Choppers outfielder Jayson Werth
I’m not sure we will ever see a final week of a baseball season quite like last year’s when five teams had a great chance to win the DTBL title right up to the last few pitches of the season. So compared to that, this year’s pennant race may seem a little boring. But for the four teams who have found themselves near the top of the standings most of the year, there is plenty of drama left in this season.
Let’s start with the team that came out of last year’s wild finish with the title. The Naturals haven’t quite been able to replicate last year’s success. They currently sit in fourth place, 11 points behind the leader. I’ll be honest, it doesn’t appear that they will be able to successfully defend their title. They just have too much ground to make up and too many teams to catch. The only case you could make for them to win this thing would be to put up an obscene stat line in the last week combined with a collapse from the three teams above. Part of the Naturals problem has been that the player they depend on the most, Miguel Cabrera, has been severely limited by injuries over the last month or so. Without his typical mashing, the Naturals offense just hasn’t been that strong. Also, the September injury to Allen Craig couldn’t have come at a worse time with nobody capable of replacing him. Their pitching has actually been very good of late, recently passing the Kings in both ERA and WHIP. However, I just don’t see enough categories where gaining additional points is possible to give them a realistic shot at winning this thing.
The case for the Choppers winning the league is much stronger. The surprise team of the year, the Choppers have been on fire of late. Their surprising pitching staff is now second in the league in pitching points, leading the way in saves and an impressive second place in ERA. Chris Sale has been a beast all year, despite the unfortunately low win total. C.J. Wilson is quietly having an outstanding year as well. The Choppers offense has been slugging their way up the standings too. It appears they will finish the season on top of the home run and RBI categories. If there were such a thing as second half MVP, Jayson Werth would be a strong candidate for it. Their key injury is to Jose Baustista, but his loss hasn’t really hurt their offense at all. The Choppers opportunities to pick up points are limited, but average and runs are the two to watch, especially since the teams they are chasing in those categories are the two ahead of them in the overall standings. They definitely need the Kings and Mavericks to drop a couple points this week, but that is very possible. Assuming they hang onto a top 3 spot, this will be their best finish since 2001. But they still have higher aspirations than just that.
The Kings have been the title favorites for a while now. They have topped the standings most of the season. On occasion during the middle of the summer, it looked like they might run away with the title as they frequently held a double digit point lead. But now they are hanging on for dear life. They actually gave up the lead for a few days near the end of August. But a couple strong weeks since have boosted them back to the lead. The moment when things started turning south for the Kings is easy to identify: when their best player, Carlos Gonzalez, suffered his finger injury in early July. The Kings have had to move on without him for virtually the entire second half of the season. But fortunately for them, they have found a few guys to pick up the slack on offense down the stretch, led by Ryan Zimmerman. The recent concern has been with the previously solid pitching staff. In the last week, they coughed up several points in ERA and WHIP. Barring a terrible last week, they should be safe from losing more points in most pitching categories though. Their vulnerability comes in two key categories: runs scored (currently 1st) and stolen bases (4th). If they can hold off the Choppers and/or Mavericks in those categories, they should be able to claim their fifth DTBL championship. That is hardly a sure thing at this point though.
I saved the Mavericks for last because I have a little more to say about them. There were two big stories involving the Mavericks in August which deserved their own articles, but I had a few hectic weeks around that time and wasn’t able to make the time to write about them. First, the Mavericks and Jackalope pulled off a major deadline trade. The Mavs sent shortstop Jurickson Profar, first baseman Eric Hosmer and their third round pick in 2014 to the Jackalope for shortstop Elvis Andrus, second baseman Daniel Murphy, relief pitcher Steve Cishek and a fifth round draft pick. The most fascinating thing about this trade is that the two key players in the deal, Andrus and Profar, have had their careers so tightly tied to one another the last couple years. Profar was widely considered the top prospect in baseball entering this season. The problem is, he is a shortstop for the Rangers, who happen to already have a pretty good shortstop by the name of Andrus. Profar has spent the entire season on the MLB roster, but has been a part time player, seriously hampering his fantasy value. But the Jackalope weren’t too worried about that considering this season was already a lost cause for them anyway. Expect the Rangers to fix this log jam in the winter, especially if they wind up missing the playoffs which now appears quite possible. Andrus and Profar should both be everyday players by next spring. The Jackalope also received an intriguing player in Hosmer, who is finally starting to show some of that potential that hasn’t been seen since his rookie year. This trade makes all the sense in the world for the Jackalope, acquiring two keepers for one as they begin their rebuild. Likewise, the Mavericks made a major upgrade at their weakest spot: middle infield. Cishek has given them a boost in the bullpen, which is now one of the league’s best to go along with their unbeatable rotation. I’m already declaring this trade a win/win for both sides.
The other piece of Mavericks news in late August was not nearly as positive. Phenom pitcher Matt Harvey was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in his elbow. Usually, this leads to Tommy John surgery, but as of now it appears Harvey will try to rest and rehab without surgery. This will be a huge story next spring, because if he does succumb to surgery, that would obviously be a huge blow to the Mavericks for 2014. But as for this season, the injury has not had a major impact because the Mavericks had/have such an enormous lead in the three categories where Harvey provided the most value: ERA, WHIP and strike outs. If the Mavericks don’t win the title, it won’t be because Harvey got hurt. But this story clearly put a bit of a damper on their championship hunt.
The Mavericks are definitely the team with the best chance of catching the Kings in the final week. I can’t really put a probability figure on it, but I think they have a great chance. The Kings have been very vulnerable for a couple months now and have anything but a safe lead in a couple key categories, as described above. The Mavericks need a big week from their offense though. Like all of the other title contenders, the Mavericks are going down the stretch without one of their best offensive players. Team home run leader Edwin Encarnacion had season ending wrist surgery just last week. But the Mavericks have likely maxed out in the power categories anyway. Batting average, runs scored and stolen bases are the key. And they just happen to have the best player in baseball when it comes to contributing to all three of those categories: Mike Trout. Just like last season, Trout is finishing this campaign on fire. He will attempt to carry most of the load for the Mavs in the final week. His heroic effort down the stretch last season came up just short. Perhaps this year will be different.
So we have four teams vying for the title. It should be a fun week. Unfortunately, if the title comes down to the final day like it did last season, I won’t be able to do another live blog/tweet event because I will be spending most of Sunday behind the wheel driving back from South Bend. So you will be on your own to figure out what’s going on. The live stats should make that much easier to do this year though, if you are so inclined. Good luck to the championship contenders!