DTBL News

For the third straight year, we’re going to preview the upcoming DTBL season by using player stat projections to determine the projected order of finish.  These are NOT my personal predictions, so don’t hold it against me if I have your team projected much lower than you expect.  For a primer, I recommend reading the first part of last year’s preview, where I explained the methodology for the projections.  I did it exactly the same way this year.  ZiPS projections were used for all categories, except for saves, where Steamer projections were utilized instead.

Here’s the cliff-notes version.  I used the projected stats for all players on each DTBL teams roster (post-draft) to compute team totals in all ten categories.  Because I don’t want to make any guesses on how you plan on utilizing your extra players, all 28 players are included, even those who you may plan on keeping in the minors all year.  Actually, that’s not quite true.  I decided to exclude the handful of pitchers who have recently undergone Tommy John surgery.  I didn’t think it made much sense to include players who probably won’t play this year.

Multipliers were used to normalize the stats so that the totals are based on approximately 14 full seasons from hitters and 9 from pitchers.  So, while your bench players are included in the projections, the team totals are adjusted depending on how many hitters or pitchers are on your roster.  It should be pointed out that my method does unnecessarily penalize teams who plan to use an extra starting pitcher in a relief pitcher’s slot.  Those teams should be expected to exceed the projected totals in wins and strikeouts since they are likely to exceed the IP totals of the rest of the teams.  So keep that in mind.

If you are wondering if these projections are even remotely worthwhile, keep in mind that last year’s projections turned out to be quite accurate.  They correctly predicted the top two teams, albeit in the wrong order.  They also identified the Cougars as the team that would take a big step forward, which they did, as well as the Moonshiners going in the opposite direction.  Eight of the ten teams finished within two spots of their predicted slot.  By no means am I suggesting that the teams at the bottom of these projections should give up before the season starts.  But this should give you a pretty good idea of the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team heading into the season.  I will try to point out instances where I don’t trust the projections for certain teams though.

On to part one of our season preview.  These are the three teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.  We’ll start at the very bottom and work our way up.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

• Batting Average – 8th (9th)
• Home Runs – 9th (5th)
• Runs Batted In – 10th (8th)
• Runs Scored – 5th (6th)
• Stolen Bases – 5th (3rd-T)
• Earned Run Average – 10th (9th)
• WHIP Ratio – 10th (8th)
• Wins – 7th (1st-T)
• Saves – 5th (7th)
• Strike Outs – 10th (7th)
• Total Batting Points – 9th (7th-T)
• Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th)
• Total Points – 10th (7th)

Summary:

Just two years ago, the Moonshiners finished 1 1/2 points away from winning their first league title.  Last year, they had a hugely disappointing year, falling to 7th place.  If these projections are to be believed though, this season will be even worse.  The Moonshiners biggest problem is their starting pitching.  If you glance at ESPN’s SP player rater from last season, not one of the top 25 pitchers are on the Moonshiners roster.  So they lack a true ace who can carry them in most of the pitching categories.  The good news is they will have the benefit of a sixth starting pitcher with Drew Smyly occupying a bullpen spot.  A big year from him would give them a huge boost.  The offensive projections aren’t great either.  They seem to have solid players across the roster, but like the rotation, they don’t have a ton of high volume stat producers.  The Moonshiners have never finished worse than 7th place and have been a consistent contender.  The key for them to avoid their worst season ever will be to have a few guys break out and become stars and for Prince Fielder to return to being one of the elite power hitters in his new hitter friendly environment in Texas.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

• Batting Average – 4th (5th)
• Home Runs – 10th (9th)
• Runs Batted In – 9th (10th)
• Runs Scored – 9th (8th)
• Stolen Bases – 1st (2nd)
• Earned Run Average – 9th (10th)
• WHIP Ratio – 7th (6th)
• Wins – 10th (10th)
• Saves – 2nd (3rd)
• Strike Outs – 8th (9th)
• Total Batting Points – 6th (9th)
• Total Pitching Points – 9th (9th)
• Total Points – 9th (9th)

Summary:

Well, no other team in these projections looks as similar to their 2013 results as the Gators.  In every single category, they are projected to finish within one spot of where they were last year.  This is somewhat surprising because they are a much younger squad now.  Gone is Gator lifer Derek Jeter.  And in are Wil Myers, Matt Adams, Michael Wacha and some other young stars in the making.  They now have one of the better core of young players in the league that also includes guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Jean Segura.  They do have a few weak spots and a very unproven rotation, which leads to a projected finish near the bottom of the league.  Two categories they don’t have to worry about are stolen bases and saves.  They have plenty of speed and possibly the best bullpen in the league.  If a couple of the young starting pitchers pan out, the Gators could easily have their best season in many, many years.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

• Batting Average – 9th (8th)
• Home Runs – 5th (1st)
• Runs Batted In – 8th (1st)
• Runs Scored – 6th (3rd)
• Stolen Bases – 7th (10th)
• Earned Run Average – 7th (3rd)
• WHIP Ratio – 8th (5th)
• Wins – 5th (3rd)
• Saves – 10th (1st)
• Strike Outs – 3rd (6th)
• Total Batting Points – 7th (3rd-T)
• Total Pitching Points – 8th (2nd)
• Total Points – 8th (3rd)

Summary:

Now we come to easily the most surprising projection of all, and the one for which I am the most suspicious.  The Choppers were the breakout team of 2013, finishing in third place.  They were a title contender until late in the season.  So what gives?  The projections show them taking a huge step backwards in both hitting and pitching.  Last year, they led the league in home runs and RBI, but are expected to finish 5th and 8th respectively this year.  It’s true they didn’t really add any sluggers in the draft, but that still seems like an odd fall from the top of the power categories.  Healthier years from Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson, plus Mark Trumbo moving to the thin air of Arizona should keep them in the top half of the league in those categories.  The pitching staff will be interesting to watch.  Chris Sale was the shining star last year.  Alex Cobb is the newcomer to the rotation.  The one category drop which totally makes sense is saves.  The Choppers will not win that category again this year.  But they have plenty of potential closers who should keep them out of the basement.  In summary, I’m going to bet the over on this Choppers projection.

This entry was posted on Sunday, March 23rd, 2014 at 9:09 pm and is filed under Choppers, Gators, Moonshiners. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.