DTBL News

Category: Moonshiners

  • A Family Affair

    Embed from Getty Images
    Trivia time!  What do Fernando Tatis, Vladimir Guerrero, Dante Bichette and Craig Biggio all have in common?  If you guessed that they all hit at least .290 with 15+ home runs for their respective DTBL teams in 1999, you are correct!  Oh, and they also all have sons who were selected in the first 15 picks of the 2020 DTBL Draft.  This league has been around long enough that we had already seen a few sons of former DTBL players become second generation league members.  But in the previous instances, the fathers only had a cup of coffee in this league at the tail end of their careers.  This four-some is different.  All four compiled multiple strong seasons in the league and all but Tatis were among the league’s best players in its first 10-15 years.

    Interestingly, it is the least accomplished father of those four whose son enters the league with the highest acclaim.  The Demigods selected the do-it-all shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. with the first pick in the draft.  Tatis hit .317 with 22 homers and 16 stolen bases in a MLB rookie campaign that was cut short by injury.  Provided he has a full year of solid health in 2020, it isn’t unreasonable to think he could be the second straight #1 draft pick to post a 30/30 season in his DTBL rookie year.  The Demigods will turn to Tatis to help put their miserable 2019 behind them.  Keep in mind that prior to last year, this is a team that finished in the top half of the standings in five straight seasons.  Tatis has the talent to lift them back up to their recent historic norms.

    While Tatis was spectacular last year, he probably wouldn’t have won the NL Rookie of the Year award even if he had stayed healthy.  Not with Pete Alonso breaking the MLB all-time rookie record for home runs.  Alonso slugged 53 homers, which would have led the DTBL by four had he been in the league a year ago.  His 120 RBIs would have been fourth best in the league.  He was worthy of the second overall pick in the draft on his own merit, but he also happens to be an ideal fit for the Choppers who finished next to last in home runs and RBIs and dead last in total batting points a year ago.  This is the third straight year the Choppers have used their first pick on an infielder.  Alonso figures to have the biggest impact of them all.

    The Komodos made it consecutive 2019 MLB Rookie of the Year winners when they selected Astros outfielder/DH Yordan Alvarez with the third pick.  Alvarez crashed the AL rookie party that was supposed to be all about a couple guys that will be covered below.  He hit .317 with 27 home runs and 78 RBIs despite not making his debut until June.  Had he been in the majors from the jump like Alonso, perhaps he too could have challenged the rookie home run record.  Alvarez is currently sidelined with a knee issue.  But assuming that doesn’t keep him out of action too long, he figures to be one of the league’s top sluggers.  He will join Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Nelson Cruz and Jose Ramirez to form what could be a sneaky great Komodos offense.

    Sneaky great is also an appropriate way of describing Keston Hiura’s young MLB career.  The Jackalope tabbed the Brewers second baseman with the fourth pick.  In 84 games, Hiura managed to hit .303 with 19 homers and nine stolen bases.  Extrapolate those numbers out to a full season and you could have the makings of a stud at a very weak offensive position.  The Jackalope have had one of the league’s best infields for a while now, but Hiura injects it with a needed shot of youth.  The spring is not off to a great start from a health perspective for the Jackalope.  Hiura could help cure much of what ails them, however.

    Only one player selected in the first round won’t be making his DTBL debut this season.  Lucas Giolito was signed as a free agent by the Mavericks late in the 2017 season and was subsequently released prior to 2018, when the Mavericks picked him up again in the seventh round of the draft.  But he was released again by the Mavericks that May and had such a poor season that he got dropped from the league last year.  2019 Giolito was basically a brand new pitcher, making the All-Star team and compiling a Cy Young campaign resume.  The pitcher the Cougars drafted with the fifth pick this year really doesn’t resemble the one who pitched for the Mavericks.  In ’19, Giolito posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, won 14 games and struck out an impressive 228 batters in 177 innings.  The Cougars pitching staff prevented them from being serious contenders a year ago.  Giolito could help change that.

    A year ago, it seemed like a near certainty that I would be writing about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being the first player taken in the 2020 draft.  Not that some of these other guys weren’t highly touted prospects, but Guerrero was at a different level.  His MLB debut became a must-see event, unlike any player I can recall since Bryce Harper.  That incredible, and probably unfair, level of hype made his 2019 season seem a little underwhelming.  He hit .272 with “only” 15 homers.  Here’s another number that is equally relevant though:  21.  That’s the age Guerrero will turn next week.  What Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto have done in their teens/very early 20s just isn’t normal.  Struggling to get your footing in the big leagues like Guerrero did *is* normal.  I have it on good authority that the Moonshiners were shocked and thrilled to grab him with the sixth pick in this draft.  If Vladito does in fact reach his potential, we’ll all look back on this pick and wonder how it came to be.

    The Mavericks were also probably quite surprised about the availability of their first round pick.  They selected slugging outfielder Eloy Jimenez with the seventh pick.  Much of what I wrote about Guerrero applies to Jimenez as well, although he is a little older and did wind up posting pretty solid numbers thanks to a strong finish to the 2019 season.  31 home runs and 79 RBIs are impressive totals for a rookie and could be viewed as the floor of what to expect from here on out.  He seems a good bet to improve on the .267 average too.  Assuming good health, the Mavericks outfield is absolutely ridiculous.  Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Nick Castellanos and now Jimenez.  The rest of the roster ain’t too shabby either.

    The Beanballers first official selection as a member of the DTBL was another flashy young shortstop who is the son of a former DTBL player, Bo Bichette.  Bichette has the fewest big league games under his belt of this first round group, but he made his short stint in the big leagues count.  In just 46 games, he hit .311 with 11 homers.  While not directly fantasy relevant, he also had 18 doubles.  So the extra base power appears to be legit.  With a new league member, it is hard to predict what the draft strategy might be.  In this case, it looks like the Beanballers went with the best young talent available, because shortstop was not a position of need with Trea Turner and Amed Rosario already on the roster.  You can’t go wrong with a middle infielder with huge upside though.  Bichette joins a roster with plenty of talent, so it will be interesting to see how the Beanballers do on their maiden voyage.

    Seven of the first eight selections were hitters.  We finally saw a rookie pitcher go off the board when the Darkhorses selected Chris Paddack at #9.  While still at the very beginning of his career, Paddack already has an advanced repertoire, which he used to compile some gaudy numbers in 2019.  His sub 1.00 WHIP and 3.33 ERA were pretty incredible for a first season in the majors.  This selection made all the sense in the world for the Darkhorses, who have fallen a little short of the champion Kings the past two seasons because they didn’t have quite enough pitching.  Paddack will join Jacob deGrom, Patrick Corbin and Jose Berrios in a rotation that seems quite capable of closing that gap and claiming their first DTBL title in 10 years.

    The Kings probably would have drafted any of the nine players selected ahead of them if they had fallen to the last slot in the first round.  Instead, they settled for a pitcher with very intriguing stuff, but also one who missed half of the 2019 campaign with a PED suspension.  Athletics hurler Frankie Montas was the final pick of the first round of the 2020 DTBL Draft.  Before the suspension, Montas was electric.  He struck out more than a batter per inning with a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  While starting pitching has been the Kings strength in their recent championship runs, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer aren’t getting any younger.  So they will turn to Montas as a potential ace in waiting.  In the meantime, he will join those guys in a rather formidable rotation.

    A quick note on one second round selection referenced up top:  the Cougars selected second baseman Cavan Biggio with the 15th overall pick.  This connection is intriguing since Cavan’s father Craig was also a second baseman on the first two Cougars championship squads and was an all-time great for both the Cougars and Choppers.

    After a bit of a slow start, we’ve hit our stride the past few days and are now on a great pace.  We should have plenty of time between the conclusion of the draft and Opening Day.  Keep up the good work!

  • DTBL Best of the Decade

    Embed from Getty Images The 2010s marked a decisive change from the first decade of this millennium in the DTBL.  The previous decade saw two teams dominate the landscape with the Kings opening it up with four straight titles from 2000-2003 and the Darkhorses doing the same from 2007-2010.  This decade, half of the franchises won at least one championship and only the 2019 Kings were able to successfully defend a title.  The 2010s started with arguably the craziest season in league history as the Darkhorses and Naturals became the first co-champions.  Two years later, the Naturals were involved in another epic finish as they just barely edged out three other teams to win another title.  The second half of the decade belonged to the Kings, as they have now won three of the past four championships.

    As we enter a new decade, it is time to take a look back at the past 10 years in the DTBL.  Here are some of the best teams and players of the 2010s.

    Franchise of the Decade:  Kevin's Kings

    It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Kings in the 2010s.  In 2013, they were able to put an end to their ten year title drought, barely edging out the Mavericks for the fifth championship in franchise history.  The remainder of the decade was pretty crazy for them.  Three times, they finished in the bottom half of the standings, including a dreadful last place finish in 2015 and a ninth place finish in 2017.  But they somehow managed to turn each of those poor years into a championship run the following year.  All told, they won four championships in the decade, the most of any franchise.  They weren't the most consistent franchise, but titles are what matter most and nobody had more of them than the Kings.  The clear second choice for this honor would be the Naturals who won three titles, all coming in the same years the Giants won the World Series (2010, 2012, 2014).

    Team of the Decade:  2015 Jay's Jackalope

    The Jackalope made their championships count.  Both of their title winning seasons were among the most impressive this league has ever seen.  It is difficult to compare teams from different seasons since so much of fantasy success is relative to the competition.  So simply going with the team with the most standings points doesn't necessarily make them better than title winning teams from other years.  What sets apart the 2015 Jackalope, and their 2011 squad too for that matter, was the manner in which they dominated the rest of the league.  They won the league by a record breaking 19 points over the Mavericks.  The Jackalope offense was led by MVP winner Josh Donaldson and runner-up Paul Goldschmidt.  Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta led the pitching staff and won both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, giving the Jackalope a clean sweep of the three major awards.  The year started with the Jackalope making some major March trades, dealing away franchise icons Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke.  But in return, they acquired Josh Donaldson, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, all of whom continue to reap benefits for them today.  It was one of the most impressive roster shake-ups we've ever seen.  Honorable mention in this category could go to a bunch of different teams.  Certainly the 2011 Jackalope who also won the league by double digits, the 2014 Naturals who set the record for most total points (89), the 2019 Kings who successfully defended their title with a much stronger season in the follow-up, and the 2017 Mavericks who finally cashed in a championship to go along with their historically dominant pitching staff for much of the decade.

    Player of the Decade:  Mike Trout, Mavericks (2012-2019)

    This was about as easy of a decision as you will find.  Mike Trout has been in the DTBL for eight seasons now.  In all eight seasons he has made the All-Star team and received MVP votes.  Shockingly, he only has one MVP award to his name so far.  But he has finished in the top five of that vote six times, including each of his first five seasons.  He also won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012.  In the 2010s, he led all DTBL players in PAR (71.0) by more than 20 points.  His decade ranks in the five offensive categories:  .308 average (5th), 280 home runs (3rd), 736 runs batted in (14th), 882 runs scored (1st), 195 stolen bases (7th).  Keep in mind that many players had a two year head start over him in the counting categories.  In 2015, his worst season according to PAR, he hit .299 with 41 home runs.  A second round pick by the Mavericks in 2012, Trout holds the franchise career record in homers, runs and stolen bases and is second in RBI.  Nobody else really garnered any consideration for this honor, but let's just say Paul Goldschmidt was the runner-up.

    Pitcher of the Decade:  Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks (2010-2019)

    This was a pretty easy choice too, and yes, it is another Maverick.  In the 2010s, Clayton Kershaw won a pair of Cy Young awards, finished in the top four for that award seven straight years and made seven DTBL All-Star teams.  His numbers during the four year stretch of 2013-2016 were downright silly, posting ERAs below 2.00 in three of those years.  He won the Cy Young in 2013 and 2014 with ERAs of 1.83 and 1.77.  He posted a double digit PAR for seven straight seasons (2011-2017).  For the decade, his 2.30 ERA and 0.961 WHIP were easily the best among qualified starting pitchers.  His 154 wins ranked third as did his 2,131 strikeouts.  Somehow, the Mavericks nabbed him in the sixth round of the 2009 draft.  He is the franchise leader among starting pitchers in every relevant category.  Two other pitchers had similarly great decades:  the Kings veteran duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  But unlike those two, Kershaw was an elite performer for the entire decade.  Scherzer didn't really reach that level until 2013 and Verlander had some down years in the middle of the decade.

     

    Now let's move onto the All-Decade players.  I've selected 46 players and split them into first and second teams.  Unlike the honors I've bestowed above, these selections were mostly objective.  I went with the players who accumulated the highest PAR in the decade, with exceptions at two positions:  catcher and relief pitcher.  Because even some above average performers at those positions have trouble accumulating positive PAR, I didn't want to ding players for longevity in which some negative PAR years may have dragged their total down.  Also, I didn't want to reward a few closers who have had just a couple great years, enough to put them near the top of the PAR leaderboard.  So I looked at the full set of numbers to make my decisions at those two positions.  For players who changed positions throughout the course of the decade, they were classified at whichever position they appeared in the most seasons.  Without further ado, here are 46 of the best players from the 2010s.

     

    First Team All-Decade

    C - Victor Martinez (Naturals '10-'15, Mavericks '16, Kings '17):  .301 AVG, 115 HR, 504 RBI, 389 R, 5 SB, 10.8 PAR

    C - Buster Posey (Demigods '11-'19):  .302 AVG, 118 HR, 590 RBI, 521 R, 23 SB, 4.8 PAR

    1B - Paul Goldschmidt (Jackalope '12-'19):  .294 AVG, 235 HR, 781 RBI, 778 R, 123 SB, 51.0 PAR

    2B - Jose Altuve (Demigods '12-'19):  .316 AVG, 125 HR, 514 RBI, 693 R, 240 SB, 43.0 PAR

    3B - Nolan Arenado (Naturals '14-'19):  .298 AVG, 215 HR, 677 RBI, 574 R, 13 SB, 42.2 PAR

    SS - Francisco Lindor (Demigods '16-'19):  .284 AVG, 115 HR, 327 RBI, 423 R, 81 SB, 28.3 PAR

    1B/3B - Miguel Cabrera (Naturals '10-'18, Mavericks '19):  .317 AVG, 265 HR, 928 RBI, 783 R, 14 SB, 43.2 PAR

    2B/SS - Robinson Cano (Kings '10-'19):  .302 AVG, 227 HR, 851 RBI, 791 R, 34 SB, 38.4 PAR

    OF - Mike Trout (Mavericks '12-'19):  .308 AVG, 280 HR, 736 RBI, 882 R, 195 SB, 71.0 PAR

    OF - Nelson Cruz (Mavericks '10-'11, Gators '12-'17, Komodos '18-'19):  .283 AVG, 338 HR, 941 RBI, 761 R, 49 SB, 47.6 PAR

    OF - Mookie Betts (Kings '15-'19):  .302 AVG, 134 HR, 447 RBI, 575 R, 116 SB, 41.3 PAR

    OF - Andrew McCutchen (Naturals '10-'17, Choppers '18-'19):  .286 AVG, 219 HR, 763 RBI, 864 R, 165 SB, 40.7 PAR

    OF - Ryan Braun (Jackalope '10-'19):  .295 AVG, 236 HR, 796 RBI, 753 R, 164 SB, 40.3 PAR

    DH - Edwin Encarnacion (Jackalope '10, Naturals '11, Mavericks '12-'14, Darkhorses '15-'19):  .265 AVG, 307 HR, 883 RBI, 752 R, 39 SB, 42.3 PAR

    SP - Clayton Kershaw (Mavericks '10-'19):  2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 154 W, 0 SV, 2,131 K, 112.6 PAR

    SP - Max Scherzer (Jackalope '10, Kings '10-'19):  3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 155 W, 0 SV, 2,348 K, 98.3 PAR

    SP - Justin Verlander (Kings '10-'19):  3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 159 W, 0 SV, 2,210 K, 95.5 PAR

    SP - Zack Greinke (Jackalope '10, Naturals '11-'14, Moonshiners '15-'19):  3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 152 W, 0 SV, 1,852 K, 75.1 PAR

    SP - Chris Sale (Naturals '11, Choppers '12-'19):  3.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 102 W, 6 SV, 1,907 K, 68.9 PAR

    RP - Craig Kimbrel (Choppers '11-'19):  2.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 27 W, 344 SV, 855 K, 34.6 PAR

    RP - Kenley Jansen (Mavericks '11-'19):  2.35 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 29 W, 295 SV, 827 K, 32.1 PAR

    RP - Aroldis Chapman (Mavericks '11, '15-'17, Jackalope '12-'14, Komodos '18-'19):  2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27 W, 271 SV, 796 K, 27.2 PAR

    RP - Jonathan Papelbon (Kings '10-'15, Jackalope '15-'16):  2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 27 W, 217 SV, 462 K, 8.8 PAR

     

    Second Team All-Decade

    C - Yadier Molina (Choppers '10-'16, Cougars '17-'19):  .289 AVG, 120 HR, 645 RBI, 500 R, 53 SB, -0.1 PAR

    C - J.T. Realmuto (Darkhorses '16-'19):  .282 AVG, 73 HR, 266 RBI, 290 R, 32 SB, 5.6 PAR

    1B - Joey Votto (Naturals '10-'19):  .306 AVG, 229 HR, 745 RBI, 825 R, 66 SB, 38.2 PAR

    2B - Ian Kinsler (Moonshiners '10-'16, Jackalope '17-'18):  .268 AVG, 163 HR, 609 RBI, 835 R, 148 SB, 28.5 PAR

    3B - Adrian Beltre (Choppers '10-'18):  .307 AVG, 226 HR, 781 RBI, 691 R, 10 SB, 34.9 PAR

    SS - Trea Turner (Naturals '16-'19):  .292 AVG, 60 HR, 199 RBI, 306 R, 145 SB, 28.1 PAR

    1B/3B - Freddie Freeman (Demigods '12-'19):  .296 AVG, 199 HR, 698 RBI, 699 R, 39 SB, 36.2 PAR

    2B/SS - Brian Dozier (Moonshiners '14-'19):  .245 AVG, 157 HR, 437 RBI, 521 R, 77 SB, 22.2 PAR

    OF - Charlie Blackmon (Cougars '15-'19):  .309 AVG, 142 HR, 389 RBI, 561 R, 87 SB, 37.3 PAR

    OF - Bryce Harper (Darkhorses '13-'19):  .278 AVG, 197 HR, 576 RBI, 607 R, 70 SB, 35.1 PAR

    OF - Christian Yelich (Darkhorses '14-'19):  .304 AVG, 134 HR, 481 RBI, 550 R, 111 SB, 34.8 PAR

    OF - Giancarlo Stanton (Jackalope '11-'19):  .268 AVG, 278 HR, 701 RBI, 627 R, 36 SB, 34.4 PAR

    OF - Carlos Gonzalez (Kings '10-'17):  .293 AVG, 197 HR, 648 RBI, 638 R, 97 SB, 33.7 PAR

    DH - Albert Pujols (Jackalope '10-'14, Mavericks '15, '18, Choppers '16-'17, Darkhorses '18):  .272 AVG, 250 HR, 813 RBI, 630 R, 49 SB, 34.6 PAR

    SP - David Price (Naturals '10-'18, Komodos '19):  3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 134 W, 0 SV, 1,804 K, 62.4 PAR

    SP - Madison Bumgarner (Cougars '11-'19):  3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 111 W, 0 SV, 1,664 K, 59.9 PAR

    SP - Felix Hernandez (Jackalope '10-'14, '18, Moonshiners '15-'17):  3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 104 W, 0 SV, 1,595 K, 52.1 PAR

    SP - Jon Lester (Naturals '10-'12, Choppers '13-'19):  3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 144 W, 0 SV, 1,773 K, 51.0 PAR

    SP - Corey Kluber (Demigods '14-'19):  2.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 83 W, 0 SV, 1,238 K, 50.9 PAR

    RP - Francisco Rodriguez (Moonshiners '10-'11, Mavericks '12, Naturals '14, Kings '15-'17):  3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23 W, 181 SV, 407 K, 7.0 PAR

    RP - Greg Holland (Gators '12-'13, Naturals '13-'17, Komodos '18, Mavericks '19):  3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 W, 198 SV, 428 K, 4.5 PAR

    RP - David Robertson (Cougars '12-'19):  2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 31 W, 127 SV, 515 K, 8.1 PAR

    RP - Roberto Osuna (Moonshiners '16-'19):  2.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 13 W, 134 SV, 270 K, 13.8 PAR

     

    I thought about writing a short blurb for each player above, but decided that would take far too much time.  Here are a couple links to leaderboards for the decade, for your perusal:

    Batters

    Pitchers

    Feel free to chime in below if you feel some player(s) were snubbed.  What an amazing decade it was in the DTBL.  Here's to the 2020s being just as great.  Happy New Year!

  • 2019 Season Preview: Part III

    Embed from Getty Images Happy Opening Day Eve!  Yeah, there are already a couple games in the books, but things get started for real tomorrow.  I, for one, can not wait!  As we move into the top half of the projected standings, we've already seen a lot of surprises.  This third part of the preview series will cover a pair of teams that are similar in terms of projected strength in 2019, but are otherwise quite different in composition, strengths and weaknesses.  Finishing close in the standings wouldn't be all that strange though, considering they finished last season with identical point totals.  I'm leaving three teams for the final part of this series because these projections have those three comfortably ahead of the pair I'm about to cover.  Look for that sometime this weekend.  In the meantime, here are a couple teams projected to finish near the middle of the pack this season.

    Mike's Moonshiners

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 10th (10th)

    • Home Runs - 3rd (3rd)

    • Runs Batted In - 3rd (6th-T)

    • Runs Scored - 7th (8th)

    • Stolen Bases - 9th (9th)

    • Earned Run Average - 4th (3rd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (5th)

    • Wins - 6th (6th-T)

    • Saves - 1st (1st)

    • Strike Outs - 8th (5th)

    • Total Batting Points - 8th-T (8th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (4th)

    • Total Points - 5th (6th-T)

    Summary:

    Perhaps no team looks more like the 2018 version of itself than the Moonshiners.  These projections show them gaining a few points in RBIs, dropping a few in strikeouts, but otherwise staying almost exactly the same.  There is a pretty solid explanation for that.  The core of players who they will be counting on to carry them this season hasn't changed.  Several of their newest additions are future bets, like first round pick Shohei Ohtani, who will moonlight as a hitter this season before likely taking over as their staff ace next year.  One alarming issue the Moonshiners have heading into the season is a slew of injuries.  Most of those were known before these projections were generated though, so that in and of itself isn't a reason to doubt the projections.  Last year, the Moonshiners obliterated the league record for worst team batting average, hitting just .231, 18 points behind the next worst mark (also the Moonshiners, 2016).  They are projected to hit .252 this year, which is still worst in the league, but a huge improvement.  For a while now, they have lacked huge star power on the offense.  That still appears to be the case as Ohtani has the second highest batting PAR projection on the team, trailing only Khris Davis.  But Michael Conforto and Aaron Hicks are two underrated outfielders who could give them a nice boost this season.  The pitching staff is basically the same as last year.  It is a solid, yet unspectacular group.  All five likely members of their Opening Day rotation are above average pitchers:  Zack Greinke, German Marquez, Robbie Ray, Kyle Hendricks and Charlie Morton.  Marquez was the big surprise of the group last season as he was the first especially valuable Rockies pitcher in quite some time.  The bullpen is very good as well, currently projected to lead the league in saves.  Edwin Diaz will have a hard time duplicating his 57 saves from a year ago, but is still arguably the best closer in baseball.  Roberto Osuna is in the upper echelon as well.  The Moonshiners seem to be focused on building a solid core for the future, using early draft picks on payers like Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.  But they are in a position to contend should a few guys take big steps forward this season.

    Marc's Mavericks

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 2nd (3rd)

    • Home Runs - 1st (1st)

    • Runs Batted In - 1st (4th)

    • Runs Scored - 2nd (3rd)

    • Stolen Bases - 10th (2nd)

    • Earned Run Average - 6th (9th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (9th)

    • Wins - 8th (10th)

    • Saves - 10th (6th)

    • Strike Outs - 4th (10th)

    • Total Batting Points - 1st (2nd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 8th (10th)

    • Total Points - 4th (6th-T)

    Summary:

    This section requires a whole assortment of caveats.  In fact, I wouldn't pay much attention to the numbers above if I were you.  No team is harder to pin down on expectations for 2019.  Last season, the Mavericks pitching staff was absolutely ravaged by injuries.  Every one of their key starters missed significant time.  What was once the best pitching staff in the league, by far, wound up finishing dead last in pitching points in 2018.  In what I assume was an effort to avoid a repeat of that, the Mavericks have loaded their bench with pitching depth.  Their post-draft roster consisted of the minimum 14 batters and a league high 14 pitchers.  Since these projections take all 28 players into account, it is safe to assume that the pitching projections are hurt with more pitchers diluting the numbers of their best guys.  On the flip side, they have far less dilution of the offensive numbers compared to most teams.  So the overall point projection for the Mavericks is probably fair.  But I'd tack on a handful of pitching points and shave off a few from the batting side of the ledger.  One thing is certain:  the Mavericks will mash.  No team has a larger collection of superstar sluggers.  A draft day trade to acquire Juan Soto gives them an envious outfield trio of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge, all of whom could be MVP candidates.  The infield isn't bad either, especially with Manny Machado, Javy Baez and Ozzie Albies up the middle.  The only offensive weakness is stolen bases, where they are projected to finish last.  The Mavericks fortunes this season will come down to pitching.  As previously stated, the have a large stable of pitchers to turn to in the event that their starters can't stay healthy again.  But ideally, they will be able to turn to Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jack Flaherty to easily smash last year's numbers as well as these projections.  The bullpen is not the dominant force it used to be, but with Kenley Jansen and Jose Leclerc, I'd say there is a good chance they won't finish last in saves as they are projected here.  The Mavericks are looking to bounce back from their worst finish since 2011.  They have an excellent chance to do that.  But trying to use these projections to determine their fate may be a losing cause.

  • Acuna, Soto Highlight Round One

    Embed from Getty Images The first round of the DTBL Draft almost always features a crop of young up-and-coming stars.  But this year's group is especially notable for their youth.  Eight of the ten players selected in the first round are under 25 years old, including the first seven picks of the draft.  And two players, Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, are among the most accomplished players at their age to ever enter the league.  Acuna and Soto just turned 21 and 20 respectively over the offseason.  All ten first round selections are DTBL rookies.  A trade of two marquee players also highlighted an excellent start to the 2019 DTBL Draft.

    For the second straight year, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year was the first pick of the draft.  Ronald Acuna joins the Jackalope coming off a stellar rookie campaign.  He hit .293 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, flashing all of his plus tools.  The Braves outfielder became a star almost immediately upon promotion and helped lead his team to an unexpected division championship.  He could help the Jackalope make a similar jump in the standings this year.  The Jackalope offense was especially disappointing a year ago, but the pieces are still there to be one of the best teams in the league.  Acuna was a pretty clear choice here.

    Last year, the Komodos took a young Dodgers star with the first pick of the draft (Cody Bellinger).  This year, they took another young Dodgers star with the second pick.  Walker Buehler should give a significant boost to a pitching staff that really struggled a year ago.  Buehler was pretty clearly the best pitcher available in this draft.  In 137 big league innings, he struck out 151 while posting an impressive 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  That ERA is a full point lower than any Komodos starting pitcher posted in '18, when they finished dead last in the league in that category, by a healthy margin.  Buehler will immediately become the Komodos best pitcher.

    Juan Soto has already put himself in rarefied air based on his accomplishments in the big leagues as a teenager.  Nobody was expecting Soto to reach the majors for another year or two, but a series of injuries to Nationals outfielders caused them to bring him up last May. He was an immediate success and made it impossible to send him back down.  He was so good in his rookie campaign that the Nationals decided to only make a halfhearted attempt to retain Bryce Harper this winter.  Soto hit .292 with 22 homers in just 414 at bats.  The Naturals selected him with the third pick and he could have joined his Nationals teammate Victor Robles to form an exciting young duo for the Naturals as well.  But Soto was immediately traded to the Mavericks in a blockbuster swap of outfielders.  In return, the Naturals acquired Andrew Benintendi.  These are two of the best outfielders in the game, so this is quite a swap.  Benintendi is more established and is a little more well-rounded, offering a stolen base threat as well.  But Soto has a nearly unlimited upside in the power categories.  It will be very interesting to compare these players as their careers progress.  For the Mavericks, an outfield of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge is pretty darn scary.  But the Naturals have no shortage of young star hitters either.

    With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners selected this year's most interesting player, two-way star Shohei Ohtani.  Coming over from Japan, Ohtani was expected to be an immediate star on the mound, but many questioned if he would really be able to hit big league pitching.  In fact, some thought if he truly wanted to be a two-way player, he may need some time in the minors.  Well, turns out he can hit major league pitching.  He hit .285 with 22 home runs in just 326 at bats.  An injury limited him to just 51 innings on the mound, where he struck out 63 with a 3.31 ERA.  Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in 2019.  He does intend to hit, but probably won't see action in a big league game until May.  The Moonshiners have all sorts of options with Ohtani.  First, they can use him at 1B or OF this year since he didn't play a non-pitching field position last year.  And looking forward, they will have the option to use him as either a pitcher or hitter next year, assuming he is a keeper.  The sky is the limit with this pick, but the Moonshiners probably won't get their money's worth until next year and beyond.

    The Mavericks aren't used to picking in the first half of the first round, at least not with their own pick.  Last year was the first time they finished in the bottom half of the standings since 2011.  They took advantage of the rare positioning to acquire two of the top five players selected in this draft.  In addition to the trade for Soto, they selected pitcher Jack Flaherty with the fifth pick.  The Mavericks have an absolutely loaded offense, but the once undisputed top pitching staff in the league was anything but that a year ago.  Injuries destroyed the staff and caused them to finish dead last in pitching points.  Flaherty is the first step to try to rebuild that group.  Overshadowed a bit by the players already mentioned above, he had a rather dominant rookie campaign as well.  182 strikeouts in 151 innings is great for any pitcher, much less a 22 year old rookie.  The Cardinals hurler also had a strong 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  He should provide stability for this revamped staff.

    The Cougars have had a pretty good recent track record of selecting hitters in the first round.  Second baseman Gleyber Torres is the next in line.  The Cougars will likely open the season with their offensive lineup featuring their past five first round picks.  Torres is younger than all of his predecessors though at the time of joining the squad.  He hit .271 with 24 home runs during his age 21 rookie season.  That combination of ability and age should make him a fixture on the Cougars roster for a very long time.  The Yankees have a lot of options in their infield this year, but one thing is certain.  Torres will be playing virtually every day, whether it be at second base or shortstop.

    Speaking of impressive young Yankees infielders, another one was selected with the seventh pick, with the Choppers taking third baseman Miguel Andujar.  Andujar hit .297 with 27 homers and 92 RBI, to finish second in the American League Rookie of the Year vote, behind Ohtani.  The only knock on him is his glove, but that matters not at all in fantasy.  The Choppers will look to Andujar to replace team legend and future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre, who retired over the winter.  If Andujar can provide a spark to the Choppers offense, they could have a chance of ending their 20 year title drought.

    For the second straight year, the Demigods took the old guy of the first round.  But in this case, it is still a league rookie.  Jesus Aguilar started the 2018 season as a bench player for the Brewers.  But the first baseman immediately showed off his incredible power, quickly earned a starting job, and then made the NL All-Star team.  He slugged 35 homers with 108 runs batted in.  He did cool off a bit in the second half of the season, with only 11 of those homers coming after the All-Star break.  Outside of maybe Acuna and Soto, he was probably the safest bet for power in this draft.  The Demigods finished eighth in home runs last year, the biggest weakness for an otherwise strong offensive team.

    The Darkhorses selected Braves pitcher Mike Foltynewicz with the eighth pick, making this the first time since 2015 that more than two pitchers were taken in the first round.  Foltynewicz had a breakout season a year ago, which earned him an All-Star appearance.  He struck out 202 hitters in 183 innings with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  His previous best ERA season was 4.31, so '18 saw quite a dramatic improvement.  While he has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, he is still just 27 years old.  The Darkhorses barely missed winning the championship last year, with a mediocre pitching staff holding them back.  Foltynewicz could be exactly what they need to get over the hump.

    Sitting with the last pick in the first round, the Kings believed there was one player remaining who was clearly the best available, but he was at a position in which they were already well stacked.  So instead, they swung a trade with the Jackalope to move up a spot to grab that player.  The Kings received the Jackalope 2nd round pick (11th overall) along with a swap of 4th round slots.  The Jackalope then took Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to close out the first round.  Mondesi is a rare breed in that he is an elite base stealer, but also has surprising power.  He managed to steal 32 bases and hit 14 home runs despite not making his big league season debut until late June.  While he's unlikely to maintain a pace like that for a full season, he still could be an above average contributor to the power categories while potentially leading the league in steals.  Once considered an elite prospect, Mondesi had slipped under the radar a bit before his 2018 breakout.  Slight spoiler alert for my upcoming season preview articles, but you definitely won't see the Jackalope projected to finish last again.  They managed to acquire the two players with the highest projected PAR in the entire draft pool.  So the Jackalope started and finished the first round with a bang.  Meanwhile, the Kings selected starting pitcher Zack Wheeler with that pick they acquired from the Jackalope, the first pick of the second round.

    Thanks to all of you for the excellent pace to the first half of this draft.  At this rate, we'll be done with plenty of time to spare before the Japan openers.  Let's keep up the good work!

  • Four DTBL Legends Enshrined

    Embed from Getty Images One of the cool things about the longevity of this league is that now most of the newly inducted members in the Baseball Hall of Fame are players who accumulated most of their Hall of Fame credentials as members of DTBL teams.  This has been the case for a while, but some year's classes carry more significance to this league than others.  The 2018 class featured four of the best players in our league's history:  Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome.  Also inducted were Alan Trammell and Jack Morris.  Trammell played until 1996, but was never on a DTBL major league roster.  Morris had a brief, unimpressive stint with the Gators in the league's inaugural season.  But here is a synopsis of the DTBL careers of the big four who were inducted in Cooperstown the last week of July.

    Vladimir Guerrero was originally drafted by the expansion Angels in 1998 and was a member of that team for their only season of existence.  He then returned to the draft pool the following year and somehow fell all the way to the Choppers with the 8th pick of the 1999 draft.  Needless to say, that pick worked out pretty well for them.  He spent the remaining 13 seasons of his DTBL career with the Choppers, winning a championship in his first season with them (1999).  Guerrero ranks sixth in DTBL history with a .319 average and is in the top 10 in RBI as well (1,415).  His name is littered all over the Choppers franchise leaderboard:  second in average (.319), RBI (1,306) and runs (1,130), third in home runs (390) and sixth in stolen bases (165).  Not everyone recalls his base stealing prowess.  There are 16 DTBL players with 400 home runs (Adrian Beltre just recently joined this group).  Of those 16 guys, only Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds and Gary Sheffield have more than Guerrero's 176 career steals.  Vlad was as consistent of a hitter as the league has ever seen.  In his first nine seasons, he hit over .300 with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI in all but one year (2003).  In seasons in which he qualified for the batting title (400 at bats) his *worst* batting average was .300 in 2010.

    In the history of baseball, only one pitcher has recorded more saves than Trevor Hoffman (Mariano Rivera).  The same is true of DTBL history.  His 560 saves is 136 more than any pitcher not named Rivera, so he figures to hold onto the second spot for quite some time to come.  Unlike the other three players covered here, Hoffman doesn't have an obvious choice of team cap to wear on his fictional DTBL Hall of Fame plaque.  He spent time with six different franchises.  His longest tenures were five seasons with two different teams:  Panthers (1997-2001) and Moonshiners (2004-2008).  He started his career with the Kings (1995-1997), spent two stints with the Darkhorses (2002-2003, 2009) and split his final season (2010) with the Mavericks and Naturals.  He is the Moonshiners franchise leader in saves (202) and ranks third on the Panthers list (191).  Hoffman recorded at least 30 saves every year from 1995 through 2008, except for an injury marred 2003.  In addition to the gaudy save totals, he also struck out 948 batters, which ranks fourth among pitchers who spent their entire careers in the bullpen.  His 2.78 career ERA ranks fourth among all pitchers.  He was a member of two DTBL championship winning teams, near the end of his career:  the 2009 Darkhorses and 2010 Naturals.

    Chipper Jones was a slugging third baseman in an era when that wasn't really a thing.  It is basically him and Adrian Beltre at the top of all of the DTBL third baseman hitting rankings.  Most of his best seasons were spent as a member of the Jackalope.  He started his career with the Tidal Wave and was with them for both of their years of existence.  Then he joined another expansion team, the Jackalope, as their first pick in 1998.  He was released by the Jackalope after a decent 2006 season and added a couple more solid years with the Darkhorses in 2007 through 2009.  His final three seasons saw him bounce from the Cougars to the Mavericks and then back to the Darkhorses.  It was the Jackalope years that really made him a Hall of Fame player though.  With them, he hit .310 with 276 home runs, 874 RBI and 868 runs, all four totals rank in the top four of Jackalope history.  His career numbers also put him in elite company:  .308, 411 HR, 1,422 RBI, 1,414 runs.  The only other members of the .300/400/1,400/1,400 club are Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Albert Pujols.  While Jones' best seasons were with the Jackalope, his championship winning years came with the Darkhorses.  He was a member of the Darkhorses for the first three of their four consecutive titles (2007-2009).  He was a teammate of Hoffman's on that 2009 squad.

    Finally, we have Jim Thome, one of the most feared sluggers of the past quarter century.  Thome ranks fourth on the DTBL career list in home runs (546) and fifth in runs batted in (1,492).  No current member of the Baseball Hall of Fame has accumulated more DTBL home runs or RBI than Thome.  He is one of the few sluggers at the top of those lists without any PED taint.  He spent his entire DTBL career with just two teams.  Thome was originally a member of the Kings, but is best remembered as a member of the Choppers, who acquired him in the second round of the 1999 draft.  Yes, the Choppers selected Hall of Famers in the first two rounds of that '99 draft.  He spent 11 seasons with the Choppers (1999-2009), which was surrounded by a pair of stints with the Kings (1995-1998, 2010).  With the Choppers, he amassed 401 home runs, bested only by Sammy Sosa.  His 1,094 RBI and 976 runs both rank fourth in Choppers history.  Thome hit at least 40 home runs in six different seasons.  Probably the best season of his career came in 2002 when he slugged a career high 52 homers with a .304 average.  From 1999 through 2003, he hit at least 30 home runs with 100+ RBI and runs each year.  His lone DTBL championship came in his first season with the Choppers, 1999, when he was a teammate of Guerrero's.  Coincidentally, all four of these new Hall-of-Famers were members of either the 1999 Choppers or 2009 Darkhorses.

    Congratulations to four of the greatest players in DTBL history:  Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome!

    Now here are the weekly and monthly award winners for July 2018.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 15 (7/2 - 7/8) - Yulieski Gurriel, Demigods Week 16 (7/9 - 7/15) - Jose Ramirez, Komodos Week 17 (7/16 - 7/22) - Matt Carpenter, Choppers Week 18 (7/23 - 7/29) - Jonathan Schoop, Mavericks

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 15 (7/2 - 7/8) - Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners Week 16 (7/9 - 7/15) - Aaron Nola, Demigods Week 17 (7/16 - 7/22) - Zack Greinke, Moonshiners Week 18 (7/23 - 7/29) - Rick Porcello, Cougars

    Compiling the information above exposed a bit of a flaw in my code that captures the Batter and Pitcher of the Week winners each week.  In two instances, the above players were not the ones I captured.  Instead, I had players who weren't on an active DTBL roster at the time.  This has happened before, but I don't recall seeing two instances of it in the same month.  I should probably take some time to fix this.  Anyway, because I don't store weekly PAR numbers beyond the top batter and pitcher, I had to take a guess at who should have won these awards.  So it is quite possible that Yulieski Gurriel and Rick Porcello were not the rightful winners in their respective weeks.  What is certain is the accuracy of the monthly PAR totals for July.  Here are the players of the month.

    Batter of the Month:

    Jose Ramirez, Komodos .322 AVG, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R, 11 SB, 3.55 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Zack Greinke, Moonshiners 1.60 ERA, 0.891 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 35 K, 2.61 PAR

    When I see eye-popping numbers in all five categories, I often will run a Baseball Reference Play Index search to see if any other players in DTBL history have matched or exceeded all of the monthly numbers compiled by the batter or pitcher of the month.  In this case, Jose Ramirez's July, I found no results.  So, prior to July, no DTBL player had ever hit .322+ with 8+ home runs, 25+ RBI, 21+ runs and 11+ stolen bases in a single month.  These numbers were especially impressive coming in July with the All-Star break taking away a couple additional games played.  Ramirez is currently leading the DTBL in Batting PAR and home runs.  He is second in stolen bases and not far behind the leaders in RBI and runs either.  The Komodos third baseman has a strong case for MVP if he continues to be a five category force.  Ramirez won this award in a landslide, but finishing second was his Indians teammate Francisco Lindor.

    Zack Grienke is quietly compiling another great season to add to his impressive career resume.  When discussing the top pitchers of the game today, Greinke is rarely mentioned.  But he is posting a sub 3.00 ERA with a dozen wins and more than a strikeout per inning.  In July, Greinke tied for the league lead with four wins while compiling a 1.60 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.  With the recently added 2005 PAR numbers, Greinke's entire career PAR has been calculated.  Since 2005, only three other pitchers (Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer) have exceeded his 79.0 PAR.  Greinke just barely edged out Chris Sale for this monthly honor.

  • 2018 Season Preview: Part II

    Embed from Getty Images Happy Opening Day!  For the first time in recent history, all 30 teams were slated to start their seasons on the same day.  Unfortunately, weather has already cost us a pair of games today.  But we still have 13 games to look forward to this afternoon and evening.  Before the season officially launches, let's bang out a couple more of these 2018 DTBL team previews.  As you will see when I post the full standings projections, only 11 points separate the six teams expected to finish between fourth and ninth places, so there isn't too much of a difference between the pair of teams I'm previewing today and most of those I covered yesterday.  Also, it wouldn't be particularly surprising to see these teams in a pennant race this summer either.  The teams projected to finish in fifth and sixth place are somewhat opposites of each other.  One figures to have an elite hitting squad with questionable pitching while the other has one of the league's best pitching staffs supported by hitters with below average projections.  Here is a preview of two teams expected to finish in the middle of the standings.

    David's Darkhorses

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 1st (1st)

    • Home Runs - 9th (9th)

    • Runs Batted In - 8th (4th)

    • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)

    • Stolen Bases - 5th (4th)

    • Earned Run Average - 7th (10th)

    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (10th)

    • Wins - 10th (10th)

    • Saves - 4th (5th)

    • Strike Outs - 6th (3rd)

    • Total Batting Points - 4th-T (2nd)

    • Total Pitching Points - 8th (8th)

    • Total Points - 6th (5th-T)

    Summary:

    The Darkhorses had a bit of an odd profile last year, particularly on the pitching side.  They finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins, yet were third in strikeouts.  They were the first team since 2012 to have an ERA over 4.00.  But the impressive strikeout totals indicated that there was some talent on the staff.  These projections still don't love the pitching.  A couple newcomers to the rotation, Jose Berrios and Aaron Sanchez, should fuel some optimism though.  Sanchez is particularly interesting coming off an injury riddled season.  He was the third overall pick in the draft just a year ago.  Jacob deGrom remains the ace of the staff and Carlos Martinez fits nicely into the #2 slot.  Brad Hand, Archie Bradley and Chris Devenski are newcomers to the bullpen, joining Corey Knebel to make up an impressive group of power arms.  They may not have elite save numbers, but these guys will help prop up the Darkhorses strikeout numbers.  The strength of the roster remains the offense.  The core of the lineup is essentially the same as last year.  Bryce Harper appears primed to have a MVP caliber season as he heads into free agency.  Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain are now playing in homer friendly Milwaukee.  George Springer helps round out quite possibly the best outfield in the league.  The infield is pretty darn good too with Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy and Alex Bregman.  One key player who was a little disappointing a year ago is Xander Bogaerts.  Expect much better numbers from him this season.  The pieces are definitely in place for the Darkhorses to be a championship contender.  How much improvement they get out of their rotation will be the determining factor.

    Mike's Moonshiners

    Category - Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

    • Batting Average - 10th (10th)

    • Home Runs - 4th (7th)

    • Runs Batted In - 6th (8th)

    • Runs Scored - 9th (10th)

    • Stolen Bases - 8th (8th)

    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (2nd)

    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (2nd)

    • Wins - 1st (3rd)

    • Saves - 3rd (1st)

    • Strike Outs - 7th (6th)

    • Total Batting Points - 9th (9th)

    • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (2nd)

    • Total Points - 5th (5th-T)

    Summary:

    According to these prognostications, no team looks more similar to the 2017 version of themselves than the Moonshiners.  Almost across the board, they are expected to finish close to where they were a year ago.  This means they once again have a below average hitting squad paired with one of the best pitching staffs in the league.  Brian Dozier and Khris Davis are the lone Moonshiners with batting PAR projections over 4.0.  They were their top two hitters a year ago as well.  But this doesn't mean improvements haven't been made.  All three of their top draft picks could give this offense a big boost:  Rafael Devers, Ian Happ and Paul DeJong.  Another guy to watch is Gregory Polanco who never really got on track last year after coming over in a trade with the Kings.  Jake Lamb and Miguel Sano make up a formidable duo at the keystone corner.  Batting average looks like the Moonshiners worst category.  They are slated to finish nearly 10 points behind the next worst team.  The pitching staff remains strong.  Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Dallas Keuchel and Jeff Samardzija all receive PAR projections over 4.0 and the fifth holdover, Kyle Hendricks, is perennially underrated.  Edwin Diaz, Roberto Osuna and Brandon Morrow give the Moonshiners three elite closers and a decent shot at leading the league in saves again this year.  This is as deep of a pitching staff as any in the league.  Last year was a nice step forward for the Moonshiners as they finished above seventh place for the first time since 2012.  They are no doubt setting their sights higher this season.  If their top hitting additions can outperform these projections, a reasonable possibility, they could be in the hunt for their first league championship.

  • Komodos Nab Bellinger

    Embed from Getty Images
    The 2018 DTBL Draft kicked off Thursday, March 8.  The first pick belonged to the league’s newest member, Kat’s Komodos.  Inheriting a Gators roster that was well stocked with hitters but very much lacking in pitching, the biggest question going into the draft was if they would select a player based on need or take the best player available.  The Komodos did the latter, picking the consensus top player in the draft pool, Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger.  As usual, the first round as a whole skewed young with nine DTBL rookies selected, four of whom didn’t make their MLB debuts until after the All-Star break last season.  The first round was light on pitching this year as eight of the top ten were hitters.

    In retrospect, the decision to take Bellinger with the first pick was probably pretty easy for the Komodos.  The reigning National League Rookie of the Year will give them a huge power boost and may even position them as one of the deepest offensive teams in the league.  Bellinger made his presence known right from the start.  He was a NL All-Star as a rookie.  He hit 39 home runs with 97 RBI and 87 runs despite not making his debut until late April.  His .267 average was quite respectable for a slugging rookie and he even stole 10 bases.  Bellinger should be a star for the Komodos for a long time to come.

    In many ways, the Kings faced a similar predicament to the Komodos with the second pick and made the same decision, taking the player they believed to be the best available despite it not being a position of great need.  With that pick, the Kings selected first baseman turned outfielder Rhys Hoskins.  The Phillies young slugger came up through the minors as a modestly rated prospect who did nothing but mash at every level of the minors.  That continued in the majors, despite also having to learn a new position at the big league level.  Hoskins slugged 18 homers in just 50 major league games, pumping out a ridiculous 1.014 OPS.  With the Phillies signing Carlos Santana this winter, it appears they will continue to deploy Hoskins to the outfield.  Even if that goes poorly, Hoskins’ bat will force its way into the lineup on a daily basis.

    With the third pick, the Jackalope were able to do both of the things mentioned above:  pick the best player available and fill a glaring hole in the roster.  They selected Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino.  Severino is technically a DTBL rookie, having never appeared on an active roster before.  But this is the second time he has been drafted.  The Naturals picked him in the 5th round in 2016, but he started the season in the minors and was released in May.  After that disappointing ’16 campaign, he was removed from the league last year, causing us to miss out on his breakout season.  In 2017, he became one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP with 14 wins and 230 strikeouts.  The Jackalope pitching staff really struggled a year ago, making Severino a perfect fit.  They are also quite heavy on Yankees now, employing Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Sonny Gray and Dellin Betances.  Not a bad group.

    The top three of the draft seemed pretty clear cut.  Predicting who would go fourth and beyond was a bit more challenging.  The Choppers had the fourth pick and used it on second baseman Whit Merrifield who went from relative obscurity to fantasy monster during the course of the 2017 season.  The Royals infielder hit .288 with 19 home runs, 34 stolen bases, 80 runs and 78 RBI.  He was a plus contributor to all five categories, but especially stolen bases.  The Choppers had the worst offense in the league last year (in terms of batting points), so adding a do-it-all infielder makes plenty of sense.  It remains to be seen if the power was real, but in today’s home run climate, it seems quite possible it was.

    Last year, the Moonshiners somewhat regretted passing on a young Red Sox up-and-comer in the first round in Andrew Benintendi.  They ensured that the same mistake wouldn’t be made again this year, grabbing third baseman Rafael Devers with the fifth pick.  Devers was just 20 years old when he made his MLB debut last summer.  But he earned his promotion by demolishing every level of the minors on his way up.  And the hitting continued when he reached the big leagues.  He hit .284 with 10 homers in 58 major league games.  Considering his age, the sky is the limit with this guy.  Early signs are that he is going to be a great hitter with above average power.  That should make him a fixture at hot corner for the Moonshiners for a very long time.

    While hitters took most of the spotlight of the first round, there were a couple very intriguing pitchers selected as well.  The second of those was Twins starter Jose Berrios, picked sixth by the Darkhorses.  Berrios earned elite prospect status on his ascension up the minor league ladder, but a rocky MLB debut season in 2016 dampened expectations a bit.  But in 2017, he regained his status as an exciting young hurler.  He posted a solid 3.89 ERA and 1.229 WHIP with 14 wins and 139 strikeouts in 145 innings, helping lead the Twins to a surprising Wild Card berth.  He should immediately boost a Darkhorses pitching staff that finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins last season.

    The Demigods selected the lone non-DTBL rookie of the first round with pick number seven.  Outfielder Ender Inciarte continues to be one of the more underrated all-around players in baseball.  With a weak Braves team around him last year, he managed to hit .304 with 11 homers, 93 runs scored and 22 stolen bases.  What a difference a year can make to a player’s stock.  The Darkhorses drafted Inciarte for the second time last year, in the 12th round.  Now he’s a first rounder.  For the record, the Darkhorses also drafted him in the fourth round in 2016.  With the investment of a first round pick, I have a feeling he will stick around for a while this time with the Demigods.

    Following that selection of a DTBL “veteran”, the Cougars picked an outfielder who will be a rookie in this league, but is actually almost three years older than Inciarte.  Now 30 years old, Tommy Pham broke out big time for the Cardinals in ’17.  He hit .306 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases, becoming a legitimate five category force, seemingly out of nowhere.  This has become a consistent trend in the Cardinals organization:  late blooming non-prospects becoming excellent major league contributors.  There are plenty of reasons to believe Pham’s breakout is sustainable, most notably that he has been able to harness his degenerative vision problems.

    For the second straight year, the Naturals used their first round pick on one of the top prospects in baseball who probably will spend a bulk of the upcoming season in the minors.  With the ninth pick, they selected young Nationals outfielder Victor Robles.  Considered the possible heir apparent to Bryce Harper in the Nats outfield, should Harper decide to take his talents elsewhere next winter, Robles has elite hitting, fielding and running skills.  Though not a big time slugger to this point of his career, scouts believe that will come as well.  MLB.com has him ranked as the #6 prospect in baseball and #1 among those who have already made their MLB debuts.  Robles is just 20 years old, so this is a long-term play for the Naturals.

    Finally, the defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting another young hitter who splashed onto the scene late in the 2017 season, Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies.  Albies hit .286 with six home runs and eight stolen bases in 57 big league games, basically replicating the numbers he posted in AAA as a 20 year old.  So for those of you scoring at home, that’s three first round picks on guys who will enter the ’18 season at age 21 or younger (Albies, Devers, Robles).  The Mavericks don’t really have any holes, but Albies will slot in nicely at 2B.

    The first round didn’t feature any trades this year, but there have been three separate deals since the first round ended, involving six different teams.  First, the Mavericks continued a revamp of their bullpen, dealing Aroldis Chapman to the Komodos for their second round pick (11th overall).  That pick was used on a very interesting pitcher, Alex Reyes.  Reyes should return from Tommy John surgery in May.  While his exact role remains a mystery, there are a few intriguing possibilities including closer or spot starter.  The fact that he will be designated as a reliever for this season could make him extremely valuable once he is healthy.  Meanwhile, Chapman gives the Komodos a reliable anchor in their bullpen which had no such commodities on the returning roster.

    The next trade saw the Choppers flip their second round pick (14th overall) to the Naturals for outfielder Andrew McCutchen.  Once one of the best players in the league, McCutchen quietly put up pretty strong numbers across the board last year and will now be applying his craft in San Francisco.  As mentioned above, the Choppers needed a boost to their offense, so McCutchen should help to that end.  The Naturals used the acquired pick on the top closer in this draft, Pirates lefty Felipe Rivero, a former teammate of McCutchen’s.  Rivero had a dominant debut as a closer in ’17, saving 21 games with a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP.

    The third deal was a swap of power hitters, in an attempt to clear position log jams on both ends.  The Kings dealt their longtime slugging outfielder Jay Bruce to the Cougars for first baseman Justin Bour.  On the Kings side, this was mostly a move to clear an overcrowded outfield, but also to get younger.  Trading away Bruce allowed them to select rookie outfielder Willie Calhoun with their subsequent pick, in the fifth round.  Of course, hours after they drafted Calhoun, he got sent to the minors.  But this was a future value play anyway.  Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t have much use for Bour after drafting Justin Smoak and Bruce fills a need for a power hitting outfielder.

    With four rounds remaining in the draft, we should easily finish up with time to spare before Opening Day.  Thanks to everyone for keeping things moving.  I hope to start my season preview articles this upcoming weekend.  Until then, keep up the good work!

     

     

  • Still a Two Team Race

    Embed from Getty Images It's been a two team race for the DTBL Championship for several months now.  Despite the fact that the Mavericks and Naturals have been dealing with injuries to several of their most important players and neither team has truly put it all together yet, no other team besides these two has come close to sniffing first place in recent months.  At the end of July, the Mavericks and Naturals were tied for first place, but the Mavericks have moved into a 1 1/2 point lead at the time of writing.  It is still very much possible for other teams to get back into the race since the gap between the top two and the rest of the pack is just over ten points.  But we just haven't seen any other team make a run yet.

    Two teams looking to make such a run struck a deal a couple weeks ago.  The Moonshiners and Kings completed a trade that was intended to solve roster problems created by injuries.  But as it has turned out so far, this trade has only created further problems as both teams seemingly received damaged goods.  The Moonshiners traded shortstop Zack Cozart and pitcher Jon Gray to the Kings in exchange for outfielder Avisail Garcia and pitcher Jeff Samardzija.  At the time, the Kings were in desparate need of a shortstop to replace the injured Carlos Correa while the Moonshiners were looking for an outfielder to fill in for Gregory Polanco and Keon Broxton.  Of course, within a week of the trade, both Cozart and Garcia hit the disabled list.  This marks the second trade between these teams that appears to have been a bit of a bust for both sides.  The March swap of Polanco for Kyle Seager hasn't been terribly productive for either team.

    This seems like a good time to remind you that the DTBL trade deadline is coming up on August 15.  That is a Tuesday, meaning any trades must be confirmed by both sides before midnight on the 15th even though they will not be processed until the following Monday.  Now, onto the award winners for July 2017.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 14 (7/3 - 7/9) - Jose Altuve, Demigods Week 15 (7/14 - 7/16) - Anthony Rendon, Jackalope Week 16 (7/17 - 7/23) - Nolan Arenado, Naturals Week 17 (7/24 - 7/30) - J.D. Martinez, Demigods

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 14 (7/3 - 7/9) - Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks Week 15 (7/14 - 7/16) - Jose Quintana, Gators Week 16 (7/17 - 7/23) - Jon Lester, Choppers Week 17 (7/24 - 7/30) - James Paxton, Naturals

    The way these weekly honors usually work is that my weekly transaction processing program will create a database record for the players with the highest batting and pitching PAR for the week at the time of processing.  But because of the All-Star break, I wasn't able the capture who had the highest PAR for Week 14 (7/3 through 7/9).  So instead, I used the FanGraphs' splits leaderboard to eyeball the stats for that week and decided Altuve and Kershaw were the likely PAR leaders for the week.  It could be wrong though, particularly in the case of Altuve who had stiff competition from his Astros teammate George Springer.  There wasn't particularly stiff competition for the monthly awards though.  Here are the winners.

    Batter of the Month:

    Jose Altuve, Demigods .485 AVG, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 22 R, 8 SB, 3.38 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    James Paxton, Naturals 1.37 ERA, 0.788 WHIP, 6 W, 0 SV, 46 K, 4.08 PAR

    Jose Altuve nearly hit .500 in July!  He went 48 for 99, which penciled out to a .485 average for the month.  It is the highest monthly batting average since recently inducted Hall-of-Famer Ivan Rodriguez hit .500 in June of 2004 and the fourth highest total in league history:  https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/i0mzo.  It wasn't just the average though.  He also hit four homers, scored and drove in over 20 runs and stole eight bases.  Altuve's hot month has inserted the Demigods second baseman right into the thick of the MVP conversation.  He won this award easily.  Following him were a bunch of closely packed players, with Bryce Harper leading the way.

    On the pitching side, another pretty rare feat was achieved by the Naturals' James Paxton.  He won six games in the month, becoming the first DTBL player to do that in a single month this season.  Along with all those wins came a very impressive 1.37 ERA and 0.788 WHIP.  The Canadian left-hander has become the de facto ace for the Naturals in their championship hunt, replacing the injured Noah Syndergaard.  It was a comfortable win for Paxton, but the Choppers' Chris Sale was the runner-up.

  • Homer/Whiff Trends Continue


    The early returns are in and the statistical trends of the past few seasons seem to be continuing into 2017.  Last year featured the most home runs in the DTBL since 2001 and the highest K/IP rate in league history.  I didn’t take the time to compute the exact home run and strikeout pace for the league this season, but based on MLB numbers, it appears the all-time league total single season home run and strikeout records are in jeopardy of falling this year.  In MLB, there have been 1.17 HR per team, per game this season, up slightly from 1.16 last year and virtually tied with the all-time record in 2000.  Considering that the weather hasn’t even started to heat up in many of the league’s cities yet, this number only figures to rise.  Meanwhile, batters are whiffing at a significantly higher rate than last season’s record breaking number.  So far this season, there have been 8.22 strikeouts per team, per game, way up from last year’s record 8.03.

    Obviously, the surge in home runs and strikeouts has a big impact on those two categories in this league, but other categories as well.  The league batting average sits at just .260 right now, which would be the lowest mark in league history by eight points!  While batters are reaching base safely via hits at a much lower rate, scoring overall is actually up.  The league ERA sits at 3.65, which is higher than the full season total from any of the past seven seasons.  So, in summary, strikeouts and homers are way up, runs are slightly up and batting average is way down.  The era of the three true outcome hitters (home runs, strikeouts, walks) appears to be here to stay for a while.

    Players of the Month are back again for another season.  As usual, these awards will be handed out to the batter and pitcher who had the highest PAR for the month.  I will also continue to use these articles to chronicle the winners of the weekly honors as well.  Here are the top players from the first month of the 2017 season.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/2 – 4/9) – Nomar Mazara, Mavericks
    Week 2 (4/10 – 4/16) – Marcell Ozuna, Naturals
    Week 3 (4/17 – 4/23) – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
    Week 4 (4/24 – 4/30) – Ryan Zimmerman, Demigods

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 1 (4/2 – 4/9) – Jake Arrieta, Jackalope
    Week 2 (4/10 – 4/16) – James Paxton, Naturals
    Week 3 (4/17 – 4/23) – Max Scherzer, Kings
    Week 4 (4/24 – 4/30) – Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners

    As the above names indicate, April was a good month for the Nationals and players looking for a bounce-back after disappointing seasons a year ago.  Harper, Zimmerman and Keuchel were among some of the most disappointing players in the league last year, compared to their varying expectations.  So far, so good in 2017.  Here are the monthly award winners for April:

    Batter of the Month:

    Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
    .391 AVG, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 32 R, 0 SB, 3.31 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners
    1.21 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 3.83 PAR

    For the second consecutive season, Bryce Harper has won the April Batter of the Month award.  Of course, last year, things started to go off the rails for Harper soon after the calendar turned to May.  But there are plenty of reasons to think that won’t happen again this year.  For one thing, he looks healthier.  Also, his April was even better this year than last.  He is easily leading the league in runs scored and is right near the top in AVG, HR and RBI as well.  I didn’t run the numbers to confirm it, but I believe this honor would have actually gone to Harper’s Nationals teammate Ryan Zimmerman had he been on the Demigods roster right from Opening Day.  Despite spending a week as a free agent, Zimmerman still came in second in the league in PAR for April.  Another Demigod, Freddie Freeman was third.

    April was a very encouraging month from Dallas Keuchel.  He currently leads the league in wins and is third in both ERA and WHIP.  If he has returned to 2015 form, the Moonshiners should be in good shape.  Keuchel won this monthly honor fairly easily, but three other pitchers had outstanding months as well.  Two not very surprising names:  Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale, and one not so expected:  James Paxton.  Unfortunately, Paxton’s hot start was tempered a bit as he was placed on the DL yesterday.

    One last note.  I knew this day was coming, but it appears Getty now has ads embedded in their images.  It is annoying, but I think I’m going to continue to use them anyway as I’m not aware of another similar free/legal source for baseball photos.

  • 2017 Season Preview: Part I


    We are just days away from the start of the 25th DTBL season.  A quarter century doing this.  I guess that means we’re getting old.  Anyway, there will be time for nostalgia later.  For now, it is time to start looking at what we might see in this upcoming season.  Last season ended with the Kings winning the championship by just about the narrowest margin imaginable.  The Demigods came painfully close to their first title while the Choppers and Mavericks were also in the race in the closing days of the season.  It seems quite possible that we could have a thrilling finish again this year as a whole bunch of teams figure to be in contention.  Which teams have the early edge?  As has become custom, I have compiled projected stats for all the players and teams in the league and have used those numbers to create projected standings.

    I have made a small change to these projections from previous years.  But first, please check out this post from four years ago for a refresher on how these projections are created.  Here is what has changed for 2017.  Instead of simply using ZiPS projections (and Steamer for saves), I have decided to use FanGraphs’ Depth Charts Projections.  These projections combine ZiPS and Steamer and then are adjusted by FanGraphs staffers based on expected playing time.  I decided this set of numbers would be preferable to simply using ZiPS for a couple reasons.  First, more input is generally better than less, so two separate systems are being used to create these numbers.  Second, the playing time adjustments make sense to more accurately determine how much of an impact a player is likely to have this season.  It is worth noting that this change will hurt players who figure to spend a chunk of the season in the minors, like Yoan Moncada, for example.  Moncada’s Depth Charts projection is for 266 plate appearances whereas ZiPS has him at 650.  There is virtually no chance Moncada will have 650 plate appearances this year.  So I think Depth Charts paints a more accurate picture, but you are free to disagree.  One last thing to note is that some of these playing time projections have changed as spring training has progressed.  The numbers I am using were taken from just days before the start of the draft.  So that is something to consider as well.

    As we begin to dive into these team previews, keep in mind that these projections are nice, but almost certainly won’t come close to predicting the actual results of the 2017 season.  Last year’s projections had the Kings finishing sixth and the Jackalope repeating as champions.  That didn’t exactly happen.  On the other hand, the projections did quite accurately predict that the Demigods and Choppers would be serious title contenders.  So anyway, many grains of salt should be taken when digesting this information.  I do believe it is an interesting way to preview the season without making any enemies by posting my personal predictions.

    Without further ado, let’s get to the projections.  Today, I will preview the teams projected to finish in the bottom three spots in the standings.  These projections are especially harsh on the last place squad, but show room for improvement for the other two teams as well.

    Greg’s Gators

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 9th (5th)
    • Home Runs – 9th (7th)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
    • Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
    • Wins – 10th (10th)
    • Saves – 8th (8th)
    • Strike Outs – 7th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 10th (6th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
    • Total Points – 10th (8th)

    Summary:

    The above numbers aren’t pretty, but one potential reason for optimism is that the Gators have easily exceeded offensive projections the past two years, so there may be something these systems don’t like about their hitters.  They are clearly a speed first team, but they have a bunch of really good power hitters as well.  Wil Myers and Jean Segura were the breakout stars last year.  Corey Seager figures to take another step towards superstar status this season.  Jose Ramirez is the top offensive newcomer and should fit in nicely as an outstanding hitter who can run too.  I’m definitely taking the over on the batting projection.  Pitching, on the other hand, has been the Gators’ sore spot for a while now.  They do not have a truly dominant ace, although Jose Quintana could be one if he played for a different MLB team.  If he were to get traded by the White Sox, that could be a huge gain for the Gators.  Aaron Sanchez was tabbed with the third pick in the draft, so they are obviously counting on him to carry a heavy load.  Jharel Cotton is a very intriguing addition to the rotation too.  The bullpen features arguably the best closer in baseball in Zach Britton.  However, he is currently the only guy in the pen expected to open the season as a closer.  It will require vastly exceeding these projections for the Gators to put an end to their six year run in the bottom three of the standings.  Interestingly enough though, the only time they have ever finished in last place was the very first year of this league, 1993, when there were only five teams.  Can they avoid last place once again?

    David’s Darkhorses

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 1st (4th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (4th-T)
    • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
    • Stolen Bases – 4th (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 10th (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 9th (6th)
    • Wins – 9th (8th)
    • Saves – 10th (9th)
    • Strike Outs – 8th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (7th)
    • Total Points – 9th (5th)

    Summary:

    This feels like the weirdest projection we will see in this series, by far.  Last year, the Darkhorses finished a respectable fifth place and had the best offense in the league.  So how did they fall all the way to 9th here?  I can’t really answer that.  I even double-checked the numbers to make sure I didn’t screw up something.  I like this team a lot, especially the bats.  Bryce Harper is close to a lock to improve on his pedestrian numbers from last season.  Maybe a step back from Daniel Murphy is to be expected, but newcomer Alex Bregman should easily make up for that.  Christian Yelich and George Springer are also on the verge of greatness in my opinion, and interestingly enough, both will be moving to full time gigs in center field this year.  There is a lot to like about the Darkhorses’ offense.  The pitching staff is a far bigger question mark.  Can Rick Porcello come close to matching his 2016 AL Cy Young campaign?  Will youngsters Julio Urias and Tyler Glasnow flourish in the big leagues this season?  There is significant upside in the rotation, but also a lot of unknowns.  The bullpen isn’t great, but could be much more interesting if Hector Neris is rightfully given the Phillies closer job early in the season.  They should easily exceed this saves projection.  Overall, I think the Darkhorses could be a contender, despite what these numbers show.  It will come down to how the young pitchers perform.

    Mike’s Moonshiners

    Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 10th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 2nd (8th)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases – 6th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 8th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
    • Wins – 2nd (4th-T)
    • Saves – 2nd (2nd)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th (5th)
    • Total Points – 8th (7th)

    Summary:

    Like the other two teams in this article, the Moonshiners have a recent trend of exceeding expectations.  Despite finishing 7th and being projected for 8th this year, there are actually a lot of positives here.  As you will see when I post the full standings projections at the end of the series, the Moonshiners are actually expected to improve by more than 10 standings points from last year.  It is just how they happened to shake out in comparison to other teams that pushed them down to 8th.  It is pretty clear that the offense should be better this year, despite trading away two of their key veteran hitters:  Kyle Seager and Ian Kinsler.  Instead, they now have some significant young potential in guys like Gregory Polanco and Jonathan Villar.  Villar alone will ensure they don’t finish anywhere near last in steals again.  And there is a ton of power in the lineup too with guys like Brian Dozier, Khris Davis, Miguel Sano, Evan Gattis and Brad Miller.  Batting average could be a problem, but they should see significant improvement in the other four hitting categories.  The pitching staff will still be led by veterans Dallas Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke along with last year’s breakout sensation Kyle Hendricks.  The Moonshiners seem to have a guy like that every year (Keuchel the year before), so who will it be this season?  Perhaps Jon Gray or Robbie Ray.  The bullpen is quite strong with the additions of the two best closers available in this draft:  Edwin Diaz and Seung Hwan Oh.  The Moonshiners have finished in 7th place four years in a row.  Despite the projection of 8th, these numbers actually show a very strong likelihood of them taking a positive step forward this season.