Archive for the ‘Jackalope’ Category

DTBL April Awards

Saturday, May 3rd, 2014


In the past, there have been regular features regarding a player and pitcher of the week here in DTBL.  Unfortunately, keeping up with that arrangement for a full season is difficult.  Instead, what I’m aiming to do is do an awards column every month.  The goal will be to feature the top 5 players for each of the big DTBL categories – Rookie of the Year (ROY), Cy Young, and Most Valuable Player (MVP).

These won’t be monthly awards in that they’re honoring the top 5 every month.  Instead, they will be cumulative, to give a snapshot of who’s leading in the awards chase as the season goes on. In this way, it should be interesting to see who maintains their torrid starts, who drops off, and who comes on strong as the season goes along.

With each category, you’ll find the 5 picks along with their stats. I’ll offer some brief commentary about the players involved, and comment on surprise players who don’t make the cut. I’ll rely on ESPN’s Player Rater for rankings if players are particularly close, and to help differentiate pitchers and hitters for ROY.

All stats below are through April 30.

ROY:

1. Jose Fernandez, Demigods – 0.832 WHIP, 1.59 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 55 Ks
2. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .279 BA, 22 R, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 0 SB
3. Sonny Gray, Jackalope – 1.146 WHIP, 1.76 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 37 Ks
4. Anthony Rendon, Naturals – .316 BA, 19 R, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB.
5. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.930 WHIP, 1.47 ERA, 2 W, 0 SV, 26 Ks

In a decision that should surprise no one, Jose Fernandez claims the top spot in the ROY category. Stellar numbers across the board indicate no drop off from his stellar year last year. Josh Donaldson is one of the few bright spots on a dismal Moonshiners squad, as he’s proving worthy of his lofty draft selection. Sonny Gray’s numbers definitely overperform his draft slot; this holds true even more for Anthony Rendon, particularly as he gets bounced around various positions in the field. Finally, Julio Teheran’s ratio stats are incredible, with only wins and strikeouts holding him back from vaulting up the leaderboard.

The surprises in this field are the disappointing starts from the top two picks, Wil Myers and Yasiel Puig. Puig is starting to heat up, but Myers is definitely struggling. In fact, rookie pitchers are far outstripping rookie hitters to this point, with Michael Wacha, Andrew Cashner, and others knocking on the door. Watch out for Brian Dozier as well; he’d be on this list if not for starting the season on the Moonshiner bench.

Cy Young:

1. Adam Wainwright, Cougars – 0.778 WHIP, 1.20 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 42 Ks
2. Jose Fernandez, Demigods – 0.832 WHIP, 1.59 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 55 Ks
3. Johnny Cueto, Demigods – 0.766 WHIP, 1.15 ERA, 2 W, 0 SV, 50 Ks
4. Zack Greinke, Naturals – 1.047 WHIP, 2.04 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 46 Ks
5. Francisco Rodriguez, Naturals – 0.769 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 0 W, 11 SV, 17 Ks

For Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, and Johnny Cueto, their numbers speak for themselves. Stellar WHIPs and ERAs, tons of strikeouts. Zack Greinke is right there with them. For all these pitchers, the question is, can they stay healthy and maintain this success for an entire year?

The real surprise on this list is the return of Francisco Rodriguez. Undrafted going into the year, the Naturals picked up K-Rod off the scrap heap after the first week, and what a signing he’s been. A miniscule whip, a perfect ERA, 11 saves, and 17 strikeouts. Who knows if this renaissance will last, but he’s definitely deserving of this space through April.

There is no shortage of pitchers lurking in the shadows, however. Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer both feature stats that wouldn’t look out of place here. On the flip side, Clayton Kershaw’s absence in April has probably doomed him from being considered for the award this year, while Stephen Strasburg’s ratios are uncommonly high.

MVP:

1. Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals – .364 BA, 24 R, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB
2. Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope – .269 BA, 19 R, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 2 SB
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Darkhorses – .317 BA, 18 R, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 1 SB
4. Mike Trout, Mavericks – .321 BA, 21 R, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 4 SB
5. Albert Pujols, Jackalope – .279 BA, 21 R, 9 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB

Troy Tulowitzki’s tantalizing numbers show what he can do when healthy (and with the benefits of Coors Field). The question with him, as always: can he stay healthy? Giancarlo Stanton had a monstrous April with 8 homers and 31 RBI. One has to wonder what he could do in a smaller home park. Adrian Gonzalez has found his power again, smashing 8 homers in April; the same can be said for Albert Pujols and his 9 dingers. Of course, everyone knows what Mike Trout brings, and his inclusion on this list is no surprise.

There is no shortage of players jockeying for position behind this quintet – Alexi Ramirez, Justin Upton, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz. And while Prince Fielder of the Moonshiners has been terrible with his move to Texas, the even bigger surprise is how off Miguel Cabrera has been. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on this list next month, but 2 home runs through April is uncharacteristically poor for a two years removed from a Triple Crown.

Questions? Comments? Grievances your player got left out? Feel free to leave your comments below.

A Painful Start

Tuesday, April 29th, 2014

Darkhorses pitcher Matt Moore

For several years now, it has felt like the number of injuries has been on a steady rise in Major League Baseball. I’m sure there are facts to back this up, but I’m so certain of it, I’m not going to waste my time researching it.  (That, and I’m lazy.)  This year, we’ve reached a new high (or should I say low?). The number of players who have been sidelined due to injuries in the first four weeks of the season is staggering. Actually, this all started well before Opening Day. In March, at least a half dozen pitchers had their seasons end prematurely due to torn ligaments in their elbows. Several other pitchers have been added to that list since the season started. And now position players are dropping like flies as well. The only good thing about these injuries is that no team has been immune. Of course, the level to which each team has been decimated varies greatly. And to a slight degree, this is reflected in the current league standings.

It would be a lot quicker to list the DTBL teams who have not lost a player for the remainder of the season due to an injury. There are only three: the Choppers, Gators and Naturals. But even those three have been dealing with injuries to key players. Particularly the Choppers who just got Adrian Beltre back while Chris Sale remains disabled for at least another week and Mark Trumbo figures to miss at least another month. Those are three of their top players. The Gators are about to get Hisashi Iwakuma back in their rotation for the first time this season and they are dealing with some minor injuries to offensive players as well. The Naturals have probably been the luckiest team in the league, from a health standpoint. But even they currently have three players on the DL.

It’s kind of a disaster for the rest of the league. The two top teams from last season have both been dealing with all sorts of pitching injuries. The Mavericks knew they would be without Matt Harvey this year. But losing Clayton Kershaw after one start was a huge blow. Meanwhile, Mat Latos and Taijuan Walker are yet to make their season debuts. Same for Manny Machado offensively. The good news for the Mavericks is that all of those players are expected to return soon.  The Kings may not have had as significant of injuries early on, but the sheer volume is starting to catch up to them now. Anibal Sanchez and Jason Grilli hit the DL last week, joining teammates Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Cuddyer and Nate Jones. They also lost two draft picks to Tommy John surgery within days of their selections: Patrick Corbin and David Hernandez, who both happen to play for the Diamondbacks as well. Several other Kings are dealing with day-to-day injuries too. It isn’t pretty.

The Cougars also lost a pair of pitchers to torn elbow ligaments: Kris Medlen and Josh Johnson. They are currently dealing with injuries to two of their top sluggers in Chris Davis and Josh Hamilton. Casey Janssen hasn’t pitched yet this year either. Then there are the Darkhorses who have managed to remain near the top of the standings despite another Tommy John casualty in Matt Moore. Mike Minor will finally take a big league mound for the first time this season later this week. But their biggest blow may have come this past weekend when Bryce Harper tore a ligament in his thumb and will be out until at least early July. Oh, Russell Martin is on the DL for them too.

How about the Demigods? Well, things were looking bleak in March when Doug Fister, Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto were all dealing with injuries. But Cueto has been excellent and Hamels is back now too. Fister should return next week. So all in all, they are in decent shape. Except they too lost a pitcher, Bobby Parnell, to a torn UCL. Kole Calhoun is currently out with an ankle injury as well. The Jackalope are hopeful about the return of Aroldis Chapman who suffered quite possibly the most gruesome injury of the spring when he took a line drive to the head. On the other hand, Avisail Garcia is out for the year with a torn labrum and Jurickson Profar won’t make his season debut for at least another month. Finally, we have the Moonshiners. Just one season ending injury for them: Brandon Beachy who has undergone Tommy John surgery for the second time in three years and has pitched just 111 innings since the Moonshiners drafted him in 2012. They are also without second round pick Wilson Ramos who is recovering from a broken hand.

So there you go. That’s a pretty staggering list of injuries, but there are actually plenty of others I didn’t mention who are currently injured or have already returned from previous DL stints, including a whole bunch of current free agents.  Everyone has their own theory on why all of these injuries are occurring, particularly when it comes to the torn elbow ligaments of pitchers.  I don’t think there is a conclusive theory out there yet though.  I certainly hope some of the best minds in sports medicine and therapy will be able to figure this out eventually, because it is taking a toll on the sport to see so many of the best players having full seasons in the middle of their primes completely wiped out.

There is a little bit of good news though. Injuries usually peak early in the season and settle down as the year goes on. So there is hope for that to occur this year too. But there are already a whole bunch of players who won’t be returning until 2015. Let’s all hope for a healthier May.

2014 Season Preview: Part III

Saturday, March 29th, 2014

Demigods outfielder Carlos Gomez

Now we’re starting to get to the teams that absolutely expect to contend for the DTBL title this year.  The third part of the 2014 season preview is the one I’ve most been looking forward to writing.  Here we will examine two teams who are both expected to make huge leaps over their 2013 performances.  These were teams that finished in the bottom three of the league a year ago, but are projected to be serious title contenders this season.  It often comes as a surprise when teams jump this many places in the standings, but neither of these projections are surprising to me.  These teams had some very obvious, and easily remedied problems which should not resurface again in 2014.  In fact, their struggles a year ago could turn into blessings in disguise because they allowed them to grab absolute studs at the beginning of this month’s draft.  Here are the teams projected to finish fourth and third in the league this year.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 6th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (10th)
  • Wins – 4th (9th)
  • Saves – 7th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (10th)
  • Total Points – 4th (8th)

Summary:

In my recap of the first round of the draft, I hinted at the Demigods being a potential sleeper team this year.  I feel somewhat vindicated for that comment because of this projection.  The Demigods had the worst pitching staff in the league in 2013, at least in terms of pitching points.  But that was not truly indicative of the kind of talent on their staff.  Yu Darvish was the staff ace, earning the DTBL Rookie of the Year award.  The rest of the staff struggled due to injuries, poor performances and maybe some bad luck.  With the third pick in this year’s draft, they added the young and exciting Jose Fernandez, immediately boosting the prestige of the pitching staff.  He’ll join Darvish, Cole Hamels, Doug Fister and Johnny Cueto to create a rotation that will surely earn them a lot more pitching points this year.  Unfortunately, several of those guys are dealing with injuries right now, but none appear to be too serious.  Trevor Rosenthal gives them a possible stud closer too, something they didn’t have last year.  The Demigods offense was actually quite good a year ago, so if they can maintain their form there, this should be a very good team.  Carlos Gomez will attempt to build on his ’13 campaign which saw him become an elite fantasy player.  This is one of the most talented squads the Demigods have ever put together.  Let’s see if it pays off.

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 1st (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (7th-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (7th)
  • Wins – 6th (8th)
  • Saves – 9th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
  • Total Points – 3rd (10th)

Summary:

2013 was a season from hell for the Jackalope.  For quite some time now, they have relied on one of the league’s best pitching staffs combined with an offense carried by Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun.  But with those two players being rendered nearly useless last year, the Jackalope had no chance of being competitive.  Assuming those two are at least a decent facsimile of their past selves, last year should turn into just a blip on the radar of a perennial contender.  Their prize for finishing dead last was Yasiel Puig.  He will try to pick up some of the slack for whatever Pujols and Braun may have lost.  The Jackalope are projected to make a worst to first jump in home runs, and nearly the same in RBI and runs too.  Besides the players already mentioned, Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton are a big reason for that.  This team has some serious star power.  The pitching staff is definitely not what it was a few years ago, but it is still quite strong.  Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee are two of the most dependable pitchers on the planet.  The bullpen is a potential weakness though.  Aroldis Chapman will likely miss the first couple months of the season after getting hit in the head with a liner during a spring training game.  That leaves Jim Johnson as the only certain closer on the roster.  This team has a lot of players who will be fun to watch.  There is almost no chance of them finishing at the bottom of the standings again in 2014.

Bold New Faces

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

Jackalope outfielder Yasiel Puig

Baseball is supposed to be fun.  The first few players taken in the DTBL Draft all seem to understand that.  Besides their prodigious talent, what these guys have in common is a youthful exuberance that occasionally rubs their opponents, and sometimes even their teammates, the wrong way.  But only a curmudgeon who insists that the unwritten rules of the game be followed to a T wouldn’t enjoy watching these guys play.  And when it comes to fantasy baseball, you definitely want them on your team.

The 22nd Annual DTBL Draft kicked off Wednesday morning.  Almost exactly 24 hours later, the first round was complete.  The round featured as strong of a set of young talent as we’ve seen in quite some time.  Perhaps there have been stronger drafts at the very top spot or two, but the number of young superstars taken in this draft so far has been quite impressive, and should keep the draft entertaining for several more rounds.

The Jackalope kicked things off by selecting the Cuban phenom, outfielder Yasiel Puig.  Yes, Puig Mania has made its way to the DTBL.  It took Puig all of about a week after making his MLB debut last summer before he became the talk of the league.  From the monster home runs, mind-boggling throws and blazing sprints around the bases, Puig proved himself to be the definition of a five tool player.  Sure, some of those tools are easier to harness than others.  But there is nothing he can’t do on a baseball field.  Really, the only thing that kept him from being a complete no-brainer with the first overall pick was the Jackalope’s already full outfield and perhaps a small worry about a second year flame-out.  But the decision to take Puig couldn’t have been too difficult.  In just four months in the big leagues, he hit .319 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  Most years, he would have been an absolute lock for Rookie of the Year with those numbers, but we’ll get to why that was not the case in a bit.  The sky is the limit for this guy.

With the second pick, the Gators took another young phenom outfielder in Wil Myers.  Prior to last season, he was traded from Kansas City to Tampa Bay before making his big league debut, a very rare occurrence for such a highly touted prospect.  Once he got the call to Tampa, he did not disappoint.  He slugged 13 home runs in 335 MLB at bats on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.  Myers is probably the biggest power prospect in this draft.  He doesn’t have Puig’s speed or flare, but he already looks the part as a middle of the order power hitter.  He will join a Gators offense which has gone through a remarkable makeover the past two years.  He joins Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Leonys Martin in a very exciting and young Gators outfield.

Trivia question:  which team finished second to the Kings in batting points last year.  Unless your name is Dom, you probably didn’t know the answer is the Demigods.  Only a truly dreadful pitching staff relegated them to an eighth place finish rather than being a title contender.  But was their pitching staff really that bad, or just a bit unlucky?  Well, Johnny Cueto missed a majority of the season with an injury.  Cole Hamels only won eight games despite excellent peripheral numbers.  Doug Fister was his usual solid, underrated self.  And Yu Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Enter the third pick in the draft, Jose Fernandez.  For the second straight year, the Demigods acquired the best strikeout pitcher in the draft with their first pick (Darvish last year).  Fernandez had an absolutely phenomenal rookie campaign for the Marlins.  12 wins, a sub 1.0 WHIP, 2.19 ERA and 187 strike outs.  He beat out Puig to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.  The addition of Fernandez could turn the Demigods league worst pitching staff into one of the best.  I know there is a long way to go in this draft, but if you are looking for a sleeper team this year, the Demigods would be a solid bet.

Here are three awesome GIFs of the top three draft choices enjoying their home runs… yes, including the pitcher Fernandez.  Wait, Puig’s was actually a triple, which makes it even better.  Which one is your favorite?

The fun didn’t end with the first three picks though.  With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners elected to go with the best available player, third baseman Josh Donaldson.  Last year, Donaldson pretty much came out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate, or at least he would have been if we lived in a world where Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout didn’t exist.  He hit .301 with 24 home runs and 93 RBI.  Although he figured to be an early draft pick, the Moonshiners are a bit of a surprise suitor since they already have David Wright and Kyle Seager at the hot corner.  But all of them figure to be on their Opening Day roster.  Donaldson should provide a solid boost to a strong core of Moonshiners hitters.

With the fifth pick, the Darkhorses went even younger, taking 21 year old third baseman Xander Bogaerts (he’s a couple months younger than Fernandez).  2013 was quite a year for Bogaerts.  He progressed from highly touted AA prospect, to MLB utility player, to World Series starting third baseman.  Bogaerts is considered an elite prospect because of his bat and his glove.  The former makes him an attractive fantasy prospect as well, especially since he will likely shift over to shortstop next year.  This is the kind of pick that is becoming the norm in the first round of DTBL drafts.  Highly ranked prospects don’t stay on the board very long, no matter how little experience the player has.

The Cougars were the only team to pick a non-DTBL rookie in the first round.  They selected outfielder Domonic Brown with the sixth pick.  Despite only being 26 himself, Brown is actually three years removed from his one year of DTBL experience.  He was a disappointment in that year with the Demigods and was starting to look like a bust of a former big time prospect until his breakout 2013 season.  He slugged 27 home runs with 83 RBI for the Phillies.  In the previous three seasons, he hit just 12 homers while bouncing up and down between MLB and AAA.  But now he appears to be here to stay and should give the Cougars a solid power boost in their outfield.

There was no first round pick with a wider boom-to-bust potential than the Naturals selection of speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton with the seventh pick.  Either Hamilton is going to win stolen bases for the Naturals by himself by being an every day top of the order hitter, or he is going to be too much of a liability with the bat that the Reds will use him almost exclusively as a pinch runner or send him back to the minors.  There’s almost no in between for him.  But if there is a team that can afford to take this gamble, it is the Naturals.  They have guys like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki who will pretty much assure them of finishing high in the power categories, allowing them to play a one dimensional player.  But that one dimension could be unlike anything this league has ever seen.  Hamilton has stolen over 85 bases in each of his three full professional seasons and stole 13 bases in his first 13 major league games (with just 22 plate appearances!)  This is going to be fun to watch.

With the eighth pick, the Choppers selected second baseman Matt Carpenter.  He was sort of the NL version of Donaldson, suddenly breaking out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate.  He hit .318 and led all of baseball in hits (199), runs scored (124) and doubles (55).  He doesn’t have great power or speed, but his high extra base totals led to plenty of RBI as well (78), making him an elite three category player.  If some of those doubles start going over the wall, his value could soar even more.  The Choppers were the surprise team of ’13 and appear primed to make a serious run at the title this year.  Carpenter should help them in that endeavor.

The first round ended with two more young pitchers going off the board.  The Mavericks grabbed Gerrit Cole with the ninth pick.  The first overall pick of the 2011 amateur draft, Cole reached the big leagues for the Pirates last summer and pitched extremely well.  In fact, he only got better as the season progressed.  Some were a little concerned by his mediocre strike out rate in AAA, but he was actually more effective in that regard in the majors.  And throwing his fastball in the high 90′s, it is hard to imagine him not continuing that trend this season.  This year, he will try to replace Matt Harvey as best he can for the Mavericks.  But in 2015, a rotation of Harvey, Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Mat Latos almost sounds unfair to the rest of the league.

Finally, the Kings concluded the first round by taking pitcher Shelby Miller.  For the first few months of the year, Miller was one of the best pitchers in baseball and appeared well on his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award until Fernandez and Puig burst onto the scene and stole his thunder.  Miller faded a bit in the second half and then was almost unheard from in October for the Cardinals.  But that was probably the result of going well past his previous career high in innings and maybe the Cardinals being a little cautious as well.  If he can put together a full season that resembles the first half of 2013, he will quickly become one of the league’s elite pitchers.

For the first time in six years, no first round picks were traded.  On a related note, it was the first year in quite some time that the Mavericks didn’t make multiple first round selections.  But there was one trade completed during the round.  The Kings dealt second baseman Ben Zobrist to the Gators for outfielder Michael Cuddyer.  This was a trade of excess pieces for both teams.  After drafting Myers, the Gators had six outfielders on their roster while the Kings had four middle infield keepers.  So this trade made sense for both sides to fill other needs.  Zobrist has bounced between several positions in recent years, but has returned to the infield this year where he is much more valuable.  He will provide the Gators with solid power and speed at a very thin position.  Meanwhile, Cuddyer returns to the Kings squad that drafted and then cut him just a couple years ago.  Cuddyer is coming off the best year of his career, hitting .331 with 20 home runs in 2013.

The first round was certainly a lot of fun.  Let’s see what the rest of the draft brings us.

Not That Bad

Monday, November 4th, 2013

Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt

The DTBL season ended more than a month ago, so now seems like the perfect time to finish part 3 of my 2013 season review.  The first part was a recap of the Kings’ championship season.  Part two covered the other teams who were title contenders through most of the season.  Finally, we have the other six teams who were never really in the race.  This isn’t to say that 2013 was a terrible year for all of them, just that there was a fairly noticeable gap between the top four and these six most of the year.  While a few of these teams were surely disappointed in how their season went, none of them were truly awful.  The Jackalope finished in last place, but their 35.5 points was the second highest total for a last place team in league history.  So, while none of these teams were particularly close to competing for the title this season, it is also fair to say that none of them need major reconstruction to be right in the thick of the race next year.

Of these six squads, the team that is probably most satisfied with their 2013 season is the Cougars.  They finished in fifth place, making this the first time they have finished in the top half of the league since 2004.  A much improved offense complemented an already strong pitching staff.  The main reason for the offensive surge was Chris Davis.  The second round steal led the league in home runs (53) and RBI (138).  He figures to get strong consideration in the upcoming MVP vote.  Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright helped the Cougars finish second in ERA.

Another team that made great strides this year would be the Darkhorses.  As many assumed they would, they managed to bounce back from the 2012 season from hell when everything that could possibly have gone wrong did.  Luck still wasn’t completely on their side as they had to fight through a bunch of key injuries, especially early.  But finishing sixth a year after coming in last is obviously a big step in the right direction.  They more than doubled their ’12 point total as well.  Bryce Harper had a nice rookie year for the Darkhorses, but they expect even bigger things from him next year.  Keeping Hanley Ramirez healthy for an entire season will be key as well.  On the pitching side of things, it is still a bit of a work in progress, but Matt Moore and Mike Minor had solid years.

Following two teams who made big improvements this year was a team that went in the opposite direction.  The Moonshiners finished in fourth place a year ago, but were just a 1.5 points away from winning their first title.  Obviously, they had hoped to compete for the title again this year, but it wasn’t to be.  They finished in a disappointing seventh place.  Other than the surprising A.J. Burnett, all of the Moonshiners pitchers failed to meet expectations.  Well, Jered Weaver was pretty good too, but didn’t put up the kind of numbers they needed from a staff ace.  On offense, the roster actually looks pretty good, but they lacked any one player having an especially huge season.  This is really a hard team to diagnose.  They don’t look like a seventh place team.  But they are lacking that star player to take them to the next level.

The Demigods took a small step backwards this season, dropping one spot to eighth place.  Their weakness is obvious:  pitching.  They finished with just eight pitching points, the lowest total in the league.  This was a surprising result considering their first round pick, Yu Darvish, turned out to be one of the best pitchers in the league.  But the rest of the rotation was a mess and they finished the season without a closer on the roster.  The amazing thing about the Demigods is that they finished in eighth despite having the second most batting points in the league.  They got solid years out of almost all of their offensive players, led by newcomer Carlos Gomez and veterans Evan Longoria and David Ortiz.  If they can just figure out their pitching problems, they are not far from being a contender.

I’m not sure anyone is ever pleased about finishing in ninth place, but the Gators were really a much improved team over their ’12 squad which also finished ninth.  Through the draft and trades, they were able to significantly improve their weak offense and have plenty of good, young talent moving forward.  Second overall draft pick Yoenis Cespedes suffered through a bit of a MLB sophomore slump, but still put up strong fantasy numbers.  But the real steals for the Gators were a pair of shortstops:  Jean Segura (8th round) and Andrelton Simmons (4th round).  Their in-season trade to acquire Starling Marte is looking pretty solid too.  The Gators pitching staff, previously their strength, was a bit of a disappointment though.  Staff ace C.C. Sabathia had one of the worst seasons of his career.  If they can get him to bounce back next year, this will be a very dangerous team.

Finally, we have the Jackalope.  To be blunt, this season was a train wreck for them.  Just two years removed from a league championship and a year after being in the title race until the last day of the season, the Jackalope hit rock bottom this year, finishing dead last.  The offense was atrocious and the pitching staff, the league’s best the previous three years, was largely disappointing as well.  It’s not too hard to figure out why their offense struggled so much.  They were without their two best players for a good portion of the season.  Ryan Braun fought through injuries before finally serving his PED suspension.  And Albert Pujols was simply not himself at any point this season, eventually causing him to miss the last couple months of the year.  The Jackalope finished a distant last place in batting points, despite getting a breakout season from Paul Goldschmidt.  He was pretty much the lone bright spot though.  Just like the Darkhorses a year ago, it is hard to imagine this team staying down at the bottom very long though.  They have way too much talent for that.  Plus, they are going to have the first pick in an absolutely loaded draft next spring….

… Which leads me to my final thought.  All six of these teams are going to be able to add potential superstars with their first round picks next year.  I’m not going to name names, but look no further than the top MLB Rookie of the Year contenders to get an idea of what kind of talent is coming.  If those picks pan out, I won’t be writing about these teams in the “non-contenders” recap next year.

Congrats to the Red Sox on their World Series title.  With that, the off-season is officially upon us.  The 2013 DTBL Awards ballot will be posted in the next couple of days with announcements of the winners coming over the next few weeks.

The Stretch Run

Monday, September 23rd, 2013

Choppers outfielder Jayson Werth

I’m not sure we will ever see a final week of a baseball season quite like last year’s when five teams had a great chance to win the DTBL title right up to the last few pitches of the season.  So compared to that, this year’s pennant race may seem a little boring.  But for the four teams who have found themselves near the top of the standings most of the year, there is plenty of drama left in this season.

Let’s start with the team that came out of last year’s wild finish with the title.  The Naturals haven’t quite been able to replicate last year’s success.  They currently sit in fourth place, 11 points behind the leader.  I’ll be honest, it doesn’t appear that they will be able to successfully defend their title.  They just have too much ground to make up and too many teams to catch.  The only case you could make for them to win this thing would be to put up an obscene stat line in the last week combined with a collapse from the three teams above.  Part of the Naturals problem has been that the player they depend on the most, Miguel Cabrera, has been severely limited by injuries over the last month or so.  Without his typical mashing, the Naturals offense just hasn’t been that strong.  Also, the September injury to Allen Craig couldn’t have come at a worse time with nobody capable of replacing him.  Their pitching has actually been very good of late, recently passing the Kings in both ERA and WHIP.  However, I just don’t see enough categories where gaining additional points is possible to give them a realistic shot at winning this thing.

The case for the Choppers winning the league is much stronger.  The surprise team of the year, the Choppers have been on fire of late.  Their surprising pitching staff is now second in the league in pitching points, leading the way in saves and an impressive second place in ERA.  Chris Sale has been a beast all year, despite the unfortunately low win total.  C.J. Wilson is quietly having an outstanding year as well.  The Choppers offense has been slugging their way up the standings too.  It appears they will finish the season on top of the home run and RBI categories.  If there were such a thing as second half MVP, Jayson Werth would be a strong candidate for it.  Their key injury is to Jose Baustista, but his loss hasn’t really hurt their offense at all.  The Choppers opportunities to pick up points are limited, but average and runs are the two to watch, especially since the teams they are chasing in those categories are the two ahead of them in the overall standings.  They definitely need the Kings and Mavericks to drop a couple points this week, but that is very possible.  Assuming they hang onto a top 3 spot, this will be their best finish since 2001.  But they still have higher aspirations than just that.

The Kings have been the title favorites for a while now.  They have topped the standings most of the season.  On occasion during the middle of the summer, it looked like they might run away with the title as they frequently held a double digit point lead.  But now they are hanging on for dear life.  They actually gave up the lead for a few days near the end of August.  But a couple strong weeks since have boosted them back to the lead.  The moment when things started turning south for the Kings is easy to identify:  when their best player, Carlos Gonzalez, suffered his finger injury in early July.  The Kings have had to move on without him for virtually the entire second half of the season.  But fortunately for them, they have found a few guys to pick up the slack on offense down the stretch, led by Ryan Zimmerman.  The recent concern has been with the previously solid pitching staff.  In the last week, they coughed up several points in ERA and WHIP.  Barring a terrible last week, they should be safe from losing more points in most pitching categories though.  Their vulnerability comes in two key categories:  runs scored (currently 1st) and stolen bases (4th).  If they can hold off the Choppers and/or Mavericks in those categories, they should be able to claim their fifth DTBL championship.  That is hardly a sure thing at this point though.

I saved the Mavericks for last because I have a little more to say about them.  There were two big stories involving the Mavericks in August which deserved their own articles, but I had a few hectic weeks around that time and wasn’t able to make the time to write about them.  First, the Mavericks and Jackalope pulled off a major deadline trade.  The Mavs sent shortstop Jurickson Profar, first baseman Eric Hosmer and their third round pick in 2014 to the Jackalope for shortstop Elvis Andrus, second baseman Daniel Murphy, relief pitcher Steve Cishek and a fifth round draft pick.  The most fascinating thing about this trade is that the two key players in the deal, Andrus and Profar, have had their careers so tightly tied to one another the last couple years.  Profar was widely considered the top prospect in baseball entering this season.  The problem is, he is a shortstop for the Rangers, who happen to already have a pretty good shortstop by the name of Andrus.  Profar has spent the entire season on the MLB roster, but has been a part time player, seriously hampering his fantasy value.  But the Jackalope weren’t too worried about that considering this season was already a lost cause for them anyway.  Expect the Rangers to fix this log jam in the winter, especially if they wind up missing the playoffs which now appears quite possible.  Andrus and Profar should both be everyday players by next spring.  The Jackalope also received an intriguing player in Hosmer, who is finally starting to show some of that potential that hasn’t been seen since his rookie year.  This trade makes all the sense in the world for the Jackalope, acquiring two keepers for one as they begin their rebuild.  Likewise, the Mavericks made a major upgrade at their weakest spot:  middle infield.  Cishek has given them a boost in the bullpen, which is now one of the league’s best to go along with their unbeatable rotation.  I’m already declaring this trade a win/win for both sides.

The other piece of Mavericks news in late August was not nearly as positive.  Phenom pitcher Matt Harvey was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in his elbow.  Usually, this leads to Tommy John surgery, but as of now it appears Harvey will try to rest and rehab without surgery.  This will be a huge story next spring, because if he does succumb to surgery, that would obviously be a huge blow to the Mavericks for 2014.  But as for this season, the injury has not had a major impact because the Mavericks had/have such an enormous lead in the three categories where Harvey provided the most value:  ERA, WHIP and strike outs.  If the Mavericks don’t win the title, it won’t be because Harvey got hurt.  But this story clearly put a bit of a damper on their championship hunt.

The Mavericks are definitely the team with the best chance of catching the Kings in the final week.  I can’t really put a probability figure on it, but I think they have a great chance.  The Kings have been very vulnerable for a couple months now and have anything but a safe lead in a couple key categories, as described above.  The Mavericks need a big week from their offense though.  Like all of the other title contenders, the Mavericks are going down the stretch without one of their best offensive players.  Team home run leader Edwin Encarnacion had season ending wrist surgery just last week.  But the Mavericks have likely maxed out in the power categories anyway.  Batting average, runs scored and stolen bases are the key.  And they just happen to have the best player in baseball when it comes to contributing to all three of those categories:  Mike Trout.  Just like last season, Trout is finishing this campaign on fire.  He will attempt to carry most of the load for the Mavs in the final week.  His heroic effort down the stretch last season came up just short.  Perhaps this year will be different.

So we have four teams vying for the title.  It should be a fun week.  Unfortunately, if the title comes down to the final day like it did last season, I won’t be able to do another live blog/tweet event because I will be spending most of Sunday behind the wheel driving back from South Bend.  So you will be on your own to figure out what’s going on.  The live stats should make that much easier to do this year though, if you are so inclined.  Good luck to the championship contenders!

Biogenesis Fallout

Tuesday, August 20th, 2013

Free agent third baseman Alex Rodriguez

It has been about two weeks since all of the Biogenesis related suspensions were handed out by Major League Baseball, so I am very late to the party.  For the most part, I am tired of the story and have nothing particularly insightful to add.  But there are pretty significant baseball implications here, so I feel the need to write a little bit about it.  Fortunately, I will be able to quickly bury this post with a much more interesting article (to me) coming in the next day or two.  In case you didn’t notice, there was a pretty big trade made before the deadline last week.  But first, here are some of my Biogenesis thoughts along with the impact the suspensions will have on the DTBL.

I have to admit that I was very skeptical of the entire Biogenesis story when it was made public earlier this year.  It seemed far too coincidental that many of the players being implicated in the story just happened to be most of the players who had tested positive for PEDs and/or served drug related suspensions last year.  As it turns out, there was a good reason for this.  All of these players were receiving their PEDs from the same source:  Tony Bosch and his Biogenesis clinic.  Many have stated that these suspensions and subsequent admissions of guilt are a black eye on the sport of baseball.  I don’t see it that way.  In fact, I think it is somewhat encouraging that most of the players suspended in the last year and a half had ties to this now defunct clinic.  This is not to say I believe PEDs have been completely eradicated from the league now that Biogenesis is no more.  But I believe these suspensions are a positive step towards cleaning up the game.  Cheaters are getting caught and punished.  That is more than could be said as recently as five years ago.  Also, while there is still plenty of room for improvement in the drug testing and punishment program, MLB is so far ahead of the other three major professional sports leagues in this regard, it isn’t even worth comparing.  That MLB seems to take far more heat than the NFL for having a PED problem is completely ridiculous.

To me, one of the most fascinating aspects of the Biogenesis scandal has been the way it has been covered by the media.  Not only the overwhelming number of articles on the topic, but the extent to which specific guilty players have been skewered as cheaters and liars.  They are indeed both of those things, but this isn’t new information.  Almost everyone besides die-hard Brewers fans and Aaron Rodgers knew Ryan Braun was guilty of taking PEDs when he avoided a suspension on a pure technicality following a failed drug test.  The fact that he is now admitting his guilt after accepting a 65 game suspension is not particularly interesting news, in my opinion.  He certainly owes a major apology to the sample handler whose character he attacked, among allegedly much worse things, as the Braun drama continues.  And the Brewers fans who have stuck by Braun throughout his career have every right to be angry.  But other than that, I don’t see Braun as much more of a villain than any of these other suspended players, past or present.  Almost all of these guys attempted to do whatever they could to avoid punishment, just as Braun did.  Heck, somewhat hilariously, Melky Cabrera tried to create an entire web site to prove his innocence.  But he seems to have been forgiven as he is now yesterday’s news.  Braun and Alex Rodriguez just happen to be the biggest names in this story, and are therefore receiving the most attention.

And then there is ARod and his pending 211 game suspension.  I am really curious to see what kind of dirt MLB has on him, because on the face of it, the largest drug related suspension in league history seems a bit harsh for a player who has not tested positive under the current drug testing regime.  I have no opinion on how much of a suspension he deserves without knowing exactly what he did, but again I state that almost all of these players have taken steps to try to duck the long arm of the law.  Just how serious ARod’s offenses were in comparison will be interesting to see.  I would hope the fact that pretty much everybody wants him to just go away, including his own employer, had no bearing on the decision to give him this unprecedented year and a half ban.  Just because everyone hates him isn’t enough of a reason to cast him out to sea.  But the willingness of the rest of these players to accept their punishments leads me to believe that MLB’s evidence is pretty solid.  So the ARod saga continues.

Now for the DTBL impact of Biogenesis.  Despite some huge names going down in this scandal, it doesn’t appear to be particularly likely to swing the DTBL title race in one direction or another.  Almost all of the suspended players happen to be on non-contending teams.  Losing Braun is just another major blow in a nightmare season for the Jackalope.  They will finish this season without the two main faces of their franchise (Braun and Albert Pujols, who was just ruled out for the season due to his foot injury).  The Moonshiners will be without the services of Jhonny Peralta, but they too are in the midst of a disappointing season.  Nelson Cruz will be out of the Gators lineup for 50 games.  The Gators currently sit in last place, but seem to be building a more competitive team for the future.  Losing Cruz won’t really change much.  Ditto for Everth Cabrera and the Demigods.  The one suspended player on a contending team is Jesus Montero of the Naturals.  However, he had been sent to AAA a couple months ago and didn’t figure to play much of a role down the stretch for the Naturals anyway.  Finally, Alex Rodriguez has been a free agent all season after the Kings finally cut him last winter.  Interestingly enough, there is a chance a DTBL team might take a flyer on him before the year is over since he is finally healthy and doesn’t figure to have his appeal ruled upon until very late in the season, if not after it.  Despite receiving the biggest punishment of any Biogenesis player, he may be the only one on a DTBL active roster in September.  Well, maybe Melky Cabrera (Gators) too since he did not receive any additional punishment having served his suspension last year.  Same for Yasmani Grandal (Naturals) , but he’s out for the year with a knee injury anyway.

To close things out, in regards to Biogensis, I am going to steal a line from The Band Perry:  All I want to be is done!

2013 Season Preview: Part III

Tuesday, April 2nd, 2013

Jackalope outfielder Giancarlo Stanton

Every MLB team has a game in the books now.  I don’t think we have learned anything we didn’t already know.  Good pitching tends to beat good hitting.  Pitchers usually have the edge early in the season, especially on the first couple days when the aces are on the hill.  Also, Clayton Kershaw and Bryce Harper are pretty good.  And as I’m writing this, some guy name Marwin Gonzalez just ended Yu Darvish’s perfect game bid with two outs in the bottom of the 9th.  Still, a decent Demigods debut for Mr. Darvish.

Now we’re getting to the heart of these 2013 season projections.  The top four contains the defending champions and three other teams that came within an eyelash of winning it all last year.  All four of these teams are likely to be in the hunt again this season.  Tonight, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish fourth and third place.  They happen to be the league’s last two champions.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (4th)
  • Home Runs – 8th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (2nd)
  • Wins – 10th (3rd)
  • Saves – 5th (2nd-T)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (2nd)
  • Total Points – 4th (1st)

Summary:

I hate to beat a dead horse, but here is yet another example of a team that should easily beat their projections in at least a couple categories, particularly the nearly impossible category to predict:  wins.  I would be shocked if David Price winds up as the only Naturals pitcher with more than 13 wins, which is the case in these ZiPS projections.  Matt Cain, Jordan Zimmerman, Zack Greinke and Price are going to team up for the third fewest wins in the league?  I don’t think so.  Their staff led them to the championship last year and are a decent bet to do the same this year.  What will be more interesting to follow is the progress of their offense.  With the obvious exception of Miguel Cabrera, several of the Naturals other top hitters underachieved a year ago.  Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Upton should cruise past their ’12 numbers.  Andrew McCutchen, a healthy Victor Martinez… this is a very impressive roster.  The Naturals hitting was the best in the league in 2011.  If they can combine their ’11 offense with their ’12 pitching, they will really be on to something.  And they certainly have the talent to do it.  Three teams better than this one?  We’ll see about that.

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (1st)
  • Wins – 8th (7th)
  • Saves – 8th (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (1st)
  • Total Points – 3rd (5th)

Summary:

The Jackalope were unable to defend their title last year mostly because their offense was a huge disappointment.  These projections are encouraging for them in that it appears they should expect to bounce back near the top of the league in most hitting categories.  Only by Albert Pujols’ lofty standards would his ’12 season be considered a disappointment, but that it was.  Expect him to return to being one of the top fantasy players in the league.  Maybe not THE top player though.  That honor might belong to Jackalope teammate Ryan Braun.  Giancarlo Stanton is vying to join that discussion too, although it will be interesting to see how much he gets to hit with Placido Polanco hitting behind him for the Marlins.  The Jackalope have been carried by a nearly unbeatable rotation the last few years.  But they may not be quite as strong this year.  There are serious concerns about Roy Halladay’s rapidly decreasing velocity.  Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee remain two of the most dependable pitchers in the game though.  One note on the Jackalope pitching projections.  They assumed Aroldis Chapman would be a starter this year.  It is debatable whether his return to the bullpen will be a net positive or negative for the Jackalope, but it certainly puts these rankings into question.  Regardless, the Jackalope have the hitting and pitching to compete for another title this year.

That leaves two.  You know who they are now.  But you’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see who are the projected 2013 DTBL champions.

No Clowning Around

Monday, March 11th, 2013

Darkhorses outfielder Bryce Harper

Who should the Darkhorses have picked with the first selection in the 2013 DTBL Draft?  That’s a clown question, bro.  With one of the clearest cut decisions in recent memory, the Darkhorses selected 20 year old outfielder Bryce Harper.  The Nationals young phenom burst onto the scene last summer at the ripe age of 19 and proceeded to win the National League Rookie of the Year award.  He bounced back from a mid-summer slump to tear the league apart on his way to a .270 average with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases.  The home run total was the second most by a teenager in MLB history.

A year after most of the league made the mistake of allowing Mike Trout to slip to the second round, the Darkhorses ensured that the same wouldn’t happen this time around.  Of course, Harper has much higher expectations heading into this season than Trout did a year ago since he has a roster spot locked up and is even expected to hit third in the lineup for one of the top World Series contenders.  Although both are legitimate five tool players, Harper does have a slightly different skill set than Trout.  Harper is projected to be the bigger power threat while Trout has unmatched speed on the bases and in the outfield.  The sky is the limit for Harper, and his bust potential seems extremely low.

Harper is only the second player to become a first overall selection in both the MLB and DTBL drafts.  Alex Rodriguez is the other, which makes it interesting that Harper is entering the league at the exact same time as ARod’s 16 year career with the Kings is coming to an end.  I’m sure the Darkhorses would be happy to get at least a decade and a half of service out of Harper.  I’m 99% positive that Harper was the youngest player to ever be drafted by a DTBL team in the first round (maybe any round), an honor he held for less than 24 hours (more on that later).  The Darkhorses are looking to bounce back from two straight disappointing, injury-riddled seasons.  Harper has the potential to quickly accelerate the rebuilding process, much like Trout did for the Mavericks a year ago.

Last year, the Gators had the tall order of trying to rebuild without the benefit of a first or second round pick.  This year, they held onto those picks and wisely used them to pick up a few of the best young players in the draft.  With the second overall pick, they selected Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes who made an immediate impact in his first big league season, hitting several prodigious home runs early in the season.  He somewhat quietly proceeded to have an outstanding season that surely would have earned him a Rookie of the Year nod if it weren’t for some guy named Trout.  Cespedes slugged 23 home runs with 82 RBI and 16 steals.  Like Harper, he has big time power potential with the ability to add a bunch of stolen bases too.

If Kris Medlen can come anywhere close to matching his 2012 numbers, the Cougars might suddenly have one of the league’s top pitching staffs.  Medlen, a Tommy John surgery survivor, started last season in the bullpen, but then became nearly unhittable after moving into the rotation.  He won 10 games with a miniscule 1.57 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP.  The Cougars selected him with the third pick in the draft.  The Demigods then followed with another starting pitcher, Yu Darvish.  Along with Cespedes, Darvish was the other key foreign import to the big leagues last season.  He displayed overpowering stuff, striking out 221 hitters in just 190 innings.  He should help the Demigods recover from a season that was largely derailed by a shaky pitching staff.  The Choppers took the Cubs young first baseman, Anthony Rizzo, with the fifth pick.  Rizzo had been a highly touted prospect for a number of years, before finally breaking through with a solid season for his third MLB organization.  Rizzo figures to be a centerpiece in the Cubs lineup for some time to come.

For the most part, the top five picks were fairly clear cut.  I know those five players were the top five on my draft board, and I suspect I’m not alone.  But I felt there was a significant drop-off in available talent after those five.  Which was kind of fitting because the next five teams all came within an eyelash of winning the championship last year anyway.

For the second straight year, the Jackalope were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie.  With the sixth pick, they took second baseman Danny Espinosa, who spent the last two seasons with the Kings.  Espinosa spent almost the entire ’12 season on the Kings bench, but only because he was at a log jammed position.  He actually had a very solid year and provides significant power and speed for a middle infielder.  He seems to be getting better each year too.  Next, the Moonshiners selected closer Fernando Rodney, the obvious #1 relief pitcher on the board.  Rodney re-emerged as an elite closer for the Rays, saving 48 games with a ridiculous 0.60 ERA.  Seventh is the earliest a relief pitcher has been selected since 2010.  But the Moonshiners were in desperate need of a second closer and only had two picks in the first rounds with which to acquire one.

For the fourth straight years, the Mavericks had multiple first round picks.  This time, they didn’t acquire the second one until just before they were on the clock with the eighth pick.  They dealt one member of their stable of first basemen, Ike Davis, to the Kings for the ninth overall pick.  So with two consecutive picks, the Mavericks did what has become their trademark:  they selected two young prospects, second baseman Jurickson Profar and third baseman Manny Machado.  Both have big upside, but Machado figures to make a more immediate impact since Profar is temporarily without a position in Texas, behind Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler.  Of course, this is a similar situation that Mike Trout was in a year ago.  Profar just turned 20 a few weeks ago, which is notable for a couple reasons.  First, I believe it makes him the youngest player in DTBL history (he’s a few months younger than Harper).  Next, he is the first DTBL player to have been born after the inaugural DTBL Draft in January of 1993.  So he’s actually younger than this league!  (Damn, we’re getting old)

For the second straight year, the Kings used the first round to try to fill their gaping hole at first base.  But this time, they did so by trading their pick for Ike Davis.  Davis got off to a horrific start in 2012, due in part to his slow recovery from valley fever, which he contracted during spring training.  But he rebounded in the second half of the season and turned into one of the leading home run hitters after the break.  He finished the season with 32 bombs.  Finally, the Naturals used the last pick of the first round to re-acquire catcher Victor Martinez.  Martinez missed all of last season recovering from a torn ACL suffered over the previous winter.  The Naturals were clearly reluctant to let him go after holding him on the roster for the entire season.  However, when the opportunity came to pick him up again, they jumped all over it.  Although his catching days may be over, he will likely produce stellar numbers at a position that is extremely difficult to fill.

For the most part, there were few surprises in the first round.  And I honestly can’t criticize any of the picks.  The top five teams went with the best players available, while the second half of the round featured last year’s contenders fill holes and/or proceed with their successful draft strategies.

The pace of the draft has been great so far too.  We’re already into the fifth round at the four day mark, so I’d say we are well ahead of schedule.  Keep up the good work!

Close Only Counts In…

Tuesday, October 30th, 2012

Mavericks outfielder Jason Heyward

When a season ends like this year’s DTBL campaign did, there is always going to be a lot of second guessing.  One move here or there.  One umpiring or official scorer decision gone bad.  One unlucky bounce of the ball could have been the difference between a league championship and also-ran status for four different teams.  The Naturals won the DTBL Championship, but four other teams came oh so close.  Here’s a look back at 2012 for the Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners and Jackalope.

While a second place finish is always a little disappointing, it was a step in the right direction for the Kings.  This was their highest finish since 2007 and only the second time they were a legitimate title contender since their reign of championships ended in 2003.  Like the champion Naturals, the Kings went through a bit of a transformation this season, albeit in the opposite direction.  Previously a pitching dominated team, this year they led the league in batting points and failed to win the league primarily due to a disappointing pitching staff.  Their starting pitching was a mess most of the season with Justin Verlander being the only consistent performer.  A second half surge, led by Max Scherzer, nearly won the league for them though.  The offense was solid all season, but faded a bit due to a poor second half by Carlos Beltran and a late season injury to Carlos Gonzalez.  Robinson Cano was the steady hand throughout.  The Kings are going to have some very difficult roster decisions to make because they may have more keeper-worthy players than any other team.  In this year’s draft, we saw a bunch of ex-Demigods picked in the early rounds.  That could be the Kings next year.

For my money, the most interesting team in the league in 2012 was the Mavericks.  Their youth movement finally paid off in a big way.  Although they expected to be at least one more year away from being a serious contender, one move in particular shifted that time table way up.  What might some day go down as the biggest coup in league history, the Mavericks were able to steal Mike Trout in the second round of this year’s draft.  As I’ve mentioned before, I thought it was a huge reach at that point of the draft, but boy was I wrong.  Trout finished third in the league in hitting at .330, easily led the league in runs scored (128) and stolen bases (48) and hit 30 home runs.  He did all of this despite not making his DTBL debut until May.  He almost won the league for the Mavericks, though he did have some help.  Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Jones and Jason Heyward were some of the huge breakout stars for this club.  The pitching staff took a hit when Stephen Strasburg was shut down in September and they had no free agent signings remaining to replace him.  But Clayton Kershaw had another great season.  The Strasburg/Kerhsaw/Trout combination makes this one scary team for the foreseeable future.  Following two disappointing seasons, 2012 was just the beginning of the Mavericks resurgence.

The Moonshiners may have been the team that suffered the most disappointment in the final week of the season.  Early in the week, they appeared to be well positioned to win their first DTBL title.  But they wound up settling for fourth place, albeit just a point and a half out of first.  That is actually down a spot from their third place finish in 2011, though 2012 was clearly a better season for them.  They were the league’s most balanced team; the only team to finish with 30+ batting and pitching points.  They were third in the league in both sub-sets.  While they lacked huge seasons from anyone, especially on the offensive side of things, they had incredible depth.  Prince Fielder and David Wright led the offense.  Jared Weaver was probably their top pitcher over the course of the full season, but the key free agent signing of R.A. Dickey was also one of the biggest moves of the year.  Although the fourth place finish was disappointing, it may have been just as well that the Moonshiners finished a half point behind the Kings and Mavericks because they will now have the opportunity to pick before those two clubs in the draft.  One of the steadiest teams in the league, it seems like it will only be a matter of time before the Moonshiners break through with their first title.

Finally, we have the defending champions.  Dropping from first to fifth is obviously a huge disappointment for the Jackalope, but it wasn’t necessarily all that surprising.  Rarely are teams able to catch all the breaks two years in a row.  While the ’11 Jackalope cruised to the title thanks to an unbeatable pitching staff and virtually no significant injuries, the ’12 squad wasn’t so lucky.  They still managed to lead the league in pitching points, but the rotation led by Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Ian Kennedy just wasn’t as dominating as a year ago.  Lee was especially unlucky, not winning his first game until June despite pretty decent peripheral numbers.  But the real problem was the offense.  Ryan Howard missed the first half of the season and wasn’t particularly effective after he returned.  Several of their youngsters had disappointing seasons.  Albert Pujols wasn’t even close to his usual elite self.  The two bright spots were Ryan Braun and Giancarlo Stanton.  The rest of the offense is going to need some work in the offseason.  But expect the pitching to bounce back next year, which should keep them in the hunt once again.

The rest of the league has some work to do to catch these top five teams.  But history has shown that breakthrough seasons are likely again next year.  I will recap the disappointing 2012 season for the bottom five teams later this week.