Mavericks shortstop Elvis Andrus
Tonight, the Rays and Rangers will play a tiebreaker to determine the second AL Wild Card participant. By league rules, this game will count towards DTBL stats since it is an official MLB regular season game. That means we have one more day of drama remaining in the 2013 championship season. The Kings enter the night with a two point lead over the Mavericks. This isn’t quite like last year with five teams still in the mix with a full slate of games on the final day, but it still should be very interesting. I will write occasional updates throughout the game, updating you on category point changes that may or may not occur, which could ultimately swing the title.
Although the Kings are in pretty good shape, this thing is far from over. Before we get this game started, here are some categories that are still in play for the Kings to lose points or the Mavericks to gain points. By my calculations, there are four categories to watch: runs, stolen bases, ERA and wins.
Runs is the category I’ve been focused on all week since the Mavericks have had an opportunity to catch the Kings for an immediate two point swing. However, that is not looking very likely at the moment. The Mavs trail by four runs and have only Elvis Andrus playing tonight. It would be quite a feat for him to erase this deficit, especially since the Kings have their own player going tonight too in Ben Zobrist. So I’ll label this one as a remote possibility, but obviously would be a game changer if it happened. Stolen bases is very much in play tonight for both teams. The Kings are currently tied with the Moonshiners, so 1/2 point could easily be lost here, especially since the Moonshiners have a bunch of players in this game: Alex Rios, Ian Kinsler, Desmond Jennings and Matt Joyce. Jennings is nursing a hamstring issue though, so he may not do much running tonight. Rios and Kinsler are certainly possibilities though. The Mavericks could also pick up half a point in SBs if Andrus steals two bases tonight. That’s not totally unrealistic. ERA is probably the most likely category for the Kings to lose a point. They just passed the Naturals yesterday to increase their overall lead by a point, but the Naturals could get that point back with David Price on the mound tonight, and possibly Jake McGee as well. By my calculations, Price and McGee need to allow two runs or fewer for the Kings to lose a point. If they give up zero or one, the Naturals will almost certainly pass the Kings. Two runs will require the Naturals pitchers to account for about eight innings of work. Three or more runs means the Kings point should be safe. Finally, there is only one win up for grabs tonight, but it could be big if it goes to a pitcher out of the bullpen. The Kings are currently tied with the Moonshiners, so if Moonshiners relievers Joe Nathan or Fernando Rodney (or Jeremy Hellickson since all hands figure to be on deck for this one) vulture another win, then the Kings would drop a half point. The Mavericks could also gain a half point in wins if they get a win out of this game. That’s not likely though since Alex Cobb and Matt Garza are two starters who aren’t likely to be used in relief tonight.
In my opinion, the Mavericks best chance at the title is for David Price to shut down the Rangers, costing the Kings a point in ERA, while Andrus grabs a pair of steals and one of the Moonshiners steals a base as well. The chances of all of these things happening? Probably not good. But after what we saw a year ago, and what I experienced just yesterday in another league I’m in (along with Marc and Nick), almost anything can happen. Check back throughout the night for updates. Enjoy the game!
8:30 pm EDT
Through one inning, the Kings continue to sit in good shape. Elvis Andrus walked, but was picked off, costing the Mavericks a shot at a much needed SB and R. I think we can rule out any change in the runs category tonight. So that leaves SB, ERA and W. Kings lead is 2 points. Rays lead the Rangers 1-0 through 1.
9:12 pm
It appears David Price is just going to go ahead and pick off every base runner that the Mavericks need to steal. This time it is the Moonshiners’ Ian Kinsler. Evan Longoria’s two run home run is irrelevant for the championship race, but did shift 1/2 point (RBI) from the Naturals to the Demigods. Kings still up two points through three innings.
9:42 pm
Price has now allowed just one earned run in five innings, which is enough to edge the Naturals ahead of the Kings in ERA. The Kings lead is down to just one point. But the other categories aren’t looking great for the Mavericks at the moment.
10:10 pm
Now things are getting interesting! Andrus singled, stole second and scored a run, opening up some possibilities for the Mavericks. They are now just one steal shy of gaining 1/2 point. However, the bad news for the Mavericks: the earned run allowed by Price has moved the Kings back ahead of the Naturals in ERA. The Kings lead is back to two points.
10:39 pm
Two innings to go and the Kings still lead by 2 points. The Mavericks need Price and/or McGee to pitch at least 2/3 of an inning without giving up a run to cost the Kings an ERA point. But where that second point will come from is not obvious. On a non-DTBL note, instant replay can’t get here quickly enough. The umpires botched a trapped ball which cost the Rays at least 1 run. 4-2 Rays after 7.
10:59 pm
Price gets through the eighth without allowing a run, so the Naturals are back ahead of the Kings in ERA again. The Kings lead is down 1. But the great play Price made to rob Andrus of a hit removed another steal possibility. It is starting to look like the Kings will win the title by one point, but we’re not quite done yet.
11:18 pm
For the third time in the last four years, the DTBL Championship has been won by a point or less. The Mavericks were unable to close the gap in any other category, so the Kings just lost the one point in ERA. Unless I have seriously overlooked something, the Kings are the 2013 DTBL Champions, besting the Mavericks by a single point. The official final standings will be updated at 8:20 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Thanks for following. Much more to come later this week.