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Kings Lead Widens

Monday, September 5th, 2016


The Kings have been in first place for a majority of the season, but things were getting a little too close for comfort in early August as the Mavericks and Demigods were in hot pursuit.  They even briefly surrendered the top spot.  But in the last few weeks, they have built up a more comfortable lead once again.  As September hit, the lead was up to 9  1/2 points, though that has dropped down to 6 1/2 as of today.  The race is far from over, but the Kings are definitely in the driver’s seat.

It has pretty much been a three team race since the All-Star break.  A month ago, the Demigods may have actually been the presumed favorite just because the Kings and Mavericks were fighting through some serious injury problems.  This is still a major problem for the Mavericks, who haven’t been able to field a full, healthy rotation since June.  The Kings injuries were mostly on the offensive side as they seemed to suffer a new ailment every day in late July.  But things have been patched up recently and they continue to field the league’s best offense.

At first glance, the Kings simply don’t seem to have a championship caliber pitching staff.  But two of their long time aces have really stepped up of late:  Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  Those two guys have led the Kings into the top half of the league in pitching points, which seemed like an unreachable goal as recently as a month ago.  The Kings are still dead last in ERA, yet are in the top three of every other pitching category, which is a little strange to say the least.  But this pitching resurgence has pushed the Kings back up to the 80 point mark in the standings.  If they can hold onto that, they should be able to finish off the improbable worst to first turnaround.

This race is far from over though.  The Kings are extremely vulnerable in a whole bunch of categories, especially on the pitching side.  The Demigods are the closest competition at the moment.  All year, they have looked like the most balanced team, and as mentioned earlier, some might have considered them the favorite when the Kings and Mavericks were losing players left and right.  The Demigods have possibly been the healthiest team in the league.  But now they need to go on a run to get back into the race for their first championship.

Perhaps the team most worth watching in the final month is the Mavericks.  In some ways, it is quite remarkable that they are still in this race despite losing basically their entire rotation for significant portions of the season.  But the band is going to start coming back together this week as Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw are expected to make their returns from the disabled list.  It shouldn’t take long for the Mavericks to gain points in pitching categories with those two back in the lineup.

Finally, the Choppers and Darkhorses aren’t completely eliminated yet, but will need to get hot in a hurry to get back in the race.  Four weeks to go.  Will the Kings become the DTBL’s first six time champion?  Here are the award winners for August 2016.

Batters of the Week:

Week 18 (8/1 – 8/7) – Brandon Phillips, Cougars
Week 19 (8/8 – 8/14) – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars
Week 20 (8/15 – 8/21) – Kris Bryant, Cougars
Week 21 (8/22 – 8/28) - Josh Donaldson, Jackalope

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 18 (8/1 – 8/7) – Kyle Hendricks, Moonshiners
Week 19 (8/8 – 8/14) – Rick Porcello, Darkhorses
Week 20 (8/15 – 8/21) - Ian Kennedy, Cougars
Week 21 (8/22 – 8/28) - David Price, Naturals

It was a weirdly strong month for players on the non-contending teams.  Not one of the weekly awards went to a player on one of the top four teams.  The last place Cougars had three different hitters and a pitcher take home weekly honors.  This carried over to the monthly awards as well, which were won by teammates from a non-contender.  Here are the DTBL monthly award winners for August 2016:

Batter of the Month:

Brian Dozier, Moonshiners
.302 AVG, 13 HR, 27 RBI, 27 R, 3 SB, 3.23 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Kyle Hendricks, Moonshiners
1.28 ERA, 0.780 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 3.36 PAR

The month of August saw the Moonshiners creep up the standings a little bit, no longer in serious danger of finishing dead last for the first time in franchise history.  The August surge was largely due to the month’s top two players:  Brian Dozier and Kyle Hendricks.  Dozier is having a career year, already surpassing his previous season highs in home runs and RBI.  In August, he led the league in home runs with 13 and was near the top in RBI and runs, with 27 apiece.  The Moonshiners offense has been carried most of the season by their two second basemen, Dozier and Ian Kinsler.  A whole host of other hitters challenged for the monthly award, with Nolan Arenado as the closest competition.

In an absolutely loaded rookie class, one player has gone largely overlooked, until now.  Kyle Hendricks has been the most surprising star of the Cubs magical season, making a run at Jake Arrieta for the title of ace of the staff.  He has unquestionably been the ace of the Moonshiners staff, a rotation containing former Cy Young winners Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke and Dallas Keuchel.  Hendricks was the pretty clear winner of the August honor, but Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello had great months as well.

Posted in Awards, Demigods, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »

2016 Season Preview: Part I

Wednesday, March 30th, 2016


Welcome to the 2016 DTBL season!  Before things get started for real on Sunday, I’m going to kick off my annual season preview articles.  Last year, the Jackalope turned the season into a bit of a snoozer as they basically dominated the league from start to finish.  Surely, that won’t happen again this year, will it?  Which other teams can pose a serious threat to their title defense?  As has been the custom in recent years, I have compiled projected stats for all players currently on DTBL rosters and have used those to create a projection of the league standings.

Once again, I am using ZiPS as my source for 2016 stat projections for every statistical category except for saves, which I obtained from Steamer.  Please check out this post from three years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections.  I am using the stats for all 28 players who were on each team’s roster at the completion of the draft, even if they are not expected to contribute much this season.  However, the team totals are adjusted to assume a 14 hitter and 9 pitcher roster.  Again, check the link above to see exactly how I’m doing this.

Before I get started, a quick look back at last year’s projections.  First, the Jackalope dominance was definitely not expected as they were slotted to finish sixth.  But some of the other forecasts were pretty solid, including the projection of an extremely bunched middle of the pack and disappointing seasons for the Kings, Gators and Moonshiners.  No doubt, this year’s projections won’t hit all the marks either, but I still think this provides some value in identifying pre-season strengths and weaknesses of each team.

I will break this into four sections.  In the past, I’ve gone with three teams in the first two parts and two in the final two.  But I’m switching it up a bit this year.  Not to spoil the full standings, but there is a pretty clear delineation at both the top and bottom of the standings with a pair of teams sticking out on each end and the middle six picked to finish in an extremely tight group.  So I’m going to go 2-3-3-2 this year.  With that, here are the teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings in 2016.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (4th)
  • Wins – 7th (5th)
  • Saves – 6th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (6th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (6th)
  • Total Points – 10th (7th)

Summary:

At this time last year, the Moonshiners had just swung a couple huge trades to give their pitching staff a much needed boost.  Adding Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez certainly did improve their staff, but not nearly enough to make them a contender.  Meanwhile, their offense wasn’t great either as they limped to a seventh place finish.  Unfortunately, these projections show them taking a huge step in the wrong direction this year, especially on the hitting side.  They are not projected to finish higher than fifth in any category and are slotted dead last in three categories.  The problem, at least on offense, appears to be a lack of players who are expected to post monster numbers.  There are some reasons for optimism though.  Their first two draft picks, Miguel Sano and Michael Conforto, have enormous upside and could easily become their best two offensive players immediately.  On the pitching side, it is hard to imagine a staff led by Greinke, Hernandez and Dallas Keuchel not being at least average.  Also, while the bullpen doesn’t have any huge names, they do currently have four guys slated to be closers.  The  Moonshiners will need to vastly exceed these projections to have a good season, but last place seems a little overly pessimistic for a franchise that has NEVER finished worse than seventh.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 4th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (9th)
  • Wins – 9th (8th)
  • Saves – 7th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th-T)
  • Total Points – 9th (8th)

Summary:

So the order is switched, but the bottom two of these projections are the same as a year ago.  Despite finishing in eighth place in 2015, the Gators made significant strides, particularly with their bats.  This year, the goal would seem to be to improve the pitching staff.  Steven Matz joins a rotation that badly needs an ace.  These projections don’t show them making the necessary jump on the mound to move up the standings.  But this is familiar territory for the Gators, being projected near the bottom.  Their actual results last year were much better than even their place of finish would indicate.  And there are some positive signs in these projections too, including a big improvement in power.  If Yoenis Cespedes’ second half can carry into the new year, things will really be looking up.  Corey Seager hopes to anchor an improved infield.  Overall, there is a lot to like about the Gators roster.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff has too many question marks for them to project as a contender this year.  At the very least, the Gators aim to finish above the bottom three for the first time since 2010.

Posted in Gators, Moonshiners | 1 Comment »

Elite Rookie Class Arrives

Thursday, March 24th, 2016


One of the prevailing storylines of the 2015 baseball season was the infusion of highly touted prospects making their MLB debuts and immediately contributing for their big league clubs.  So it was clear last summer that the 2016 DTBL draft class would be one of the most highly regarded groups we’ve ever seen.  Not surprisingly, those superstars-in-the-making dominated the early part of the 24th Annual DTBL Draft.

Of the first 14 players selected in the draft, 11 made their MLB debuts during the 2015 season.  One other was classified as a rookie and another has just one full season under his belt.  The one “veteran” of that group is Carlos Martinez, who happens to be just 24 years old .  Martinez was the only first round selection who did not make his MLB debut last season.

The draft kicked off with a pair of players who arrived in the big leagues with so much hype that it seemed impossible for them to immediately live up to it.  But that they did, on their way to AL and NL Rookie of the Year honors.  With the first pick, the Kings selected shortstop Carlos Correa, making him the third player to have been selected with the first pick of both the DTBL and MLB Drafts (joining Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper).  Correa demonstrated all of his five tools for the Astros last season.  He hit .279 with 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases in four months of action.  He will be asked to anchor a position which suddenly became a weakness for the Kings after a disappointing season from Ian Desmond and off the field troubles for Jose Reyes.  The second pick was no slouch either.  The Cougars selected third baseman Kris Bryant who led all MLB rookies with 26 home runs and 99 runs batted in.  He will give an immediate boost to a Cougars offense which was dead last in the league in batting points last year.

Correa and Bryant were the presumptive top two picks all along.  But they were hardly the only youngsters with huge upside in this draft.  The Gators took shortstop Corey Seager with the third pick.  Seager, the younger brother of Moonshiners third baseman Kyle, hit a robust .337 with four homers in just 27 games after a September call-up.  He figures to be another key piece to a Gators offense which made great strides a year ago.  The Moonshiners kept the run of potential superstar sluggers going by selecting third baseman Miguel Sano with pick four.  Sano probably has the most raw power of any player in the draft not named Bryant.  He hit 18 home runs in just 279 big league at bats.  His eventual position is still TBD, but his power will play anywhere on the field.

For the second straight year, no pitchers were selected in the top four picks.  Last year, the Jackalope grabbed the first pitcher, Jake Arrieta, in the sixth slot.  This year, the Naturals hope for a similar payout from the first picher off the board.  They selected Noah Syndergaard at number five.  Syndergaard was a key figure in the Mets pennant winning season.  He struck out 166 in 150 innings along with nine wins, a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  This is the second straight year the Naturals have gone with a pitcher in the first round (Carlos Carrasco).  The Choppers followed by selecting outfielder Kyle Schwarber, another slugger with tons of raw power.  Schwarber slugged 16 homers in just 232 at bats.  If he is able to qualify as a catcher down the road, this could be an absolute steal for the Choppers.  He will begin his DTBL career in the outfield though.

With the eighth pick, the Darkhorses took the only non-rookie of the round.  Pitcher Carlos Martinez still has immense upside though at the tender age of 24.  The former Maverick struck out over a batter per inning and won ten games in his first full season as a member of the starting rotation.  The Darkhorses were really just a pitcher or two away from being a contender last season, so Martinez should play a big role if they are to close that gap.  Next, the Mavericks picked the third Cubs rookie of the first round, second baseman Addison Russell.  Russell will move over to shortstop a year from now, but provides huge upside at either middle infield position.  Finally, the Jackalope finished the first round by selecting third baseman Maikel Franco.  I’m going to go on the record and call Franco the steal of the first round.  It is not normal for a defending champion to have the opportunity to draft a player of Franco’s caliber with the tenth pick.  He is having a huge spring, which could mean that the 14 home runs and 50 RBI he put up in his partial season in 2015 was just the start of him tapping into his potential.  I was badly hoping Franco would slip to me with the next pick.

We have not seen the same flurry of in-draft trades as last year, but the Mavericks did complete a pair of deals early on.  First, they were finally able to unload Cody Allen after putting him on the block last summer.  The Cougars acquired Allen in exchange for their second round pick (12th overall).  It is a very interesting trade in that a second round pick seems like quite a haul for a guy who didn’t even have a certain roster spot on his old team.  But if you look at just how weak relief pitching was in this draft class, it absolutely makes sense for the Cougars.  If Allen had been part of this draft, he almost certainly would have been the first reliever selected.  And since there was such a large gap between him and the best available closer, a second round pick sounds about right.  But for the Mavericks, this is obviously a win.  They had little use for Allen with their bullpen full of some of the best relievers in baseball (mostly Yankees).  They used the acquired pick to add another young phenom, outfielder Byron Buxton.

The second trade involved some huge names who have recently changed MLB teams as well.  The Mavericks shipped outfielder Jayson Heyward to the Naturals for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  At times, Tulo has been one of the most valuable players in baseball.  But his stock has fallen a bit recently due to a long string of injuries and his depature from Colorado.  Toronto is a pretty good place to hit too though, and he is part of the best lineup in baseball.  So he still has huge upside.  As for Heyward, the Cubs made him the biggest offensive free agent acquisition of the winter.  The Naturals expect him to play a key role in their revamped offense.  Both Heyward and Tulowitzki had spent their entire DTBL careers with their previous team.  Heyward was a first round selection of the Mavericks in 2011.  Tulowitzki spent eight great years with the Naturals after they selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft.

We have reached the two week mark of the draft and have completed eight rounds.  That is a slower pace than recent years, but recent improvement seems to have us on track to complete the draft with plenty of time to spare.  Good luck with the remainder of the draft.  Just 10 days until Opening Day!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

2015 PAR Update

Monday, January 25th, 2016


With the great East Coast snowstorm of 2016 having rolled through this past weekend, I found myself with some unexpected free time.  I took some of that time to complete a task that I should have done months ago.  I finally updated the 2015 PAR numbers to be derived from stats including those accumulated during the 2015 season.  As a quick reminder, PAR is built upon five years worth of league-wide data.  During the season, that data comes from the five previously completed seasons.  However, when a season ends, I adjust the numbers to use the recently completed season in place of the numbers from five years prior.  So up until now, the ’15 PAR totals were based on data from 2010-2014.  I have now replaced 2010 with 2015 stats.  Normally, this post-season adjustment has minimal impact on the numbers and certainly wouldn’t be worth its own blog post.  However, there were some interesting outcomes this time around, so I’m going to take this opportunity to chronicle them.

First, this update caused a slight uptick in cumulative offensive PAR and a similar downswing for pitchers.  Across the league, these adjustments caused the league Batting PAR to increase to 201, up approximately 12 points, while pitchers dropped 11 points to 264.  In a perfect world, both totals would be right around 225, which is the number of points above last place that can be gained in all of the batting and pitching categories.  But as we’ve seen in almost all of the PAR numbers I’ve calculated to date, batters have fallen short of this total while pitchers have far exceeded it.  This is because there has been a consistent decline in offensive numbers over the time period I have examined, with pitchers going the opposite direction.  But we’re finally getting closer to the ideal league totals since the five year window is now almost exclusively seasons in which pitchers dominated.  The reason for the adjusted increase in offense and decline in pitching is because 2015 replaced a 2010 season that was far better for pitchers, meaning the hurdle for earning points above replacement for hitters has gone down while pitchers have a higher obstacle to exceed.

On an individual player basis, most hitters saw their PAR increase slightly while pitchers dropped a bit.  This was pretty consistent across the board, but a few noticeable changes are worth mentioning.  First, the MVP race became extremely interesting in part because Josh Donaldson and Paul Goldschmidt had nearly identical PAR totals for the Jackalope.  Prior to the update, both players had matching 8.45 PAR, with an ever so slight edge to Goldschmidt when expanding it to the third decimal place.  But now, Donaldson has passed Goldschmidt as the Batting PAR champion, 9.35 to 9.29.  The reason why Donaldson received more of a boost is because stolen bases became a little less valuable in the revised formula, which dinged Goldschmidt a bit.  Of course, league members had already deemed Donaldson more valuable anyway, having named him the league’s MVP this season.  There were a few place swaps down the Batting PAR leaderboard as well, but the top two switch was the most noteworthy.

On the pitching side, the changes were more consistent.  All of the top pitchers saw their numbers go down by just about the same amount, so there were no changes to the Pitching PAR top 10.  But there was an interesting change when looking at the historical numbers.  Prior to this update, Jake Arrieta’s 16.32 PAR was the highest single season mark in recorded PAR history (2010 to present), just barely edging Justin Verlander’s 16.31 in 2011.  However, Arrieta’s official PAR for 2015 has now dropped to 15.64, which drops him behind Verlander and 2014 Clayton Kershaw.  It is difficult to compare players from different seasons, but PAR is one tool to do so.  Arrieta had one of the best pitching seasons in league history, no matter how you look at it though.  Kershaw and Zack Greinke remain solidly in the top 10 single season Pitching PAR (since ’10) with their ’15 seasons as well.

Now I will start working on calculating PAR numbers for more past seasons.  2009 will be up next, with a goal of completing every year since 2005 before the start of the upcoming season.  Stay tuned for that.

Posted in Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »

Sifting Through the Mediocrity

Wednesday, November 11th, 2015


Well, this post is about a month overdue.  The World Series is over and we’re already well into awards season, yet I haven’t finished recapping the 2015 DTBL season.  I have a lot of writing to do next week with the awards announcements, so let’s get right to this.

So far, I’ve reviewed the seasons of the top three finishers and left the other seven for a single article.  The reason for that is simple:  very little separated the bottom seven.  All were in jeopardy of finishing in last place right up to the final days of the season.  In the end, the fourth place Choppers finished just 6 1/2 points ahead of the last place Kings.  That margin is less than what separated the Choppers from third place.  So there were obviously a lot of pretty weak teams in the league this year, which certainly helped the Jackalope cruise to an easy victory.  However, what is really interesting about the bottom seven is that none of them were even close to as poor as usual last place teams.  The Kings finished with 45 1/2 points, which most years would put them closer to the middle of the pack than last place.  In fact, the previous record for most points from a last place finisher was 39 1/2 points for the 2001 Panthers.  While I’m sure none of these seven teams are particularly pleased with the way the 2015 season finished for them, they can take solace that they all have some pretty obvious strengths and aren’t really too far from being title contending teams in the future.

Let’s start at the top of this tightly packed group.  The Choppers had a pretty rough go of it most of the year, but finished strong to lead this pack.  They finished in fourth place for the second consecutive year.  While they haven’t been in a tight title race in a very long time, they have quietly put together a nice string of above average seasons.  The Mavericks are the only other team to have finished in the top half of the league for three straight seasons now.  The Choppers had a very strong season from their pitching staff, slotting behind only the loaded staffs of the Jackalope and Mavericks in terms of pitching points.  The rotation, led by Chris Sale, went six deep with pitchers who accumulated at least a 4.0 PAR.  No other team had that sort of depth this year.  The offense was a bit of a disappointment, but Jose Bautista and Anthony Rizzo had great years.  Fourth place is a nice finish for this team that looks to be just an offensive player or two away from really making a title run.

A year ago, the Demigods came very close to earning their first DTBL championship.  Unfortunately for them, they came nowhere near repeating that kind of season in 2015.  The reason is obvious:  their pitching took a huge step backwards.  Losing Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery before the season began proved to be too much to overcome.  Jose Fernandez’s return from the same surgery limited him to just 65 innings.  Not surprisingly, Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto were unable to match their very lofty ’14 numbers.  All told, the Demigods’ 19 pitching points were not even close to what they needed/expected.  The offense was actually really good.  Jose Altuve had another strong campaign and J.D. Martinez wound up being one of the steals of the draft.  Nobody else had eye-popping numbers, but this was a very solid offensive squad from top to bottom.  Had the pitching staff lived up to expectations, this would have been a top three team for sure.

Things definitely didn’t go as planned for the defending champions.  The Naturals slipped to sixth place, their worst finish since 2008.  Interestingly enough, this is the second straight year that the defending champ fell all the way to sixth place.  For the Naturals sake, hopefully they don’t continue to follow the post-championship dive of the 2013 Kings and fall to dead last next year.  So what went wrong for the Naturals?  Well, for one, Miguel Cabrera just wasn’t himself.  He had a decent year, but not even close to his usual form.  Newly acquired Yasiel Puig was a major disappointment.  And injuries hampered a whole bunch of their key players throughout the year.  That being said, Nolan Arenado emerged as a MVP candidate and Joey Votto was outstanding as well.  On the mound, they had a little trouble with the back-end of the rotation.  David Price and Carlos Carrasco were the bright spots, but the rest of the starters were not great.  On the other hand, the bullpen was very good, leading the league in saves.  Certainly a disappointing year for the Naturals who have been one of the league’s premier franchises in the past decade.  But there is little reason to doubt they could bounce back near the top next year.

The Moonshiners are nothing if not consistent.  For the third consecutive year, they finished in seventh place.  Obviously, that’s not an ideal spot to establish consistency though.  While the results were the same, the process and team make-up were not.  They completely revamped their squad in March, trading for Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez.  Those two were very productive, especially Greinke who had the best season of his career.  Along with those two, the Moonshiners may have made the best move of the year picking up Dallas Keuchel from free agency in April.  With those three acquisitions, it is hard to believe the Moonshiners weren’t able to improve their final standing.  Unfortunately, that’s about the extent of their players who had great seasons.  Especially troubling was the lack of offensive firepower.  Prince Fielder led the team in batting PAR at 3.4, by far the lowest total for a team leader.  Despite the three previously mentioned pitchers having excellent seasons, the Moonshiners pitching staff was only mediocre since they got very little from anyone besides those three.  They will need strong seasons out of a lot more players next year to get out of this seventh place rut.

Despite finishing in eighth place, the Gators may have had the most positively surprising offense in the league.  Dee Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes, Nelson Cruz and Starling Marte helped lead the Gators to the fourth most batting points in the league.  This is a franchise that had been one of the worst offensive teams in the league for six straight years.  So this was a huge step in the right direction.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff didn’t move in that same direction, finishing with the same number of pitching points (19) as last year.  Michael Wacha was clearly the staff ace, but there wasn’t much behind him in the rotation.  Unfortunately, this is the fifth straight year the Gators have finished in a bottom three position.  However, this was clearly the best team they have had in that stretch as they finished with their highest point total since 2010.  So there is reason to be optimistic for the Gators’ future.

If there is one team whose final ranking is not at all indicative of the talent level of the squad, it is the Cougars.  Early on, they looked like a team that could compete for the title.  But a series of late season injuries and performance drop-offs caused them to tumble all the way to a ninth place finish.  Losing Adam Wainwright for most of the season prevented the Cougars from having one of the better pitching staffs in the league.  Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer were fantastic, but they just didn’t have the depth they had hoped for.  But it was their offense that caused the late season free-fall.  Jose Abreu and Charlie Blackmon were drafted to boost the offense, and pretty much lived up to expectations.  But those two along with Chris Davis weren’t enough to keep them afloat.  As mentioned, several key players got hurt late in the season, which pretty much tanked their season.  Again, this is not your typical ninth place team.  The Cougars have the talent of a top half team.

Finally, we come to the dumpster fire that was the Kings 2015 season.  Just two years ago, the Kings won their fifth DTBL title.  Boy does that feel like a distant memory now.  What’s really shocking about this fall is the way the team flipped the script during this season.  Early on, they were riding Max Scherzer and Shelby Miller to surprisingly having one of the better pitching staffs in the league, but their offense was holding them back.  But then in the second half, the pitching completely fell apart while the offense turned things around to finish in the top half of the league in batting points.  In the end, their pitching was pretty terrible and the main culprit for the last place finish.  Scherzer and Jeurys Familia were the only above average pitchers on the squad.  Offensively, their first two draft picks were very solid:  outfielders Mookie Betts and Gregory Polanco.  A.J. Pollock became an elite player as well.  So there are some reasons to be optimistic about the Kings’ bats.  Also, for the glass half full crowd, this was simply not your typical last place team in terms of points and talent.  Plus they will have the chance to pick first in the deepest draft in league history.  So not all is lost for this proud franchise, but 2015 was a complete disaster.

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Demigods, Gators, Kings, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Players of the Month: July

Sunday, August 2nd, 2015


As the temperature started to heat up this summer, so did the DTBL Championship race.  The Jackalope finished July in the same spot as all of the previous months:  first place.  But what was once a 20+ lead has been trimmed to single digits entering the season’s final two months.  This has had nothing to do with the Jackalope falling back to the pack.  They have steadily held around 85 standings points.  But what has changed is the total of their closest competition, the Mavericks.  The Mavs are closing in on the 80 point mark as well, thanks to their pitching staff starting to materialize the way most expected before the season.  Also, the offense has received a huge lift from a player that I will be touching on in just a bit.  Before we get to the players of the month, here are the guys who earned weekly honors in July:

Batters of the Week:

Week 13 (6/29 – 7/5) – J.D. Martinez, Demigods
Week 14 (7/6 – 7/12) – Mike Trout, Mavericks
Week 15 (7/17 – 7/19) – Adrian Gonzalez, Darkhorses
Week 16 (7/20 – 7/26) – Carlos Gonzalez, Kings

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 13 (6/29 – 7/5) – Jordan Zimmermann, Naturals
Week 14 (7/6 – 7/12) – Chris Sale, Choppers
Week 15 (7/17 – 7/19) – Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
Week 16 (7/20 – 7/26) – Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses

The Batter of the Month race came down to two of the guys listed above while the pitching award was a four horse race won by a guy who has been nearly unhittable for two straight months.  Here are the award winners for July 2015:

Batter of the Month:

Mike Trout, Mavericks
.367 AVG, 12 HR, 24 RBI, 20 R, 1 SB, 2.32 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Zack Greinke, Moonshiners
0.95 ERA, 0.579 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 34 K, 3.69 PAR

Trout and Carlos Gonzalez had nearly identical numbers in the month of July.  It wound up being the one home run and stolen base advantage that tilted this award to the Mavericks outfielder.  As mentioned above, Trout has been largely responsible for the Mavericks making a significant dent into the Jackalope lead.

There were four pitchers who led the way in July, coming from just two MLB teams.  Greinke took the top spot, barely edging out his Dodgers teammate Clayton Kershaw.  And not far behind those two were a pair of Cubs:  Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.  But in the end, Greinke’s incredible 43 inning scoreless streak, dating back to mid-June, sealed this honor.  Greinke allowed just four runs in the month of July and has allowed more than three runs in a start just once this entire season.  Plagued by poor run support early in the year, he was able to add four victories in the month too.

Posted in Awards, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »

DTBL All Star Awards Outlook

Monday, July 27th, 2015


Welcome to a slightly delayed version of the All Star awards outlook.  These numbers are all culled from stats as of the All Star break, as the season’s midpoint is always a good time to look back on how the season has gone and look forward to exciting pennant races.  Well, perhaps not in DTBL itself, but one never knows!

Without further ado, here are your category leaders at the break.

»Batting Average: Miguel Cabrera, Naturals, .350
»Home Runs: Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope: 27
»RBI: Nolan Arenado, Naturals and Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope: 70
»Runs: Mike Trout, Mavericks: 68
»Stolen Bases: Billy Hamilton, Naturals: 44
»ERA: Zack Greinke, Moonshiners: 1.39
»WHIP: Max Scherzer, Kings: .780
»Wins: Gerrit Cole, Jackalope: 13
»Saves: Mark Melancon, Jackalope: 29
»Strikeouts: Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks: 160

On to the awards!

Rookie of the Year:

Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners – 0.997 WHIP, 2.34 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 107 K, 6.8 PAR
Jake Arrieta, Jackalope – 0.986 WHIP, 2.66 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 123 K, 6.7 PAR
Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses – 0.924 WHIP, 2.14 ERA, 9 W, 0 SV, 112 K, 6.6 PAR

As with the Memorial Day outlook, the Rookie of the Year category is dominated by pitchers.  All three of Keuchel, Arrieta, and deGrom sat in the top 10 of pitching related PAR at the break.  And, really, a case could be made for any of these pitchers to be the front runner for the award.  deGrom holds a slight edge in WHIP and ERA; Arrieta and Keuchel are tied in wins;  Arrieta holds the edge in strikeouts; and PAR gives Keuchel the slight edge.  I don’t think anyone would be truly surprised if these three are at the top of the ballot come the postseason.

Honorable mention goes to a trio of outfielders, Charlie Blackmon of the Cougars (who cracked the top 10 of hitter PAR at the break), Mookie Betts of the Kings, and George Springer of the Darkhorses.

Cy Young:

Max Scherzer, Kings – 0.780 WHIP, 2.11 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 150 K, 9.6 PAR
Zack Greinke, Moonshiners – 0.843 WHIP, 1.39 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 106 K, 7.6 PAR

Once again, Max Scherzer reigns supreme at the top of the Cy Young list.  A ridiculous WHIP and strikeout total lead to a PAR that’s two full points above Zack Greinke.  However, Greinke’s pre All Star break performance was nothing short of extraordinary in its own right, and makes him a worthy companion for Scherzer.  Greinke hurled 35 and 2/3 scoreless innings going into the break, dropping his ERA to a ridiculous 1.39.  With all the great pitchers in baseball this year, it remains to be seen if Scherzer and Greinke can stay on top of this list, or if any of the pitchers listed below can join the truly elite.

Honorable mention goes to Gerrit Cole of the Jackalope, Sonny Gray of the Jackalope, Chris Archer of the Cougars, and the trio of ROY candidates discussed above.

Most Valuable Player:

Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope – .340 BA, 60 R, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 16 SB, 6.4 PAR
Mike Trout, Mavericks – .312 BA, 68 R, 26 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, 5.4 PAR

Given Bryce Harper’s otherworldly season, it’s a bit strange not seeing him at the top of the MVP race.  However, in fantasy baseball, stolen bases still matter, and while Harper mashes the cover off the ball, the speed simply isn’t there.  In contract, the speed is there for the two leaders at the midway point, Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Trout.  Surprisingly, Trout features the bigger power numbers, coming in at 26 homers to Goldschmidt’s 21.  Unsurprisingly, Trout also leads the league in runs with 68  However, Goldschmidt dominates most of the other categories, with a sparkling .340 batting average, a league leading 70 RBI, and a remarkable 16 stolen bases (to Trout’s 9).  In fact, the 16 steals for Goldschmidt are only two off his career DTBL high.  Trout is an amazing player, and it will take a lot for Goldschmidt to hold him off, but as of now, this MVP nod is well deserved, for both Goldschmidt and the Jackalope as a team.

Honorable mention goes to Bryce Harper of the Darkhorses, Giancarlo Stanton of the Jackalope, and the surprising Todd Frazier of the Darkhorses.

 

Posted in Awards, Cougars, Darkhorses, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Memorial Day Awards Outlook

Monday, May 25th, 2015


Welcome to a slightly amended version of the 2015 DTBL Awards Outlook.  So as to differentiate the numbers and players I’m examining with what Kevin is doing, there will be three Awards Outlook articles this season.  This is the first; the second will follow at the All Star break, with the third at Labor Day.  These seem like reasonable benchmarks for the baseball season, landing on big holidays and milestones rather than doing it monthly.  Plus, this will allow Kevin to focus more on monthly aspects with his postings.

That being said, these articles will focus on three things.  First, in a new addition, I’ll be listing the individual category leaders in all the hitting and pitching categories.  In this way, we can better track who’s been on point for an entire season, or if they’re more of a flash in the pan.  Second, I’ll be visiting the awards categories in the same fashion as last year, but instead of a top 5 ballot style listing, this year will focus only on the top two for each category.  Honorable mentions will go to players who are on the cusp, but can only knock on the door of being truly elite.  PAR and ESPN’s player rater will be relied upon as main benchmarks to set the awards leaders.

Here are the DTBL category leaders through Memorial Day, 2015.

  • Batting Average: Dee Gordon, Gators – .376
  • Home Runs: Nelson Cruz, Gators – 17
  • Runs Batted In: Bryce Harper, Darkhorses – 41
  • Runs Scored: Bryce Harper, Darkhorses – 39
  • Stolen Bases: Dee Gordon, Gators – 17
  • Earned Run Average: Zack Greinke, Moonshiners – 1.48
  • WHIP Ratio: Zack Greinke, Moonshiners – .869
  • Wins: Felix Hernandez, Moonshiners – 7
  • Saves: Glen Perkins, Naturals – 16
  • Strikeouts: Corey Klueber, Demigods – 83

Rookie of the Year:

  • Dallas Keuchel, Starting Pitcher, Moonshiners – .947 WHIP, 1.78 ERA, 5 W, 0 Sv, 39 Ks, 3.2 PAR
  • Jacob DeGrom, Starting Pitcher, Darkhorses – 1.114 WHIP, 2.75 ERA, 5 W, 0 Sv, 54Ks, 2.7 PAR

Unlike last year, this year’s rookie crop doesn’t seem to be quite as strong overall.  Rookie pitchers definitely have an edge in this category over hitters, however, as exemplified by Dallas Keuchel and Jacob DeGrom.  DeGrom was a high draft pick, taken by the Darkhorses in the second round.  His stellar numbers were to be expected, and he is certainly not disappointing.  He adds another fine young arm to Darkhorses growing stable of them.  Keuchel, on the other hand, went undrafted.  He was the subject of a fierce free agent bidding battle after the first week of the season, and he has not disappointed the Moonshiners since, spinning a 9th overall pitching PAR after missing two starts during his time as a free agent.  He has settled in nicely as a very worthy third starter on the Moonshiners staff.

Apologies go to Jake Arrieta of the Jackalope, Dellin Betances of the Mavericks, Marcus Semien of the Gators, and Brad Boxberger of the Darkhorses.

Cy Young:

  • Max Scherzer, Starting Pitcher, Kings – .881 WHIP, 1.67 ERA, 5 W, 0 Sv, 72 Ks, 4.7 PAR
  • Felix Hernandez, Starting Pitcher, Moonshiners – .941 WHIP, 2.19 ERA, 7 W, 0 Sv, 63Ks, 4.6 PAR

Cy Young is an extremely tight category at the top.  There’s separation between these two pitchers and the rest of the field, but very little separates Max Scherzer and Felix Hernandez.  King Felix has been everything the Moonshiners could ask for after a draft day trade, combining his usually stellar ratios with wins, unlike in seasons past.  He looks to maintain his place as the ace of a revamped Moonshiners staff for years to come.  Meanwhile Scherzer has rebounded from a “slow” start to the season, where a lack of run support led to some hard luck losses.  However, a move to the National League has worked wonders for his overall numbers, as the usual filthy strikeout numbers are now combined with ridiculous ratios.  This race will be one to watch for the entire season.

Apologies go to Zack Greinke of the Moonshiners, Sonny Gray of the Jackalope, and Shelby Miller of the Kings.

Most Valuable Player

  • Bryce Harper, Outfielder, Darkhorses – .333 Avg, 39 R, 16 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, 3.7 PAR
  • Paul Goldschmidt, First Baseman, Jackalope – .333 Avg, 34 R, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 8 SB, 3.6 PAR

MVP may be an even tighter category between first and second place than even Cy Young.  Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt do it all.  Goldschmidt provides a great blend of power (12 homers), speed (8 steals) and high average.  His continued journey into baseball’s elite is certainly a reason why the Jackalope felt comfortable parting with long time stalwart Albert Pujols during the draft.  Harper is finally tapping into his vast talent, playing at a level that finally meets the hype and Sports Illustrated covers.  He leads DTBL in runs and RBI, is one short in the home run category, and is also providing elite average.  Both players provide numbers that can carry any offense, have the Jackalope and Darkhorses sitting at the top of the DTBL standings, and can keep them there throughout the season.  Definitely the elite production that teams are looking for out of their superstars.

Apologies go to Nelson Cruz of the Gators, Justin Upton of the Naturals, and Mike Trout of the Mavericks.

Posted in Awards, Darkhorses, Demigods, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Players of the Month: April

Saturday, May 2nd, 2015


Welcome to a new monthly feature: the naming of a Batter and Pitcher of the Month. For some quick clarification, this is not the same thing as Mike’s monthly DTBL Awards outlook, which he has generously volunteered to do again this year. Those articles focus on cumulative performances of players throughout the season on the leading candidates for the three post-season awards. Look for his post-April review in the next couple days. Instead, this new feature is based solely on the stats accumulated in the month being reviewed. The Batter and Pitcher of the Month will be objectively selected as the players who accumulated the highest PAR for the month. I’m not going to write much about the award winners, especially this month, since Mike will probably cover the same guys in his article.

In the near future, I’ll be posting a new page on the site which will list all of the yearly, monthly and weekly award winners. These honors will also eventually show up on the player pages. Behind the scenes, I’ve already been capturing Batter/Pitcher of the Week winners each week. Again, these winners are the players who accumulate the highest PAR during the week. Basically, they are the players who show up on the main page under “Week’s Best” after the Monday morning update. I’m not going to take the time to write articles for the weekly awards, but plan to do so for the monthly winners. FYI, here are the players who have won the Batter and Pitcher of the Week so far this year:

Batters of the Week:
Week 1 – Adrian Gonzalez, Darkhorses
Week 2 – Nelson Cruz, Gators
Week 3 – Mark Teixeira, Cougars

Pitchers of the Week:
Week 1 – Sonny Gray, Jackalope
Week 2 – Jacob deGrom, Darkhorses
Week 3 – Jake Arrieta, Jackalope

Interesting enough, none of those players were the winners of the monthly awards. Here are the award winners for April 2015.

Batter of the Month:
Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope
.338 AVG, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 18 R, 5 SB, 1.65 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:
Felix Hernandez, Moonshiners
1.82 ERA, 0.808 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 2.89 PAR

It was a very tight race among the hitters. Goldschmidt barely edged out Adrian Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz and Jose Altuve. His combination of power and speed (5 HR, 5 SB) proved to be the difference. There were a whole bunch of pitchers who had great Aprils. Chris Archer was right there with Hernandez, with Gerrit Cole and Johnny Cueto not far behind.

Posted in Awards, Jackalope, Moonshiners | No Comments »

2015 Season Preview: Part I

Wednesday, April 1st, 2015


The 2015 baseball season is almost upon us, so it is time to take a look inside the crystal ball to see how this season will turn out.  Actually, there may be no need for that.  Back to the Future II already has this covered.  As foretold in that movie, the Cubs will end their 107 year championship drought by winning the 2015 World Series.  Of course, the movie depicted Miami as the World Series losers, so one can only assume the Marlins will get shipped to the AL at some point this season as Commissioner Manfred’s first highly controversial decision in office.  But since the movie didn’t touch on results from random fantasy leagues, I will once again preview the upcoming DTBL season using a set of stat projections.

Check out my post from two years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections.  Nothing has changed here.  Once again, I’m using ZiPS projections for all stat categories except saves (Steamer).  Stat projections for all 28 players currently on each team’s roster are used, except for a couple of cases where a player has already been ruled out for the season with an injury.  While all players are included, the team totals are scaled to match the regular roster size of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.  So even your late round draft picks who you may hope to leave on the bench all season do play a role in these projections.

Two years ago, the projections wound up providing a very accurate picture of how the season would play out, with most teams closely meeting their predicted place of finish.  Last year, not so much.  The Kings were projected to repeat as champions, but instead needed a late season rally to avoid finishing dead last.  Meanwhile, the team that actually won the league, the Naturals, were projected to finish tied for fifth.  So take all of this with several huge grains of salt.  It should provide an interesting look at the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team though.  Without further ado, here are the three teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings this year.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (7th)
  • Wins – 10th (9th)
  • Saves – 2nd (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (8th)
  • Total Points – 10th (9th)

Summary:

Well, somebody has to be last.  One thing I should point out is that the stat projections have all of these teams at the bottom finishing with far more points than they accumulated last year, with a much smaller gap between the top and bottom teams.  So the Gators aren’t really as far from being a contender as these projections might lead you to believe.  They do have a similarly constructed squad to last year though.  They are a team of speedsters with a strong bullpen.  They lack power and do not have an obvious ace in their starting rotation.  Michael Wacha and Alex Wood are a pair of guys who could assume that role this year though.  Perhaps the player they will count on above all others to exceed this projection is last year’s first round pick, Wil Myers.  Myers had a disappointing DTBL rookie campaign and will look to legitimize his spot on the roster this year.  This is a very young team so there are plenty of breakout candidates.  Clearly, they are going to need several guys to do so, particularly in the power categories, to become a contender.  While the bullpen is a strength, that saves projection may be a little generous since Steamer has free agent Rafael Soriano pegged at 21 saves.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (10th)
  • Wins – 8th (6th-T)
  • Saves – 8th (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (7th)
  • Total Points – 9th (7th)

Summary:

The Moonshiners are one of several teams that attempted to reshape their roster through big March trades.  For years, they have been a little short of a championship contender, largely because they lacked ace pitchers who could carry the staff to the top of the standings in most pitching categories.  But now they have Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, two of the best pitchers in baseball.  Not surprisingly, their pitching projections are much stronger this year as a result.  However, the overall prediction is not great because the offense appears to have taken a step backwards, and the offense wasn’t great as it was.  Gone is Josh Donaldson, who was one of their few bright spots a year ago.  But a healthy Prince Fielder could be just what the doctor ordered.  Rookie Jorge Soler will be asked to provide an immediate power boost as well.  On the pitching side, the projections are so-so for a much improved staff.  But if the offense is at least a little better than predicted, Hernandez and Greinke could help lead the Moonshiners back into contention.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 6th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th-T (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (8th)
  • Wins – 2nd (10th)
  • Saves – 9th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (9th)
  • Total Points – 8th (6th)

Summary:

The last three years, the projections have loved the Kings.  But then last season happened and the entire narrative of this franchise changed.  No longer are they a powerhouse with a bunch of the best players in the league.  Now they are a squad with aging stars and very little to hang their hats on.  To be fair, part of the reason why they do not project well this year is because so many of their players are coming off injury plagued seasons.  As a result, those players are projected to play less than full seasons again this year.  And that causes the full team projection to come in with far fewer total at bats than any other team.  Presumably, even if those players don’t stay healthy, they will be replaced by guys who are.  So the Kings offensive counting stat projections may be a little low.  Nonetheless, they do not look like a contender this year.  But they do have a couple very interesting young players who could be part of future Kings’ contending squads.  Their first two draft picks, outfielders Mookie Betts and Gregory Polanco, have a ton of upside.  The pitching staff is a major question mark with Max Scherzer being the only dependable pitcher on the squad.  This could be a bit of a transition year for the Kings, but it is hard to imagine them suffering through injuries to the extent they did in ’14. 8th place would be a pretty disappointing finish for them.

Posted in Gators, Kings, Moonshiners | No Comments »

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