Cougars pitcher Gio Gonzalez
Last year concluded with a frantic five team race for the title on the final day of the season. But just two months prior to that, there were as many as seven teams right in the hunt for the championship. I’m not saying that will happen again this year, but there is precedent for all of the following teams to be championship contenders, even if they don’t significantly exceed their projections. These are the teams that are projected to finish seventh up to fifth place. Actually, the computed standings had two teams tied for sixth place, so I will just review them alphabetically.
Charlie’s Thunder Choppers
Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)
- Batting Average – 10th (6th)
- Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
- Runs Batted In – 7th (8th-T)
- Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
- Stolen Bases – 7th (6th)
- Earned Run Average – 6th (7th)
- WHIP Ratio – 10th (7th)
- Wins – 5th (6th)
- Saves – 2nd (5th-T)
- Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
- Total Batting Points – 8th-T (6th)
- Total Pitching Points – 5th (7th-T)
- Total Points – 6th-T (6th)
Summary:
The Choppers are another team that could be expected to exceed their pitching projections. For the second straight year, they might choose to use a sixth starting pitcher in a RP slot (Alexi Ogando). Ogando isn’t likely to repeat Chris Sale’s ’12 season, but he could give the Choppers a nice win and strike out boost. But they also have four closers on the roster, so they won’t be punting saves by any means. Sale is their only elite starting pitcher, but they have a lot of intriguing guys who are capable of racking up strike outs, in particular. On offense, it appears home runs will be their strength again this year. Newcomer Anthony Rizzo will attempt to pick up the slack early on while Curtis Granderson is on the shelf. Jose Bautista needs to stay healthy this year. B.J. Upton appears to be primed for a huge season, in which case he could give the Choppers a boost in power and speed categories. It has been a while since the Choppers were a serious title contender, but they will have a chance this year if their starting pitching pans out.
Mike’s Moonshiners
Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)
- Batting Average – 6th (1st)
- Home Runs – 6th (7th)
- Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
- Runs Scored – 4th (3rd)
- Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
- Earned Run Average – 5th (2nd)
- WHIP Ratio – 6th (6th)
- Wins - 7th (2nd)
- Saves – 7th (4th)
- Strike Outs – 8th (8th)
- Total Batting Points – 6th (3rd)
- Total Pitching Points – 8th-T (3rd)
- Total Points – 6th-T (4th)
Summary:
And here we have our first appearance from one of the “Big 5″ who chased the title on the final day of the season. This might be the most surprising projection of all. Let’s not forget that the Moonshiners came within 1 1/2 points of winning the title last year and were the league’s most balanced team. They were the only team to accumulate over 30 batting and pitching points. So why the gloomy forecast for this season? Well, they only had one draft pick in the first three rounds this year, so they didn’t have an opportunity to significantly pad their projections with one or two acquisitions. But that doesn’t mean this team won’t contend. The biggest key is for R.A. Dickey to not take an enormous step backwards like he is projected to do. Dickey, Jered Weaver and Yovani Gallardo lead the rotation that will be a bit thin until Brandon Beachy returns from Tommy John surgery. The bullpen only has two definite closers, but first round pick Fernando Rodney is good enough to make sure they aren’t buried in saves. They have solid players across the board on offense, so I just don’t see them finishing in the bottom half of the league in batting points. Prince Fielder, David Wright and Desmond Jennings are three players who I expect to easily exceed their projected numbers. I strongly believe the Moonshiners will contend for their first DTBL title again this year.
Kelly’s Cougars
Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)
- Batting Average – 7th (10th)
- Home Runs – 4th (9th)
- Runs Batted In – 5th (8th-T)
- Runs Scored – 9th (9th)
- Stolen Bases – 10th (3rd)
- Earned Run Average – 3rd (5th)
- WHIP Ratio – 5th (4th)
- Wins - 1st (1st)
- Saves – 6th (9th)
- Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
- Total Batting Points – 8th-T (9th)
- Total Pitching Points – 2nd (5th)
- Total Points – 5th (8th)
Summary:
Now here is a real sleeper candidate. The Cougars have not finished in the top half of the league since 2004. But this definitely looks like a team that is capable of making a big leap forward. The most interesting thing in these projections is the Cougars shift from a speed to a power team. In light of some spring training injuries, I think fourth in home runs is a little unrealistic, but they certainly do have more power on the roster. They will need to overcome early injuries to Mark Teixeira and Brett Lawrie though. Assuming he isn’t out too long, expect a big bounce-back season from Lawrie to help justify his status as the #1 pick in last year’s draft. The pitching staff is very good. I don’t think it is possible for Kris Medlen to repeat his performance as a starter last year, but he won’t need to. Gio Gonzalez, Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright join Medlen as four legitimate aces. 5th place may seem like an awfully optimistic prediction for this team, but I think it is quite possible they will finally make their return to the top half of the standings.
I didn’t get around to doing any previews yesterday, so I’m a day behind schedule. My new goal is two more teams tomorrow (Tuesday) and then the top two championship contenders (according to the projections) on Wednesday. I hope you are enjoying the first full day of baseball!