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Mid-Season Mash-up

Monday, July 9th, 2018

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We’ve moved into the second half of the baseball season.  There is a lot going on right now, so I’m going to breeze through several topics in this post.  Thanks to everyone for voting for this year’s All-Stars.  The managers for this year’s All-Star Game, Marc and Nick, have been tasked with breaking a few ties and selecting the final players for their respective rosters.  Soon after they do that, I will announce the 2018 DTBL All-Star rosters.  This year will mark the 25th annual DTBL All-Star Game.  As you may recall, there was no All-Star Game in the first DTBL season.  But some representation of the Mid-Summer Classic has been played every year since.

Speaking of 25th Anniversaries, we are just about a month away from the DTBL 25th Anniversary party in Chicago.  In case you didn’t pay attention to any of the email traffic from previous months, many of us will be meeting up for the Indians @ White Sox game on Saturday, August 11.  I’ve already obtained tickets for everyone who previously said they would be able to make it.  But even if that doesn’t include you, you are more than welcome to join us!  I bought a couple extra tickets and can easily obtain more, if necessary.  We are going to have a small tailgate outside the stadium, but will be heading into the park relatively early to make sure we get the Jim Thome bobbleheads that they are giving away that evening.  Please contact me if you would like more information.  Looking forward to it!

Somewhere around that 25th Anniversary gathering, probably soon after, I am going to be announcing an all-time DTBL team.  It will be my version of the 25 greatest players in league history.  Since I prefer to make mostly objective selections, I’m working on a statistical formula to determine this roster.  It will be somewhat based on PAR, but not exclusively.  However, to that end, I’m hoping to get as many seasons as possible of PAR numbers completed in the next month.  Just this past week, I added numbers for 2006.  A few takeaways from these numbers.  First, Johan Santana was very much deserving of the Cy Young award he won unanimously that season.  The Mavericks’ lefty accumulated a 14.27 PAR, which was nearly five points higher than the next closest pitcher.  It marks as the highest pre-2010 single season Pitching PAR I’ve calculated so far.  Among hitters, there was far less separation at the top of the 2006 PAR leaderboard.  Albert Pujols was first at 9.16, but Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Howard were all within a point.  Howard edged out Pujols in the MVP vote that year, perhaps because of his gaudy 58 home runs, which had been the league’s single season record among non-PED suspected players until Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 homers last year.  Reyes’ 19 home runs in ’06 is the most for any DTBL player with at least 60 steals as well.

I am going to try go get PAR numbers completed back to 2003 in the next month.  The reason why 2003 will be my stopping point is because I don’t have complete transaction records readily accessible prior to that, which are necessary for me to calculate the number of weeks each player was on a major league roster.  This is the big pain point in completing these PAR calculations.

On to the weekly and monthly award winners for June 2018.

Batters of the Week:

Week 11 (6/4 – 6/10) – Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope
Week 12 (6/11 – 6/17) – Evan Gattis, Kings
Week 13 (6/18 – 6/24) – Nolan Arenado, Naturals
Week 14 (6/25 – 7/1) – Alex Bregman, Darkhorses

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 11 (6/4 – 6/10) – Corey Kluber, Demigods
Week 12 (6/11 – 6/17) – Luis Severino, Jackalope
Week 13 (6/18 – 6/24) – Trevor Bauer, Choppers
Week 14 (6/25 – 7/1) – Blake Snell, Cougars

Semi-spoiler alert:  you are going to see almost all of the names above when the DTBL All-Star rosters are announced this week.  These guys not only had great weeks at some point in June, but are putting up All-Star caliber numbers through the first half of the season.  We had a little more team diversity for these honors in June as only the Jackalope had multiple players earn weekly honors.

Batter of the Month:

Alex Bregman, Darkhorses
.306 AVG, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 24 R, 1 SB, 3.00 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Chris Sale, Choppers
1.76 ERA, 0.756 WHIP, 3 W, 0 SV, 60 K, 3.43 PAR

Half way through his second DTBL season, Bregman has already almost matched his rookie season numbers.  In fact, he has already set a career high in home runs with 17.  11 of those came in his scorching month of June.  He tied for the league lead in both home runs and RBI in June.  The Darkhorses third baseman appears primed to receive his first DTBL All-Star invitation.  Bregman narrowly won this award over Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt who had very similar numbers across the board.  Komodos outfielders Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario were in the conversation as well.

Sale will almost certainly receive his seventh straight All-Star nod this week.  If so, he will have been a DTBL All-Star in every season since becoming a full time starting pitcher for the White Sox in 2012.  He was at the peak of his powers in June, striking out 60 batters in just 41 innings.  He is one of four pitchers who have already accumulated over 8 PAR this season, barely beyond the half-way point in the season.  Sale was a comfortable winner of this award, but amazingly, the top three contenders were all Choppers, the other two being Trevor Bauer and Jon Lester.  Jackalope Luis Severino wasn’t too far back either.

Posted in Awards, Choppers, Darkhorses | No Comments »

2018 Season Preview: Part II

Thursday, March 29th, 2018

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Happy Opening Day!  For the first time in recent history, all 30 teams were slated to start their seasons on the same day.  Unfortunately, weather has already cost us a pair of games today.  But we still have 13 games to look forward to this afternoon and evening.  Before the season officially launches, let’s bang out a couple more of these 2018 DTBL team previews.  As you will see when I post the full standings projections, only 11 points separate the six teams expected to finish between fourth and ninth places, so there isn’t too much of a difference between the pair of teams I’m previewing today and most of those I covered yesterday.  Also, it wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see these teams in a pennant race this summer either.  The teams projected to finish in fifth and sixth place are somewhat opposites of each other.  One figures to have an elite hitting squad with questionable pitching while the other has one of the league’s best pitching staffs supported by hitters with below average projections.  Here is a preview of two teams expected to finish in the middle of the standings.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (1st)
  • Home Runs – 9th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (4th)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
  • Wins – 10th (10th)
  • Saves – 4th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (8th)
  • Total Points – 6th (5th-T)

Summary:

The Darkhorses had a bit of an odd profile last year, particularly on the pitching side.  They finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins, yet were third in strikeouts.  They were the first team since 2012 to have an ERA over 4.00.  But the impressive strikeout totals indicated that there was some talent on the staff.  These projections still don’t love the pitching.  A couple newcomers to the rotation, Jose Berrios and Aaron Sanchez, should fuel some optimism though.  Sanchez is particularly interesting coming off an injury riddled season.  He was the third overall pick in the draft just a year ago.  Jacob deGrom remains the ace of the staff and Carlos Martinez fits nicely into the #2 slot.  Brad Hand, Archie Bradley and Chris Devenski are newcomers to the bullpen, joining Corey Knebel to make up an impressive group of power arms.  They may not have elite save numbers, but these guys will help prop up the Darkhorses strikeout numbers.  The strength of the roster remains the offense.  The core of the lineup is essentially the same as last year.  Bryce Harper appears primed to have a MVP caliber season as he heads into free agency.  Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain are now playing in homer friendly Milwaukee.  George Springer helps round out quite possibly the best outfield in the league.  The infield is pretty darn good too with Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy and Alex Bregman.  One key player who was a little disappointing a year ago is Xander Bogaerts.  Expect much better numbers from him this season.  The pieces are definitely in place for the Darkhorses to be a championship contender.  How much improvement they get out of their rotation will be the determining factor.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 4th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (2nd)
  • Wins – 1st (3rd)
  • Saves – 3rd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Points – 5th (5th-T)

Summary:

According to these prognostications, no team looks more similar to the 2017 version of themselves than the Moonshiners.  Almost across the board, they are expected to finish close to where they were a year ago.  This means they once again have a below average hitting squad paired with one of the best pitching staffs in the league.  Brian Dozier and Khris Davis are the lone Moonshiners with batting PAR projections over 4.0.  They were their top two hitters a year ago as well.  But this doesn’t mean improvements haven’t been made.  All three of their top draft picks could give this offense a big boost:  Rafael Devers, Ian Happ and Paul DeJong.  Another guy to watch is Gregory Polanco who never really got on track last year after coming over in a trade with the Kings.  Jake Lamb and Miguel Sano make up a formidable duo at the keystone corner.  Batting average looks like the Moonshiners worst category.  They are slated to finish nearly 10 points behind the next worst team.  The pitching staff remains strong.  Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Dallas Keuchel and Jeff Samardzija all receive PAR projections over 4.0 and the fifth holdover, Kyle Hendricks, is perennially underrated.  Edwin Diaz, Roberto Osuna and Brandon Morrow give the Moonshiners three elite closers and a decent shot at leading the league in saves again this year.  This is as deep of a pitching staff as any in the league.  Last year was a nice step forward for the Moonshiners as they finished above seventh place for the first time since 2012.  They are no doubt setting their sights higher this season.  If their top hitting additions can outperform these projections, a reasonable possibility, they could be in the hunt for their first league championship.

Posted in Darkhorses, Moonshiners | No Comments »

Komodos Nab Bellinger

Monday, March 19th, 2018

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The 2018 DTBL Draft kicked off Thursday, March 8.  The first pick belonged to the league’s newest member, Kat’s Komodos.  Inheriting a Gators roster that was well stocked with hitters but very much lacking in pitching, the biggest question going into the draft was if they would select a player based on need or take the best player available.  The Komodos did the latter, picking the consensus top player in the draft pool, Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger.  As usual, the first round as a whole skewed young with nine DTBL rookies selected, four of whom didn’t make their MLB debuts until after the All-Star break last season.  The first round was light on pitching this year as eight of the top ten were hitters.

In retrospect, the decision to take Bellinger with the first pick was probably pretty easy for the Komodos.  The reigning National League Rookie of the Year will give them a huge power boost and may even position them as one of the deepest offensive teams in the league.  Bellinger made his presence known right from the start.  He was a NL All-Star as a rookie.  He hit 39 home runs with 97 RBI and 87 runs despite not making his debut until late April.  His .267 average was quite respectable for a slugging rookie and he even stole 10 bases.  Bellinger should be a star for the Komodos for a long time to come.

In many ways, the Kings faced a similar predicament to the Komodos with the second pick and made the same decision, taking the player they believed to be the best available despite it not being a position of great need.  With that pick, the Kings selected first baseman turned outfielder Rhys Hoskins.  The Phillies young slugger came up through the minors as a modestly rated prospect who did nothing but mash at every level of the minors.  That continued in the majors, despite also having to learn a new position at the big league level.  Hoskins slugged 18 homers in just 50 major league games, pumping out a ridiculous 1.014 OPS.  With the Phillies signing Carlos Santana this winter, it appears they will continue to deploy Hoskins to the outfield.  Even if that goes poorly, Hoskins’ bat will force its way into the lineup on a daily basis.

With the third pick, the Jackalope were able to do both of the things mentioned above:  pick the best player available and fill a glaring hole in the roster.  They selected Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino.  Severino is technically a DTBL rookie, having never appeared on an active roster before.  But this is the second time he has been drafted.  The Naturals picked him in the 5th round in 2016, but he started the season in the minors and was released in May.  After that disappointing ’16 campaign, he was removed from the league last year, causing us to miss out on his breakout season.  In 2017, he became one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP with 14 wins and 230 strikeouts.  The Jackalope pitching staff really struggled a year ago, making Severino a perfect fit.  They are also quite heavy on Yankees now, employing Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Sonny Gray and Dellin Betances.  Not a bad group.

The top three of the draft seemed pretty clear cut.  Predicting who would go fourth and beyond was a bit more challenging.  The Choppers had the fourth pick and used it on second baseman Whit Merrifield who went from relative obscurity to fantasy monster during the course of the 2017 season.  The Royals infielder hit .288 with 19 home runs, 34 stolen bases, 80 runs and 78 RBI.  He was a plus contributor to all five categories, but especially stolen bases.  The Choppers had the worst offense in the league last year (in terms of batting points), so adding a do-it-all infielder makes plenty of sense.  It remains to be seen if the power was real, but in today’s home run climate, it seems quite possible it was.

Last year, the Moonshiners somewhat regretted passing on a young Red Sox up-and-comer in the first round in Andrew Benintendi.  They ensured that the same mistake wouldn’t be made again this year, grabbing third baseman Rafael Devers with the fifth pick.  Devers was just 20 years old when he made his MLB debut last summer.  But he earned his promotion by demolishing every level of the minors on his way up.  And the hitting continued when he reached the big leagues.  He hit .284 with 10 homers in 58 major league games.  Considering his age, the sky is the limit with this guy.  Early signs are that he is going to be a great hitter with above average power.  That should make him a fixture at hot corner for the Moonshiners for a very long time.

While hitters took most of the spotlight of the first round, there were a couple very intriguing pitchers selected as well.  The second of those was Twins starter Jose Berrios, picked sixth by the Darkhorses.  Berrios earned elite prospect status on his ascension up the minor league ladder, but a rocky MLB debut season in 2016 dampened expectations a bit.  But in 2017, he regained his status as an exciting young hurler.  He posted a solid 3.89 ERA and 1.229 WHIP with 14 wins and 139 strikeouts in 145 innings, helping lead the Twins to a surprising Wild Card berth.  He should immediately boost a Darkhorses pitching staff that finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins last season.

The Demigods selected the lone non-DTBL rookie of the first round with pick number seven.  Outfielder Ender Inciarte continues to be one of the more underrated all-around players in baseball.  With a weak Braves team around him last year, he managed to hit .304 with 11 homers, 93 runs scored and 22 stolen bases.  What a difference a year can make to a player’s stock.  The Darkhorses drafted Inciarte for the second time last year, in the 12th round.  Now he’s a first rounder.  For the record, the Darkhorses also drafted him in the fourth round in 2016.  With the investment of a first round pick, I have a feeling he will stick around for a while this time with the Demigods.

Following that selection of a DTBL “veteran”, the Cougars picked an outfielder who will be a rookie in this league, but is actually almost three years older than Inciarte.  Now 30 years old, Tommy Pham broke out big time for the Cardinals in ’17.  He hit .306 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases, becoming a legitimate five category force, seemingly out of nowhere.  This has become a consistent trend in the Cardinals organization:  late blooming non-prospects becoming excellent major league contributors.  There are plenty of reasons to believe Pham’s breakout is sustainable, most notably that he has been able to harness his degenerative vision problems.

For the second straight year, the Naturals used their first round pick on one of the top prospects in baseball who probably will spend a bulk of the upcoming season in the minors.  With the ninth pick, they selected young Nationals outfielder Victor Robles.  Considered the possible heir apparent to Bryce Harper in the Nats outfield, should Harper decide to take his talents elsewhere next winter, Robles has elite hitting, fielding and running skills.  Though not a big time slugger to this point of his career, scouts believe that will come as well.  MLB.com has him ranked as the #6 prospect in baseball and #1 among those who have already made their MLB debuts.  Robles is just 20 years old, so this is a long-term play for the Naturals.

Finally, the defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting another young hitter who splashed onto the scene late in the 2017 season, Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies.  Albies hit .286 with six home runs and eight stolen bases in 57 big league games, basically replicating the numbers he posted in AAA as a 20 year old.  So for those of you scoring at home, that’s three first round picks on guys who will enter the ’18 season at age 21 or younger (Albies, Devers, Robles).  The Mavericks don’t really have any holes, but Albies will slot in nicely at 2B.

The first round didn’t feature any trades this year, but there have been three separate deals since the first round ended, involving six different teams.  First, the Mavericks continued a revamp of their bullpen, dealing Aroldis Chapman to the Komodos for their second round pick (11th overall).  That pick was used on a very interesting pitcher, Alex Reyes.  Reyes should return from Tommy John surgery in May.  While his exact role remains a mystery, there are a few intriguing possibilities including closer or spot starter.  The fact that he will be designated as a reliever for this season could make him extremely valuable once he is healthy.  Meanwhile, Chapman gives the Komodos a reliable anchor in their bullpen which had no such commodities on the returning roster.

The next trade saw the Choppers flip their second round pick (14th overall) to the Naturals for outfielder Andrew McCutchen.  Once one of the best players in the league, McCutchen quietly put up pretty strong numbers across the board last year and will now be applying his craft in San Francisco.  As mentioned above, the Choppers needed a boost to their offense, so McCutchen should help to that end.  The Naturals used the acquired pick on the top closer in this draft, Pirates lefty Felipe Rivero, a former teammate of McCutchen’s.  Rivero had a dominant debut as a closer in ’17, saving 21 games with a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP.

The third deal was a swap of power hitters, in an attempt to clear position log jams on both ends.  The Kings dealt their longtime slugging outfielder Jay Bruce to the Cougars for first baseman Justin Bour.  On the Kings side, this was mostly a move to clear an overcrowded outfield, but also to get younger.  Trading away Bruce allowed them to select rookie outfielder Willie Calhoun with their subsequent pick, in the fifth round.  Of course, hours after they drafted Calhoun, he got sent to the minors.  But this was a future value play anyway.  Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t have much use for Bour after drafting Justin Smoak and Bruce fills a need for a power hitting outfielder.

With four rounds remaining in the draft, we should easily finish up with time to spare before Opening Day.  Thanks to everyone for keeping things moving.  I hope to start my season preview articles this upcoming weekend.  Until then, keep up the good work!

 

 

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Harper Stars in National Victory

Monday, July 17th, 2017


Strikeouts have been a prevailing factor in DTBL All-Star Games basically dating back to when we started using OOTP to sim the games.  However, whiffs have really been kicked into overdrive the past five Mid-Summer Classics.  All previous iterations pale in comparison to what happened at The Landing Pad, home of Charlie’s Thunder Choppers, in the 24th annual DTBL All-Star Game.  36 batters were retired via strikeouts, obliterating the old record of 30 set two years ago.  National Division pitchers struck out 19 hitters while opposing American hurlers racked up 17 K’s.  The National All-Stars got the better results from balls that were actually put in play though.  Bryce Harper reached base five times, leading the National squad to a 5-2 victory.

While 36 strikeouts is kind of ridiculous, it isn’t completely unbelievable when you look at the season stats of the pitchers on these two rosters.  And there are a fair number of All-Star hitters who strikeout at very high rates as well.  Yet the end results went way beyond anything that should have been expected.  This game was a BABIP inflator with the teams combining to hit .483 on balls in play.  Probably a good thing, or runs would have been really scarce.

The starting pitching match-up was identical to the MLB All-Star Game last Tuesday:  Chris Sale for the American Division against Max Scherzer for the National Division.  Both pitched two scoreless innings in this game, but Scherzer was far more dominant.  He retired all six hitters he faced, four via strikeouts.  Sale managed to scatter three hits and a walk in his two scoreless frames.  In his second inning, the first three batters recorded hits, but Khris Davis threw out Ryan Zimmerman at the plate on a Ryon Healy single to keep the National All-Stars off the board for the time being.

The American Division drew first blood in the top of the third when Salvador Perez homered off Clayton Kershaw.  Immediately following that, Kershaw allowed consecutive doubles to Corey Seager and Marcell Ozuna, which gave the American team a 2-0 lead.  That score would hold until the fifth.  Dallas Keuchel retired the first two hitters in the top of the fifth, but then ran into trouble.  Bryce Harper walked for the second of three times in the game.  Mike Trout then knocked him in with a double to deep right-center.  That cut the American lead in half heading to the second half of the game.

One of the most pivotal moments of the game came in the bottom of the fifth.  The American All-Stars were looking to break things open against Carlos Martinez.  They loaded the bases thanks to a pair of walks and a Trea Turner pinch hit single.  Giancarlo Stanton came to the plate looking to unload the bases.  Instead, he grounded out to second to end the inning.  The Americans put a couple more runners on base via singles in the sixth, but that rally ended on a strikeout of Chris Owings by Corey Knebel.  The game was delayed due to rain for 66 minutes during the top of the 6th.  To the best of my recollection, this was the first rain delay in a DTBL All-Star Game.  Eventually, the game moved to the seventh with the American All-Stars still ahead 2-1.

Greg Holland took the mound for the American Division to start the seventh.  He did not fare well.  Carlos Correa started the inning with a walk and immediately scored on a Charlie Blackmon double to tie the game.  Harper then walked yet again.  Holland managed to get Mike Trout to fly out and Aaron Judge to strikeout and was on the verge of escaping further damage.  But Jose Altuve knocked a clutch single up the middle to score the go-ahead run.  That would prove to be the difference.

The National Division added some insurance in the ninth inning off the usually unhittable Craig Kimbrel.  Harper reached base safely for the fifth time, starting the inning with a bomb over the right field fence.  Trout made it back-to-back home runs with a 410 foot blast to left-center.  Kenley Jansen made quick work of the American team in the bottom of the ninth, striking out a pair and then getting Turner to ground out to end the game.  The National Division recorded a 5-2 victory.  Corey Knebel picked up the win, Greg Holland took the loss and Jansen earned the save.

Bryce Harper was an easy selection as the game’s Most Valuable Player.  He reached base in all five plate appearances, going 2 for 2 with 3 walks, a home run and two runs scored.  Perhaps most notably, he did not strike out.  Very few other hitters in this game could make that claim.  Khris Davis wore the golden sombrero, striking out four times.  Another hitter with a less than spectacular game was Aaron Judge who struck out three times and hit into a double play.  Some of the top pitching performances belonged to Scherzer and his Nationals, and National Division, teammate Stephen Strasburg who combined to strike out seven batters in three innings.  On the American side, Roberto Osuna was the top pitcher, striking out all four batters he faced.

This was the second straight victory for the National Division.  They now hold a 13-11 lead in the all-time DTBL All-Star series.  Next year will mark the 25th Anniversary of the league and the 25th All-Star Game.  Perhaps fittingly, Kevin’s Kings will have the honor of hosting that milestone game.

Box Score

Posted in All-Star Game, Darkhorses | 2 Comments »

Homer/Whiff Trends Continue

Saturday, May 6th, 2017


The early returns are in and the statistical trends of the past few seasons seem to be continuing into 2017.  Last year featured the most home runs in the DTBL since 2001 and the highest K/IP rate in league history.  I didn’t take the time to compute the exact home run and strikeout pace for the league this season, but based on MLB numbers, it appears the all-time league total single season home run and strikeout records are in jeopardy of falling this year.  In MLB, there have been 1.17 HR per team, per game this season, up slightly from 1.16 last year and virtually tied with the all-time record in 2000.  Considering that the weather hasn’t even started to heat up in many of the league’s cities yet, this number only figures to rise.  Meanwhile, batters are whiffing at a significantly higher rate than last season’s record breaking number.  So far this season, there have been 8.22 strikeouts per team, per game, way up from last year’s record 8.03.

Obviously, the surge in home runs and strikeouts has a big impact on those two categories in this league, but other categories as well.  The league batting average sits at just .260 right now, which would be the lowest mark in league history by eight points!  While batters are reaching base safely via hits at a much lower rate, scoring overall is actually up.  The league ERA sits at 3.65, which is higher than the full season total from any of the past seven seasons.  So, in summary, strikeouts and homers are way up, runs are slightly up and batting average is way down.  The era of the three true outcome hitters (home runs, strikeouts, walks) appears to be here to stay for a while.

Players of the Month are back again for another season.  As usual, these awards will be handed out to the batter and pitcher who had the highest PAR for the month.  I will also continue to use these articles to chronicle the winners of the weekly honors as well.  Here are the top players from the first month of the 2017 season.

Batters of the Week:

Week 1 (4/2 – 4/9) – Nomar Mazara, Mavericks
Week 2 (4/10 – 4/16) – Marcell Ozuna, Naturals
Week 3 (4/17 – 4/23) – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
Week 4 (4/24 – 4/30) – Ryan Zimmerman, Demigods

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 1 (4/2 – 4/9) – Jake Arrieta, Jackalope
Week 2 (4/10 – 4/16) – James Paxton, Naturals
Week 3 (4/17 – 4/23) – Max Scherzer, Kings
Week 4 (4/24 – 4/30) – Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners

As the above names indicate, April was a good month for the Nationals and players looking for a bounce-back after disappointing seasons a year ago.  Harper, Zimmerman and Keuchel were among some of the most disappointing players in the league last year, compared to their varying expectations.  So far, so good in 2017.  Here are the monthly award winners for April:

Batter of the Month:

Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
.391 AVG, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 32 R, 0 SB, 3.31 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners
1.21 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 3.83 PAR

For the second consecutive season, Bryce Harper has won the April Batter of the Month award.  Of course, last year, things started to go off the rails for Harper soon after the calendar turned to May.  But there are plenty of reasons to think that won’t happen again this year.  For one thing, he looks healthier.  Also, his April was even better this year than last.  He is easily leading the league in runs scored and is right near the top in AVG, HR and RBI as well.  I didn’t run the numbers to confirm it, but I believe this honor would have actually gone to Harper’s Nationals teammate Ryan Zimmerman had he been on the Demigods roster right from Opening Day.  Despite spending a week as a free agent, Zimmerman still came in second in the league in PAR for April.  Another Demigod, Freddie Freeman was third.

April was a very encouraging month from Dallas Keuchel.  He currently leads the league in wins and is third in both ERA and WHIP.  If he has returned to 2015 form, the Moonshiners should be in good shape.  Keuchel won this monthly honor fairly easily, but three other pitchers had outstanding months as well.  Two not very surprising names:  Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale, and one not so expected:  James Paxton.  Unfortunately, Paxton’s hot start was tempered a bit as he was placed on the DL yesterday.

One last note.  I knew this day was coming, but it appears Getty now has ads embedded in their images.  It is annoying, but I think I’m going to continue to use them anyway as I’m not aware of another similar free/legal source for baseball photos.

Posted in Awards, Darkhorses, Moonshiners | No Comments »

2017 Season Preview: Part I

Thursday, March 30th, 2017


We are just days away from the start of the 25th DTBL season.  A quarter century doing this.  I guess that means we’re getting old.  Anyway, there will be time for nostalgia later.  For now, it is time to start looking at what we might see in this upcoming season.  Last season ended with the Kings winning the championship by just about the narrowest margin imaginable.  The Demigods came painfully close to their first title while the Choppers and Mavericks were also in the race in the closing days of the season.  It seems quite possible that we could have a thrilling finish again this year as a whole bunch of teams figure to be in contention.  Which teams have the early edge?  As has become custom, I have compiled projected stats for all the players and teams in the league and have used those numbers to create projected standings.

I have made a small change to these projections from previous years.  But first, please check out this post from four years ago for a refresher on how these projections are created.  Here is what has changed for 2017.  Instead of simply using ZiPS projections (and Steamer for saves), I have decided to use FanGraphs’ Depth Charts Projections.  These projections combine ZiPS and Steamer and then are adjusted by FanGraphs staffers based on expected playing time.  I decided this set of numbers would be preferable to simply using ZiPS for a couple reasons.  First, more input is generally better than less, so two separate systems are being used to create these numbers.  Second, the playing time adjustments make sense to more accurately determine how much of an impact a player is likely to have this season.  It is worth noting that this change will hurt players who figure to spend a chunk of the season in the minors, like Yoan Moncada, for example.  Moncada’s Depth Charts projection is for 266 plate appearances whereas ZiPS has him at 650.  There is virtually no chance Moncada will have 650 plate appearances this year.  So I think Depth Charts paints a more accurate picture, but you are free to disagree.  One last thing to note is that some of these playing time projections have changed as spring training has progressed.  The numbers I am using were taken from just days before the start of the draft.  So that is something to consider as well.

As we begin to dive into these team previews, keep in mind that these projections are nice, but almost certainly won’t come close to predicting the actual results of the 2017 season.  Last year’s projections had the Kings finishing sixth and the Jackalope repeating as champions.  That didn’t exactly happen.  On the other hand, the projections did quite accurately predict that the Demigods and Choppers would be serious title contenders.  So anyway, many grains of salt should be taken when digesting this information.  I do believe it is an interesting way to preview the season without making any enemies by posting my personal predictions.

Without further ado, let’s get to the projections.  Today, I will preview the teams projected to finish in the bottom three spots in the standings.  These projections are especially harsh on the last place squad, but show room for improvement for the other two teams as well.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (10th)
  • Wins – 10th (10th)
  • Saves – 8th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
  • Total Points – 10th (8th)

Summary:

The above numbers aren’t pretty, but one potential reason for optimism is that the Gators have easily exceeded offensive projections the past two years, so there may be something these systems don’t like about their hitters.  They are clearly a speed first team, but they have a bunch of really good power hitters as well.  Wil Myers and Jean Segura were the breakout stars last year.  Corey Seager figures to take another step towards superstar status this season.  Jose Ramirez is the top offensive newcomer and should fit in nicely as an outstanding hitter who can run too.  I’m definitely taking the over on the batting projection.  Pitching, on the other hand, has been the Gators’ sore spot for a while now.  They do not have a truly dominant ace, although Jose Quintana could be one if he played for a different MLB team.  If he were to get traded by the White Sox, that could be a huge gain for the Gators.  Aaron Sanchez was tabbed with the third pick in the draft, so they are obviously counting on him to carry a heavy load.  Jharel Cotton is a very intriguing addition to the rotation too.  The bullpen features arguably the best closer in baseball in Zach Britton.  However, he is currently the only guy in the pen expected to open the season as a closer.  It will require vastly exceeding these projections for the Gators to put an end to their six year run in the bottom three of the standings.  Interestingly enough though, the only time they have ever finished in last place was the very first year of this league, 1993, when there were only five teams.  Can they avoid last place once again?

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (4th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (4th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (6th)
  • Wins – 9th (8th)
  • Saves – 10th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (7th)
  • Total Points – 9th (5th)

Summary:

This feels like the weirdest projection we will see in this series, by far.  Last year, the Darkhorses finished a respectable fifth place and had the best offense in the league.  So how did they fall all the way to 9th here?  I can’t really answer that.  I even double-checked the numbers to make sure I didn’t screw up something.  I like this team a lot, especially the bats.  Bryce Harper is close to a lock to improve on his pedestrian numbers from last season.  Maybe a step back from Daniel Murphy is to be expected, but newcomer Alex Bregman should easily make up for that.  Christian Yelich and George Springer are also on the verge of greatness in my opinion, and interestingly enough, both will be moving to full time gigs in center field this year.  There is a lot to like about the Darkhorses’ offense.  The pitching staff is a far bigger question mark.  Can Rick Porcello come close to matching his 2016 AL Cy Young campaign?  Will youngsters Julio Urias and Tyler Glasnow flourish in the big leagues this season?  There is significant upside in the rotation, but also a lot of unknowns.  The bullpen isn’t great, but could be much more interesting if Hector Neris is rightfully given the Phillies closer job early in the season.  They should easily exceed this saves projection.  Overall, I think the Darkhorses could be a contender, despite what these numbers show.  It will come down to how the young pitchers perform.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
  • Wins – 2nd (4th-T)
  • Saves – 2nd (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (5th)
  • Total Points – 8th (7th)

Summary:

Like the other two teams in this article, the Moonshiners have a recent trend of exceeding expectations.  Despite finishing 7th and being projected for 8th this year, there are actually a lot of positives here.  As you will see when I post the full standings projections at the end of the series, the Moonshiners are actually expected to improve by more than 10 standings points from last year.  It is just how they happened to shake out in comparison to other teams that pushed them down to 8th.  It is pretty clear that the offense should be better this year, despite trading away two of their key veteran hitters:  Kyle Seager and Ian Kinsler.  Instead, they now have some significant young potential in guys like Gregory Polanco and Jonathan Villar.  Villar alone will ensure they don’t finish anywhere near last in steals again.  And there is a ton of power in the lineup too with guys like Brian Dozier, Khris Davis, Miguel Sano, Evan Gattis and Brad Miller.  Batting average could be a problem, but they should see significant improvement in the other four hitting categories.  The pitching staff will still be led by veterans Dallas Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke along with last year’s breakout sensation Kyle Hendricks.  The Moonshiners seem to have a guy like that every year (Keuchel the year before), so who will it be this season?  Perhaps Jon Gray or Robbie Ray.  The bullpen is quite strong with the additions of the two best closers available in this draft:  Edwin Diaz and Seung Hwan Oh.  The Moonshiners have finished in 7th place four years in a row.  Despite the projection of 8th, these numbers actually show a very strong likelihood of them taking a positive step forward this season.

Posted in Darkhorses, Gators, Moonshiners | No Comments »

Story-book Beginning

Monday, March 20th, 2017


Thought to be a weaker than usual draft class, at least compared to the past few seasons, there was still no shortage of young potential superstars taken in the first part of the 2017 DTBL Draft.  The 25th version of this pre-season ritual kicked off Thursday, March 9.  The Cougars decided to start things with a Story, Trevor Story to be exact.  What followed in the first round was the typical parade of youngsters, this year mostly dominated by hitters.  But there were a couple intriguing pitchers selected as well.  Potential tends to trump proven performance in the early stages of this league’s drafts, but that was especially the case this year as a player who will likely start the season in the minors was among the first five players taken.  I don’t recall that ever happening before.  Here’s a recap of how the first round went down.

The Cougars kicked things off with perhaps the surest thing among this DTBL rookie class.  A year ago at this time, Trevor Story was earning his spot as the Rockies starting shortstop, despite not yet having made his MLB debut.  It didn’t take long for him to make an impression though.  He cruised his way through his first four months in the big leagues, slugging 27 home runs with 72 RBI and a .272 average.  He appeared to be a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year award.  But then he tore a ligament in his thumb and missed the final two months of the season.  Nonetheless, he appears to be a safe bet as a major power contributor at a premium position playing in the hitters paradise in Denver.  He was pretty close to a no-brainer selection for the Cougars who finished dead last in homers last year.

The Jackalope followed by selecting another slugger who wasted no time making an impression in the big leagues.  Despite not making his season debut until August, catcher Gary Sanchez slugged his way to being the runner up for AL Rookie of the Year.  In just 53 games, Sanchez hit 20 home runs while posting a .299 average.  Sanchez should immediately become one of the best fantasy catchers in the league, and considering how shallow the talent pool is at that position, could be irreplaceable for the Jackalope for some time to come.  Sanchez going second was easily the earliest selection of a catcher since Buster Posey was the first overall pick in 2011.

On paper, this appeared to be a hitter heavy draft, with no pitchers as obvious selections at the top of the draft.  But the Gators were in serious need of pitching help and believe they found a potential ace in Aaron Sanchez.  Sanchez is technically not a DTBL rookie, having debuted as a relief pitcher for the Naturals in 2015.  But last year was his first chance to earn his stripes as a starter and it went quite well.  He won 15 games with a 3.00 ERA, marks that exceeded all Gators starters last year.  He will join Jose Quintana in hopes of improving the league’s worst pitching staff of a season ago.

Like Sanchez, the fourth overall selection is also not a DTBL rookie.  The Moonshiners picked shortstop Jonathan Villar, who prior to 2016 had been a fantasy and real-life afterthought.  The Brewers picked him up from the Astros in exchange for a low level minor leaguer.  In Villar’s three seasons in Houston, he hit a total of 10 home runs and never topped 18 steals in a season.  Then he showed up in Milwaukee and slugged 19 homers with a MLB leading 62 stolen bases in 2016.  From cast-off to one of the most valuable fantasy players in the entire league.  It is hard to know for sure if last season was the new normal for Villar, but if he even comes close to reaching those numbers again, this will be a great pick by the Moonshiners.  Villar went hitless in 17 at bats for the Naturals way back in 2014, yet he is still just 25 years old.

The fifth pick was unquestionably the biggest risk/reward selection of the first round.  The Naturals went with the White Sox newly acquired phenom Yoan Moncada.  A third baseman for this season, he will likely shift to 2B in the future.  Moncada was the main piece of the winter blockbuster that sent Chris Sale from Chicago to Boston.  For service time and development reasons, Moncada is unlikely to begin the season in the majors.  But he is regarded as either the best or second best prospect in the game, depending on the publication.  He has impressive power and speed, making him an incredibly intriguing fantasy asset.  The Naturals have had success with taking chances on top prospects.  Just last year, they took Trea Turner despite knowing he would begin the year in the minors. That certainly paid off.  Of course, that was an eighth round pick, not fifth overall.  So there is tremendous risk with this selection as well, but the payoff could be huge.

The next two picks were guys with similar lofty prospect pedigrees to Moncada, but who have proven themselves a little more in the big leagues.  The Darkhorses were probably extremely surprised to be able to draft third baseman Alex Bregman with the sixth pick in the draft.  Although not a position of need for them, Bregman’s talent was far too enticing to pass up.  Despite getting off to a very rough start upon promotion, Bregman rebounded nicely to hit .264 with eight homers and 34 RBI in just 49 games.  He figures to anchor the hot corner for the Darkhorses and Astros for some time to come.

While many publications have Moncada ranked as the top prospect in baseball, others give the nod to his former Red Sox teammate, outfielder Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi can flat out hit.  He had a solid big league debut, which led to him being a starter for the Red Sox in the post-season, just a month into his big league career.  The Mavericks will add him to their impressive stable of young talent.

The eighth pick featured the second pitcher of the draft.  The Choppers selected Royals lefty Danny Duffy.  Duffy was once a highly touted prospect, but had only a modest track record before last season.  But he is now the unquestioned ace of the Royals staff.  He struck out 188 batters in 180 innings with an impressive 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  The Choppers now lay claim to three of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball:  Duffy, Chris Sale and Jon Lester.

The first round of the previous two DTBL drafts featured three Cubs.  This year, just one.  With the ninth pick, the Demigods took Cubs catcher Willson Contreras.  Contreras also started hitting immediately upon promotion.  He hit .282 with 12 home runs in 76 games.  He immediately earned regular time, both behind the plate and in the outfield, for a team loaded with talent.  He will join Buster Posey to create an enviable catching duo for the Demigods.

The Kings ended the first round the way it started, with a Rockie.  The defending champions selected outfielder David Dahl.  Dahl was a candidate to be selected earlier in the round, but probably fell a bit due to a rib injury that he continues to nurse.  He will almost certainly begin the season on the disabled list.  However, it is hard to pass up on a power/speed guy who plays half his games in Colorado.  Dahl hit .315 with seven home runs and five stolen bases in 63 big league games.

There were not any trades involving first round picks, but there was one deal completed during the first round and two more in the second.  Here is a brief summary of those deals.  The Kings traded promising young outfielder Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for established star third baseman Kyle Seager.  The primary motivation for the Kings was to clear a bit of space in their crowded outfield (and eventually led to their interest in picking Dahl) while acquiring a proven commodity at a weak spot on their roster.  Meanwhile, the Moonshiners added a much needed potential young star in Polanco.  He and Villar could immediately become their best offensive players.

The Moonshiners were not done dealing, however.  They also sent their long time star second baseman Ian Kinsler to the Jackalope for a second round pick (12th overall).  That pick was used to select promising young closer Edwin Diaz.  Kinsler spent ten impressive years with the Moonshiners and will now help solidify the Jackalope middle infield.

Finally, the third trade of the early portion of the draft sent Odubel Herrera from the Naturals to the Demigods for the Demigods’ second round pick (19th overall).  The Naturals used that pick on shortstop Jose Peraza.  Herrera gives the Demigods another power/speed guy who fills a major need for outfield depth.

In summary, the first round featured eight DTBL rookies, two who still have MLB rookie eligibility (Moncada and Benintendi), and nine guys who are 25 or younger (all but Duffy).  While there may not have been as many top level certain superstars in this draft, there was still an impressive infusion of young talent.

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Reviewing the Rest

Saturday, November 12th, 2016


For the six teams who were not in the running for the DTBL Championship in the final weeks of the season, 2016 was mostly a disappointment. However, a few of these teams did show promise and had their moments when they too appeared to be among the better teams in the league. Unlike last year though, there were some teams that finished so far behind the leaders that they appear to have a huge rebuilding task ahead of them. Here is a brief summary of the 2016 seasons for the six non-contenders.

A fifth place finish for the Darkhorses is probably a little disappointing considering they finished in third a year ago and have one of the most exciting young corps of players in the league. But they actually came closer to winning it all this year than last. They had the best offense in the league, leading the way with 40.5 batting points. Edwin Encarnacion, Daniel Murphy and Xander Bogaerts were the top offensive stars, but many others emerged this season like George Springer, Christian Yelich and Justin Turner. Unfortunately for them, their pitching kept them from being a true title contender. Rick Porcello became a surprise staff ace and Carlos Martinez rewarded them for their faith in making him a first round draft pick. But they didn’t have a lot of pitching depth. If they can shore up this staff with one or two more solid hurlers, they will be a scary team next year.

For much of the year, this looked like it was going to be one of the worst seasons in Naturals franchise history. They were toiling near the bottom of the standings as late into the season as early September. But a late rally pushed them up to a sixth place finish, the same spot they settled for a year ago. Part of the reason for that surge was a resurgence of two of their veteran stars: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. Another was the incredible performance by rookie Trea Turner, who nearly cracked the PAR leaderboard despite spending half the year in the minors. But the star of the team from start to finish was Nolan Arenado who led the league in RBI and was near the top in home runs and runs as well. Despite a pedestrian season overall, the Naturals may come away as the big winners from the 2016 Draft. In addition to Turner, who was an enormous steal in the eighth round, they also solidified their pitching staff for years to come with their first round selection of Noah Syndergaard. He was easily their best pitcher this season. The Naturals remain one of the league’s most talented teams, even if the results haven’t been there the past two years.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Moonshiners finished in seventh place. Yes, for the fourth consecutive year, they finished the season in the seven hole. It is obviously not the place they want to be. This year, it was a very weak offense that kept them from moving on up. They finished with just seven batting points and were dead last in every offensive category except for home runs. Really, their entire offense was carried by their two star second basemen, Brian Dozier and Ian Kinsler. Other than that, not much to write home about. Losing Prince Fielder to an early retirement was especially disappointing. There is a lot of work that needs to be done to their lineup. Things weren’t as bad for the pitching staff, although there were some disappointments there too. On the positive side, for the second straight year, the Moonshiners were the proud owners of the Cy Young candidate who came out of nowhere. This year, it was Kyle Hendricks who led the league in ERA and WHIP. Last year, it was Dallas Keuchel. However, Hendricks was pretty much the lone bright spot in the rotation. Their dynamic trio from a year ago, Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, all had disappointing seasons this time around.

Through the first couple months of the season, one of the best stories in the league was the return to power of the Gators, a franchise that hasn’t finished in the top half of the standings since 2008 and hasn’t finished above the bottom three spots since 2010. Unfortunately for them, their season unravelled in the second half and that streak of bottom three finishes continued with another eighth place finish. They had the opposite problem as the Moonshiners. They had a decent enough offense, but easily the league’s worst pitching. The offense was carried by two unexpected sources: breakout star and former first round pick Wil Myers and previously enigmatic shortstop Jean Segura. Segura was one of four players to put up a 20/30 HR/SB season. You may be familiar with the other three: Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Altuve. The Gators easily led the league in stolen bases thanks to Segura, Myers, Starling Marte and Dee Gordon. The pitching staff was a mess, with two notable exceptions: Jose Quintana and Zach Britton. Britton accumulated 47 saves with an absurdly low 0.54 ERA. One of these years, the Gators are going to put it all together. But they are definitely going to need to improve the pitching staff to get to that point.

We nearly had the preposterous situation of one team going from worst to first and another doing the exact opposite this year. However, the defending champion Jackalope were just barely able to avoid finishing dead last while settling for ninth place. Simply put, this season was a write-off for the Jackalope. After everything went their way a year ago, very little went right in 2016. And not to make excuses, but Jay had a pretty good one. He spent most of the summer preparing for a deployment and simply didn’t have time to manage his roster. Had his team been more competitive, we probably would have found a temporary replacement. But anyway, this is still a team loaded with talent. Josh Donaldson had another elite season. Paul Goldschmidt had one of the quietest 24 home run, 32 stolen base years a player has ever had. They did not get even close to the same kind of production out of their starting rotation as they did in ’15. Jake Arrieta was good, but definitely not the same. Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray had injury riddled years. And overall, the roster just wasn’t as deep as it was in their championship campaign. Next year will almost certainly be better for this squad.

Before the season, I tabbed the Cougars as the most improved team in the league. Well, that didn’t really pan out. For the second time in three years, the Cougars finished in last place. They were among the bottom teams in the league in both batting and pitching points, so there weren’t a ton of bright spots. But there was one: second overall draft pick Kris Bryant, who already appears to be one of the best players in the league. He slugged 39 homers with 102 RBI and 121 runs scored. Charlie Blackmon also quietly emerged as one of the top players in the league. Most of their other key players had disappointing seasons, however. The pitching staff was surprisingly ineffective. Madison Bumgarner was his usual dominant self. But other than him, there weren’t many good performances to point to from this staff. To end on a positive note, this season was proof that a last place finish is hardly a disqualifier for contending the following season. So there is hope for 2017 for the Cougars.

Posted in Cougars, Darkhorses, Gators, Jackalope, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Players of the Month: April

Wednesday, May 11th, 2016


Yes, I am continuing last year’s feature of naming a DTBL Batter and Pitcher of the Month following each month of the season.  Yes, we are more than a third of the way through May already.  No, I haven’t announced the April winners yet.  No, I don’t have a particularly good excuse for my tardiness.  Away we go…

As a reminder, these Players of the Month selections are not subjective.  I am simply calculating each player’s PAR for the month and giving the awards to the batter and pitcher who led the league in that category.  I will also use these monthly posts to run down the list of players who won the weekly honors, which are also given to the players with the highest PAR during that week.

Although the 2016 season is still quite young, it does seem fairly clear that we will not have a repeat of last season with one team running away from the competition right from the start.  April saw a bunch of teams swap the top spots in the standings.  At the end of the month, the top half of the standings looked like a bit of a flashback to the early years of the league more so than recent seasons.  The Choppers finished the month in first place, with the Gators and Kings in the mix as well.  The defending champion Jackalope appear to be quite strong again and the Mavericks are right there as usual.  As for individual player performances, April was dominated by a number of players.  Before we get to the best players of the month, here are the weekly award winners:

Batters of the Week:

Week 1 (4/3 – 4/10) – Eugenio Suarez, Cougars
Week 2 (4/11 – 4/17) – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
Week 3 (4/18 – 4/24) – Welington Castillo, Gators
Week 4 (4/25 – 5/1) - Victor Martinez, Mavericks

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 1 (4/3 – 4/10) - Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks
Week 2 (4/11 – 4/17) - Chris Sale, Choppers
Week 3 (4/18 – 4/24) - Drew Smyly, Moonshiners
Week 4 (4/25 – 5/1) - Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks

There are some pretty surprising names on that list of hitters.  But the one of them who won the monthly award is not hard to identify.  Kershaw won half of the weekly pitching honors, but was edged out for the monthly award.  Here are the award winners for April 2016:

Batter of the Month:

Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
.286 AVG, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 16 R, 5 SB, 2.17 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Chris Sale, Choppers
1.66 ERA, 0.684 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 32 K, 3.41 PAR

Harper, the reigning NL MVP, picked up right where he left off last season.  He actually faded a bit in the final week of April and almost lost this honor as a result.  But his first three weeks were simply awesome.  He finished April tied for the league lead in RBI and one behind the leader in home runs.  His five steals were just one short of his full season total in 2015.  Jose Altuve and Nolan Arenado also had great Aprils and I believe both passed Harper in PAR on the first day of May.

Early in 2016, Chris Sale’s strikeouts are down a bit.  But the rest of his numbers are as good or better than ever.  He won every game he started in April and led the league in both wins and WHIP.  His numbers were nearly identical to his crosstown counterpart, Jake Arrieta.  But Sale gets the nod for this award by finishing with a PAR that was a couple hundredths of a point higher.

Posted in Awards, Choppers, Darkhorses | No Comments »

2016 Season Preview: Part II

Saturday, April 2nd, 2016


Parts two and three of the 2016 DTBL season preview will cover six teams slated to finish in the middle of the pack with very little separation.  In particular, the teams projected to finish in fourth through eighth place are bunched within 4 1/2 points of each other.  So it wouldn’t take much for the three teams covered in this article to finish in the top half of the standings.  These teams are projected to finish safely ahead of the bottom two, but would need to significantly surpass these numbers to get into the title race.  There are signs of significant improvement over last year for two of these teams, while the third would be taking a huge step backwards if these prognostications were to come true.  Obviously, teams projected to finish in the bottom half of the standings have some weaknesses, but these three teams also have significant strengths that could carry them to higher places.  Here are the teams projected to finish in eighth, seventh and sixth places.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
  • Home Runs – 7th (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
  • Wins – 6th (2nd-T)
  • Saves – 9th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (7th)
  • Total Points – 8th (3rd)

Summary:

Okay, this is a pretty rough looking projection for a team that finished third last year.  But if you look closely at the numbers, the drop-off from a year ago is not that significant.  The 61.5 points they earned last year was more in line with a middle of the pack team most years.  But they are still slated to drop close to 10 points, which would make an eighth place finish pretty disappointing.  On the positive side, the offense looks very strong again.  They didn’t select a hitter until the fourth round of the draft, so this lineup is mostly the same as last year.  If Bryce Harper has another season like the last one, you can probably safely assume these team power projections are on the low side.  Todd Frazier, George Springer and Xander Bogaerts are three other players who seem primed for big years.  The concern is on the mound.  Last year, Jacob deGrom pretty much carried the rotation, but a pair of Carloses have been brought in to help:  Carlos Martinez and Carlos Rodon.  Those guys have huge upside, but modest projections in ERA and WHIP.  The bullpen is definitely a weakness at the moment with Brad Boxberger and Carson Smith hurt.  Jake McGee appears to be the only player on the roster who can be counted on for saves in April.  The Darkhorses absolutely have the talent to contend.  But we’ll have to see if they are able to outperform this iffy pitching forecast.

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 6th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (5th)
  • Wins – 3rd (4th)
  • Saves – 5th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (4th)
  • Total Points – 7th (9th)

Summary:

Although this projection only shows a two place jump, I think the Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the league.  First of all, their ninth place finish was a little misleading due to the tightness of the race to the bottom.  They actually looked like one of the stronger teams in the league early last season.  But a late season collapse sent them spiraling to 9th.  For quite some time now, they have had a very solid pitching staff but have been waiting for the offense to catch up.  Well, that time appears to have arrived.  The Cougars are actually projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points.  But the closeness of these middle teams has them just seventh overall.  The offense is much improved.  Kris Bryant will provide an immediate power boost, joining forces with holdovers Chris Davis and Jose Abreu.  Charlie Blackmon and Michael Brantley are two very underrated players as well.  This should be the best offensive team the Cougars have fielded since 2010.  The pitching staff is largely the same as last year, led by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer.  But the potential for a big boost here would be getting a full season out of Adam Wainwright.  The bullpen looks pretty strong with Cody Allen and David Robertson, but Drew Storen losing the closer gig in Toronto isn’t helpful.  Overall, this is a very solid team.  I’m betting the over on seventh place.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (8th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd-T (7th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (6th)
  • Wins – 10th (10th)
  • Saves – 3rd (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
  • Total Points – 6th (10th)

Summary:

This entire section requires a huge asterisk after news hit last night that A.J. Pollock broke his elbow.  Pollock was easily the Kings best, most irreplaceable offensive player last year.  So these projections showing them leading the league in batting points seems highly unlikely.  Having said that, the Kings still have far more talent than most teams coming off a last place season.  The offense was actually pretty good in 2015, but they were torpedoed by an awful pitching staff.  It looks to be the same story heading into 2016.  Carlos Correa and David Peralta will add to a strong group of returning hitters including Mookie Betts, Robinson Cano and Carlos Gonzalez.  If they are able to get bounce-back seasons out of Jay Bruce and Jonathan LuCroy, they definitely could have one of the best hitting teams in the league, even without Pollock.  The pitching staff, on the other hand, is still a huge problem.  It was basically Max Scherzer and a bunch of stiffs last year.  They are hoping Marcus Stroman can lend a hand and are hopeful for a bounce-back year from Jeff Samardzija.  The bullpen is a strength.  They will enter the season with four closers.  The Kings seem like a safe bet to improve on last year’s disaster.  But if they don’t get several pitchers to take their games to another level, another finish in the bottom half of the standings seems likely.

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