DTBL News

Last year, Marc provided some very interesting team previews based on stats from multiple projection systems.  I have decided to do something similar this year, however, due to time constraints, I only used a single set of projections:  ZiPS.  I’m not an expert on these different projection models, so I have no idea if ZiPS was the best choice, but that’s what I went with.  ZiPS does not do saves projections (or if they do, it isn’t available on FanGraphs), so I used Steamer Projections for that category only.  I could write a very lengthy article on why these stat projections aren’t the greatest for predicting fantasy results, so take all of these projections with several grains of salt.  However, I also don’t like to make enemies by publishing my own predictions, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking.

Here is a brief explanation of my methodology.  I used the projections for all 28 players on each team’s roster to compute team totals in all 10 of the categories we use.  However, I didn’t want to leave it at that since there are a bunch of differences in the composition of the extra five players on each roster.  For example, it would figure that teams with a bench full of hitters would outpace teams with mostly extra pitchers in the offensive counting categories (HR, RBI, R, SB).  So what I decided to do was to multiply the team totals in those four categories by the ratio of 14 over the total number of offensive players on the roster.  Theoretically, this would mean I’m only counting full season stats for 14 players, the regular DTBL batting roster size.  I did this rather than simply subtracting players who figure to spend part/most of the season on the bench because I didn’t want to make any personal predictions on roster moves.  The biggest flaw in doing it this way is that every player contributes to the team projections, even if they aren’t expected to see much playing time.  But I think this is better than adding full season projections for every single player.

My methodology was slightly different for pitchers.  Doing it the same way as I did for hitters would have been slightly problematic because it would cause significant differences between teams with extra starting pitchers vs. teams with only extra relievers.  So instead, I calculated what the average number of innings pitched was for each DTBL team in 2012 (1,239) and assumed each team would come close to that number again this year.  So the ratio used to multiply the counting categories (W, SV, K) was 1,239 divided by the team’s projected innings total.  The biggest flaw here is with teams that plan on using an extra starting pitcher in a RP slot.  It is safe to assume those teams will accumulate more innings, but these projections assume the team IP totals are all the same.  So that is another caveat to consider when diagnosing your team’s projections.

Despite the flaws, I do believe these projections can be useful in identifying relative strengths and weaknesses of each team.  Perhaps I will share the full projections when I finish with the team previews.  In these previews, I will provide the team’s projected ranking in each category as well as the overall predicted order of finish.  Then I will give some of my own thoughts about the team, and perhaps explain some instances where I feel the projections are wrong.  I will go in the reverse order of the predicted standings, doing a few teams each day for the next few days.  So, without further ado, here is the team projected to finish in last place…

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

• Batting Average – 4th (7th)
• Home Runs – 10th (10th)
• Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
• Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
• Stolen Bases – 2nd (10th)
• Earned Run Average – 10th (4th)
• WHIP Ratio – 7th (3rd)
• Wins – 6th (9th)
• Saves – 1st (2nd-T)
• Strike Outs – 9th (6th)
• Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
  
• Total Pitching Points – 8th-T (4th)
  
• Total Points – 10th (9th)

Summary:

Obviously, nobody wants to be last in a projection.  However, despite the 10th place prediction, there are encouraging signs for the Gators.  First, they just completed their best draft in many years, acquiring some very good, young talent with players like Yoenis Cespedes, Will Middlebrooks and Andrelton Simmons.  Next, they are projected to finish with 41 points, which would be an improvement over last season.  They have had the worst offense in the league three years running, but there is a decent chance that streak will stop this year.  Almost all of the offensive players they drafted this year will be upgrades over their counterparts from 2012.  The pitching projections are a little surprising because the Gators had a very underrated staff a year ago.  They still have the deepest stable of closers in the league.  Their rotation is a big question mark, but there is potential to meet or exceed last year’s numbers.  I think this will be a much improved Gators squad, even if the place of finish doesn’t necessarily reflect that.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

• Batting Average – 3rd (2nd)
• Home Runs – 9th (5th)
• Runs Batted In – 8th (4th)
• Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
• Stolen Bases – 1st (7th)
• Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
• WHIP Ratio – 8th (9th)
• Wins – 2nd (8th)
• Saves – 10th (5th-T)
• Strike Outs – 10th (9th)
• Total Batting Points – 4th-T (4th)
  
• Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
  
• Total Points – 9th (7th)

Summary:

Last year, the Demigods championship hopes were sabotaged by a weak pitching staff.  If these projections are to be believed, that could be the case again this year.  However, this is one team where my methodology for computing the pitching stats was harmful because it appears they will use a sixth starting pitcher (Brett Myers), meaning their wins and strike out totals should be higher than projected.  Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto form a pretty solid top three, but the rest of the staff will need to exceed expectations.  They only have one closer, Brandon League, who could lose his job any minute.  So saves appears to be a write off category.  Offensively, the Demigods have a solid squad, but they need to stay a lot healthier than they did last year.  Look for huge seasons out of Matt Kemp, Evan Longoria and Buster Posey.  Freddie Freeman is a major breakout candidate too.  9th place would be a pretty big disappointment considering how much talent is on this roster.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

• Batting Average – 5th (5th)
• Home Runs – 7th (8th)
• Runs Batted In – 9th (7th)
• Runs Scored – 7th (8th)
• Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (8th)
• Earned Run Average – 8th (10th)
• WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
• Wins – 9th (10th)
• Saves – 3rd (10th)
• Strike Outs – 2nd (10th)
• Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
  
• Total Pitching Points – 7th (10th)
  
• Total Points – 8th (10th)

Summary:

It has been two long years since the Darkhorses 4-peat.  Last year in particular, was one long nightmare in which everything that could have possibly gone wrong did.  They nearly set the low water mark for total points and finished dead last in all five pitching categories.  There is no way to go but up from there.  And this team is a safe bet to do just that.  But the injuries are already starting to mount up, starting with the news that Chris Carpenter may never pitch again, which came out not long after our roster cuts were made.  Relief pitchers Ryan Madson and Jonny Venters are also headed to the DL to start the year.  And on offense, Brian McCann and Hanley Ramirez will miss significant time to begin the season.  Their healthy pitchers are mostly high strike out guys who hope to improve their ERA and WHIP numbers.  A strong comeback year for Tim Lincecum would go a long way towards fixing this team.  I’m not sure what to think about the Darkhorses offense, but we saw last year how quickly one young superstar can turn around an entire squad (Mike Trout, Mavericks).  The Darkhorses hope to get a similar boost from Bryce Harper.  He just may be up to the task.  Hopefully, these early injuries won’t bury the Darkhorses before they ever get started, but I think they will certainly improve upon last year’s disaster.

That’s it for tonight.  Tomorrow, I’ll run down at least three more teams and finish things up on Monday and Tuesday.

Enjoy tomorrow night’s MLB opener and have a happy Easter!

This entry was posted on Saturday, March 30th, 2013 at 7:19 pm and is filed under Darkhorses, Demigods, Gators. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.