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Happy Opening Day Eve! Yeah, there are already a couple games in the books, but things get started for real tomorrow. I, for one, can not wait! As we move into the top half of the projected standings, we’ve already seen a lot of surprises. This third part of the preview series will cover a pair of teams that are similar in terms of projected strength in 2019, but are otherwise quite different in composition, strengths and weaknesses. Finishing close in the standings wouldn’t be all that strange though, considering they finished last season with identical point totals. I’m leaving three teams for the final part of this series because these projections have those three comfortably ahead of the pair I’m about to cover. Look for that sometime this weekend. In the meantime, here are a couple teams projected to finish near the middle of the pack this season.
Mike’s Moonshiners
Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
- Batting Average – 10th (10th)
- Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
- Runs Batted In - 3rd (6th-T)
- Runs Scored – 7th (8th)
- Stolen Bases – 9th (9th)
- Earned Run Average – 4th (3rd)
- WHIP Ratio - 5th (5th)
- Wins - 6th (6th-T)
- Saves - 1st (1st)
- Strike Outs – 8th (5th)
- Total Batting Points – 8th-T (8th)
- Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (4th)
- Total Points – 5th (6th-T)
Summary:
Perhaps no team looks more like the 2018 version of itself than the Moonshiners. These projections show them gaining a few points in RBIs, dropping a few in strikeouts, but otherwise staying almost exactly the same. There is a pretty solid explanation for that. The core of players who they will be counting on to carry them this season hasn’t changed. Several of their newest additions are future bets, like first round pick Shohei Ohtani, who will moonlight as a hitter this season before likely taking over as their staff ace next year. One alarming issue the Moonshiners have heading into the season is a slew of injuries. Most of those were known before these projections were generated though, so that in and of itself isn’t a reason to doubt the projections. Last year, the Moonshiners obliterated the league record for worst team batting average, hitting just .231, 18 points behind the next worst mark (also the Moonshiners, 2016). They are projected to hit .252 this year, which is still worst in the league, but a huge improvement. For a while now, they have lacked huge star power on the offense. That still appears to be the case as Ohtani has the second highest batting PAR projection on the team, trailing only Khris Davis. But Michael Conforto and Aaron Hicks are two underrated outfielders who could give them a nice boost this season. The pitching staff is basically the same as last year. It is a solid, yet unspectacular group. All five likely members of their Opening Day rotation are above average pitchers: Zack Greinke, German Marquez, Robbie Ray, Kyle Hendricks and Charlie Morton. Marquez was the big surprise of the group last season as he was the first especially valuable Rockies pitcher in quite some time. The bullpen is very good as well, currently projected to lead the league in saves. Edwin Diaz will have a hard time duplicating his 57 saves from a year ago, but is still arguably the best closer in baseball. Roberto Osuna is in the upper echelon as well. The Moonshiners seem to be focused on building a solid core for the future, using early draft picks on payers like Ohtani and Kyle Tucker. But they are in a position to contend should a few guys take big steps forward this season.
Marc’s Mavericks
Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
- Batting Average – 2nd (3rd)
- Home Runs - 1st (1st)
- Runs Batted In - 1st (4th)
- Runs Scored - 2nd (3rd)
- Stolen Bases – 10th (2nd)
- Earned Run Average – 6th (9th)
- WHIP Ratio – 8th (9th)
- Wins – 8th (10th)
- Saves – 10th (6th)
- Strike Outs – 4th (10th)
- Total Batting Points – 1st (2nd)
- Total Pitching Points – 8th (10th)
- Total Points – 4th (6th-T)
Summary:
This section requires a whole assortment of caveats. In fact, I wouldn’t pay much attention to the numbers above if I were you. No team is harder to pin down on expectations for 2019. Last season, the Mavericks pitching staff was absolutely ravaged by injuries. Every one of their key starters missed significant time. What was once the best pitching staff in the league, by far, wound up finishing dead last in pitching points in 2018. In what I assume was an effort to avoid a repeat of that, the Mavericks have loaded their bench with pitching depth. Their post-draft roster consisted of the minimum 14 batters and a league high 14 pitchers. Since these projections take all 28 players into account, it is safe to assume that the pitching projections are hurt with more pitchers diluting the numbers of their best guys. On the flip side, they have far less dilution of the offensive numbers compared to most teams. So the overall point projection for the Mavericks is probably fair. But I’d tack on a handful of pitching points and shave off a few from the batting side of the ledger. One thing is certain: the Mavericks will mash. No team has a larger collection of superstar sluggers. A draft day trade to acquire Juan Soto gives them an envious outfield trio of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge, all of whom could be MVP candidates. The infield isn’t bad either, especially with Manny Machado, Javy Baez and Ozzie Albies up the middle. The only offensive weakness is stolen bases, where they are projected to finish last. The Mavericks fortunes this season will come down to pitching. As previously stated, the have a large stable of pitchers to turn to in the event that their starters can’t stay healthy again. But ideally, they will be able to turn to Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jack Flaherty to easily smash last year’s numbers as well as these projections. The bullpen is not the dominant force it used to be, but with Kenley Jansen and Jose Leclerc, I’d say there is a good chance they won’t finish last in saves as they are projected here. The Mavericks are looking to bounce back from their worst finish since 2011. They have an excellent chance to do that. But trying to use these projections to determine their fate may be a losing cause.