Jackalope outfielder Giancarlo Stanton
Every MLB team has a game in the books now. I don’t think we have learned anything we didn’t already know. Good pitching tends to beat good hitting. Pitchers usually have the edge early in the season, especially on the first couple days when the aces are on the hill. Also, Clayton Kershaw and Bryce Harper are pretty good. And as I’m writing this, some guy name Marwin Gonzalez just ended Yu Darvish’s perfect game bid with two outs in the bottom of the 9th. Still, a decent Demigods debut for Mr. Darvish.
Now we’re getting to the heart of these 2013 season projections. The top four contains the defending champions and three other teams that came within an eyelash of winning it all last year. All four of these teams are likely to be in the hunt again this season. Tonight, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish fourth and third place. They happen to be the league’s last two champions.
Nick’s Naturals
Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)
- Batting Average – 1st (4th)
- Home Runs – 8th (4th)
- Runs Batted In – 6th (5th)
- Runs Scored – 3rd (4th)
- Stolen Bases – 9th (9th)
- Earned Run Average – 2nd (1st)
- WHIP Ratio – 1st (2nd)
- Wins – 10th (3rd)
- Saves – 5th (2nd-T)
- Strike Outs – 7th (5th)
- Total Batting Points – 4th-T (5th)
- Total Pitching Points – 4th (2nd)
- Total Points – 4th (1st)
Summary:
I hate to beat a dead horse, but here is yet another example of a team that should easily beat their projections in at least a couple categories, particularly the nearly impossible category to predict: wins. I would be shocked if David Price winds up as the only Naturals pitcher with more than 13 wins, which is the case in these ZiPS projections. Matt Cain, Jordan Zimmerman, Zack Greinke and Price are going to team up for the third fewest wins in the league? I don’t think so. Their staff led them to the championship last year and are a decent bet to do the same this year. What will be more interesting to follow is the progress of their offense. With the obvious exception of Miguel Cabrera, several of the Naturals other top hitters underachieved a year ago. Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Upton should cruise past their ’12 numbers. Andrew McCutchen, a healthy Victor Martinez… this is a very impressive roster. The Naturals hitting was the best in the league in 2011. If they can combine their ’11 offense with their ’12 pitching, they will really be on to something. And they certainly have the talent to do it. Three teams better than this one? We’ll see about that.
Jay’s Jackalope
Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)
- Batting Average – 9th (9th)
- Home Runs – 2nd (6th)
- Runs Batted In – 2nd (6th)
- Runs Scored – 2nd (7th)
- Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (2nd)
- Earned Run Average – 4th (3rd)
- WHIP Ratio – 3rd (1st)
- Wins – 8th (7th)
- Saves – 8th (1st)
- Strike Outs – 5th (1st)
- Total Batting Points – 2nd (7th)
- Total Pitching Points – 6th (1st)
- Total Points – 3rd (5th)
Summary:
The Jackalope were unable to defend their title last year mostly because their offense was a huge disappointment. These projections are encouraging for them in that it appears they should expect to bounce back near the top of the league in most hitting categories. Only by Albert Pujols’ lofty standards would his ’12 season be considered a disappointment, but that it was. Expect him to return to being one of the top fantasy players in the league. Maybe not THE top player though. That honor might belong to Jackalope teammate Ryan Braun. Giancarlo Stanton is vying to join that discussion too, although it will be interesting to see how much he gets to hit with Placido Polanco hitting behind him for the Marlins. The Jackalope have been carried by a nearly unbeatable rotation the last few years. But they may not be quite as strong this year. There are serious concerns about Roy Halladay’s rapidly decreasing velocity. Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee remain two of the most dependable pitchers in the game though. One note on the Jackalope pitching projections. They assumed Aroldis Chapman would be a starter this year. It is debatable whether his return to the bullpen will be a net positive or negative for the Jackalope, but it certainly puts these rankings into question. Regardless, the Jackalope have the hitting and pitching to compete for another title this year.
That leaves two. You know who they are now. But you’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see who are the projected 2013 DTBL champions.