We are just days away from the start of the 25th DTBL season. A quarter century doing this. I guess that means we’re getting old. Anyway, there will be time for nostalgia later. For now, it is time to start looking at what we might see in this upcoming season. Last season ended with the Kings winning the championship by just about the narrowest margin imaginable. The Demigods came painfully close to their first title while the Choppers and Mavericks were also in the race in the closing days of the season. It seems quite possible that we could have a thrilling finish again this year as a whole bunch of teams figure to be in contention. Which teams have the early edge? As has become custom, I have compiled projected stats for all the players and teams in the league and have used those numbers to create projected standings.
I have made a small change to these projections from previous years. But first, please check out this post from four years ago for a refresher on how these projections are created. Here is what has changed for 2017. Instead of simply using ZiPS projections (and Steamer for saves), I have decided to use FanGraphs’ Depth Charts Projections. These projections combine ZiPS and Steamer and then are adjusted by FanGraphs staffers based on expected playing time. I decided this set of numbers would be preferable to simply using ZiPS for a couple reasons. First, more input is generally better than less, so two separate systems are being used to create these numbers. Second, the playing time adjustments make sense to more accurately determine how much of an impact a player is likely to have this season. It is worth noting that this change will hurt players who figure to spend a chunk of the season in the minors, like Yoan Moncada, for example. Moncada’s Depth Charts projection is for 266 plate appearances whereas ZiPS has him at 650. There is virtually no chance Moncada will have 650 plate appearances this year. So I think Depth Charts paints a more accurate picture, but you are free to disagree. One last thing to note is that some of these playing time projections have changed as spring training has progressed. The numbers I am using were taken from just days before the start of the draft. So that is something to consider as well.
As we begin to dive into these team previews, keep in mind that these projections are nice, but almost certainly won’t come close to predicting the actual results of the 2017 season. Last year’s projections had the Kings finishing sixth and the Jackalope repeating as champions. That didn’t exactly happen. On the other hand, the projections did quite accurately predict that the Demigods and Choppers would be serious title contenders. So anyway, many grains of salt should be taken when digesting this information. I do believe it is an interesting way to preview the season without making any enemies by posting my personal predictions.
Without further ado, let’s get to the projections. Today, I will preview the teams projected to finish in the bottom three spots in the standings. These projections are especially harsh on the last place squad, but show room for improvement for the other two teams as well.
Greg’s Gators
Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)
- Batting Average – 9th (5th)
- Home Runs – 9th (7th)
- Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
- Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
- Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
- Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
- WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
- Wins – 10th (10th)
- Saves – 8th (8th)
- Strike Outs – 7th (9th)
- Total Batting Points – 10th (6th)
- Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
- Total Points – 10th (8th)
Summary:
The above numbers aren’t pretty, but one potential reason for optimism is that the Gators have easily exceeded offensive projections the past two years, so there may be something these systems don’t like about their hitters. They are clearly a speed first team, but they have a bunch of really good power hitters as well. Wil Myers and Jean Segura were the breakout stars last year. Corey Seager figures to take another step towards superstar status this season. Jose Ramirez is the top offensive newcomer and should fit in nicely as an outstanding hitter who can run too. I’m definitely taking the over on the batting projection. Pitching, on the other hand, has been the Gators’ sore spot for a while now. They do not have a truly dominant ace, although Jose Quintana could be one if he played for a different MLB team. If he were to get traded by the White Sox, that could be a huge gain for the Gators. Aaron Sanchez was tabbed with the third pick in the draft, so they are obviously counting on him to carry a heavy load. Jharel Cotton is a very intriguing addition to the rotation too. The bullpen features arguably the best closer in baseball in Zach Britton. However, he is currently the only guy in the pen expected to open the season as a closer. It will require vastly exceeding these projections for the Gators to put an end to their six year run in the bottom three of the standings. Interestingly enough though, the only time they have ever finished in last place was the very first year of this league, 1993, when there were only five teams. Can they avoid last place once again?
David’s Darkhorses
Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)
- Batting Average – 1st (4th)
- Home Runs – 10th (4th-T)
- Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
- Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
- Stolen Bases – 4th (2nd)
- Earned Run Average – 10th (5th)
- WHIP Ratio – 9th (6th)
- Wins – 9th (8th)
- Saves – 10th (9th)
- Strike Outs – 8th (8th)
- Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
- Total Pitching Points – 10th (7th)
- Total Points – 9th (5th)
Summary:
This feels like the weirdest projection we will see in this series, by far. Last year, the Darkhorses finished a respectable fifth place and had the best offense in the league. So how did they fall all the way to 9th here? I can’t really answer that. I even double-checked the numbers to make sure I didn’t screw up something. I like this team a lot, especially the bats. Bryce Harper is close to a lock to improve on his pedestrian numbers from last season. Maybe a step back from Daniel Murphy is to be expected, but newcomer Alex Bregman should easily make up for that. Christian Yelich and George Springer are also on the verge of greatness in my opinion, and interestingly enough, both will be moving to full time gigs in center field this year. There is a lot to like about the Darkhorses’ offense. The pitching staff is a far bigger question mark. Can Rick Porcello come close to matching his 2016 AL Cy Young campaign? Will youngsters Julio Urias and Tyler Glasnow flourish in the big leagues this season? There is significant upside in the rotation, but also a lot of unknowns. The bullpen isn’t great, but could be much more interesting if Hector Neris is rightfully given the Phillies closer job early in the season. They should easily exceed this saves projection. Overall, I think the Darkhorses could be a contender, despite what these numbers show. It will come down to how the young pitchers perform.
Mike’s Moonshiners
Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)
- Batting Average – 10th (10th)
- Home Runs – 2nd (8th)
- Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
- Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
- Stolen Bases – 6th (10th)
- Earned Run Average – 8th (6th)
- WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
- Wins – 2nd (4th-T)
- Saves – 2nd (2nd)
- Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
- Total Batting Points – 8th-T (10th)
- Total Pitching Points – 5th (5th)
- Total Points – 8th (7th)
Summary:
Like the other two teams in this article, the Moonshiners have a recent trend of exceeding expectations. Despite finishing 7th and being projected for 8th this year, there are actually a lot of positives here. As you will see when I post the full standings projections at the end of the series, the Moonshiners are actually expected to improve by more than 10 standings points from last year. It is just how they happened to shake out in comparison to other teams that pushed them down to 8th. It is pretty clear that the offense should be better this year, despite trading away two of their key veteran hitters: Kyle Seager and Ian Kinsler. Instead, they now have some significant young potential in guys like Gregory Polanco and Jonathan Villar. Villar alone will ensure they don’t finish anywhere near last in steals again. And there is a ton of power in the lineup too with guys like Brian Dozier, Khris Davis, Miguel Sano, Evan Gattis and Brad Miller. Batting average could be a problem, but they should see significant improvement in the other four hitting categories. The pitching staff will still be led by veterans Dallas Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke along with last year’s breakout sensation Kyle Hendricks. The Moonshiners seem to have a guy like that every year (Keuchel the year before), so who will it be this season? Perhaps Jon Gray or Robbie Ray. The bullpen is quite strong with the additions of the two best closers available in this draft: Edwin Diaz and Seung Hwan Oh. The Moonshiners have finished in 7th place four years in a row. Despite the projection of 8th, these numbers actually show a very strong likelihood of them taking a positive step forward this season.