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The final part of the 2019 DTBL season preview will cover the three teams projected to be the cream of the crop. Two of the three were among the worst teams in the league a year ago. However, a close examination of their rosters indicates that their struggles in 2018 were not due to a lack of talent. Also, those rosters have been enhanced with some key additions via draft and trade. The third team is less surprising, as they are the defending champions. In the projected standings, there is an eight point gap between these teams and all of the ones covered previously, but only three points separate this trio. In fact, spoiler alert, there is a projected tie for the top spot. If you would like to skip to the bottom to see the full standings projections, be my guest. But here are the three teams projected to be the top championship contenders in 2019.
Nick’s Naturals
Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
- Batting Average – 5th (5th)
- Home Runs – 5th (10th)
- Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
- Runs Scored – 6th (10th)
- Stolen Bases - 2nd (10th)
- Earned Run Average - 2nd (2nd)
- WHIP Ratio - 3rd (3rd)
- Wins – 9th (4th)
- Saves - 2nd (4th)
- Strike Outs - 2nd (2nd)
- Total Batting Points – 4th (10th)
- Total Pitching Points - 3rd (2nd)
- Total Points - 3rd (8th)
Summary:
Last year was a huge disappointment for the Naturals. In this preview series a year ago, they were picked to finish second. Poor performances and injuries knocked them out of contention early though. It is safe to say they were not fielding their most capable lineup down the stretch either, causing them to finish in eighth place, their worst finish since 2008. That allowed them to select Juan Soto with the third pick in the draft, who they immediately traded to the Mavericks for Andrew Benintendi. Benintendi should be one of their best all around players right from the start. He will provide a boost to an offense that was kind of a disaster a year ago, finishing in last place in all of the counting categories. Nolan Arenado and Trea Turner are their top returning hitters. They do not appear to be as deep as the other top offenses in the league, but any improvement over last season will be much welcomed. Some of that improvement could come from a bunch of their young guys who could be breakout candidates, including Yoan Moncado, Victor Robles and Amed Rosario. The Naturals don’t need to be the best offense in the league. But as long as they bounce back to at least the middle of the pack, they should be in good shape. While the ’18 offense was a train wreck, the pitching staff was not. They finished third in pitching points and enter this season with the core of the staff remaining intact. Carlos Carrasco, Noah Syndergaard and James Paxton give them an excellent top of the rotation. The bullpen is one of the league’s best, headlined by Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias. But the main man is Josh Hader, who provided impressive value to the Naturals last year despite not being a closer. With Corey Knebel out for the season, Hader figures to add plenty of saves to his resume as well. One thing that stuck out to me when reviewing the Naturals 2018 roster is how many of their castoffs were coveted by other teams and drafted relatively early. You don’t see that much from a team that finished near the bottom of the standings. It indicates that this team is loaded with talent. A jump from eighth to third place would be pretty impressive, but the pieces are there for it to be a realistic expectation.
Jay’s Jackalope
Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
- Batting Average – 7th (8th)
- Home Runs - 2nd (8th)
- Runs Batted In - 2nd (9th)
- Runs Scored - 3rd (9th)
- Stolen Bases - 3rd (8th)
- Earned Run Average - 7th (8th)
- WHIP Ratio - 9th (8th)
- Wins - 2nd (8th)
- Saves - 3rd (7th)
- Strike Outs - 3rd (7th)
- Total Batting Points - 2nd (9th)
- Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (8th)
- Total Points - 1st-T (10th)
Summary:
While the five place jump projected for the Naturals is impressive, it pales in comparison to the Jackalope forecast. The team that finished dead last in 2018 is now projected to tie for a league championship a year later. If you are scoffing at this possibility, you shouldn’t be. This league has a history of teams bouncing from the bottom to the top in short order. Just last year, the Kings won the championship a season removed from finishing ninth. Also, it has basically been the story of the Jackalope franchise history. They are almost never mediocre. They either contend for the championship or finish near the bottom. After three straight years of the latter, it would seem this season could see them return to the former. The main reason for the optimistic outlook is the difference-making talent they added in the draft. The two players in the draft pool with the highest projected PAR for this season were Ronald Acuna and Adalberto Mondesi. They added both. Acuna was the first pick in the draft and they traded up to grab Mondesi at the end of the first round. Only two players are projected for a higher batting PAR than Mondesi (Mike Trout and Mookie Betts), who combines power with elite speed. Acuna figures to be a five category stud himself. But it isn’t just the newcomers who have impressive projections. Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rendon and Gary Sanchez are all among the best players at their positions. Barring terrible injury luck, this will almost certainly be one of the best hitting teams in the league. Whether or not they can actually contend for the championship will depend on the pitching staff, which was also not very good last year. Gerrit Cole is the staff ace and should be one of the best pitchers in the game again this year. His running mate from a year ago, Luis Severino, is a bit of a wild card this season though as he begins the season on the injured list with a bum shoulder. It is paramount that they get him back sooner than later. Otherwise, they will be counting on guys like Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow to have huge breakout years. Their bullpen should be pretty good, but Wade Davis is the only safe bet to tally big save numbers. The pitching staff should be better than last year, but there is not much room for error. One thing is pretty clear though: 2019 is going to be a much better season for the Jackalope.
Kevin’s Kings
Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
- Batting Average – 8th (9th)
- Home Runs – 4th (4th)
- Runs Batted In - 4th (3rd)
- Runs Scored – 9th (5th)
- Stolen Bases – 5th (5th)
- Earned Run Average - 1st (5th)
- WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)
- Wins – 4th (1st-T)
- Saves – 4th (3rd)
- Strike Outs - 1st (1st)
- Total Batting Points – 6th-T (5th)
- Total Pitching Points - 1st (1st)
- Total Points - 1st-T (1st)
Summary:
It is not surprising to see the defending champion picked to win it all again (in a tie, in this case). However, the 2018 Kings weren’t your typical champions. They won the league in large part because they had historically good seasons from three players, built what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the first half, but then hung on for dear life as most of the roster struggled badly in the second half of the season. This was not a deep roster. But the Kings do believe the roster will be better from top to bottom this season. The projections point towards similar results as last year: a mediocre offense and the best pitching staff in the league. On the pitching front, it was all Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander a year ago. The rest of the rotation was kind of a disaster and the bullpen wasn’t great either. Their first place ranking in pitching points was a testament to just how good Scherzer and Verlander were. They return this year, of course, but are obviously both another year older. They do have some interesting complementary pieces this time around though. Zack Wheeler and Andrew Heaney were early round draft picks and both should be able to improve upon the non-Scherzer/Verlander parts of the Kings rotation. The bullpen features three closers, at least to start the season, in Sean Doolittle, Will Smith and Arodys Vizcaino. This has a chance to be the league’s best pitching staff again this year. In order to repeat though, the Kings will probably need a better offense than these projections portend. Defending league MVP Mookie Betts is the only Kings hitter on the shortlist of the best players in the league. But there are a handful of under the radar players who could be key contributors this season: Rhys Hoskins, David Dahl, Adam Eaton and Mike Moustakas (I would have had Matt Olson on this list as well had he not broken his hand last week). If enough of these guys can provide at least slightly above average production, the Kings offense should be good enough to contend again. They will likely get a more spirited charge from other teams though, as at least half of the teams in the league could be championship contenders.
Here are the full 2019 projected standings. The three teams covered above appear to be the top championship contenders, but certainly a whole bunch of other teams could make a charge as well and render these numbers meaningless. It should be another fun season!