DTBL News

Author: Kevin

  • 2016 Season Preview: Part III


    We’re now into the third day of games of the 2016 baseball season.  What better time to overreact to small sample sizes?  I’ll try not to do that here.  Hopefully, I’ll be able to finish up the final article tomorrow evening.  In part three of our season preview, we’ll look at three teams that are projected to be above average this season, but just barely.  The numbers show these teams finishing well behind the top two.  But this is where the eventual champion Jackalope were slotted a year ago.  So it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see one or more of these teams in the running for the title down the stretch.  All of these teams have championship aspirations after slightly disappointing 2015 seasons.  One of them is a recent champion while the other two have come very close in recent years and are looking to take the next step this season.  Here are the teams projected to finish in fifth, fourth and third places.

    Nick’s Naturals

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 4th (5th)
    • Home Runs – 5th (7th-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 9th (4th)
    • Runs Scored – 8th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 6th (8th)
    • Earned Run Average – 7th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 5th (8th)
    • Wins – 4th (2nd-T)
    • Saves – 2nd (1st)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (6th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
    • Total Points – 5th (6th)

    Summary:

    You know how everyone talks about the San Francisco Giants and #EvenYearMagic?  Well, they aren’t the only team who has won championships in each of the past three even year seasons (2010, 2012, 2014).  Those also happen to be years in which the Naturals have won DTBL titles.  Last year’s season preview correctly predicted that the Naturals would not come close to defending their title.  But it was a surprisingly mediocre offense that cost them, rather than the pitching staff which appeared to be their weakness.  This year’s projections show more of the same.  They still have one of the most imposing offensive lineups in the league.  Troy Tulowtizki is gone, but Miguel Cabrera, Nolan Arenado, Andrew McCutchen and Joey Votto remain.  Even though we just saw it last year, I have a hard time believing this is a below average offensive team.  The pitching staff looks very strong with Noah Syndergaard joining David Price and Carlos Carrasco at the top of the rotation.  And the bullpen will feature four closers to start the year.  Despite the modest prognostication, another even year championship certainly seems possible for the Naturals.

    Marc’s Mavericks

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
    • Home Runs – 8th-T (1st)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (8th)
    • Stolen Bases – 1st (4th)
    • Earned Run Average – 1st (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 1st (1st)
    • Wins – 5th (6th)
    • Saves – 8th (2nd)
    • Strike Outs – 1st (1st)
    • Total Batting Points – 9th (6th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (1st)
    • Total Points – 4th (2nd)

    Summary:

    The past three years, the Mavericks have been projected to finish either first or second.  That’s basically how things have turned out too.  The Mavs have finished no worse than third the past four years.  But this season marks the tenth anniversary of their last title.  The perennial contender will likely resume that role again this season, although these projections are not quite as optimistic.  They still have the league’s best pitching staff, by far, even though they are not projected to lead the league in pitching points.  That’s only because of wins and saves, the former which is nearly impossible to predict.  They are a solid #1 in the other three pitching categories, giving them plenty of room for error.  Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg continue to be an enviable top three who all would be clear aces on most other teams.  The bullpen is borderline unfair with four of the best relievers in baseball, although Aroldis Chapman will miss time due to a suspension.  They won’t rack up saves since three of them play for the same team, but Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Kenley Jansen will basically assure the Mavericks of winning the strike out category.  The questions are all on offense.  These projections are not kind, but that is largely because they are depending on a ton of young players without proven track records along with several veterans who have had trouble staying healthy in recent years.  They are a pretty good bet to exceed the counting category projections assuming these guys stay on the field.  It won’t be the least bit surprising if the Mavericks are one of the best teams in the league again this year.

    Dom’s Demigods

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 1st (3rd)
    • Home Runs – 8th-T (5th)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 2nd (7th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd (6th)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 4th (7th)
    • Wins – 8th (9th)
    • Saves – 10th (5th)
    • Strike Outs – 4th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points – 3rd (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 6th (8th-T)
    • Total Points – 3rd (5th)

    Summary:

    The Demigods were very close to winning their first championship in 2014 and entered last year with lofty expectations.  Unfortunately for them, their pitching staff was unable to maintain its dominance, causing them to finish a disappointing fifth.  This year, things could be setting up perfectly for them to make another run.  They should finally get a full year out of Jose Fernandez, who along with Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels, certainly have the potential to be the best non-Mavericks rotation.  Remember, just two years ago, they led the league in pitching points.  This group could be just as strong.  However, the bullpen is not great.  Trevor Rosenthal is the only certain closer on the team.  So punting saves may be necessary.  With the bats, they look pretty strong as well.  First round pick Francisco Lindor joins a hitting roster that is very steady from 1 through 14.  Really, their offensive strength is their lack of weak spots.  Buster Posey, Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez are largely underrated superstars.  Perhaps expectations aren’t quite as high this year for the Demigods, but this is a very strong team.  They are by far the most balanced of any of the teams covered so far.  There is a bit of a gap between them and the top two in these projections, but they are also a safe third ahead of the rest of the pack.

  • 2016 Season Preview: Part II


    Parts two and three of the 2016 DTBL season preview will cover six teams slated to finish in the middle of the pack with very little separation.  In particular, the teams projected to finish in fourth through eighth place are bunched within 4 1/2 points of each other.  So it wouldn’t take much for the three teams covered in this article to finish in the top half of the standings.  These teams are projected to finish safely ahead of the bottom two, but would need to significantly surpass these numbers to get into the title race.  There are signs of significant improvement over last year for two of these teams, while the third would be taking a huge step backwards if these prognostications were to come true.  Obviously, teams projected to finish in the bottom half of the standings have some weaknesses, but these three teams also have significant strengths that could carry them to higher places.  Here are the teams projected to finish in eighth, seventh and sixth places.

    David’s Darkhorses

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
    • Home Runs – 7th (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In – 5th (2nd)
    • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd)
    • Stolen Bases – 5th (7th)
    • Earned Run Average – 8th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
    • Wins – 6th (2nd-T)
    • Saves – 9th (9th)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th (2nd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th (7th)
    • Total Points – 8th (3rd)

    Summary:

    Okay, this is a pretty rough looking projection for a team that finished third last year.  But if you look closely at the numbers, the drop-off from a year ago is not that significant.  The 61.5 points they earned last year was more in line with a middle of the pack team most years.  But they are still slated to drop close to 10 points, which would make an eighth place finish pretty disappointing.  On the positive side, the offense looks very strong again.  They didn’t select a hitter until the fourth round of the draft, so this lineup is mostly the same as last year.  If Bryce Harper has another season like the last one, you can probably safely assume these team power projections are on the low side.  Todd Frazier, George Springer and Xander Bogaerts are three other players who seem primed for big years.  The concern is on the mound.  Last year, Jacob deGrom pretty much carried the rotation, but a pair of Carloses have been brought in to help:  Carlos Martinez and Carlos Rodon.  Those guys have huge upside, but modest projections in ERA and WHIP.  The bullpen is definitely a weakness at the moment with Brad Boxberger and Carson Smith hurt.  Jake McGee appears to be the only player on the roster who can be counted on for saves in April.  The Darkhorses absolutely have the talent to contend.  But we’ll have to see if they are able to outperform this iffy pitching forecast.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 5th (6th)
    • Home Runs – 6th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In – 6th (9th)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (9th)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average – 6th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
    • Wins – 3rd (4th)
    • Saves – 5th (8th)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points – 5th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th (4th)
    • Total Points – 7th (9th)

    Summary:

    Although this projection only shows a two place jump, I think the Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the league.  First of all, their ninth place finish was a little misleading due to the tightness of the race to the bottom.  They actually looked like one of the stronger teams in the league early last season.  But a late season collapse sent them spiraling to 9th.  For quite some time now, they have had a very solid pitching staff but have been waiting for the offense to catch up.  Well, that time appears to have arrived.  The Cougars are actually projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points.  But the closeness of these middle teams has them just seventh overall.  The offense is much improved.  Kris Bryant will provide an immediate power boost, joining forces with holdovers Chris Davis and Jose Abreu.  Charlie Blackmon and Michael Brantley are two very underrated players as well.  This should be the best offensive team the Cougars have fielded since 2010.  The pitching staff is largely the same as last year, led by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer.  But the potential for a big boost here would be getting a full season out of Adam Wainwright.  The bullpen looks pretty strong with Cody Allen and David Robertson, but Drew Storen losing the closer gig in Toronto isn’t helpful.  Overall, this is a very solid team.  I’m betting the over on seventh place.

    Kevin’s Kings

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 2nd (8th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd-T (7th-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 4th (5th)
    • Runs Scored – 5th (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases – 2nd (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average – 10th (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 8th (6th)
    • Wins – 10th (10th)
    • Saves – 3rd (3rd)
    • Strike Outs – 9th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 1st (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
    • Total Points – 6th (10th)

    Summary:

    This entire section requires a huge asterisk after news hit last night that A.J. Pollock broke his elbow.  Pollock was easily the Kings best, most irreplaceable offensive player last year.  So these projections showing them leading the league in batting points seems highly unlikely.  Having said that, the Kings still have far more talent than most teams coming off a last place season.  The offense was actually pretty good in 2015, but they were torpedoed by an awful pitching staff.  It looks to be the same story heading into 2016.  Carlos Correa and David Peralta will add to a strong group of returning hitters including Mookie Betts, Robinson Cano and Carlos Gonzalez.  If they are able to get bounce-back seasons out of Jay Bruce and Jonathan LuCroy, they definitely could have one of the best hitting teams in the league, even without Pollock.  The pitching staff, on the other hand, is still a huge problem.  It was basically Max Scherzer and a bunch of stiffs last year.  They are hoping Marcus Stroman can lend a hand and are hopeful for a bounce-back year from Jeff Samardzija.  The bullpen is a strength.  They will enter the season with four closers.  The Kings seem like a safe bet to improve on last year’s disaster.  But if they don’t get several pitchers to take their games to another level, another finish in the bottom half of the standings seems likely.

  • 2016 Season Preview: Part I


    Welcome to the 2016 DTBL season!  Before things get started for real on Sunday, I’m going to kick off my annual season preview articles.  Last year, the Jackalope turned the season into a bit of a snoozer as they basically dominated the league from start to finish.  Surely, that won’t happen again this year, will it?  Which other teams can pose a serious threat to their title defense?  As has been the custom in recent years, I have compiled projected stats for all players currently on DTBL rosters and have used those to create a projection of the league standings.

    Once again, I am using ZiPS as my source for 2016 stat projections for every statistical category except for saves, which I obtained from Steamer.  Please check out this post from three years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections.  I am using the stats for all 28 players who were on each team’s roster at the completion of the draft, even if they are not expected to contribute much this season.  However, the team totals are adjusted to assume a 14 hitter and 9 pitcher roster.  Again, check the link above to see exactly how I’m doing this.

    Before I get started, a quick look back at last year’s projections.  First, the Jackalope dominance was definitely not expected as they were slotted to finish sixth.  But some of the other forecasts were pretty solid, including the projection of an extremely bunched middle of the pack and disappointing seasons for the Kings, Gators and Moonshiners.  No doubt, this year’s projections won’t hit all the marks either, but I still think this provides some value in identifying pre-season strengths and weaknesses of each team.

    I will break this into four sections.  In the past, I’ve gone with three teams in the first two parts and two in the final two.  But I’m switching it up a bit this year.  Not to spoil the full standings, but there is a pretty clear delineation at both the top and bottom of the standings with a pair of teams sticking out on each end and the middle six picked to finish in an extremely tight group.  So I’m going to go 2-3-3-2 this year.  With that, here are the teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings in 2016.

    Mike’s Moonshiners

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 10th (7th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (6th)
    • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 9th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 6th (4th)
    • Wins – 7th (5th)
    • Saves – 6th (10th)
    • Strike Outs – 10th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (6th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 7th (6th)
    • Total Points – 10th (7th)

    Summary:

    At this time last year, the Moonshiners had just swung a couple huge trades to give their pitching staff a much needed boost.  Adding Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez certainly did improve their staff, but not nearly enough to make them a contender.  Meanwhile, their offense wasn’t great either as they limped to a seventh place finish.  Unfortunately, these projections show them taking a huge step in the wrong direction this year, especially on the hitting side.  They are not projected to finish higher than fifth in any category and are slotted dead last in three categories.  The problem, at least on offense, appears to be a lack of players who are expected to post monster numbers.  There are some reasons for optimism though.  Their first two draft picks, Miguel Sano and Michael Conforto, have enormous upside and could easily become their best two offensive players immediately.  On the pitching side, it is hard to imagine a staff led by Greinke, Hernandez and Dallas Keuchel not being at least average.  Also, while the bullpen doesn’t have any huge names, they do currently have four guys slated to be closers.  The  Moonshiners will need to vastly exceed these projections to have a good season, but last place seems a little overly pessimistic for a franchise that has NEVER finished worse than seventh.

    Greg’s Gators

    Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 9th (2nd)
    • Home Runs – 4th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
    • Runs Scored – 9th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 4th (1st)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 10th (9th)
    • Wins – 9th (8th)
    • Saves – 7th (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 8th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th (5th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th-T)
    • Total Points – 9th (8th)

    Summary:

    So the order is switched, but the bottom two of these projections are the same as a year ago.  Despite finishing in eighth place in 2015, the Gators made significant strides, particularly with their bats.  This year, the goal would seem to be to improve the pitching staff.  Steven Matz joins a rotation that badly needs an ace.  These projections don’t show them making the necessary jump on the mound to move up the standings.  But this is familiar territory for the Gators, being projected near the bottom.  Their actual results last year were much better than even their place of finish would indicate.  And there are some positive signs in these projections too, including a big improvement in power.  If Yoenis Cespedes’ second half can carry into the new year, things will really be looking up.  Corey Seager hopes to anchor an improved infield.  Overall, there is a lot to like about the Gators roster.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff has too many question marks for them to project as a contender this year.  At the very least, the Gators aim to finish above the bottom three for the first time since 2010.

  • Elite Rookie Class Arrives


    One of the prevailing storylines of the 2015 baseball season was the infusion of highly touted prospects making their MLB debuts and immediately contributing for their big league clubs.  So it was clear last summer that the 2016 DTBL draft class would be one of the most highly regarded groups we’ve ever seen.  Not surprisingly, those superstars-in-the-making dominated the early part of the 24th Annual DTBL Draft.

    Of the first 14 players selected in the draft, 11 made their MLB debuts during the 2015 season.  One other was classified as a rookie and another has just one full season under his belt.  The one “veteran” of that group is Carlos Martinez, who happens to be just 24 years old .  Martinez was the only first round selection who did not make his MLB debut last season.

    The draft kicked off with a pair of players who arrived in the big leagues with so much hype that it seemed impossible for them to immediately live up to it.  But that they did, on their way to AL and NL Rookie of the Year honors.  With the first pick, the Kings selected shortstop Carlos Correa, making him the third player to have been selected with the first pick of both the DTBL and MLB Drafts (joining Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper).  Correa demonstrated all of his five tools for the Astros last season.  He hit .279 with 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases in four months of action.  He will be asked to anchor a position which suddenly became a weakness for the Kings after a disappointing season from Ian Desmond and off the field troubles for Jose Reyes.  The second pick was no slouch either.  The Cougars selected third baseman Kris Bryant who led all MLB rookies with 26 home runs and 99 runs batted in.  He will give an immediate boost to a Cougars offense which was dead last in the league in batting points last year.

    Correa and Bryant were the presumptive top two picks all along.  But they were hardly the only youngsters with huge upside in this draft.  The Gators took shortstop Corey Seager with the third pick.  Seager, the younger brother of Moonshiners third baseman Kyle, hit a robust .337 with four homers in just 27 games after a September call-up.  He figures to be another key piece to a Gators offense which made great strides a year ago.  The Moonshiners kept the run of potential superstar sluggers going by selecting third baseman Miguel Sano with pick four.  Sano probably has the most raw power of any player in the draft not named Bryant.  He hit 18 home runs in just 279 big league at bats.  His eventual position is still TBD, but his power will play anywhere on the field.

    For the second straight year, no pitchers were selected in the top four picks.  Last year, the Jackalope grabbed the first pitcher, Jake Arrieta, in the sixth slot.  This year, the Naturals hope for a similar payout from the first picher off the board.  They selected Noah Syndergaard at number five.  Syndergaard was a key figure in the Mets pennant winning season.  He struck out 166 in 150 innings along with nine wins, a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  This is the second straight year the Naturals have gone with a pitcher in the first round (Carlos Carrasco).  The Choppers followed by selecting outfielder Kyle Schwarber, another slugger with tons of raw power.  Schwarber slugged 16 homers in just 232 at bats.  If he is able to qualify as a catcher down the road, this could be an absolute steal for the Choppers.  He will begin his DTBL career in the outfield though.

    With the eighth pick, the Darkhorses took the only non-rookie of the round.  Pitcher Carlos Martinez still has immense upside though at the tender age of 24.  The former Maverick struck out over a batter per inning and won ten games in his first full season as a member of the starting rotation.  The Darkhorses were really just a pitcher or two away from being a contender last season, so Martinez should play a big role if they are to close that gap.  Next, the Mavericks picked the third Cubs rookie of the first round, second baseman Addison Russell.  Russell will move over to shortstop a year from now, but provides huge upside at either middle infield position.  Finally, the Jackalope finished the first round by selecting third baseman Maikel Franco.  I’m going to go on the record and call Franco the steal of the first round.  It is not normal for a defending champion to have the opportunity to draft a player of Franco’s caliber with the tenth pick.  He is having a huge spring, which could mean that the 14 home runs and 50 RBI he put up in his partial season in 2015 was just the start of him tapping into his potential.  I was badly hoping Franco would slip to me with the next pick.

    We have not seen the same flurry of in-draft trades as last year, but the Mavericks did complete a pair of deals early on.  First, they were finally able to unload Cody Allen after putting him on the block last summer.  The Cougars acquired Allen in exchange for their second round pick (12th overall).  It is a very interesting trade in that a second round pick seems like quite a haul for a guy who didn’t even have a certain roster spot on his old team.  But if you look at just how weak relief pitching was in this draft class, it absolutely makes sense for the Cougars.  If Allen had been part of this draft, he almost certainly would have been the first reliever selected.  And since there was such a large gap between him and the best available closer, a second round pick sounds about right.  But for the Mavericks, this is obviously a win.  They had little use for Allen with their bullpen full of some of the best relievers in baseball (mostly Yankees).  They used the acquired pick to add another young phenom, outfielder Byron Buxton.

    The second trade involved some huge names who have recently changed MLB teams as well.  The Mavericks shipped outfielder Jayson Heyward to the Naturals for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  At times, Tulo has been one of the most valuable players in baseball.  But his stock has fallen a bit recently due to a long string of injuries and his depature from Colorado.  Toronto is a pretty good place to hit too though, and he is part of the best lineup in baseball.  So he still has huge upside.  As for Heyward, the Cubs made him the biggest offensive free agent acquisition of the winter.  The Naturals expect him to play a key role in their revamped offense.  Both Heyward and Tulowitzki had spent their entire DTBL careers with their previous team.  Heyward was a first round selection of the Mavericks in 2011.  Tulowitzki spent eight great years with the Naturals after they selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft.

    We have reached the two week mark of the draft and have completed eight rounds.  That is a slower pace than recent years, but recent improvement seems to have us on track to complete the draft with plenty of time to spare.  Good luck with the remainder of the draft.  Just 10 days until Opening Day!

  • 2015 PAR Update


    With the great East Coast snowstorm of 2016 having rolled through this past weekend, I found myself with some unexpected free time.  I took some of that time to complete a task that I should have done months ago.  I finally updated the 2015 PAR numbers to be derived from stats including those accumulated during the 2015 season.  As a quick reminder, PAR is built upon five years worth of league-wide data.  During the season, that data comes from the five previously completed seasons.  However, when a season ends, I adjust the numbers to use the recently completed season in place of the numbers from five years prior.  So up until now, the ’15 PAR totals were based on data from 2010-2014.  I have now replaced 2010 with 2015 stats.  Normally, this post-season adjustment has minimal impact on the numbers and certainly wouldn’t be worth its own blog post.  However, there were some interesting outcomes this time around, so I’m going to take this opportunity to chronicle them.

    First, this update caused a slight uptick in cumulative offensive PAR and a similar downswing for pitchers.  Across the league, these adjustments caused the league Batting PAR to increase to 201, up approximately 12 points, while pitchers dropped 11 points to 264.  In a perfect world, both totals would be right around 225, which is the number of points above last place that can be gained in all of the batting and pitching categories.  But as we’ve seen in almost all of the PAR numbers I’ve calculated to date, batters have fallen short of this total while pitchers have far exceeded it.  This is because there has been a consistent decline in offensive numbers over the time period I have examined, with pitchers going the opposite direction.  But we’re finally getting closer to the ideal league totals since the five year window is now almost exclusively seasons in which pitchers dominated.  The reason for the adjusted increase in offense and decline in pitching is because 2015 replaced a 2010 season that was far better for pitchers, meaning the hurdle for earning points above replacement for hitters has gone down while pitchers have a higher obstacle to exceed.

    On an individual player basis, most hitters saw their PAR increase slightly while pitchers dropped a bit.  This was pretty consistent across the board, but a few noticeable changes are worth mentioning.  First, the MVP race became extremely interesting in part because Josh Donaldson and Paul Goldschmidt had nearly identical PAR totals for the Jackalope.  Prior to the update, both players had matching 8.45 PAR, with an ever so slight edge to Goldschmidt when expanding it to the third decimal place.  But now, Donaldson has passed Goldschmidt as the Batting PAR champion, 9.35 to 9.29.  The reason why Donaldson received more of a boost is because stolen bases became a little less valuable in the revised formula, which dinged Goldschmidt a bit.  Of course, league members had already deemed Donaldson more valuable anyway, having named him the league’s MVP this season.  There were a few place swaps down the Batting PAR leaderboard as well, but the top two switch was the most noteworthy.

    On the pitching side, the changes were more consistent.  All of the top pitchers saw their numbers go down by just about the same amount, so there were no changes to the Pitching PAR top 10.  But there was an interesting change when looking at the historical numbers.  Prior to this update, Jake Arrieta’s 16.32 PAR was the highest single season mark in recorded PAR history (2010 to present), just barely edging Justin Verlander’s 16.31 in 2011.  However, Arrieta’s official PAR for 2015 has now dropped to 15.64, which drops him behind Verlander and 2014 Clayton Kershaw.  It is difficult to compare players from different seasons, but PAR is one tool to do so.  Arrieta had one of the best pitching seasons in league history, no matter how you look at it though.  Kershaw and Zack Greinke remain solidly in the top 10 single season Pitching PAR (since ’10) with their ’15 seasons as well.

    Now I will start working on calculating PAR numbers for more past seasons.  2009 will be up next, with a goal of completing every year since 2005 before the start of the upcoming season.  Stay tuned for that.

  • Donaldson Completes Jackalope Sweep


    It seems like 85% of the content I have written for this site this year has focused on the Jackalope. They were the talk of the league in March with their blockbuster trades. Then came a thoroughly dominating championship season in which they picked up individual player honors in almost every month. And now in awards season, they have already claimed both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, thanks to Jake Arrieta. Which brings us to the Most Valuable Player award, an honor which the Jackalope figured to have not one, but two top candidates. Sure enough, those two players finished first and second in the vote. The award goes to one of the players they acquired in that pre-season shake-up. Josh Donaldson is the 2015 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    Donaldson and his Jackalope teammate Paul Goldschmidt finished in a virtual tie atop the Batting PAR leaderboard. So it comes as no surprise that those two led the way in the MVP vote as well. The third baseman, Donaldson, had the edge in home runs, RBI and runs while Goldschmidt bested him in average and stolen bases. Donaldson led the league with 122 runs, came in second in RBI with 123 and finished fifth in home runs with 41. He is the only player in the league to finish in the top five of those three power categories. His .297 average wasn’t too shabby either.

    A breakout star last year in his DTBL rookie campaign, Donaldson proved that ’14 wasn’t a fluke. In fact, he significantly improved upon all of his numbers except stolen bases. The Moonshiners drafted him in the first round a year ago and he rewarded them with an All-Star season, finishing third in the Rookie of the Year vote. He was the key piece moving to the Jackalope in a deal that sent elite pitcher Felix Hernandez to the Moonshiners. The full deal was Donaldson and a fourth round pick for Hernandez and Ian Kennedy. Despite Hernandez having another terrific season, the first year edge clearly goes to the Jackalope in that swap. Donaldson helped lead the league’s best offense to an easy league championship. He was a key part in the team finishing in the top four of every offensive category.

    Goldschmidt had a very strong claim for this award as well, posting great numbers across the board (.321, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 103 R, 21 SB). As mentioned, the two Jackalope stars had virtually identical PAR numbers as well. In the end, it was probably Donaldson’s power edge that garnered him this award. The vote was relatively close, but Donaldson received a majority of the first place votes. He got six first place tallies, two seconds, a third and a fourth for 82 points. Goldschmidt had a pair of first place votes and four each for second and third. He came in second place with 68 points. NL MVP Bryce Harper also received strong consideration. The Darkhorses outfielder received two first place votes as well, but didn’t fair quite as well down ballot, and was left off one ballot completely. He finished with 55 points. Next, Nolan Arenado made sure two of the top four spots would go to third baseman. The Naturals’ slugger came in fourth with 38 points. Those four were head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. The fifth place spot went to a guy who actually didn’t finish higher than fifth on any ballot, but got five votes in that #5 spot. That player is the defending MVP, Mavericks outfielder Mike Trout. Trout has now finished in the top five of the MVP vote in all four of his DTBL seasons.

    Click here to view the full MVP voting results.

    With that, the Jackalope have swept all three of the major post-season awards. I don’t have complete records of the award winners from the league’s first decade to easily reference, but I believe this is the first time a team has won all three awards in the same season. Fitting, considering the 2015 Jackalope were unquestionably one of the best teams in league history.

    So that’s it for a while. I have several plans for the winter, but I’ll keep them to myself for now so that I don’t set any expectations that I will surely fail to live up to. One certainty is that I will continue to retroactively calculate PAR numbers for past seasons. Hopefully, I’ll have numbers going back to at least a decade ago before next season begins.

    Happy Thanksgiving!

  • Arrieta Doubles Up With Cy


    2015 featured three of the greatest seasons by pitchers in league history.  Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw each would have won the Cy Young award with their ’15 numbers almost any other year.  But only one could win the award this year.  In the end, it was the Jackalope breakout star who captured the award to go along with his Rookie of the Year honor, which was announced last night.  Jake Arrieta is the 2015 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

    There isn’t much left to say that I didn’t already cover last night, so let’s recap some of the highlights.  Arrieta led the league in wins with 22, which was three more than any other pitcher.  His minuscule 1.77 ERA and 0.865 WHIP were both second in the league behind Greinke.  He led the league in pitching PAR (16.32), which currently stands as the highest mark ever recorded (2010-present).  As shocking as all of those numbers are, he was not a likely winner of this award as recently as mid-season.  But his second half was simply as good as it gets.  The highlight of that incredible stretch was the no-hitter he threw against the Dodgers in late August.  He won the Pitcher of the Month award in August and nearly did it in September as well.  He earned three Pitcher of the Week honors too.

    I would be remiss if I didn’t give some special mention to the other pair of pitchers who would have won this award almost any other season.  Moonshiners righty Zack Greinke and Mavericks lefty Clayton Kershaw had as strong of seasons on the mound as any pair of MLB teammates you’ll ever see.  The Dodgers duo were huge assets to their DTBL teams as well, but in the end it was the guy on the championship squad who got the award.  Greinke’s 1.66 ERA and 0.844 WHIP both rank third on the all-time DTBL single season lists.  Greg Maddux is the only pitcher who has ever posted a better ERA in a season (1994 and 1995).  Meanwhile, Kershaw blew away the field in strikeouts with 301.  He is the first pitcher to reach the 300 mark since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling both did it 13 years ago.  The two time defending Cy Young winner, Kershaw was unable to make it three in a row, but has now finished in the top three of the vote an incredible five years in a row.  Greinke won the award back in 2009, but this is the first time he even received votes since.  Obviously, this is the first Cy Young for the DTBL rookie Arrieta.

    As expected, this was a very tight vote.  The three aforementioned pitchers received all of the first, second and third place votes.  Arrieta garnered five first place votes on his way to 81 points.  Greinke was just a little shy of that, finishing with 75 points and three first place tallies.  Finally, Kershaw got a pair of first place votes as well and accumulated 64 points.  Needless to say, there was quite a gap after those three.  The Kings’ Max Scherzer looked like a leading candidate for this award in the first half of the season, but an uneven second half dropped him to fourth place with 13 points.  Finally, Moonshiners lefty Dallas Keuchel, who came in second to Arrieta in the Rookie of the Year vote, finished fifth for Cy Young.  Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner and David Price had pretty amazing seasons in their own rights, but didn’t come close to making a major play at this award.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    So the Year of the Jackalope continues with two major awards added to the trophy case.  Will they sweep all three?  The MVP race figures to be extremely tight too, so you’ll have to wait and see.  I probably won’t have time to announce that winner until either Sunday or Monday night, so check back next week.

  • Arrieta Named Top Rookie


    The Jackalope made several huge splashes in March, shaking up their roster with some blockbuster trades. But the transaction they made which most directly translated to them cruising to the DTBL title was selecting Jake Arrieta with the sixth pick in the draft. It was a very strong rookie crop, including the five players picked before Arrieta, but none of them came close to matching his DTBL debut. In an unanimous decision, Jake Arrieta is the 2015 DTBL Rookie of the Year.

    Forget about rookies, Arrieta had one of the best seasons of any pitcher in league history. He led the league in wins with 22, but it is was his eye-popping 1.77 ERA and 0.865 WHIP that put him in very select company. Shockingly, he did not lead the league in either of those categories (second behind Zack Greinke in both), yet he now ranks fifth all-time in single season marks in those categories. His 16.32 PAR is the best ever among seasons I have calculated to date (2010 to present, although I should mention that I will be adjusting the PAR numbers to include league wide stats for ’15 in the near future, so he could lose the top spot back to 2011 Verlander). His 236 strikeouts ranked sixth in the league, but like the rest of his numbers, led the way among rookies. He is going to be a strong contender for the Cy Young award as well, though he faces some pretty stiff competition in that race.

    As mentioned, Arrieta was the sixth player taken in the March draft, but the first pitcher. He followed a first baseman and four outfielders, most of whom had very strong DTBL debuts, but not even close to Arrieta’s level. He immediately became the ace of the Jackalope staff which had just traded away their long-time ace Felix Hernandez. Along with newly acquired Gerrit Cole (trade with Mavericks) and second year Jackalope Sonny Gray, they put together a very young set of hurlers at the top of their rotation. The plan worked to perfection as they jumped ten points in the pitching standings on their way to their second DTBL title. Unless the Jackalope decide to mix things up again next spring, Arrieta, Cole and Gray figure to anchor this rotation for quite some time.

    The vote was unanimous. Arrieta received all ten first place votes. But this was not an indication of a weak class, but rather a reflection of just how great Arrieta was. Two other pitchers had seasons that probably would have earned them this award most years. The Moonshiners made the top free agent acquisition in quite some time when they signed Dallas Keuchel in early April. He finished second in the vote with 56 points, receiving six second place votes, and was the only player besides Arrieta to appear on every ballot. Coming in a distant third was another pitcher who had an incredible rookie campaign, the Darkhorses’ Jacob deGrom. He accumulated 33 points despite finishing no higher than third on any ballot. Arrieta, Keuchel and deGrom are about as strong of a rookie trio of pitchers as the league has ever seen. The top offensive rookie was Cougars first baseman Jose Abreu who received a pair of second place votes and 28 total points. Right behind him was his Cougars teammate, outfielder Charlie Blackmon. Blackmon also received two second place votes and a point total of 26. The rest of the rookies were well behind those five, leaving some players who had very strong debuts nowhere near winning the award.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    I plan to announce the winner of the Cy Young award tomorrow night. Will Arrieta win that one as well, or will it go to one of the Dodgers dynamic duo of Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw? Finally, the MVP award likely won’t be announced until early next wee.

  • Sifting Through the Mediocrity


    Well, this post is about a month overdue.  The World Series is over and we’re already well into awards season, yet I haven’t finished recapping the 2015 DTBL season.  I have a lot of writing to do next week with the awards announcements, so let’s get right to this.

    So far, I’ve reviewed the seasons of the top three finishers and left the other seven for a single article.  The reason for that is simple:  very little separated the bottom seven.  All were in jeopardy of finishing in last place right up to the final days of the season.  In the end, the fourth place Choppers finished just 6 1/2 points ahead of the last place Kings.  That margin is less than what separated the Choppers from third place.  So there were obviously a lot of pretty weak teams in the league this year, which certainly helped the Jackalope cruise to an easy victory.  However, what is really interesting about the bottom seven is that none of them were even close to as poor as usual last place teams.  The Kings finished with 45 1/2 points, which most years would put them closer to the middle of the pack than last place.  In fact, the previous record for most points from a last place finisher was 39 1/2 points for the 2001 Panthers.  While I’m sure none of these seven teams are particularly pleased with the way the 2015 season finished for them, they can take solace that they all have some pretty obvious strengths and aren’t really too far from being title contending teams in the future.

    Let’s start at the top of this tightly packed group.  The Choppers had a pretty rough go of it most of the year, but finished strong to lead this pack.  They finished in fourth place for the second consecutive year.  While they haven’t been in a tight title race in a very long time, they have quietly put together a nice string of above average seasons.  The Mavericks are the only other team to have finished in the top half of the league for three straight seasons now.  The Choppers had a very strong season from their pitching staff, slotting behind only the loaded staffs of the Jackalope and Mavericks in terms of pitching points.  The rotation, led by Chris Sale, went six deep with pitchers who accumulated at least a 4.0 PAR.  No other team had that sort of depth this year.  The offense was a bit of a disappointment, but Jose Bautista and Anthony Rizzo had great years.  Fourth place is a nice finish for this team that looks to be just an offensive player or two away from really making a title run.

    A year ago, the Demigods came very close to earning their first DTBL championship.  Unfortunately for them, they came nowhere near repeating that kind of season in 2015.  The reason is obvious:  their pitching took a huge step backwards.  Losing Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery before the season began proved to be too much to overcome.  Jose Fernandez’s return from the same surgery limited him to just 65 innings.  Not surprisingly, Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto were unable to match their very lofty ’14 numbers.  All told, the Demigods’ 19 pitching points were not even close to what they needed/expected.  The offense was actually really good.  Jose Altuve had another strong campaign and J.D. Martinez wound up being one of the steals of the draft.  Nobody else had eye-popping numbers, but this was a very solid offensive squad from top to bottom.  Had the pitching staff lived up to expectations, this would have been a top three team for sure.

    Things definitely didn’t go as planned for the defending champions.  The Naturals slipped to sixth place, their worst finish since 2008.  Interestingly enough, this is the second straight year that the defending champ fell all the way to sixth place.  For the Naturals sake, hopefully they don’t continue to follow the post-championship dive of the 2013 Kings and fall to dead last next year.  So what went wrong for the Naturals?  Well, for one, Miguel Cabrera just wasn’t himself.  He had a decent year, but not even close to his usual form.  Newly acquired Yasiel Puig was a major disappointment.  And injuries hampered a whole bunch of their key players throughout the year.  That being said, Nolan Arenado emerged as a MVP candidate and Joey Votto was outstanding as well.  On the mound, they had a little trouble with the back-end of the rotation.  David Price and Carlos Carrasco were the bright spots, but the rest of the starters were not great.  On the other hand, the bullpen was very good, leading the league in saves.  Certainly a disappointing year for the Naturals who have been one of the league’s premier franchises in the past decade.  But there is little reason to doubt they could bounce back near the top next year.

    The Moonshiners are nothing if not consistent.  For the third consecutive year, they finished in seventh place.  Obviously, that’s not an ideal spot to establish consistency though.  While the results were the same, the process and team make-up were not.  They completely revamped their squad in March, trading for Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez.  Those two were very productive, especially Greinke who had the best season of his career.  Along with those two, the Moonshiners may have made the best move of the year picking up Dallas Keuchel from free agency in April.  With those three acquisitions, it is hard to believe the Moonshiners weren’t able to improve their final standing.  Unfortunately, that’s about the extent of their players who had great seasons.  Especially troubling was the lack of offensive firepower.  Prince Fielder led the team in batting PAR at 3.4, by far the lowest total for a team leader.  Despite the three previously mentioned pitchers having excellent seasons, the Moonshiners pitching staff was only mediocre since they got very little from anyone besides those three.  They will need strong seasons out of a lot more players next year to get out of this seventh place rut.

    Despite finishing in eighth place, the Gators may have had the most positively surprising offense in the league.  Dee Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes, Nelson Cruz and Starling Marte helped lead the Gators to the fourth most batting points in the league.  This is a franchise that had been one of the worst offensive teams in the league for six straight years.  So this was a huge step in the right direction.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff didn’t move in that same direction, finishing with the same number of pitching points (19) as last year.  Michael Wacha was clearly the staff ace, but there wasn’t much behind him in the rotation.  Unfortunately, this is the fifth straight year the Gators have finished in a bottom three position.  However, this was clearly the best team they have had in that stretch as they finished with their highest point total since 2010.  So there is reason to be optimistic for the Gators’ future.

    If there is one team whose final ranking is not at all indicative of the talent level of the squad, it is the Cougars.  Early on, they looked like a team that could compete for the title.  But a series of late season injuries and performance drop-offs caused them to tumble all the way to a ninth place finish.  Losing Adam Wainwright for most of the season prevented the Cougars from having one of the better pitching staffs in the league.  Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer were fantastic, but they just didn’t have the depth they had hoped for.  But it was their offense that caused the late season free-fall.  Jose Abreu and Charlie Blackmon were drafted to boost the offense, and pretty much lived up to expectations.  But those two along with Chris Davis weren’t enough to keep them afloat.  As mentioned, several key players got hurt late in the season, which pretty much tanked their season.  Again, this is not your typical ninth place team.  The Cougars have the talent of a top half team.

    Finally, we come to the dumpster fire that was the Kings 2015 season.  Just two years ago, the Kings won their fifth DTBL title.  Boy does that feel like a distant memory now.  What’s really shocking about this fall is the way the team flipped the script during this season.  Early on, they were riding Max Scherzer and Shelby Miller to surprisingly having one of the better pitching staffs in the league, but their offense was holding them back.  But then in the second half, the pitching completely fell apart while the offense turned things around to finish in the top half of the league in batting points.  In the end, their pitching was pretty terrible and the main culprit for the last place finish.  Scherzer and Jeurys Familia were the only above average pitchers on the squad.  Offensively, their first two draft picks were very solid:  outfielders Mookie Betts and Gregory Polanco.  A.J. Pollock became an elite player as well.  So there are some reasons to be optimistic about the Kings’ bats.  Also, for the glass half full crowd, this was simply not your typical last place team in terms of points and talent.  Plus they will have the chance to pick first in the deepest draft in league history.  So not all is lost for this proud franchise, but 2015 was a complete disaster.

  • Best of the Rest


    With the Jackalope running away with the title, that left nine other teams who weren’t particularly close to earning the big prize. In fact, only one other team finished the year closer to first place than last place, in terms of points. The Mavericks finished in second place, 19 points behind the Jackalope. Meanwhile, the Darkhorses came in third, but were considerably closer to the last place Kings than the Jackalope. The other seven teams weren’t even in the same area code. We’ll start the season recap of the non-championship teams by focusing on the Mavericks and Darkhorses, the only other teams who weren’t in danger of finishing dead last in the closing days of the season.

    The Mavericks entered the season as the favorites, mostly on the strength of their insanely talented pitching staff. Not surprisingly, they did indeed lead the league in pitching points. They set a league record for team strikeouts, becoming the first staff to exceed 1,400 whiffs (1,415). They also led the league in WHIP (1.08) and had a sub-3.00 ERA (2.98), only the 8th team in league history to do that. So they basically met all pitching expectations. Unfortunately for them, the Jackalope were almost as good, finishing with just three fewer pitching points. That separation wasn’t nearly enough to cover for a Mavericks offense which wound up being a disappointment.

    Despite starting the season a little slow, by his standards, Clayton Kershaw wound up having another amazing season.  He became the first DTBL pitcher to record 300+ strikeouts since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling way back in 2002.  He was actually the only member of the Mavericks’ staff to finish in the top 10 in K’s, which is pretty hard to believe for a record breaking team.  Kershaw didn’t do it all by himself though.  Matt Harvey’s return from Tommy John surgery was a huge success.  Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Martinez were very good too, when healthy.  But the main reason for the Mavericks’ lofty strikeout total was their bullpen.  Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller all recorded 95+ K’s, which is quite an achievement for one reliever on a team, much less three.

    The Mavericks did not get the offensive output they needed to be a true contender this year.  Mike Trout was his usual MVP caliber self.  Manny Machado and Lorenzo Cain had a huge breakout years.  But that is pretty much the extent of Mavericks hitters who exceeded expectations.  Five of their regular players recorded negative PARs.  They just weren’t deep enough offensively to seriously threaten the Jackalope.  Second place is still a very solid finish though.  This is the third time the Mavericks have been the runners-up in the past four seasons.  And their roster is still extremely young and talented, so it seems they will continue to compete for the championship in upcoming years.

    If there is one team besides the Jackalope who should be very happy with their 2015 season, it would be the Darkhorses.  After finishing in the bottom half of the league for four straight years, they vaulted all the way to a third place finish this year.  No, they weren’t particularly close to winning the league.  But they clearly had a better season than all of the teams below them and appear to be headed in the right direction.  In terms of the 2015 results, they were sort of the reverse of the Mavericks.  They had one of the league’s best offenses but didn’t have enough pitching to contend.

    The Darkhorses accumulated 40 batting points, trailing only the Jackalope and nine points clear of all other teams.  They led the league in batting average and finished in the top three in home runs, RBI and runs.  Bryce Harper emerged as quite possibly the best player in the league, finishing in top three in average, home runs and runs.  Edwin Encarnacion, Todd Frazier and Xander Bogaerts were solid contributors too.  George Spring justified the Darkhorses’ selection of him with the third overall pick having a very good DTBL rookie year despite missing significant time due to injury.

    The Darhorses’ second round pick was pretty good too.  Jacob deGrom immediately became the staff ace and joined the ranks of the top pitchers in the league.  But besides him, they didn’t get truly great numbers out of any other pitchers.  Lance Lynn and James Shields had decent years.  Julio Teheran was a disappointment and Michael Pineda couldn’t stay healthy.  The bullpen was a two man show with Brad Boxberger and Luke Gregerson racking up saves, but with little to no support from the rest of the pen.  Again, a very good year for the Darkhorses, but they were a couple pitchers away from being a serious title contender.

    Despite falling well short of the top, there were plenty of positives for the Mavericks and Darkhorses.  The other seven teams were kind of a mess, so I’ll review all of them at the same time in my final season recap article next week.