DTBL News

Category: Jackalope

  • Moose, Mo and More

    Embed from Getty Images A few times in recent years, I have taken the opportunity to write about the DTBL careers of a set of players recently inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.  Well, I think I might as well go ahead and make it an annual tradition for my July recap article.  Our league has reached a level of longevity such that virtually every player inducted into the Hall had a significant impact on this league as well.

    On July 21, six players were honored in Cooperstown, New York.  All six are DTBL alums and at least three would be sure fire Hall-of-Famers in this league as well, if such a thing existed.  The six honorees were:  Harold Baines, Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Mariano Rivera and Lee Smith.  Here is a review of their DTBL careers, going in alphabetical order.

    Harold Baines was one of the more controversial selections in recent years, chosen by the Veterans Committee after never receiving much support during his time on the Baseball Writers Association ballot.  Personally, I find arguments over players who *are* selected to be tiresome.  More time should be spent arguing about players who are left out rather than trying to diminish those selected.  Baines was an excellent player, and a personal favorite of mine.  That said, he was probably the least accomplished DTBL player of this group with his prime years coming well before this league started.  He was drafted by the Gators in the inaugural draft of 1993 and spent five seasons with them as their primary designated hitter and was a member of their 1995 championship team.  He then spent his final two seasons as a part time player on a couple expansion teams:  the Angels in 1998 and the Moonshiners inaugural season of 1999.  Baines hit at least .290 in every season except his last one.  All told, he compiled an impressive .303 career batting average with 81 home runs.

    The late Roy Halladay was a major part of the modern pitching evolution of the late 2000s and early 2010s when power pitchers started to rule the day.  He spent his entire DTBL career with the Jackalope and litters their career leaderboard.  His run from 2008 to 2011 was just about as good as it gets over a four year span.  In every one of those years, he struck out over 200 with ERAs below 3.00 and at least 17 wins.  He won the DTBL Cy Young Award in 2010 and finished third in 2008 and 2011.  On three occasions, he won 20+ games (2003, 2008, 2010).  In his 12 year career, he racked up 177 victories, which ranks 10th in league history and third among players who debuted after 2000, behind Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia.  Halladay is the Jackalope franchise career leader in wins and innings pitched and trails only Felix Hernandez in strikeouts.  His 75.8 Pitching PAR also leads the way, by a margin that will only increase when I get around to calculating the numbers from his first three seasons.  The Jackalope selected Halladay in the fourth round of the 2002 Draft.  I would say that pick worked out pretty well for them.  He was a critical piece of their first championship squad in 2011.

    As designated hitters go, nobody has ever been as good for as long as Edgar Martinez.  Interestingly enough though, he actually got his start in this league as a third baseman for three years, even though DH was an official position in our league in those days.  While he could certainly hit for power, his carrying tool was his ability to hit for average.  His career mark of .316 ranks ninth in league history.  But he hit over .320 for six consecutive seasons from 1995 through 2000.  Martinez debuted for the Kings in 1993 and then played for the expansion Metros in 1994 before settling in with the Cougars for the remainder of his career (1995 through 2004).  Unfortunately, my transaction records are a little scattered from the 90s, so I don't recall exactly how he made those team jumps.  I do know that the Cougars must have cut him loose after his typically solid 1998 season though because they then reacquired him with their first round pick in 1999.  I think expansion draft rules that year may have played a part.  But anyway, the Cougars managed to hang onto him and he continued to hit for them for years to come.  He won a DTBL Championship with the Cougars in 1996.  He is their career batting average leader at .317.  For his DTBL career, Martinez also hit 239 home runs with 956 RBI.  He topped 100 RBI in five different seasons.  There have been few pure hitters better than Edgar Martinez in the past quarter century.

    Justin Verlander needs just two more wins to reach 200 for his DTBL career.  When he does that, he will become just the fifth player in league history to reach that mark.  The other four are now all Hall-of-Famers, thanks to the recent induction of Mike Mussina.  Had I not just looked it up, I don't think I would have remembered or guessed that Mussina finished his career just one win shy of the league's all time leader, Greg Maddux.  Mussina won 239 games despite never compiling 20 in a single season.  He won exactly 20 for the first and only time in his final season of 2008, but was an in-season free agent signing by the Moonshiners that year and only compiled 16 wins for them.  But he posted double digit wins in an impressive 15 of 16 DTBL seasons.  In addition to all the wins, he also ranks fifth in league history with 2,576 strikeouts and pitched more innings than every pitcher not named Maddux.  They are the only two to record over 3,000 DTBL innings.  Mussina was drafted by the Kings in 1993 and spent two seasons with them before being part of one of the league's first blockbuster trades during the 1995 Draft.  Unfortunately, as covered earlier, my transaction records from those days are rather lacking, so I don't have the complete details.  But I do recall it being a huge deal.  Anyway, it certainly worked out for the Choppers who retained his services for the next 13 seasons.  He and Greg Maddux top pretty much all of the Choppers career pitching numbers.  That duo were a big reason why the Choppers won league titles in 1997 and 1999.  While he might not be at the top of your mind when you think of the all-time great pitchers, he should be.  Mike Mussina was one of the best pitchers in DTBL history.

    Mariano Rivera was the first player to ever be unanimously selected for the Hall of Fame.  His case for enshrinement was pretty impeccable.  Obviously, that would be true of his DTBL career as well.  His 643 career saves is an incredible 83 more than any other pitcher has accumulated.  I doubt anyone will come close to that total anytime soon.  He topped 30 saves in 15 of his 17 seasons, with injuries cutting short the two seasons in which he failed to reach that total.  Even in his final season of 2013, he managed to rack up 44 saves.  His career high save total came in 2004 with 53 and he reached 50 in 2001 as well.  But it wasn't just the saves.  His 2.02 ERA and 0.973 WHIP are both easily the lowest in league history among pitchers with at least 800 innings pitched.  He had so many seasons with a sub 2.00 ERA and 40+ saves that it is basically impossible to pick a career best season.  486 of Rivera's saves came with the Cougars who drafted him in the first round of 1997, coming right off the heals of their third championship in four years.  He remained with the Cougars all the way until 2009, when they traded him to the Mavericks for Mike Lowell, not the best trade the Cougars have ever made.  Rivera had a productive season and a half for the Mavericks before he was traded again during the 2011 Draft to the Choppers in exchange for a second round pick which would become Starlin Castro.  Rivera's final two seasons were with the Choppers where he continued to be one of the best relievers in baseball.  Oddly enough, Rivera never won a DTBL Championship while winning five World Series titles with the Yankees.  Mariano Rivera rode one pitch, a nasty cutter, to a Hall of Fame career.  He is the greatest relief pitcher in MLB and DTBL history.

    Finally, we have Lee Smith, the third former Thunder Chopper of this class.  Like Baines, he was selected by the Veterans Committee and compiled most of his Hall of Fame numbers before this league started.  That said, his DTBL career was short, but productive.  He was an inaugural DTBL Draft selection of the Choppers in 1993.  He saved 114 games for the Choppers in 1993 through 1995, which still puts him fourth in franchise history in that category.  His 33 saves in the strike shortened 1994 season led the league.  Through the first three seasons of this league's history, Smith held the all-time saves lead.  Obviously that didn't hold up very long though as he didn't record a save in his final DTBL season of 1996.  While he bounced around a whole bunch of MLB teams in the latter stages of his career, he did not pitch for any DTBL team besides the Choppers.  One of the original fireballing closers, Lee Smith is a worthy Hall of Famer.

    On to the awards for July 2019.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 15 (7/1 - 7/7) - Yulieski Gurriel, Demigods Week 16 (7/11 - 7/14) - Josh Donaldson, Jackalope Week 17 (7/15 - 7/21) - Ronald Acuna, Jackalope Week 18 (7/22 - 7/28) - Nelson Cruz, Komodos Week 19 (7/29 - 8/4) - Starling Marte, Komodos

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 15 (7/1 - 7/7) - Aaron Nola, Demigods Week 16 (7/11 - 7/14) - Mike Soroka, Mavericks Week 17 (7/15 - 7/21) - Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks Week 18 (7/22 - 7/28) - Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks Week 19 (7/29 - 8/4) - Justin Verlander, Kings

    July was a good month for Braves players and Mavericks pitchers, as three of each won weekly awards.  Braves and Jackalope teammates Josh Donaldson and Ronald Acuna took the Batter of the Week honors surrounding the All-Star break.  Two other DTBL teammates won the award the following couple weeks as Komodos sluggers Nelson Cruz and Starling Marte finished the month with a bang.  The Mavericks pitching staff has been heating up as of late.  60% of their rotation claimed a weekly honor in July with Mike Soroka, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg all continuing to pitch extremely well.  Two of the players listed above parlayed their strong weeks into a full month of excellence in July.

    Batter of the Month:

    Yulieski Gurriel, Demigods .398 AVG, 12 HR, 31 RBI, 18 R, 0 SB, 3.26 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks 1.14 ERA, 0.916 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 44 K, 3.21 PAR

    Yulieski Gurriel has been a solid big league hitter for some time now.  But one thing that has kept him from being discussed among the elite players in the game is a relative lack of power at a position where big home run totals are expected.  Entering this season, his career high for homers was 18 in 2017.  Entering July, he was on his typically pedestrian pace with just eight dingers.  But then he went and hit 12 in a span of 18 games and has already smashed his career high mark.  In addition to the dozen July home runs, he also came just short of hitting .400 for the month (.398).  Despite those gaudy numbers, he won this award by the slimmest of margins over Moonshiners third baseman Rafael Devers, who has basically been on fire for three straight months now.  Nobody else was close to Gurriel or Devers.

    It is genarally a good sign for a pitcher when he allows fewer earned runs than he knocks in at the plate in any given game.  In July, Stephen Strasburg pulled that trick for the entire month!  He surrendered just four earned runs while compiling a 1.14 ERA and added six RBIs to help his own cause while at the plate.  Strasburg continues the trend of veteran pitchers winning this monthly pitching honor.  But at 31 years old, he is actually the youngest pitcher to win this award in 2019.  He was a comfortable winner, but two other pitchers who had a great run in July were Astros righties Justin Verlander (Kings) and Gerrit Cole (Jackalope).  With the addition of Zack Greinke to their rotation, it would appear the Astros are well armed for another World Series run.

    A reminder that the DTBL trade deadline is coming up next week:  Thursday, August 15.  Trades must be accepted by both parties by midnight on the 15th, even though trades consummated between the 12th and 15th won't be processed until the following Monday.

  • Pitching Vets Continue Dominance

    Embed from Getty Images The first half of the 2019 season is in the books.  As covered last month, we remain on pace to have the league total home run record smashed and the highest pitching ERA in well over a decade.  MLB saw the record for most home runs hit in a month fall for a second consecutive month in June.  In the DTBL, we just missed the May total with three fewer homers hit by active players (596).

    What stands out to me in perusing the DTBL leaderboards is the stark contrast in experience between the league's top hitters and pitchers.  On the offensive side of things, there are a few veterans mixed in, but for the most part, the most productive batters are all in their 20s.  On the flip side, the league's best pitchers are all guys who have been dominating hitters for a decade or so.  Currently, the youngest pitcher in the top five of Pitching PAR is 32 year old Hyun-Jin Ryu.  The average age of those five hurlers is about 35 years old.  Joining the Naturals Ryu in that group of impressive veterans are the Kings Max Scherzer (34) and Justin Verlander (36), and Mooshiners Zack Greinke (35) and Charlie Morton (35).

    I'm not sure what to make of the continued success of all these veteran pitchers.  Perhaps this is why teams were mostly uninterested in paying huge money on long term deals to hitters this past winter, while the market's top free agent pitcher, Patrick Corbin, was signed before Christmas.  For a long time, teams were unwilling to sign almost any pitcher to a long term contract.  But now pitchers appear to be the safer bets to continue to be highly productive well into their 30s.  That would seem to bode well for upcoming free agent pitchers like Gerrit Cole and potentially Stephen Strasburg, should he opt-out of his current deal.

    Much to come in the upcoming days, including the announcement of the 2019 DTBL All-Star rosters.  So let's get straight to the June award winners.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 11 (6/3 - 6/9) - Edwin Encarnacion, Darkhorses Week 12 (6/10 - 6/16) - Charlie Blackmon, Cougars Week 13 (6/17 - 6/23) - D.J. LeMahieu, Choppers Week 14 (6/24 - 6/30) - Ronald Acuna, Jackalope

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 11 (6/3 - 6/9) - Walker Buehler, Komodos Week 12 (6/10 - 6/16) - Trevor Bauer, Choppers Week 13 (6/17 - 6/23) - Tyler Skaggs, Kings Week 14 (6/24 - 6/30) - Max Scherzer, Kings

    Well, I suppose this is as good a place as any to mention the tragic passing of 27 year old Angels and Kings pitcher Tyler Skaggs earlier this week.  Skaggs was an eighth round selection of the Kings in this year's draft and did a very nice job for the team, shuffling into and out of the lineup since early May.  As you can see above, he had a very strong final week in the lineup for the Kings in late June.  Skaggs also appeared for the Naturals in 2015.  From all accounts, he was a great person in addition to being a quality big league pitcher.  He will be missed.  RIP Tyler Skaggs.

    Batter of the Month:

    Ronald Acuna, Jackalope .331 AVG, 9 HR, 21 RBI, 28 R, 6 SB, 3.36 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Max Scherzer, Kings 1.00 ERA, 0.667 WHIP, 6 W, 0 SV, 68 K, 5.34 PAR

    Ronald Acuna is continuing to prove the Jackalope correct for selecting him with the first overall pick in this year's draft, not that anyone was ever questioning that pick anyway.  June was his best month yet though.  He showed off his prowess in all five categories.  He is currently fifth in the league in Batting PAR and joins Christian Yelich as the only two players with 20+ home runs and double digit stolen bases.  This was a very tight race though.  Had Cougars outfielder Charlie Blackmon not missed the first week of the month from the Cougars active roster, he would have finished in a virtual tie with Acuna.  Acuna's Braves teammate, Demigods first baseman Freddie Freeman had a great June as well.

    The race for June Pitcher of the Month was not close.  At this stage of his career, it is hard to rank all of the great Max Scherzer moments.  He has won a pair of DTBL Cy Young awards and three MLB Cy Youngs.  He has pitched two no-hitters and had a 20 strikeout game.  But June of 2019 might be the single best month of his distinguished career.  He even broke his nose in the middle of it, bouncing back to strike out 10 Phillies in seven scoreless innings a day later.  That might have been his most impressive outing of the month, but it wasn't the best statistically.  In two other starts, he struck out at least 14 batters allowing a single run and one or zero walks.  The complete picture was arguably the best pitching month in DTBL history.  No other DTBL pitcher has ever posted a single month with a 1.00 or lower ERA, 65+ strikeouts and six wins.  His 5.34 June PAR would be a great full season total for most pitchers.  This is the fourth consecutive year that Scherzer has won a Pitcher of the Month award and the third time in that span that he has won it in June.  The awards keep rolling in for the incomparable Scherzer.  Komodos rookie Walker Buehler and Jackalope righty Gerrit Cole finished second and third for this award, but neither had even half of Scherzer's PAR total.

  • 2019 Season Preview: Part IV

    Embed from Getty Images The final part of the 2019 DTBL season preview will cover the three teams projected to be the cream of the crop.  Two of the three were among the worst teams in the league a year ago.  However, a close examination of their rosters indicates that their struggles in 2018 were not due to a lack of talent.  Also, those rosters have been enhanced with some key additions via draft and trade.  The third team is less surprising, as they are the defending champions.  In the projected standings, there is an eight point gap between these teams and all of the ones covered previously, but only three points separate this trio.  In fact, spoiler alert, there is a projected tie for the top spot.  If you would like to skip to the bottom to see the full standings projections, be my guest.  But here are the three teams projected to be the top championship contenders in 2019.

    Nick's Naturals

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 5th (5th)

    • Home Runs - 5th (10th)

    • Runs Batted In - 8th (10th)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (10th)

    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (10th)

    • Earned Run Average - 2nd (2nd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (3rd)

    • Wins - 9th (4th)

    • Saves - 2nd (4th)

    • Strike Outs - 2nd (2nd)

    • Total Batting Points - 4th (10th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (2nd)

    • Total Points - 3rd (8th)

    Summary:

    Last year was a huge disappointment for the Naturals.  In this preview series a year ago, they were picked to finish second.  Poor performances and injuries knocked them out of contention early though.  It is safe to say they were not fielding their most capable lineup down the stretch either, causing them to finish in eighth place, their worst finish since 2008.  That allowed them to select Juan Soto with the third pick in the draft, who they immediately traded to the Mavericks for Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi should be one of their best all around players right from the start.  He will provide a boost to an offense that was kind of a disaster a year ago, finishing in last place in all of the counting categories.  Nolan Arenado and Trea Turner are their top returning hitters.  They do not appear to be as deep as the other top offenses in the league, but any improvement over last season will be much welcomed.  Some of that improvement could come from a bunch of their young guys who could be breakout candidates, including Yoan Moncado, Victor Robles and Amed Rosario.  The Naturals don't need to be the best offense in the league.  But as long as they bounce back to at least the middle of the pack, they should be in good shape.  While the '18 offense was a train wreck, the pitching staff was not.  They finished third in pitching points and enter this season with the core of the staff remaining intact.  Carlos Carrasco, Noah Syndergaard and James Paxton give them an excellent top of the rotation.  The bullpen is one of the league's best, headlined by Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias.  But the main man is Josh Hader, who provided impressive value to the Naturals last year despite not being a closer.  With Corey Knebel out for the season, Hader figures to add plenty of saves to his resume as well.  One thing that stuck out to me when reviewing the Naturals 2018 roster is how many of their castoffs were coveted by other teams and drafted relatively early.  You don't see that much from a team that finished near the bottom of the standings.  It indicates that this team is loaded with talent.  A jump from eighth to third place would be pretty impressive, but the pieces are there for it to be a realistic expectation.

    Jay's Jackalope

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 7th (8th)

    • Home Runs - 2nd (8th)

    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (9th)

    • Runs Scored - 3rd (9th)

    • Stolen Bases - 3rd (8th)

    • Earned Run Average - 7th (8th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (8th)

    • Wins - 2nd (8th)

    • Saves - 3rd (7th)

    • Strike Outs - 3rd (7th)

    • Total Batting Points - 2nd (9th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (8th)

    • Total Points - 1st-T (10th)

    Summary:

    While the five place jump projected for the Naturals is impressive, it pales in comparison to the Jackalope forecast.  The team that finished dead last in 2018 is now projected to tie for a league championship a year later.  If you are scoffing at this possibility, you shouldn't be.  This league has a history of teams bouncing from the bottom to the top in short order.  Just last year, the Kings won the championship a season removed from finishing ninth.  Also, it has basically been the story of the Jackalope franchise history.  They are almost never mediocre.  They either contend for the championship or finish near the bottom.  After three straight years of the latter, it would seem this season could see them return to the former.  The main reason for the optimistic outlook is the difference-making talent they added in the draft.  The two players in the draft pool with the highest projected PAR for this season were Ronald Acuna and Adalberto Mondesi.  They added both.  Acuna was the first pick in the draft and they traded up to grab Mondesi at the end of the first round.  Only two players are projected for a higher batting PAR than Mondesi (Mike Trout and Mookie Betts), who combines power with elite speed.  Acuna figures to be a five category stud himself.  But it isn't just the newcomers who have impressive projections.  Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rendon and Gary Sanchez are all among the best players at their positions.  Barring terrible injury luck, this will almost certainly be one of the best hitting teams in the league.  Whether or not they can actually contend for the championship will depend on the pitching staff, which was also not very good last year.  Gerrit Cole is the staff ace and should be one of the best pitchers in the game again this year.  His running mate from a year ago, Luis Severino, is a bit of a wild card this season though as he begins the season on the injured list with a bum shoulder.  It is paramount that they get him back sooner than later.  Otherwise, they will be counting on guys like Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow to have huge breakout years.  Their bullpen should be pretty good, but Wade Davis is the only safe bet to tally big save numbers.  The pitching staff should be better than last year, but there is not much room for error.  One thing is pretty clear though:  2019 is going to be a much better season for the Jackalope.

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 8th (9th)

    • Home Runs - 4th (4th)

    • Runs Batted In - 4th (3rd)

    • Runs Scored - 9th (5th)

    • Stolen Bases - 5th (5th)

    • Earned Run Average - 1st (5th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)

    • Wins - 4th (1st-T)

    • Saves - 4th (3rd)

    • Strike Outs - 1st (1st)

    • Total Batting Points - 6th-T (5th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 1st (1st)

    • Total Points - 1st-T (1st)

    Summary:

    It is not surprising to see the defending champion picked to win it all again (in a tie, in this case).  However, the 2018 Kings weren't your typical champions.  They won the league in large part because they had historically good seasons from three players, built what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the first half, but then hung on for dear life as most of the roster struggled badly in the second half of the season.  This was not a deep roster.  But the Kings do believe the roster will be better from top to bottom this season.  The projections point towards similar results as last year:  a mediocre offense and the best pitching staff in the league.  On the pitching front, it was all Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander a year ago.  The rest of the rotation was kind of a disaster and the bullpen wasn't great either.  Their first place ranking in pitching points was a testament to just how good Scherzer and Verlander were.  They return this year, of course, but are obviously both another year older.  They do have some interesting complementary pieces this time around though.  Zack Wheeler and Andrew Heaney were early round draft picks and both should be able to improve upon the non-Scherzer/Verlander parts of the Kings rotation.  The bullpen features three closers, at least to start the season, in Sean Doolittle, Will Smith and Arodys Vizcaino.  This has a chance to be the league's best pitching staff again this year.  In order to repeat though, the Kings will probably need a better offense than these projections portend.  Defending league MVP Mookie Betts is the only Kings hitter on the shortlist of the best players in the league.  But there are a handful of under the radar players who could be key contributors this season:  Rhys Hoskins, David Dahl, Adam Eaton and Mike Moustakas (I would have had Matt Olson on this list as well had he not broken his hand last week).  If enough of these guys can provide at least slightly above average production, the Kings offense should be good enough to contend again.  They will likely get a more spirited charge from other teams though, as at least half of the teams in the league could be championship contenders.

    Here are the full 2019 projected standings.  The three teams covered above appear to be the top championship contenders, but certainly a whole bunch of other teams could make a charge as well and render these numbers meaningless.  It should be another fun season!

  • Acuna, Soto Highlight Round One

    Embed from Getty Images The first round of the DTBL Draft almost always features a crop of young up-and-coming stars.  But this year's group is especially notable for their youth.  Eight of the ten players selected in the first round are under 25 years old, including the first seven picks of the draft.  And two players, Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, are among the most accomplished players at their age to ever enter the league.  Acuna and Soto just turned 21 and 20 respectively over the offseason.  All ten first round selections are DTBL rookies.  A trade of two marquee players also highlighted an excellent start to the 2019 DTBL Draft.

    For the second straight year, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year was the first pick of the draft.  Ronald Acuna joins the Jackalope coming off a stellar rookie campaign.  He hit .293 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, flashing all of his plus tools.  The Braves outfielder became a star almost immediately upon promotion and helped lead his team to an unexpected division championship.  He could help the Jackalope make a similar jump in the standings this year.  The Jackalope offense was especially disappointing a year ago, but the pieces are still there to be one of the best teams in the league.  Acuna was a pretty clear choice here.

    Last year, the Komodos took a young Dodgers star with the first pick of the draft (Cody Bellinger).  This year, they took another young Dodgers star with the second pick.  Walker Buehler should give a significant boost to a pitching staff that really struggled a year ago.  Buehler was pretty clearly the best pitcher available in this draft.  In 137 big league innings, he struck out 151 while posting an impressive 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  That ERA is a full point lower than any Komodos starting pitcher posted in '18, when they finished dead last in the league in that category, by a healthy margin.  Buehler will immediately become the Komodos best pitcher.

    Juan Soto has already put himself in rarefied air based on his accomplishments in the big leagues as a teenager.  Nobody was expecting Soto to reach the majors for another year or two, but a series of injuries to Nationals outfielders caused them to bring him up last May. He was an immediate success and made it impossible to send him back down.  He was so good in his rookie campaign that the Nationals decided to only make a halfhearted attempt to retain Bryce Harper this winter.  Soto hit .292 with 22 homers in just 414 at bats.  The Naturals selected him with the third pick and he could have joined his Nationals teammate Victor Robles to form an exciting young duo for the Naturals as well.  But Soto was immediately traded to the Mavericks in a blockbuster swap of outfielders.  In return, the Naturals acquired Andrew Benintendi.  These are two of the best outfielders in the game, so this is quite a swap.  Benintendi is more established and is a little more well-rounded, offering a stolen base threat as well.  But Soto has a nearly unlimited upside in the power categories.  It will be very interesting to compare these players as their careers progress.  For the Mavericks, an outfield of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge is pretty darn scary.  But the Naturals have no shortage of young star hitters either.

    With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners selected this year's most interesting player, two-way star Shohei Ohtani.  Coming over from Japan, Ohtani was expected to be an immediate star on the mound, but many questioned if he would really be able to hit big league pitching.  In fact, some thought if he truly wanted to be a two-way player, he may need some time in the minors.  Well, turns out he can hit major league pitching.  He hit .285 with 22 home runs in just 326 at bats.  An injury limited him to just 51 innings on the mound, where he struck out 63 with a 3.31 ERA.  Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in 2019.  He does intend to hit, but probably won't see action in a big league game until May.  The Moonshiners have all sorts of options with Ohtani.  First, they can use him at 1B or OF this year since he didn't play a non-pitching field position last year.  And looking forward, they will have the option to use him as either a pitcher or hitter next year, assuming he is a keeper.  The sky is the limit with this pick, but the Moonshiners probably won't get their money's worth until next year and beyond.

    The Mavericks aren't used to picking in the first half of the first round, at least not with their own pick.  Last year was the first time they finished in the bottom half of the standings since 2011.  They took advantage of the rare positioning to acquire two of the top five players selected in this draft.  In addition to the trade for Soto, they selected pitcher Jack Flaherty with the fifth pick.  The Mavericks have an absolutely loaded offense, but the once undisputed top pitching staff in the league was anything but that a year ago.  Injuries destroyed the staff and caused them to finish dead last in pitching points.  Flaherty is the first step to try to rebuild that group.  Overshadowed a bit by the players already mentioned above, he had a rather dominant rookie campaign as well.  182 strikeouts in 151 innings is great for any pitcher, much less a 22 year old rookie.  The Cardinals hurler also had a strong 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  He should provide stability for this revamped staff.

    The Cougars have had a pretty good recent track record of selecting hitters in the first round.  Second baseman Gleyber Torres is the next in line.  The Cougars will likely open the season with their offensive lineup featuring their past five first round picks.  Torres is younger than all of his predecessors though at the time of joining the squad.  He hit .271 with 24 home runs during his age 21 rookie season.  That combination of ability and age should make him a fixture on the Cougars roster for a very long time.  The Yankees have a lot of options in their infield this year, but one thing is certain.  Torres will be playing virtually every day, whether it be at second base or shortstop.

    Speaking of impressive young Yankees infielders, another one was selected with the seventh pick, with the Choppers taking third baseman Miguel Andujar.  Andujar hit .297 with 27 homers and 92 RBI, to finish second in the American League Rookie of the Year vote, behind Ohtani.  The only knock on him is his glove, but that matters not at all in fantasy.  The Choppers will look to Andujar to replace team legend and future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre, who retired over the winter.  If Andujar can provide a spark to the Choppers offense, they could have a chance of ending their 20 year title drought.

    For the second straight year, the Demigods took the old guy of the first round.  But in this case, it is still a league rookie.  Jesus Aguilar started the 2018 season as a bench player for the Brewers.  But the first baseman immediately showed off his incredible power, quickly earned a starting job, and then made the NL All-Star team.  He slugged 35 homers with 108 runs batted in.  He did cool off a bit in the second half of the season, with only 11 of those homers coming after the All-Star break.  Outside of maybe Acuna and Soto, he was probably the safest bet for power in this draft.  The Demigods finished eighth in home runs last year, the biggest weakness for an otherwise strong offensive team.

    The Darkhorses selected Braves pitcher Mike Foltynewicz with the eighth pick, making this the first time since 2015 that more than two pitchers were taken in the first round.  Foltynewicz had a breakout season a year ago, which earned him an All-Star appearance.  He struck out 202 hitters in 183 innings with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  His previous best ERA season was 4.31, so '18 saw quite a dramatic improvement.  While he has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, he is still just 27 years old.  The Darkhorses barely missed winning the championship last year, with a mediocre pitching staff holding them back.  Foltynewicz could be exactly what they need to get over the hump.

    Sitting with the last pick in the first round, the Kings believed there was one player remaining who was clearly the best available, but he was at a position in which they were already well stacked.  So instead, they swung a trade with the Jackalope to move up a spot to grab that player.  The Kings received the Jackalope 2nd round pick (11th overall) along with a swap of 4th round slots.  The Jackalope then took Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to close out the first round.  Mondesi is a rare breed in that he is an elite base stealer, but also has surprising power.  He managed to steal 32 bases and hit 14 home runs despite not making his big league season debut until late June.  While he's unlikely to maintain a pace like that for a full season, he still could be an above average contributor to the power categories while potentially leading the league in steals.  Once considered an elite prospect, Mondesi had slipped under the radar a bit before his 2018 breakout.  Slight spoiler alert for my upcoming season preview articles, but you definitely won't see the Jackalope projected to finish last again.  They managed to acquire the two players with the highest projected PAR in the entire draft pool.  So the Jackalope started and finished the first round with a bang.  Meanwhile, the Kings selected starting pitcher Zack Wheeler with that pick they acquired from the Jackalope, the first pick of the second round.

    Thanks to all of you for the excellent pace to the first half of this draft.  At this rate, we'll be done with plenty of time to spare before the Japan openers.  Let's keep up the good work!

  • Four DTBL Legends Enshrined

    Embed from Getty Images One of the cool things about the longevity of this league is that now most of the newly inducted members in the Baseball Hall of Fame are players who accumulated most of their Hall of Fame credentials as members of DTBL teams.  This has been the case for a while, but some year's classes carry more significance to this league than others.  The 2018 class featured four of the best players in our league's history:  Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome.  Also inducted were Alan Trammell and Jack Morris.  Trammell played until 1996, but was never on a DTBL major league roster.  Morris had a brief, unimpressive stint with the Gators in the league's inaugural season.  But here is a synopsis of the DTBL careers of the big four who were inducted in Cooperstown the last week of July.

    Vladimir Guerrero was originally drafted by the expansion Angels in 1998 and was a member of that team for their only season of existence.  He then returned to the draft pool the following year and somehow fell all the way to the Choppers with the 8th pick of the 1999 draft.  Needless to say, that pick worked out pretty well for them.  He spent the remaining 13 seasons of his DTBL career with the Choppers, winning a championship in his first season with them (1999).  Guerrero ranks sixth in DTBL history with a .319 average and is in the top 10 in RBI as well (1,415).  His name is littered all over the Choppers franchise leaderboard:  second in average (.319), RBI (1,306) and runs (1,130), third in home runs (390) and sixth in stolen bases (165).  Not everyone recalls his base stealing prowess.  There are 16 DTBL players with 400 home runs (Adrian Beltre just recently joined this group).  Of those 16 guys, only Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds and Gary Sheffield have more than Guerrero's 176 career steals.  Vlad was as consistent of a hitter as the league has ever seen.  In his first nine seasons, he hit over .300 with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI in all but one year (2003).  In seasons in which he qualified for the batting title (400 at bats) his *worst* batting average was .300 in 2010.

    In the history of baseball, only one pitcher has recorded more saves than Trevor Hoffman (Mariano Rivera).  The same is true of DTBL history.  His 560 saves is 136 more than any pitcher not named Rivera, so he figures to hold onto the second spot for quite some time to come.  Unlike the other three players covered here, Hoffman doesn't have an obvious choice of team cap to wear on his fictional DTBL Hall of Fame plaque.  He spent time with six different franchises.  His longest tenures were five seasons with two different teams:  Panthers (1997-2001) and Moonshiners (2004-2008).  He started his career with the Kings (1995-1997), spent two stints with the Darkhorses (2002-2003, 2009) and split his final season (2010) with the Mavericks and Naturals.  He is the Moonshiners franchise leader in saves (202) and ranks third on the Panthers list (191).  Hoffman recorded at least 30 saves every year from 1995 through 2008, except for an injury marred 2003.  In addition to the gaudy save totals, he also struck out 948 batters, which ranks fourth among pitchers who spent their entire careers in the bullpen.  His 2.78 career ERA ranks fourth among all pitchers.  He was a member of two DTBL championship winning teams, near the end of his career:  the 2009 Darkhorses and 2010 Naturals.

    Chipper Jones was a slugging third baseman in an era when that wasn't really a thing.  It is basically him and Adrian Beltre at the top of all of the DTBL third baseman hitting rankings.  Most of his best seasons were spent as a member of the Jackalope.  He started his career with the Tidal Wave and was with them for both of their years of existence.  Then he joined another expansion team, the Jackalope, as their first pick in 1998.  He was released by the Jackalope after a decent 2006 season and added a couple more solid years with the Darkhorses in 2007 through 2009.  His final three seasons saw him bounce from the Cougars to the Mavericks and then back to the Darkhorses.  It was the Jackalope years that really made him a Hall of Fame player though.  With them, he hit .310 with 276 home runs, 874 RBI and 868 runs, all four totals rank in the top four of Jackalope history.  His career numbers also put him in elite company:  .308, 411 HR, 1,422 RBI, 1,414 runs.  The only other members of the .300/400/1,400/1,400 club are Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Albert Pujols.  While Jones' best seasons were with the Jackalope, his championship winning years came with the Darkhorses.  He was a member of the Darkhorses for the first three of their four consecutive titles (2007-2009).  He was a teammate of Hoffman's on that 2009 squad.

    Finally, we have Jim Thome, one of the most feared sluggers of the past quarter century.  Thome ranks fourth on the DTBL career list in home runs (546) and fifth in runs batted in (1,492).  No current member of the Baseball Hall of Fame has accumulated more DTBL home runs or RBI than Thome.  He is one of the few sluggers at the top of those lists without any PED taint.  He spent his entire DTBL career with just two teams.  Thome was originally a member of the Kings, but is best remembered as a member of the Choppers, who acquired him in the second round of the 1999 draft.  Yes, the Choppers selected Hall of Famers in the first two rounds of that '99 draft.  He spent 11 seasons with the Choppers (1999-2009), which was surrounded by a pair of stints with the Kings (1995-1998, 2010).  With the Choppers, he amassed 401 home runs, bested only by Sammy Sosa.  His 1,094 RBI and 976 runs both rank fourth in Choppers history.  Thome hit at least 40 home runs in six different seasons.  Probably the best season of his career came in 2002 when he slugged a career high 52 homers with a .304 average.  From 1999 through 2003, he hit at least 30 home runs with 100+ RBI and runs each year.  His lone DTBL championship came in his first season with the Choppers, 1999, when he was a teammate of Guerrero's.  Coincidentally, all four of these new Hall-of-Famers were members of either the 1999 Choppers or 2009 Darkhorses.

    Congratulations to four of the greatest players in DTBL history:  Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome!

    Now here are the weekly and monthly award winners for July 2018.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 15 (7/2 - 7/8) - Yulieski Gurriel, Demigods Week 16 (7/9 - 7/15) - Jose Ramirez, Komodos Week 17 (7/16 - 7/22) - Matt Carpenter, Choppers Week 18 (7/23 - 7/29) - Jonathan Schoop, Mavericks

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 15 (7/2 - 7/8) - Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners Week 16 (7/9 - 7/15) - Aaron Nola, Demigods Week 17 (7/16 - 7/22) - Zack Greinke, Moonshiners Week 18 (7/23 - 7/29) - Rick Porcello, Cougars

    Compiling the information above exposed a bit of a flaw in my code that captures the Batter and Pitcher of the Week winners each week.  In two instances, the above players were not the ones I captured.  Instead, I had players who weren't on an active DTBL roster at the time.  This has happened before, but I don't recall seeing two instances of it in the same month.  I should probably take some time to fix this.  Anyway, because I don't store weekly PAR numbers beyond the top batter and pitcher, I had to take a guess at who should have won these awards.  So it is quite possible that Yulieski Gurriel and Rick Porcello were not the rightful winners in their respective weeks.  What is certain is the accuracy of the monthly PAR totals for July.  Here are the players of the month.

    Batter of the Month:

    Jose Ramirez, Komodos .322 AVG, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R, 11 SB, 3.55 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Zack Greinke, Moonshiners 1.60 ERA, 0.891 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 35 K, 2.61 PAR

    When I see eye-popping numbers in all five categories, I often will run a Baseball Reference Play Index search to see if any other players in DTBL history have matched or exceeded all of the monthly numbers compiled by the batter or pitcher of the month.  In this case, Jose Ramirez's July, I found no results.  So, prior to July, no DTBL player had ever hit .322+ with 8+ home runs, 25+ RBI, 21+ runs and 11+ stolen bases in a single month.  These numbers were especially impressive coming in July with the All-Star break taking away a couple additional games played.  Ramirez is currently leading the DTBL in Batting PAR and home runs.  He is second in stolen bases and not far behind the leaders in RBI and runs either.  The Komodos third baseman has a strong case for MVP if he continues to be a five category force.  Ramirez won this award in a landslide, but finishing second was his Indians teammate Francisco Lindor.

    Zack Grienke is quietly compiling another great season to add to his impressive career resume.  When discussing the top pitchers of the game today, Greinke is rarely mentioned.  But he is posting a sub 3.00 ERA with a dozen wins and more than a strikeout per inning.  In July, Greinke tied for the league lead with four wins while compiling a 1.60 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.  With the recently added 2005 PAR numbers, Greinke's entire career PAR has been calculated.  Since 2005, only three other pitchers (Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer) have exceeded his 79.0 PAR.  Greinke just barely edged out Chris Sale for this monthly honor.

  • Contact Problems

    Embed from Getty Images The first month of the 2018 baseball season is in the books. Early indications are that the recent surge of the three true outcomes (home runs, walks, strikeouts) is far from over. Perhaps most troubling is that MLB saw more strikeouts than hits in the first month of the season. That had never previously happened over a full month in the history of baseball. In our league, I don't keep track of hitters' strikeouts, so I am not certain if that was the case for DTBL hitters. But it definitely was for pitchers. Through Friday's games, DTBL pitchers have recorded 2,663 strikeouts compared to 2,059 hits allowed. To be clear, DTBL pitchers recording more strikeouts than hits allowed isn't new. It has happened over each of the past six full seasons. But the current K/H ratio of 1.29 would blow away last year's record high of 1.14. Because home run rates are still historically high, overall scoring in baseball is only slightly down from the last couple years and still higher than it was a few years back. But the current DTBL league batting average of .259 is eight points lower than the league's record full-season low of .267 (2015). Average tends to rise as the weather warms up though, so I'm not going to read into that too much. The big takeaway from the first month numbers is clearly the rise in strikeouts and drop in hits. Fewer balls in play tends to make for a less interesting game. So let's hope this trend doesn't continue much longer.

    In the DTBL, March/April was dominated by the Kings, who are looking to bounce back from an awful 2017 season.  They finished April with a double digit lead.  They held onto first place most of the month.  The Darkhorses and Mavericks are in pretty good shape as well.  Interestingly, it is the Mavericks' usually reliable pitching staff that has kept them from leading the league in the early stages of the season.

    As for the players, the leaderboards are topped by a lot of familiar names with a bunch of impressive rookies mixed in as well.  Below are the Players of the Week and Players of the Month for March/April.  Please note that the games from March were included in determining the April Player of the Month awards.  Also, there is going to be one extra set of weekly award winners as I did separate that season opening weekend (Thursday through Sunday) into its own week.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 1 (3/29 - 4/1) - Adam Eaton, Kings Week 2 (4/2 - 4/8) - Didi Gregorius, Jackalope Week 3 (4/9 - 4/15) - Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope Week 4 (4/16 - 4/22) - Manny Machado, Mavericks Week 5 (4/23 - 4/29) - Gary Sanchez, Jackalope

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 1 (3/29 - 4/1) - Jose Berrios, Darkhorses Week 2 (4/2 - 4/8) - Jameson Taillon, Cougars Week 3 (4/9 - 4/15) - Max Scherzer, Kings Week 4 (4/16 - 4/22) - Patrick Corbin, Darkhorses Week 5 (4/23 - 4/29) - Masahiro Tanaka, Choppers

    It was a good month for Jackalope hitters as three of them won weekly honors.  It was an up-and-down month for several of the players listed above, particularly the pitchers.  But at least two of them were strong throughout the month and are recipients of the Player of the Month awards.  As a reminder, these are not subjective choices on my part.  These are the players who accumulated the highest batting and pitching PAR for the month.  Again, "month" isn't entirely accurate in this case as the last few days of March were included as well.  Here are the award winners for April 2018.

    Batter of the Month:

    Didi Gregorius, Jackalope .327 AVG, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 24 R, 2 SB, 2.55 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Max Scherzer, Kings 1.62 ERA, 0.821 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 57 K, 3.69 PAR

    Didi Gregorius had the unenviable task of replacing a legend at shortstop for the Yankees.  But since taking over for Derek Jeter in 2016, he has been nothing short of spectacular.  This year, it seems he may be reaching a new level though.  He finished April with 10 home runs.  His career high is 25, which he recorded last season.  The Jackalope nabbed Gregorius in the fourth round last year and have been rewarded handsomely ever since.  Gregorius edged out A.J. Pollock for this award.  Five of the top nine finishers were Mavericks, led by first round pick Ozzie Albies.

    Pitcher of the Month awards are nothing new for Max Scherzer.  This is the third time he has won it since I officially started tracking this in 2016:  (June '16, May '17).  At this point, I think it is safe to say that Scherzer is the most consistently dominant pitcher in baseball.  The two time reigning NL Cy Young award winner is the early leader for that award again this season.  His closest competition for this monthly award was his Kings teammate, Justin Verlander.  Corey Kluber and Gerrit Cole had tremendous opening months as well.

  • 2018 Season Preview: Part III

    Embed from Getty Images
    Opening Day is in the books.  Matt Davidson is on pace to hit 486 home runs this season.  That would be a record.  It is great to have baseball back in our lives.  This should be a fun opening weekend, paired with Easter celebrations.  There are four teams remaining in this DTBL preview series.  Today I’ll cover the teams projected to finish in third and fourth places.  These particular teams have been among the most volatile squads in the league in recent years.  Both have won championships in the past three seasons and both have finished near the bottom of the league as well.  In fact, these were two of the three worst teams in the league just last season.  So things would appear to be trending up, if these projections prove accurate.  Unlike all of the previous six teams that I have covered, we have now reached the teams that appear to be at least average in both batting and pitching.  Here is a preview of a couple teams who figure to be in the championship hunt.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 1st (1st)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 6th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (6th)
    • Wins – 8th (9th)
    • Saves – 1st (8th)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (3rd-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (9th)
    • Total Points – 4th (8th)

    Summary:

    After a season away, Jay is back in charge of the Jackalope.  While ’17 was a little disappointing for the Jackalope on the whole, they did exert their power, leading the league in home runs.  They are projected to repeat that this season, maintaining a strong offense supported by an improved pitching staff.  They focused heavily on rebuilding the pitching staff in the draft, selecting a pair of starting pitchers named Luis, Severino and Castillo, in the first two rounds.  Those two join Jake Arrieta, Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole to make up a rotation that has the potential to be very good.  While the bullpen looks to be pretty good as well, I’m not sure I’m buying the first place in saves projection.  Mark Melancon’s health is a big concern.  Wade Davis is definitely the stud in the pen.  Kelvin Herrera and Blake Parker could be nice additions, but they come with questions as well.  Overall though, this does appear to be a much improved pitching staff.  The Jackalope remain powerful with the bats.  New Yankee and reigning DTBL MVP Giancarlo Stanton has the highest batting PAR projection in the league.  Paul Goldschmidt is in the top five as well.  Gary Sanchez is probably the best hitting catcher in the game right now.  Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rendon are near the top among third basemen as well.  An interesting addition to the slugging Jackalope is Rougned Odor.  If he can rebound from a pretty poor ’17 season, he’ll provide another big power boost to the Jackalope infield.  Outside of Stanton, the outfield is less impressive.  But on the whole, the Jackalope should have an above average offense.  With an improved pitching staff, the Jackalope should finish much higher in the standings than they have the past couple seasons, and a championship drive is a possibility as well.

    Kevin’s Kings

    Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (7th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd (8th)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 3rd (7th)
    • Stolen Bases – 6th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 6th (4th)
    • Wins – 7th (4th)
    • Saves – 6th (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 1st (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (4th-T)
    • Total Points – 3rd (9th)

    Summary:

    2017 was a disaster for the Kings.  They nearly pulled off the embarrassing feat of going from first to worst, narrowly finishing ahead of the Gators for ninth place.  Not to make too many excuses, but this team was completely decimated by injuries, especially to their hitters.  The talent from the ’16 championship squad is still mostly there, so it seems reasonable to expect better results this year, provided they have better luck on the health front.  The projections show massive improvement on the offensive side of things.  The Kings first three draft picks were all sluggers:  Rhys Hoskins, Matt Olson and Evan Gattis.  Gattis could be a particularly key addition, occupying a usually weak catcher slot while accumulating regular at bats as a DH for the Astros.  Mookie Betts and Carlos Correa remain the Kings two best offensive players, but Hoskins has the potential to be right up there with them.  Three outfielders who were hurt for significant portions of last season could be the key to the Kings success this year:  A.J. Pollock, Adam Eaton and Ian Desmond.  Pollock, in particular, is an elite fantasy player when healthy.  The Kings are projected to accumulate the most batting points in the league.  That may be a tad optimistic, but they certainly appear to be stronger than the ’17 version.  The pitching staff hasn’t changed much.  Max Scherzer is still the undisputed ace.  It will be interesting to see how Justin Verlander fares in a full season in Houston.  Marcus Stroman, Jon Gray and Lance McCullers are three relatively young pitchers who could be poised for breakout campaigns.  The bullpen might actually exceed these projections as 12th round pick Brad Boxberger was named the Diamondbacks closer to begin the season.  He joins Sean Doolittle, Arodys Vizcaino and Jeurys Familia to give the Kings four closers to start the season.  Nate Jones is waiting in the wings as well.  It is reasonable to think that ’17 was a blip on the radar for a team that has championship aspirations.  The Kings have a very good chance of being in the pennant race this season.

  • Komodos Nab Bellinger

    Embed from Getty Images
    The 2018 DTBL Draft kicked off Thursday, March 8.  The first pick belonged to the league’s newest member, Kat’s Komodos.  Inheriting a Gators roster that was well stocked with hitters but very much lacking in pitching, the biggest question going into the draft was if they would select a player based on need or take the best player available.  The Komodos did the latter, picking the consensus top player in the draft pool, Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger.  As usual, the first round as a whole skewed young with nine DTBL rookies selected, four of whom didn’t make their MLB debuts until after the All-Star break last season.  The first round was light on pitching this year as eight of the top ten were hitters.

    In retrospect, the decision to take Bellinger with the first pick was probably pretty easy for the Komodos.  The reigning National League Rookie of the Year will give them a huge power boost and may even position them as one of the deepest offensive teams in the league.  Bellinger made his presence known right from the start.  He was a NL All-Star as a rookie.  He hit 39 home runs with 97 RBI and 87 runs despite not making his debut until late April.  His .267 average was quite respectable for a slugging rookie and he even stole 10 bases.  Bellinger should be a star for the Komodos for a long time to come.

    In many ways, the Kings faced a similar predicament to the Komodos with the second pick and made the same decision, taking the player they believed to be the best available despite it not being a position of great need.  With that pick, the Kings selected first baseman turned outfielder Rhys Hoskins.  The Phillies young slugger came up through the minors as a modestly rated prospect who did nothing but mash at every level of the minors.  That continued in the majors, despite also having to learn a new position at the big league level.  Hoskins slugged 18 homers in just 50 major league games, pumping out a ridiculous 1.014 OPS.  With the Phillies signing Carlos Santana this winter, it appears they will continue to deploy Hoskins to the outfield.  Even if that goes poorly, Hoskins’ bat will force its way into the lineup on a daily basis.

    With the third pick, the Jackalope were able to do both of the things mentioned above:  pick the best player available and fill a glaring hole in the roster.  They selected Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino.  Severino is technically a DTBL rookie, having never appeared on an active roster before.  But this is the second time he has been drafted.  The Naturals picked him in the 5th round in 2016, but he started the season in the minors and was released in May.  After that disappointing ’16 campaign, he was removed from the league last year, causing us to miss out on his breakout season.  In 2017, he became one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP with 14 wins and 230 strikeouts.  The Jackalope pitching staff really struggled a year ago, making Severino a perfect fit.  They are also quite heavy on Yankees now, employing Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Sonny Gray and Dellin Betances.  Not a bad group.

    The top three of the draft seemed pretty clear cut.  Predicting who would go fourth and beyond was a bit more challenging.  The Choppers had the fourth pick and used it on second baseman Whit Merrifield who went from relative obscurity to fantasy monster during the course of the 2017 season.  The Royals infielder hit .288 with 19 home runs, 34 stolen bases, 80 runs and 78 RBI.  He was a plus contributor to all five categories, but especially stolen bases.  The Choppers had the worst offense in the league last year (in terms of batting points), so adding a do-it-all infielder makes plenty of sense.  It remains to be seen if the power was real, but in today’s home run climate, it seems quite possible it was.

    Last year, the Moonshiners somewhat regretted passing on a young Red Sox up-and-comer in the first round in Andrew Benintendi.  They ensured that the same mistake wouldn’t be made again this year, grabbing third baseman Rafael Devers with the fifth pick.  Devers was just 20 years old when he made his MLB debut last summer.  But he earned his promotion by demolishing every level of the minors on his way up.  And the hitting continued when he reached the big leagues.  He hit .284 with 10 homers in 58 major league games.  Considering his age, the sky is the limit with this guy.  Early signs are that he is going to be a great hitter with above average power.  That should make him a fixture at hot corner for the Moonshiners for a very long time.

    While hitters took most of the spotlight of the first round, there were a couple very intriguing pitchers selected as well.  The second of those was Twins starter Jose Berrios, picked sixth by the Darkhorses.  Berrios earned elite prospect status on his ascension up the minor league ladder, but a rocky MLB debut season in 2016 dampened expectations a bit.  But in 2017, he regained his status as an exciting young hurler.  He posted a solid 3.89 ERA and 1.229 WHIP with 14 wins and 139 strikeouts in 145 innings, helping lead the Twins to a surprising Wild Card berth.  He should immediately boost a Darkhorses pitching staff that finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins last season.

    The Demigods selected the lone non-DTBL rookie of the first round with pick number seven.  Outfielder Ender Inciarte continues to be one of the more underrated all-around players in baseball.  With a weak Braves team around him last year, he managed to hit .304 with 11 homers, 93 runs scored and 22 stolen bases.  What a difference a year can make to a player’s stock.  The Darkhorses drafted Inciarte for the second time last year, in the 12th round.  Now he’s a first rounder.  For the record, the Darkhorses also drafted him in the fourth round in 2016.  With the investment of a first round pick, I have a feeling he will stick around for a while this time with the Demigods.

    Following that selection of a DTBL “veteran”, the Cougars picked an outfielder who will be a rookie in this league, but is actually almost three years older than Inciarte.  Now 30 years old, Tommy Pham broke out big time for the Cardinals in ’17.  He hit .306 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases, becoming a legitimate five category force, seemingly out of nowhere.  This has become a consistent trend in the Cardinals organization:  late blooming non-prospects becoming excellent major league contributors.  There are plenty of reasons to believe Pham’s breakout is sustainable, most notably that he has been able to harness his degenerative vision problems.

    For the second straight year, the Naturals used their first round pick on one of the top prospects in baseball who probably will spend a bulk of the upcoming season in the minors.  With the ninth pick, they selected young Nationals outfielder Victor Robles.  Considered the possible heir apparent to Bryce Harper in the Nats outfield, should Harper decide to take his talents elsewhere next winter, Robles has elite hitting, fielding and running skills.  Though not a big time slugger to this point of his career, scouts believe that will come as well.  MLB.com has him ranked as the #6 prospect in baseball and #1 among those who have already made their MLB debuts.  Robles is just 20 years old, so this is a long-term play for the Naturals.

    Finally, the defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting another young hitter who splashed onto the scene late in the 2017 season, Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies.  Albies hit .286 with six home runs and eight stolen bases in 57 big league games, basically replicating the numbers he posted in AAA as a 20 year old.  So for those of you scoring at home, that’s three first round picks on guys who will enter the ’18 season at age 21 or younger (Albies, Devers, Robles).  The Mavericks don’t really have any holes, but Albies will slot in nicely at 2B.

    The first round didn’t feature any trades this year, but there have been three separate deals since the first round ended, involving six different teams.  First, the Mavericks continued a revamp of their bullpen, dealing Aroldis Chapman to the Komodos for their second round pick (11th overall).  That pick was used on a very interesting pitcher, Alex Reyes.  Reyes should return from Tommy John surgery in May.  While his exact role remains a mystery, there are a few intriguing possibilities including closer or spot starter.  The fact that he will be designated as a reliever for this season could make him extremely valuable once he is healthy.  Meanwhile, Chapman gives the Komodos a reliable anchor in their bullpen which had no such commodities on the returning roster.

    The next trade saw the Choppers flip their second round pick (14th overall) to the Naturals for outfielder Andrew McCutchen.  Once one of the best players in the league, McCutchen quietly put up pretty strong numbers across the board last year and will now be applying his craft in San Francisco.  As mentioned above, the Choppers needed a boost to their offense, so McCutchen should help to that end.  The Naturals used the acquired pick on the top closer in this draft, Pirates lefty Felipe Rivero, a former teammate of McCutchen’s.  Rivero had a dominant debut as a closer in ’17, saving 21 games with a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP.

    The third deal was a swap of power hitters, in an attempt to clear position log jams on both ends.  The Kings dealt their longtime slugging outfielder Jay Bruce to the Cougars for first baseman Justin Bour.  On the Kings side, this was mostly a move to clear an overcrowded outfield, but also to get younger.  Trading away Bruce allowed them to select rookie outfielder Willie Calhoun with their subsequent pick, in the fifth round.  Of course, hours after they drafted Calhoun, he got sent to the minors.  But this was a future value play anyway.  Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t have much use for Bour after drafting Justin Smoak and Bruce fills a need for a power hitting outfielder.

    With four rounds remaining in the draft, we should easily finish up with time to spare before Opening Day.  Thanks to everyone for keeping things moving.  I hope to start my season preview articles this upcoming weekend.  Until then, keep up the good work!

     

     

  • Stanton Slugs Way to MVP

    Embed from Getty Images
    2017 will be remembered as the year of the non-steroid enhanced home run.  A record number of homers were hit in MLB this season and the most in the DTBL since 2000.  29 DTBL players hit at least 30 round-trippers and 70 players hit at least 20.  Despite this proliferation of homers, one player managed to separate himself from the pack.  Jackalope outfielder Giancarlo Stanton slugged 59 homers, 10 more than any other player.  That is the largest gap between the top two home run hitters in DTBL history (tying Albert Belle in 1995).  In a crowded field of strong candidates, Stanton has come out on top as the 2017 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    Yesterday, I adjusted the 2017 PAR numbers to be based on a five year set of stats including the recently completed season.  In doing so, most hitters saw their PAR take a slight drop, particularly power hitters.  Stanton was no exception.  His PAR dropped from 12.1 to 11.7, which cost him the top spot on the PAR leaderboard since 2009.  Mookie Betts’ 2016 total of 11.72 edged Stanton by one tenth of a point.  Stanton did lead the league in that category in 2017 though, in addition to soaring past the field in home runs and also leading the way in RBI (132).  His 123 runs trailed only Charlie Blackmon.  Even his .281 batting average was quite impressive for such a prodigious slugger.  While Stanton has been a force ever since he made it to the majors, this was easily his best season yet.

    The Jackalope drafted Stanton with the sixth overall pick of the 2011 draft.  He has been their most consistent power hitter ever since.  In his seven DTBL seasons, he has hit at least 20 home runs in each one.  Only injuries have been able to slow him down on occasion.  2017 was clearly his best season to date, but 2014 was pretty darn good as well when he finished second in the MVP race.  This year marked his fourth All-Star appearance.  He was a major contributor to both of the Jackalope’s championships (2011 and 2015).    This was a disappointing season for the Jackalope, but that was mostly because of the pitching staff.  Stanton helped them easily lead the league in home runs with 364, the highest team total since 2003.  Stanton and Jackalope teammate Paul Goldschmidt formed the most fearsome duo in the league this season.

    Stanton clearly had a MVP caliber season, but he was not alone.  He received half of the first place votes and appeared on all ten ballots, but in scattered positions.  In total, he accumulated 77 points, winning this award by 19 over Cougars outfielder Charlie Blackmon.  Blackmon was no doubt a benefactor of the Coors effect, but his numbers across the board were legitimately spectacular, leading the league in runs (137) while hitting .331 with 37 homers, 104 RBI and 14 stolen bases.  He received a pair of first place votes and was the only player besides Stanton to make it on every ballot.  Finishing third was the DTBL Rookie of the Year, Mavericks outfielder Aaron Judge.  Stanton was the only DTBL player to hit more home runs than Judge this year.  Judge received one first place vote and 46 total points.  Interestingly enough, that allowed him to edge out American League MVP Jose Altuve by a single point.  With a AL MVP and World Series championship under his belt, Altuve is now receiving proper recognition as one of the best players in the sport.  This is the third time in four years that he has finished in the top four of the MVP race.  He won the league batting title, hitting .346 with 24 home runs and 32 stolen bases.  The Demigods second baseman received a pair of first place votes, but was edged out by Judge because he received just one second place tally.  The top four finishers all received first place votes and made strong arguments to win this award.  But so did the guy who finished fifth, Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.  Goldschmidt accumulated 18 points.  It is definitely worth checking out the voting results.  There was a clear lack of consensus on where each player should finish.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    As mentioned above, yesterday, I completed the end-of-season PAR adjustments for the 2017 figures.  I’m also in the process of adding PAR numbers for the 2008 season, which means we will have ten full seasons worth of data for that stat very soon.  I have a lot planned for this winter, including a revamp of the transaction processing portions of the web site.  So if you have any suggestions on improvements, please let me know.

    Happy Thanksgiving!

  • September Storylines

    Embed from Getty Images In some circles, it is believed that I have magical powers that allow me to alter the state of the championship race by declaring certain teams dead, thereby causing those teams to actually find their way back into the race. There has been little proof of this, however, as what was described as a two team race a month ago has now become more of a solo act. The Mavericks now hold a double digit lead with just three and a half weeks to go. Is it over? Are the Mavericks a lock to win their first championship in 11 years? Eh, not exactly.

    While the Mavericks have held a double digit lead for a couple weeks now, they are not completely bulletproof. On the batting side, they hold precarious leads over chasing teams in pretty much all five categories. And they are currently nursing several injuries to hitters. Without any free agent signings remaining, they don't have a lot of options to replace injured players either, not that the free agent pool has anybody worth signing at this point anyway. As for pitching, they are sitting pretty and it seems highly unlikely they could lose more than a point or two in pitching categories, especially with Clayton Kershaw healthy again. Perhaps someday I will come up with a way of calculating championship odds, but for now, I'm going to take a blind guess instead. I'd give the Mavericks close to a 90% chance of winning the title, with the other 10% split between the Naturals and Demigods. I suppose a few other teams could enter the picture with a couple ridiculously hot weeks. But it is pretty much the Mavericks title to lose.  There, I said it.

    So the championship race may not be particularly exciting right now, but there are some other very interesting storylines to follow down the stretch. First is the impressive power display by Jackalope outfielder Giancarlo Stanton (spoiler alert: he will be mentioned again below). Stanton currently sits at 53 home runs and has a great chance to be the first person to reach 60 since 2001. In fact, if you exclude the seasons during the peak of the steroid era (1998-2001), Stanton could surpass the next highest single season home run total (Ryan Howard, 58, 2006). While the actual single season home run record (73) is probably not realistic, Stanton does have a great shot at a different kind of home run record: margin of victory for the home run crown. In 1995, Albert Belle hit 10 more homers than any other player. Nobody else has repeated that feat since. Currently, Stanton leads Moonshiners' Khris Davis by 14 home runs. At his recent pace, hard to imagine Stanton not expanding upon that lead.

    The MVP and Cy Young races are both way too close to call right now. In fact, there are so many hitters in play for MVP that I'm not even going to mention all of them here. On the pitching side, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer have been the presumptive Cy Young leaders most of the summer, but Corey Kluber has been coming on strong and a now-healthy Kershaw can't be ignored either. Will Sale reach 300 strikeouts? If he gets to 302, it will be the highest single season mark since 2002.

    Now a belated look back at the award winners for August 2017:

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 18 (7/31 - 8/6) - Willson Contreras, Demigods Week 19 (8/7 - 8/13) - Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope Week 20 (8/14 - 8/20) - Rougned Odor, Naturals Week 21 (8/21 - 8/27) - Byron Buxton, Choppers Week 22 (8/28 - 9/3) - Jose Ramirez, Gators

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 18 (7/31 - 8/6) - Cole Hamels, Demigods Week 19 (8/7 - 8/13) - Corey Kluber, Demigods Week 20 (8/14 - 8/20) - Gio Gonzalez, Gators Week 21 (8/21 - 8/27) - Masahiro Tanaka, Choppers Week 22 (8/28 - 9/3) - Jeff Samardzija, Moonshiners

    August was a good month for veteran pitchers.  Four of the five Pitchers of the Week are at least 31 years old, with Tanaka being the young guy (28).  It was also a good month for a few under-the-radar stars like Jose Ramirez and Gio Gonzalez.  The Moonshiners July trade for Jeff Smardzija has been paying dividends as well.  But let's face it, August was all about one guy, who obviously won the Batter of the Month award:

    Batter of the Month:

    Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope .349 AVG, 18 HR, 37 RBI, 28 R, 1 SB, 4.81 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Corey Kluber, Demigods 1.96 ERA, 0.630 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 54 K, 4.35 PAR

    As amazing as Jose Altuve's July was, Giancarlo Stanton kicked it up another notch in August.  He had the best month of this season by a player, by far, according to PAR.  His 4.81 August PAR is a full 1.3 points higher than any other Player of the Month has earned this season.  He slugged an insane 18 home runs in August, which is the second highest single month total in league history, trailing only Sammy Sosa's 20 homers in June of 1998.  As outlined above, this has a chance to be a truly historic season for Stanton.  He is firmly in the mix for MVP now as well.  You want to know who has had the second best month this season?  The Mavericks' Manny Machado, who put up 3.9 PAR in August, but somehow didn't come close to winning this monthly honor.

    Not to be overlooked, Corey Kluber also posted the highest monthly PAR we've seen from a pitcher this season, coming in at 4.35.  He was nearly unhittable in the month, leading qualified pitchers in ERA, WHIP, wins (tied) and strikeouts.  He has also inserted himself into the Cy Young conversation, which didn't seem possible a month ago.  Nobody came close to snatching this honor from Kluber, but recently traded Justin Verlander was the runner-up.