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Category: Moonshiners

  • 2026 Season Preview: Part IV

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    We’ve reached the final installment of the 2026 DTBL season preview. I doubt too many of you are surprised by the teams that made it into this section, but perhaps you will be surprised by the order and the margin. In fact, the team projected to finish in first place may have deserved its own article since the team that slots in second is considerably closer to the few teams below it in the projected standings. Feel free to jump to the bottom of the post if you want to take a glance at the full projected standings.

    It’s so early in the season that it would be silly to draw any significant conclusions. However, both of these teams are off to good starts, and in ways that could spell trouble for the rest of the league if they continue. Here are the teams projected to finish in the top two positions in this year’s standings.

    Marc’s Mavericks

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (4th)
    • Home Runs – 1st (1st)
    • Runs Batted In – 1st (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 2nd (1st)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio – 5th (1st)
    • Wins – 4th (5th-T)
    • Saves – 9th (8th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd-T (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (4th)
    • Total Points – 2nd (1st)

    Summary:

    Despite what these numbers say, I would think most would consider the Mavericks the favorites to win their third straight championship. One reason to throw some doubt into these projections is that the Mavericks pitching numbers are probably under cooked a bit because they completed the draft with just three relief pitchers on the roster and therefore starters are overrepresented here compared to the other teams. On a per inning basis, relievers generally outperform starters in every category except wins. That said, that certainly doesn’t explain the full margin they find themselves behind the Moonshiners here. Most of the drop from last year’s point total to these projected totals is on the batting side where there may actually be a couple chinks in the armor in the categories of batting average and stolen bases. But overall, it is still hard to imagine there being a better offensive team than the Mavericks. Three of the top four players in projected Batting PAR are on this roster: Bobby Witt Jr, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. With Judge and Soto, they almost certainly still have the best outfield in the league despite Jazz Chisholm moving back to the infield this season. Mike Trout is off to a great start this season. As is first round pick Ian Happ. And don’t forget Jarren Duran who might be better than the best outfielder on several other teams. The infield isn’t quite as strong, but Chisholm helps make it anything but a weakness. He joins returning middle infielders Witt, Ozzie Albies and Willy Adames. Vinny Pasquantino and Manny Machado continue to anchor the corners. At catcher, William Contreras has become one of the best hitting catchers in the game. The stability up and down the lineup allowed the Mavericks to take some swings later in the draft at some young hitters who short term hurt these projections, but may not even be needed unless they are exceeding expectations. That group is higlighted by Jac Caglianone and Bryce Eldridge. The Mavericks are basically running back the same pitching staff that helped them win the title a year ago. It wasn’t the league’s best staff as a whole, but the top trio of Chris Sale, Hunter Brown and World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto are hard to beat. Freddy Peralta is a pretty strong #4 too. Nick Lodolo was tabbed to fill the fifth spot, but is currently on the IL, being replaced by another promising youngster in Cade Horton. The bullpen is probably the weakness of the team. Except for the fact that they may have the best relief pitcher in the game in Mason Miller. He is the only sure thing to rack up saves though. Finishing near the bottom in saves wasn’t a problem for their title hopes last year and probably won’t be this year either. The Mavericks may not be the projected champion here, but they remain the team to beat until proven otherwise.

    Mike’s Moonshiners

    Category – Projected Rank (2025 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 1st (1st)
    • Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (2nd)
    • Runs Scored – 1st (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 1st (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (6th)
    • Wins – 3rd (2nd)
    • Saves – 3rd (6th)
    • Strike Outs – 1st (1st)
    • Total Batting Points – 1st (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 1st (2nd-T)
    • Total Points – 1st (2nd)

    Summary:

    These have to be among the best projections we’ve ever seen for a team that isn’t the defending champion. The Moonshiners gave the Mavericks a run for their money last year, but came up a bit short as they couldn’t match the Mavs’ offensive prowess. These projections show a significant improvement of an already strong squad, but mostly on the pitching side. The Moonshiners offense looks much the same as a year ago. They are not going to steal many bases, but they are very strong in every other facet of the game. Of course, it all starts with Shohei Ohtani, who is projected to lead the league in Batting PAR, almost a point and a half ahead of the Mavericks star trio. He’s joined in the Moonshiners outfield by two other Dodgers: Kyle Tucker and Andy Pages. Of the non-Dodger outfield variety, they return Riley Greene and Brandon Nimmo. On the infield, they can go toe-to-toe with anybody, starting at the corners with Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Junior Caminero and Rafael Devers. Bo Bichette anchors the middle infield with a couple youngsters in Jacob Wilson and second round pick Luke Keaschall. The Moonshiners rebuilt their catching core, which was one glaring weakness a year ago. They added two backstops at very different stages of their careers in youngster Samuel Basallo and veteran J.T. Realmuto. The Moonshiners don’t need to lead the league in batting points as they are projected to do here in order to win the championship. It certainly couldn’t hurt though. Where the Moonshiners stand head and shoulders above the rest is with their pitching staff. The top two finishers for the Cy Young award last year were both Moonshiners and are back for more this season. That’s a pair of southpaws by the names of Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. Perhaps you’ve heard of them. They were the Moonshiners first round picks in each of the past two seasons. That worked out so well, they figured why not try it again? So they selected young righty Nolan McLean this year to add a little more depth to this loaded rotation. And then they added another youngster with great stuff a few rounds later with Cam Schlittler. Plus, Robbie Ray and MacKenzie Gore are still around too. Assuming full health, they will have tough decisions to make each week on which of these six to keep out of the lineup. The bullpen should be excellent as well. Edwin Diaz and Cade Smith provide them with two of the best closers who also add huge value in other categories. Dennis Santana should also help ensure they finish near the top of the league in saves. On paper, this is pretty clearly the best pitching staff in the league. The Moonshiners have what it takes to dethrone the Mavericks. Now let’s see if they can do it and earn their second DTBL championship.

    That brings us to the conclusion of our preview of the 2026 DTBL season. Here are the full projected standings and team totals in the 10 categories:

    This should be a very fun season. We’re just getting started with more changes to come on the website redesign front. I’d still like to write about how that whole project took shape and was executed. But now might not be the time for that as I keep fine tuning things. Please let me know if you encounter any issues or have your own feature requests. In the meantime, good luck this season!

  • Kurtz Kicks off Draft

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    The 2026 DTBL Draft is in the books. I usually write this recap article while the draft is still in progress. Even though that is not the case this time around, I’m going to keep it focused on the first round. There will be time to cover some of the other players taken during the team previews, which will start to roll out soon as we approach Opening Day next week. Going into this year’s draft, it was pretty clear this was not going to match last year in terms of clear cut rising stars occupying the bulk of the first round selections. So it was not surprising that four of the players taken in the first round this year are not new to the DTBL and even one of the newcomers has a few years of MLB experience under his belt.

    The Diamond Dogs got things started by taking one of the few players in this draft who would have been a certain first round pick in any year’s draft. They selected reigning American League Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, whose game power took no time at all acclimating to the big leagues. Kurtz slugged 36 home runs for the Athletics while maintaining an elite .290 batting average as well. This is the first time since 2018 that the first overall pick has been a first baseman. It was the fourth time in five years that the Diamond Dogs have made the first pick in the draft. If Kurtz keeps doing his thing, the Dogs offense could be good enough to make sure a different team gets that opportunity to pick first next year.

    The second pick wasn’t quite as clear cut as the Kurtz selection. The Cougars opted to go with one of last year’s breakout stars, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Perdomo’s disciplined plate approach mixed with excellent speed and newfound power turned him into a complete player in 2025. He hit .290 with 20 homers and 27 stolen bases. What perhaps made this a surprise selection for the Cougars specifically is that the middle infield was already a bit crowded even before the draft started with four of their keepers being second basemen or shortstops. Nonetheless, Perdomo joins Ketel Marte as the cornerstones at those positions moving forward.

    The Jackalope went with youngsters with big upside pretty much throughout this draft, starting with third overall selection Roman Anthony. Anthony entered last season as the consensus top prospect in the game. Like Kurtz, it took very little time for Anthony to show his potential in the big leagues. The five tool outfielder hit .292 with eight home runs before an oblique injury cut his season short. His recent performance in the World Baseball Classic showed that he’s healthy again and already among the best young players in the game. It remains to be seen if the Jackalope youth movement pays immediate dividends. Anthony figures to be a big part of their future regardless of how long it takes to return to contention.

    While this may have been a down year for talent in the draft overall, that was not the case for every position. The league hasn’t seen an influx of top flight catchers in a while. This could be the year that changes. The Komodos selected ’25 National League Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin with the fourth pick. It is the earliest a catcher has been taken in the draft since Gary Sanchez went second overall in 2017. While Baldwin was a prospect of note in the Braves organization, he wasn’t really expected to be a big contributor in 2025 with veteran Sean Murphy leading the Braves catching core. But Baldwin replaced an injured Murphy early in the season and likely took his starting job for good. He hit .274 with 19 homers and 80 RBI, all outstanding numbers for the offensively challenged position of catcher. He will team up with later draft pick Austin Wells to potentially give the Komodos one of the best catching combos in the league.

    The Komodos saw one of their former players go off the board in the pick following their own. The Choppers were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie when they nabbed closer Devin Williams with the fifth pick in the draft. It was definitely a case of picking for need as the Choppers did not bring back a single reliever from their ’25 squad. Williams had established himself as one of the best closers in baseball prior to an injury riddled ’24 season and then a rough 2025 campaign in which he eventually lost his job as the Yankees closer. Now he’s across town with the Mets where he will look to fill Edwin Diaz’s large shoes as their ninth inning stopper. The Choppers went reliever again in the second round taking Daniel Palencia, in hopes of turning this obvious weakness into a strength.

    One of the more interesting players in this year’s draft pool was Ben Rice who has incredible value as long as he remains eligible at catcher in this league. The problem is, that very well could be for this year only depending on how often the Yankees decide to put the slugger behind the dish. He’s far less valuable from a fantasy perspective manning first base. The Kings decided the gamble was worth it for this year anyway, making him the sixth selection of the draft. Rice hit 26 home runs with well above typical catcher numbers in average, runs and RBIs as well. So long as he puts up similar numbers this year, he will give the Kings a huge leg up on most of the league at that position. Whether or not he is one and done at that position in this league is something the Kings will worry about next offseason.

    A second former Komodo went off the board with the seventh pick. The Darkhorses nabbed veteran shortstop Corey Seager who perhaps had lost favor with the Komodos after a string of injury marred seasons. When healthy though, he’s about as reliable of an offensive performer as you can get. The Darkhorses offense is what prevented them from being a serious title contender a year ago. They were particularly weak up the middle. Seager should provide an immediate upgrade at that spot. If he stays healthy this time around, the Darkhorses figure to be in the championship mix all the way to the end.

    Kyle Bradish has a chance to be this year’s Garrett Crochet, a player who has been on the DTBL roster before but retains rookie eligibility due to never seeing an active roster before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2024. I think people forget how good he was prior to that injury. Obviously the Demigods didn’t, as they selected him with the seventh overall pick, making him the first starting pitcher taken in this draft. Bradish is the second straight Oriole taken by the Demigods in the first round, following Jordan Westburg a year ago. Bradish returned from the long rehab process late last season and looked like his old self, throwing 32 dominant innings. Because he never saw time on the active roster with the Jackalope, he enters this season as a strong DTBL Rookie of the Year candidate.

    Another starting pitcher followed Bradish with the Moonshiners selecting young righty Nolan McLean with pick number nine. McLean really flew up prospect rankings last year and had an extremely impressive MLB cup of coffee. He retains MLB rookie eligibility entering this season and is the consensus preseason favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Drafted out of college as a two-way player, it has just been a little over a year since he started focusing solely on pitching. So there is still huge room for growth. As we saw in last night’s WBC Championship Game, he’s not afraid of the biggest of stages, and has the stuff to back it up. This is the third straight year the Moonshiners have used their first pick on a starting pitcher. Good luck to McLean in living up to the standard set by Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.

    The Mavericks really have no weaknesses, so the two time defending champs could go in pretty much whatever direction they wanted with their early draft picks. This time, they opted to pick up a steady veteran outfielder in Ian Happ. Happ joins an outfield that already consisted of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Jarren Duran and Mike Trout. Jazz Chisholm is moving onto the dirt this season though, opening up a spot for another solid outfield contributor. Happ figures to be just that. Going with proven commodities with their first several picks allowed the Mavericks to take some big swings at youngsters later in the draft. If history is any indication, they will probably hit a couple home runs with those picks. The Mavericks remain the team to beat in this league.

    Thanks to everyone for a well paced and well executed draft. We’re less than a week away from Opening Day. Season preview posts will be coming very soon. Stay tuned!

  • Skubal Wins Cy Young Again

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    With the infusion of three DTBL rookie pitchers who immediately became stars, the pool of players who were serious contenders for the Cy Young award became even deeper. However, those guys still have some work to do to topple the gold standard in the league today. Moonshiners lefty Tarik Skubal rode a truly dominant 2024 season to a unanimous Cy Young selection. In his follow up campaign, he nearly replicated his '24 numbers, making him the man to beat again for this award. While it was not unanimous this time thanks to his new teammate, Tarik Skubal is the 2025 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

    It is quite remarkable how similar Skubal's 2024 and 2025 seasons were. This year, he led the league with a miniscule 0.89 WHIP and finished second with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts. All three of those numbers were slight improvements over a year ago. His 14.3 Pitching PAR also led the league, but was down a hair from '24 mainly because his win total dropped from 18 to 13 this year. Skubal continues to be an enormous outlier in baseball with his ability to strike out hitters without sacrificing control. He only walked 33 batters, the lowest total in the league among qualified pitchers. His 7.3 K/BB ratio was nearly two points higher than the next best pitcher. In the years for which PAR has been calculated (2005-present), Skubal is just the third pitcher to accumulate 14+ Pitching PAR in consecutive seasons, joining Clayton Kershaw (2014-15) and Justin Verlander (2018-19). Nobody has ever done it three straight years, so that is something for him to shoot for in 2026.

    Skubal's path to the Moonshiners has been well documented at this point. His two years with the team have transformed them into one of the league's top staffs after a few years of inconsistency. The back to back years of first round selections of Skubal and then Garrett Crochet have set them up to dominate the pitching categories for years to come. The Moonshiners ran away from the field in strikeouts this year, whiffing 132 more hitters than any other team. They trailed only the Darkhorses in total pitching points this season on their way to their second consecutive second place finish. Presumably, they will be able to focus their attention on the offense in next year's draft unless another pitching gem falls to them again.

    Skubal did not quite repeat as a unanimous selection for the Cy Young award. He received nine of ten first place votes, plus a second, for 97 out of a possible 100 voting points. The only first place vote he didn't receive went to his Moonshiners teammate Crochet. The 2025 DTBL Rookie of the Year probably would have doubled up with the Cy Young award as well if Skubal didn't exist. Crochet led the league in strikeouts and was just 1/2 point behind Skubal in PAR. In addition to the single first place vote, Crochet also garnered seven second place tallies and a pair of thirds for a total of 69 points. This is the first time teammates have finished 1-2 in Cy Young voting since Choppers hurlers Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer topped the 2020 vote. Behind them is another DTBL rookie, Cougars fireballer Paul Skenes. It is kind of shocking that a pitcher with a league leading ERA under 2 (1.97) would not receive a single first place vote for Cy Young. However, the competition for this award was incredibly stiff. Skenes got a pair of second place votes and seven thirds to comfortably finish third with 52 points. This year's National League Cy Young winner figures to have plenty of future opportunities to win the award in the DTBL. There was a bit of a gap after those top three. The fourth place finisher is one of this season's breakout stars. Choppers righty Bryan Woo emerged as the ace of a loaded Mariners staff. The sixth round pick from '24 has already soared past expectations for a mid-round selection. He appeared on eight of ten ballots and finished with 21 points. Rounding out the top five is veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi, who wasn't even on an active roster until May. The Diamond Dogs picked him up a quarter of the way into the season and all he did was shove. His 1.73 ERA easily would have led the league, except he was 20 innings shy of qualifying due to his late start. He still managed to accumulate 11 Pitching PAR in 3/4 of a season. Eovaldi accumulated eight total points in this vote. The depth of pitching in the league was quite impressive this year as many others outside of the top five had strong cases as well. In total, 11 different pitchers received at least one vote.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    Two awards down, two awards won by the Moonshiners.  With Shohei Ohtani looming, can they make it three for three with tomorrow's Most Valuable Player announcement?  The reigning MVP has some pretty stiff competition to win the award again this year.

  • Crochet Sparkles in Delayed Debut

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    2025 was the year of the DTBL rookie pitcher.  Three of them were selected in the first round of the draft, including the first overall pick.  And all three of those pitchers had monster debut seasons in this league.  Paul Skenes lived up to the hype and then some as the first pick of the draft by the Cougars.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto was probably the biggest steal of the draft with the last pick of the first round by the defending champion Mavericks.  One pick before him, the Moonshiners selected Garrett Crochet who was on a DTBL roster three years ago, but did not make an appearance on an active roster, preserving his rookie eligibility.  Three years later, the hard throwing southpaw is the 2025 DTBL Rookie of the Year.

    Crochet took one of the more unique paths to winning the DTBL Rookie of the Year award you will ever see.  He made his MLB debut with the White Sox in the covid shortened 2020 season just three months after being drafted and having never pitched in a minor league game because of the pandemic.  He then spent the 2021 season in the bullpen for the Sox before being added to the DTBL roster as a relief pitcher in 2022.  The Jackalope selected him in the seventh round in '22.  Unfortunately, he blew out his elbow that spring not long after being drafted and missed the entire season following Tommy John surgery.  When he returned to action, he was nothing more than a mid-leverage reliever for the Sox until they took a chance and moved him into the rotation in 2024.  That was a smashing success, despite playing for one of the worst teams in baseball history.  Following that season, he was traded to Boston and reinstated to the DTBL roster as a starting pitcher.  4 1/2 years after making his MLB debut, the Moonshiners selected him with the ninth pick in the 2025 Draft.

    As well as Crochet's first go-round as a starting pitcher went in 2024, his follow up campaign in Boston was even better.  He led the league with 255 strikeouts, the second highest total ever by a Moonshiner, trailing only Kerry Wood in 2003.  He finished second in the league with 18 wins and was also among the league's best in ERA (2.59) and WHIP (1.03).  Perhaps most impressively, he threw the second most innings of any pitcher in the league with 205, almost 60 more than his previous career high the year prior.  His 13.7 Pitching PAR trailed only his fellow left handed Moonshiners teammate Tarik Skubal.  Skubal and Crochet give the Moonshiners an embarrassment of riches in their rotation as probably the two best southpaws in the game right now.  They were largely responsible for keeping the Moonshiners in the championship race until the end, finishing in second place when it was all said and done.  Both of those guys will be among the top contenders for the Cy Young award as well.

    The Rookie of the Year vote always figured to be a tight race between Crochet and Skenes, in particular.  Crochet had a slight edge over Skenes in PAR, primarily thanks to his advantage in wins and strikeouts.  However, it remained to be seen if some might give Skenes the nod due to his superior ratios, and maybe some would hold Crochet's rookie eligibility technicality against him.  Not many did.  Crochet garnered eight of the ten first place votes plus a pair of seconds to finish with 94 points.  Skenes received the other two first place votes and eight seconds for a total of 76 points.  So this pair was 1-2 on all ten ballots.  The Cougars young ace led the league with a 1.97 ERA in his DTBL debut, while also accumulating a WHIP under 1 (0.95) and 216 strikeouts.  The NL Cy Young award winner should be a candidate for that award in this league too, however it probably doesn't bode well for him relative to Crochet with the results of this ROY vote.  The third place finisher was the other part of the trio of first round pitchers in this year's draft.  Yamamoto was a big reason why the Mavericks were able to win their second straight DTBL title.  He was one of three Mavericks pitchers to put up a 10+ Pitching PAR season.  That was all before becoming the Dodgers World Series hero.  With Clayton Kershaw now gone, Yamamoto figures to fill his void as the Dodgers star in the Mavericks rotation for years to come.  He received seven third place votes and was the only player besides Crochet and Skenes to appear on all ten ballots, finishing with 40 points.  The top finishing position player is Jackalope outfielder Jackson Chourio, picked second in the draft.  Chourio led all DTBL rookies with 5.1 Batting PAR, while showcasing power and speed with a matching 21 in the home run and stolen base columns.  He garnered three third place votes and 31 total points.  Rounding out the top five is another first round pick from this year's draft, Komodos outfielder James Wood.  Wood looked like a strong candidate to win this award around mid-season.  However, he had a rough second half, marred by contact issues.  It should still go down as a very successful debut for the 23 year old slugger.  He led all rookies with 31 homers.  His 17 voting points put him fifth in this tally.  So half of the players drafted in the first round in March wound up finishing in the top five of the DTBL Rookie of the Year vote.  A lot of teams are no doubt happy with their selections not only for what they provided this year, but their bright futures as well.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    Sorry I am a bit tardy with these award announcements.  I wanted to get it started last weekend, but ultimately decided to hold it for this week when I have considerably more free time.  I intend to announce the Cy Young award winner tomorrow and then the Most Valuable Player on Wednesday.  The Cy Young race figures to involve several of the names mentioned in this article.  We'll see who came out on top soon.

  • 2025 Season Preview: Part III

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    The first weekend of the 2025 MLB season has come to an end.  Early indications are the Yankees might torpedo the record book if they keep up their current home run pace.  Nothing like an equipment controversy to get the season started!

    This brings us to the final installment of our 2025 DTBL season preview series.  My cutoff decision for which teams will be covered in which sections is generally determined by grouping teams that are all expected to finish closely bunched in the standings.  That was true of both of the first two parts this year.  That is not exactly the case for this last one though.  The team that is projected to win the league this year has no peer according to these rankings.  They would have deserved their own article if my grouping rule was strictly enforced.  That's not to say these other two teams don't look strong in their own right though.  This final group contains last year's top two teams joined by what would be the team with the biggest jump in the standings this year if these numbers turn out correct.  These are the teams projected to finish in the top three spots in the standings.

     

    David's Darkhorses

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 4th (4th)

    • Home Runs - 9th (10th)

    • Runs Batted In - 8th (10th)

    • Runs Scored - 9th (9th)

    • Stolen Bases - 9th (3rd)

    • Earned Run Average - 1st (7th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 1st (8th)

    • Wins - 4th (5th-T)

    • Saves - 1st (2nd)

    • Strike Outs - 2nd (7th)

    • Total Batting Points - 9th (7th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 1st (7th)

    • Total Points - 3rd (8th)

    Summary:

    Here we have the biggest movers relative to their 2024 finish in this preview series.  It makes some sense because last year was a bit of an aberration for the Darkhorses who fell to eighth place a year after finishing a close second.  Their fall can almost entirely be pinned on being without arguably their best two starting pitchers and best relief pitcher for almost the entire season.  These projections show them returning to their prior spot as the top pitching staff in the league.  Whether or not you believe such a turnaround is possible depends on the belief in Spencer Strider, Jacob deGrom and Felix Bautista returning to their pre-injury form and doing it for most of the season.  Logan Webb, Hunter Greene and Sonny Gray join Strider and deGrom to make up what projects to be the best rotation in the league.  But it remains to be seen if Strider and deGrom will be able to recapture their prior stuff and remain healthy throughout the season.  Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff were nice insurance adds in the draft, though the latter is also coming back from his own major injury.  The Darkhorses managed to finish second in the league in saves last year even without Bautista.  So having him back in the mix along with Andres Munoz, Robert Suarez, Chris Martin and maybe even Calvin Faucher make them the favorites to lead the way in saves this year.  Unless injuries ravage the Darkhorses again, the pitching staff is too good for them to finish near the bottom of the standings again this year.  Whether or not they can contend for a title will depend on if the offense is able to take a big step forward.  Interestingly, the Darkhorses have an overall third place projection despite also having one of the poorest batting point projections in the league.  That's because only two players are projected for Batting PAR totals over 3:  Bryce Harper and third overall draft pick Jackson Merrill.  Merrill provides the most hope for an improved offense.  He will supplement a mostly veteran lineup.  In the outfield, Merrill is joined by Christian Yelich, George Springer, Taylor Ward and Cedric Mullins.  The infield is also full of veterans like Harper, Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa.  The infield youth injection is second round pick Jackson Holliday, who had a rough introduction to the big leagues last year.  But at this time a year ago, he was the consensus top prospect in the game, so enormous upside still remains.  Another pre-prime infielder on the roster is shortstop Masyn Winn.  This third place projection does make sense for a talented Darkhorses roster.  Their most likely path to this sort of finish though will require more offensive production because there are just too many health concerns on the pitching front to be confident of them racking up 46 out of 50 possible pitching points.

     

    Mike's Moonshiners

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (5th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (2nd)

    • Runs Batted In - 4th (2nd)

    • Runs Scored - 3rd (3rd)

    • Stolen Bases - 8th (8th)

    • Earned Run Average - 2nd (3rd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (4th)

    • Wins - 2nd (1st-T)

    • Saves - 6th (4th)

    • Strike Outs - 3rd (5th)

    • Total Batting Points - 3rd (3rd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (2nd)

    • Total Points - 2nd (2nd)

    Summary:

    The Moonshiners are the only team projected to finish within shouting distance of the top dog.  They are similarly one of only two teams that are projected to be above average in both batting and pitching points.  Most years a roster like this might even come out on top of such an exercise.  Of course, it would be pretty hard *not* to have an above average offense with Shohei Ohtani on the squad.  He comfortably leads the league in projected Batting PAR at an incredible 10.6, two points higher than any other player.  He's not doing it alone though.  Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr are also among the top hitters in the league.  Ohtani and Tucker are joined in the outfield by a couple underappreciated performers in Ian Happ and Riley Greene.  Guerrero and Rafael Devers will continue to anchor the corner infield spots.  The spring controversy over what position Devers will play shouldn't be too much of an issue for the Moonshiners as long as he keeps hitting.  The middle infield was perhaps a bit if a weakness, so they traded for Bo Bichette to unite him with Guerrero in this league as well as Toronto.  Bichette joins Ezequiel Tovar at shortstop.  Tovar is another guy on this team whose production easily exceeds the hype.  Perhaps the top breakout candidate on the roster is third baseman Junior Caminero who had a nice cameo in the big leagues at the end of last season and is now ready to do it for a full campaign for the first time.  Tarik Skubal was a bit of a one man show in the Moonshiners rotation a year ago.  The Cy Young winner was the only standout performer of the group, but was so dominant that the team finished second in pitching points.  He is the only pitcher who was a member of that rotation for a majority of last season who is back this year.  But now he has some help in the way of first round draft pick Garrett Crochet.  The Red Sox new ace gives the Moonshiners the nastiest pair of left handed pitchers in the league.  A potential third nasty left hander on this staff is MacKenzie Gore who got his season off to a grand start on Thursday.  And of course they added Robbie Ray in the draft too because you just can't have enough nasty lefties.  Kodai Senga was added as well, but last I checked he throws with his right hand.  The Moonshiners bullpen has an interesting mix right now with Tanner Scott and Edwin Diaz likely to keep them afloat in saves.  They added Edwin's brother Alexis Diaz, however he is starting the season on the injured list.  They also return Clay Holmes in a relief slot, while he is now a starting pitcher and Opening Day starter for the Mets, which could provide an avenue for extra strikeouts and wins.  There is a lot to like about this entire roster.  They do not appear to have any of the flaws that plague the teams that have been covered to this point.  However, despite that, they are also quite a ways behind the predicted champions.

     

    Marc's Mavericks

    Category - Projected Rank (2024 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 3rd (1st)

    • Home Runs - 1st (1st)

    • Runs Batted In - 1st (1st)

    • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)

    • Stolen Bases - 3rd (1st-T)

    • Earned Run Average - 5th (2nd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (6th)

    • Wins - 1st (4th)

    • Saves - 5th (8th)

    • Strike Outs - 1st (1st)

    • Total Batting Points - 1st (1st)

    • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (3rd)

    • Total Points - 1st (1st)

    Summary:

    Is anybody actually surprised the Mavericks are the projected champions?  I did them a disservice by never getting around to writing about their incredible title winning squad from a year ago, particularly the historic performance by their offense.  They led the league in all five offensive categories, only falling a stolen base short of achieving the maximum 50 batting points.  The only team to ever accomplish that feat was the 2010 Naturals who actually had to share the championship with the Darkhorses that year.  The 1994 Cougars also had the max batting points, but it was only 30 at the time with just six teams in the league.  By the looks of things, the Mavericks should have a shot at chasing that record again this season.  They are projected to finish atop three batting categories and top three in the others.  As has been the case for quite some time now, the Mavericks have by far the best outfield in the league.  All time great Mike Trout is now quite clearly the fifth best player in this group.  Well ahead of him are perennial MVP candidates Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, last year's breakout star Jarren Duran and Jazz Chisholm who figures to move out of this crowded outfield back to the dirt next year.  If the first weekend of the season is any indication, we're going to be talking about Judge in particular an awful lot this year.  The infield is only weak in comparison to the outfield, not other teams' infields.  Bobby Witt Jr leads the way at shortstop, a MVP candidate in his own right.  Ozzie Albies, Manny Machado and Willy Adames are the other mainstays here.  William Contreras may be the best offensive catcher in the game now.  He's joined behind the plate by newcomer Austin Wells who could be a fantasy stud as well.  It is truly an embarrassment of riches up and down the Mavericks lineup.  The scary thing for the rest of the league is that the pitching staff looks a decent bit better than last year's squad which was already quite good.  They used their first two draft picks on starting pitchers with big upside:  Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Spencer Schwellenbach.  They will join reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale, Pablo Lopez, Hunter Brown and Freddy Peralta.  Not only does this staff have several potential aces, it is also quite deep now.  The bullpen is the only spot on the roster where you could maybe make a case they aren't elite.  Mason Miller is though.  In addition to saves, he could put up a strikeout total that more closely resembles that of a starter with twice as many innings thrown.  He is the only certain closer on the team though.  Liam Hendriks and A.J. Puk are potential wild cards to add on here.  In total, the 87 projected standings points are easily the most ever since I've started doing this over a decade ago and the 15 point gap over all other teams is also unprecedented.  To say the Mavericks are the team to beat this year is an understatement.

     

    That brings us to the conclusion of this consolidated 2025 DTBL season preview series.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

     

    Good luck to all this season.  Let's have another great year!

  • Paul and Jacksons Kick Off Draft

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    The 2024 MLB season saw the infusion of one of the best crop of rookie outfielders in recent memory.  But it was a rookie pitcher who stole the show.  Less than a year after being selected by the Pirates with the first pick in the 2023 Draft, and with just 12 professional starts under his belt, right handed fireballer Paul Skenes made his big league debut in May of 2024.  Two months later, he started the All-Star Game for the National League.  After the conclusion of the season, he was named NL Rookie of the Year, finished third in the NL Cy Young vote and even garnered some MVP votes.  Now, he's been selected first overall in another draft with the Cougars selecting him to start the 2025 DTBL Draft.

    Skenes is the first player to be selected first overall in both the MLB and DTBL drafts since Carlos Correa.  But for Correa, who was selected by the Astros out of high school, those selections were separated by four years (2012 and 2016).  Skenes did it in a 20 month span.  While Skenes probably would have been the favorite to lead off this draft regardless of who was picking, he especially made sense for the Cougars who had a very rough season from their pitchers in 2024, finishing last in total pitching points as well as the categories of ERA and wins, with a ninth place finish in strikeouts.  In comes Skenes who should give them a huge boost in all of those categories.  In just 133 MLB innings, he struck out 170 batters with a miniscule 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  He even won 11 games despite not being allowed to work terribly deep into games to keep his inning count under control.  It is scary to think what he might be capable of he is fully let loose.

    Here is a fun fact for you.  Prior to this year, there had never been a DTBL player with the first name Jackson.  Now all of the sudden, three of the first 13 players selected in this year's draft have that given name and a fourth remains available in the draft pool.  Must have been a popular name choice two decades ago.  With the second pick in the draft, the Jackalope selected Milwaukee outfielder Jackson Chourio.  Chourio made the big league Opening Day roster last year at the ripe age of 20 and made an immediate splash.  He hit .275 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases.  He finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year vote, behind the two players he was sandwiched between in this draft.  The Jackalope will be happy to have Chourio on hand to rebound from last year's ninth place finish that saw them at the bottom of the batting point standings.

    Another Jackson was selected with the third pick.  That would be Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, picked by the Darkhorses.  Like Chourio, Merrill made his MLB debut on Opening Day last year.  He was about a year older though, having turned 21 a couple weeks into the season.  In addition to learning how to handle life in the big leagues, he was also learning a new position.  Merrill was almost exclusively a shortstop during his rise through the minors.  That learning curve did not appear to derail his hitting.  He hit an impressive .292 with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases.  He finished between Skenes and Chourio as the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up.  Now those three will get to duke it out again for DTBL ROY honors.  Merrill provides some youth to a very experienced Darkhorses lineup.  No returning Darkhorses player has quite the same power and speed combo as Merrill.

    While the run of Jacksons ended with pick four, the run of young dynamic outfielders did not.  The Choppers selected Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford with the number four pick.  2023 MLB Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  2025 DTBL Draft:  #1 Skenes, #4 Langford.  Langford was another guy given the opportunity to debut on Opening Day of '24.  However, he missed about a month of time due to injury.  He finished the season quite strong, rebounding from a slow start to his career.  He racked up 16 homers with 19 steals, proving to be another versatile fantasy producer.  The Choppers will look to Langford to pump some life into an offense that has been their downfall in recent years.

    Next comes yet another young outfielder.  With the fifth pick, the Komodos selected Nationals slugger James Wood.  Wood didn't make his debut until July, so his rookie numbers weren't quite as gaudy as those taken ahead of him in this draft.  But he did show off a propensity for hitting the ball hard.  Once he starts hitting more of those balls in the air, the sky is the limit (no pun intended).  He probably has the most raw power of anyone taken in the first round of this draft.  Oh, and despite his hulking 6'7" frame, he can run too.  Wood is a nice fit on a Komodos offense that could be sneaky good.

    How about another outfielder?  With the sixth pick, the Diamond Dogs selected Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle.  Doyle was the first player selected in this draft who didn't make his MLB debut in 2024.  But he is brand new to the DTBL just like the others.  Doyle initially came up as a glove first outfielder.  While he remains an elite defender, he also broke out as a hitter last year, hitting 23 home runs to compliment 30 stolen bases.  The Dogs should benefit from Doyle playing half his games in Denver for the foreseeable future.  However, an encouraging sign is that he hit almost as many homers on the road as at home a year ago (11 vs 12).  Doyle joining Elly De La Cruz and second round pick Brice Turang ought to make the Diamond Dogs the overwhelming favorite to lead the league in steals.

    The outfielder run finally came to an end with pick number seven.  The Demigods used that slot to select third baseman Jordan Westburg.  Westburg was the first non-DTBL rookie off the board.  Interestingly, he actually finished the 2024 DTBL season in the free agent pool after an August release by the Mavericks.  Perhaps his impending move from 2B to 3B scared some teams off from signing him late in the season.  While not a DTBL rookie, Westburg is still quite new to the big leagues with '24 being his first extended run.  He hit .264 with 18 home runs.  As a right handed hitter, he could be one of the prime beneficiaries of the Orioles moving in the fences in left field at Camden Yards.  Most teams would probably value Westburg more if he remained at second base, but the Demigods had a gaping hole at third that he should fill nicely.

    My easily searchable draft records go back as far as 2005.  Since then, on two occasions half of the players selected in the first round were outfielders (2011 and 2021), but never more than that.  Until now.  With the eighth pick in the draft, the Kings selected Dylan Crews, the sixth outfielder to go off the board.  Crews is yet another product of the 2023 MLB Draft, where he was the second overall selection behind his LSU teammate Skenes.  Like all of the other outfielders taken in this first round, Crews can both run and hit for power.  Perhaps he leans a little more towards the speed side than the others though.  He didn't debut with the Nationals until late August last year, but still managed to steal a dozen bases.  The Kings were in desperate need to join in on the outfield fun as they lost Mookie Betts to the infield and only kept one remaining outfielder from last year's squad.  Crews will be a nice first piece towards that outfield rebuild.

    Most years, there is little chance a player with Garrett Crochet's profile would drop all the way to the ninth pick in the draft.  But the way this year's draft order shuffled out, most of the teams in the middle of the round had bigger needs than pitching.  The Moonshiners, on the other hand, only kept three starters from last year and had an obvious need for someone to compliment reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, their first round pick a year ago.  So the Moonshiners being able to grab Crochet at #9 worked out quite nicely for them.  Crochet's first professional season as a starting pitcher was a roaring success.  Had he not been on a strict innings limit in the second half of the season, he may have challenged Skubal for the AL Cy Young award.  He struck out 209 batters in just 146 innings.  And now he's been freed from a god awful White Sox roster and has a chance to be a bonafide ace in Boston.  Crochet remains rookie eligible in the DTBL.  He was drafted by the Jackalope as a reliever in 2022, but tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery before the season started.  He has not been on the league roster the past two years.

    The defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, another pitcher who probably would have been picked earlier in a different year.  This also worked out quite nicely for the Mavericks who already have one of the best offenses in league history coming back.  One of their very few weaknesses a year ago was starting pitching depth.  Now Yamamoto joins Chris Sale and Pablo Lopez to form a trio that should easily keep them near the top of the standings.  Yamamoto was the preseason favorite to win that NL Rookie of the Year award that ultimately went to Skenes.  But injuries limited him to just 90 innings.  Unlike most Japanese pitchers who had come over to MLB before him, Yamamoto is still approaching the prime of his career.  This will be his age 26 season.  There is perhaps some post-hype sleeper potential here.

    So the six outfielder first round was bookended by three starting pitchers.  That means just one infielder and no catchers were selected in the first round, the fewest from that group of five positions in any draft since 2005.  The most comparable year was 2011 when there was also just one infielder selected, but amusingly there were three first round catchers that year.  Not surprisingly, infielders were very prominent in the second and third rounds of this year's draft.  Hopefully we'll be wrapping up the draft around this time next week and Opening Day preparations can begin in earnest.

  • Ohtani Creates 50/50 Club

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    Normally, when you put up a statline of a .322 batting average with 58 home runs and 144 runs batted in, you would be a shoe-in for the league's Most Valuable Player award. But this year, that was not nearly enough for Aaron Judge to win his second DTBL MVP award. Bobby Witt and Jose Ramirez also had seasons that would have won them the award in many other years. In 2024, however, there was another player who had a truly historic season. Shohei Ohtani became the first member of the 50/50 Club. Prior to this year, no DTBL player with at least 50 home runs had stolen as many as 25 bases. Ohtani more than doubled that, finishing with 59 steals to go along with his 54 home runs. The Moonshiners versatile slugger is the 2024 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    Ohtani filled up the league leaderboard this season. His .310 average ranked fifth. He led the league with 144 runs scored. The 54 home runs, 59 stolen bases and 130 runs batted in all ranked second. His 16.4 Batting PAR lapped the field and ranks second in all calculated seasons since 2005, trailing only Ronald Acuna Jr's MVP winning campaign from last year. In both Acuna and Ohtani's situations, the stolen base component of PAR has been wildly inflated the past two seasons since steals have exploded across the league since the introduction of the pitch clock and other rules changes in 2023. However, by any reasonable measure, they were still two of the best seasons this league has ever seen. Ohtani and Judge became the 25th and 26th players in league history to hit the 50 home run plateau. Before Ohtani this year, the highest stolen base total among that group was Alex Rodriguez with just 24 in 2007. On the other side of the equation, there have been 51 players to steal at least 50 bases in a season. The only other player to pair that with more than 30 home runs was Acuna last year. Truly unprecedented stuff from Ohtani this year. I guess he took full advantage of his year off from pitching after his second major elbow surgery last fall.

    When the Moonshiners drafted Ohtani with the fourth pick in the 2019 Draft, what his future would hold in this league was a very open question. While they opted to use him as a hitter in 2019, most believed his future was brightest on the mound. To date, he has only pitched in one fateful game for the Moonshiners before being shut down from pitching for the remainder of the shortened 2020 season. Since then, he has been a mainstay in the Moonshiners lineup and would appear to have far more value at that spot moving forward as well. He has been a DTBL All-Star the past four seasons. 2021 had been the best season of his career prior to this one. In that season, he slugged 46 home runs with 26 steals, but with a much more pedestrian .257 batting average. It earned him a second place finish in that year's MVP vote, behind his Moonshiners teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This year, Ohtani and Guerrero once again teamed up to lead a much improved Moonshiners offense. They finished a distant second place to the Mavericks in the overall standings, which was a nice bounce back after a disappointing 2023. As an aside, that 2019 DTBL Draft is looking like an all-timer in this league's history. Ohtani fell to the fourth pick, but two of the players chosen ahead of him are no slouches either: Acuna and Juan Soto.

    The MVP vote largely came down to how much weight people put into the Batting PAR stat, as Ohtani blew away the competition there. But as I have stated a few times, stolen bases are overvalued in that figure right now. So there was a decent case to be made for other players as well, most notably Mavericks slugger Aaron Judge. In the end, Ohtani received nine of the ten first place votes and ranked second on the other ballot for a total of 97 points. Meanwhile, Judge's historic season in its own right that led to him winning the American League MVP placed him second in this vote. His votes were scattered all over the place though: one first, six seconds, two thirds and a fourth for 65 total points. He will have to wait for another year to win his second league MVP. While Ohtani entered a class of his own in the power/speed departments, Bobby Witt Jr and Jose Ramirez were in pretty impressive territory as well, with both joining the 30/30 Club. Witt, the Mavericks young superstar shortstop, won the batting title with a .332 average to go along with his 32 homers and 31 steals. He and Judge combined to form one of the most impressive offensive teammate partnerships this league has ever seen, and were a major reason why the Mavericks absolutely dominated the league in batting points. Witt received a pair of second place votes and 42 total points. Finishing right behind him is Komodos third baseman Ramirez. Ramirez continues to be the most consistently dominant offensive player in the league. He has hit a minimum of 20 home runs with 20 stolen bases in every season of his DTBL career except for the pandemic shortened 2020 and his rookie year of 2017 when he came up three steals short. This season, he had arguably the best season of his career, tying his career high with 39 home runs and setting a new personal high with 41 steals. Ramirez has been so consistent that he is often overlooked come MVP time. This is the fourth time he has finished in fourth place for the award, and never higher than that. He received one second place vote and 40 total points. There was a pretty big drop-off after those four. Diamond Dogs Rookie of the Year winning Elly De La Cruz rounds out the top five. His impressive rookie campaign earned him fifth place votes on eight of the ten ballots.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    That brings an end to the 2024 DTBL awards announcements.  I do still owe Marc an article to document his dominant championship season, so I intend to do that sometime soon.  I hope you have a great Thanksgiving!

  • Skubal Claims Cy Young

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    As mentioned in the Rookie of the Year article, the 2024 DTBL Draft class was not particularly loaded with can’t miss rookies and prospects.  But Elly De La Cruz wasn’t the only near certain superstar taken in the first round.  The Moonshiners went down a somewhat unconventional path by using the third overall pick on a non-DTBL rookie.  Tarik Skubal debuted for the Kings in 2022 and was having a solid first season in the league before an elbow injury led him to Tommy John surgery, missing the final two months of that season.  Since he was likely to miss most of 2023 as well, he was then removed from the league roster for that campaign.  An impressive return late in ’23 made him a highly coveted player entering this season.  The Moonshiners decision to grab him early paid off in a big way.  Tarik Skubal is the unanimous choice as the 2024 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

    While Skubal had significant prospect pedigree leading up to his MLB debut with the Tigers in 2020, his first couple seasons in the big leagues were fairly pedestrian.  It wasn’t until the fateful 2022 campaign that he really started to put things together.  With a hat tip to modern medical advancements, he has returned from Tommy John surgery as an even better pitcher than he was pre-surgery.  He was the most dominant pitcher in baseball in 2024, by a comfortable margin.  The Moonshiners southpaw led all pitchers with 228 strikeouts, 18 wins and 14.8 Pitching PAR.  His 2.39 ERA ranked second, just .01 point behind Chris Sale.  His 0.92 WHIP was also second in the league, trailing only Logan Gilbert among qualified pitchers.  Few pitchers in recent years have combined such impressive strikeout and walk rates.  Skubal struck out over 30% of the batters he faced while walking fewer than 5%, for a very impressive 6.5 K/BB ratio.

    Skubal was drafted by the Kings in the eighth round  of the 2022 draft.  While not initially expected to be a core piece of that Kings rotation, he did wind up throwing 95 very quality innings for them before succumbing to an elbow injury.  Despite his very successful debut season, the Kings did not seriously consider keeping him since he was expected to miss most of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Perhaps a questionable decision in retrospect, but he was completely dropped from the league roster for that ’23 campaign anyway.  What is not questionable was the Moonshiners decision to pick him in this year’s draft.  He immediately revitalized a pitching staff that struggled to defend their league championship the year prior.  The Moonshiners finished with 37.5 pitching points, their most since 2020.  That figure ranked second in the league this year, with Skubal leading the team in all relevant categories and having more than double the Pitching PAR total of all his teammates.

    Not that he was undeserving of the honor, but it was a tad surprising that Skubal won this award unanimously since there were several other pitchers who had elite seasons.  The top two competitors were a pair of National League pitchers who fought for that league’s Cy Young honor.  We had a slightly different voting result in this league though.  Kings veteran Zack Wheeler had the best season of his impressive career.  He had nearly identical numbers to Skubal in every category except with a slightly worse ERA and WHIP and two fewer wins.  While Skubal received all ten of the first place votes, Wheeler got six of the second place nods and the other four were for third place, totaling 62 points.  Just behind him is Mavericks southpaw Chris Sale, who edged out Wheeler for the NL Cy Young award.  This season, Sale reestablished himself as one of the best pitchers in the league, leading the league with a 2.38 ERA.  While the Mavericks offense stole all the headlines, it was Sale who led the pitching staff to a convincing league championship.  Sale received four second place votes and a total of 56 points, six behind Wheeler.  It is his highest Cy Young finish since placing second in 2017.  As usual, starting pitchers were the favorites among Cy Young voters, but this was truly the year of the reliever.  Choppers closer Emmanuel Clase had one of the best seasons for a reliever in league history.  His 47 saves with an 0.61 ERA and 0.66 WHIP were truly dominant numbers.  His 10.8 Pitching PAR was the best for a reliever in years that have been calculated to date (since 2005).  If a relief pitcher was ever to win the Cy Young award again, this probably would have been the year.  Instead, Clase did not receive any first or second place votes.  His 21 total points comfortably ranked fourth though.  Rounding out the top five is another Choppers pitcher, righty Logan Gibert.  Gilbert led the DTBL with 208 innings pitched and an 0.89 WHIP.  While not really his fault, the fact that he only recorded nine wins probably sabotaged his chances of winning this award.  He has had three straight seasons of elite pitching for the Choppers.  He received 14 points in the Cy Young vote. Interestingly, there were nine players who received Cy Young votes, the same as last year. But not one player on that list was among the group from last year. Complete turnaround among the top pitchers in the league.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    Two unanimous decisions for the DTBL awards so far.  For MVP, there is a clear favorite as well except there were a couple guys who had historically strong seasons, so we’ll see who comes out on top.  Look for the MVP announcement sometime in the next couple days.

  • 2024 Season Preview: Part III

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    Happy Opening Day Eve!  Unfortunately, we aren't going to get a full slate of 15 games tomorrow as originally scheduled since games in New York and Philadelphia have already been postponed to Friday.  But 13 games is still enough to get excited about.  It will be year two of the drastic rule changes that had a major impact on the game a year ago, most notably the pitch clock.  Now that we know what kind of impact those changes had, we pretty much know what to expect from a fantasy perspective now too.  Steals were way up a year ago and figure to level off at a similar total again this year.  A slight boost to hitters as a whole, but not at historic levels.  Just a reversal of recent trends of pitching domination.  However, the game is always changing even when the rules do not.  So we'll see what this season brings.

    We have six more DTBL teams to preview, and these projections show very little separating any of them.  There is just a six standings point gap between the team projected to finish in first place and the two teams pinned to tie for fifth place.  That gap is just two points for the three teams covered in this section.  This includes a pair of teams that consistently find themselves near the top of the standings and a team that is looking for a huge turnaround after an extremely disappointing 2023.  These are the teams project to finish in fourth and a tie for fifth places.

     

    David's Darkhorses

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 6th (8th)

    • Home Runs - 9th (9th)

    • Runs Batted In - 9th (9th)

    • Runs Scored - 5th (5th)

    • Stolen Bases - 1st (1st)

    • Earned Run Average - 4th (1st)

    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (1st)

    • Wins - 3rd (3rd)

    • Saves - 3rd (1st)

    • Strike Outs - 3rd (1st)

    • Total Batting Points - 7th-T (7th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (1st)

    • Total Points - 5th-T (2nd)

    Summary:

    While a majority of the league's teams were involved in a tight race for the '23 title for much of the season, eventually the Darkhorses were the only ones who kept within striking distance of the eventual champion Demigods.  They were able to keep it tight because they had by far the best pitching staff in the league.  Unfortunately for them, their offense just wasn't good enough to win it all.  That was quite surprising because the Darkhorses have almost always been known more for their hitting.  Last year was just the second time since 2010 that they had more pitching points than batting points.  These projections show that trend continuing.  There may be teams with deeper rotations, but Spencer Strider and Logan Webb as a top two is pretty hard to beat.  Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Hunter Greene round out the five they figure to roll with early.  The Darkhorses pitching domination last year was especially impressive since they did it without Jacob deGrom for a majority of the season.  It remains to be seen when deGrom will return to action this year.  They have already proven they can be one of the best staffs in the league without him, so he will be a nice cherry on the top whenever he returns.  The bullpen will be without their top performer from a year ago, Felix Bautista, likely for the full season.  But they do still have four other guys who look like good bets to rack up saves:  Andres Munoz, Kenley Jansen, Jose Leclerc and Robert Suarez.  Since it is probably unrealistic to expect 48 pitching points again the year, the offense is going to need to be better.  One reason to think that is likely is because Bryce Harper should be good to go from Day 1 this year, unlike last year when he was recovering from a UCL tear.  He moves to first base in this league this year, joining a stout infield with Alex Bregman, Xander Bogaerts, Andres Gimenez and first round draft pick Royce Lewis.  J.T. Realmuto had a bit of a disappointing '23 and is a strong bounce back candidate.  Without Harper, the outfield doesn't have the same star power it once did, but they do have a bunch of guys with solid projections in George Springer, Christian Yelich, Lane Thomas and another bounce back candidate, Starling Marte.  This may not be the juggernaut offense the Darkhorses were once known for, but it sure looks like a better squad than what the results said a year ago.  Combine that with their outstanding pitching staff and you've got a team that should contend again this year.

     

    Marc's Mavericks

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 3rd (5th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (1st)

    • Runs Batted In - 4th (1st)

    • Runs Scored - 2nd (4th)

    • Stolen Bases - 7th (7th)

    • Earned Run Average - 6th (10th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 6th (5th)

    • Wins - 5th (1st-T)

    • Saves - 9th (10th)

    • Strike Outs - 1st (3rd)

    • Total Batting Points - 2nd (2nd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 6th (7th)

    • Total Points - 5th-T (3rd-T)

    Summary:

    For the last decade or so, it has pretty much been a lock that the Mavericks would be near the top of these projections because they had Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw and nobody else did.  Now, Kershaw's 15 year run with the Mavs is over (well, I suppose they could pick him up later this summer as he nears a return from shoulder surgery) and Trout is no longer a perennial MVP candidate.  In fact, the Mavericks have six other hitters ahead of Trout's still very respectable 3.7 Batting PAR projection.  They probably do still have the league's best outfield with Trout, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Jazz Chisholm all being players every team would want to have.  Soto joining forces with Judge at Yankee Stadium this year should be particularly dangerous for the rest of the league.  The Mavericks middle infield is also in the discussion for best in the league with Ozzie Albies, Bobby Witt Jr and Willy Adames.  Spencer Torkelson finally started to live up to that MLB first overall draft pick hype in the second half of last season.  He will be rejoined by a now healthy Vinnie Pasquantino at first base.  And veteran third baseman Manny Machado remains in the fold as well.  The catching duo of William Contreras and Gabriel Moreno is pretty solid.  The Mavericks pitching staff had a very peculiar season a year ago.  Not too often do you see a team finish dead last in ERA, but near the top of the league in wins and strikeouts.  These projections show them continuing to be the league's best at inducing whiffs, but leveling off in the other categories.  Basically every pitcher on the roster has elite strikeout stuff.  The rotation will be anchored by Pablo Lopez and Freddy Peralta.  First round pick Bobby Miller will look to replace his Dodger teammate Kershaw.  Hunter Brown should get his first full season in the Astros rotation.  And then there is Chris Sale looking to recapture his old form.  They even nabbed long time Kings ace Max Scherzer to be a mid-season addition once he returns from back surgery.  There are a lot of interesting options for the Mavericks rotation.  The bullpen probably won't add a lot of saves with Alexis Diaz the only guy in a certain closer role.  But Mason Miller, Abner Uribe and Bryan Abreu all have such great stuff that they could be plus contributors just from their gaudy strikeout totals.  There is certainly enough upside in the Mavericks pitching staff to support an excellent offense to make them title contenders once again.

     

    Mike's Moonshiners

    Category - Projected Rank (2023 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 10th (7th)

    • Home Runs - 2nd (7th)

    • Runs Batted In - 3rd (3rd)

    • Runs Scored - 6th (7th)

    • Stolen Bases - 9th (6th)

    • Earned Run Average - 2nd (5th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 1st (9th)

    • Wins - 2nd (8th)

    • Saves - 4th (8th)

    • Strike Outs - 5th (7th)

    • Total Batting Points - 7th-T (6th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 1st (9th)

    • Total Points - 4th (8th)

    Summary:

    Perhaps the Moonshiners made a deal with the devil to finally win their first DTBL title in 2022, because 2023 was a year from hell.  Their offense took a huge step back and the pitching staff completely cratered.  But boy do these projections show that turning back around this season.  The team that finished with the second fewest pitching points a year ago is pegged to lead the league in that metric this season.  That's mainly because the Moonshiners drafted two of the three pitchers with the highest projected PAR among those available in the draft with their first two picks:  Tarik Skubal and Zach Eflin.  They immediately become the top two projected starters for the Moonshiners, closely followed by Jesus Luzardo.  There are several solid veteran options available for the final two rotation spots among Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander and Jose Berrios.  Time will tell, but the early indication is that this Moonshiners rotation makeover should be a success.  The bullpen also gets a big time boost with the return of Edwin Diaz, who missed the entire '23 season.  Clay Holmes and Tanner Scott join him to give the Moonshiners a good shot at being near the top of the league in saves.  It is pretty close to a lock that this team is going to be much improved on the mound.  Whether or not the offense can return to championship form is more of an open question.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Rafael Devers and Max Muncy will once again lock down the corner infield spots.  However, the middle infield and catching positions are huge question marks.  Ezequiel Tovar is the only player at those positions who grades out as at least an average contributor, though J.P. Crawford would also qualify if he proves last year's breakout wasn't a fluke.  The outfield is in much better shape with Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani, who is currently entwined in a gambling scandal.  Riley Greene was having a nice breakout season a year ago before getting hurt.  Daulton Varsho will look to bounce back from a disappointing campaign.  Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Moonshiners rolled the dice on infielder Junior Caminero in the third round of the draft.  He will start the season in the minors.  But he is one of the top prospects in the game, so he could provide a huge boost to this team at some point this year.  With the disappointment of '23 behind them, this looks like a Moonshiners squad primed to return to contender status.

  • Dogs Make Room For EDLC

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    Coming off three straight last place finishes (two under current leadership), the Diamond Dogs obviously had a lot of holes to fill.  However, shortstop wasn’t one of them.  Trea Turner and Bo Bichette have been among the best shortstops in the game for several years now.  Last year, Oneil Cruz appeared poised to join those ranks before a nasty leg injury ended his season soon after it started in April.  With all three of those players back in the fold for this season and the consensus #1 player available in the draft also being a shortstop, the Diamond Dogs had a difficult decision to make.

    A couple days prior to the start of the 2024 DTBL Draft, the Diamond Dogs dealt Bichette to the Kings, opening a spot for them to select Reds dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz with the first pick.  Meanwhile, the Kings filled a spot vacated by a position change and their postseason release of longtime shortstop Carlos Correa.  In addition to clearing room for De La Cruz, the Dogs also acquired the Kings first round pick (7th overall) and catcher Sean Murphy.  The Kings added Bichette and the first pick of the fourth round.  For the Kings, giving up that first rounder for Bichette was a fairly easy call as he is a far safer bet than anyone selected in this entire draft.  While giving up the steady Murphy hurt a bit, they do still have Will Smith behind the plate.  On the other side, the Dogs did not keep a catcher, so Murphy immediately moves into their #1 catcher spot.

    Of course, De La Cruz was the main reason why this trade happened.  Soon after making his debut for the Reds last year, he became the talk of the league, demonstrating his light tower power and blazing speed on a nearly daily basis.  Initially splitting time between shortstop and third base, he would eventually settle in as the Reds everyday shortstop, a position he figures to occupy for the foreseeable future.  By the All-Star break, he was hitting .325 with an .887 OPS and 16 stolen bases.  He did struggle down the stretch though, in the longest season of his professional life.  His batting average finished at .235.  But he did slug 13 home runs and stole 35 bases.  Even if the hit tool is slow to develop and the strikeout problem continues, his raw power and elite speed gives him a pretty high floor and certainly someone who will help a Diamond Dogs team that finished dead last in steals a year ago.  That almost certainly won’t happen again.  Him joining forces with a healthy Oneil Cruz will make the Dogs fun to watch at the very least.

    It would have been difficult to predict how the rest of the first round would play out because De La Cruz really was the only player who felt like a lock to be among the first players off the board.  The Cougars, who finished last in every offensive category except for stolen bases last year, opted to go with the best bat they could find, outfielder Nolan Jones.  Jones had previously seemed to be a bit of a bust as a prospect for Cleveland.  Moving to Colorado was just what the doctor ordered though.  He put up a 20/20 season, exactly 20 home runs and stolen bases, with a .297 average, all while regularly playing in the outfield for the first time in his career.  The Cougars moved on from a couple of their longtime players who remain Rockies, Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant, but now have a much younger Rockie in the fold.  Jones should help them become a more dangerous offensive team.

    Like the Cougars, the Moonshiners more or less drafted for need with the third pick.  But their need was on the mound.  After winning the league title in ’22 with an excellent staff, that same group cratered to just 18 pitching points a year ago.  In comes the only non-DTBL rookie drafted in the first round this year, lefty Tarik Skubal.  Skubal’s actual DTBL rookie campaign with the Kings in ’22 ended abruptly with elbow surgery, which caused the Kings to release him following the season and kept him entirely off the league roster last year.  He returned with a vengeance last summer, throwing even harder than he did pre-surgery.  In 15 starts, he compiled a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, striking out 102 in 80 innings.  Still just 27 years old, he’ll add some youth to an otherwise veteran laden rotation.

    The Komodos went with a little bit younger pitcher in the fourth slot.  They selected Guardians righty Tanner Bibee.  Bibee, who just turned 25 a couple days ago, had a very impressive MLB rookie campaign which placed him second in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.  He won 10 games with a sub 3.00 ERA (2.98).  He struck out 141 hitters in 142 innings.  He appears poised to become Cleveland’s next great pitching development success story.  The Komodos have the makings of a very strong rotation if they can ever get and keep everyone healthy.  Shane McClanahan will likely miss the entire season and it is unclear when Walker Buehler will return after missing all of last year.  Bibee doesn’t need to be the staff ace though as Framber Valdez is still around too.

    The run of pitchers continued with the Choppers going even younger yet, selecting Marlins 20 year old righty Eury Perez at number five.  Perez made his MLB debut last May, just a month after turning 20.  You would think a towering 6’8″ 20 year old pitcher who throws serious gas would be a walk machine.  But Perez actually has quite good command.  He struck out 108 hitters with just 31 walks in his 91 big league innings.  Again, quite impressive for someone that age.  He was a little home run prone, but that is just picking nits at this point.  The Choppers have a rotation full of interesting options now, but it would behoove them if Blake Snell were to sign with a team relatively soon.

    The streak of starting pitchers extended to four when the Jackalope selected Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez with the sixth pick.  The highly touted Rodriguez had a rough introduction to the big leagues which eventually led to him being demoted back to AAA.  But then he returned to Baltimore as a much more confident and effective pitcher.  He had a 7.35 ERA when he was demoted near the end of May and was able to drop that 3 full points to 4.34 by the end of the season.  He had a 2.58 ERA from the All-Star break on.  This is the first time since 2018 that the Jackalope have used a first round pick on a pitcher.

    With the seventh pick, the Diamond Dogs used the pick they acquired from the Kings in the Bichette trade to add another slugger to the lineup.  Marlins third baseman Jake Burger seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the very few bright spots on the White Sox before they dealt him to Miami.  While Burger was a former first round pick of the Sox, it seemed unlikely he would ever reach the majors after blowing out his achilles tendon twice.  Finally given a chance to play nearly every day last year, he slugged 34 home runs while driving in 80, and actually improved his bat to ball skills hitting over .300 after arriving in Miami.  Burger is on the old side for a DTBL rookie.  He will turn 28 shortly after Opening Day.

    After the momentary pause with the Burger selection, it was back to pitchers with the eighth pick.  The Mavericks selected Dodgers righty, and McHenry, Illinois’ own Bobby Miller.  Safe to say this is the highest pick ever of a McHenry County native in DTBL history.  Miller, with his 99 MPH average fastball, posted very impressive numbers in his first MLB season.  In 124 innings, he struck out 119 with a 3.76 ERA.  He won 11 games pitching for one of baseball’s best teams.  Interestingly, he will essentially be replacing a Dodger legend in the Mavericks rotation.  Clayton Kershaw’s illustrious 15 year career with the Mavericks came to and end this offseason.  Julio Urias is another Dodger gone from the Mavs’ rotation, but I would not call his career quite as illustrious.  Miller will look to continue the Dodger domination for the Mavericks.

    Perhaps a bit of a surprise that he fell this far, the Darkhorses nabbed third baseman Royce Lewis with the ninth pick.  A string of injuries is the only thing that prevented Lewis from joining the ranks of the DTBL years ago.  Still just 24 years old though, he should have plenty of great years ahead of him.  Lewis smacked 15 homers with a .309 average in just 217 at bats last season.  And then he added four more home runs in the Postseason.  Initially drafted and developed as a shortstop, Lewis seems to have found a home at the hot corner where he will join Alex Bregman to form an enviable duo at that position for the Darkhorses.

    The first round wrapped up with the Demigods selecting utility player Spencer Steer, officially a first baseman for this season in the DTBL.  While the Reds haven’t found a permanent positional home for Steer, his bat pretty much ensures he’ll be in the lineup most days.  He hit .271 with 23 homers, 86 RBI and 15 steals last season.  The defending champion Demigods continue to have one of the most balanced rosters from top to bottom, so they could have gone any number of ways with this pick.  Steer will fit in nicely at first base this year and wherever he might wind up down the road.

    On the heels of what was one of the most hyped rookie classes in recent history, and then that ’23 class lived up to the hype in year one, this year’s crop has their work cut out for them.  With five exciting young pitchers in the first round mix this year, perhaps we will see a little more balance though.  Time will tell.