Kings outfielder Carlos Gonzalez
We’ve reached the final part of the 2014 DTBL season preview. Now it’s time to examine the two teams who are projected to finish at the very top of the standings. This has a familiar ring to it. A year ago, the Mavericks and Kings were projected to finish in the top two spots, with the Mavericks winning the title. How did it turn out? Well, they were the best two teams in the league, but the Kings just barely hung on for a one point victory. So here we are and the Mavericks and Kings are once again projected to be the league’s two best teams. They have been the two consistent title contenders for the past couple years. Not surprisingly, they look like strong contenders again this year. But will they be the league’s two best teams again this season? And who will enter the year as the pre-season favorite? Here are the final projections.
Marc’s Mavericks
Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)
- Batting Average – 6th (7th)
- Home Runs – 2nd (3rd)
- Runs Batted In – 3rd (6th)
- Runs Scored – 1st (2nd)
- Stolen Bases – 4th (6th)
- Earned Run Average – 1st (1st)
- WHIP Ratio – 5th (1st)
- Wins – 8th (4th)
- Saves – 8th (2nd)
- Strike Outs – 4th (1st)
- Total Batting Points – 2nd (5th)
- Total Pitching Points – 5th (1st)
- Total Points – 2nd (2nd)
Summary:
No surprise to see the Mavericks in this spot, but how they are projected to get here is a little peculiar. Last year, the Mavericks had quite possibly the best pitching staff in league history. They broke records in ERA and WHIP on their way to a league high 46 pitching points. Their offense was middle of the pack though. This year, it’s their offense that is projected to be their strength. There is an explanation for this switch, but I’m not sure I’m buying it. Even though Matt Harvey may not pitch this season, their rotation is still unbelievably loaded with Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos and newcomers Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler. They are dealing with some injuries to this rotation right now, but assuming those don’t linger, they are a strong bet to have the league’s best rotation again. The Mavericks have earned a reputation as the team most willing to take chances on young prospects in the draft. This year, they took it to a new level though. Every one of their first six draft picks made their MLB debuts last season. How many of these six players wind up panning out will probably determine their fate because they will be counting on all of them this year. Perhaps for comedy’s sake, they drafted Derek Jeter in the 11th round. He is approximately the same age as their first six picks combined. Anyway, these projections like the offense the Mavericks have assembled. With Mike Trout and company, that makes perfect sense. After a bunch of near misses, the Mavericks are a solid pick to win their first title since 2006.
Kevin’s Kings
Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)
- Batting Average – 1st (3rd)
- Home Runs – 3rd (2nd)
- Runs Batted In – 1st (2nd)
- Runs Scored – 3rd (1st)
- Stolen Bases – 6th (3rd-T)
- Earned Run Average – 6th (5th)
- WHIP Ratio – 6th (3rd)
- Wins – 1st (1st-T)
- Saves – 3rd (9th)
- Strike Outs – 1st (2nd)
- Total Batting Points – 1st (1st)
- Total Pitching Points – 2nd (3rd)
- Total Points – 1st (1st)
Summary:
The defending champs are projected to repeat in 2014. The Kings broke a ten year title drought last season and appear to have the talent necessary to win again. They have a strong roster from top-to-bottom and are slated to once again lead the league in batting points, but with a slightly better pitching staff this year. The main reason for the pitching uptick is the bullpen. They have a good chance to finish much higher in saves, although these projections are assuming Nate Jones will be given the White Sox closer job, which isn’t a sure thing. Shelby Miller will try to fit in with the Tigers trio of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez. Scherzer and Sanchez may have trouble duplicating the career years they had in ’13, but Verlander can certainly do better. On the batting side of things, the Kings have retained the entire core of the group that easily led the league in batting points last year. Plus, they have reacquired several former Kings: Norichika Aoki, Michael Cuddyer and Coco Crisp. Billy Butler will attempt to solidify the one weak spot for the Kings in recent years, first base. Despite having the best offense in the league last year, the Kings did not have a true MVP candidate. That could change this year if Carlos Gonzalez can stay healthy for a full season. It will be interesting to see if the change of scenery has a negative effect on Robinson Cano’s fantasy value. The projections have the Kings winning the league by a healthy 11 points. That seems very unlikely, but a second straight championship is certainly a reasonable expectation.
Here is a table containing the full projected standings and team totals in each of the 10 categories. One thing that sticks out to me is the huge gap between the top five and bottom five teams in batting points. It probably won’t actually turn out this way, but that does indicate quite a delineation between the haves and have-nots in hitting heading into the season. Pitching projections tend to be much less reliable.
So that’s it. I hope you found these previews to be interesting. As I watch the snow fall outside, it is hard to believe tomorrow is Opening Day, but boy am I thankful for that. Happy Opening Day to all of you!