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Mavericks Stars Dominate May

Thursday, June 2nd, 2016


I’ve decided to make a slight alteration to my monthly awards posts.  Since those have become pretty much the only articles I ever write anymore, I’m going to make them a little more comprehensive, reviewing the league as a whole a little more and focusing less on the two players who won the monthly awards.  The exact contents of the monthly articles won’t be consistent, other than listing the weekly and monthly award winners.  Sometimes I’ll recap the month and take a temperature of the league title race.  But other times I may have a specific topic of interest to write about.  This month, it will be pretty basic:  a brief rundown of all ten teams at the 1/3 mark of the season.

The story of the year so far in the DTBL has to be the Kings attempt to go from worst to first.  They’ve held the top spot in the standings for a couple weeks now and even had a double digit lead at one point.  Last year was a bit of an aberration from the usually strong Kings, but I’m not sure anyone saw this coming.  The offense has been the best in the league, but the pitching staff has been the huge surprise.  What looked like a debilitating weakness, their staff is actually above average so far.  Jeff Samardzija and Aaron Nola have been especially key additions.

The Kings have plenty of company near the top of the league though.  Unsurprisingly, the Mavericks have the best pitching staff in the league.  They are dominating everyone in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, to the point where their staff would really need to fall apart for them not to bank those 30 points.  As you’ll see in a bit, May was an especially strong month for the Mavericks, led by their two biggest stars.  The three other teams in the top half of the standings are a little more balanced between hitting and pitching compared to the Kings and Mavericks.  The Choppers have had a really strong year on both sides of the ledger.  The Demigods may have been the best team in the league in May (I should probably put numbers to this at some point), thanks in no small part to the return of Jose Fernandez to the ranks of the elite pitchers in baseball.  Besides the Kings, the next most positively surprising team has to be the Gators who have been in striking distance of first place all season so far.  All of these five teams should feel pretty good about their current standing.

On the other hand, the other five teams are surely disappointed with how things are going so far in 2016.  The Jackalope were due for regression after their magical 2015, but 25 points out of the lead through two months was certainly unexpected.  Some of it can be blamed on injuries to key players, but there are teams above them with even more injured guys.  Obviously, this team has the talent to get back into the race in a hurry.  The Darkhorses are having a great season with the bats, but their pitching staff has been woeful, currently sitting at just 10 points.  That will need to improve soon.  The Naturals, usually one of the best offensive teams in the league, have certainly not been that thus far.  Nolan Arenado is doing his part, but he could use some help.  The Moonshiners have had a rough go of it with the bats too, but their pitching staff has also taken some huge steps backwards, most notably Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke.  Now add the misery of Felix Hernandez landing on the DL.  Finally, not much has gone right for the Cougars in the first two months.  They have been entrenched in last place for several weeks now.

Here are the weekly and monthly award winners for May 2016.

Batters of the Week:

Week 5 (5/2 – 5/8) - Robinson Cano, Kings
Week 6 (5/9 – 5/15) – Todd Frazier, Darkhorses
Week 7 (5/16 – 5/22) - Mike Trout, Mavericks
Week 8 (5/23 – 5/29) - Joe Mauer, Demigods

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 5 (5/2 – 5/8) - Jose Quintana, Gators
Week 6 (5/9 – 5/15) - Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
Week 7 (5/16 – 5/22) - Madison Bumgarner, Cougars
Week 8 (5/23 – 5/29) - Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks

Week 6 exposed a flaw in my code for awarding the weekly honors.  For both batters and pitchers, I had to manually change it to the players listed above because my code had awarded two players who were just activated for the upcoming week and were not actually on the active roster for the week they would have won:  Jackie Bradley Jr. and Jose Fernandez.  Interestingly, both would have been strong contenders for the monthly awards too had they actually spent the entire month on active rosters.  But here are the two players who did win the awards for May 2016:

Batter of the Month:

Mike Trout, Mavericks
.340 AVG, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 26 R, 5 SB, 2.86 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
0.91 ERA, 0.523 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 65 K, 5.69 PAR

After a somewhat pedestrian first month, by his standards, Mike Trout was back to his usual form in May.  He did not lead the league in any single category, but was near the top in all five.  Perhaps most encouraging were the five stolen bases, which is the same number he stole in the final five months of 2015.  There were a whole bunch of players within striking distance of this honor, with Ben Zobrist and Mookie Betts being the two closest.  Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw lapped the field on the pitching side.  He is the first player (pitcher or batter) to surpass a 5.0 PAR in a month since I started tracking these monthly numbers last year.  All of his May numbers are insane, but especially the 65/2 K/BB ratio.  He had three more wins than walks in May!  Jose Fernandez actually had the second highest PAR for the month, but as I mentioned above, he was not on the active roster for all of that time, so runner-up honors go to Madison Bumgarner who would have had a strong case for this award with his May numbers in almost any other month.

 

Posted in Awards, Mavericks | No Comments »

2016 Season Preview: Part III

Tuesday, April 5th, 2016


We’re now into the third day of games of the 2016 baseball season.  What better time to overreact to small sample sizes?  I’ll try not to do that here.  Hopefully, I’ll be able to finish up the final article tomorrow evening.  In part three of our season preview, we’ll look at three teams that are projected to be above average this season, but just barely.  The numbers show these teams finishing well behind the top two.  But this is where the eventual champion Jackalope were slotted a year ago.  So it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see one or more of these teams in the running for the title down the stretch.  All of these teams have championship aspirations after slightly disappointing 2015 seasons.  One of them is a recent champion while the other two have come very close in recent years and are looking to take the next step this season.  Here are the teams projected to finish in fifth, fourth and third places.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 5th (7th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (8th)
  • Wins – 4th (2nd-T)
  • Saves – 2nd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
  • Total Points – 5th (6th)

Summary:

You know how everyone talks about the San Francisco Giants and #EvenYearMagic?  Well, they aren’t the only team who has won championships in each of the past three even year seasons (2010, 2012, 2014).  Those also happen to be years in which the Naturals have won DTBL titles.  Last year’s season preview correctly predicted that the Naturals would not come close to defending their title.  But it was a surprisingly mediocre offense that cost them, rather than the pitching staff which appeared to be their weakness.  This year’s projections show more of the same.  They still have one of the most imposing offensive lineups in the league.  Troy Tulowtizki is gone, but Miguel Cabrera, Nolan Arenado, Andrew McCutchen and Joey Votto remain.  Even though we just saw it last year, I have a hard time believing this is a below average offensive team.  The pitching staff looks very strong with Noah Syndergaard joining David Price and Carlos Carrasco at the top of the rotation.  And the bullpen will feature four closers to start the year.  Despite the modest prognostication, another even year championship certainly seems possible for the Naturals.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 8th-T (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (4th)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (1st)
  • Wins – 5th (6th)
  • Saves – 8th (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th (6th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (1st)
  • Total Points – 4th (2nd)

Summary:

The past three years, the Mavericks have been projected to finish either first or second.  That’s basically how things have turned out too.  The Mavs have finished no worse than third the past four years.  But this season marks the tenth anniversary of their last title.  The perennial contender will likely resume that role again this season, although these projections are not quite as optimistic.  They still have the league’s best pitching staff, by far, even though they are not projected to lead the league in pitching points.  That’s only because of wins and saves, the former which is nearly impossible to predict.  They are a solid #1 in the other three pitching categories, giving them plenty of room for error.  Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg continue to be an enviable top three who all would be clear aces on most other teams.  The bullpen is borderline unfair with four of the best relievers in baseball, although Aroldis Chapman will miss time due to a suspension.  They won’t rack up saves since three of them play for the same team, but Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Kenley Jansen will basically assure the Mavericks of winning the strike out category.  The questions are all on offense.  These projections are not kind, but that is largely because they are depending on a ton of young players without proven track records along with several veterans who have had trouble staying healthy in recent years.  They are a pretty good bet to exceed the counting category projections assuming these guys stay on the field.  It won’t be the least bit surprising if the Mavericks are one of the best teams in the league again this year.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 8th-T (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (7th)
  • Wins – 8th (9th)
  • Saves – 10th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (8th-T)
  • Total Points – 3rd (5th)

Summary:

The Demigods were very close to winning their first championship in 2014 and entered last year with lofty expectations.  Unfortunately for them, their pitching staff was unable to maintain its dominance, causing them to finish a disappointing fifth.  This year, things could be setting up perfectly for them to make another run.  They should finally get a full year out of Jose Fernandez, who along with Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels, certainly have the potential to be the best non-Mavericks rotation.  Remember, just two years ago, they led the league in pitching points.  This group could be just as strong.  However, the bullpen is not great.  Trevor Rosenthal is the only certain closer on the team.  So punting saves may be necessary.  With the bats, they look pretty strong as well.  First round pick Francisco Lindor joins a hitting roster that is very steady from 1 through 14.  Really, their offensive strength is their lack of weak spots.  Buster Posey, Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez are largely underrated superstars.  Perhaps expectations aren’t quite as high this year for the Demigods, but this is a very strong team.  They are by far the most balanced of any of the teams covered so far.  There is a bit of a gap between them and the top two in these projections, but they are also a safe third ahead of the rest of the pack.

Posted in Demigods, Mavericks, Naturals | No Comments »

Elite Rookie Class Arrives

Thursday, March 24th, 2016


One of the prevailing storylines of the 2015 baseball season was the infusion of highly touted prospects making their MLB debuts and immediately contributing for their big league clubs.  So it was clear last summer that the 2016 DTBL draft class would be one of the most highly regarded groups we’ve ever seen.  Not surprisingly, those superstars-in-the-making dominated the early part of the 24th Annual DTBL Draft.

Of the first 14 players selected in the draft, 11 made their MLB debuts during the 2015 season.  One other was classified as a rookie and another has just one full season under his belt.  The one “veteran” of that group is Carlos Martinez, who happens to be just 24 years old .  Martinez was the only first round selection who did not make his MLB debut last season.

The draft kicked off with a pair of players who arrived in the big leagues with so much hype that it seemed impossible for them to immediately live up to it.  But that they did, on their way to AL and NL Rookie of the Year honors.  With the first pick, the Kings selected shortstop Carlos Correa, making him the third player to have been selected with the first pick of both the DTBL and MLB Drafts (joining Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper).  Correa demonstrated all of his five tools for the Astros last season.  He hit .279 with 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases in four months of action.  He will be asked to anchor a position which suddenly became a weakness for the Kings after a disappointing season from Ian Desmond and off the field troubles for Jose Reyes.  The second pick was no slouch either.  The Cougars selected third baseman Kris Bryant who led all MLB rookies with 26 home runs and 99 runs batted in.  He will give an immediate boost to a Cougars offense which was dead last in the league in batting points last year.

Correa and Bryant were the presumptive top two picks all along.  But they were hardly the only youngsters with huge upside in this draft.  The Gators took shortstop Corey Seager with the third pick.  Seager, the younger brother of Moonshiners third baseman Kyle, hit a robust .337 with four homers in just 27 games after a September call-up.  He figures to be another key piece to a Gators offense which made great strides a year ago.  The Moonshiners kept the run of potential superstar sluggers going by selecting third baseman Miguel Sano with pick four.  Sano probably has the most raw power of any player in the draft not named Bryant.  He hit 18 home runs in just 279 big league at bats.  His eventual position is still TBD, but his power will play anywhere on the field.

For the second straight year, no pitchers were selected in the top four picks.  Last year, the Jackalope grabbed the first pitcher, Jake Arrieta, in the sixth slot.  This year, the Naturals hope for a similar payout from the first picher off the board.  They selected Noah Syndergaard at number five.  Syndergaard was a key figure in the Mets pennant winning season.  He struck out 166 in 150 innings along with nine wins, a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  This is the second straight year the Naturals have gone with a pitcher in the first round (Carlos Carrasco).  The Choppers followed by selecting outfielder Kyle Schwarber, another slugger with tons of raw power.  Schwarber slugged 16 homers in just 232 at bats.  If he is able to qualify as a catcher down the road, this could be an absolute steal for the Choppers.  He will begin his DTBL career in the outfield though.

With the eighth pick, the Darkhorses took the only non-rookie of the round.  Pitcher Carlos Martinez still has immense upside though at the tender age of 24.  The former Maverick struck out over a batter per inning and won ten games in his first full season as a member of the starting rotation.  The Darkhorses were really just a pitcher or two away from being a contender last season, so Martinez should play a big role if they are to close that gap.  Next, the Mavericks picked the third Cubs rookie of the first round, second baseman Addison Russell.  Russell will move over to shortstop a year from now, but provides huge upside at either middle infield position.  Finally, the Jackalope finished the first round by selecting third baseman Maikel Franco.  I’m going to go on the record and call Franco the steal of the first round.  It is not normal for a defending champion to have the opportunity to draft a player of Franco’s caliber with the tenth pick.  He is having a huge spring, which could mean that the 14 home runs and 50 RBI he put up in his partial season in 2015 was just the start of him tapping into his potential.  I was badly hoping Franco would slip to me with the next pick.

We have not seen the same flurry of in-draft trades as last year, but the Mavericks did complete a pair of deals early on.  First, they were finally able to unload Cody Allen after putting him on the block last summer.  The Cougars acquired Allen in exchange for their second round pick (12th overall).  It is a very interesting trade in that a second round pick seems like quite a haul for a guy who didn’t even have a certain roster spot on his old team.  But if you look at just how weak relief pitching was in this draft class, it absolutely makes sense for the Cougars.  If Allen had been part of this draft, he almost certainly would have been the first reliever selected.  And since there was such a large gap between him and the best available closer, a second round pick sounds about right.  But for the Mavericks, this is obviously a win.  They had little use for Allen with their bullpen full of some of the best relievers in baseball (mostly Yankees).  They used the acquired pick to add another young phenom, outfielder Byron Buxton.

The second trade involved some huge names who have recently changed MLB teams as well.  The Mavericks shipped outfielder Jayson Heyward to the Naturals for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  At times, Tulo has been one of the most valuable players in baseball.  But his stock has fallen a bit recently due to a long string of injuries and his depature from Colorado.  Toronto is a pretty good place to hit too though, and he is part of the best lineup in baseball.  So he still has huge upside.  As for Heyward, the Cubs made him the biggest offensive free agent acquisition of the winter.  The Naturals expect him to play a key role in their revamped offense.  Both Heyward and Tulowitzki had spent their entire DTBL careers with their previous team.  Heyward was a first round selection of the Mavericks in 2011.  Tulowitzki spent eight great years with the Naturals after they selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft.

We have reached the two week mark of the draft and have completed eight rounds.  That is a slower pace than recent years, but recent improvement seems to have us on track to complete the draft with plenty of time to spare.  Good luck with the remainder of the draft.  Just 10 days until Opening Day!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

2015 PAR Update

Monday, January 25th, 2016


With the great East Coast snowstorm of 2016 having rolled through this past weekend, I found myself with some unexpected free time.  I took some of that time to complete a task that I should have done months ago.  I finally updated the 2015 PAR numbers to be derived from stats including those accumulated during the 2015 season.  As a quick reminder, PAR is built upon five years worth of league-wide data.  During the season, that data comes from the five previously completed seasons.  However, when a season ends, I adjust the numbers to use the recently completed season in place of the numbers from five years prior.  So up until now, the ’15 PAR totals were based on data from 2010-2014.  I have now replaced 2010 with 2015 stats.  Normally, this post-season adjustment has minimal impact on the numbers and certainly wouldn’t be worth its own blog post.  However, there were some interesting outcomes this time around, so I’m going to take this opportunity to chronicle them.

First, this update caused a slight uptick in cumulative offensive PAR and a similar downswing for pitchers.  Across the league, these adjustments caused the league Batting PAR to increase to 201, up approximately 12 points, while pitchers dropped 11 points to 264.  In a perfect world, both totals would be right around 225, which is the number of points above last place that can be gained in all of the batting and pitching categories.  But as we’ve seen in almost all of the PAR numbers I’ve calculated to date, batters have fallen short of this total while pitchers have far exceeded it.  This is because there has been a consistent decline in offensive numbers over the time period I have examined, with pitchers going the opposite direction.  But we’re finally getting closer to the ideal league totals since the five year window is now almost exclusively seasons in which pitchers dominated.  The reason for the adjusted increase in offense and decline in pitching is because 2015 replaced a 2010 season that was far better for pitchers, meaning the hurdle for earning points above replacement for hitters has gone down while pitchers have a higher obstacle to exceed.

On an individual player basis, most hitters saw their PAR increase slightly while pitchers dropped a bit.  This was pretty consistent across the board, but a few noticeable changes are worth mentioning.  First, the MVP race became extremely interesting in part because Josh Donaldson and Paul Goldschmidt had nearly identical PAR totals for the Jackalope.  Prior to the update, both players had matching 8.45 PAR, with an ever so slight edge to Goldschmidt when expanding it to the third decimal place.  But now, Donaldson has passed Goldschmidt as the Batting PAR champion, 9.35 to 9.29.  The reason why Donaldson received more of a boost is because stolen bases became a little less valuable in the revised formula, which dinged Goldschmidt a bit.  Of course, league members had already deemed Donaldson more valuable anyway, having named him the league’s MVP this season.  There were a few place swaps down the Batting PAR leaderboard as well, but the top two switch was the most noteworthy.

On the pitching side, the changes were more consistent.  All of the top pitchers saw their numbers go down by just about the same amount, so there were no changes to the Pitching PAR top 10.  But there was an interesting change when looking at the historical numbers.  Prior to this update, Jake Arrieta’s 16.32 PAR was the highest single season mark in recorded PAR history (2010 to present), just barely edging Justin Verlander’s 16.31 in 2011.  However, Arrieta’s official PAR for 2015 has now dropped to 15.64, which drops him behind Verlander and 2014 Clayton Kershaw.  It is difficult to compare players from different seasons, but PAR is one tool to do so.  Arrieta had one of the best pitching seasons in league history, no matter how you look at it though.  Kershaw and Zack Greinke remain solidly in the top 10 single season Pitching PAR (since ’10) with their ’15 seasons as well.

Now I will start working on calculating PAR numbers for more past seasons.  2009 will be up next, with a goal of completing every year since 2005 before the start of the upcoming season.  Stay tuned for that.

Posted in Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »

Best of the Rest

Saturday, October 24th, 2015


With the Jackalope running away with the title, that left nine other teams who weren’t particularly close to earning the big prize. In fact, only one other team finished the year closer to first place than last place, in terms of points. The Mavericks finished in second place, 19 points behind the Jackalope. Meanwhile, the Darkhorses came in third, but were considerably closer to the last place Kings than the Jackalope. The other seven teams weren’t even in the same area code. We’ll start the season recap of the non-championship teams by focusing on the Mavericks and Darkhorses, the only other teams who weren’t in danger of finishing dead last in the closing days of the season.

The Mavericks entered the season as the favorites, mostly on the strength of their insanely talented pitching staff. Not surprisingly, they did indeed lead the league in pitching points. They set a league record for team strikeouts, becoming the first staff to exceed 1,400 whiffs (1,415). They also led the league in WHIP (1.08) and had a sub-3.00 ERA (2.98), only the 8th team in league history to do that. So they basically met all pitching expectations. Unfortunately for them, the Jackalope were almost as good, finishing with just three fewer pitching points. That separation wasn’t nearly enough to cover for a Mavericks offense which wound up being a disappointment.

Despite starting the season a little slow, by his standards, Clayton Kershaw wound up having another amazing season.  He became the first DTBL pitcher to record 300+ strikeouts since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling way back in 2002.  He was actually the only member of the Mavericks’ staff to finish in the top 10 in K’s, which is pretty hard to believe for a record breaking team.  Kershaw didn’t do it all by himself though.  Matt Harvey’s return from Tommy John surgery was a huge success.  Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Martinez were very good too, when healthy.  But the main reason for the Mavericks’ lofty strikeout total was their bullpen.  Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller all recorded 95+ K’s, which is quite an achievement for one reliever on a team, much less three.

The Mavericks did not get the offensive output they needed to be a true contender this year.  Mike Trout was his usual MVP caliber self.  Manny Machado and Lorenzo Cain had a huge breakout years.  But that is pretty much the extent of Mavericks hitters who exceeded expectations.  Five of their regular players recorded negative PARs.  They just weren’t deep enough offensively to seriously threaten the Jackalope.  Second place is still a very solid finish though.  This is the third time the Mavericks have been the runners-up in the past four seasons.  And their roster is still extremely young and talented, so it seems they will continue to compete for the championship in upcoming years.

If there is one team besides the Jackalope who should be very happy with their 2015 season, it would be the Darkhorses.  After finishing in the bottom half of the league for four straight years, they vaulted all the way to a third place finish this year.  No, they weren’t particularly close to winning the league.  But they clearly had a better season than all of the teams below them and appear to be headed in the right direction.  In terms of the 2015 results, they were sort of the reverse of the Mavericks.  They had one of the league’s best offenses but didn’t have enough pitching to contend.

The Darkhorses accumulated 40 batting points, trailing only the Jackalope and nine points clear of all other teams.  They led the league in batting average and finished in the top three in home runs, RBI and runs.  Bryce Harper emerged as quite possibly the best player in the league, finishing in top three in average, home runs and runs.  Edwin Encarnacion, Todd Frazier and Xander Bogaerts were solid contributors too.  George Spring justified the Darkhorses’ selection of him with the third overall pick having a very good DTBL rookie year despite missing significant time due to injury.

The Darhorses’ second round pick was pretty good too.  Jacob deGrom immediately became the staff ace and joined the ranks of the top pitchers in the league.  But besides him, they didn’t get truly great numbers out of any other pitchers.  Lance Lynn and James Shields had decent years.  Julio Teheran was a disappointment and Michael Pineda couldn’t stay healthy.  The bullpen was a two man show with Brad Boxberger and Luke Gregerson racking up saves, but with little to no support from the rest of the pen.  Again, a very good year for the Darkhorses, but they were a couple pitchers away from being a serious title contender.

Despite falling well short of the top, there were plenty of positives for the Mavericks and Darkhorses.  The other seven teams were kind of a mess, so I’ll review all of them at the same time in my final season recap article next week.

Posted in Darkhorses, Mavericks | No Comments »

Players of the Month: September

Friday, October 2nd, 2015


We have reached the final weekend of the 2015 DTBL season! No, this hasn’t been the most thrilling pennant race we’ve ever witnessed. Yes, the Jackalope are going to cruise to their second league title in a matter of days. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything worth watching in the season’s final weekend. For one thing, there is a heck of a race brewing on the other end of the standings. The Kings have found themselves in last place for most of the past few weeks, but their “lead” to get the first pick in next year’s draft is hardly safe. The Gators and Cougars are just a point ahead and seven of the league’s ten teams are within seven points of the bottom of the standings! Many years, teams would probably rather finish dead last than just a few spots higher. But with next year’s draft shaping up to possibly be the most loaded draft this league has ever seen, all ten teams should have an opportunity at picking up blue-chip young stars in the first round. But enough talk about the race to the bottom…

With just four days of October games on the schedule, it probably would have made sense to save my last monthly awards article until after the season. But I figure I might as well get this out of the way now so I can focus on showering the Jackalope with praise next week. So here are the September Batter and Pitcher of the Month, with only stats in the month of September counting towards the award rankings.

Batters of the Week:

Week 22 (8/31 – 9/6) – Nolan Arenado, Naturals
Week 23 (9/7 – 9/13) – Yoenis Cespedes, Gators
Week 24 (9/14 – 9/20) – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
Week 25 (9/21 – 9/27) – Starling Marte, Gators

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 22 (8/31 – 9/6) – Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners
Week 23 (9/7 – 9/13) – Masahiro Tanaka, Choppers
Week 24 (9/14 – 9/20) – Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks
Week 25 (9/21 – 9/27) – Jake Arrieta, Jackalope

A little more variety in terms of players and teams in the weekly awards for September. Interesting that Harper and Strasburg were the winners in the same week while their Nationals season was flushed down the drain. The monthly award winners are a second time honoree and a guy who has just missed the past few months. Here are the players of the month for September:

Batter of the Month:

Nolan Arenado, Naturals
.339 AVG, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 19 R, 1 SB, 2.53 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
1.84 ERA, 0.818 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 58 K, 4.29 PAR

Also the league’s best player in June, Arenado is the first/only player to win two monthly awards this year. His league leading 11 homers and 32 RBI in September have moved him into the MVP discussion. He leads the league in RBI and is in the top five in home runs and PAR. He won the award by a comfortable margin, but Shin-Soo Choo and Bryce Harper were his closest competition.

After a bit of a slow start, by his standards, Kershaw is finishing the year in his usual form: as one of the best pitchers on the planet. His five wins and 58 strikeouts led the way in September. He easily leads the league in strikeouts for the season, and needs just six strikeouts on Sunday to become the first to reach 300 in a season since Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson in 2002. Despite those absurd numbers, he just barely won this award over last month’s winner, Jake Arrieta. It will be a fascinating Cy Young race between those two and Kerhaw’s Dodger teammate Zack Greinke… not to mention several others having incredible years.

Enjoy the final weekend and early congrats to Jay!

Posted in Awards, Mavericks, Naturals | No Comments »

Players of the Month: July

Sunday, August 2nd, 2015


As the temperature started to heat up this summer, so did the DTBL Championship race.  The Jackalope finished July in the same spot as all of the previous months:  first place.  But what was once a 20+ lead has been trimmed to single digits entering the season’s final two months.  This has had nothing to do with the Jackalope falling back to the pack.  They have steadily held around 85 standings points.  But what has changed is the total of their closest competition, the Mavericks.  The Mavs are closing in on the 80 point mark as well, thanks to their pitching staff starting to materialize the way most expected before the season.  Also, the offense has received a huge lift from a player that I will be touching on in just a bit.  Before we get to the players of the month, here are the guys who earned weekly honors in July:

Batters of the Week:

Week 13 (6/29 – 7/5) – J.D. Martinez, Demigods
Week 14 (7/6 – 7/12) – Mike Trout, Mavericks
Week 15 (7/17 – 7/19) – Adrian Gonzalez, Darkhorses
Week 16 (7/20 – 7/26) – Carlos Gonzalez, Kings

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 13 (6/29 – 7/5) – Jordan Zimmermann, Naturals
Week 14 (7/6 – 7/12) – Chris Sale, Choppers
Week 15 (7/17 – 7/19) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
Week 16 (7/20 – 7/26) – Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses

The Batter of the Month race came down to two of the guys listed above while the pitching award was a four horse race won by a guy who has been nearly unhittable for two straight months.  Here are the award winners for July 2015:

Batter of the Month:

Mike Trout, Mavericks
.367 AVG, 12 HR, 24 RBI, 20 R, 1 SB, 2.32 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Zack Greinke, Moonshiners
0.95 ERA, 0.579 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 34 K, 3.69 PAR

Trout and Carlos Gonzalez had nearly identical numbers in the month of July.  It wound up being the one home run and stolen base advantage that tilted this award to the Mavericks outfielder.  As mentioned above, Trout has been largely responsible for the Mavericks making a significant dent into the Jackalope lead.

There were four pitchers who led the way in July, coming from just two MLB teams.  Greinke took the top spot, barely edging out his Dodgers teammate Clayton Kershaw.  And not far behind those two were a pair of Cubs:  Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.  But in the end, Greinke’s incredible 43 inning scoreless streak, dating back to mid-June, sealed this honor.  Greinke allowed just four runs in the month of July and has allowed more than three runs in a start just once this entire season.  Plagued by poor run support early in the year, he was able to add four victories in the month too.

Posted in Awards, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »

DTBL All Star Awards Outlook

Monday, July 27th, 2015


Welcome to a slightly delayed version of the All Star awards outlook.  These numbers are all culled from stats as of the All Star break, as the season’s midpoint is always a good time to look back on how the season has gone and look forward to exciting pennant races.  Well, perhaps not in DTBL itself, but one never knows!

Without further ado, here are your category leaders at the break.

»Batting Average: Miguel Cabrera, Naturals, .350
»Home Runs: Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope: 27
»RBI: Nolan Arenado, Naturals and Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope: 70
»Runs: Mike Trout, Mavericks: 68
»Stolen Bases: Billy Hamilton, Naturals: 44
»ERA: Zack Greinke, Moonshiners: 1.39
»WHIP: Max Scherzer, Kings: .780
»Wins: Gerrit Cole, Jackalope: 13
»Saves: Mark Melancon, Jackalope: 29
»Strikeouts: Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks: 160

On to the awards!

Rookie of the Year:

Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners – 0.997 WHIP, 2.34 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 107 K, 6.8 PAR
Jake Arrieta, Jackalope – 0.986 WHIP, 2.66 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 123 K, 6.7 PAR
Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses – 0.924 WHIP, 2.14 ERA, 9 W, 0 SV, 112 K, 6.6 PAR

As with the Memorial Day outlook, the Rookie of the Year category is dominated by pitchers.  All three of Keuchel, Arrieta, and deGrom sat in the top 10 of pitching related PAR at the break.  And, really, a case could be made for any of these pitchers to be the front runner for the award.  deGrom holds a slight edge in WHIP and ERA; Arrieta and Keuchel are tied in wins;  Arrieta holds the edge in strikeouts; and PAR gives Keuchel the slight edge.  I don’t think anyone would be truly surprised if these three are at the top of the ballot come the postseason.

Honorable mention goes to a trio of outfielders, Charlie Blackmon of the Cougars (who cracked the top 10 of hitter PAR at the break), Mookie Betts of the Kings, and George Springer of the Darkhorses.

Cy Young:

Max Scherzer, Kings – 0.780 WHIP, 2.11 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 150 K, 9.6 PAR
Zack Greinke, Moonshiners – 0.843 WHIP, 1.39 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 106 K, 7.6 PAR

Once again, Max Scherzer reigns supreme at the top of the Cy Young list.  A ridiculous WHIP and strikeout total lead to a PAR that’s two full points above Zack Greinke.  However, Greinke’s pre All Star break performance was nothing short of extraordinary in its own right, and makes him a worthy companion for Scherzer.  Greinke hurled 35 and 2/3 scoreless innings going into the break, dropping his ERA to a ridiculous 1.39.  With all the great pitchers in baseball this year, it remains to be seen if Scherzer and Greinke can stay on top of this list, or if any of the pitchers listed below can join the truly elite.

Honorable mention goes to Gerrit Cole of the Jackalope, Sonny Gray of the Jackalope, Chris Archer of the Cougars, and the trio of ROY candidates discussed above.

Most Valuable Player:

Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope – .340 BA, 60 R, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 16 SB, 6.4 PAR
Mike Trout, Mavericks – .312 BA, 68 R, 26 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, 5.4 PAR

Given Bryce Harper’s otherworldly season, it’s a bit strange not seeing him at the top of the MVP race.  However, in fantasy baseball, stolen bases still matter, and while Harper mashes the cover off the ball, the speed simply isn’t there.  In contract, the speed is there for the two leaders at the midway point, Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Trout.  Surprisingly, Trout features the bigger power numbers, coming in at 26 homers to Goldschmidt’s 21.  Unsurprisingly, Trout also leads the league in runs with 68  However, Goldschmidt dominates most of the other categories, with a sparkling .340 batting average, a league leading 70 RBI, and a remarkable 16 stolen bases (to Trout’s 9).  In fact, the 16 steals for Goldschmidt are only two off his career DTBL high.  Trout is an amazing player, and it will take a lot for Goldschmidt to hold him off, but as of now, this MVP nod is well deserved, for both Goldschmidt and the Jackalope as a team.

Honorable mention goes to Bryce Harper of the Darkhorses, Giancarlo Stanton of the Jackalope, and the surprising Todd Frazier of the Darkhorses.

 

Posted in Awards, Cougars, Darkhorses, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Memorial Day Awards Outlook

Monday, May 25th, 2015


Welcome to a slightly amended version of the 2015 DTBL Awards Outlook.  So as to differentiate the numbers and players I’m examining with what Kevin is doing, there will be three Awards Outlook articles this season.  This is the first; the second will follow at the All Star break, with the third at Labor Day.  These seem like reasonable benchmarks for the baseball season, landing on big holidays and milestones rather than doing it monthly.  Plus, this will allow Kevin to focus more on monthly aspects with his postings.

That being said, these articles will focus on three things.  First, in a new addition, I’ll be listing the individual category leaders in all the hitting and pitching categories.  In this way, we can better track who’s been on point for an entire season, or if they’re more of a flash in the pan.  Second, I’ll be visiting the awards categories in the same fashion as last year, but instead of a top 5 ballot style listing, this year will focus only on the top two for each category.  Honorable mentions will go to players who are on the cusp, but can only knock on the door of being truly elite.  PAR and ESPN’s player rater will be relied upon as main benchmarks to set the awards leaders.

Here are the DTBL category leaders through Memorial Day, 2015.

  • Batting Average: Dee Gordon, Gators – .376
  • Home Runs: Nelson Cruz, Gators – 17
  • Runs Batted In: Bryce Harper, Darkhorses – 41
  • Runs Scored: Bryce Harper, Darkhorses – 39
  • Stolen Bases: Dee Gordon, Gators – 17
  • Earned Run Average: Zack Greinke, Moonshiners – 1.48
  • WHIP Ratio: Zack Greinke, Moonshiners – .869
  • Wins: Felix Hernandez, Moonshiners – 7
  • Saves: Glen Perkins, Naturals – 16
  • Strikeouts: Corey Klueber, Demigods – 83

Rookie of the Year:

  • Dallas Keuchel, Starting Pitcher, Moonshiners – .947 WHIP, 1.78 ERA, 5 W, 0 Sv, 39 Ks, 3.2 PAR
  • Jacob DeGrom, Starting Pitcher, Darkhorses – 1.114 WHIP, 2.75 ERA, 5 W, 0 Sv, 54Ks, 2.7 PAR

Unlike last year, this year’s rookie crop doesn’t seem to be quite as strong overall.  Rookie pitchers definitely have an edge in this category over hitters, however, as exemplified by Dallas Keuchel and Jacob DeGrom.  DeGrom was a high draft pick, taken by the Darkhorses in the second round.  His stellar numbers were to be expected, and he is certainly not disappointing.  He adds another fine young arm to Darkhorses growing stable of them.  Keuchel, on the other hand, went undrafted.  He was the subject of a fierce free agent bidding battle after the first week of the season, and he has not disappointed the Moonshiners since, spinning a 9th overall pitching PAR after missing two starts during his time as a free agent.  He has settled in nicely as a very worthy third starter on the Moonshiners staff.

Apologies go to Jake Arrieta of the Jackalope, Dellin Betances of the Mavericks, Marcus Semien of the Gators, and Brad Boxberger of the Darkhorses.

Cy Young:

  • Max Scherzer, Starting Pitcher, Kings – .881 WHIP, 1.67 ERA, 5 W, 0 Sv, 72 Ks, 4.7 PAR
  • Felix Hernandez, Starting Pitcher, Moonshiners – .941 WHIP, 2.19 ERA, 7 W, 0 Sv, 63Ks, 4.6 PAR

Cy Young is an extremely tight category at the top.  There’s separation between these two pitchers and the rest of the field, but very little separates Max Scherzer and Felix Hernandez.  King Felix has been everything the Moonshiners could ask for after a draft day trade, combining his usually stellar ratios with wins, unlike in seasons past.  He looks to maintain his place as the ace of a revamped Moonshiners staff for years to come.  Meanwhile Scherzer has rebounded from a “slow” start to the season, where a lack of run support led to some hard luck losses.  However, a move to the National League has worked wonders for his overall numbers, as the usual filthy strikeout numbers are now combined with ridiculous ratios.  This race will be one to watch for the entire season.

Apologies go to Zack Greinke of the Moonshiners, Sonny Gray of the Jackalope, and Shelby Miller of the Kings.

Most Valuable Player

  • Bryce Harper, Outfielder, Darkhorses – .333 Avg, 39 R, 16 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, 3.7 PAR
  • Paul Goldschmidt, First Baseman, Jackalope – .333 Avg, 34 R, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 8 SB, 3.6 PAR

MVP may be an even tighter category between first and second place than even Cy Young.  Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt do it all.  Goldschmidt provides a great blend of power (12 homers), speed (8 steals) and high average.  His continued journey into baseball’s elite is certainly a reason why the Jackalope felt comfortable parting with long time stalwart Albert Pujols during the draft.  Harper is finally tapping into his vast talent, playing at a level that finally meets the hype and Sports Illustrated covers.  He leads DTBL in runs and RBI, is one short in the home run category, and is also providing elite average.  Both players provide numbers that can carry any offense, have the Jackalope and Darkhorses sitting at the top of the DTBL standings, and can keep them there throughout the season.  Definitely the elite production that teams are looking for out of their superstars.

Apologies go to Nelson Cruz of the Gators, Justin Upton of the Naturals, and Mike Trout of the Mavericks.

Posted in Awards, Darkhorses, Demigods, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

2015 Season Preview: Part IV

Wednesday, April 8th, 2015


Last year, the 2014 season previews predicted two teams would stand out above the rest.  That’s exactly what happened, but not the two that had been projected to do so (Kings and Mavericks).  It was the Naturals and Demigods who blew away the rest of the league en route to record setting finishes, with the Naturals squeaking out the title by 2 1/2 points.  This year figures to be much different with a lot more teams projected to be in the championship mix.  In part, that is because no one team looks overwhelmingly strong on paper.  Even the two teams who will be covered in this final part of the 2015 season preview have a few noticeable weaknesses.  But what makes these teams appear to be the top title contenders is that even those weaknesses still put them above average in both hitting and pitching, the only two teams that can say that.  These were two of the top three finishers a year ago, so it is not surprising to see them among the favorites again in 2015.  Here are the projected top two title contenders.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 5th (4th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th-T (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (2nd)
  • Wins – 3rd (1st)
  • Saves – 6th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (1st)
  • Total Points – 2nd (2nd)

Summary:

The Demigods were a surprise title contender a year ago, just barely missing out on their first league championship.  But this year, they won’t catch anyone by surprise.  This is the most complete team in the league.  The only thing keeping them from being the overall favorite is that their strength from a year ago, their rotation, does not appear to be nearly as strong this year.  Losing Yu Darvish to a torn UCL in spring training was a terrible blow to what was the best pitching staff in the league a year ago.  Also, Jose Fernandez doesn’t figure to return to action until mid-season either.  That still leaves them with an impressive trio of Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels.  But they are going to need some great performances from other hurlers to keep up with the team below.  The bullpen is only average, but shouldn’t kill them.  The good news is the offense looks very strong again this year.  All of the pieces seem to fit and they do not have an obvious weakness among their everyday players.  Jose Altuve and Carlos Gomez were two of the best players in the league last year.  If Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria can bounce back from disappointing ’14 campaigns, they could challenge for the best offense in the league.  It is the overall strength of both the hitting and pitching that makes the Demigods one of the clear favorites this year.  They came oh so close to their first championship last year.  Perhaps this will be the year instead.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 1st (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (4th)
  • Wins – 5th (4th)
  • Saves – 1st (6th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (3rd)
  • Total Points – 1st (3rd)

Summary:

It is hard to know what to make of the Mavericks’ 2014 season.  On one hand, they were projected to finish near the top of the league after just barely missing out on a title in ’13 with a historically great pitching staff.  But on the other, it seemed they weren’t likely to duplicate that kind of season without their phenom pitcher Matt Harvey.  So their third place finish was pretty good, but it was the first time they weren’t in the title hunt until the final days of the season since 2011.  Now Harvey is back and they appear to once again have one of the strongest pitching staffs this league has ever seen.  Harvey, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg on the same team seems unfair.  These projections have them winning the league in four of the five pitching categories, and nobody else is close in any of the four.  In addition to the ridiculously loaded rotation, they have the scariest collection of bullpen arms in the league too.  They traded for Aroldis Chapman and drafted Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller to join Cody Allen and Kenley Jansen.  Those guys all strike out hitters at such high rates that their strikeout totals look like those of starting pitchers.  If they stay even semi healthy, it would be hard to envision any other team coming close to them in strikeouts.  ERA and WHIP are less predictable, but they are heavy favorites there too.  Now for the bad news.  Their offense doesn’t appear to be elite.  Mike Trout is though, and he is on their roster.  So if he can get some help from the supporting cast, they ought to be good enough in the hitting categories to compliment their insane pitching staff on their way to the top of the standings.  Hard to believe it has been nine years since their last title, but there have been a bunch of close calls since then.  This looks like it could be the year the Mavericks win their third league title.

Here are the full projected standings and team stat totals.  As I have hinted at throughout these previews, these projections show a very tight race from top to bottom.  Only the Demigods are projected for 30+ points in both batting and pitching, while every team but the Gators has 25+ points in one or the other.  So the Mavericks and Demigods appear to be a little bit better than the next six teams.  But it wouldn’t take much for almost any team to get into the mix.  As we saw last year, these projections are not to be trusted.  It should be a great season.

Posted in Demigods, Mavericks | No Comments »

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