Welcome to the 2016 DTBL season! Before things get started for real on Sunday, I’m going to kick off my annual season preview articles. Last year, the Jackalope turned the season into a bit of a snoozer as they basically dominated the league from start to finish. Surely, that won’t happen again this year, will it? Which other teams can pose a serious threat to their title defense? As has been the custom in recent years, I have compiled projected stats for all players currently on DTBL rosters and have used those to create a projection of the league standings.
Once again, I am using ZiPS as my source for 2016 stat projections for every statistical category except for saves, which I obtained from Steamer. Please check out this post from three years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections. I am using the stats for all 28 players who were on each team’s roster at the completion of the draft, even if they are not expected to contribute much this season. However, the team totals are adjusted to assume a 14 hitter and 9 pitcher roster. Again, check the link above to see exactly how I’m doing this.
Before I get started, a quick look back at last year’s projections. First, the Jackalope dominance was definitely not expected as they were slotted to finish sixth. But some of the other forecasts were pretty solid, including the projection of an extremely bunched middle of the pack and disappointing seasons for the Kings, Gators and Moonshiners. No doubt, this year’s projections won’t hit all the marks either, but I still think this provides some value in identifying pre-season strengths and weaknesses of each team.
I will break this into four sections. In the past, I’ve gone with three teams in the first two parts and two in the final two. But I’m switching it up a bit this year. Not to spoil the full standings, but there is a pretty clear delineation at both the top and bottom of the standings with a pair of teams sticking out on each end and the middle six picked to finish in an extremely tight group. So I’m going to go 2-3-3-2 this year. With that, here are the teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings in 2016.
Mike’s Moonshiners
Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)
- Batting Average – 10th (7th)
- Home Runs – 10th (4th)
- Runs Batted In – 8th (6th)
- Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
- Stolen Bases – 9th (10th)
- Earned Run Average – 5th (4th)
- WHIP Ratio – 6th (4th)
- Wins – 7th (5th)
- Saves – 6th (10th)
- Strike Outs – 10th (7th)
- Total Batting Points – 10th (6th-T)
- Total Pitching Points – 7th (6th)
- Total Points – 10th (7th)
Summary:
At this time last year, the Moonshiners had just swung a couple huge trades to give their pitching staff a much needed boost. Adding Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez certainly did improve their staff, but not nearly enough to make them a contender. Meanwhile, their offense wasn’t great either as they limped to a seventh place finish. Unfortunately, these projections show them taking a huge step in the wrong direction this year, especially on the hitting side. They are not projected to finish higher than fifth in any category and are slotted dead last in three categories. The problem, at least on offense, appears to be a lack of players who are expected to post monster numbers. There are some reasons for optimism though. Their first two draft picks, Miguel Sano and Michael Conforto, have enormous upside and could easily become their best two offensive players immediately. On the pitching side, it is hard to imagine a staff led by Greinke, Hernandez and Dallas Keuchel not being at least average. Also, while the bullpen doesn’t have any huge names, they do currently have four guys slated to be closers. The Moonshiners will need to vastly exceed these projections to have a good season, but last place seems a little overly pessimistic for a franchise that has NEVER finished worse than seventh.
Greg’s Gators
Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)
- Batting Average – 9th (2nd)
- Home Runs – 4th (10th)
- Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
- Runs Scored – 9th (6th)
- Stolen Bases – 4th (1st)
- Earned Run Average – 9th (5th)
- WHIP Ratio – 10th (9th)
- Wins – 9th (8th)
- Saves – 7th (4th)
- Strike Outs – 8th (10th)
- Total Batting Points – 8th (5th)
- Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th-T)
- Total Points – 9th (8th)
Summary:
So the order is switched, but the bottom two of these projections are the same as a year ago. Despite finishing in eighth place in 2015, the Gators made significant strides, particularly with their bats. This year, the goal would seem to be to improve the pitching staff. Steven Matz joins a rotation that badly needs an ace. These projections don’t show them making the necessary jump on the mound to move up the standings. But this is familiar territory for the Gators, being projected near the bottom. Their actual results last year were much better than even their place of finish would indicate. And there are some positive signs in these projections too, including a big improvement in power. If Yoenis Cespedes’ second half can carry into the new year, things will really be looking up. Corey Seager hopes to anchor an improved infield. Overall, there is a lot to like about the Gators roster. Unfortunately, the pitching staff has too many question marks for them to project as a contender this year. At the very least, the Gators aim to finish above the bottom three for the first time since 2010.
I don’t plan on finishing last this season, either!