Mavericks pitcher Matt Harvey
There is a commonly held belief in baseball that it is better to build a team around offense and every day players due to the unpredictable nature of pitching. While I tend to agree with this, I think it is far less relevant in fantasy baseball and certainly hasn’t been the case in this league. In the past ten years, this league has gone through three distinct eras of a single team dominating the league in pitching for an extended period of time. We have not seen this sort of consistency on the batting side of things, with no team leading the league in batting points for more than two consecutive years in league history.
Starting in 2003, the Mavericks led the league in pitching points three out of four years, winning two DTBL titles in that stretch. Then came the Darkhorses reign from 2007-2009 where they won the championship and led the way in pitching all three seasons. Finally, the Jackalope topped the league in pitching the past three seasons, including one league title. But it appears we are about to start a new era of mound domination. The Mavericks are back on top of the pitching standings, and when you look at their rotation, it is hard to see them giving up that spot anytime soon.
The Mavericks team pitching stats are nearly unbelievable. They are on pace to obliterate the league record for team ERA, WHIP and strike outs. Even with nearly two months to go, it is virtually inconceivable that they could lose their spot at the top of those three categories, and only slightly conceivable that they WON’T wind up as the new team record holder in each category. Here’s a look at each of the three. Their 2.63 ERA leads the league by more than 3/4 of a run per 9 IP. The all-time record is 2.83 by the 2011 Jackalope. So they are 0.20 below the best single season mark in league history. Next, their 1.03 team WHIP is completely absurd. You wouldn’t have to go back very far to find seasons where no single qualifying pitcher had a WHIP that low, forget an entire staff (2008 to be exact). The record in that category also belongs to the ’11 Jackalope at 1.12. Finally, they entered today with 962 strike outs, 93 clear of second place. That puts them on pace for approximately 1,390 strike outs at year’s end. The record in that category is 1,333 by the Mavericks’ own ’07 squad. If they keep up the pace in these three categories, there will be very little room for debate when it comes to the greatest pitching staff in league history.
But here’s the strange part. Despite all of those eye-popping numbers, the Mavericks only find themselves in third in wins. If there was ever a staff that proves how useless the wins category is for evaluating the quality of pitchers, this is the one. The main reason for the low win total is because most of the Mavericks’ pitchers play for weak offensive MLB teams and have been the victims of criminally poor run support. I’ll get to more of that in a bit. They are also only fifth in the saves category, but that figures to change soon since they are one of the few teams with four current closers in the bullpen.
According to ESPN’s fantasy baseball player rater, two of the top three pitchers in baseball this year are Mavericks: Clayton Kershaw (#1) and Matt Harvey (#3). If it weren’t for poor run support (and bullpen, in Harvey’s case), they would probably be the top two and would also likely be the first two pitchers selected if we were to re-draft all of our teams today. They also happen to be #1 and #2 in the league in both ERA and WHIP, with Kershaw leading the way in both. Kershaw’s 1.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP probably won’t be enough to break the all-time records held by Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, but those numbers would both be the lowest in the league since Pedro’s ridiculous 2000 season. Harvey’s 2.21 ERA and 0.88 WHIP are nothing to sneeze at either. And he leads Kershaw in strike outs (172 to 161), but trails Yu Darvish for the league lead. Quite simply, these are your top two Cy Young candidates, even ahead of Max Scherzer and his 16 wins.
Then there is Stephen Strasburg. In many ways, this has felt like a disappointing season for last year’s #2 overall pick. But he has a 3.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and more than a strike out per inning. Don’t let the win total fool you. Strasburg is one of the best pitchers in baseball too. Perhaps flying under the radar due to the aforementioned trio of stud pitchers is Mat Latos. Latos is tied with Kershaw for the team lead in wins with 10 and has more strikeouts than Strasburg. Then there is Matt Garza who has posted an ERA under 2.00 in his partial time on the Mavericks major league roster. And don’t forget injured Alex Cobb who was looking like another one of the best up-and-coming pitchers before getting struck in the head by a line drive in June. If he’s able to fully recover from that, the Mavericks will have an embarrassment of riches and some tough decisions to make this winter. No matter what they decide, this staff looks unbeatable for the near future. The rest of the owners may not want to read the following list of the ages of the Mavericks starting pitchers: Kershaw 25, Harvey 24, Strasburg 25, Latos 25, Garza 29, Cobb 25.
Going back to the wins category, where the Mavericks currently sit in third place, the reason is clear: poor run support. Strasburg’s meager five wins are far more of a reflection on his Nationals teammates than himself. He has received just 2.76 runs of support per start, trailing only Chris Sale among all starting pitchers for worst run support. Kershaw has managed to win 10 games despite being eighth on that same list. With even average support, he would probably have 15 wins by now. Harvey’s eight wins are also due to poor support, both offensively and by his bullpen. Not that any of these guys are likely to suddenly receive great support, you would think their luck might turn around a bit before the year is over.
One minor issue for the Mavericks in their championship hunt could be one that plagued them a year ago as well: a starting pitcher shutdown. In case you have forgotten, the Mavericks lost Strasburg for most of the final month last season as the Nationals controversially decided to shut down their ace during the pennant race after reaching a previously established innings limit. Strasburg is good to go this October, except it appears his team is unlikely to qualify for the playoffs. But it remains to be seen if the Mets will put an innings limit on Matt Harvey this year. They won’t have much to play for in September, so they could opt to shelve him after he gets over 200 or so innings. But unlike Strasburg, this isn’t likely to cost him an entire month. Also, the Mavericks figure to have a safe lead in all of the key categories in which Harvey can help them anyway. Not to mention, they should have Cobb or Garza waiting in the wings to fill in. So while the Strasburg shutdown certainly didn’t help the Mavericks championship chances last year, there is little worry of this situation repeating itself this year. If the Mavericks fail to win the title, it won’t be because of their pitching.
In other news, it sounds like stuff is about to hit the fan in the Biogenesis case, possibly tomorrow. I will begrudgingly write about this soon, even though I am tired of the story and don’t really want to hear about it anymore. I will at least write about the potential impact on our league though.
Also, a reminder that the trade deadline is coming up soon. Trades must be submitted and accepted by the end of August 15. After that, no trades can be made until after roster cuts early next year. If you are completing a trade which includes 2014 draft picks, both parties must confirm the deal with me via email. I plan on rectifying the inability to trade future draft picks via the web site before next season.