We’re now into the third day of games of the 2016 baseball season. What better time to overreact to small sample sizes? I’ll try not to do that here. Hopefully, I’ll be able to finish up the final article tomorrow evening. In part three of our season preview, we’ll look at three teams that are projected to be above average this season, but just barely. The numbers show these teams finishing well behind the top two. But this is where the eventual champion Jackalope were slotted a year ago. So it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see one or more of these teams in the running for the title down the stretch. All of these teams have championship aspirations after slightly disappointing 2015 seasons. One of them is a recent champion while the other two have come very close in recent years and are looking to take the next step this season. Here are the teams projected to finish in fifth, fourth and third places.
Nick’s Naturals
Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)
- Batting Average – 4th (5th)
- Home Runs – 5th (7th-T)
- Runs Batted In – 9th (4th)
- Runs Scored – 8th (10th)
- Stolen Bases – 6th (8th)
- Earned Run Average – 7th (9th)
- WHIP Ratio – 5th (8th)
- Wins – 4th (2nd-T)
- Saves – 2nd (1st)
- Strike Outs – 5th (6th)
- Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
- Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
- Total Points – 5th (6th)
Summary:
You know how everyone talks about the San Francisco Giants and #EvenYearMagic? Well, they aren’t the only team who has won championships in each of the past three even year seasons (2010, 2012, 2014). Those also happen to be years in which the Naturals have won DTBL titles. Last year’s season preview correctly predicted that the Naturals would not come close to defending their title. But it was a surprisingly mediocre offense that cost them, rather than the pitching staff which appeared to be their weakness. This year’s projections show more of the same. They still have one of the most imposing offensive lineups in the league. Troy Tulowtizki is gone, but Miguel Cabrera, Nolan Arenado, Andrew McCutchen and Joey Votto remain. Even though we just saw it last year, I have a hard time believing this is a below average offensive team. The pitching staff looks very strong with Noah Syndergaard joining David Price and Carlos Carrasco at the top of the rotation. And the bullpen will feature four closers to start the year. Despite the modest prognostication, another even year championship certainly seems possible for the Naturals.
Marc’s Mavericks
Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)
- Batting Average – 8th (9th)
- Home Runs – 8th-T (1st)
- Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
- Runs Scored – 10th (8th)
- Stolen Bases – 1st (4th)
- Earned Run Average – 1st (2nd)
- WHIP Ratio – 1st (1st)
- Wins – 5th (6th)
- Saves – 8th (2nd)
- Strike Outs – 1st (1st)
- Total Batting Points – 9th (6th-T)
- Total Pitching Points – 2nd (1st)
- Total Points – 4th (2nd)
Summary:
The past three years, the Mavericks have been projected to finish either first or second. That’s basically how things have turned out too. The Mavs have finished no worse than third the past four years. But this season marks the tenth anniversary of their last title. The perennial contender will likely resume that role again this season, although these projections are not quite as optimistic. They still have the league’s best pitching staff, by far, even though they are not projected to lead the league in pitching points. That’s only because of wins and saves, the former which is nearly impossible to predict. They are a solid #1 in the other three pitching categories, giving them plenty of room for error. Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg continue to be an enviable top three who all would be clear aces on most other teams. The bullpen is borderline unfair with four of the best relievers in baseball, although Aroldis Chapman will miss time due to a suspension. They won’t rack up saves since three of them play for the same team, but Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Kenley Jansen will basically assure the Mavericks of winning the strike out category. The questions are all on offense. These projections are not kind, but that is largely because they are depending on a ton of young players without proven track records along with several veterans who have had trouble staying healthy in recent years. They are a pretty good bet to exceed the counting category projections assuming these guys stay on the field. It won’t be the least bit surprising if the Mavericks are one of the best teams in the league again this year.
Dom’s Demigods
Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)
- Batting Average – 1st (3rd)
- Home Runs – 8th-T (5th)
- Runs Batted In – 2nd (3rd)
- Runs Scored – 2nd (7th)
- Stolen Bases – 3rd (6th)
- Earned Run Average – 4th (7th)
- WHIP Ratio – 4th (7th)
- Wins – 8th (9th)
- Saves – 10th (5th)
- Strike Outs – 4th (8th)
- Total Batting Points – 3rd (3rd)
- Total Pitching Points – 6th (8th-T)
- Total Points – 3rd (5th)
Summary:
The Demigods were very close to winning their first championship in 2014 and entered last year with lofty expectations. Unfortunately for them, their pitching staff was unable to maintain its dominance, causing them to finish a disappointing fifth. This year, things could be setting up perfectly for them to make another run. They should finally get a full year out of Jose Fernandez, who along with Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels, certainly have the potential to be the best non-Mavericks rotation. Remember, just two years ago, they led the league in pitching points. This group could be just as strong. However, the bullpen is not great. Trevor Rosenthal is the only certain closer on the team. So punting saves may be necessary. With the bats, they look pretty strong as well. First round pick Francisco Lindor joins a hitting roster that is very steady from 1 through 14. Really, their offensive strength is their lack of weak spots. Buster Posey, Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez are largely underrated superstars. Perhaps expectations aren’t quite as high this year for the Demigods, but this is a very strong team. They are by far the most balanced of any of the teams covered so far. There is a bit of a gap between them and the top two in these projections, but they are also a safe third ahead of the rest of the pack.