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Happy Opening Day! For the first time in recent history, all 30 teams were slated to start their seasons on the same day. Unfortunately, weather has already cost us a pair of games today. But we still have 13 games to look forward to this afternoon and evening. Before the season officially launches, let’s bang out a couple more of these 2018 DTBL team previews. As you will see when I post the full standings projections, only 11 points separate the six teams expected to finish between fourth and ninth places, so there isn’t too much of a difference between the pair of teams I’m previewing today and most of those I covered yesterday. Also, it wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see these teams in a pennant race this summer either. The teams projected to finish in fifth and sixth place are somewhat opposites of each other. One figures to have an elite hitting squad with questionable pitching while the other has one of the league’s best pitching staffs supported by hitters with below average projections. Here is a preview of two teams expected to finish in the middle of the standings.
David’s Darkhorses
Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)
- Batting Average – 1st (1st)
- Home Runs – 9th (9th)
- Runs Batted In – 8th (4th)
- Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
- Stolen Bases – 5th (4th)
- Earned Run Average – 7th (10th)
- WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
- Wins – 10th (10th)
- Saves – 4th (5th)
- Strike Outs – 6th (3rd)
- Total Batting Points – 4th-T (2nd)
- Total Pitching Points – 8th (8th)
- Total Points – 6th (5th-T)
Summary:
The Darkhorses had a bit of an odd profile last year, particularly on the pitching side. They finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins, yet were third in strikeouts. They were the first team since 2012 to have an ERA over 4.00. But the impressive strikeout totals indicated that there was some talent on the staff. These projections still don’t love the pitching. A couple newcomers to the rotation, Jose Berrios and Aaron Sanchez, should fuel some optimism though. Sanchez is particularly interesting coming off an injury riddled season. He was the third overall pick in the draft just a year ago. Jacob deGrom remains the ace of the staff and Carlos Martinez fits nicely into the #2 slot. Brad Hand, Archie Bradley and Chris Devenski are newcomers to the bullpen, joining Corey Knebel to make up an impressive group of power arms. They may not have elite save numbers, but these guys will help prop up the Darkhorses strikeout numbers. The strength of the roster remains the offense. The core of the lineup is essentially the same as last year. Bryce Harper appears primed to have a MVP caliber season as he heads into free agency. Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain are now playing in homer friendly Milwaukee. George Springer helps round out quite possibly the best outfield in the league. The infield is pretty darn good too with Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy and Alex Bregman. One key player who was a little disappointing a year ago is Xander Bogaerts. Expect much better numbers from him this season. The pieces are definitely in place for the Darkhorses to be a championship contender. How much improvement they get out of their rotation will be the determining factor.
Mike’s Moonshiners
Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)
- Batting Average – 10th (10th)
- Home Runs – 4th (7th)
- Runs Batted In – 6th (8th)
- Runs Scored – 9th (10th)
- Stolen Bases – 8th (8th)
- Earned Run Average – 3rd (2nd)
- WHIP Ratio – 3rd (2nd)
- Wins – 1st (3rd)
- Saves – 3rd (1st)
- Strike Outs – 7th (6th)
- Total Batting Points – 9th (9th)
- Total Pitching Points - 2nd (2nd)
- Total Points – 5th (5th-T)
Summary:
According to these prognostications, no team looks more similar to the 2017 version of themselves than the Moonshiners. Almost across the board, they are expected to finish close to where they were a year ago. This means they once again have a below average hitting squad paired with one of the best pitching staffs in the league. Brian Dozier and Khris Davis are the lone Moonshiners with batting PAR projections over 4.0. They were their top two hitters a year ago as well. But this doesn’t mean improvements haven’t been made. All three of their top draft picks could give this offense a big boost: Rafael Devers, Ian Happ and Paul DeJong. Another guy to watch is Gregory Polanco who never really got on track last year after coming over in a trade with the Kings. Jake Lamb and Miguel Sano make up a formidable duo at the keystone corner. Batting average looks like the Moonshiners worst category. They are slated to finish nearly 10 points behind the next worst team. The pitching staff remains strong. Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Dallas Keuchel and Jeff Samardzija all receive PAR projections over 4.0 and the fifth holdover, Kyle Hendricks, is perennially underrated. Edwin Diaz, Roberto Osuna and Brandon Morrow give the Moonshiners three elite closers and a decent shot at leading the league in saves again this year. This is as deep of a pitching staff as any in the league. Last year was a nice step forward for the Moonshiners as they finished above seventh place for the first time since 2012. They are no doubt setting their sights higher this season. If their top hitting additions can outperform these projections, a reasonable possibility, they could be in the hunt for their first league championship.