Category: Moonshiners

  • 2014 Season Preview: Part I

    Choppers pitcher Chris Sale

    For the third straight year, we’re going to preview the upcoming DTBL season by using player stat projections to determine the projected order of finish.  These are NOT my personal predictions, so don’t hold it against me if I have your team projected much lower than you expect.  For a primer, I recommend reading the first part of last year’s preview, where I explained the methodology for the projections.  I did it exactly the same way this year.  ZiPS projections were used for all categories, except for saves, where Steamer projections were utilized instead.

    Here’s the cliff-notes version.  I used the projected stats for all players on each DTBL teams roster (post-draft) to compute team totals in all ten categories.  Because I don’t want to make any guesses on how you plan on utilizing your extra players, all 28 players are included, even those who you may plan on keeping in the minors all year.  Actually, that’s not quite true.  I decided to exclude the handful of pitchers who have recently undergone Tommy John surgery.  I didn’t think it made much sense to include players who probably won’t play this year.

    Multipliers were used to normalize the stats so that the totals are based on approximately 14 full seasons from hitters and 9 from pitchers.  So, while your bench players are included in the projections, the team totals are adjusted depending on how many hitters or pitchers are on your roster.  It should be pointed out that my method does unnecessarily penalize teams who plan to use an extra starting pitcher in a relief pitcher’s slot.  Those teams should be expected to exceed the projected totals in wins and strikeouts since they are likely to exceed the IP totals of the rest of the teams.  So keep that in mind.

    If you are wondering if these projections are even remotely worthwhile, keep in mind that last year’s projections turned out to be quite accurate.  They correctly predicted the top two teams, albeit in the wrong order.  They also identified the Cougars as the team that would take a big step forward, which they did, as well as the Moonshiners going in the opposite direction.  Eight of the ten teams finished within two spots of their predicted slot.  By no means am I suggesting that the teams at the bottom of these projections should give up before the season starts.  But this should give you a pretty good idea of the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team heading into the season.  I will try to point out instances where I don’t trust the projections for certain teams though.

    On to part one of our season preview.  These are the three teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.  We’ll start at the very bottom and work our way up.

    Mike’s Moonshiners

    Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
    • Home Runs – 9th (5th)
    • Runs Batted In – 10th (8th)
    • Runs Scored – 5th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 5th (3rd-T)
    • Earned Run Average – 10th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 10th (8th)
    • Wins – 7th (1st-T)
    • Saves – 5th (7th)
    • Strike Outs – 10th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 9th (7th-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th)
    • Total Points – 10th (7th)

    Summary:

    Just two years ago, the Moonshiners finished 1 1/2 points away from winning their first league title.  Last year, they had a hugely disappointing year, falling to 7th place.  If these projections are to be believed though, this season will be even worse.  The Moonshiners biggest problem is their starting pitching.  If you glance at ESPN’s SP player rater from last season, not one of the top 25 pitchers are on the Moonshiners roster.  So they lack a true ace who can carry them in most of the pitching categories.  The good news is they will have the benefit of a sixth starting pitcher with Drew Smyly occupying a bullpen spot.  A big year from him would give them a huge boost.  The offensive projections aren’t great either.  They seem to have solid players across the roster, but like the rotation, they don’t have a ton of high volume stat producers.  The Moonshiners have never finished worse than 7th place and have been a consistent contender.  The key for them to avoid their worst season ever will be to have a few guys break out and become stars and for Prince Fielder to return to being one of the elite power hitters in his new hitter friendly environment in Texas.

    Greg’s Gators

    Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 4th (5th)
    • Home Runs – 10th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In – 9th (10th)
    • Runs Scored – 9th (8th)
    • Stolen Bases – 1st (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average – 9th (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 7th (6th)
    • Wins – 10th (10th)
    • Saves – 2nd (3rd)
    • Strike Outs – 8th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 9th (9th)
    • Total Points – 9th (9th)

    Summary:

    Well, no other team in these projections looks as similar to their 2013 results as the Gators.  In every single category, they are projected to finish within one spot of where they were last year.  This is somewhat surprising because they are a much younger squad now.  Gone is Gator lifer Derek Jeter.  And in are Wil Myers, Matt Adams, Michael Wacha and some other young stars in the making.  They now have one of the better core of young players in the league that also includes guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Jean Segura.  They do have a few weak spots and a very unproven rotation, which leads to a projected finish near the bottom of the league.  Two categories they don’t have to worry about are stolen bases and saves.  They have plenty of speed and possibly the best bullpen in the league.  If a couple of the young starting pitchers pan out, the Gators could easily have their best season in many, many years.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 9th (8th)
    • Home Runs – 5th (1st)
    • Runs Batted In – 8th (1st)
    • Runs Scored – 6th (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (10th)
    • Earned Run Average – 7th (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 8th (5th)
    • Wins – 5th (3rd)
    • Saves – 10th (1st)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (6th)
    • Total Batting Points – 7th (3rd-T)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th (2nd)
    • Total Points – 8th (3rd)

    Summary:

    Now we come to easily the most surprising projection of all, and the one for which I am the most suspicious.  The Choppers were the breakout team of 2013, finishing in third place.  They were a title contender until late in the season.  So what gives?  The projections show them taking a huge step backwards in both hitting and pitching.  Last year, they led the league in home runs and RBI, but are expected to finish 5th and 8th respectively this year.  It’s true they didn’t really add any sluggers in the draft, but that still seems like an odd fall from the top of the power categories.  Healthier years from Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson, plus Mark Trumbo moving to the thin air of Arizona should keep them in the top half of the league in those categories.  The pitching staff will be interesting to watch.  Chris Sale was the shining star last year.  Alex Cobb is the newcomer to the rotation.  The one category drop which totally makes sense is saves.  The Choppers will not win that category again this year.  But they have plenty of potential closers who should keep them out of the basement.  In summary, I’m going to bet the over on this Choppers projection.

  • Bold New Faces

    Jackalope outfielder Yasiel Puig

    Baseball is supposed to be fun.  The first few players taken in the DTBL Draft all seem to understand that.  Besides their prodigious talent, what these guys have in common is a youthful exuberance that occasionally rubs their opponents, and sometimes even their teammates, the wrong way.  But only a curmudgeon who insists that the unwritten rules of the game be followed to a T wouldn’t enjoy watching these guys play.  And when it comes to fantasy baseball, you definitely want them on your team.

    The 22nd Annual DTBL Draft kicked off Wednesday morning.  Almost exactly 24 hours later, the first round was complete.  The round featured as strong of a set of young talent as we’ve seen in quite some time.  Perhaps there have been stronger drafts at the very top spot or two, but the number of young superstars taken in this draft so far has been quite impressive, and should keep the draft entertaining for several more rounds.

    The Jackalope kicked things off by selecting the Cuban phenom, outfielder Yasiel Puig.  Yes, Puig Mania has made its way to the DTBL.  It took Puig all of about a week after making his MLB debut last summer before he became the talk of the league.  From the monster home runs, mind-boggling throws and blazing sprints around the bases, Puig proved himself to be the definition of a five tool player.  Sure, some of those tools are easier to harness than others.  But there is nothing he can’t do on a baseball field.  Really, the only thing that kept him from being a complete no-brainer with the first overall pick was the Jackalope’s already full outfield and perhaps a small worry about a second year flame-out.  But the decision to take Puig couldn’t have been too difficult.  In just four months in the big leagues, he hit .319 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  Most years, he would have been an absolute lock for Rookie of the Year with those numbers, but we’ll get to why that was not the case in a bit.  The sky is the limit for this guy.

    With the second pick, the Gators took another young phenom outfielder in Wil Myers.  Prior to last season, he was traded from Kansas City to Tampa Bay before making his big league debut, a very rare occurrence for such a highly touted prospect.  Once he got the call to Tampa, he did not disappoint.  He slugged 13 home runs in 335 MLB at bats on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.  Myers is probably the biggest power prospect in this draft.  He doesn’t have Puig’s speed or flare, but he already looks the part as a middle of the order power hitter.  He will join a Gators offense which has gone through a remarkable makeover the past two years.  He joins Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Leonys Martin in a very exciting and young Gators outfield.

    Trivia question:  which team finished second to the Kings in batting points last year.  Unless your name is Dom, you probably didn’t know the answer is the Demigods.  Only a truly dreadful pitching staff relegated them to an eighth place finish rather than being a title contender.  But was their pitching staff really that bad, or just a bit unlucky?  Well, Johnny Cueto missed a majority of the season with an injury.  Cole Hamels only won eight games despite excellent peripheral numbers.  Doug Fister was his usual solid, underrated self.  And Yu Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Enter the third pick in the draft, Jose Fernandez.  For the second straight year, the Demigods acquired the best strikeout pitcher in the draft with their first pick (Darvish last year).  Fernandez had an absolutely phenomenal rookie campaign for the Marlins.  12 wins, a sub 1.0 WHIP, 2.19 ERA and 187 strike outs.  He beat out Puig to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.  The addition of Fernandez could turn the Demigods league worst pitching staff into one of the best.  I know there is a long way to go in this draft, but if you are looking for a sleeper team this year, the Demigods would be a solid bet.

    Here are three awesome GIFs of the top three draft choices enjoying their home runs… yes, including the pitcher Fernandez.  Wait, Puig’s was actually a triple, which makes it even better.  Which one is your favorite?

    The fun didn’t end with the first three picks though.  With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners elected to go with the best available player, third baseman Josh Donaldson.  Last year, Donaldson pretty much came out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate, or at least he would have been if we lived in a world where Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout didn’t exist.  He hit .301 with 24 home runs and 93 RBI.  Although he figured to be an early draft pick, the Moonshiners are a bit of a surprise suitor since they already have David Wright and Kyle Seager at the hot corner.  But all of them figure to be on their Opening Day roster.  Donaldson should provide a solid boost to a strong core of Moonshiners hitters.

    With the fifth pick, the Darkhorses went even younger, taking 21 year old third baseman Xander Bogaerts (he’s a couple months younger than Fernandez).  2013 was quite a year for Bogaerts.  He progressed from highly touted AA prospect, to MLB utility player, to World Series starting third baseman.  Bogaerts is considered an elite prospect because of his bat and his glove.  The former makes him an attractive fantasy prospect as well, especially since he will likely shift over to shortstop next year.  This is the kind of pick that is becoming the norm in the first round of DTBL drafts.  Highly ranked prospects don’t stay on the board very long, no matter how little experience the player has.

    The Cougars were the only team to pick a non-DTBL rookie in the first round.  They selected outfielder Domonic Brown with the sixth pick.  Despite only being 26 himself, Brown is actually three years removed from his one year of DTBL experience.  He was a disappointment in that year with the Demigods and was starting to look like a bust of a former big time prospect until his breakout 2013 season.  He slugged 27 home runs with 83 RBI for the Phillies.  In the previous three seasons, he hit just 12 homers while bouncing up and down between MLB and AAA.  But now he appears to be here to stay and should give the Cougars a solid power boost in their outfield.

    There was no first round pick with a wider boom-to-bust potential than the Naturals selection of speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton with the seventh pick.  Either Hamilton is going to win stolen bases for the Naturals by himself by being an every day top of the order hitter, or he is going to be too much of a liability with the bat that the Reds will use him almost exclusively as a pinch runner or send him back to the minors.  There’s almost no in between for him.  But if there is a team that can afford to take this gamble, it is the Naturals.  They have guys like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki who will pretty much assure them of finishing high in the power categories, allowing them to play a one dimensional player.  But that one dimension could be unlike anything this league has ever seen.  Hamilton has stolen over 85 bases in each of his three full professional seasons and stole 13 bases in his first 13 major league games (with just 22 plate appearances!)  This is going to be fun to watch.

    With the eighth pick, the Choppers selected second baseman Matt Carpenter.  He was sort of the NL version of Donaldson, suddenly breaking out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate.  He hit .318 and led all of baseball in hits (199), runs scored (124) and doubles (55).  He doesn’t have great power or speed, but his high extra base totals led to plenty of RBI as well (78), making him an elite three category player.  If some of those doubles start going over the wall, his value could soar even more.  The Choppers were the surprise team of ’13 and appear primed to make a serious run at the title this year.  Carpenter should help them in that endeavor.

    The first round ended with two more young pitchers going off the board.  The Mavericks grabbed Gerrit Cole with the ninth pick.  The first overall pick of the 2011 amateur draft, Cole reached the big leagues for the Pirates last summer and pitched extremely well.  In fact, he only got better as the season progressed.  Some were a little concerned by his mediocre strike out rate in AAA, but he was actually more effective in that regard in the majors.  And throwing his fastball in the high 90’s, it is hard to imagine him not continuing that trend this season.  This year, he will try to replace Matt Harvey as best he can for the Mavericks.  But in 2015, a rotation of Harvey, Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Mat Latos almost sounds unfair to the rest of the league.

    Finally, the Kings concluded the first round by taking pitcher Shelby Miller.  For the first few months of the year, Miller was one of the best pitchers in baseball and appeared well on his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award until Fernandez and Puig burst onto the scene and stole his thunder.  Miller faded a bit in the second half and then was almost unheard from in October for the Cardinals.  But that was probably the result of going well past his previous career high in innings and maybe the Cardinals being a little cautious as well.  If he can put together a full season that resembles the first half of 2013, he will quickly become one of the league’s elite pitchers.

    For the first time in six years, no first round picks were traded.  On a related note, it was the first year in quite some time that the Mavericks didn’t make multiple first round selections.  But there was one trade completed during the round.  The Kings dealt second baseman Ben Zobrist to the Gators for outfielder Michael Cuddyer.  This was a trade of excess pieces for both teams.  After drafting Myers, the Gators had six outfielders on their roster while the Kings had four middle infield keepers.  So this trade made sense for both sides to fill other needs.  Zobrist has bounced between several positions in recent years, but has returned to the infield this year where he is much more valuable.  He will provide the Gators with solid power and speed at a very thin position.  Meanwhile, Cuddyer returns to the Kings squad that drafted and then cut him just a couple years ago.  Cuddyer is coming off the best year of his career, hitting .331 with 20 home runs in 2013.

    The first round was certainly a lot of fun.  Let’s see what the rest of the draft brings us.

  • Not That Bad

    Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt

    The DTBL season ended more than a month ago, so now seems like the perfect time to finish part 3 of my 2013 season review.  The first part was a recap of the Kings’ championship season.  Part two covered the other teams who were title contenders through most of the season.  Finally, we have the other six teams who were never really in the race.  This isn’t to say that 2013 was a terrible year for all of them, just that there was a fairly noticeable gap between the top four and these six most of the year.  While a few of these teams were surely disappointed in how their season went, none of them were truly awful.  The Jackalope finished in last place, but their 35.5 points was the second highest total for a last place team in league history.  So, while none of these teams were particularly close to competing for the title this season, it is also fair to say that none of them need major reconstruction to be right in the thick of the race next year.

    Of these six squads, the team that is probably most satisfied with their 2013 season is the Cougars.  They finished in fifth place, making this the first time they have finished in the top half of the league since 2004.  A much improved offense complemented an already strong pitching staff.  The main reason for the offensive surge was Chris Davis.  The second round steal led the league in home runs (53) and RBI (138).  He figures to get strong consideration in the upcoming MVP vote.  Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright helped the Cougars finish second in ERA.

    Another team that made great strides this year would be the Darkhorses.  As many assumed they would, they managed to bounce back from the 2012 season from hell when everything that could possibly have gone wrong did.  Luck still wasn’t completely on their side as they had to fight through a bunch of key injuries, especially early.  But finishing sixth a year after coming in last is obviously a big step in the right direction.  They more than doubled their ’12 point total as well.  Bryce Harper had a nice rookie year for the Darkhorses, but they expect even bigger things from him next year.  Keeping Hanley Ramirez healthy for an entire season will be key as well.  On the pitching side of things, it is still a bit of a work in progress, but Matt Moore and Mike Minor had solid years.

    Following two teams who made big improvements this year was a team that went in the opposite direction.  The Moonshiners finished in fourth place a year ago, but were just a 1.5 points away from winning their first title.  Obviously, they had hoped to compete for the title again this year, but it wasn’t to be.  They finished in a disappointing seventh place.  Other than the surprising A.J. Burnett, all of the Moonshiners pitchers failed to meet expectations.  Well, Jered Weaver was pretty good too, but didn’t put up the kind of numbers they needed from a staff ace.  On offense, the roster actually looks pretty good, but they lacked any one player having an especially huge season.  This is really a hard team to diagnose.  They don’t look like a seventh place team.  But they are lacking that star player to take them to the next level.

    The Demigods took a small step backwards this season, dropping one spot to eighth place.  Their weakness is obvious:  pitching.  They finished with just eight pitching points, the lowest total in the league.  This was a surprising result considering their first round pick, Yu Darvish, turned out to be one of the best pitchers in the league.  But the rest of the rotation was a mess and they finished the season without a closer on the roster.  The amazing thing about the Demigods is that they finished in eighth despite having the second most batting points in the league.  They got solid years out of almost all of their offensive players, led by newcomer Carlos Gomez and veterans Evan Longoria and David Ortiz.  If they can just figure out their pitching problems, they are not far from being a contender.

    I’m not sure anyone is ever pleased about finishing in ninth place, but the Gators were really a much improved team over their ’12 squad which also finished ninth.  Through the draft and trades, they were able to significantly improve their weak offense and have plenty of good, young talent moving forward.  Second overall draft pick Yoenis Cespedes suffered through a bit of a MLB sophomore slump, but still put up strong fantasy numbers.  But the real steals for the Gators were a pair of shortstops:  Jean Segura (8th round) and Andrelton Simmons (4th round).  Their in-season trade to acquire Starling Marte is looking pretty solid too.  The Gators pitching staff, previously their strength, was a bit of a disappointment though.  Staff ace C.C. Sabathia had one of the worst seasons of his career.  If they can get him to bounce back next year, this will be a very dangerous team.

    Finally, we have the Jackalope.  To be blunt, this season was a train wreck for them.  Just two years removed from a league championship and a year after being in the title race until the last day of the season, the Jackalope hit rock bottom this year, finishing dead last.  The offense was atrocious and the pitching staff, the league’s best the previous three years, was largely disappointing as well.  It’s not too hard to figure out why their offense struggled so much.  They were without their two best players for a good portion of the season.  Ryan Braun fought through injuries before finally serving his PED suspension.  And Albert Pujols was simply not himself at any point this season, eventually causing him to miss the last couple months of the year.  The Jackalope finished a distant last place in batting points, despite getting a breakout season from Paul Goldschmidt.  He was pretty much the lone bright spot though.  Just like the Darkhorses a year ago, it is hard to imagine this team staying down at the bottom very long though.  They have way too much talent for that.  Plus, they are going to have the first pick in an absolutely loaded draft next spring….

    … Which leads me to my final thought.  All six of these teams are going to be able to add potential superstars with their first round picks next year.  I’m not going to name names, but look no further than the top MLB Rookie of the Year contenders to get an idea of what kind of talent is coming.  If those picks pan out, I won’t be writing about these teams in the “non-contenders” recap next year.

    Congrats to the Red Sox on their World Series title.  With that, the off-season is officially upon us.  The 2013 DTBL Awards ballot will be posted in the next couple of days with announcements of the winners coming over the next few weeks.

  • 2013 Season Preview: Part II

    Cougars pitcher Gio Gonzalez

    Last year concluded with a frantic five team race for the title on the final day of the season.  But just two months prior to that, there were as many as seven teams right in the hunt for the championship.  I’m not saying that will happen again this year, but there is precedent for all of the following teams to be championship contenders, even if they don’t significantly exceed their projections.  These are the teams that are projected to finish seventh up to fifth place.  Actually, the computed standings had two teams tied for sixth place, so I will just review them alphabetically.

    Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 10th (6th)
    • Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th-T)
    • Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases – 7th (6th)
    • Earned Run Average – 6th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 10th (7th)
    • Wins – 5th (6th)
    • Saves – 2nd (5th-T)
    • Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (6th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 5th (7th-T)
    • Total Points – 6th-T (6th)

    Summary:

    The Choppers are another team that could be expected to exceed their pitching projections.  For the second straight year, they might choose to use a sixth starting pitcher in a RP slot (Alexi Ogando).  Ogando isn’t likely to repeat Chris Sale’s ’12 season, but he could give the Choppers a nice win and strike out boost.  But they also have four closers on the roster, so they won’t be punting saves by any means.  Sale is their only elite starting pitcher, but they have a lot of intriguing guys who are capable of racking up strike outs, in particular.  On offense, it appears home runs will be their strength again this year.  Newcomer Anthony Rizzo will attempt to pick up the slack early on while Curtis Granderson is on the shelf.  Jose Bautista needs to stay healthy this year.  B.J. Upton appears to be primed for a huge season, in which case he could give the Choppers a boost in power and speed categories.  It has been a while since the Choppers were a serious title contender, but they will have a chance this year if their starting pitching pans out.

    Mike’s Moonshiners

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 6th (1st)
    • Home Runs – 6th (7th)
    • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
    • Runs Scored – 4th (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average – 5th (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio – 6th (6th)
    • Wins –  7th (2nd)
    • Saves – 7th (4th)
    • Strike Outs – 8th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points – 6th (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points – 8th-T (3rd)
    • Total Points – 6th-T (4th)

    Summary:

    And here we have our first appearance from one of the “Big 5” who chased the title on the final day of the season.  This might be the most surprising projection of all.  Let’s not forget that the Moonshiners came within 1 1/2 points of winning the title last year and were the league’s most balanced team.  They were the only team to accumulate over 30 batting and pitching points.  So why the gloomy forecast for this season?  Well, they only had one draft pick in the first three rounds this year, so they didn’t have an opportunity to significantly pad their projections with one or two acquisitions.  But that doesn’t mean this team won’t contend.  The biggest key is for R.A. Dickey to not take an enormous step backwards like he is projected to do.  Dickey, Jered Weaver and Yovani Gallardo lead the rotation that will be a bit thin until Brandon Beachy returns from Tommy John surgery.  The bullpen only has two definite closers, but first round pick Fernando Rodney is good enough to make sure they aren’t buried in saves.  They have solid players across the board on offense, so I just don’t see them finishing in the bottom half of the league in batting points.  Prince Fielder, David Wright and Desmond Jennings are three players who I expect to easily exceed their projected numbers.  I strongly believe the Moonshiners will contend for their first DTBL title again this year.

    Kelly’s Cougars

    Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

    • Batting Average – 7th (10th)
    • Home Runs – 4th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In – 5th (8th-T)
    • Runs Scored – 9th (9th)
    • Stolen Bases – 10th (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average – 3rd (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio – 5th (4th)
    • Wins –  1st (1st)
    • Saves – 6th (9th)
    • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
    • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (5th)
    • Total Points – 5th (8th)

    Summary:

    Now here is a real sleeper candidate.  The Cougars have not finished in the top half of the league since 2004.  But this definitely looks like a team that is capable of making a big leap forward.  The most interesting thing in these projections is the Cougars shift from a speed to a power team.  In light of some spring training injuries, I think fourth in home runs is a little unrealistic, but they certainly do have more power on the roster.  They will need to overcome early injuries to Mark Teixeira and Brett Lawrie though.  Assuming he isn’t out too long, expect a big bounce-back season from Lawrie to help justify his status as the #1 pick in last year’s draft.  The pitching staff is very good.  I don’t think it is possible for Kris Medlen to repeat his performance as a starter last year, but he won’t need to.  Gio Gonzalez, Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright join Medlen as four legitimate aces.  5th place may seem like an awfully optimistic prediction for this team, but I think it is quite possible they will finally make their return to the top half of the standings.

    I didn’t get around to doing any previews yesterday, so I’m a day behind schedule.  My new goal is two more teams tomorrow (Tuesday) and then the top two championship contenders (according to the projections) on Wednesday.  I hope you are enjoying the first full day of baseball!

  • No Clowning Around

    Darkhorses outfielder Bryce Harper

    Who should the Darkhorses have picked with the first selection in the 2013 DTBL Draft?  That’s a clown question, bro.  With one of the clearest cut decisions in recent memory, the Darkhorses selected 20 year old outfielder Bryce Harper.  The Nationals young phenom burst onto the scene last summer at the ripe age of 19 and proceeded to win the National League Rookie of the Year award.  He bounced back from a mid-summer slump to tear the league apart on his way to a .270 average with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases.  The home run total was the second most by a teenager in MLB history.

    A year after most of the league made the mistake of allowing Mike Trout to slip to the second round, the Darkhorses ensured that the same wouldn’t happen this time around.  Of course, Harper has much higher expectations heading into this season than Trout did a year ago since he has a roster spot locked up and is even expected to hit third in the lineup for one of the top World Series contenders.  Although both are legitimate five tool players, Harper does have a slightly different skill set than Trout.  Harper is projected to be the bigger power threat while Trout has unmatched speed on the bases and in the outfield.  The sky is the limit for Harper, and his bust potential seems extremely low.

    Harper is only the second player to become a first overall selection in both the MLB and DTBL drafts.  Alex Rodriguez is the other, which makes it interesting that Harper is entering the league at the exact same time as ARod’s 16 year career with the Kings is coming to an end.  I’m sure the Darkhorses would be happy to get at least a decade and a half of service out of Harper.  I’m 99% positive that Harper was the youngest player to ever be drafted by a DTBL team in the first round (maybe any round), an honor he held for less than 24 hours (more on that later).  The Darkhorses are looking to bounce back from two straight disappointing, injury-riddled seasons.  Harper has the potential to quickly accelerate the rebuilding process, much like Trout did for the Mavericks a year ago.

    Last year, the Gators had the tall order of trying to rebuild without the benefit of a first or second round pick.  This year, they held onto those picks and wisely used them to pick up a few of the best young players in the draft.  With the second overall pick, they selected Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes who made an immediate impact in his first big league season, hitting several prodigious home runs early in the season.  He somewhat quietly proceeded to have an outstanding season that surely would have earned him a Rookie of the Year nod if it weren’t for some guy named Trout.  Cespedes slugged 23 home runs with 82 RBI and 16 steals.  Like Harper, he has big time power potential with the ability to add a bunch of stolen bases too.

    If Kris Medlen can come anywhere close to matching his 2012 numbers, the Cougars might suddenly have one of the league’s top pitching staffs.  Medlen, a Tommy John surgery survivor, started last season in the bullpen, but then became nearly unhittable after moving into the rotation.  He won 10 games with a miniscule 1.57 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP.  The Cougars selected him with the third pick in the draft.  The Demigods then followed with another starting pitcher, Yu Darvish.  Along with Cespedes, Darvish was the other key foreign import to the big leagues last season.  He displayed overpowering stuff, striking out 221 hitters in just 190 innings.  He should help the Demigods recover from a season that was largely derailed by a shaky pitching staff.  The Choppers took the Cubs young first baseman, Anthony Rizzo, with the fifth pick.  Rizzo had been a highly touted prospect for a number of years, before finally breaking through with a solid season for his third MLB organization.  Rizzo figures to be a centerpiece in the Cubs lineup for some time to come.

    For the most part, the top five picks were fairly clear cut.  I know those five players were the top five on my draft board, and I suspect I’m not alone.  But I felt there was a significant drop-off in available talent after those five.  Which was kind of fitting because the next five teams all came within an eyelash of winning the championship last year anyway.

    For the second straight year, the Jackalope were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie.  With the sixth pick, they took second baseman Danny Espinosa, who spent the last two seasons with the Kings.  Espinosa spent almost the entire ’12 season on the Kings bench, but only because he was at a log jammed position.  He actually had a very solid year and provides significant power and speed for a middle infielder.  He seems to be getting better each year too.  Next, the Moonshiners selected closer Fernando Rodney, the obvious #1 relief pitcher on the board.  Rodney re-emerged as an elite closer for the Rays, saving 48 games with a ridiculous 0.60 ERA.  Seventh is the earliest a relief pitcher has been selected since 2010.  But the Moonshiners were in desperate need of a second closer and only had two picks in the first rounds with which to acquire one.

    For the fourth straight years, the Mavericks had multiple first round picks.  This time, they didn’t acquire the second one until just before they were on the clock with the eighth pick.  They dealt one member of their stable of first basemen, Ike Davis, to the Kings for the ninth overall pick.  So with two consecutive picks, the Mavericks did what has become their trademark:  they selected two young prospects, second baseman Jurickson Profar and third baseman Manny Machado.  Both have big upside, but Machado figures to make a more immediate impact since Profar is temporarily without a position in Texas, behind Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler.  Of course, this is a similar situation that Mike Trout was in a year ago.  Profar just turned 20 a few weeks ago, which is notable for a couple reasons.  First, I believe it makes him the youngest player in DTBL history (he’s a few months younger than Harper).  Next, he is the first DTBL player to have been born after the inaugural DTBL Draft in January of 1993.  So he’s actually younger than this league!  (Damn, we’re getting old)

    For the second straight year, the Kings used the first round to try to fill their gaping hole at first base.  But this time, they did so by trading their pick for Ike Davis.  Davis got off to a horrific start in 2012, due in part to his slow recovery from valley fever, which he contracted during spring training.  But he rebounded in the second half of the season and turned into one of the leading home run hitters after the break.  He finished the season with 32 bombs.  Finally, the Naturals used the last pick of the first round to re-acquire catcher Victor Martinez.  Martinez missed all of last season recovering from a torn ACL suffered over the previous winter.  The Naturals were clearly reluctant to let him go after holding him on the roster for the entire season.  However, when the opportunity came to pick him up again, they jumped all over it.  Although his catching days may be over, he will likely produce stellar numbers at a position that is extremely difficult to fill.

    For the most part, there were few surprises in the first round.  And I honestly can’t criticize any of the picks.  The top five teams went with the best players available, while the second half of the round featured last year’s contenders fill holes and/or proceed with their successful draft strategies.

    The pace of the draft has been great so far too.  We’re already into the fifth round at the four day mark, so I’d say we are well ahead of schedule.  Keep up the good work!

  • Close Only Counts In…

    Mavericks outfielder Jason Heyward

    When a season ends like this year’s DTBL campaign did, there is always going to be a lot of second guessing.  One move here or there.  One umpiring or official scorer decision gone bad.  One unlucky bounce of the ball could have been the difference between a league championship and also-ran status for four different teams.  The Naturals won the DTBL Championship, but four other teams came oh so close.  Here’s a look back at 2012 for the Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners and Jackalope.

    While a second place finish is always a little disappointing, it was a step in the right direction for the Kings.  This was their highest finish since 2007 and only the second time they were a legitimate title contender since their reign of championships ended in 2003.  Like the champion Naturals, the Kings went through a bit of a transformation this season, albeit in the opposite direction.  Previously a pitching dominated team, this year they led the league in batting points and failed to win the league primarily due to a disappointing pitching staff.  Their starting pitching was a mess most of the season with Justin Verlander being the only consistent performer.  A second half surge, led by Max Scherzer, nearly won the league for them though.  The offense was solid all season, but faded a bit due to a poor second half by Carlos Beltran and a late season injury to Carlos Gonzalez.  Robinson Cano was the steady hand throughout.  The Kings are going to have some very difficult roster decisions to make because they may have more keeper-worthy players than any other team.  In this year’s draft, we saw a bunch of ex-Demigods picked in the early rounds.  That could be the Kings next year.

    For my money, the most interesting team in the league in 2012 was the Mavericks.  Their youth movement finally paid off in a big way.  Although they expected to be at least one more year away from being a serious contender, one move in particular shifted that time table way up.  What might some day go down as the biggest coup in league history, the Mavericks were able to steal Mike Trout in the second round of this year’s draft.  As I’ve mentioned before, I thought it was a huge reach at that point of the draft, but boy was I wrong.  Trout finished third in the league in hitting at .330, easily led the league in runs scored (128) and stolen bases (48) and hit 30 home runs.  He did all of this despite not making his DTBL debut until May.  He almost won the league for the Mavericks, though he did have some help.  Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Jones and Jason Heyward were some of the huge breakout stars for this club.  The pitching staff took a hit when Stephen Strasburg was shut down in September and they had no free agent signings remaining to replace him.  But Clayton Kershaw had another great season.  The Strasburg/Kerhsaw/Trout combination makes this one scary team for the foreseeable future.  Following two disappointing seasons, 2012 was just the beginning of the Mavericks resurgence.

    The Moonshiners may have been the team that suffered the most disappointment in the final week of the season.  Early in the week, they appeared to be well positioned to win their first DTBL title.  But they wound up settling for fourth place, albeit just a point and a half out of first.  That is actually down a spot from their third place finish in 2011, though 2012 was clearly a better season for them.  They were the league’s most balanced team; the only team to finish with 30+ batting and pitching points.  They were third in the league in both sub-sets.  While they lacked huge seasons from anyone, especially on the offensive side of things, they had incredible depth.  Prince Fielder and David Wright led the offense.  Jared Weaver was probably their top pitcher over the course of the full season, but the key free agent signing of R.A. Dickey was also one of the biggest moves of the year.  Although the fourth place finish was disappointing, it may have been just as well that the Moonshiners finished a half point behind the Kings and Mavericks because they will now have the opportunity to pick before those two clubs in the draft.  One of the steadiest teams in the league, it seems like it will only be a matter of time before the Moonshiners break through with their first title.

    Finally, we have the defending champions.  Dropping from first to fifth is obviously a huge disappointment for the Jackalope, but it wasn’t necessarily all that surprising.  Rarely are teams able to catch all the breaks two years in a row.  While the ’11 Jackalope cruised to the title thanks to an unbeatable pitching staff and virtually no significant injuries, the ’12 squad wasn’t so lucky.  They still managed to lead the league in pitching points, but the rotation led by Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Ian Kennedy just wasn’t as dominating as a year ago.  Lee was especially unlucky, not winning his first game until June despite pretty decent peripheral numbers.  But the real problem was the offense.  Ryan Howard missed the first half of the season and wasn’t particularly effective after he returned.  Several of their youngsters had disappointing seasons.  Albert Pujols wasn’t even close to his usual elite self.  The two bright spots were Ryan Braun and Giancarlo Stanton.  The rest of the offense is going to need some work in the offseason.  But expect the pitching to bounce back next year, which should keep them in the hunt once again.

    The rest of the league has some work to do to catch these top five teams.  But history has shown that breakthrough seasons are likely again next year.  I will recap the disappointing 2012 season for the bottom five teams later this week.

  • The Chaos Ends, Naturally

    Naturals first baseman Miguel Cabrera

    In the two decades this league has existed, we’ve had our fair share of exciting finishes to DTBL seasons, but nothing quite like this year.  The final week of the 2012 season featured five teams within at least two points of first place at some point in the week.  In fact, if you count incremental progress within each date, most of the five found themselves in first place at some point.  For a brief moment on Wednesday night, it looked like we may have been headed to an absurd three way tie for the league championship.  However, when the dust settled, only one team came out on top.  Congratulations to Nick’s Naturals, the 2012 Dream Team Baseball League Champions!

    As usual, I intend to write about the league champion with a full recap of how they earned the title.  But that is going to have to wait until next week.  Tonight, I want to focus on the absurdity of the title race, describe just how things went down on the final night, and describe just how close we were to the most unlikely result in any fantasy league I have ever been a part of.

    As the summer progressed, it seemed quite likely that we were headed towards an exciting finish.  At no point in the season had any team run away from the pack; at least not for more than a few days at a time.  The lead constantly changed hands.  Seven teams looked like legitimate title contenders.  The Cougars and Choppers faded a bit in July and August, setting up a five team race to the finish.  With exactly one week to go, here is how the top five looked:

    1. Moonshiners, 73.5 points
    2. Kings, 72.5 (-1)
    3. Naturals, 67 (-6.5)
    4. Jackalope, 66.5 (-7)
    5. Mavericks, 65 (-8.5)

    It was fairly noteworthy that the top two teams had separated themselves from the others by more than five points, because that was rarely the case in September.  But it was clear when analyzing the standings that more change was likely to come.  There was also a great deal of uncertainty heading into the final transaction deadline.  Would the teams who had already clinched MLB playoff spots rest their starters?  Skip spots in the rotation?  Or even completely shut down some guys?  This was particularly troubling for teams worried about getting as many starts from their starting pitchers as possible.  The Moonshiners appeared to be in very good shape, not only because they held the top spot, but they had most of their starting pitchers slated to start twice in the final week.  Meanwhile, the Kings were dealing with several nagging injuries to their outfielders and uncertainty about Max Scherzer’s availability in the final week.  The other three challengers were just trying to hang on.

    Three days later, the Moonshiners lead grew to four points.  The four challengers were all within a point of each other, but needed to make up ground quickly.  By the next morning (Monday), the lead was down to 1 1/2 points and the sprint to the finish was on.  On the second to last day of the season, the Moonshiners lost the lead completely as the Kings and Naturals moved into a tie for first entering the final day.  The Moonshiners slipped to 1 1/2 points back.  The Jackalope’s dream of a repeat seemed unlikely, 3 1/2 points behind.  And finally, the Mavericks looked to be in big trouble, 5 1/2 points off the pace.  But the Mavericks had one thing going for them that the other challengers did not:  multiple starting pitchers scheduled to take the mound, including their ace, Clayton Kershaw.  Actually, that’s not quite true.  The Moonshiners were also supposed to get three starts on the final day of the season.  However, the Brewers elected to scratch Yovani Gallardo and the Angels pulled Jered Weaver after just one inning.  This essentially ended the Moonshiners hopes of gaining a point in strike outs and decreased their movement possibilities in ERA and WHIP.

    I won’t rehash all of the events of the final day, as most of them can be found in my live blog from yesterday.  But one part of the story must be repeated.  During the 10 o’clock hour, I was frantically updating my spreadsheet with all of the stats from the completed 7 p.m. games as well as most of the stats from the last batch of games.  At one point, I calculated a three way tie for first place.  Had the season ended at that instant, the Kings, Mavericks and Naturals would have shared the title.  But some later shifts in RBI and saves moved the Naturals back into the final position they claimed.

    The three way tie scenario was actually a lot closer to happening than I realized last night.  The WHIP category was the craziest to follow on the last day.  Only three of the league’s ten teams ended the day where they started in that category.  The margins between most of the teams were miniscule, but especially between the Gators and Naturals.  When it was all said and done, the Naturals edged out the Gators for second place in WHIP by two ten-thousandths of a point.  To put that in perspective, had any Naturals pitcher finished the season with one more base runner allowed via hit or walk, the Gators would have finished ahead of them and we would be talking about three co-champions.  I bet I wouldn’t have to try very hard to find a questionable scoring decision somewhere over the course of the season where a Naturals pitcher benefited from an error rather than a hit.  But that’s not to say the Naturals got lucky.  In fact, they were well positioned to gain points in a whole host of other categories.  They were one offensive hit away from passing the Kings in batting average, for example.  I only illustrate this to show you just how ridiculously close this race was.

    Of the ten categories, all but two of them saw points change hands during the final day.  This is incredibly unusual at the six month mark of the season, especially in high value counting categories like RBI and runs.  Based on what we saw yesterday, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that we would have had four or five different leaders if the season had extended a few more days, just as we saw the lead change hands several times over the final weeks.  But the season has to end sometime, and the Naturals were fortunate enough to come out on top.

    I’m sure all four of the teams who came up just short have been thinking about decisions they made that may have cost them a title.  With the way things ended up, it wouldn’t be very hard to point to a single transaction each team made (or could have made, but didn’t), which would have shifted the standings in their favor.  But such is life when a season ends as this one did.  There is always next year for the rest of us!

    What is it with the finishes in Naturals championship seasons?  They earned their third DTBL title this year, and the two most recent ones have come in the two craziest finishes in league history.  Of course, the other season I speak of was 2010 when they shared the title with the Darkhorses.  It certainly makes their 3 1/2 point victory in 2005 look like a cakewalk.

    Look for a full review of the Naturals championship season next week, as well as a glimpse at the other contenders who fell just short.

  • Live Blog: Season Finale

    Mavericks pitcher Clayton Kershaw

    After sending the email to the group list last night, I realized that it can be difficult to fully describe what is going on with just 140 characters at a time, so I’ve decided to start a running blog post to summarize the championship race this evening.  I will continue to tweet updates as well, but feel free to keep refreshing this post to see my updates throughout the night.

    With one day remaining on the schedule, we have five teams within three points of first place.  It doesn’t get any better than this.  There are points to be gained or lost in almost every category.  I will let you know every change as close to real-time as possible, via Twitter, and with occasional updates here.

    Time for me to get caught up on the afternoon games.  There were some very interesting developments, but it remains to be seen if there were any changes to the standings.  I’ll have an update shortly.  Stay tuned!

    7:50 pm

    Well, I’ve finished updating things through the completed afternoon games.  Thanks to a rough outing by Jonathan Papelbon, the Kings dropped a point in ERA, falling behind the Choppers.  Meanwhile, the Jackalope also fell one further down as the Choppers passed them in WHIP.  Plenty of categories tightened as well.  The Kings picked up two home runs (Zimmerman and Morse) and are now just one behind the Mavericks for the league lead.  However, the standings are now as follows:  Naturals (71 points), Moonshiners (70), Kings and Mavericks tied (69), Jackalope (67).  Not looking good for the defending champs.  Now I’ll work on updating the games in progress.

    8:40 pm

    Okay, trying to keep this “live” is virtually impossible, but one thing is starting to become clear.  It appears the Naturals will win the 2012 DTBL Championship.  They now lead the league with 72 1/2 points.  The Mavericks have moved up to 2nd place, but are 3 points back.  Moonshiners have dropped to 3rd (69).  Kings and Jackalope are 4th and 5th respectively, and are leaking points all over the place.  Still way too many close categories to call this thing, but not looking good for anyone other than the Naturals.

    9:00 pm

    Did they really have to schedule this Presidential Debate on the last night of the MLB season?  Don’t they know there are fantasy league titles on the line tonight?  May not be many updates from me for a while…  Still looking good for the Naturals, though Robinson Cano’s big night has pushed the Kings into the league lead in HR and has them back into 2nd place overall.  2 1/2 point lead for the Naturals though.

    10:51 pm

    Way too many changes since my last update to list, but we have a major development.  I now have the Kings, Mavericks and Naturals in a three way tie for first at 69.5 points, with the Moonshiners 1/2 point back and the Jackalope 2 points behind the leader.  The main reasons for the change:  great start by Clayton Kershaw gave the Mavericks a boost, especially since another Mavericks pitcher (Ryan Vogelsong) also had a good outing in that same game.  Robinson Cano went 4 for 4 with a pair of home runs, boosting the Kings in HR and batting average.   Finally, I have the Naturals and Jackalope tied in RBIs now, which also cost the Naturals 1/2 point.  Needless to say, it is way too close to call right now.

    11:11 pm

    Jason Motte’s save puts the Naturals back into the lead.  Ironically, it was another Naturals pitcher that helped set up the save opportunity.  Jonathan Broxton gave up a run and took the loss.  He didn’t cost the Naturals in the WHIP category, yet.  They are thousandths of a point ahead of the Gators at the moment, according to my calculations.  Kings, Mavericks and Moonshiners are all within a point, so a change in any category could tip the title in a different direction.

    11:47 pm

    The 2012 season is now over.  I have compiled all of today’s results.  The gap between teams in almost every category is so small that I do not trust my final results and sort of wish I hadn’t chosen to do this “live” updating because the chances I have it wrong are quite high.  Anyway, according to my numbers the 2012 DTBL Champions are Nick’s Naturals!

    The Naturals have 70 1/2 points.  The Kings and Mavericks tied for second place, just one point behind.  The Moonshiners fell to fourth place with 69 points and the Jackalope came in 5th with 67.

    I urge you to check in again tomorrow morning around 8:15 a.m. EDT when I will post the official results.  This could be a “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment, but if not, congratulations Nick!

  • Mad Dash to the Finish

    Moonshiners first baseman Prince Fielder

    For most of the month of September, as many as five teams have been within a couple points of first place, setting up the potential for one of the craziest finishes in league history.  I wish I had taken the time to write this article a few days ago when all five of the contenders were within two points of each other.  In the last couple days, the gap has widened a bit.  But the fluctuation in those couple days just goes to show you how quickly things could change again.  With less than a week to go in the 2012 DTBL season, the league title isn’t even close to being decided.

    Here is a team-by-team overview of the five contenders, looking at the state of each team and what needs to happen for them to finish on top.

    Jackalope

    Although at no point this season have the defending champions held a commanding lead, I really felt they were the team to beat in the late summer.  They were showing signs of the same form that led them to the title last year.  But their offense has been a huge disappointment most of the season, and especially lately.  Ryan Braun has been trying to carry the load, but he has had virtually no help.  The injury to Giancarlo Stanton couldn’t have come at a worse time, although he is back in the lineup tonight.  The Jackalope’s nine point deficit may be too much to make up in such a short period of time, especially since the offense has shown no signs of life.  It would seem likely that we will have a new champion in 2012, but don’t count the Jackalope out just yet.

    Mavericks

    The surprise team of the year appears to be running out of gas.  It is a pretty notable accomplishment for them to have remained in the race this long.  Due to exhausting all of their free agent signings well over a month ago, they have been unable to field replacements for players who have been injured/shelved in recent weeks.  Prior to Clayton Kershaw’s return earlier this week, the Mavericks were stuck with just three healthy/active starting pitchers.  The Stephen Strasburg shutdown was expected, but the Johan Santana and Kershaw injuries were not.  Perhaps their strategy of burning through their free agent signings could be questioned, but I think the Mavericks figured their rebuilding plan was at least a year ahead of schedule, so they were playing with house money.  This will be a tough team to beat in 2013.

    Naturals

    Many of the things stated in the Jackalope section also apply here.  The Naturals have remained in the title chase despite a slightly disappointing offense.  Miguel Cabrera and Andrew McCutchen have been doing their part, but the Naturals still find themselves in the middle of the pack in batting points.  The good news is they are situated in striking distance of their nearest competitor in a whole bunch of categories.  They have a decent shot at picking up as many as three points in home runs alone.  In fact, I believe they have the best chance of anyone to catch the Moonshiners.  Their pitching staff is the best in the league right now.  If the Moonshiners slip up at all, expect the Naturals to be right there on the final day of the season.

    Kings

    The second half turnaround of the Kings pitching staff has been extremely impressive and season saving.  Burried in 9th place in ERA most of the season, their deficit appeared to be too much to make up.  But the Tigers’ duo of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer has propelled them up to a more respectable spot.  However, the Kings title hopes may have been dashed when news came out that Scherzer would miss his start this weekend and may not pitch again in the regular season.  Kings management learned of this just hours after the final transactions of the year had been processed.  So if Anibal Sanchez winds up throwing another gem this weekend, the failure to keep him in the lineup could be the dagger to the Kings.  The other problem is that they have pretty much reached their point ceiling.  Most likely, the only way they will make up the current 3 1/2 point deficit is if the Moonshiners fall back a bit.

    Moonshiners

    Usually, a team would feel pretty good about a 3 1/2 point lead with less than a week to go.  But considering the Moonshiners weren’t even in first place earlier this week, obviously a lot can happen in just a couple days.  Unlike the other four title contenders, the Moonshiners don’t have an obvious weakness.  They are the only team in the league with 30+ batting and pitching points.  In fact, they are over 35 in both.  It’s pretty simple for the Moonshiners.  All they need to do is hold serve.  No other team is going to reach the mid-70’s point mark.  So as long as they don’t start dropping points, they will win their first DTBL title.  However, that’s not exactly a sure thing.  They are in danger of losing points in home runs, WHIP, wins, strike outs and possibly even batting average.  The fat lady hasn’t even started warming up her vocal chords.

  • Moonshiners Make a Splash

    Moonshiners catcher Miguel Montero

    During the 2011 regular season, there was not a single trade completed in the DTBL.  This year, things were back to normal with a handful of deals going down.  This was not a surprising development since, unlike last year, more than half of the teams were still in title contention by the time the trade deadline arrived earlier this week.  In total, five trades were completed.  Three of them involved the Moonshiners, who are trying to make this the second consecutive season with a first time DTBL champion.  Since I have not written about any of the these trades, I will recap them all right now, even the ones that were completed quite a while ago.

    Mavericks/Darkhorses (June 6)

    Mavericks get:  RP Matt Capps, P Matt Harrison

    Darkhorses get:  P Ricky Romero, RP Daniel Bard

    I don’t think it is too early to say this trade his been quite a disaster on both sides.  The Mavericks made this deal to try to get themselves another closer, but Matt Capps got hurt very soon after this trade and is yet to record a save for his new team.  Meanwhile, the key piece going the opposite direction, Ricky Romero, has continued his dreadful season.  The Darkhorses other acquisition, Daniel Bard, is buried in the minors where he can’t throw strikes.  It is unclear if he will ever be a viable MLB pitcher again.  As it turns out, the only player in this trade who has had any sort of value is Matt Harrison.  But he was only included because the Darkhorses needed to clear out a roster spot.  The Mavericks immediately released him.  The Moonshiners swooped in and signed him later and he has had a very productive season for them.

    Mavericks/Gators (July 11)

    Mavericks get:  2B Dan Uggla

    Gators get:  C Salvador Perez

    As Greg can confirm, I was not happy when I saw the details of this trade.  I thought it was a steal for the Mavericks, primarily because they were able to fill a glaring hole (Dee Gordon had just gone on the DL, leaving them short a middle infielder) without giving up a player that had much value to them.  But with hindsight being 20/20, this was actually a pretty solid move for the Gators.  Uggla is a batting average killer and isn’t even putting up particularly impressive power numbers anymore.  In fact, since this trade was made, Perez has one more home run than Uggla.  Perez is obviously a lot younger too, making him a better fit for the Gators future plans.  That’s not to say this has become a bad trade for the Mavericks though.  They had little use for Perez with Wieters and Santana anchoring their catching staff.  Perhaps Uggla will go on one of his patented hot streaks before this season ends.

    Moonshiners/Demigods (July 26)

    Moonshiners get:  RP Joe Nathan, 12th Round Pick

    Demigods get:  2nd Round Pick

    There was a lot of activity around the trade deadline involving closers, but this was the only deal that actually got done (not counting the Capps trade in June).  Out of contention for this season, the Demigods had little use for a 37 year old closer.  So they were able to get a second round pick for him.  If you are wondering what type of player this could turn out to be for the Demigods, here are two names of players picked in this year’s second round:  Mike Trout and Gio Gonzalez.  Maybe they won’t get that lucky, but there is too much opportunity there for them to have passed on a deal like this.  Meanwhile, this was the first sign that the Moonshiners are truly “all in” for 2012.  They are up to 5th in saves with a great opportunity to pick up another point before the year is over.

    Moonshiners/Kings (August 15)

    Moonshiners get:  C Miguel Montero, P Edwin Jackson

    Kings get:  P Dan Haren, 3B David Freese

    This was probably the biggest trade made this season, in part because it was the only one involving two teams in the championship chase.  In fact, to see two teams so close to each other in the standings make a trade this big this late in the season is quite rare.  The Moonshiners needed to find a catcher after losing both of their regulars (J.P. Arencibia and Mike Napoli) to injuries.  Not only were they able to find one, but they got an upper echelon receiver in Montero.  The Kings could afford to deal  him because they had two other good, young catchers on their roster (Jonathan LuCroy and Wilin Rosario).  On the flip side, the Kings have been struggling to find effective starting pitching all season.  In many ways, Haren fits right in with the rest of the underachieving staff.  However, he probably has more upside than anyone in their rotation not named Verlander.  Although this was an attempt to get better now, the bigger upside for the Kings may be in the future.  Freese returns to his original DTBL team to fill a need at 3B, which has been a black hole since ARod got hurt.  Jackson could wind up being a huge pickup for the Moonshiners too, even though he was probably considered the least valuable player in the deal.

    Moonshiners/Darkhorses (August 15)

    Moonshiners get:  OF Alex Rios, 11th Round Pick

    Darkhorses get:  C Mike Napoli, 4th Round Pick

    The last trade, completed within the last couple hours before the deadline, was what the Moonshiners hope to be the final piece of their puzzle.  They acquired the red-hot Rios for an injured catcher and a draft pick swap.  Earlier this year, nobody would have guessed that a Napoli/Rios swap would lead to the team acquiring Napoli also receiving the advantage in a draft pick exchange.  But it has been a disappointing, and now injury hampered season for Napoli.  He could be a key addition for the Darkhorses though as he is capable of supplying big time power from a very weak position.  But for this season, Rios is obviously the player with more value.  He is having a very productive season, following a truly dreadful 2011.  The recent trend points to good seasons in even numbered years and poor seasons in odd years.  So we’ll have to see what he provides the Moonshiners next year.  But in the mean time, he could be a huge addition for the final month and a half of 2012.

    Finally, I want to end with a follow up to my previous blog post, which focused on the Stephen Strasburg situation.  I knew this was going to be a big story, but didn’t expect major features coming out from every corner of the sports world the last few weeks.  It has been discussed on nearly every sports program and web site.  What I find fascinating is that the people who seem to have the most to lose (short term) from a Strasburg shutdown (the Nationals, their fans, and the DC sports media) seem to be the only ones who actually support the shutdown.  Meanwhile, the so-called experts outside of DC seem to be unanimously opposed to the shutdown.  This is almost exactly the opposite of what I expected.  Hearing Rob Dibble and Tim McCarver give dimwitted declarations of opposition to the shutdown actually has me reconsidering my position.  Do I really want to be on their side of this argument?