The votes have been counted and the rosters are set for the 19th annual DTBL All-Star Game. The game will take place sometime next week, but the official date and time are TBD. The Demigods will be the host club. Jay will mange the American Division and I will call the shots for the National Division. Jay and I were responsible for breaking any ties in the final vote results and we picked the 23rd man for our respective teams. Without further ado, here are the 2012 DTBL All-Stars:
American Division
Starters:
Pitcher – Matt Cain, Naturals
Catcher – Carlos Ruiz, Gators
First Base – Miguel Cabrera, Naturals
Second Base – Ian Kinsler, Moonshiners
Third Base – David Wright, Moonshiners
Shortstop – Asdrubal Cabrera, Naturals
Outfield – Jose Bautista, Choppers
Outfield – Andrew McCutchen, Naturals
Outfield – Ryan Braun, Jackalope
Reserves:
Catcher – Yadier Molina, Choppers
First Base – Mark Trumbo, Choppers
Third Base – Adrian Beltre, Choppers
Shortstop – Elvis Andrus, Jackalope
Outfield – Curtis Granderson, Choppers
Outfield – Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope
Pitcher – Zack Greinke, Naturals
Pitcher – David Price, Naturals
Pitcher – C.J. Wilson, Choppers
Pitcher – Jered Weaver, Moonshiners
Relief Pitcher – Jim Johnson, Jackalope
Relief Pitcher – Craig Kimbrel, Choppers
Relief Pitcher – Chris Perez, Naturals
Relief Pitcher – Chris Sale, Choppers
National Division
Starters:
Pitcher – Justin Verlander, Kings
Catcher – Buster Posey, Demigods
First Base – David Ortiz, Demigods
Second Base – Robinson Cano, Kings
Third Base – Edwin Encarnacion, Mavericks
Shortstop – Starlin Castro, Mavericks
Outfield – Carlos Beltran, Kings
Outfield – Josh Hamilton, Cougars
Outfield – Carlos Gonzalez, Kings
Reserves:
Catcher – A.J. Pierzynski, Cougars
First Base – Adam Dunn, Mavericks
Second Base – Jason Kipnis, Cougars
Outfield – Adam Jones, Mavericks
Outfield – Mike Trout, Mavericks
Outfield – Matt Holliday, Darkhorses
Pitcher – Gio Gonzalez, Cougars
Pitcher – Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks
Pitcher – Cole Hamels, Demigods
Pitcher – Madison Bumgarner, Cougars
Relief Pitcher – Joel Hanrahan, Cougars
Relief Pitcher – Kenley Jansen, Mavericks
Relief Pitcher – Joe Nathan, Demigods
Relief Pitcher – Jonathan Papelbon, Kings
All-Stars per team:
8 – Choppers
7 – Mavericks, Naturals
6 – Cougars
5 – Kings
4 – Demigods, Jackalope
3 – Moonshiners
1 – Darkhorses, Gators
Adrian Beltre and Matt Holliday were the 23rd players selected for each division. I chose Holliday to make sure the Darkhorses were represented on the roster. There are some interesting names NOT on the list above, namely NL MVP candidate Joey Votto and a pair of Dodgers: Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. The Choppers lead the way with eight All-Stars. Interestingly, the league’s top two teams right now (Jackalope and Moonshiners) only have four and three All-Stars respectively. On the other end of the standings, the bottom two teams (Darkhorses and Gators) only have one All-Star each. One interesting voting fact is that all four National Division relief pitchers were chosen unanimously. Click here to view the full voting results. Much more All-Star Game info will be coming soon.
We’re only in the last week of June, but I’m ready to declare that we have quite a pennant race brewing. At no point has any team in the league asserted its dominance, thus leaving us with a situation where seven out of the ten teams are in a very good position to win the championship. Those seven teams are all within 10 points of first place, with the top five separated by just four points. Somehow, the Mavericks have managed to hold the top spot most of the year, but it has been by the thinnest of margins at most times, including today when they are just 1/2 point clear of the Jackalope.
As we near the half way point of the season, I’m going to take a quick look at each of the ten teams, highlighting some of the key stories for each team. I will start with the three teams who are not currently in the thick of the race and then work my way up to the top of the standings.
Darkhorses
Only a year and a half removed from four consecutive championships, it would be fair to say things have gone downhill since then. While last year was a shocking disappointment for the Darkhorses, this season has been an absolute nightmare. Injuries have been the story of the league this season, but no team has had their season completely ruined by injuries like the Darkhorses. They sit in last place with just 18.5 points, so they are in serious jeopardy of breaking the league’s all time low water mark of 20 points since the league expanded to 10 teams in 1998. If you look at their roster, there is no way they should be this bad. Besides the injuries, incredibly disappointing seasons from Adrian Gonzalez and Tim Lincecum haven’t helped either. If those guys can turn it around and Chris Carpenter, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner return soon, maybe they can gain a little momentum and avoid a historically bad season.
Gators
Still a work in progress, and not really a threat this year, but things are looking up for the Gators. Their ridiculously bad offense from ’11 has improved a bit and their pitching staff is respectable. But there is still a lot of work to do. Their huge pre-draft trade with the Mavericks hasn’t really worked out. Nelson Cruz has been so-so and Mark Reynolds has provided virtually nothing. They could have used those picks to improve in other areas, but what’s done is done. The first draft pick they did make, Melky Cabrera in round three, has been a huge surprise, currently third in the league with a .355 average. The Gators appear to be headed for another high draft slot next season. With some exciting young players coming into the league again next year, maybe they will have an opportunity to grab one of them.
Demigods
The third team not currently in the title race is the Demigods. At the beginning of the year, they looked like a team ready to make a run at the championship. But like the Darkhorses, the Demigods have been sabotaged by injuries. One in particular: Matt Kemp. In April, Kemp appeared to be a shoe-in for his second straight DTBL MVP award and a possible Triple Crown. But since then, he has missed the better part of the last two months. Who knows what he will provide when he returns? But a healthy Kemp and Evan Longoria could get the Demigods back into contention.
Cougars
Although they are only in seventh place, this is the best Cougars team in a long time. They are just 9.5 points behind the Mavericks and could get even closer if a couple of their pitchers turn things around. Josh Hamilton has carried the offense, despite slowing down a bit of late. Jason Kipnis has been one of the biggest steals of the draft, providing big time power and speed at a weak second base position. Many were surprised when the Cougars passed on Stephen Strasburg with the first pick of the draft. That may not have been a wise decision, but the Cougars made up for it by grabbing his Nationals teammate Gio Gonzalez in the second round. Gonzalez’s numbers are pretty similar to Strasburg’s and you have to figure the Cougars would not have taken Gonzalez if they had gone with Strasburg in round one.
Choppers
The transformation of the Choppers has been quite remarkable. Last year they were all offense with a questionable pitching staff. This year, it is just the opposite. They are second in the league with 40 pitching points, but only have 20 batting points. One player is mostly responsible for the pitching turnaround: Chris Sale. Over the years, many teams have benefited from an extra starting pitcher in a relief pitching slot. But normally, that pitcher doesn’t put up All-Star caliber stats like Sale is doing this year. He’s keeping together a staff whose starting rotation is bandaged up with a bunch of free agent signings to fill in for other injured starters. The injuries to the Choppers rotation could be a huge problem in the upcoming weeks/months. But there is certainly reason to believe the offense will pick it up. Jose Bautista is heating up, now in a tie for the league lead in home runs. He could help the Choppers pick up some offensive points to move even closer to first place.
Kings
It is hard to say that a team four points out of first has been a huge disappointment, but to some degree, I think that can be said about the Kings. The pitching staff has been atrocious as a whole. They are ninth in the league in ERA and near the bottom in WHIP and wins too. Justin Verlander needs some help. Recently, the Kings have done a poor job of rotating their extra starting pitchers into the lineup. In the last eight days, they missed out on a one hit shutout by Ervin Santana and seven great innings from Edwin Jackson last night. If they could ever start picking the right five starting pitchers for a given week, they could be on to something. For the most part, the offense has been great, leading the league in batting points. But the lack of production from two Nationals, Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse, has been troubling. The Kings are still in pretty good shape despite being in fifth place though.
Naturals
Much of what I wrote about the Choppers also applies to the Naturals. They have transformed from an offensive juggernaut with a mediocre pitching staff to a team with a disappointing offense and the best pitching staff in the league. Matt Cain, Zack Greinke and David Price have been outstanding for the Naturals rotation. Jordan Zimmermann would be right there too if he would ever get run support and win some games. The Naturals have to be considered one of the most dangerous teams heading into the second half because you have to figure their offense will improve. Having said that, the recent injury to Troy Tulowitzki could be extremely costly. He’s expected to miss the next 6-8 weeks and they don’t have an obvious candidate to pick up the slack.
Moonshiners
The Moonshiners are perhaps the league’s most intriguing team right now. They have suffered some very costly injuries to their pitching staff, with the most devastating one coming this past week when Brandon Beachy was lost for the season with a torn UCL. Beachy was leading the league in ERA and had a sub 1.00 WHIP. But one free agent signing may have saved their season. Since joining the Moonshiners a month ago, R.A. Dickey has not allowed an earned run. Read that again. Dickey has a 0.00 ERA, 0.495 WHIP, four wins and 42 strike outs in just 34.1 innings with the Moonshiners. The 37 year old knuckleballer has been the league’s best story this year and may have a huge say in determining if the Moonshiners can win their first DTBL championship.
Jackalope
It really can’t get any tighter at the top of the standings. As of today, the defending champions sit one half point behind the Mavericks. Batting points: 35.5 for the Mavericks, 35.0 for the Jackalope. Pitching points: both have 33. So both teams are holding their own in batting and pitching. The Jackalope got off to a bit of a slow start, but ever since their two biggest stars, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun, have started to heat up, so has this team. I think they have to be considered the favorites at this point, especially if they are able to get anything out of Ryan Howard in the second half. Their dominating rotation from last year hasn’t been quite the same this season. But Felix Hernandez has been better of late, Cliff Lee will eventually win a game and Roy Halladay should provide he boost when he gets healthy. As long as they keep it close, I like their chances down the stretch.
Mavericks
This has been a pretty remarkable season for the Mavericks, following two consecutive eighth place finishes. Despite the incredible tightness of the race, they have managed to hold onto first place most of the year. Their strategy of stockpiling draft picks is paying off. Their pre-draft trade with the Gators may alter the course of this league for years to come. The two players they acquired with the draft picks they received in that trade: Stephen Strasburg and Mike Trout. Strasburg leads the league in strike outs and is not far behind in ERA, WHIP and wins too. What the Nationals decide to do with him when he reaches that magical 160 IP mark could have a dramatic impact on this league. I’ll probably write about this more when that date gets closer because I have a strong opinion on the matter. Meanwhile, I’ll be honest, I thought Trout was a bit of a gamble in the early second round because I wasn’t so sure the Angels would be able to make room for him this season. Boy was I wrong. He is hitting .351 and will probably be leading the league in stolen bases before June is over. If Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Jones keep hitting home runs at their current rates, the Mavericks are going to be tough to catch, despite all the teams nipping on their heels.
It’s almost getting to the point where no hitters aren’t even worth discussing, and perfect games aren’t terribly rare either. But nonetheless, Natruals right hander Matt Cain pitched the 22nd perfect game in MLB history last night, arguably one of the most dominating pitching performances of all time. In addition to not allowing a base runner, Cain also struck out a career high 14 hitters during the Giants 10-0 victory over the Astros. The 14 strike outs matched Sandy Koufax for the most K’s in a perfect game.
Using Bill James’ Game Score statistic, Cain’s outing was tied for the second best pitched game of all time, trailing only Kerry Wood’s 1 hit, 20 strike out game in 1998. By the way, Wood’s game was also against the Astros, but a lineup that featured a couple possible future Hall of Famers. The same cannot be said of the Astros lineup last night. But that should not diminish Cain’s accomplishment.
While there have only been 22 perfect games in MLB history, five of them have occurred in the past four seasons, including two this year. Cain is the first DTBL player to do it this year tough since Phil Humber is not on the league roster. The last DTBL perfect game before last night belonged to Roy Halladay in May of 2010.
The history of perfect games is quite fascinating. There had been a gap of 34 years without one before Don Larsen threw a perfect game in the 1956 World Series. Then there was another 13 year drought between 1968 and 1981. 13 of the 22 have occurred in the past 32 years and nine since this league was formed in 1993. There have been a lot of theories as to why they have been so frequent in recent years. Some are fairly obvious: there are a lot more teams, and therefore more games played than there were in the first half of the 20th century. The end of the steroid era has led to better pitching numbers across the board in the last half dozen years or so. One theory I like is more about the increase in no hitters than perfect games: it could have a lot to do with the diminished focus on batting average as a significant stat. Strike outs are way up in the current era. It stands to reason that with fewer balls being put into play, fewer hits will fall in. But this is only a partial explanation since the MLB-wide batting average is not even close to historical lows. Whatever the reasons may be, perfect games are still extremely impressive achievements.
With his outing last night, Cain moved into the DTBL lead in WHIP with a miniscule 0.853 mark. Although he’s not likely to keep it there all season, only two DTBL players have finished a full season with a lower WHIP. His 2.18 ERA, eight wins and 96 strike outs are all in the top three of the league as well. Cain has been a solid performer for the Naturals since 2007. His highest ERA was a very respectable 3.57 in his DTBL rookie season (’07). Yet wins have been hard to come by, mostly due to the Giants anemic offense in recent years. Cain has never reached the 15 win mark, though he seems to be a pretty good bet to do it this year since he’s already more than half way there. He leads the Naturals in all pitching categories except for saves, so he deserves most of the credit for their league high 41 pitching points. The Naturals are currently in fourth place, but just eight points out of first. Their batting/pitching numbers are almost reversed from last year when it was their hitting that led them to a second place finish.
Cain was only one of several pitchers who put up extremely impressive numbers on Wednesday night. The Cardinals’ Lance Lynn matched Cain’s strike out total of 14, allowing three hits in 7+ scoreless innings. And R.A. Dickey nearly made it two no hitters in one night. He allowed just one infield hit in a complete game. The Mets are appealing to try to get the scoring of the one hit changed to an error, but I would be absolutely shocked if the appeal is upheld. Dickey has been an amazing story all year. Last night, he broke the Mets team record for consecutive scoreless innings before allowing an unearned run in the ninth. But since the Moonshiners signed him as a free agent a few weeks ago, he is yet to allow an earned run in 25 1/3 innings. He has won 10 games this year (three with the Moonshiners).
Finally, following my last blog post a few weeks ago, there were a few comments about possible rule changes for next season. I decided to start a Forum thread to get a discussion going. If you haven’t read it yet, please check it out and provide any feedback you may have.
Memorial Day is usually a good point in the season to take stock in how the baseball season is going and examine where it may be headed. As usual, there are hitters and pitchers who are vastly exceeding expectations, and have done so for long enough to make you think it may not be a fluke. Some of those players are helping to put their DTBL teams at or near the top of the standings. However, there seems to be a much bigger factor in determining a team’s success (or lack there of) this season: injuries.
Almost daily, there is another key player going down to an injury, whether it be a minor day-to-day issue, or one that has the player headed to season ending surgery. We’ve had torn ACLs, torn UCLs, sprained knees, torn hamstrings, broken hands, blurred vision, chronic illness, you name it. It started in spring training when two closers were lost for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery (Naturals’ Joakim Soria, Jackalope Ryan Madson). Two DTBL first round draft picks are yet to play a game this season (Kings’ Michael Morse, Choppers’ Michael Pineda). It is never a good sign when two of the most mentioned names in baseball are Tommy John and Dr. James Andrews.
Even the previously indestructible players are falling victim to this plague. The surest thing in baseball, Choppers’ Mariano Rivera, tore his ACL while shagging fly balls. And just yesterday, the always reliable Roy Halladay (Jackalope) was lost for 6-8 weeks due to a lat strain. Halladay wasn’t the only ace to go down yesterday either. Jered Weaver (Moonshiners) was pulled from his start in the first inning with a back problem. Fellow Moonshiner starting pitcher Ted Lilly hit the DL as well, as did red hot Kings catcher Jonathan LuCroy who suffered the freakiest injury of the season, breaking his hand due to a falling suitcase in a hotel room.
In those last two paragraphs, I named nine different players, and that didn’t even begin to scratch the surface. Every DTBL team has been affected, some more than others. I probably need to take a closer look at each roster to see if this is still the case, but prior to this most recent string of injuries, there were three teams in particular who had been absolutely decimated: the Darkhorses, Choppers and Demigods. All three are around the double digit mark in total number of players who have spent time on the DL, including some very critical losses. I suspect the Moonshiners are moving close to this list as well after losing 40% of their rotation yesterday. The Darkhorses injury problems were so bad, for a while they were fielding a major league roster with at least three disabled players. The Choppers and Demigods minors are/were filled with virtually nothing but injured players.
The Mavericks have been in first place virtually the entire season. In large part, that is because they had been the healthiest team in the league. Until about a week ago, their only injured player was 12th round draft pick, and projected bench player, Lorenzo Cain. But now the Mavericks have joined the rest of the league after having lost Neftali Feliz and Austin Jackson. Still, they are in better shape than most. With the exception of two pre-season injuries (Madson and Ryan Howard), the Jackalope had been relatively healthy as well, which helped guide them past the Mavericks for a couple days last week. But now this Halladay injury could be a major problem for the defending champions.
On a positive note, these injuries have certainly restrained any one team from running out to a huge lead, keeping most of the league very much in the mix. Half of the league is within 10 points of first place and two others are within 20. So if any of these teams can get relatively healthy, there are plenty of points to be gained. But that “healthy” term seems inconceivable for some teams at this point.
It was suggested to me by one league member that we look into adding additional DL slot(s) to our rosters in the future. I am not necessarily opposed to this idea, but keep in mind that such a change would require a number of other adjustments as well, like the total number of players on the league roster and maybe a change to the free agent signing limit too. This is a conversation I’m willing to have though if the consensus is that change is needed. Obviously, no change will be made for this season though. In the mean time, hopefully some of this madness will come to an end and we’ll be able to determine a champion based on player performance rather than healthy body tallies.
Hopefully my next article will be about player(s) who are actually contributing to their DTBL squads!
On Tuesday night, Cougars outfielder Josh Hamilton became the 16th player in Major League Baseball history to hit four home runs in a game. For good measure, he added a double and went 5 for 5 as the Rangers crushed the Orioles 10-3 at Camden Yards in Baltimore. As much attention as perfect games receive, including Phil Humber’s last month, the four home run game has been a rarer feat. No player had done it since Carlos Delgado late in the 2003 season. Hamilton is the fourth DTBL player to do it, joining Delgado (Darkhorses), Shawn Green (Darkhorses, 2002) and Mike Cameron (Kings, 2002). Hamilton’s 18 total bases set a new American League record and was just one shy of the MLB record (Green).
Hamilton has been on a tear all season. He hit his league leading 15th home run tonight in his first game since the historic night. Add the one he hit on Monday night and that is six in the series in Baltimore. Entering today, he had a comfortable lead in RBIs (36) and batting average (.406) too. So, approaching the 1/4 mark of the season, he is leading all three of the Triple Crown categories. Hamilton and defending league MVP Matt Kemp have been the two most dominating offensive player this season by a wide margin.
Josh Hamilton has been carrying a much improved Cougars offense this season. They lead the DTBL in RBIs and are second in home runs. Last year, they finished in ninth and eighth in those categories. Overall, they find themselves in seventh place, but closely bunched with about half the league.
A 2008 second round draft pick by the Cougars, Hamilton has 111 DTBL career home runs with a very impressive .316 average. Interestingly, he reached a minor DTBL career milestone on Tuesday night, passing the 400 RBI mark. Even numbered years have been especially impressive for Hamilton. He hit 32 home runs and drove in 130 in his DTBL rookie campaign of ’08. Then in 2010, he cruised to the batting title, hitting at a .361 clip. 2012 is looking like another special even numbered year for Hamilton.
I had a blog post all planned out for this week in which I intended to detail the extent in which injuries are decimating the league as a whole, and a couple teams in particular. But Hamilton’s historic achievement will push that article to a later date. I have a feeling it will still be relevant in another week or two.
Well into the second full day of the regular season, it appeared the early narrative of the 2012 season would be more of the same from 2011: dominating pitching performances with runs being at a premium. But by the time the first full week was in the books, a different pitching-themed story emerged. Across the league, closers were blowing games like their jobs didn’t depend on it. No one was immune. Even the immortal Mariano Rivera blew his first save opportunity of the season. But for the most part, these games were being blown by closers who had a less than firm grip on the ninth inning job as it was. If this trend continues, expect bullpen changes to be made very soon.
Here are some numbers to illustrate the early struggles of relief pitchers. Since we don’t keep track of blown saves in this league, I’m going to use ERA instead. Last season, the cumulative league ERA was 3.39 for the full year. That’s a very low number which goes to show just how good the pitching was in 2011. But relief pitchers were even better. The league ERA of all relief pitchers was 3.02. In the first week of 2012, the total league ERA is up significantly, 45 points, to 3.84 and the bullpen ERA has increased even more, 53 points, to 3.55. So relief pitchers are largely responsible for this early inflation. I don’t have the stats to prove it, but usually the pitchers are ahead of the hitters this time of year. So it’s possible we could see these numbers go up even more.
Since the only bullpen job that carries significant weight in a fantasy league is that of closer, it will be very interesting to see if some changes are on the way. Most of the closers who have struggled were not on solid ground to begin with. Alfredo Aceves was named the Red Sox closer the day before the opener, following the injury to Andrew Bailey. He proceeded to blow his first two appearances (one save opp, one tied game) and had an infinity ERA/WHIP before picking up a save on Monday. The other prime candidate, Mark Melancon, hasn’t been much better. If neither of these two prove capable, will they move Daniel Bard back to the pen? Sergio Santos also blew his first two save opportunities. Although he was a bit more of an established closer than Aceves, he has to be looking over his shoulder with veteran closer Francisco Cordero in the Blue Jays bullpen as well. Sticking in the AL East, Tampa Bay initially leaned on Joel Peralta to fill in for the injured Kyle Farnsworth, but he has already been replaced by Fernando Rodney.
There is another category of closers who are probably less likely to lose their job after a couple bad outings, but aren’t great bets to finish the year in that role either. These are guys who are almost universally acknowledged to not be the best relief pitcher in their respective bullpens: guys like Chris Perez, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Broxton. Perez could be replaced by Vinnie Pestano at any moment, and that time may be sooner than later if he blows another three run lead like he did on Opening Day. The Rangers bullpen is full of guys with dominating stuff, but at this stage of his career, Nathan is not one of those guys. For a team that fancies itself as one of the World Series favorites, it remains to be seen if they will to continue to use their fourth or fifth best reliever as the closer. Broxton was the obvious candidate to close for the Royals when they lost Joakim Soria to Tommy John surgery, since Broxton has closed before. But on a young, up-and-coming team, it might make more sense to see if someone like Greg Holland or Aaron Crow can do the job. Also, if Broxton does pitch well, he would be an ideal candidate to get traded to a contender later this summer.
Of course, an argument could be made that you don’t necessarily want to have your best relief pitcher as the closer. Depending on how a bullpen is managed, it is quite possible that a set-up guy will pitch in a lot more pressure innings than a closer ever will. The role of protecting a one run lead in the 8th is probably more important than trying to save a three run game in the 9th. I highly recommend checking out this recent article by Jonah Keri where he argues that saves should be replaced by a more meaningful stat for relief pitchers. I think he’s right, but I also think most MLB managers will continue to go with their pre-appointed closer whenever there is a three run game in the 9th inning. So figuring out who that guy will be is still a crucial part of fantasy baseball.
There have been three MLB regular season games played so far, but most teams will get things started Thursday and Friday. Taking a look at the new season, I decided to try something new this year. I had my hands on a relatively fresh copy of 2012 MLB rosters for the baseball simulation game I’ve been playing for years, Out of the Park Baseball. So I decided to put them to good use. I quickly created a DTBL league within OOTP, assigned players to their DTBL teams, then simulated a full 162 game schedule.
Before I get into this too much, I should say up front that this simulation is almost worthless. Just because a team did poorly in this OOTP sim means absolutely nothing about their chances in the upcoming season. The list of reasons why is too long to go through, but here are a few. Since the game is simulating regulation baseball games, only nine batters can be in a team’s lineup at a given time, as opposed to our league which has 14 active batting slots. So depth is far more important in the DTBL. Next, this sim has DTBL players facing nothing but other DTBL players. So there are no weak pitchers for hitters to pad their stats against. Same for pitchers. Finally, IT IS A COMPUTER SIMULATION! As much as I love OOTP and think it is the best baseball sim out there, it can’t possibly perfectly replicate player performance, particularly future performance.
But putting that aside, I just thought this would be a fun thing to do before the season started. I let the AI control all lineup/pitching staff decisions, but turned off all transactions and injuries. So each team consists of 25 players, 14 batters and 11 pitchers. For the most part, I used the Opening Day DTBL rosters, plus a couple of bench pitchers for each team. This meant some injured guys who are going to miss a decent portion of the season didn’t make the cut. Once I had all the rosters set, I immediately simulated the entire season, which took about 5 minutes. Here are the results:
It was a close race most of the season, but the Kings prevailed in the end with a 97-65 record, beating the Jackalope by five games. Honestly, I was hoping my team wouldn’t win this thing because it makes the whole thing look like it was rigged, but I assure you that wasn’t the case. I didn’t create the players, nor did I do any of the managing of my team. The Kings won mostly thanks to the league’s best offense, led by Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce and Ryan Zimmerman. Very few Kings had poor seasons in this sim.
A few other things stuck out. First, the top four teams were the same four who finished at the top of the 2011 DTBL standings, though not in the same order. The Gators had a rough go of it, losing 105 games and finishing in last place by 17 games. They finished last in the league in runs scored and runs allowed, not a good combination.
As for the players, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder backed up their enormous offseason contracts by finishing first and second in the league in home runs. Pujols was also the league MVP. Cliff Lee won the Cy Young Award thanks to his league leading 17 wins. Not that there were many eligible players to begin with, but Yonder Alonso was named the Rookie of the Year.
If you have a lot of time on your hands, feel free to click through all the stats and info you find from those links above. I’m sure you’ll find some ridiculous AI roster management decisions for your team as well as some inexplicably poor performances from certain players.
Now that I got that out of my system, how about some real baseball? Enjoy the two remaining Opening Days!
For the second consecutive year, the DTBL Draft kicked off with a first round featuring nine straight selections of DTBL rookies with a veteran finishing up the round in the tenth slot. In fact, if you go back one more year, DTBL rookies have occupied the first eight picks of the draft for three straight seasons. The Cougars got things started by selecting a Canadian, third baseman Brett Lawrie. This was one of many newsworthy items from the first half of the draft. Almost one week after the 20th annual DTBL Draft began, we have six rounds in the books.
Although the Cougars have had a rough go of it in recent years, this was the first time they had the first pick in the draft since 2006 when they selected Grady Sizemore. The Cougars obtained the first pick by winning a coin flip, which broke the tie between them and the Gators. Lawrie was certainly projected to be one of the first players taken in this draft, but I think most had assumed the Cougars would take Stephen Strasburg instead. The Cougars decision to go with Lawrie is completely justifiable and understandable though. Lawrie broke onto the scene last summer and hit .293 with nine home runs and seven stolen bases in just 150 MLB at bats. He will fit nicely into the Cougars infield, which was quite thin heading into this draft. While Strasburg could have become their ace for many years to come, the risk was ultimately too high for a team which already has another star pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery this season (Adam Wainwright). Lawrie was the much safer choice.
Without having talked to Marc about this, I suspect his plan in acquiring the second pick in the draft was to add Lawrie and Eric Hosmer to the Mavericks stable of young hitters. But when Strasburg became available, the plan changed. The Mavericks acquired the second pick in the draft from the Gators (along with the 12th overall pick) for Nelson Cruz and Mark Reynolds. The Mavericks used that pick to grab the phenom Strasburg, whose DTBL debut was pushed back a year after missing almost all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Still, he was quite impressive in his September return, compiling a 1.50 ERA, 0.708 WHIP and 24 strike outs in 24 innings pitched. He joins a Mavericks pitching staff that already features Clayton Kershaw. That could be a scary duo for years to come. The Mavericks also possessed their own pick at #3 and used it to select first baseman Eric Hosmer. This was the second straight year that the Mavericks had the second and third picks of the draft. Strasburg and Hosmer were the sixth and seventh players selected in the first round by the Mavs in the past three years. All seven of these players have been very young with tremendous upside, some of which has yet to materialize. More on the Mavericks youth movement in a bit.
The Darkhorses aren’t used to picking so early in the draft, but have to be pleased with what it allowed them to do. With the fourth pick, the Darkhorses selected young starting pitcher Matt Moore. Some have called Moore the left-handed Strasburg. In fact, many believe the potential for those two pitchers is nearly identical. Moore didn’t make his MLB debut until last September, but he made such an immediate impact that he wound up starting a game for the Rays in the postseason. So he has just as many career starts in the postseason as MLB regular season (one each). The Choppers used the fifth pick on yet another fireballing youngster. They selected Michael Pineda, who was the key piece of the biggest offseason MLB trade. The Yankees acquired Pineda from Seattle. Fantasy experts are torn on if this makes Pineda more or less valuable as a fantasy pitcher. On one hand, he is moving from a team that couldn’t score runs to one of the best offensive teams in baseball. But on the other hand, he is leaving pitching friendly Safeco Field to play half his games in the launching pad of Yankee Stadium. Regardless, he is expected to be a star for years to come and gives the Choppers rotation a huge boost.
The next two picks were first basemen. The Demigods selected Freddie Freeman with the sixth pick and the Kings followed by taking Michael Morse. Freeman is quite a bit younger than Morse, who didn’t have his breakout until his late 20s. Freeman will also be a first baseman for years to come, while Morse may find himself in the outfield for the Kings next year. Last year, it was catchers the flew off the board with three going in the first seven picks. This year it was first basemen. Surprisingly, there was not a first baseman selected until the fifth round a year ago, so it was obviously a position of need for several teams this time around.
Perhaps the steal of the first round belonged to the Moonshiners who were able to grab the clear cut number one outfielder available with the eighth pick in the draft. The Moonshiners selected the five-tool Desmond Jennings, a guy they probably would have considered taking if they had the second or third pick in the draft. This is two straight years that things have worked out extremely well for the Moonshiners in the first round. Last year, they wound up trading their pick for Jeff Weaver, who immediately retooled their rotation. Following the Jennings pick, the Naturals took another budding superstar in catcher Jesus Montero. Montero was the key piece going to opposite direction in the Pineda deal. Like Pineda, there is some concern that the ballpark switch could have a negative impact on Montero’s fantasy value. However, he played so few games at Yankee Stadium that it remains to be seen what his true potential will be. Finally, as usual, the defending champions used their first round pick to plug a hole rather than speculating on the future. The Jackalope selected second baseman Howie Kendrick with the last pick of the first round.
A few more interesting facts about the first round. As mentioned, two of the players were traded for each other this offseason (Pineda and Montero). There were two pairs of MLB teammates selected (Strasburg/Morse and Moore/Jennings). And there were a combined six first basemen and starting pitchers selected, with only one player at those positions going in the first round a year ago.
When looking at the players taken in the first round, it struck me that almost all of those guys were extremely highly touted prospects just a couple years ago and not too many of them came out of nowhere. To see if my hunch was correct, I looked at the 2010 Baseball American top prospects list, and was amused by what I found. BA’s top 10 from two years ago featured eight players who have been selected in the first round of the DTBL Draft in 2011 or 2012. Strasburg was #2, Montero #4 and Jennings #6. Last year’s first rounders included Jason Heyward (#1), Mike Stanton (#3), Buster Posey (#7), Pedro Alvarez (#8) and Carlos Santana (#10). The only players from this list who haven’t been picked in the first round are Brian Matusz and Neftali Feliz who were Mavericks draft picks in 2010.
Beyond the first round, there have been some other interesting developments as well. The Mavericks have continued to go young with almost every pick. Here are the ages of their first six picks: 23, 22, 20, 23, 23, 25 (Strasburg, Hosmer, Mike Trout, Dee Gordon, Addison Reed, Jemile Weeks). All six of those players are DTBL rookies. I’ll give credit to the Mavericks for sticking to a plan. We’ll see if it pays off down the road.
The Demigods might be wondering if they made some mistakes with their cuts last December. Six players they cut were selected in the first 31 picks of the draft: Kendrick (#10), Gio Gonzalez (11), Matt Garza (15), Jason Motte (19), Carlos Beltran (27) and Grant Balfour (31). This would seem to mean one of two things: either the Demigods made some poor decisions with their cuts, or they had an incredibly deep team last season. I’m inclined to lean towards the latter. In looking at their keepers, there really aren’t any obvious players who should have been cut. Also, they made those cuts before knowing Gonzalez and Beltran would move to more favorable locations and Balfour would become a closer candidate.
There are plenty of other items I could cover, but I’m going to wrap this up. Hopefully, we’ll complete this draft around this time next week, giving us a little bit of time to prepare for the start of the season. Thanks to everyone for keeping the draft moving at a good pace. Enjoy this incredible weather most of the country is experiencing. And bring on some March Madness!
For the third consecutive year, the Mavericks will have multiple first round picks in the DTBL Draft. And for the second year in a row, they possess two of the first three picks. The Mavericks made a pair of trades this week, continuing their youth movement. In the first, they actually traded away a pick, sending their third round selection to the Naturals in exchange for second baseman Rickie Weeks. They followed that up by acquiring the second and twelfth overall picks in the upcoming draft from the Gators for outfielder Nelson Cruz and third baseman Mark Reynolds.
Assuming they stand pat, when the first round finishes next week, the Mavericks will have made seven first round selections in the three most recent drafts. The first two years have seen mixed results from this strategy, but it is way too early to write it off as a failure. With an opportunity to pick two of the top three players available this year, one would think they have a great opportunity to find a superstar in the making this time around. But of course, there is also an inherent risk in betting on young players.
When I first saw the details of the Mavericks/Gators trade, I thought it was a steal for the Mavericks. Acquiring two of the first twelve picks in a draft is a pretty solid return, and giving up early picks can be a dangerous strategy for a rebuilding team. However, I have come around on this after taking a closer look. A very solid argument could be made that Nelson Cruz is a better player than anyone available in this year’s draft. In fact, most fantasy player rankings I have seen have Cruz listed ahead of everyone who will be in the draft pool. He instantly becomes the Gators best offensive player, and along with Reynolds, should immediately improve what was possibly the worst offensive team in league history last season. The ’11 Gators didn’t have a single player drive in over 85 runs and only Dan Uggla hit more than 25 home runs. Cruz and Reynolds surpassed those numbers in both categories. The Gators couldn’t afford to miss on improving their offense and these two players are much safer bets than anyone they could have drafted. Plus, the Gators have had a string of first round picks that haven’t exactly panned out, so maybe it is just as well not to have to worry about a continuation of that trend this year.
It wouldn’t make much sense for me to predict who the Mavericks will take with all of their early picks, but I think it is safe to assume they will go with more youngsters. I also feel confident in predicting they will not select a catcher with a top three pick for the third consecutive season. The re-acquisition of Weeks was an interesting move as well. When healthy, he is one of the most productive middle infielders, which was a major area of weakness for the Mavericks last year. Weeks was a first round pick by the Mavericks back in 2006 and spent three years with the club before he was released in ’08. His best season came with the Naturals in 2010 when he hit 29 home runs and drove in 83, obliterating his previous career highs. Last season was cut short due to an injury, but he still hit 19 home runs. The Mavericks will probably be the hardest team to predict for the upcoming season. They have the potential to be the league’s most improved team. They have an interesting situation with two relief pitchers already on the roster who are expected to be starters (Neftali Feliz and Daniel Bard), so they could potentially go with a seven man rotation. However, if that doesn’t pan out and the early draft picks don’t work out either, it could be another long year. I don’t think any other team has a wider gap between their potential ceiling and floor.
As for the Naturals, Weeks was expendable because they have two other quality middle infielders in Troy Tulowitzki and Asdrubal Cabrera. They will have plenty of opportunities to address second base in the draft. Generally speaking, they don’t have too many holes to fill, so the extra draft pick can be used to build depth at pretty much any position they would like. The Naturals should be a title contender for the fourth straight year.
My goal is to have the draft pool posted in the next couple days. I’m looking at one week from tonight, Thursday March 8, as the potential start date of the 2012 DTBL Draft. It’s hard to believe we have reached another milestone. This will be the 20th DTBL Draft.
Earlier today, the Baseball Writers Association of America did what they normally do and awarded the National League MVP to the best player from one of the best teams rather than giving it to a player on a mediocre team with possibly the better overall statistics. Meanwhile, DTBL members did what they normally do and voted stats over team placement. Champion Jackalope outfielder Ryan Braun won the NL MVP, but Demigods outfielder Matt Kemp is the 2011 DTBL Most Valuable Player.
In 2011, Matt Kemp was the textbook definition of a five category star. He was among the league leaders in all five categories. He led the league with 126 runs batted in. His .324 batting average ranked seventh, 39 home runs was third, fourth in runs scored with 115 and was third in stolen bases with 40. He was only one home run shy of reaching the esteemed 40/40 Club (home runs and stolen bases).
Probably the most under-reported story line of the ’11 season was Kemp’s attempt to become the first MLB triple crown winner in 44 years. I’m not sure exactly why that was the case. It was probably a combination of the Dodgers irrelevance, the thrilling late season playoff races, and my own personal theory: the advancement of sabermetrics in baseball. The three triple crown categories just don’t hold the same significance they once did, especially batting average. Whatever the reason, Kemp wound up falling a little short as Braun edged him out for the NL batting title. He was not particularly close to winning the DTBL triple crown though with several AL batters, in addition to Braun, having higher averages.
The Demigods were one of the league’s pleasant surprises this year, jumping from last place in 2010 to a fifth place finish. In particular, their offense was light years better than last year’s squad. They finished with 43 batting points, which was second behind only the Naturals. Kemp was clearly the main reason for that. He led the team in all five categories (tied with Ichiro in stolen bases). A first round pick back in 2008, Kemp has been a significant fixture in the Demigods’ lineup the last four seasons. But he easily exceeded career highs in every category this year.
The MVP voting was very interesting. Even though there were a lot of compelling candidates, Kemp won the award fairly easily. He received eight first place votes, one second and one fourth, for a total of 90 points. NL MVP Braun came in second with a single first place vote and 63 points. Kemp and Braun were the only two players to appear on all ten ballots. Finishing third was Darkhorses outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury with 47 points. Then there was a bit of a gap. Choppers outfielder Curtis Granderson came in fourth. He received the final first place vote, but only appeared on half the ballots and accumulated 20 points. Naturals first baseman Miguel Cabrera came in fifth, and finally, Rookie of the Year winner and Choppers outfielder Jose Bautista finished sixth.
As alluded to earlier, DTBL MVP usually seems to take on a different meaning than AL and NL MVP. The baseball writers clearly put a premium on the success (or lack there of) of a player’s team. However, team success rarely seems to matter in the DTBL vote. This is very apparent by the opposite results of the NL MVP and DTBL MVP votes, despite the fact that Braun played for the DTBL Champions. Personally, I think it makes sense for the DTBL award to be all about the stats. After all, that’s what fantasy baseball is all about. Meanwhile, another MLB MVP debate popped up with Justin Verlander winning the AL MVP. Obviously, that debate doesn’t occur in this league since we don’t make pitchers eligible for the MVP award. It’s actually kind of interesting because pitchers are really more valuable in fantasy baseball than they are in the real game since they account for exactly half of the league’s points, despite fewer pitchers than batters appearing on active rosters at any given time. An argument could be made that the DTBL Cy Young winner is really more valuable than the DTBL MVP in most seasons. But the main reason why I don’t make pitchers eligible for the MVP is because they have their own award. Perhaps the MVP should be called something else to stop this debate (the Babe Ruth Award?). Anyway, I digress…. I just found these MVP discussions to be especially interesting this year.
Roster cuts will be due very soon, so you might want to start figuring out who you are going to keep. In the mean time, have a Happy Thanksgiving!
