In the second part of our 2015 DTBL season preview, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish in fifth through seventh place in the standings. But as I hinted at in the first part, this year’s projected standings show very little gap between teams, making the actual predicted place of finish of little consequence. In particular, very little seems to separate these teams in the middle of the pack. I’m not going to post the full projected standings until I finish all of the previews, but here’s a little bit of an idea of what it looks like: only six points separate the third through seventh place teams. So these teams just need to exceed the projections by a point or two here or there to move right into the championship hunt. The three teams we’ll examine today all appear to be very strong in one half of the game (batting/pitching) but not so much in the other. For one of these teams, this predicted landing spot would be a nice improvement over last year, while for another it would be a colossal disappointment. We actually have a projected tie for sixth and seventh place, so let’s take a look at those teams now.
Jay’s Jackalope
Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)
- Batting Average – 3rd (5th)
- Home Runs – 2nd (4th-T)
- Runs Batted In – 1st (5th)
- Runs Scored – 1st (5th)
- Stolen Bases – 6th (9th)
- Earned Run Average – 9th (2nd)
- WHIP Ratio – 8th (3rd)
- Wins – 7th (6th-T)
- Saves – 10th (9th)
- Strike Outs – 9th (4th)
- Total Batting Points – 1st (6th)
- Total Pitching Points – 10th (4th)
- Total Points – 6th-T (5th)
Summary:
No team has transformed itself more since the end of last season than the Jackalope. And boy is that change evident in these projections. For years, the Jackalope have fielded one of the best pitching staffs in the league. On offense, they have been up and down, which has been reflected in their place in the standings each year. But they have made a philosophical adjustment to build their team around more predictable and durable hitters instead of pitchers with limited shelf lives. Gone are their best starting and relief pitchers, Felix Hernandez and Aroldis Chapman. In are Anthony Rendon, Adam Jones and a crew of younger pitchers. Amazingly, the Jackalope are projected to improve in all five offensive categories and take a step backwards in all five pitching categories. The end result is a predicted finish of sixth, down a spot from last year. But I think the Jackalope are okay with this. They’ll take their chances with Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole possibly becoming the next great Jackalope pitchers. Short term, they have some injury concerns that could make things difficult early in the season. Another young pitcher, Zack Wheeler, is already out for the season following Tommy John surgery, which happened not long after they drafted him. Rendon’s knee injury shortly after they traded for him is also a cause for concern. But if they can keep most of the rest of the roster healthy, they could have the best offense in the league and will be an exciting team to watch.
Nick’s Naturals
Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)
- Batting Average – 1st (1st)
- Home Runs – 4th (2nd)
- Runs Batted In – 5th (2nd)
- Runs Scored – 4th (1st)
- Stolen Bases – 2nd (2nd)
- Earned Run Average – 10th (3rd)
- WHIP Ratio – 10th (1st)
- Wins – 9th (5th)
- Saves – 4th (1st)
- Strike Outs – 7th (3rd)
- Total Batting Points – 2nd (1st)
- Total Pitching Points – 9th (2nd)
- Total Points – 6th-T (1st)
Summary:
Woah! I have a lot to say here. First, it is very interesting that the Jackalope and Naturals are projected to tie in the standings because they are built very similarly. Both look great on offense with questionable pitching. But hold on a second… the Naturals are the defending champions! How are they projected to fall all the way to a sixth place tie? It’s starting to look like my methodology has an inherent bias against the Naturals. Prior to winning the league last year, they were picked to finish tied for fifth. So obviously, this prediction isn’t a death knell for them. They have made some pretty significant changes for a defending champion though. Zack Greinke and Anthony Rendon are gone. They have also been hurt by position switches with Victor Martinez no longer being able to put up MVP caliber numbers from a catching slot and Rendon switching from 2B to 3B prior to being traded. But make no mistake, this is still a championship caliber team. Yasiel Puig is the most exciting addition. But they also drafted a ton of young players with bright futures. These projections really don’t care for their starting rotation, but you have to figure Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Richards and Drew Hutchison all have great chances to exceed these numbers. Another wild card is Aaron Sanchez, who will give the Naturals a sixth starting pitcher from a RP slot. So you should immediately expect them to beat these win and strikeout predictions. If Sanchez doesn’t kill the ERA/WHIP, it is hard to imagine them finishing last in both of those categories too. On offense, a team with Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki is nearly a lock to be one of the best squads in the league. I am betting WAY over a 6th place tie for the Naturals. A repeat championship is more likely than them finishing here.
Kelly’s Cougars
Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)
- Batting Average – 8th (10th)
- Home Runs – 8th (10th)
- Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
- Runs Scored – 6th (10th)
- Stolen Bases – 8th (10th)
- Earned Run Average – 3rd (5th)
- WHIP Ratio – 3rd (5th)
- Wins – 1st (3rd)
- Saves – 5th (6th-T)
- Strike Outs – 3rd (8th)
- Total Batting Points – 8th (10th)
- Total Pitching Points – 3rd (6th)
- Total Points – 5th (10th)
Summary:
The last team in this section is basically the polar opposite of the two above. The Cougars have very good pitching with suspect bats. In fact, the offense was so bad last year that they finished dead last in all five hitting categories, which torpedoed their season. I feel like I say this every year, but the Cougars probably have the most underrated pitching staff in the league. That appears to be the case again this year. So with an improved offense, it would not be unreasonable to predict them to jump from last place to the top half of the league. The main reason for optimism with the offense is the addition of Jose Abreu with the first pick in the draft. Immediately, he becomes their best offensive player and could single-handedly make sure they don’t finish last in all of the offensive categories again, if he is able to come close to repeating his impressive rookie season. Their first four picks were all hitters, so Abreu won’t be asked to burden all of the load. The pitching staff is still the strength though. Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner lead the charge, but Gio Gonzalez, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chris Archer are pretty good too. And newcomers Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers provide impressive rotation depth. The bullpen is solid too with closers David Robertson, Drew Storen and Jake McGee who add a lot in other categories in addition to saves. A fifth place finish would be a nice improvement for the Cougars and seems very possible.