Parts two and three of the 2016 DTBL season preview will cover six teams slated to finish in the middle of the pack with very little separation. In particular, the teams projected to finish in fourth through eighth place are bunched within 4 1/2 points of each other. So it wouldn’t take much for the three teams covered in this article to finish in the top half of the standings. These teams are projected to finish safely ahead of the bottom two, but would need to significantly surpass these numbers to get into the title race. There are signs of significant improvement over last year for two of these teams, while the third would be taking a huge step backwards if these prognostications were to come true. Obviously, teams projected to finish in the bottom half of the standings have some weaknesses, but these three teams also have significant strengths that could carry them to higher places. Here are the teams projected to finish in eighth, seventh and sixth places.
David’s Darkhorses
Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)
- Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
- Home Runs – 7th (3rd)
- Runs Batted In – 5th (2nd)
- Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd)
- Stolen Bases – 5th (7th)
- Earned Run Average – 8th (8th)
- WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
- Wins – 6th (2nd-T)
- Saves – 9th (9th)
- Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
- Total Batting Points – 4th (2nd)
- Total Pitching Points – 8th (7th)
- Total Points – 8th (3rd)
Summary:
Okay, this is a pretty rough looking projection for a team that finished third last year. But if you look closely at the numbers, the drop-off from a year ago is not that significant. The 61.5 points they earned last year was more in line with a middle of the pack team most years. But they are still slated to drop close to 10 points, which would make an eighth place finish pretty disappointing. On the positive side, the offense looks very strong again. They didn’t select a hitter until the fourth round of the draft, so this lineup is mostly the same as last year. If Bryce Harper has another season like the last one, you can probably safely assume these team power projections are on the low side. Todd Frazier, George Springer and Xander Bogaerts are three other players who seem primed for big years. The concern is on the mound. Last year, Jacob deGrom pretty much carried the rotation, but a pair of Carloses have been brought in to help: Carlos Martinez and Carlos Rodon. Those guys have huge upside, but modest projections in ERA and WHIP. The bullpen is definitely a weakness at the moment with Brad Boxberger and Carson Smith hurt. Jake McGee appears to be the only player on the roster who can be counted on for saves in April. The Darkhorses absolutely have the talent to contend. But we’ll have to see if they are able to outperform this iffy pitching forecast.
Kelly’s Cougars
Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)
- Batting Average – 5th (6th)
- Home Runs – 6th (9th)
- Runs Batted In – 6th (9th)
- Runs Scored – 4th (9th)
- Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
- Earned Run Average – 6th (6th)
- WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
- Wins – 3rd (4th)
- Saves – 5th (8th)
- Strike Outs – 6th (3rd)
- Total Batting Points – 5th (10th)
- Total Pitching Points – 5th (4th)
- Total Points – 7th (9th)
Summary:
Although this projection only shows a two place jump, I think the Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the league. First of all, their ninth place finish was a little misleading due to the tightness of the race to the bottom. They actually looked like one of the stronger teams in the league early last season. But a late season collapse sent them spiraling to 9th. For quite some time now, they have had a very solid pitching staff but have been waiting for the offense to catch up. Well, that time appears to have arrived. The Cougars are actually projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points. But the closeness of these middle teams has them just seventh overall. The offense is much improved. Kris Bryant will provide an immediate power boost, joining forces with holdovers Chris Davis and Jose Abreu. Charlie Blackmon and Michael Brantley are two very underrated players as well. This should be the best offensive team the Cougars have fielded since 2010. The pitching staff is largely the same as last year, led by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer. But the potential for a big boost here would be getting a full season out of Adam Wainwright. The bullpen looks pretty strong with Cody Allen and David Robertson, but Drew Storen losing the closer gig in Toronto isn’t helpful. Overall, this is a very solid team. I’m betting the over on seventh place.
Kevin’s Kings
Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)
- Batting Average – 2nd (8th)
- Home Runs – 2nd-T (7th-T)
- Runs Batted In – 4th (5th)
- Runs Scored – 5th (3rd)
- Stolen Bases – 2nd (3rd)
- Earned Run Average – 10th (10th)
- WHIP Ratio – 8th (6th)
- Wins – 10th (10th)
- Saves – 3rd (3rd)
- Strike Outs – 9th (9th)
- Total Batting Points – 1st (4th)
- Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
- Total Points – 6th (10th)
Summary:
This entire section requires a huge asterisk after news hit last night that A.J. Pollock broke his elbow. Pollock was easily the Kings best, most irreplaceable offensive player last year. So these projections showing them leading the league in batting points seems highly unlikely. Having said that, the Kings still have far more talent than most teams coming off a last place season. The offense was actually pretty good in 2015, but they were torpedoed by an awful pitching staff. It looks to be the same story heading into 2016. Carlos Correa and David Peralta will add to a strong group of returning hitters including Mookie Betts, Robinson Cano and Carlos Gonzalez. If they are able to get bounce-back seasons out of Jay Bruce and Jonathan LuCroy, they definitely could have one of the best hitting teams in the league, even without Pollock. The pitching staff, on the other hand, is still a huge problem. It was basically Max Scherzer and a bunch of stiffs last year. They are hoping Marcus Stroman can lend a hand and are hopeful for a bounce-back year from Jeff Samardzija. The bullpen is a strength. They will enter the season with four closers. The Kings seem like a safe bet to improve on last year’s disaster. But if they don’t get several pitchers to take their games to another level, another finish in the bottom half of the standings seems likely.