The 2015 baseball season is almost upon us, so it is time to take a look inside the crystal ball to see how this season will turn out. Actually, there may be no need for that. Back to the Future II already has this covered. As foretold in that movie, the Cubs will end their 107 year championship drought by winning the 2015 World Series. Of course, the movie depicted Miami as the World Series losers, so one can only assume the Marlins will get shipped to the AL at some point this season as Commissioner Manfred’s first highly controversial decision in office. But since the movie didn’t touch on results from random fantasy leagues, I will once again preview the upcoming DTBL season using a set of stat projections.
Check out my post from two years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections. Nothing has changed here. Once again, I’m using ZiPS projections for all stat categories except saves (Steamer). Stat projections for all 28 players currently on each team’s roster are used, except for a couple of cases where a player has already been ruled out for the season with an injury. While all players are included, the team totals are scaled to match the regular roster size of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. So even your late round draft picks who you may hope to leave on the bench all season do play a role in these projections.
Two years ago, the projections wound up providing a very accurate picture of how the season would play out, with most teams closely meeting their predicted place of finish. Last year, not so much. The Kings were projected to repeat as champions, but instead needed a late season rally to avoid finishing dead last. Meanwhile, the team that actually won the league, the Naturals, were projected to finish tied for fifth. So take all of this with several huge grains of salt. It should provide an interesting look at the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team though. Without further ado, here are the three teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings this year.
Greg’s Gators
Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)
- Batting Average – 5th (9th)
- Home Runs – 10th (8th)
- Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
- Runs Scored – 10th (9th)
- Stolen Bases – 1st (6th)
- Earned Run Average – 8th (7th)
- WHIP Ratio – 7th (7th)
- Wins – 10th (9th)
- Saves – 2nd (3rd)
- Strike Outs – 10th (10th)
- Total Batting Points – 7th (9th)
- Total Pitching Points – 8th (8th)
- Total Points – 10th (9th)
Summary:
Well, somebody has to be last. One thing I should point out is that the stat projections have all of these teams at the bottom finishing with far more points than they accumulated last year, with a much smaller gap between the top and bottom teams. So the Gators aren’t really as far from being a contender as these projections might lead you to believe. They do have a similarly constructed squad to last year though. They are a team of speedsters with a strong bullpen. They lack power and do not have an obvious ace in their starting rotation. Michael Wacha and Alex Wood are a pair of guys who could assume that role this year though. Perhaps the player they will count on above all others to exceed this projection is last year’s first round pick, Wil Myers. Myers had a disappointing DTBL rookie campaign and will look to legitimize his spot on the roster this year. This is a very young team so there are plenty of breakout candidates. Clearly, they are going to need several guys to do so, particularly in the power categories, to become a contender. While the bullpen is a strength, that saves projection may be a little generous since Steamer has free agent Rafael Soriano pegged at 21 saves.
Mike’s Moonshiners
Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)
- Batting Average – 10th (8th)
- Home Runs – 9th (7th)
- Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
- Runs Scored – 5th (8th)
- Stolen Bases – 10th (5th)
- Earned Run Average – 4th (9th)
- WHIP Ratio – 5th (10th)
- Wins – 8th (6th-T)
- Saves – 8th (2nd)
- Strike Outs – 5th (6th)
- Total Batting Points – 10th (8th)
- Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (7th)
- Total Points – 9th (7th)
Summary:
The Moonshiners are one of several teams that attempted to reshape their roster through big March trades. For years, they have been a little short of a championship contender, largely because they lacked ace pitchers who could carry the staff to the top of the standings in most pitching categories. But now they have Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, two of the best pitchers in baseball. Not surprisingly, their pitching projections are much stronger this year as a result. However, the overall prediction is not great because the offense appears to have taken a step backwards, and the offense wasn’t great as it was. Gone is Josh Donaldson, who was one of their few bright spots a year ago. But a healthy Prince Fielder could be just what the doctor ordered. Rookie Jorge Soler will be asked to provide an immediate power boost as well. On the pitching side, the projections are so-so for a much improved staff. But if the offense is at least a little better than predicted, Hernandez and Greinke could help lead the Moonshiners back into contention.
Kevin’s Kings
Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)
- Batting Average – 4th (3rd)
- Home Runs – 6th (9th)
- Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
- Runs Scored – 9th (7th)
- Stolen Bases – 4th-T (1st)
- Earned Run Average – 7th (10th)
- WHIP Ratio – 4th (8th)
- Wins – 2nd (10th)
- Saves – 9th (4th)
- Strike Outs – 8th (7th)
- Total Batting Points – 6th (5th)
- Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (9th)
- Total Points – 8th (6th)
Summary:
The last three years, the projections have loved the Kings. But then last season happened and the entire narrative of this franchise changed. No longer are they a powerhouse with a bunch of the best players in the league. Now they are a squad with aging stars and very little to hang their hats on. To be fair, part of the reason why they do not project well this year is because so many of their players are coming off injury plagued seasons. As a result, those players are projected to play less than full seasons again this year. And that causes the full team projection to come in with far fewer total at bats than any other team. Presumably, even if those players don’t stay healthy, they will be replaced by guys who are. So the Kings offensive counting stat projections may be a little low. Nonetheless, they do not look like a contender this year. But they do have a couple very interesting young players who could be part of future Kings’ contending squads. Their first two draft picks, outfielders Mookie Betts and Gregory Polanco, have a ton of upside. The pitching staff is a major question mark with Max Scherzer being the only dependable pitcher on the squad. This could be a bit of a transition year for the Kings, but it is hard to imagine them suffering through injuries to the extent they did in ’14. 8th place would be a pretty disappointing finish for them.