DTBL News

Category: Naturals

  • DTBL April Awards


    In the past, there have been regular features regarding a player and pitcher of the week here in DTBL.  Unfortunately, keeping up with that arrangement for a full season is difficult.  Instead, what I’m aiming to do is do an awards column every month.  The goal will be to feature the top 5 players for each of the big DTBL categories – Rookie of the Year (ROY), Cy Young, and Most Valuable Player (MVP).

    These won’t be monthly awards in that they’re honoring the top 5 every month.  Instead, they will be cumulative, to give a snapshot of who’s leading in the awards chase as the season goes on. In this way, it should be interesting to see who maintains their torrid starts, who drops off, and who comes on strong as the season goes along.

    With each category, you’ll find the 5 picks along with their stats. I’ll offer some brief commentary about the players involved, and comment on surprise players who don’t make the cut. I’ll rely on ESPN’s Player Rater for rankings if players are particularly close, and to help differentiate pitchers and hitters for ROY.

    All stats below are through April 30.

    ROY:

    1. Jose Fernandez, Demigods – 0.832 WHIP, 1.59 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 55 Ks
    2. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .279 BA, 22 R, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 0 SB
    3. Sonny Gray, Jackalope – 1.146 WHIP, 1.76 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 37 Ks
    4. Anthony Rendon, Naturals – .316 BA, 19 R, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB.
    5. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.930 WHIP, 1.47 ERA, 2 W, 0 SV, 26 Ks

    In a decision that should surprise no one, Jose Fernandez claims the top spot in the ROY category. Stellar numbers across the board indicate no drop off from his stellar year last year. Josh Donaldson is one of the few bright spots on a dismal Moonshiners squad, as he’s proving worthy of his lofty draft selection. Sonny Gray’s numbers definitely overperform his draft slot; this holds true even more for Anthony Rendon, particularly as he gets bounced around various positions in the field. Finally, Julio Teheran’s ratio stats are incredible, with only wins and strikeouts holding him back from vaulting up the leaderboard.

    The surprises in this field are the disappointing starts from the top two picks, Wil Myers and Yasiel Puig. Puig is starting to heat up, but Myers is definitely struggling. In fact, rookie pitchers are far outstripping rookie hitters to this point, with Michael Wacha, Andrew Cashner, and others knocking on the door. Watch out for Brian Dozier as well; he’d be on this list if not for starting the season on the Moonshiner bench.

    Cy Young:

    1. Adam Wainwright, Cougars – 0.778 WHIP, 1.20 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 42 Ks
    2. Jose Fernandez, Demigods – 0.832 WHIP, 1.59 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 55 Ks
    3. Johnny Cueto, Demigods – 0.766 WHIP, 1.15 ERA, 2 W, 0 SV, 50 Ks
    4. Zack Greinke, Naturals – 1.047 WHIP, 2.04 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 46 Ks
    5. Francisco Rodriguez, Naturals – 0.769 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 0 W, 11 SV, 17 Ks

    For Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, and Johnny Cueto, their numbers speak for themselves. Stellar WHIPs and ERAs, tons of strikeouts. Zack Greinke is right there with them. For all these pitchers, the question is, can they stay healthy and maintain this success for an entire year?

    The real surprise on this list is the return of Francisco Rodriguez. Undrafted going into the year, the Naturals picked up K-Rod off the scrap heap after the first week, and what a signing he’s been. A miniscule whip, a perfect ERA, 11 saves, and 17 strikeouts. Who knows if this renaissance will last, but he’s definitely deserving of this space through April.

    There is no shortage of pitchers lurking in the shadows, however. Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer both feature stats that wouldn’t look out of place here. On the flip side, Clayton Kershaw’s absence in April has probably doomed him from being considered for the award this year, while Stephen Strasburg’s ratios are uncommonly high.

    MVP:

    1. Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals – .364 BA, 24 R, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB
    2. Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope – .269 BA, 19 R, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 2 SB
    3. Adrian Gonzalez, Darkhorses – .317 BA, 18 R, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 1 SB
    4. Mike Trout, Mavericks – .321 BA, 21 R, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 4 SB
    5. Albert Pujols, Jackalope – .279 BA, 21 R, 9 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB

    Troy Tulowitzki’s tantalizing numbers show what he can do when healthy (and with the benefits of Coors Field). The question with him, as always: can he stay healthy? Giancarlo Stanton had a monstrous April with 8 homers and 31 RBI. One has to wonder what he could do in a smaller home park. Adrian Gonzalez has found his power again, smashing 8 homers in April; the same can be said for Albert Pujols and his 9 dingers. Of course, everyone knows what Mike Trout brings, and his inclusion on this list is no surprise.

    There is no shortage of players jockeying for position behind this quintet – Alexi Ramirez, Justin Upton, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz. And while Prince Fielder of the Moonshiners has been terrible with his move to Texas, the even bigger surprise is how off Miguel Cabrera has been. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on this list next month, but 2 home runs through April is uncharacteristically poor for a two years removed from a Triple Crown.

    Questions? Comments? Grievances your player got left out? Feel free to leave your comments below.

  • A Painful Start

    Darkhorses pitcher Matt Moore

    For several years now, it has felt like the number of injuries has been on a steady rise in Major League Baseball. I’m sure there are facts to back this up, but I’m so certain of it, I’m not going to waste my time researching it.  (That, and I’m lazy.)  This year, we’ve reached a new high (or should I say low?). The number of players who have been sidelined due to injuries in the first four weeks of the season is staggering. Actually, this all started well before Opening Day. In March, at least a half dozen pitchers had their seasons end prematurely due to torn ligaments in their elbows. Several other pitchers have been added to that list since the season started. And now position players are dropping like flies as well. The only good thing about these injuries is that no team has been immune. Of course, the level to which each team has been decimated varies greatly. And to a slight degree, this is reflected in the current league standings.

    It would be a lot quicker to list the DTBL teams who have not lost a player for the remainder of the season due to an injury. There are only three: the Choppers, Gators and Naturals. But even those three have been dealing with injuries to key players. Particularly the Choppers who just got Adrian Beltre back while Chris Sale remains disabled for at least another week and Mark Trumbo figures to miss at least another month. Those are three of their top players. The Gators are about to get Hisashi Iwakuma back in their rotation for the first time this season and they are dealing with some minor injuries to offensive players as well. The Naturals have probably been the luckiest team in the league, from a health standpoint. But even they currently have three players on the DL.

    It’s kind of a disaster for the rest of the league. The two top teams from last season have both been dealing with all sorts of pitching injuries. The Mavericks knew they would be without Matt Harvey this year. But losing Clayton Kershaw after one start was a huge blow. Meanwhile, Mat Latos and Taijuan Walker are yet to make their season debuts. Same for Manny Machado offensively. The good news for the Mavericks is that all of those players are expected to return soon.  The Kings may not have had as significant of injuries early on, but the sheer volume is starting to catch up to them now. Anibal Sanchez and Jason Grilli hit the DL last week, joining teammates Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Cuddyer and Nate Jones. They also lost two draft picks to Tommy John surgery within days of their selections: Patrick Corbin and David Hernandez, who both happen to play for the Diamondbacks as well. Several other Kings are dealing with day-to-day injuries too. It isn’t pretty.

    The Cougars also lost a pair of pitchers to torn elbow ligaments: Kris Medlen and Josh Johnson. They are currently dealing with injuries to two of their top sluggers in Chris Davis and Josh Hamilton. Casey Janssen hasn’t pitched yet this year either. Then there are the Darkhorses who have managed to remain near the top of the standings despite another Tommy John casualty in Matt Moore. Mike Minor will finally take a big league mound for the first time this season later this week. But their biggest blow may have come this past weekend when Bryce Harper tore a ligament in his thumb and will be out until at least early July. Oh, Russell Martin is on the DL for them too.

    How about the Demigods? Well, things were looking bleak in March when Doug Fister, Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto were all dealing with injuries. But Cueto has been excellent and Hamels is back now too. Fister should return next week. So all in all, they are in decent shape. Except they too lost a pitcher, Bobby Parnell, to a torn UCL. Kole Calhoun is currently out with an ankle injury as well. The Jackalope are hopeful about the return of Aroldis Chapman who suffered quite possibly the most gruesome injury of the spring when he took a line drive to the head. On the other hand, Avisail Garcia is out for the year with a torn labrum and Jurickson Profar won’t make his season debut for at least another month. Finally, we have the Moonshiners. Just one season ending injury for them: Brandon Beachy who has undergone Tommy John surgery for the second time in three years and has pitched just 111 innings since the Moonshiners drafted him in 2012. They are also without second round pick Wilson Ramos who is recovering from a broken hand.

    So there you go. That’s a pretty staggering list of injuries, but there are actually plenty of others I didn’t mention who are currently injured or have already returned from previous DL stints, including a whole bunch of current free agents.  Everyone has their own theory on why all of these injuries are occurring, particularly when it comes to the torn elbow ligaments of pitchers.  I don’t think there is a conclusive theory out there yet though.  I certainly hope some of the best minds in sports medicine and therapy will be able to figure this out eventually, because it is taking a toll on the sport to see so many of the best players having full seasons in the middle of their primes completely wiped out.

    There is a little bit of good news though. Injuries usually peak early in the season and settle down as the year goes on. So there is hope for that to occur this year too. But there are already a whole bunch of players who won’t be returning until 2015. Let’s all hope for a healthier May.

  • 2014 Season Preview: Part II

    Naturals outfielder Billy Hamilton

    Much like the teams featured in part one of the 2014 DTBL season preview, the teams we will focus on in this section would probably be disappointed to exactly meet these projections this season.  Two of these teams made big steps forward a year ago and hope to take that last step to become title contenders this season.  The third team fell off the pace a bit last year following several years as one of the league’s elite franchises and likely hopes to return to that status this year.  Here is a look at the teams that are projected to finish in the middle of the pack, fifth through seventh place.  We’ll start with the projected seventh place finisher and then move to the two teams who are slated to tie for fifth.  They will be covered alphabetically.

    David’s Darkhorses

    Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 10th (4th)
    • Home Runs – 4th (8th)
    • Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
    • Runs Scored – 8th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average – 8th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (9th)
    • Wins – 3rd (5th)
    • Saves – 4th (6th)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th (6th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 6th-T (7th)
    • Total Points – 7th (6th)

    Summary:

    Last year was an obvious improvement for the Darkhorses after finishing dead last in 2012.  They got off to a quick start and found themselves in first place for a good portion of the first quarter of the year.  But they faded a bit in the second half and finished in sixth place.  They have had a consistent core of veteran players for quite some time now, but this year they are augmenting that group with some very talented youngsters.  Their first three draft picks, Xander Bogaerts, Julio Teheran and Christian Yelich could help form the next core of great Darkhorses.  The projections show them as a slightly below average team with the bats and on the mound.  But there are reasons to be optimistic, in addition to those newcomers.  They have been extremely unlucky on the injury front in recent years, but seem to be entering this season in much better shape.  If Mike Minor is at full strength soon, he will slide into a very solid pitching staff.  On offense, they should benefit from a pair of left handed hitters moving to lefty friendly Yankee Stadium (Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann).  Also, Bryce Harper is a solid bet to take his game to a new level this year.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (6th)
    • Home Runs – 7th (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 5th (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (9th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (7th-T)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 4th (4th)
    • Wins – 2nd (7th)
    • Saves – 1st (8th)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (7th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 1st (6th)
    • Total Points – 5th-T (5th)

    Summary:

    The Cougars were one of the surprising teams of 2013, finishing in the top half of the league for the first time in years.  This year could be an opportunity for further improvement.  The projections tell a pair of conflicting tales though.  They are projected to lead the league in pitching points but to finish dead last in hitting.  So it makes sense for that to put them in the middle of the road overall.  Their offense was a huge surprise last year, largely carried by Chris Davis’ breakout season.  They will need a couple other guys to help carry the load though, especially if Davis can’t quite duplicate his ’13 season.  A bounce-back year from Josh Hamilton would help.  The pitching staff is very, very good.  Losing Kris Medlen to Tommy John surgery hurts, but they still have Madison Bumgarner, Adam Wainwright, Gio Gonzalez and newcomers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chris Archer.  The bullpen has a chance to be the best in the league with four guys starting the year as closers.  Can this loaded pitching staff lead the Cougars into the championship mix?

    Nick’s Naturals

    Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 2nd (1st)
    • Home Runs – 8th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In – 7th (5th)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 2nd (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (2nd)
    • Wins – 9th (6th)
    • Saves – 6th (5th)
    • Strike Outs – 9th (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (3rd-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 6th-T (4th)
    • Total Points – 5th-T (4th)

    Summary:

    A fifth place finish would certainly be a disappointment for a team that has been a title contender each of the last five years.  But the Naturals have to be one of the hardest teams to predict for this season because they have the league’s biggest wild card on their roster:  first round draft pick Billy Hamilton.  ZiPS projects him to steal 68 bases, which is obviously a huge number, but seems well short of what he is capable of if he actually spends the whole year in the Reds starting lineup.  If he succeeds, the Naturals will lead the league in stolen bases after finishing ninth a year ago.  If he is unable to establish himself as a big league hitter, well, the Naturals still have Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen, so I think they’ll be okay.  Pitching is probably a bigger question mark, but looking at their rotation and bullpen, it is filled with guys who everyone would want to have on their team.  If David Price pitches like he did in the second half of last year and Matt Cain shakes off a mediocre ’13 season, the Naturals will once again have one of the best staffs in the league.  And if that happens, this projection will look kind of foolish.

  • Bold New Faces

    Jackalope outfielder Yasiel Puig

    Baseball is supposed to be fun.  The first few players taken in the DTBL Draft all seem to understand that.  Besides their prodigious talent, what these guys have in common is a youthful exuberance that occasionally rubs their opponents, and sometimes even their teammates, the wrong way.  But only a curmudgeon who insists that the unwritten rules of the game be followed to a T wouldn’t enjoy watching these guys play.  And when it comes to fantasy baseball, you definitely want them on your team.

    The 22nd Annual DTBL Draft kicked off Wednesday morning.  Almost exactly 24 hours later, the first round was complete.  The round featured as strong of a set of young talent as we’ve seen in quite some time.  Perhaps there have been stronger drafts at the very top spot or two, but the number of young superstars taken in this draft so far has been quite impressive, and should keep the draft entertaining for several more rounds.

    The Jackalope kicked things off by selecting the Cuban phenom, outfielder Yasiel Puig.  Yes, Puig Mania has made its way to the DTBL.  It took Puig all of about a week after making his MLB debut last summer before he became the talk of the league.  From the monster home runs, mind-boggling throws and blazing sprints around the bases, Puig proved himself to be the definition of a five tool player.  Sure, some of those tools are easier to harness than others.  But there is nothing he can’t do on a baseball field.  Really, the only thing that kept him from being a complete no-brainer with the first overall pick was the Jackalope’s already full outfield and perhaps a small worry about a second year flame-out.  But the decision to take Puig couldn’t have been too difficult.  In just four months in the big leagues, he hit .319 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  Most years, he would have been an absolute lock for Rookie of the Year with those numbers, but we’ll get to why that was not the case in a bit.  The sky is the limit for this guy.

    With the second pick, the Gators took another young phenom outfielder in Wil Myers.  Prior to last season, he was traded from Kansas City to Tampa Bay before making his big league debut, a very rare occurrence for such a highly touted prospect.  Once he got the call to Tampa, he did not disappoint.  He slugged 13 home runs in 335 MLB at bats on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.  Myers is probably the biggest power prospect in this draft.  He doesn’t have Puig’s speed or flare, but he already looks the part as a middle of the order power hitter.  He will join a Gators offense which has gone through a remarkable makeover the past two years.  He joins Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Leonys Martin in a very exciting and young Gators outfield.

    Trivia question:  which team finished second to the Kings in batting points last year.  Unless your name is Dom, you probably didn’t know the answer is the Demigods.  Only a truly dreadful pitching staff relegated them to an eighth place finish rather than being a title contender.  But was their pitching staff really that bad, or just a bit unlucky?  Well, Johnny Cueto missed a majority of the season with an injury.  Cole Hamels only won eight games despite excellent peripheral numbers.  Doug Fister was his usual solid, underrated self.  And Yu Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Enter the third pick in the draft, Jose Fernandez.  For the second straight year, the Demigods acquired the best strikeout pitcher in the draft with their first pick (Darvish last year).  Fernandez had an absolutely phenomenal rookie campaign for the Marlins.  12 wins, a sub 1.0 WHIP, 2.19 ERA and 187 strike outs.  He beat out Puig to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.  The addition of Fernandez could turn the Demigods league worst pitching staff into one of the best.  I know there is a long way to go in this draft, but if you are looking for a sleeper team this year, the Demigods would be a solid bet.

    Here are three awesome GIFs of the top three draft choices enjoying their home runs… yes, including the pitcher Fernandez.  Wait, Puig’s was actually a triple, which makes it even better.  Which one is your favorite?

    The fun didn’t end with the first three picks though.  With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners elected to go with the best available player, third baseman Josh Donaldson.  Last year, Donaldson pretty much came out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate, or at least he would have been if we lived in a world where Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout didn’t exist.  He hit .301 with 24 home runs and 93 RBI.  Although he figured to be an early draft pick, the Moonshiners are a bit of a surprise suitor since they already have David Wright and Kyle Seager at the hot corner.  But all of them figure to be on their Opening Day roster.  Donaldson should provide a solid boost to a strong core of Moonshiners hitters.

    With the fifth pick, the Darkhorses went even younger, taking 21 year old third baseman Xander Bogaerts (he’s a couple months younger than Fernandez).  2013 was quite a year for Bogaerts.  He progressed from highly touted AA prospect, to MLB utility player, to World Series starting third baseman.  Bogaerts is considered an elite prospect because of his bat and his glove.  The former makes him an attractive fantasy prospect as well, especially since he will likely shift over to shortstop next year.  This is the kind of pick that is becoming the norm in the first round of DTBL drafts.  Highly ranked prospects don’t stay on the board very long, no matter how little experience the player has.

    The Cougars were the only team to pick a non-DTBL rookie in the first round.  They selected outfielder Domonic Brown with the sixth pick.  Despite only being 26 himself, Brown is actually three years removed from his one year of DTBL experience.  He was a disappointment in that year with the Demigods and was starting to look like a bust of a former big time prospect until his breakout 2013 season.  He slugged 27 home runs with 83 RBI for the Phillies.  In the previous three seasons, he hit just 12 homers while bouncing up and down between MLB and AAA.  But now he appears to be here to stay and should give the Cougars a solid power boost in their outfield.

    There was no first round pick with a wider boom-to-bust potential than the Naturals selection of speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton with the seventh pick.  Either Hamilton is going to win stolen bases for the Naturals by himself by being an every day top of the order hitter, or he is going to be too much of a liability with the bat that the Reds will use him almost exclusively as a pinch runner or send him back to the minors.  There’s almost no in between for him.  But if there is a team that can afford to take this gamble, it is the Naturals.  They have guys like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki who will pretty much assure them of finishing high in the power categories, allowing them to play a one dimensional player.  But that one dimension could be unlike anything this league has ever seen.  Hamilton has stolen over 85 bases in each of his three full professional seasons and stole 13 bases in his first 13 major league games (with just 22 plate appearances!)  This is going to be fun to watch.

    With the eighth pick, the Choppers selected second baseman Matt Carpenter.  He was sort of the NL version of Donaldson, suddenly breaking out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate.  He hit .318 and led all of baseball in hits (199), runs scored (124) and doubles (55).  He doesn’t have great power or speed, but his high extra base totals led to plenty of RBI as well (78), making him an elite three category player.  If some of those doubles start going over the wall, his value could soar even more.  The Choppers were the surprise team of ’13 and appear primed to make a serious run at the title this year.  Carpenter should help them in that endeavor.

    The first round ended with two more young pitchers going off the board.  The Mavericks grabbed Gerrit Cole with the ninth pick.  The first overall pick of the 2011 amateur draft, Cole reached the big leagues for the Pirates last summer and pitched extremely well.  In fact, he only got better as the season progressed.  Some were a little concerned by his mediocre strike out rate in AAA, but he was actually more effective in that regard in the majors.  And throwing his fastball in the high 90’s, it is hard to imagine him not continuing that trend this season.  This year, he will try to replace Matt Harvey as best he can for the Mavericks.  But in 2015, a rotation of Harvey, Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Mat Latos almost sounds unfair to the rest of the league.

    Finally, the Kings concluded the first round by taking pitcher Shelby Miller.  For the first few months of the year, Miller was one of the best pitchers in baseball and appeared well on his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award until Fernandez and Puig burst onto the scene and stole his thunder.  Miller faded a bit in the second half and then was almost unheard from in October for the Cardinals.  But that was probably the result of going well past his previous career high in innings and maybe the Cardinals being a little cautious as well.  If he can put together a full season that resembles the first half of 2013, he will quickly become one of the league’s elite pitchers.

    For the first time in six years, no first round picks were traded.  On a related note, it was the first year in quite some time that the Mavericks didn’t make multiple first round selections.  But there was one trade completed during the round.  The Kings dealt second baseman Ben Zobrist to the Gators for outfielder Michael Cuddyer.  This was a trade of excess pieces for both teams.  After drafting Myers, the Gators had six outfielders on their roster while the Kings had four middle infield keepers.  So this trade made sense for both sides to fill other needs.  Zobrist has bounced between several positions in recent years, but has returned to the infield this year where he is much more valuable.  He will provide the Gators with solid power and speed at a very thin position.  Meanwhile, Cuddyer returns to the Kings squad that drafted and then cut him just a couple years ago.  Cuddyer is coming off the best year of his career, hitting .331 with 20 home runs in 2013.

    The first round was certainly a lot of fun.  Let’s see what the rest of the draft brings us.

  • Cabrera Named MVP Again

    Naturals third baseman Miguel Cabrera

    For the second straight year, the American League MVP vote caused a lively debate about the meaning of “value” and the use of new advanced stats to determine said value.  The end result, both years, was a MVP win for old school stat champion Miguel Cabrera over sabermetrician darling Mike Trout.  The debate was/is slightly different when it comes to fantasy baseball since fielding value is meaningless and base running only matters in terms of stolen bases and runs scored.  Trout received strong consideration for the DTBL MVP award last year, falling a little short.  But this year, he wasn’t even the second choice.  This wasn’t terribly surprising since almost the only reason why Trout was deemed more valuable than Cabrera by some is because the gap between the two players on defense was so enormous.  Again, fielding doesn’t matter in fantasy baseball, so for the second straight year, Naturals third baseman Miguel Cabrera is the DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    Had the 2013 season ended in August, even sabermetricians would have been on board with a Cabrera AL MVP, despite his defensive flaws.  But multiple injuries plagued him through the final month or so of the season, making him a shell of the player he had been up to that point.  A healthy Cabrera is simply the best hitter in baseball right now.  Although he did not threaten to win the triple crown this year like he did in the AL in 2012 (and came close in the DTBL as well), he still finished at or near the top of the league in four of the five offensive categories.  The one category he led, batting average, was the category that kept him from winning the DTBL triple crown last year.  Cabrera hit a robust .348, 25 points higher than any other player.  He hit 44 home runs and drove in 137 runs, bested by only Chris Davis in each category.  He finished third in the league with 103 runs scored.  Had he been healthy down the stretch, a .350/50/150 season was within reach.  But it is hard not to be impressed with his actual numbers.

    Cabrera has replaced Albert Pujols as the safest bet in baseball to put up obscene numbers year in and year out.  He has hit .320 or better in eight of his ten DTBL seasons, all with the Naturals.  Only once did he fail to hit 30 home runs (2006) and he has NEVER had a DTBL season with fewer than 100 RBI.  So basically, the worst season of his career was still better than what all but a handful of players did this year.  It bodes well for a team’s offense when they can pencil in a likely .320, 40, 130 from their best player every year.  Although the Naturals were unable to defend their title this year, Cabrera was obviously not the reason.

    The MVP vote was very interesting.  Cabrera won fairly comfortably, but he was not close to being a unanimous selection.  He was first on seven ballots, second on two and third on one for a total of 89 points.  Cougars outfielder Chris Davis had a huge breakout year, slugging 53 home runs and also leading the league in RBI.  He wound up leading the way among a pack of three players who fell a little short of winning the award.  Davis received two first place votes and four seconds, but was inexplicably left off one ballot.  However, it didn’t cost him first runner up status as he finished with 59 points.  Another breakout star, Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt finished third.  He accumulated 48 points, just barely edging out Trout’s 46.  Trout did receive one first place vote, but otherwise wasn’t strongly considered.  Like Davis, he was also surprisingly left off a ballot.  Finally, the biggest oddity of the vote was the fifth place finisher.  Not that he didn’t deserve to finish fifth, but it is strange to see the most consensus in the vote to be for a player finishing fifth.  Eight out of the ten voters believed Mavericks outfielder Adam Jones was the fifth most valuable player in the league.  Sure enough, he came in fifth with eight points.  Also interesting was NL MVP Andrew McCutchen receiving just two votes, putting him seventh.

    Click here to view the full MVP voting results.

    Thanks to everyone for getting your ballots submitted so quickly.  With that, we are now ready for winter.  Since most people seemed to prefer the late roster cut deadline we implemented last year, I think we will keep it that way permanently.  So the no-trade period will continue until after roster cuts are made in early February.  If you have ideas for 2014 rule changes, feel free to send them my way or get a discussion going on the message board (although site traffic will probably be very light the next few months).

    Have a great Thanksgiving!

  • Best of the Rest

    Choppers relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel

    Through most of the 2013 DTBL season, there was a fairly obvious line of demarcation between the contenders and the also-rans.  Four teams had legitimate title aspirations most of the season, while the other six were left to build for the future.  The Mavericks, Choppers and Naturals were not able to win the league, but to varying degrees, 2013 was a good season for them.

    For the second consecutive year, the Mavericks missed winning the league championship by a single point.  And the similarities between 2012 and 2013 don’t end there for the Mavericks.  Just like 2012, they were the best team in the league in the second half of the season and possibly would have won both years if the season was a week longer.  They erased the Kings double digit lead and briefly took over first place at the end of August.  But injuries to key players down the stretch eventually did them in.  A couple of those injuries could have a lingering effect on their 2014 campaign as well.  They had to finish the season without the services of three of their best players:  Matt Harvey, Manny Machado and Edwin Encarnacion.  Since the season ended, the news hasn’t gotten any better regarding Harvey and Machado.  Harvey eventually succumbed to Tommy John surgery and probably will not pitch next year.  Machado underwent knee surgery that may not have him back in time for Opening Day.  Encarnacion’s injury was less serious, but couldn’t have come at a worse time.  He led the Mavericks in home runs and, at the time of the injury, was also the club leader in RBI.

    Although they didn’t win the title, the 2013 Mavericks can lay claim to a couple impressive distinctions, arguably including the greatest pitching staff in league history.  They broke the league record for lowest team ERA and WHIP.  Their 2.63 club ERA smashed the record previously held by the 2011 Jackalope (2.83).  In WHIP, they also bested the ’11 Jackalope mark 1.05 to 1.12.  They were well on their way to breaking the strikeout record as well before the Harvey injury, but wound up falling nine strikeouts short of the total by the 2007 Mavericks.  It is hard to imagine another team besting those team ERA and WHIP totals anytime soon.  Harvey, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg helped make up one of the most dominating rotations ever assembled.  Kershaw and Harvey finished 1-2 in both ERA and WHIP.  The offense wound up being a bit of a disappointment though, and ultimately was the reason they didn’t win the league.  They will look to improve that group next year, particularly since it seems unlikely they will be able to duplicate this pitching performance.

    Besides the Kings, the Choppers were probably the team most pleased with their 2013 season.  They finished the season in third place, a height in which they had not reached since 2001.  In fact, this is the first time they have finished in the top half of the standings since 2006.  This was no fluke.  They made significant improvements to their offense, and especially their pitching, to finish just nine points out of first place.

    The Choppers led the league in home runs, RBI and saves.  The saves title was extremely interesting since they spent a good portion of the year with a starting pitcher occupying one of their bullpen slots (Alexi Ogando).  But Craig Kimbrel and Mariano Rivera more than made up for that.  Their rotation was sneaky good as well.  None of these guys got serious Cy Young hype, but Chris Sale, C.J. Wilson, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Jarrod Parker all had outstanding seasons.  The staff accumulated 37 pitching points, only exceeded by the record breaking Mavericks.  The Choppers offense wasn’t too shabby either.  Finishing on top of the league in HR and RBI was a true team effort.  Seven different Choppers hit at least 20 home runs while eight guys had 70+ RBI.  Pedro Alvarez led the team in both categories (36, 100), and he was nearly matched by Mark Trumbo (34, 100).  Also, Jayson Werth was one of the best hitters in the league in the second half of the season.  This was a huge stepping stone season for the Choppers.  They should enter 2014 as one of the top title contenders.

    It is almost always a disappointment for a defending champion when they are unable to successfully defend that title.  So the Naturals probably won’t remember this season fondly.  However, this year’s squad really wasn’t that much worse than the team that won it all in dramatic fashion a year ago.  In 2012, the Naturals won the league with 70.5 points.  This year, they only dropped a handful of points down to 66, but that put them in a distant fourth place.  Their offense actually earned them more points than a year ago.  But because of the emergence of a few other teams’ pitching staffs, the Naturals took a bit of a dive.

    Just like last year, the Naturals offense was carried by strong MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera led the league in batting average and finished second behind Chris Davis in both home runs and runs batted in.  Interestingly enough, it was batting average that kept him from winning the DTBL triple crown a year ago, a feat he did accomplish in the American League in ’12.  Andrew McCutchen further entrenched himself as one of the game’s best hitters this year too.  But besides those two players, the Naturals lacked that third dominating player they needed to make a serious title run.  As mentioned, the pitching staff took a hit this year.  Matt Cain was the biggest disappointment.  Mid-season injuries to Zack Greinke and David Price proved costly as well.  The Naturals most consistent pitcher from start to finish this year was the under-appreciated Jordan Zimmermann who finished second in the league with 19 wins.  The Naturals don’t need to do much to return to the top next year.  Perhaps they will focus on building depth in case they face another injury plagued season in 2014.

    The final part of my 2013 season review will examine the six teams who were not serious title contenders this year.  Look for that sometime late next week.  I hope you have been enjoying these baseball playoffs.  It has been one of the most exciting Octobers I can recall, with nearly every game coming down to the final pitches.  Let’s hope for more of the same the next couple weeks!

  • The Stretch Run

    Choppers outfielder Jayson Werth

    I’m not sure we will ever see a final week of a baseball season quite like last year’s when five teams had a great chance to win the DTBL title right up to the last few pitches of the season.  So compared to that, this year’s pennant race may seem a little boring.  But for the four teams who have found themselves near the top of the standings most of the year, there is plenty of drama left in this season.

    Let’s start with the team that came out of last year’s wild finish with the title.  The Naturals haven’t quite been able to replicate last year’s success.  They currently sit in fourth place, 11 points behind the leader.  I’ll be honest, it doesn’t appear that they will be able to successfully defend their title.  They just have too much ground to make up and too many teams to catch.  The only case you could make for them to win this thing would be to put up an obscene stat line in the last week combined with a collapse from the three teams above.  Part of the Naturals problem has been that the player they depend on the most, Miguel Cabrera, has been severely limited by injuries over the last month or so.  Without his typical mashing, the Naturals offense just hasn’t been that strong.  Also, the September injury to Allen Craig couldn’t have come at a worse time with nobody capable of replacing him.  Their pitching has actually been very good of late, recently passing the Kings in both ERA and WHIP.  However, I just don’t see enough categories where gaining additional points is possible to give them a realistic shot at winning this thing.

    The case for the Choppers winning the league is much stronger.  The surprise team of the year, the Choppers have been on fire of late.  Their surprising pitching staff is now second in the league in pitching points, leading the way in saves and an impressive second place in ERA.  Chris Sale has been a beast all year, despite the unfortunately low win total.  C.J. Wilson is quietly having an outstanding year as well.  The Choppers offense has been slugging their way up the standings too.  It appears they will finish the season on top of the home run and RBI categories.  If there were such a thing as second half MVP, Jayson Werth would be a strong candidate for it.  Their key injury is to Jose Baustista, but his loss hasn’t really hurt their offense at all.  The Choppers opportunities to pick up points are limited, but average and runs are the two to watch, especially since the teams they are chasing in those categories are the two ahead of them in the overall standings.  They definitely need the Kings and Mavericks to drop a couple points this week, but that is very possible.  Assuming they hang onto a top 3 spot, this will be their best finish since 2001.  But they still have higher aspirations than just that.

    The Kings have been the title favorites for a while now.  They have topped the standings most of the season.  On occasion during the middle of the summer, it looked like they might run away with the title as they frequently held a double digit point lead.  But now they are hanging on for dear life.  They actually gave up the lead for a few days near the end of August.  But a couple strong weeks since have boosted them back to the lead.  The moment when things started turning south for the Kings is easy to identify:  when their best player, Carlos Gonzalez, suffered his finger injury in early July.  The Kings have had to move on without him for virtually the entire second half of the season.  But fortunately for them, they have found a few guys to pick up the slack on offense down the stretch, led by Ryan Zimmerman.  The recent concern has been with the previously solid pitching staff.  In the last week, they coughed up several points in ERA and WHIP.  Barring a terrible last week, they should be safe from losing more points in most pitching categories though.  Their vulnerability comes in two key categories:  runs scored (currently 1st) and stolen bases (4th).  If they can hold off the Choppers and/or Mavericks in those categories, they should be able to claim their fifth DTBL championship.  That is hardly a sure thing at this point though.

    I saved the Mavericks for last because I have a little more to say about them.  There were two big stories involving the Mavericks in August which deserved their own articles, but I had a few hectic weeks around that time and wasn’t able to make the time to write about them.  First, the Mavericks and Jackalope pulled off a major deadline trade.  The Mavs sent shortstop Jurickson Profar, first baseman Eric Hosmer and their third round pick in 2014 to the Jackalope for shortstop Elvis Andrus, second baseman Daniel Murphy, relief pitcher Steve Cishek and a fifth round draft pick.  The most fascinating thing about this trade is that the two key players in the deal, Andrus and Profar, have had their careers so tightly tied to one another the last couple years.  Profar was widely considered the top prospect in baseball entering this season.  The problem is, he is a shortstop for the Rangers, who happen to already have a pretty good shortstop by the name of Andrus.  Profar has spent the entire season on the MLB roster, but has been a part time player, seriously hampering his fantasy value.  But the Jackalope weren’t too worried about that considering this season was already a lost cause for them anyway.  Expect the Rangers to fix this log jam in the winter, especially if they wind up missing the playoffs which now appears quite possible.  Andrus and Profar should both be everyday players by next spring.  The Jackalope also received an intriguing player in Hosmer, who is finally starting to show some of that potential that hasn’t been seen since his rookie year.  This trade makes all the sense in the world for the Jackalope, acquiring two keepers for one as they begin their rebuild.  Likewise, the Mavericks made a major upgrade at their weakest spot:  middle infield.  Cishek has given them a boost in the bullpen, which is now one of the league’s best to go along with their unbeatable rotation.  I’m already declaring this trade a win/win for both sides.

    The other piece of Mavericks news in late August was not nearly as positive.  Phenom pitcher Matt Harvey was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in his elbow.  Usually, this leads to Tommy John surgery, but as of now it appears Harvey will try to rest and rehab without surgery.  This will be a huge story next spring, because if he does succumb to surgery, that would obviously be a huge blow to the Mavericks for 2014.  But as for this season, the injury has not had a major impact because the Mavericks had/have such an enormous lead in the three categories where Harvey provided the most value:  ERA, WHIP and strike outs.  If the Mavericks don’t win the title, it won’t be because Harvey got hurt.  But this story clearly put a bit of a damper on their championship hunt.

    The Mavericks are definitely the team with the best chance of catching the Kings in the final week.  I can’t really put a probability figure on it, but I think they have a great chance.  The Kings have been very vulnerable for a couple months now and have anything but a safe lead in a couple key categories, as described above.  The Mavericks need a big week from their offense though.  Like all of the other title contenders, the Mavericks are going down the stretch without one of their best offensive players.  Team home run leader Edwin Encarnacion had season ending wrist surgery just last week.  But the Mavericks have likely maxed out in the power categories anyway.  Batting average, runs scored and stolen bases are the key.  And they just happen to have the best player in baseball when it comes to contributing to all three of those categories:  Mike Trout.  Just like last season, Trout is finishing this campaign on fire.  He will attempt to carry most of the load for the Mavs in the final week.  His heroic effort down the stretch last season came up just short.  Perhaps this year will be different.

    So we have four teams vying for the title.  It should be a fun week.  Unfortunately, if the title comes down to the final day like it did last season, I won’t be able to do another live blog/tweet event because I will be spending most of Sunday behind the wheel driving back from South Bend.  So you will be on your own to figure out what’s going on.  The live stats should make that much easier to do this year though, if you are so inclined.  Good luck to the championship contenders!

  • Biogenesis Fallout

    Free agent third baseman Alex Rodriguez

    It has been about two weeks since all of the Biogenesis related suspensions were handed out by Major League Baseball, so I am very late to the party.  For the most part, I am tired of the story and have nothing particularly insightful to add.  But there are pretty significant baseball implications here, so I feel the need to write a little bit about it.  Fortunately, I will be able to quickly bury this post with a much more interesting article (to me) coming in the next day or two.  In case you didn’t notice, there was a pretty big trade made before the deadline last week.  But first, here are some of my Biogenesis thoughts along with the impact the suspensions will have on the DTBL.

    I have to admit that I was very skeptical of the entire Biogenesis story when it was made public earlier this year.  It seemed far too coincidental that many of the players being implicated in the story just happened to be most of the players who had tested positive for PEDs and/or served drug related suspensions last year.  As it turns out, there was a good reason for this.  All of these players were receiving their PEDs from the same source:  Tony Bosch and his Biogenesis clinic.  Many have stated that these suspensions and subsequent admissions of guilt are a black eye on the sport of baseball.  I don’t see it that way.  In fact, I think it is somewhat encouraging that most of the players suspended in the last year and a half had ties to this now defunct clinic.  This is not to say I believe PEDs have been completely eradicated from the league now that Biogenesis is no more.  But I believe these suspensions are a positive step towards cleaning up the game.  Cheaters are getting caught and punished.  That is more than could be said as recently as five years ago.  Also, while there is still plenty of room for improvement in the drug testing and punishment program, MLB is so far ahead of the other three major professional sports leagues in this regard, it isn’t even worth comparing.  That MLB seems to take far more heat than the NFL for having a PED problem is completely ridiculous.

    To me, one of the most fascinating aspects of the Biogenesis scandal has been the way it has been covered by the media.  Not only the overwhelming number of articles on the topic, but the extent to which specific guilty players have been skewered as cheaters and liars.  They are indeed both of those things, but this isn’t new information.  Almost everyone besides die-hard Brewers fans and Aaron Rodgers knew Ryan Braun was guilty of taking PEDs when he avoided a suspension on a pure technicality following a failed drug test.  The fact that he is now admitting his guilt after accepting a 65 game suspension is not particularly interesting news, in my opinion.  He certainly owes a major apology to the sample handler whose character he attacked, among allegedly much worse things, as the Braun drama continues.  And the Brewers fans who have stuck by Braun throughout his career have every right to be angry.  But other than that, I don’t see Braun as much more of a villain than any of these other suspended players, past or present.  Almost all of these guys attempted to do whatever they could to avoid punishment, just as Braun did.  Heck, somewhat hilariously, Melky Cabrera tried to create an entire web site to prove his innocence.  But he seems to have been forgiven as he is now yesterday’s news.  Braun and Alex Rodriguez just happen to be the biggest names in this story, and are therefore receiving the most attention.

    And then there is ARod and his pending 211 game suspension.  I am really curious to see what kind of dirt MLB has on him, because on the face of it, the largest drug related suspension in league history seems a bit harsh for a player who has not tested positive under the current drug testing regime.  I have no opinion on how much of a suspension he deserves without knowing exactly what he did, but again I state that almost all of these players have taken steps to try to duck the long arm of the law.  Just how serious ARod’s offenses were in comparison will be interesting to see.  I would hope the fact that pretty much everybody wants him to just go away, including his own employer, had no bearing on the decision to give him this unprecedented year and a half ban.  Just because everyone hates him isn’t enough of a reason to cast him out to sea.  But the willingness of the rest of these players to accept their punishments leads me to believe that MLB’s evidence is pretty solid.  So the ARod saga continues.

    Now for the DTBL impact of Biogenesis.  Despite some huge names going down in this scandal, it doesn’t appear to be particularly likely to swing the DTBL title race in one direction or another.  Almost all of the suspended players happen to be on non-contending teams.  Losing Braun is just another major blow in a nightmare season for the Jackalope.  They will finish this season without the two main faces of their franchise (Braun and Albert Pujols, who was just ruled out for the season due to his foot injury).  The Moonshiners will be without the services of Jhonny Peralta, but they too are in the midst of a disappointing season.  Nelson Cruz will be out of the Gators lineup for 50 games.  The Gators currently sit in last place, but seem to be building a more competitive team for the future.  Losing Cruz won’t really change much.  Ditto for Everth Cabrera and the Demigods.  The one suspended player on a contending team is Jesus Montero of the Naturals.  However, he had been sent to AAA a couple months ago and didn’t figure to play much of a role down the stretch for the Naturals anyway.  Finally, Alex Rodriguez has been a free agent all season after the Kings finally cut him last winter.  Interestingly enough, there is a chance a DTBL team might take a flyer on him before the year is over since he is finally healthy and doesn’t figure to have his appeal ruled upon until very late in the season, if not after it.  Despite receiving the biggest punishment of any Biogenesis player, he may be the only one on a DTBL active roster in September.  Well, maybe Melky Cabrera (Gators) too since he did not receive any additional punishment having served his suspension last year.  Same for Yasmani Grandal (Naturals) , but he’s out for the year with a knee injury anyway.

    To close things out, in regards to Biogensis, I am going to steal a line from The Band Perry:  All I want to be is done!

  • A Terrific Trio of Tigers

    Kings pitcher Max Scherzer

    This season marks the 10th anniversary of Kevin’s Kings most recent DTBL Championship.  They are attempting to cap off the celebration this year by becoming the first franchise to win a fifth league title.  They are the current front-runners, holding a nine point lead over the Mavericks.  The primary reason for their lead is a dominant pitching staff led by three Detroit Tigers teammates:  Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez.

    It can be a dangerous proposition to put all of your proverbial eggs in a single MLB team’s basket, but that is largely what the Kings are doing.  With three fifths of their rotation consisting of Tigers pitchers, the Kings could have been doomed if this Tigers squad seriously underachieved.  While Detroit is not running away with anything, their hitting and pitching have largely lived up to expectations, rewarding the Kings along the way.  The Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez trio has been especially dominant.

    These three pitchers are having great seasons, with each of them contributing very similar numbers.  All three are on the league leaderboard in strike outs, averaging more than a strike out per inning.  They all have at least six wins with ERAs of 3.70 or better and very solid WHIPs.  Together, they have helped boost the Kings to the top of the league in wins and near the top in the other pitching categories as well.  Each took a different path to get to this point of their career with the Kings, however.

    Verlander has been the ace of the Kings staff, and one of the top pitchers in the league, ever since the Kings selected him in the third round of the 2009 draft.  This year, he has been solid, but not spectacular.  In fact, he probably has the worst numbers of this Tigers trio.  Scherzer and Sanchez both have better ERAs and WHIPs and even have more strike outs than Verlander to this point.  But still, Verlander’s 87 strike outs and seven wins are nothing to sneeze at.  He’s the safest bet to keep up the current pace for a full season since he’s done it four straight years.  He has had a minimum of 17 wins and 219 strike outs in every season with the Kings.  He is second, behind Randy Johnson, in franchise history in ERA, WHIP and strike outs.

    Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.  He won his eighth game of the year this afternoon, tying him for most in the league.  His impressive 0.89 WHIP is second best, as is his strike out total which reached the 100 mark this afternoon.  He’s been fairly unlucky to have an ERA over 3 (3.24) when looking at the rest of his numbers.  But he’s on pace to set career bests in all four relevant categories.  Scherzer was acquired in a trade with the Jackalope back in 2010.  At the time, he was stuck on the bench for a Jackalope squad that had one of the strongest rotations in league history.  Now he’s playing a leading role for the first place Kings.  He has been a solid strike out contributor for quite some time, but this year is the first time he’s put it all together for a significant stretch.  But his hot streak really started in the second half of last season.  His turnaround from a rough start was a key factor in the Kings near miss of the ’12 championship.

    Sanchez is the big surprise of this group.  He’s been a solid, but not spectacular player for several years.  But his inconsistency has led him to be shuffled in and out of the lineup since the Kings signed him as a free agent in 2011.  The potential has always been there though, which is why the Kings have continued to retain his services despite being a part time player for them prior to this season.  He won just seven games for the Kings a year ago, but is already at six this year.  His 2.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are way better than his career marks.  And 98 strike outs in 78 innings blows away anything he has done before.  So if there is one candidate most likely to come down to earth, it would be Sanchez.  He’s in a much better situation than in previous years though.  He pitches for a very good offensive squad in a great pitcher’s ballpark.  If he can continue to pitch as he has so far this season, he will be a pretty impressive third option for both the Tigers and Kings.

    The Kings will need these three guys to continue to lead their staff because they got some bad news yesterday regarding another member of their rotation.  Jake Peavy has a broken rib and will miss at least 4-6 weeks.  It was Peavy who was expected to be the Kings number three guy behind Verlander and Scherzer.  But Sanchez has grabbed that spot and will try to lessen the blow of the loss of Peavy.

    Gators and Naturals Make a Deal

    In other (belated) league news, the Naturals and Gators completed this year’s first regular season trade a few weeks ago.  The Naturals dealt outfielder Starling Marte and their 8th round pick in 2014 to the Gators for relief pitcher Greg Holland and a 6th round pick.  The Naturals were in desperate need of a closer following the spring training loss of Jason Motte and a subsequent injury to Chris Perez (who has some interesting legal issues hanging over him now too).  Holland has been perfect for the Naturals so far, earning three saves with a spotless ERA.  Meanwhile, Marte figures to be another important piece in the Gators rebuilding process.  He has hit a rough patch since joining the Gators and is currently in their minors, but this trade was more about the future.  The Gators have a vastly improved offense following a few years of historic ineptitude with the bats.  Eventually, Marte should fit in nicely with the other good, young players the Gators have acquired in the last 12 months.

    The big story in baseball this week is ESPN’s report that MLB is seeking to suspend 20+ players, including some of the game’s biggest stars, in the wake of the Biogenesis PED investigation.  However, I don’t think this is worth discussing in any great detail until actual suspensions are handed out.  Call me a skeptic, but unless there is hard evidence beyond Tony Bosch’s personal testimony, I think MLB will have a hard time dolling out lengthy bans.  Bosch is simply not a credible witness.  But we’ll wait and see what other evidence is provided.  Stay tuned.

  • 2013 Season Preview: Part III

    Jackalope outfielder Giancarlo Stanton

    Every MLB team has a game in the books now.  I don’t think we have learned anything we didn’t already know.  Good pitching tends to beat good hitting.  Pitchers usually have the edge early in the season, especially on the first couple days when the aces are on the hill.  Also, Clayton Kershaw and Bryce Harper are pretty good.  And as I’m writing this, some guy name Marwin Gonzalez just ended Yu Darvish’s perfect game bid with two outs in the bottom of the 9th.  Still, a decent Demigods debut for Mr. Darvish.

    Now we’re getting to the heart of these 2013 season projections.  The top four contains the defending champions and three other teams that came within an eyelash of winning it all last year.  All four of these teams are likely to be in the hunt again this season.  Tonight, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish fourth and third place.  They happen to be the league’s last two champions.

    Nick’s Naturals

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 1st (4th)
    • Home Runs – 8th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In – 6th (5th)
    • Runs Scored – 3rd (4th)
    • Stolen Bases – 9th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average – 2nd (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio – 1st (2nd)
    • Wins – 10th (3rd)
    • Saves – 5th (2nd-T)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (5th)
    • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (5th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 4th (2nd)
    • Total Points – 4th (1st)

    Summary:

    I hate to beat a dead horse, but here is yet another example of a team that should easily beat their projections in at least a couple categories, particularly the nearly impossible category to predict:  wins.  I would be shocked if David Price winds up as the only Naturals pitcher with more than 13 wins, which is the case in these ZiPS projections.  Matt Cain, Jordan Zimmerman, Zack Greinke and Price are going to team up for the third fewest wins in the league?  I don’t think so.  Their staff led them to the championship last year and are a decent bet to do the same this year.  What will be more interesting to follow is the progress of their offense.  With the obvious exception of Miguel Cabrera, several of the Naturals other top hitters underachieved a year ago.  Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Upton should cruise past their ’12 numbers.  Andrew McCutchen, a healthy Victor Martinez… this is a very impressive roster.  The Naturals hitting was the best in the league in 2011.  If they can combine their ’11 offense with their ’12 pitching, they will really be on to something.  And they certainly have the talent to do it.  Three teams better than this one?  We’ll see about that.

    Jay’s Jackalope

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 9th (9th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd (6th)
    • Runs Batted In – 2nd (6th)
    • Runs Scored – 2nd (7th)
    • Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 4th (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (1st)
    • Wins – 8th (7th)
    • Saves – 8th (1st)
    • Strike Outs – 5th (1st)
    • Total Batting Points – 2nd (7th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 6th (1st)
    • Total Points – 3rd (5th)

    Summary:

    The Jackalope were unable to defend their title last year mostly because their offense was a huge disappointment.  These projections are encouraging for them in that it appears they should expect to bounce back near the top of the league in most hitting categories.  Only by Albert Pujols’ lofty standards would his ’12 season be considered a disappointment, but that it was.  Expect him to return to being one of the top fantasy players in the league.  Maybe not THE top player though.  That honor might belong to Jackalope teammate Ryan Braun.  Giancarlo Stanton is vying to join that discussion too, although it will be interesting to see how much he gets to hit with Placido Polanco hitting behind him for the Marlins.  The Jackalope have been carried by a nearly unbeatable rotation the last few years.  But they may not be quite as strong this year.  There are serious concerns about Roy Halladay’s rapidly decreasing velocity.  Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee remain two of the most dependable pitchers in the game though.  One note on the Jackalope pitching projections.  They assumed Aroldis Chapman would be a starter this year.  It is debatable whether his return to the bullpen will be a net positive or negative for the Jackalope, but it certainly puts these rankings into question.  Regardless, the Jackalope have the hitting and pitching to compete for another title this year.

    That leaves two.  You know who they are now.  But you’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see who are the projected 2013 DTBL champions.