DTBL News

Much like the teams featured in part one of the 2014 DTBL season preview, the teams we will focus on in this section would probably be disappointed to exactly meet these projections this season.  Two of these teams made big steps forward a year ago and hope to take that last step to become title contenders this season.  The third team fell off the pace a bit last year following several years as one of the league’s elite franchises and likely hopes to return to that status this year.  Here is a look at the teams that are projected to finish in the middle of the pack, fifth through seventh place.  We’ll start with the projected seventh place finisher and then move to the two teams who are slated to tie for fifth.  They will be covered alphabetically.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

• Batting Average – 10th (4th)
• Home Runs – 4th (8th)
• Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
• Runs Scored – 8th (5th)
• Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
• Earned Run Average – 8th (7th)
• WHIP Ratio – 9th (9th)
• Wins – 3rd (5th)
• Saves – 4th (6th)
• Strike Outs – 6th (5th)
• Total Batting Points – 8th (6th)
• Total Pitching Points – 6th-T (7th)
• Total Points – 7th (6th)

Summary:

Last year was an obvious improvement for the Darkhorses after finishing dead last in 2012.  They got off to a quick start and found themselves in first place for a good portion of the first quarter of the year.  But they faded a bit in the second half and finished in sixth place.  They have had a consistent core of veteran players for quite some time now, but this year they are augmenting that group with some very talented youngsters.  Their first three draft picks, Xander Bogaerts, Julio Teheran and Christian Yelich could help form the next core of great Darkhorses.  The projections show them as a slightly below average team with the bats and on the mound.  But there are reasons to be optimistic, in addition to those newcomers.  They have been extremely unlucky on the injury front in recent years, but seem to be entering this season in much better shape.  If Mike Minor is at full strength soon, he will slide into a very solid pitching staff.  On offense, they should benefit from a pair of left handed hitters moving to lefty friendly Yankee Stadium (Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann).  Also, Bryce Harper is a solid bet to take his game to a new level this year.

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

• Batting Average – 7th (6th)
• Home Runs – 7th (6th)
• Runs Batted In – 5th (3rd)
• Runs Scored – 10th (9th)
• Stolen Bases – 10th (7th-T)
• Earned Run Average – 2nd (2nd)
• WHIP Ratio – 4th (4th)
• Wins – 2nd (7th)
• Saves – 1st (8th)
• Strike Outs – 5th (8th)
• Total Batting Points – 10th (7th-T)
• Total Pitching Points – 1st (6th)
• Total Points – 5th-T (5th)

Summary:

The Cougars were one of the surprising teams of 2013, finishing in the top half of the league for the first time in years.  This year could be an opportunity for further improvement.  The projections tell a pair of conflicting tales though.  They are projected to lead the league in pitching points but to finish dead last in hitting.  So it makes sense for that to put them in the middle of the road overall.  Their offense was a huge surprise last year, largely carried by Chris Davis’ breakout season.  They will need a couple other guys to help carry the load though, especially if Davis can’t quite duplicate his ’13 season.  A bounce-back year from Josh Hamilton would help.  The pitching staff is very, very good.  Losing Kris Medlen to Tommy John surgery hurts, but they still have Madison Bumgarner, Adam Wainwright, Gio Gonzalez and newcomers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chris Archer.  The bullpen has a chance to be the best in the league with four guys starting the year as closers.  Can this loaded pitching staff lead the Cougars into the championship mix?

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

• Batting Average – 2nd (1st)
• Home Runs – 8th (4th)
• Runs Batted In – 7th (5th)
• Runs Scored – 4th (4th)
• Stolen Bases – 2nd (9th)
• Earned Run Average – 4th (4th)
• WHIP Ratio – 2nd (2nd)
• Wins – 9th (6th)
• Saves – 6th (5th)
• Strike Outs – 9th (4th)
• Total Batting Points – 4th-T (3rd-T)
• Total Pitching Points – 6th-T (4th)
• Total Points – 5th-T (4th)

Summary:

A fifth place finish would certainly be a disappointment for a team that has been a title contender each of the last five years.  But the Naturals have to be one of the hardest teams to predict for this season because they have the league’s biggest wild card on their roster:  first round draft pick Billy Hamilton.  ZiPS projects him to steal 68 bases, which is obviously a huge number, but seems well short of what he is capable of if he actually spends the whole year in the Reds starting lineup.  If he succeeds, the Naturals will lead the league in stolen bases after finishing ninth a year ago.  If he is unable to establish himself as a big league hitter, well, the Naturals still have Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen, so I think they’ll be okay.  Pitching is probably a bigger question mark, but looking at their rotation and bullpen, it is filled with guys who everyone would want to have on their team.  If David Price pitches like he did in the second half of last year and Matt Cain shakes off a mediocre ’13 season, the Naturals will once again have one of the best staffs in the league.  And if that happens, this projection will look kind of foolish.

This entry was posted on Thursday, March 27th, 2014 at 10:00 pm and is filed under Cougars, Darkhorses, Naturals. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.