Shane Baz, Trevor Rogers and Chris Bassit, plus closer Ryan Helsley. They could really use a bounce back season from Sandy Alcantara who struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery last year. The bullpen could be excellent if Josh Hader recovers from the arm injury that currently has him on the shelf. Helsley and Trevor Megill will look to pick up the slack while he is gone. The pieces are in place for this to be a very good season for the Diamond Dogs. They shouldn’t be picking first again in next year’s draft.

  • Kurtz Kicks off Draft

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    The 2026 DTBL Draft is in the books. I usually write this recap article while the draft is still in progress. Even though that is not the case this time around, I’m going to keep it focused on the first round. There will be time to cover some of the other players taken during the team previews, which will start to roll out soon as we approach Opening Day next week. Going into this year’s draft, it was pretty clear this was not going to match last year in terms of clear cut rising stars occupying the bulk of the first round selections. So it was not surprising that four of the players taken in the first round this year are not new to the DTBL and even one of the newcomers has a few years of MLB experience under his belt.

    The Diamond Dogs got things started by taking one of the few players in this draft who would have been a certain first round pick in any year’s draft. They selected reigning American League Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, whose game power took no time at all acclimating to the big leagues. Kurtz slugged 36 home runs for the Athletics while maintaining an elite .290 batting average as well. This is the first time since 2018 that the first overall pick has been a first baseman. It was the fourth time in five years that the Diamond Dogs have made the first pick in the draft. If Kurtz keeps doing his thing, the Dogs offense could be good enough to make sure a different team gets that opportunity to pick first next year.

    The second pick wasn’t quite as clear cut as the Kurtz selection. The Cougars opted to go with one of last year’s breakout stars, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Perdomo’s disciplined plate approach mixed with excellent speed and newfound power turned him into a complete player in 2025. He hit .290 with 20 homers and 27 stolen bases. What perhaps made this a surprise selection for the Cougars specifically is that the middle infield was already a bit crowded even before the draft started with four of their keepers being second basemen or shortstops. Nonetheless, Perdomo joins Ketel Marte as the cornerstones at those positions moving forward.

    The Jackalope went with youngsters with big upside pretty much throughout this draft, starting with third overall selection Roman Anthony. Anthony entered last season as the consensus top prospect in the game. Like Kurtz, it took very little time for Anthony to show his potential in the big leagues. The five tool outfielder hit .292 with eight home runs before an oblique injury cut his season short. His recent performance in the World Baseball Classic showed that he’s healthy again and already among the best young players in the game. It remains to be seen if the Jackalope youth movement pays immediate dividends. Anthony figures to be a big part of their future regardless of how long it takes to return to contention.

    While this may have been a down year for talent in the draft overall, that was not the case for every position. The league hasn’t seen an influx of top flight catchers in a while. This could be the year that changes. The Komodos selected ’25 National League Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin with the fourth pick. It is the earliest a catcher has been taken in the draft since Gary Sanchez went second overall in 2017. While Baldwin was a prospect of note in the Braves organization, he wasn’t really expected to be a big contributor in 2025 with veteran Sean Murphy leading the Braves catching core. But Baldwin replaced an injured Murphy early in the season and likely took his starting job for good. He hit .274 with 19 homers and 80 RBI, all outstanding numbers for the offensively challenged position of catcher. He will team up with later draft pick Austin Wells to potentially give the Komodos one of the best catching combos in the league.

    The Komodos saw one of their former players go off the board in the pick following their own. The Choppers were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie when they nabbed closer Devin Williams with the fifth pick in the draft. It was definitely a case of picking for need as the Choppers did not bring back a single reliever from their ’25 squad. Williams had established himself as one of the best closers in baseball prior to an injury riddled ’24 season and then a rough 2025 campaign in which he eventually lost his job as the Yankees closer. Now he’s across town with the Mets where he will look to fill Edwin Diaz’s large shoes as their ninth inning stopper. The Choppers went reliever again in the second round taking Daniel Palencia, in hopes of turning this obvious weakness into a strength.

    One of the more interesting players in this year’s draft pool was Ben Rice who has incredible value as long as he remains eligible at catcher in this league. The problem is, that very well could be for this year only depending on how often the Yankees decide to put the slugger behind the dish. He’s far less valuable from a fantasy perspective manning first base. The Kings decided the gamble was worth it for this year anyway, making him the sixth selection of the draft. Rice hit 26 home runs with well above typical catcher numbers in average, runs and RBIs as well. So long as he puts up similar numbers this year, he will give the Kings a huge leg up on most of the league at that position. Whether or not he is one and done at that position in this league is something the Kings will worry about next offseason.

    A second former Komodo went off the board with the seventh pick. The Darkhorses nabbed veteran shortstop Corey Seager who perhaps had lost favor with the Komodos after a string of injury marred seasons. When healthy though, he’s about as reliable of an offensive performer as you can get. The Darkhorses offense is what prevented them from being a serious title contender a year ago. They were particularly weak up the middle. Seager should provide an immediate upgrade at that spot. If he stays healthy this time around, the Darkhorses figure to be in the championship mix all the way to the end.

    Kyle Bradish has a chance to be this year’s Garrett Crochet, a player who has been on the DTBL roster before but retains rookie eligibility due to never seeing an active roster before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2024. I think people forget how good he was prior to that injury. Obviously the Demigods didn’t, as they selected him with the seventh overall pick, making him the first starting pitcher taken in this draft. Bradish is the second straight Oriole taken by the Demigods in the first round, following Jordan Westburg a year ago. Bradish returned from the long rehab process late last season and looked like his old self, throwing 32 dominant innings. Because he never saw time on the active roster with the Jackalope, he enters this season as a strong DTBL Rookie of the Year candidate.

    Another starting pitcher followed Bradish with the Moonshiners selecting young righty Nolan McLean with pick number nine. McLean really flew up prospect rankings last year and had an extremely impressive MLB cup of coffee. He retains MLB rookie eligibility entering this season and is the consensus preseason favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Drafted out of college as a two-way player, it has just been a little over a year since he started focusing solely on pitching. So there is still huge room for growth. As we saw in last night’s WBC Championship Game, he’s not afraid of the biggest of stages, and has the stuff to back it up. This is the third straight year the Moonshiners have used their first pick on a starting pitcher. Good luck to McLean in living up to the standard set by Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.

    The Mavericks really have no weaknesses, so the two time defending champs could go in pretty much whatever direction they wanted with their early draft picks. This time, they opted to pick up a steady veteran outfielder in Ian Happ. Happ joins an outfield that already consisted of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Jarren Duran and Mike Trout. Jazz Chisholm is moving onto the dirt this season though, opening up a spot for another solid outfield contributor. Happ figures to be just that. Going with proven commodities with their first several picks allowed the Mavericks to take some big swings at youngsters later in the draft. If history is any indication, they will probably hit a couple home runs with those picks. The Mavericks remain the team to beat in this league.

    Thanks to everyone for a well paced and well executed draft. We’re less than a week away from Opening Day. Season preview posts will be coming very soon. Stay tuned!

  • 2025 Season Preview: Part II

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    Before I get to the next set of teams in this DTBL season preview series, I want to take a moment to expand upon a passing comment I made up top in the first section.  I was a bit pressed for time while writing that night.  I mentioned that I was leaning towards switching away from the Fangraphs Depth Charts as the projection system of choice next year.  The reason for this is because I think it seriously overrates players who are either injury prone or are returning from major injuries.  As a quick refresher, Depth Charts combines two other projections systems, ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts for expected playing time depending on the MLB team's current roster.  The reason why I've liked this in the past is because it more accurately accounts for how much, or how little, of a role upcoming prospects might play for their teams and which guys might be stuck in platoon situations.  However, as MLB teams are now incentivized to call up prospects earlier, this has become less useful.  So some of the strengths of this system are being outweighed by the weaknesses in projecting playing time for injury prone players.  Let's take a player who wasn't drafted this year as an example:  Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen.  He has the 11th highest projected Pitching PAR of any player who was available in this year's draft.  The reason for that is because one projection system, ZiPS, was especially high on his performance, but in only 76 innings.  When you extrapolate that out to Depth Charts' 125 projected innings, you get outstanding numbers.  However, that's not really what ZiPS was projecting.  Rasmussen has only pitched more than 80 innings once in his career.  So the ZiPS innings projection makes more sense to me than what Depth Charts spits out.  There are similar weaknesses among hitters who can't stay healthy as well.  So I'm going to take a closer look at this next winter and possibly pick a different projection system to use for this effort.

    Anyway, as the first weekend of the 2025 MLB season gets underway, let's take a look at a few more DTBL teams heading into the new season.  This group is projected to finish in the middle of the pack, comfortably ahead of the four teams covered in part one, but also a decent ways behind the top contenders.  These teams don't have the glaring weaknesses of the teams covered in the first section, but also may need some special overachieving performances to chase for a title.  Here are the teams projected to finishing fourth through sixth places this year.

     

    Kat's Komodos

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 1st (6th)

    • Home Runs - 5th (4th)

    • Runs Batted In - 3rd (6th)

    • Runs Scored - 8th (8th)

    • Stolen Bases - 7th (7th)

    • Earned Run Average - 6th (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 7th (3rd)

    • Wins - 7th (5th-T)

    • Saves - 3rd (5th)

    • Strike Outs - 9th (6th)

    • Total Batting Points - 4th (6th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 6th (5th-T)

    • Total Points - 6th (6th)

    Summary:

    The Komodos have been quietly sneaking up the standings the past couple years and could now be in a position to break into the top half of the standings, although here they are picked to finish the same place as last year in sixth place.  The offense is well rounded with solid, reliable contributors across the board.  Jose Ramirez remains the star of the show and once again should be expected to be among the league's best all around players.  Josh Naylor is replacing Christian Walker at first base in Arizona, but both return as teammates with the Komodos where they are joined by Yandy Diaz to provide quality depth.  Corey Seager and Anthony Volpe will anchor the shortstop position once again.  The newcomer on the infield is Luis Garcia Jr who finally put it all together last year and is now a quality power and speed guy at a pretty shallow second base position.  The Komodos outfield was a bit of a disappointment last year.  However, on paper, this looks like a very strong group heading into this season with the addition of first round pick James Wood.  Yordan Alvarez should be in the running to lead the league in homers.  A change of scenery could do Cody Bellinger some good, especially now playing in the lefty hitting paradise of Yankee Stadium.  Then there is Luis Robert Jr who is coming off of a miserable, injury plagued season.  If he can return to form, he remains one of the highest upside fantasy stars in the game.  A return to form could also help get him traded away from the sorry White Sox.  These projections call for the Komodos to finish fourth in the league in batting points.  I could see them moving up even higher than that if all goes well.  The pitching staff will likely determine the team's ultimate fate though.  There is a proven track record of success from their entire rotation.  However, I'm a tad skeptical that Shane McClanahan and Walker Buehler, with their checkered health in recent years, will accumulate 150+ innings as these projections call for.  Framber Valdez and Tanner Bibee are the safer bets to lead this pitching staff.  Bailey Ober is a reliable anchor and Christopher Sanchez was a nice pickup in the second half of the draft.  Ultimately, health will be the number one factor in determining how strong this Komodos rotation will be.  The bullpen should be outstanding.  Devin Williams and Jhoan Duran are an excellent 1-2 punch that should ensure they are near the top of the league in saves.  Kenley Jansen may be past his prime, but is firmly entrenched in a closer role as well.  If Lucas Erceg is able to wrestle some saves away from former Komodo Carlos Estevez in Kansas City, the Komodos could find themselves atop the saves rankings.  There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Komodos this season.

     

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 7th (10th)

    • Home Runs - 8th (3rd)

    • Runs Batted In - 9th (7th)

    • Runs Scored - 4th (4th)

    • Stolen Bases - 5th (5th)

    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (1st)

    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (1st)

    • Wins - 3rd (3rd)

    • Saves - 7th (3rd)

    • Strike Outs - 5th (2nd)

    • Total Batting Points - 7th (5th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th (1st)

    • Total Points - 5th (3rd)

    Summary:

    This is as low as the Kings have been projected to finish since 2021 when they were coming off of a miserable ninth place finish in the pandemic shortened 2020 season.  This time around, a fifth place finish would be a two spot drop from a respectable third place in 2024.  Taking a close look at the roster, this projection makes sense though.  The Kings entered this season with a bit of a roster construction problem as their two best offensive players, Gunnar Henderson and Mookie Betts, both moved to shortstop, leaving holes at other positions, most notably the outfield.  Randy Arozarena was their only outfield keeper.  So rebuilding that was job one heading into this season.  They did that by selecting Dylan Crews and Jasson Dominguez with their first two draft picks.  Both have tantalizing upside, but also very short major league track records, causing modest projections entering this season.  Heliot Ramos was another youngster added to the outfield mix.  The only "safe" addition to the group was Tommy Edman.  So the Kings outfield has an extremely high ceiling, but also a very low floor.  How it all works out is anyone's guess.  One the flip side, with the arrival of Betts, the infield is quite loaded with reliable producers.  Betts, Henderson, Marcus Semien and Bryson Stott make up a loaded middle infield that caused them to trade away Bo Bichette for a second round draft pick that turned into Matt Chapman.  Chapman joins Austin Riley at the hot corner and Matt Olson at the other corner.  Other than Stott, every infielder I just mentioned is a safe bet for at least 20 homers.  The catching duo of Will Smith and Logan O'Hoppe is pretty solid as well.  The Kings offense is definitely capable of exceeding these modest expectations.  It will totally depend on what they get out of their very young outfield.  Meanwhile, they return their entire starting rotation that helped them lead the league in ERA, WHIP and total pitching points a year ago.  Zack Wheeler, Cole Ragans, George Kirby, Michael King and Bryce Miller make up the fearsome fivesome.  Kirby is starting the season on the shelf though, so he will be temporarily replaced by Carlos Rodon, back for his second stint with the Kings.  Assuming Kirby's injury isn't a long term concern, this is as solid of a 1-5 as any team in the league.  Like the outfield, the Kings also had to do a nearly complete rebuild of their bullpen.  Jeff Hoffman is the only returner.  Trevor Megill joins him to give the Kings two solid closers.  They hope to lock down a majority of the Phillies saves with Jordan Romano and Orion Kerkering.  However, early indications are both might be setting up for Jose Alvarado.  It seems unlikely the Kings will be able to finish as high as third in saves again this year.  The Kings infield and rotation are as good as it gets, but major questions in the outfield and bullpen make this an extremely difficult team to predict.  Fifth place would be a disappointing finish for them though.

     

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 5th (3rd)

    • Home Runs - 2nd (5th-T)

    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (3rd)

    • Runs Scored - 2nd (2nd)

    • Stolen Bases - 4th (1st-T)

    • Earned Run Average - 7th (4th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (9th)

    • Wins - 6th (1st-T)

    • Saves - 8th (9th)

    • Strike Outs - 8th (4th)

    • Total Batting Points - 2nd (2nd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 7th-T (5th-T)

    • Total Points - 4th (4th)

    Summary:

    In a world in which the Mavericks didn't exist, we would be talking more about how great of an offensive team the Demigods were a year ago and how good they should be again this year.  The Demigods have above average hitters at pretty much every position.  Willson Contreras and Yainer Diaz project to be the best catching duo in the league, with this likely being Contreras' last season at catcher in this league.  Speaking of guys changing positions, this also figures to be Jose Altuve's last season anchoring second base for the Demigods.  Francisco Lindor's incredible 2024 season got overshadowed by a few other players having historic campaigns.  He and Freddie Freeman give the Demigods a pair of MVP candidates on the infield.  A lot has been said about Isaac Paredes having the perfect swing for his new ballpark home in Houston, so that makes him an exciting addition to this already strong group.  Then there is first round pick Jordan Westburg who is only beginning to scratch his potential in Baltimore.  The Demigods outfield is perhaps not quite as deep in talent as the infield, but it does contain a pair of players who are capable of carrying the load in Corbin Carroll and Fernando Tatis Jr.  Carroll is coming off a slightly disappointing season, in which he still hit 22 homers and stole 35 bases.  Once again, the Demigods will hope for a healthy season from Byron Buxton to give this group an extra boost.  If that doesn't happen, it may expose the only apparent weakness with the Demigods offensive roster:  a lack of depth in the outfield.  The Demigods will be looking for a better season from their pitchers if they hope to win their second title in three years.  These projections don't quite see that happening though.  The best pitching projection belongs to second round pick Shota Imanaga, who could immediately become the staff ace in a group of solid veterans.  Max Fried is taking his talents to New York.  Zac Gallen and Aaron Nola continue to do their thing too.  The Demigods no longer get to deploy Reynaldo Lopez as a reliever, but he's still a nice fit in the rotation.  All five of these guys have projections hovering around 4 Pitching PAR.  That's incredibly valuable.  However, they do seem to lack a true Cy Young contender.  Traditionally, the Demigods tend to punt the saves category.  They may have assembled a group that can scrape up a few points in that category this year though.  David Bednar is the only returner.  They added Pete Fairbanks and Aroldis Chapman in the draft as a pair who should be able to grab some saves as well.  They are also hoping for a repeat of the Lopez experiment last year, with another Braves rotation piece occupying a relief pitcher slot on their roster.  This year's version is Grant Holmes.  If he makes the All-Star team like Lopez did last year, we may be able to tag this as a foolproof plan.  The Demigods have all of the pieces to contend again this season.

     

  • Paul and Jacksons Kick Off Draft

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    The 2024 MLB season saw the infusion of one of the best crop of rookie outfielders in recent memory.  But it was a rookie pitcher who stole the show.  Less than a year after being selected by the Pirates with the first pick in the 2023 Draft, and with just 12 professional starts under his belt, right handed fireballer Paul Skenes made his big league debut in May of 2024.  Two months later, he started the All-Star Game for the National League.  After the conclusion of the season, he was named NL Rookie of the Year, finished third in the NL Cy Young vote and even garnered some MVP votes.  Now, he's been selected first overall in another draft with the Cougars selecting him to start the 2025 DTBL Draft.

    Skenes is the first player to be selected first overall in both the MLB and DTBL drafts since Carlos Correa.  But for Correa, who was selected by the Astros out of high school, those selections were separated by four years (2012 and 2016).  Skenes did it in a 20 month span.  While Skenes probably would have been the favorite to lead off this draft regardless of who was picking, he especially made sense for the Cougars who had a very rough season from their pitchers in 2024, finishing last in total pitching points as well as the categories of ERA and wins, with a ninth place finish in strikeouts.  In comes Skenes who should give them a huge boost in all of those categories.  In just 133 MLB innings, he struck out 170 batters with a miniscule 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  He even won 11 games despite not being allowed to work terribly deep into games to keep his inning count under control.  It is scary to think what he might be capable of he is fully let loose.

    Here is a fun fact for you.  Prior to this year, there had never been a DTBL player with the first name Jackson.  Now all of the sudden, three of the first 13 players selected in this year's draft have that given name and a fourth remains available in the draft pool.  Must have been a popular name choice two decades ago.  With the second pick in the draft, the Jackalope selected Milwaukee outfielder Jackson Chourio.  Chourio made the big league Opening Day roster last year at the ripe age of 20 and made an immediate splash.  He hit .275 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases.  He finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year vote, behind the two players he was sandwiched between in this draft.  The Jackalope will be happy to have Chourio on hand to rebound from last year's ninth place finish that saw them at the bottom of the batting point standings.

    Another Jackson was selected with the third pick.  That would be Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, picked by the Darkhorses.  Like Chourio, Merrill made his MLB debut on Opening Day last year.  He was about a year older though, having turned 21 a couple weeks into the season.  In addition to learning how to handle life in the big leagues, he was also learning a new position.  Merrill was almost exclusively a shortstop during his rise through the minors.  That learning curve did not appear to derail his hitting.  He hit an impressive .292 with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases.  He finished between Skenes and Chourio as the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up.  Now those three will get to duke it out again for DTBL ROY honors.  Merrill provides some youth to a very experienced Darkhorses lineup.  No returning Darkhorses player has quite the same power and speed combo as Merrill.

    While the run of Jacksons ended with pick four, the run of young dynamic outfielders did not.  The Choppers selected Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford with the number four pick.  2023 MLB Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  2025 DTBL Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  Langford was another guy given the opportunity to debut on Opening Day of '24.  However, he missed about a month of time due to injury.  He finished the season quite strong, rebounding from a slow start to his career.  He racked up 16 homers with 19 steals, proving to be another versatile fantasy producer.  The Choppers will look to Langford to pump some life into an offense that has been their downfall in recent years.

    Next comes yet another young outfielder.  With the fifth pick, the Komodos selected Nationals slugger James Wood.  Wood didn't make his debut until July, so his rookie numbers weren't quite as gaudy as those taken ahead of him in this draft.  But he did show off a propensity for hitting the ball hard.  Once he starts hitting more of those balls in the air, the sky is the limit (no pun intended).  He probably has the most raw power of anyone taken in the first round of this draft.  Oh, and despite his hulking 6'7" frame, he can run too.  Wood is a nice fit on a Komodos offense that could be sneaky good.

    How about another outfielder?  With the sixth pick, the Diamond Dogs selected Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle.  Doyle was the first player selected in this draft who didn't make his MLB debut in 2024.  But he is brand new to the DTBL just like the others.  Doyle initially came up as a glove first outfielder.  While he remains an elite defender, he also broke out as a hitter last year, hitting 23 home runs to compliment 30 stolen bases.  The Dogs should benefit from Doyle playing half his games in Denver for the foreseeable future.  However, an encouraging sign is that he hit almost as many homers on the road as at home a year ago (11 vs 12).  Doyle joining Elly De La Cruz and second round pick Brice Turang ought to make the Diamond Dogs the overwhelming favorite to lead the league in steals.

    The outfielder run finally came to an end with pick number seven.  The Demigods used that slot to select third baseman Jordan Westburg.  Westburg was the first non-DTBL rookie off the board.  Interestingly, he actually finished the 2024 DTBL season in the free agent pool after an August release by the Mavericks.  Perhaps his impending move from 2B to 3B scared some teams off from signing him late in the season.  While not a DTBL rookie, Westburg is still quite new to the big leagues with '24 being his first extended run.  He hit .264 with 18 home runs.  As a right handed hitter, he could be one of the prime beneficiaries of the Orioles moving in the fences in left field at Camden Yards.  Most teams would probably value Westburg more if he remained at second base, but the Demigods had a gaping hole at third that he should fill nicely.

    My easily searchable draft records go back as far as 2005.  Since then, on two occasions half of the players selected in the first round were outfielders (2011 and 2021), but never more than that.  Until now.  With the eighth pick in the draft, the Kings selected Dylan Crews, the sixth outfielder to go off the board.  Crews is yet another product of the 2023 MLB Draft, where he was the second overall selection behind his LSU teammate Skenes.  Like all of the other outfielders taken in this first round, Crews can both run and hit for power.  Perhaps he leans a little more towards the speed side than the others though.  He didn't debut with the Nationals until late August last year, but still managed to steal a dozen bases.  The Kings were in desperate need to join in on the outfield fun as they lost Mookie Betts to the infield and only kept one remaining outfielder from last year's squad.  Crews will be a nice first piece towards that outfield rebuild.

    Most years, there is little chance a player with Garrett Crochet's profile would drop all the way to the ninth pick in the draft.  But the way this year's draft order shuffled out, most of the teams in the middle of the round had bigger needs than pitching.  The Moonshiners, on the other hand, only kept three starters from last year and had an obvious need for someone to compliment reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, their first round pick a year ago.  So the Moonshiners being able to grab Crochet at #9 worked out quite nicely for them.  Crochet's first professional season as a starting pitcher was a roaring success.  Had he not been on a strict innings limit in the second half of the season, he may have challenged Skubal for the AL Cy Young award.  He struck out 209 batters in just 146 innings.  And now he's been freed from a god awful White Sox roster and has a chance to be a bonafide ace in Boston.  Crochet remains rookie eligible in the DTBL.  He was drafted by the Jackalope as a reliever in 2022, but tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery before the season started.  He has not been on the league roster the past two years.

    The defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, another pitcher who probably would have been picked earlier in a different year.  This also worked out quite nicely for the Mavericks who already have one of the best offenses in league history coming back.  One of their very few weaknesses a year ago was starting pitching depth.  Now Yamamoto joins Chris Sale and Pablo Lopez to form a trio that should easily keep them near the top of the standings.  Yamamoto was the preseason favorite to win that NL Rookie of the Year award that ultimately went to Skenes.  But injuries limited him to just 90 innings.  Unlike most Japanese pitchers who had come over to MLB before him, Yamamoto is still approaching the prime of his career.  This will be his age 26 season.  There is perhaps some post-hype sleeper potential here.

    So the six outfielder first round was bookended by three starting pitchers.  That means just one infielder and no catchers were selected in the first round, the fewest from that group of five positions in any draft since 2005.  The most comparable year was 2011 when there was also just one infielder selected, but amusingly there were three first round catchers that year.  Not surprisingly, infielders were very prominent in the second and third rounds of this year's draft.  Hopefully we'll be wrapping up the draft around this time next week and Opening Day preparations can begin in earnest.

  • 2024 Season Preview: Part IV

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    With the first three full days of the MLB season in the books, we're off and running.  Mookie Betts is on pace to hit .611 with 130 home runs and 324 runs batted in.  Let's see if he can keep it up!  On a negative note, four of the top twelve picks from this month's draft have already found their way to the injured list.  The rash of injuries is something to keep an eye on as it *seems* like there are far more than usual this early in the season.

    Now to the final part of the 2024 DTBL season preview series.  This one will cover the three teams projected to finish at the top of the standings this year.  As I keep mentioning, the margins between these teams and the ones covered in the most recent article are razor thin.  Feel free to skip all the way to the bottom to see for yourself.  It is not particularly surprising to see any of these three teams in this part of the preview as they were all among the top five finishers a year ago.  These might be the three most balanced teams in the league as each of them are projected for at least 30 batting and pitching points, the only three teams that can make that claim.  Without further ado, here are the teams expected to finish in those top three spots.

     

    Jay's Jackalope

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 1st (4th)

    • Home Runs - 5th (4th)

    • Runs Batted In - 5th (8th)

    • Runs Scored - 4th (3rd)

    • Stolen Bases - 6th (4th)

    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (9th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (6th)

    • Wins - 6th (4th)

    • Saves - 6th (4th-T)

    • Strike Outs - 2nd (5th)

    • Total Batting Points - 3rd (4th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th (6th)

    • Total Points - 3rd (5th)

    Summary:

    The Jackalope category projected rankings point to a team that is well rounded with no obvious weakness.  They also show a team that appears to be a little bit better than last season's fifth place finish.  For what its worth, they were projected to finish third last year as well.  Offensively, they made small upgrades, but the top contributors figure to be the holdovers.  And of course, it all starts with reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr.  He is projected for a ridiculous 14.4 PAR, which I think I can safely assume is a record since I've started doing these pre-season projections.  It is almost six points higher than all other hitters in the league.  Makes sense though, coming off a record setting 18.9 PAR season.  His Braves and Jackalope outfield teammate Michael Harris is no slouch either.  Adolis Garica, Anthony Santander and newcomer Jordan Walker fill out what might be the league's best outfield.  The infield is pretty solid too with veteran Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Jung holding down the corners and Luis Arraez and Dansby Swanson up the middle.  The catching duo of Cal Raleigh and Francisco Alvarez is back for another season.  As long as Acuna remains healthy, it is hard to imagine this not being one of the better offensive teams in the league.  The pitching projections may be a tad inflated though.  They were compiled before staff ace Gerrit Cole got hurt.  It remains unclear how much time he will miss.  He will certainly be tough to replace.  Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow are pretty solid top of the rotation pitchers in their own right.  First round draft pick Grayson Rodriguez is an exciting addition to this group.  They also opted to roll the dice on a couple currently injured pitchers coming off great seasons in Kyle Bradish and Kodai Senga.  The Jackalope do have enough starting pitching talent to survive a lengthy absence from Cole, but maybe drop the expectations a notch or two.  The bullpen is a bit of a wild card.  Raisel Iglesias is the only well established closer, but Jose Alvarado is likely to join him if the Phillies don't opt to go with a committee.  The health of the pitching staff is certainly the thing to watch early with the Jackalope.  If they come out unscathed, this will be a very dangerous team with understandably high expectations.

     

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 5th (6th)

    • Home Runs - 1st (2nd)

    • Runs Batted In - 1st (4th)

    • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)

    • Stolen Bases - 8th (9th)

    • Earned Run Average - 5th (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (4th)

    • Wins - 7th (5th-T)

    • Saves - 2nd (2nd)

    • Strike Outs - 7th (6th)

    • Total Batting Points - 1st (3rd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 5th (5th)

    • Total Points - 2nd (3rd-T)

    Summary:

    The Kings already had a very good offense, but now they may have the league's best.  That is despite trading away their first round pick and not drafting a hitter until round three.  Of course, it was that trade of the first round pick that netted them Bo Bichette, who gives a big boost to a position that they were lacking production from a year ago.  The infield really has no weak spot now with Bichette at short, Marcus Semien at second, Austin Riley and Gunnar Henderson at third and the pair of Matt Olson and Rhys Hoskins at first.  They will benefit from having Hoskins back after missing all of last season with a knee injury.  Will Smith is one of the top catchers in the league.  They aren't quite as deep at that position having traded away Sean Murphy, but Logan O'Hoppe will look to replace most of his productivity.  The outfield has been largely rebuilt.  The two holdovers are hard to beat though with Mookie Betts and Randy Arozarena.  The red hot Betts will most likely move to the Kings crowded infield next year as he is moonlighting as a shortstop for the Dodgers this season.  To fill out the outfield, the Kings drafted Chas McCormick and Eloy Jimenez and brought back Tyler O'Neill later in the draft as well.  There are probably other teams with a better group of outfielders on the whole, but Betts alone makes this a very solid group.  The Kings also rebuilt a mediocre pitching staff.  Gone is longtime ace Max Scherzer.  Zack Wheeler and George Kirby are back though and should provide ace-like quality once again.  Michael King moves into the rotation as a full time starter for the first time in his career.  The exciting addition to this group is second round pick Cole Ragans.  The lefty who the Royals acquired from the Rangers in a trade last year was one of the top starters in baseball in the closing months of 2023.  Finally, the Kings picked up another Mariners starter in addition to Kirby, with Bryce Miller rounding out the rotation.  The success of these five starters could be what determines the Kings fate this season as it is the one group that isn't clearly among the best in the league.  The bullpen should be excellent, at least in terms of racking up saves.  Pete Fairbanks, Camilo Doval and Paul Sewald have solid grasps on closer roles, although Sewald is currently on the shelf with an injury suffered late in spring training.  Hunter Harvey may even have a shot at picking up saves if the Nats ultimately decide to go with their best pitcher in that role.  Despite pretty significant roster upheaval, the Kings should once again be in the mix for the league championship and at the very least should have an excellent chance of finishing in the top three for the fourth consecutive season.

     

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 4th (3rd)

    • Home Runs - 6th (3rd)

    • Runs Batted In - 7th (2nd)

    • Runs Scored - 3rd (2nd)

    • Stolen Bases - 3rd (2nd)

    • Earned Run Average - 1st (3rd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (3rd)

    • Wins - 1st (1st-T)

    • Saves - 7th (6th)

    • Strike Outs - 6th (9th)

    • Total Batting Points - 4th (1st)

    • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (2nd-T)

    • Total Points - 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    The Demigods finally won their first DTBL championship last season, doing so by being good at pretty much everything.  They finished in the top three of the league in every category except for saves and strikeouts.  These projections show them once again being strong across the board, but maybe taking a small step back in a few categories.  The trio of Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis Jr and Corbin Carroll all head into this season as potential MVP candidates, at least if Ronald Acuna doesn't have another season like last year.  Carroll won the Rookie of the Year award and finished second in MVP voting.  He and Tatis lead a very strong outfield that brings back almost everyone from a year ago, although Tatis is actually new to the outfield in this league this season.  Seiya Suzuki and J.D. Martinez are back.  The one key addition is Brandon Nimmo.  The infield will once again be anchored by Freeman, Francisco Lindor and Jose Altuve, three guys who have been making the Demigods infield a strength for many years.  It is unlikely they will get the same kind of production from their first round draft pick as they did a year ago with Carroll, but Spencer Steer is that guy this year.  They do have a bit of a problem with another draft pick, third baseman Noelvi Marte receiving an 80 game PED suspension.  Replacing him will be the same person who will be asked to replace him for the Reds, Jeimer Candelario.  Marte's second half return could give this infield a big boost though, assuming his prospect pedigree wasn't enhanced unnaturally.  The Demigods should get nice production from their catching duo of Willson Contreras and newcomer Yanier Diaz.  The Demigods have had a strong pitching staff for quite some time now and that should be the case again this season.  Their entire rotation from last season is back.  Zac Gallen, Max Fried and Aaron Nola have been reliable mainstays.  Joe Musgrove has been excellent when healthy too.  And last year's breakout star was Justin Steele, who unfortunately suffered a hamstring injury on Opening Day.  When healthy, that's as strong of a 1 through 5 rotation as you will find.  I don't want to say the Demigods punt saves, but filling their bullpen with closers has never really been a priority for them.  They do bring back the excellent David Bednar and added Adbert Alzolay in the draft.  Like the Choppers, the Demigods will start the season with two actual starting pitchers filling relief slots with Reynaldo Lopez and Garrett Whitlock.  This could give them an advantage in wins and strikeouts that isn't really captured in these projections.  While the margin is extremely tight, it is not surprising to see the defending champions at the top of these projections.  The Demigods are looking to be the first team to successfully defend their DTBL title since the Kings in 2019.  They certainly have a roster capable of doing just that.

     

    And with that, we have completed the 2024 DTBL season preview.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

     

    Good luck to everybody this season!  Happy Easter!

  • Dogs Make Room For EDLC

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    Coming off three straight last place finishes (two under current leadership), the Diamond Dogs obviously had a lot of holes to fill.  However, shortstop wasn’t one of them.  Trea Turner and Bo Bichette have been among the best shortstops in the game for several years now.  Last year, Oneil Cruz appeared poised to join those ranks before a nasty leg injury ended his season soon after it started in April.  With all three of those players back in the fold for this season and the consensus #1 player available in the draft also being a shortstop, the Diamond Dogs had a difficult decision to make.

    A couple days prior to the start of the 2024 DTBL Draft, the Diamond Dogs dealt Bichette to the Kings, opening a spot for them to select Reds dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz with the first pick.  Meanwhile, the Kings filled a spot vacated by a position change and their postseason release of longtime shortstop Carlos Correa.  In addition to clearing room for De La Cruz, the Dogs also acquired the Kings first round pick (7th overall) and catcher Sean Murphy.  The Kings added Bichette and the first pick of the fourth round.  For the Kings, giving up that first rounder for Bichette was a fairly easy call as he is a far safer bet than anyone selected in this entire draft.  While giving up the steady Murphy hurt a bit, they do still have Will Smith behind the plate.  On the other side, the Dogs did not keep a catcher, so Murphy immediately moves into their #1 catcher spot.

    Of course, De La Cruz was the main reason why this trade happened.  Soon after making his debut for the Reds last year, he became the talk of the league, demonstrating his light tower power and blazing speed on a nearly daily basis.  Initially splitting time between shortstop and third base, he would eventually settle in as the Reds everyday shortstop, a position he figures to occupy for the foreseeable future.  By the All-Star break, he was hitting .325 with an .887 OPS and 16 stolen bases.  He did struggle down the stretch though, in the longest season of his professional life.  His batting average finished at .235.  But he did slug 13 home runs and stole 35 bases.  Even if the hit tool is slow to develop and the strikeout problem continues, his raw power and elite speed gives him a pretty high floor and certainly someone who will help a Diamond Dogs team that finished dead last in steals a year ago.  That almost certainly won’t happen again.  Him joining forces with a healthy Oneil Cruz will make the Dogs fun to watch at the very least.

    It would have been difficult to predict how the rest of the first round would play out because De La Cruz really was the only player who felt like a lock to be among the first players off the board.  The Cougars, who finished last in every offensive category except for stolen bases last year, opted to go with the best bat they could find, outfielder Nolan Jones.  Jones had previously seemed to be a bit of a bust as a prospect for Cleveland.  Moving to Colorado was just what the doctor ordered though.  He put up a 20/20 season, exactly 20 home runs and stolen bases, with a .297 average, all while regularly playing in the outfield for the first time in his career.  The Cougars moved on from a couple of their longtime players who remain Rockies, Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant, but now have a much younger Rockie in the fold.  Jones should help them become a more dangerous offensive team.

    Like the Cougars, the Moonshiners more or less drafted for need with the third pick.  But their need was on the mound.  After winning the league title in ’22 with an excellent staff, that same group cratered to just 18 pitching points a year ago.  In comes the only non-DTBL rookie drafted in the first round this year, lefty Tarik Skubal.  Skubal’s actual DTBL rookie campaign with the Kings in ’22 ended abruptly with elbow surgery, which caused the Kings to release him following the season and kept him entirely off the league roster last year.  He returned with a vengeance last summer, throwing even harder than he did pre-surgery.  In 15 starts, he compiled a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, striking out 102 in 80 innings.  Still just 27 years old, he’ll add some youth to an otherwise veteran laden rotation.

    The Komodos went with a little bit younger pitcher in the fourth slot.  They selected Guardians righty Tanner Bibee.  Bibee, who just turned 25 a couple days ago, had a very impressive MLB rookie campaign which placed him second in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  He won 10 games with a sub 3.00 ERA (2.98).  He struck out 141 hitters in 142 innings.  He appears poised to become Cleveland’s next great pitching development success story.  The Komodos have the makings of a very strong rotation if they can ever get and keep everyone healthy.  Shane McClanahan will likely miss the entire season and it is unclear when Walker Buehler will return after missing all of last year.  Bibee doesn’t need to be the staff ace though as Framber Valdez is still around too.

    The run of pitchers continued with the Choppers going even younger yet, selecting Marlins 20 year old righty Eury Perez at number five.  Perez made his MLB debut last May, just a month after turning 20.  You would think a towering 6’8″ 20 year old pitcher who throws serious gas would be a walk machine.  But Perez actually has quite good command.  He struck out 108 hitters with just 31 walks in his 91 big league innings.  Again, quite impressive for someone that age.  He was a little home run prone, but that is just picking nits at this point.  The Choppers have a rotation full of interesting options now, but it would behoove them if Blake Snell were to sign with a team relatively soon.

    The streak of starting pitchers extended to four when the Jackalope selected Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez with the sixth pick.  The highly touted Rodriguez had a rough introduction to the big leagues which eventually led to him being demoted back to AAA.  But then he returned to Baltimore as a much more confident and effective pitcher.  He had a 7.35 ERA when he was demoted near the end of May and was able to drop that 3 full points to 4.34 by the end of the season.  He had a 2.58 ERA from the All-Star break on.  This is the first time since 2018 that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on a pitcher.

    With the seventh pick, the Diamond Dogs used the pick they acquired from the Kings in the Bichette trade to add another slugger to the lineup.  Marlins third baseman Jake Burger seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the very few bright spots on the White Sox before they dealt him to Miami.  While Burger was a former first round pick of the Sox, it seemed unlikely he would ever reach the majors after blowing out his achilles tendon twice.  Finally given a chance to play nearly every day last year, he slugged 34 home runs while driving in 80, and actually improved his bat to ball skills hitting over .300 after arriving in Miami.  Burger is on the old side for a DTBL rookie.  He will turn 28 shortly after Opening Day.

    After the momentary pause with the Burger selection, it was back to pitchers with the eighth pick.  The Mavericks selected Dodgers righty, and McHenry, Illinois’ own Bobby Miller.  Safe to say this is the highest pick ever of a McHenry County native in DTBL history.  Miller, with his 99 MPH average fastball, posted very impressive numbers in his first MLB season.  In 124 innings, he struck out 119 with a 3.76 ERA.  He won 11 games pitching for one of baseball’s best teams.  Interestingly, he will essentially be replacing a Dodger legend in the Mavericks rotation.  Clayton Kershaw’s illustrious 15 year career with the Mavericks came to and end this offseason.  Julio Urias is another Dodger gone from the Mavs’ rotation, but I would not call his career quite as illustrious.  Miller will look to continue the Dodger domination for the Mavericks.

    Perhaps a bit of a surprise that he fell this far, the Darkhorses nabbed third baseman Royce Lewis with the ninth pick.  A string of injuries is the only thing that prevented Lewis from joining the ranks of the DTBL years ago.  Still just 24 years old though, he should have plenty of great years ahead of him.  Lewis smacked 15 homers with a .309 average in just 217 at bats last season.  And then he added four more home runs in the Postseason.  Initially drafted and developed as a shortstop, Lewis seems to have found a home at the hot corner where he will join Alex Bregman to form an enviable duo at that position for the Darkhorses.

    The first round wrapped up with the Demigods selecting utility player Spencer Steer, officially a first baseman for this season in the DTBL.  While the Reds haven’t found a permanent positional home for Steer, his bat pretty much ensures he’ll be in the lineup most days.  He hit .271 with 23 homers, 86 RBI and 15 steals last season.  The defending champion Demigods continue to have one of the most balanced rosters from top to bottom, so they could have gone any number of ways with this pick.  Steer will fit in nicely at first base this year and wherever he might wind up down the road.

    On the heels of what was one of the most hyped rookie classes in recent history, and then that ’23 class lived up to the hype in year one, this year’s crop has their work cut out for them.  With five exciting young pitchers in the first round mix this year, perhaps we will see a little more balance though.  Time will tell.

  • 2023 Season Preview: Part III

    Embed from Getty Images With a couple days in the books, we're already seeing what a difference the new MLB rules are making on the game.  Most obvious is the shortening of the length of games due to the pitch clock.  From a fantasy perspective, the biggest change is probably the increase in stolen bases due to pickoff attempt limits and slightly shorter distances between bases caused by the increased base size.  It is probably still a bit too early to predict *exactly* what this means from a fantasy perspective though.  Will stolen bases simply increase across the board such that no particular type of roster benefits disproportionately?  It will probably cause some funky PAR numbers to pop up though since the threshold for being an above average stolen base contributor had been at a historic low prior to this season.  Anyway, that's an analysis that can be done at another time when we have more data.

    If you were wondering why I only covered a pair of teams in each of the first two preview sections, it is because I kind of had to plan the whole series around today's trio of teams who are all projected to finish with the exact same number of points.  So it would not have made sense to split them up.  The 56 standings points each are projected to accumulate is pretty much where the similarities end among these teams though.  One is expected to have the best offense in the league, paired with the worst pitching staff.  Another is pegged to have one of the best pitching staffs, but with a near bottom offense.  And then there is the third team that is quite balanced in both parts of the game.  Here are the three teams projected to tie for fourth place.

     

    Charlie's Thunder Choppers

    Category - Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 6th (9th)

    • Home Runs - 10th (8th)

    • Runs Batted In - 10th (8th)

    • Runs Scored - 9th (6th)

    • Stolen Bases - 4th (8th)

    • Earned Run Average - 2nd (1st)

    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (3rd)

    • Wins - 4th (3rd)

    • Saves - 3rd (2nd)

    • Strike Outs - 2nd (1st)

    • Total Batting Points - 9th-T (9th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (1st)

    • Total Points - 4th-T (5th)

    Summary:

    Last year, the Choppers had far and away the best pitching staff in the league.  However, their offense really dragged them down and prevented them from giving the Moonshiners a serious threat down the stretch.  These projections paint a similar picture, although the Choppers did solidify their lineup with some very talented young players who could break out and smash these numbers.  It is a little hard to imagine a team with sluggers like Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber finishing dead last in home runs.  They are the only two on the team slated for more than 25 homers though.  The infield consists of a litany of young players with breakout potential:  Ke'Bryan Hayes, Alec Bohm, Vaughn Grissom, Triston Casas, Nico Hoerner and CJ Abrams.  First round draft pick Adley Rutschman joins Alejandro Kirk to give the Choppers one of the best catching tandems in the league.  The outfield is where they are a bit thin on impact players, besides defending NL home run champion Schwarber.  Steven Kwan and Lars Nootbaar are the newcomers to this group who will try to add a spark.  The pitching staff remains the strength and is mostly unchanged from last year's pitching point leading group.  Reigning DTBL Rookie of the Year winner Dylan Cease, Brandon Woodruff and Shane Bieber all carry projections that would put them in the conversation for the Cy Young award this season.  Even though he's been an elite pitcher for quite some time now, Bieber seems to fly under the radar in discussions about the top pitchers in baseball.  He actually has the highest PAR projection of this trio.  Blake Snell and Logan Gilbert round out the rotation and they added Nick Lodolo to give themselves a solid depth piece as well.  Snell's return to elite form last season was quite a boon to the Choppers staff.  Gilbert being their fifth highest projected PAR starter is pretty envious.  The bullpen is very strong too.  With Edwin Diaz out for the season, Emmanual Clase is pretty much in a class by himself among relievers who can dominate not only in saves, but ERA, WHIP and strikeouts as well.  Jordan Romano is about as steady as they come too.  Trevor May has a shot at getting saves with the A's.  Brusdar Graterol has the stuff to enter the closer conversation for the Dodgers at some point.  The last couple seasons, the Choppers have put themselves into title contention.  This year, they hope to finally end their near-quarter century title drought.

     

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 7th (5th)

    • Home Runs - 6th (1st)

    • Runs Batted In - 3rd (1st)

    • Runs Scored - 2nd (1st)

    • Stolen Bases - 9th (5th)

    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (8th)

    • Wins - 6th (6th)

    • Saves - 5th (4th)

    • Strike Outs - 8th (6th)

    • Total Batting Points - 5th-T (1st)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th (6th-T)

    • Total Points - 4th-T (2nd)

    Summary:

    On paper, the Kings look like one of the most balanced teams in the league.  They are one of only two to have batting and pitching point projections in the top half of the league.  They don't have a glaring weakness.  The problem is, they also don't appear to be particularly strong in any area.  The batting projections are actually a bit troubling for a squad that led the league in batting points a season ago.  Also troubling is the fact that these numbers were compiled before they lost Rhys Hoskins for the season with a torn ACL.  The good news is they do have capable corner infielders to attempt to fill that void with Matt Olson, Austin Riley and newcomer first round pick Gunnar Henderson.  Marcus Semien continues to be one of the most productive middle infielders in the game.  Carlos Correa had a wild offseason of free agent drama, but in the end he's back in Minnesota and anchoring the shortstop position for the Kings as well.  Will Smith and Sean Murphy return to provide stability and solid production behind the dish for the Kings.  The outfield has a bunch of new additions in Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Vargas and Michael Conforto, but the main guys out there are the returning trio of Mookie Betts, Randy Arozarena and Tyler O'Neill.  Arozarena is someone who could be capable of carrying an offense if he is allowed to run wild this season.  Same goes for Betts, although his stolen base production has been tailing off in recent years.  The Kings almost completely rebuilt their pitching staff.  Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler are the only healthy holdovers from last season's rotation.  They remain the Kings co-aces.  They'll need some help from a couple of the newcomers though.  The new additions include George Kirby, Nestor Cortes and Drew Rasmussen, none of whom were household names before last year.  The Kings bullpen could be decent, but it is hard to feel confident about that at the moment.  Camilo Doval appears to be the only sure thing closer in the group.  Paul Sewald and Pete Fairbanks could be in line for plenty of saves too though.  The Kings are strong enough in all areas to remain a title contender.  It's just not clear if they have enough elite level talent to push them over the top.

     

    Marc's Mavericks

    Category - Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (1st)

    • Home Runs - 1st (3rd)

    • Runs Batted In - 1st (7th)

    • Runs Scored - 1st (8th)

    • Stolen Bases - 10th (10th)

    • Earned Run Average - 10th (3rd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (4th)

    • Wins - 3rd (10th)

    • Saves - 10th (10th)

    • Strike Outs - 7th (10th)

    • Total Batting Points - 1st (5th-T)

    • Total Pitching Points - 10th (9th)

    • Total Points - 4th-T (9th)

    Summary:

    For the first time in three years, the Mavericks are not the pre-season predicted champion.  Perhaps that is just as well as they have fallen short of expectations every season since winning the league in 2017.  Last year was an especially disappointing season as they had the worst finish in franchise history, falling all the way to ninth place.  Unless everything that can go wrong does again, we probably won't see a repeat of that.  This is an absolutely loaded roster on the hitting side, which creates a pretty high floor, even though the pitching staff is full of question marks.  Pretty much the lone bright spot for the Mavericks last season was Aaron Judge who won the league MVP and broke the AL home run record with 62 bombs.  He's back along with the rest of the league's best outfield.  Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Eloy Jimenez and Nick Castellanos are all looking to bounce back from disappointing and/or injury plagued seasons.  Second overall draft pick Bobby Witt Jr gives the Mavericks infield a significant boost and immediately becomes their top stolen base threat.  Manny Machado continues to be the dependable anchor of the infield.  First baseman Nate Lowe had a nice breakout campaign in '22.  He's joined at first base by second round pick Vinnie Pasquantino.  In addition to the outfielders mentioned above, another guy looking to stay healthy and go back to being one of the premier players at his position is second baseman Ozzie Albies.  As long as they aren't ravaged by injuries like they were a year ago, expect the Mavericks to have the best offense in the league.  The pitching staff is another matter though.  The Dodgers pair of Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw are the only safe bets to provide great numbers from the rotation.  Pablo Lopez is a pretty solid #3 option though.  The rest of the starters fall into at least one of these two categories: returning from injury or looking to regain lost form.  This group includes Chris Sale, Jack Flaherty, Freddy Peralta, Tony Gonsolin and Michael Kopech.  So the good news is they have plenty of options.  It remains to be seen which of these guys will step up in 2023.  The bullpen is a complete wild card.  The Mavericks finished the draft with just one healthy reliever in Alexis Diaz.  They hope to add Liam Hendriks as a reliable closer at some point as he is currently battling back from cancer.  Hunter Brown is an intriguing bullpen piece as a decent bet to hold down a rotation spot for the Astros for parts of the season.  The Mavericks don't have their typical rosy outlook heading into this season, but they are close to a lock to put last season behind them and be a competitive team this year.

  • Back To Basics

    Embed from Getty Images After having written a grand total of just four blog posts in the past eight months, I am aiming to do four or five this week alone.  Most of them will make up our annual DTBL season preview series.  However, before I get to that, I want to do a quick review of the recently completed draft.  The 2022 draft was rather unusual with a majority of the first round picks being pitchers.  This year, things were back to normal.  The first round was comprised of mostly young hitters.  While the beginning of the 2023 DTBL draft was rather predictable, it was also quite interesting.

    The draft kicked off with the Diamond Dogs making the first  pick for the second consecutive season.  Last year, they went a bit off the board in selecting pitcher Shane Baz, a move which backfired quickly as he hurt his elbow soon after the draft and eventually had Tommy John surgery.  This year, the Dogs played it more conventionally, selecting the clear best available player in the draft in outfielder Julio Rodriguez.  Not only was Rodriguez the consensus best available player in this draft, I've seen dynasty rankings that have him #1 among *all* MLB players heading into this season.  He broke into the big leagues with a 28 home run and 25 stolen base season, earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.  It has been quite some time since a player had such a dominant rookie season in both of those categories.  He has true five category star potential and should be a cornerstone for the Diamond Dogs franchise for years to come.

    Speaking of guys with elite power and speed talent, the Mavericks selected shortstop Bobby Witt Jr with the second pick.  Witt also joined the rookie 20/20 fraternity with 20 home runs and 30 steals.  The stolen base aspect of his game will give the Mavericks the only thing they were missing from their extremely potent offense.  Witt is of course the son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, who had a one season stint in the DTBL with the Metros in 1997.

    The first pitcher selected was Spencer Strider by the Darkhorses at #3.  Strider was an under the radar prospect who made his presence felt immediately at the big league level.  He struck out 202 hitters in just 131 innings pitched, while posting a 2.67 ERA and a sub 1.0 WHIP.  Like Rodriguez being the first hitter taken, there was little doubt that Strider would be the first pitcher off the board.

    Strider's Braves teammate, outfielder Michael Harris II was the fourth pick, taken by the Jackalope.  Harris is yet another huge power and speed contributor.  He hit 19 home runs with 20 steals while posting a .297 average.  In almost any other year, he would have been the best five category player available.  Perhaps playing in a loaded Braves lineup does give him the best immediate outlook among these top hitters though.

    The first non-DTBL rookie selected was outfielder Bryan Reynolds.  The Cougars picked him up in the fifth slot.  Reynolds was a surprising drop by the Komodos this winter, but the Cougars were happy to add him to their roster.  He could be an especially nice addition if the Pirates were to trade him to a team that would offer more lineup protection.

    It is almost hard to believe, but prior to this year there had not been a catcher selected in the first round of the draft since 2017 (Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras).  The Choppers ended that drought by choosing Adley Rutschman at #6.  Rutschman had been the #1 prospect in baseball heading into last season according to many publications, and one of the most highly touted catching prospects in modern history.  He had a very good rookie campaign and should give the Choppers a leg up on most of the league at an extremely shallow position.

    The second and final pitcher of the first round was Cristian Javier, selected by the Komodos with the seventh pick.  Javier had a decent stint with the Jackalope back in 2021, but fell off the league roster last year as the Astros kept shuffling him between the rotation and bullpen.  He established himself as an extremely valuable starter last season though, highlighted by his dominant performance in the Astros combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

    The next two picks are the consensus top two prospects in baseball heading into this season, as the others drafted ahead of them have already exhausted their MLB rookie eligibility.  The Demigods took speedy outfielder Corbin Carroll with the eighth pick.  Carroll stole 33 bases across three levels last season.  Oh, he also has pop.  He hit 28 home runs in his '22 minor and major league season.

    Third baseman Gunnar Henderson went to the Kings in the ninth slot.  Corner infield wasn't exactly a position of need for the Kings going into the draft, but they are certainly happy to have Henderson now with Rhys Hoskins out for the year.  Henderson doesn't have quite the same speed as the other hitters picked ahead of him, but he can run a bit and certainly has big league raw power.

    Finally, the defending champion Moonshiners selected catcher MJ Melendez with the last pick of the first round.  Melendez filled in admirably behind the plate for the Royals when Salvador Perez got hurt last summer.  This year, he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield, but should catch often enough to maintain catcher eligibility.  His bat should make him an extremely valuable commodity as long as that remains the case.

    To pull back the curtain a bit on my own draft process, this wound up being as predictable of a first round as I can recall.  Since I had the ninth pick, I had exactly nine guys who I had settled on as potential selections.  As it turns out, only Henderson remained from that list when my pick came up, which made my decision pretty easy.  While I didn't map out exactly which team I expected to take which player, not one of the first round selections was even remotely surprising to me.

    Now it is time to dive into the season preview.  I'm actually hoping to get the first part out later tonight, or tomorrow at the latest.  So be on the lookout for that!

  • 2022 Season Preview: Part III

    Embed from Getty Images We're two days into the 2022 season.  Not surprisingly, with most teams running their top pitchers out there for their first game or two, pitchers seem to have the upper hand so far.  In this next installment of the season preview series, we'll take a look a three more teams that are projected to finish with nearly identical point totals.  What perhaps gives these teams a small leg up on the squads covered previously is that none of them are slated to finish near the bottom of the league in batting or pitching points.  That doesn't mean they are without holes though.  No team can make that claim coming into this season.  Here we have a pair of strong hitting teams with reasonable expectations to have their best finish ever and a defending champion who hasn't finished in the middle of the pack in almost a decade.  Here are the team's projected to finish in the third through fifth positions of the final standings.

     

    Kat's Komodos

    Category - Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 4th (3rd)

    • Home Runs - 6th (8th)

    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (8th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (7th-T)

    • Stolen Bases - 4th (1st)

    • Earned Run Average - 8th (10th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 10th (10th)

    • Wins - 1st (6th-T)

    • Saves - 5th (4th)

    • Strike Outs - 7th (10th)

    • Total Batting Points - 3rd-T (5th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 7th (10th)

    • Total Points - 5th (9th)

    Summary:

    Since joining the league in 2018, the Komodos have been looking to make their first run up the standings, having yet to finish higher than eighth place.  This could be the year they do it.  They have had a pretty strong offensive squad for a while now, but the pitching staff has been an anchor.  While these projections don't show the pitching to be among the league's best, it does show signs of improvement.  Let's start with their strong batting lineup though.  In the past two drafts, the Komodos have been able to add a pair of the most dynamic young stars of the game in outfielder Luis Robert and shortstop Wander Franco.  Robert's injury early last season set the Komodos back, but his return for the final two months launched the upward trajectory of this team.  If he can stay healthy for a full season this time around, he could be a MVP candidate.  Speaking of MVP candidates, Jose Ramirez has annually become one of those.  This year should be no exception.  He has probably become the most consistent producer of both home runs and stolen bases in the entire league.  Franco joins Corey Seager to give the Komodos an enviable shortstop duo.  The ageless Nelson Cruz moves over to first base for this first time in his DTBL career after playing in the field for the first time since 2018 for a single game last year.  That shouldn't be a problem for the Komodos though, as they were a little thin at that position anyway.  Yordan Alvarez and Starling Marte are the other stars of the outfield besides Robert.  An important player for this team will be Cody Bellinger, who has struggled mightily for a couple years since finishing third in the MVP race in 2019.  Walker Buehler has been carrying the Komodos pitching staff for years.  He might have some help now.  Young lefty Shane McClanahan was a very nice second round pickup.  Veteran Nathan Eovaldi is a reliable contributor as well.  A pair of Astros pitchers, Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia, provide solid depth to the rotation.  The bullpen looks very good as well, and got a boost last week when Craig Kimbrel was traded to the Dodgers.  These projections don't account for the fact that he should be a safe bet for a large save total.  Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon make it very likely the Komodos will finish near the top of the league in saves.  This is the highest the Komodos have been projected to finish since they joined the league.  And looking at the roster, that checks out.  This is their strongest squad yet.

     

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (4th)

    • Home Runs - 8th (3rd)

    • Runs Batted In - 9th (6th)

    • Runs Scored - 1st (5th)

    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (9th)

    • Earned Run Average - 5th (7th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (7th)

    • Wins - 9th (3rd)

    • Saves - 7th (10th)

    • Strike Outs - 3rd (3rd)

    • Total Batting Points - 3rd-T (4th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 6th (7th)

    • Total Points - 4th (6th)

    Summary:

    The Demigods were a better team last year than their sixth place finish might have indicated.  Unfortunately, one of the reasons why they fell short of expectations may be playing out again this year.  Their best player, Fernando Tatis Jr, missed time during two stretches with a shoulder injury, yet still managed to finish in the top five in Batting PAR.  This year, they will be without Tatis for a quite a while with him recovering from a broken wrist.  Wrist injuries have a history of sapping players of power even when they do return.  So that's not great for the Demigods.  On a positive note though, this team has plenty of other great hitters.  Freddie Freeman moves to Los Angeles where he will be a key cog in the Dodgers juggernaut lineup, which also contains Demigods third baseman Justin Turner.  C.J. Cron, Jose Altuve, Francisco Lindor and Josh Donaldson join them to form what might be the league's deepest infield.  If you include catchers in that, their standing is even stronger as Willson Contreras and Mitch Garver are among the best catching duos.  The outfield doesn't have quite as much depth, but there is upside there.  People say this every year, but, if Byron Buxton can just stay healthy, he could be one of the best players in the game.  Ketel Marte, J.D. Martinez and Austin Meadows are all solid contributors.  While the Demigods may not be elite in the power categories, they are likely to finish near the top in batting average, runs and stolen bases.  On the pitching front, the rotation welcomes AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray who has the benefit of no longer pitching in the AL East, as he signed with the Mariners this winter.  Freddy Peralta jumps from the bullpen to a rotation spot.  Aaron Nola, Max Fried and Joe Musgrove return to give the Demigods a full rotation of five pitchers with PAR projections north of 4.  They are the only team in the league that can make that claim.  The past two years, the Demigods have completely punted the saves category, recording a grand total of 18 over two seasons.  That included two of the three lowest team save totals in league history.  This figures to change this year with Gregory Soto likely to be the Tigers closer, David Bednar in the mix for the Pirates and Diego Castillo and Ken Giles both among the Mariners committee approach.  The bullpen is still a weakness for the Demigods, but might actually earn them a couple points this year.  The Demigods have an excellent shot at finishing in the top half for the first time since 2018 and could even win the whole thing for the first time if things break their way.

     

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2021 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 6th (8th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (1st)

    • Runs Batted In - 4th (1st)

    • Runs Scored - 5th (1st)

    • Stolen Bases - 7th (8th)

    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (2nd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (1st)

    • Wins - 4th (1st-T)

    • Saves - 8th (8th)

    • Strike Outs - 5th (1st)

    • Total Batting Points - 5th (2nd-T)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th (1st)

    • Total Points - 3rd (1st)

    Summary:

    Since I never got around to writing a championship article for the 2021 Kings, let me quickly sum it up here.  They were not a vintage championship squad.  They took advantage of competition that was weakened due to injuries and other unfortunate circumstances.  The Kings were by far the least affected team among the title contenders in those areas last season.  Will they be so lucky again this year?  Well, they are the only team in the entire league that is projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points.  So on solid balance alone, they ought to have a shot.  The Kings surprisingly led the league in the power categories a year ago.  Don't expect a repeat of that.  The offense is pretty solid across the board though.  The infield is led by three guys who changed MLB uniforms this off-season:  Matt Olson, Marcus Semien and Carlos Correa.  The breakout of third baseman Austin Riley was a key to the Kings title run.  Josh Bell is the main addition here, in quest of holding onto the power category leads.  Will Smith is one of the best catchers in the game, and hasn't slapped anyone recently, as far as I know.  Another major figure in the Kings '21 breakthrough was outfielder Tyler O'Neil, who they picked up as an undrafted free agent early in the season.  He and Mookie Betts have the Kings highest batting PAR projections.  Randy Arozarena, A.J. Pollock and Dylan Carlson join them to make up a very good outfield.  The Kings easily led the league in pitching points last year.  That will be tough to duplicate.  However, they used their first round pick on Trevor Rogers to provide support to Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler and Frankie Montas.  At some point, you have to figure Scherzer will slow down.  He has held a spot as one of baseball's best pitchers for basically a decade straight now.  Wheeler appears ready to take the reigns as the staff ace if necessary though.  This is still a very strong rotation, but perhaps not as deep as a few other teams.  The bullpen is not great, as they have been scraping by without any elite closers for several years now.  Not one of their relievers is on firm ground as a closer.  Matt Barnes and Camilo Doval are the most likely to get saves.  Paul Sewald figures to give them a boost in other categories.  The past seven years, the roller coaster Kings have either finished in a bottom two spot or won the league every time.  So will this version be a bottom feeder or a champion?  There seems to be no other possibility.

  • A Pitcher Takeover

    Embed from Getty Images We are in the midst of the 30th annual DTBL Draft.  With almost three decades of history to draw from, there is a pretty typical pattern in how the first round of the draft plays out.  Normally, a majority of those early picks are young players who made their MLB debut the previous season.  And among those players, the first round tends to skew towards hitters.  Young hitters are generally more projectable than pitchers.  TINSTAAPP (There is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect) is a common refrain in baseball for a reason.  Well, you can throw all of that out when analyzing the 2022 DTBL Draft.

    For the first time since 2003, a majority of the first round picks were pitchers.  The six starting pitchers taken in the first round was a league record, blowing past the previous high of four.  While these pitchers did skew young, they are not all DTBL rookies and even fewer were MLB rookies last year.  This was truly a first round group of ten that did not resemble any previous year's new crop.  Perhaps this is a product of the pandemic shortened 2020 season that saw some position players pushed to the majors due to not having minor league opportunities for development, while pitchers were kept on a more conservative path that led to guys who may have otherwise debuted in '20 being pushed to '21.  But with many of the pitchers drafted in this first round not actually being MLB rookies, who knows?  Probably just a one year oddity.

    The draft started with the Diamond Dogs making their first ever selection after taking over the Beanballers roster.  They chose young right handed starting pitcher Shane Baz.  This was a bit of a surprise, but not because of Baz's pedigree.  Most MLB prospect rankings that have been released this winter have Baz among the top 15 prospects in the game.  And in most cases, he is the top ranked prospect who has already made his MLB debut.  The Rays hurler, stolen from the Pirates as the third piece of the Chris Archer trade, made his debut in late September.  His three regular season starts were impressive enough to earn him a start in the ALDS as well.  The future is bright for Baz.  Unfortunately for the Diamond Dogs, Baz underwent elbow surgery just days after this selection.  The good news is it wasn't a career altering elbow surgery like Tommy John, but rather a cleanup procedure that should just keep him out a few weeks.  He will begin his DTBL career on the injured list though.

    With the second pick, the Komodos took the guy who most people probably expected to go #1, Baz's Rays teammate Wander Franco.  The phenom shortstop had been the #1 ranked prospect for several years before making his much anticipated MLB debut in June.  He proceeded to have a very solid season, hitting .288 with seven home runs, earning him a third place finish in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  While he only stole a couple bases in the big leagues last year, speed is certainly part of his game as well.  He has been touted as a true five tool player.  Having just turned 21 earlier this month, he figures to be a fixture in the Komodos infield for a very long time.

    While Franco was the most highly touted hitter to debut last year, second baseman Jonathan India was the most productive.  The Jackalope selected him with the third pick.  The Reds infielder hit .269 with 21 homers, 69 RBI, 98 runs scored and 12 stolen bases, earning him the National League Rookie of the Year honor.  This marks the fourth straight year that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on an infielder.  This pick feels quite a bit safer than their last similar pick of second baseman Keston Hiura with the fourth pick in 2020.  India should be able to hold down that spot for the foreseeable future.

    The Cougars followed with the breakout star of 2021, making outfielder Cedric Mullins the fourth overall pick.  Mullins still has DTBL rookie eligibility, however, this is not his first time on the league roster.  He was added in 2019, but went undrafted and then unsigned in a very forgettable season.  2021, on the other hand, was rather memorable for Mullins.  He became the latest addition to the 30/30 Club, slugging exactly 30 home runs and stealing exactly 30 bases.  The latter wasn't a huge surprise, but the power seemingly came from nowhere.  He had seven career home runs before last season.  Even if he can't repeat that feat, he still has enormous fantasy potential because of the power and speed combo that so few possess.

    The pitching run began in earnest with the fifth pick that the Demigods used on lefty Robbie Ray.  Ray had a solid run with the Moonshiners from 2017-2019.  But a brutal 2020 knocked him completely out of the league last season.  All he did while away was win the AL Cy Young with a league leading 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 284 strikeouts.  Good call by me removing him from the league roster.  He's back now and should provide an immediate boost to the Demigods pitching staff.

    The Darkhorses selected the pitching breakout star of the year at #6.  Giants righty Logan Webb started his career with a couple mediocre seasons that did not provide much of a hint that he would become the staff ace of one of the best teams in baseball in 2021.  Webb won 11 games with a 3.03 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 148 innings pitched for the Giants last year before becoming a postseason horse with a pair of dominant starts against the Dodgers in the NLDS.  He will play a major role in the Darkhorses retooled rotation that only has two holdovers (Jacob deGrom and Jose Berrios).

    The Moonshiners were just a respectable pitching staff away from being a serious championship contender last year.  They attempted to fix that glaring weakness by selecting young Blue Jays hurler Alek Manoah at pick number seven.  Another highly touted prospect, Manoah did not disappoint in his first big league season.  He had a very respectable 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP along with nine wins and 127 strikeouts.  Given the Blue Jays offensive firepower, he figures to be a solid candidate to win double digit games along with strong numbers in the other three categories.

    We got a brief break from all those pitchers with the Mavericks selecting second baseman Jazz Chisholm with the eighth pick.  Chisholm struggled in his 2020 debut, leaving questions about his ability to hit big league pitching.  Those questions were answered in 2021.  He hit 18 home runs while stealing 23 bases.  Again, that combination of power and speed makes him an exciting fantasy prospect.  Add to that the serious lack of depth at second base right now and you have a player who should be among the league's best at his position.  The Mavericks had to have been thrilled to add a player like him this late in the first round.

    Back to starting pitchers with pick number nine.  The Choppers reacquired a player they had picked up on a whim late in 2020, White Sox righty Dylan Cease.  Cease technically still has DTBL rookie status since he was never placed on the Choppers active roster in 2020.  He was subsequently dropped from the league last year due to his erratic performance in '20.  He finally harnessed his stuff last year though, with an extremely impressive 226 strikeouts in 165 innings, along with a 3.91 ERA and 13 wins.  Still just 23 years old, Cease has the potential to be one of the league's premier strikeout pitchers.

    Rounding out the first round was yet another pitcher who had a great 2021 campaign.  Marlins southpaw Trevor Rogers was never a particularly highly touted prospect.  So his rookie campaign went largely under the radar.  He posted a 2.64 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 157 strikeouts in 133 innings.  That earned him a spot on the NL All-Star roster and a runner-up finish in the NL Rookie of the Year vote.  Rogers joins a Kings staff that led the league in pitching points last year, but was looking for another consistent presence behind Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler.  They now have three of the NL East's best pitchers.

    The run on starting pitchers didn't end in the first round.  Four more were selected in round two and exactly half of the first 22 picks were starting pitchers.  It seems unlikely we will see anything like this in the near future.