DTBL News

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We’ve reached the exact mid-point of the 2020 DTBL Sim regular season.  81 games down, 81 to go.  I thought I would use this milestone as an opportunity to review what we’ve seen so far.  Overall, I’m very pleased with the results.  I’ve enjoyed looking through the box scores each day and even occasionally playing out a game in front of me in OOTP.  It had been my only way of getting my baseball fix, until this week when ESPN starting airing live Korea Baseball Organization games.  Normally, I would have absolutely no interest in the KBO.  But there is nothing normal about our current way of life and I’ve been grateful to have been able to watch live baseball games.  Anyway, back to the DTBL sim.  I’m going to go over some general league-wide trends and then will do a quick review of each team’s performance thus far.

First, a little bit about how OOTP sims work, that goes beyond anything I described before the season started.  When a league is created in OOTP, it uses a set of league modifiers to influence the outcomes of the game sim engine.  Basically, this is a set of statistical outcomes that are expected throughout the course of the full season.  The primary set of numbers are:  AB, H, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, HBP, K and BABIP.  From those numbers, an expected triple slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) is computed.  I used the game’s default settings for its MLB universe, which I believe are primarily based on the 2019 season.  The resulting expected triple slash line for this league is .252/.325/.435, which is nearly identical to 2019 MLB’s .252/.323/.435.  There are also modifiers for things like groundball rate, pitcher stamina, base-running and defensive rates.  But I’m not totally sure I understand how all of those work, so I’m definitely not going to get into that here.  To sum it all up though, these modifiers are used by the sim engine to influence the results such that over the course of the full season, you should expect to see the league wide results come close to these numbers.  This means that the complete results are based on these modifiers, not the cumulative quality of the players within the game.  So a league filled with nothing but Mike Trout level hitters would produce relatively similar offensive results as a league filled with nothing but slap-hitters.  Thus, it is players’ quality relative to their peers within this sim that influences how they perform in this game, not how they actually perform in a real MLB universe.  So it is safe to assume that *most* players will produce worse stat lines in this sim compared to the MLB sim I am concurrently running since there are far more lower quality players in the MLB sim.

Getting back to that expected slash line of .252/.323/.435, you may wonder, how is that looking so far?  Well, as of today, the league-wide slash line is .248/.320/.429.  Of course, these numbers change daily and I know the league average was over .250 fairly recently.  So these results are pretty much in line with what I would expect.  But there is one stat that is a bit out of whack right now which is having an effect on other numbers as well:  strike out rate.  The current K% is 25.6%, which is pretty significantly higher than 2019 MLB’s record-breaking mark of 23.0%.  I noticed very early on that strikeouts were well above what I expected and it hasn’t really come down much since.  So this is something I will continue to monitor.  I expect the rate will eventually drop a bit, but at this point, I’m not certain.  Maybe there is something about the composition of this league full of power pitchers, with plenty of hitters who strike out a ton as well, that is causing the game to succumb to more than expected strikeouts.  But I’m not really sure.  I believe this is the primary culprit for scoring being down a bit from what I expected as well.  Teams are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is a little lower than MLB’s 4.8 in 2019.  Not a huge difference though, so I don’t consider this to be a problem.  Nor do I consider the strikeout rate to be a problem either.  More of a curiosity.

As for the DTBL teams, it has been quite an unexpected season thus far.  First place is currently held by the Demigods, who of course finished dead last in our league a season ago.  It has been a tight race all season though.  At least half of the teams have held first place at some point.  All ten teams have winning percentages that fall between .400 and .600, so there are no extraordinarily great or terrible teams.  Even the teams at the bottom of the standings could get right back into the playoff mix with a hot streak.  As a reminder, the top four teams will make the playoffs.  Currently, those spots are occupied by the Demigods, Mavericks, Choppers and Kings.  But the other six teams are all within eight games of the Kings.  Let’s go team-by-team to see how things are progressing.  I’ll go in the order of the current standings.

Demigods (48-33, 1st place) – Definitely the surprise of the league so far.  They are currently riding a six game winning streak and are 14-5 in June.  It has been a combination of good hitting and pitching as they rank 3rd and 2nd in runs scored and allowed.  Francisco Lindor is making a strong MVP case, second in the league in WAR at 3.4.  He is hitting .300 with a dozen homers and stolen bases.  The pitching staff has been solid, pretty much from top to bottom.  Corey Kluber leads the league with 11 wins (2 more than any other pitcher), but actually has the highest ERA of the rotation (4.71).  German Marquez and Aaron Nola have been great as well.

Mavericks (46-35, 2nd place, 2 GB) – Statistically speaking, the Mavericks have probably been the league’s best team to date.  They have the best pythag record, based on run difference.  They are second in runs scored and easily lead the way in fewest runs allowed and an impressive 3.74 staff ERA.  After getting off to a bit of a slow start, Mike Trout has resumed his usual status as the Mavericks best player with a 3.3 WAR.  Javy Baez and Manny Machado have each slugged 17 homers.  Jack Flaherty might be the front-runner for the Cy Young award.  He comfortably leads the league in ERA at 2.18 and is also the leader in strikeouts (137).  One question mark entering the season was how their very young bullpen would hold up.  So far, so good.  A.J. Puk, Dustin May and Michael Kopech have all been outstanding.

Choppers (45-36, 3rd place, 3 GB) – After the Demigods, the Choppers have been the next most pleasant surprise.  They have held the top spot in the standings on several occasions.  If you have ever wondered how a team would play in Coors Field if it were located somewhere closer to sea level, this might be your answer.  The Choppers have the league’s best offense, using the spacious outfield of their home park to lead the league in batting average and extra base hits despite being in the bottom half in home runs.  They have scored 34 more runs than any other team.  Pete Alonso and Anthony Rizzo have been the offensive stars.  The guy who has really been a surprise is Harrison Bader, who has 15 home runs and a respectable .252 average despite an alarming 124 strikeouts.  The pitching staff has held its own as well.  A healthy Chris Sale and Shane Bieber have anchored the staff.

Kings (42-39, 4th place, 6 GB) – The final playoff spot is currently occupied by the two-time defending champs.  It has been a roller coaster season for the Kings who are now trying to steady the ship after a spectacular March and April, followed by a terrible May.  The offense has been a microcosm of the actual Kings results the past couple years:  a whole lot of Mookie Betts and not much else.  Betts leads the league in WAR (4.0), AVG (.337), SLG (.580), OPS (.967), 2B (28), RBI (57) and a couple other categories.  The only other Kings hitter who has been having a notably decent season is Marcus Semien.  The pitching staff has been pretty good, but not great.  Max Scherzer was awesome for the first month or so, but has been struggling a bit of late.  Justin Verlander has been disappointing.  Lance McCullers has probably been the second best Kings pitcher.

Beanballers (41-40, 5th place, 7 GB) – The Beanballers have been steadily hovering around .500, keeping themselves in close striking distance of a playoff spot.  Jorge Soler is tied for the league lead in home runs with 20 and Trea Turner leads the way with 17 stolen bases.  Yoan Moncada and Nolan Arenado have been their best overall players, with Moncada moved over to his former position of second base to allow Arenado to man the hot corner.  Hyun-Jin Ryu has led the way on the pitching side, putting up numbers similar to his first half of 2019.  He has a 2.46 ERA and a WHIP below 1.0.  The Beanballers rank in the middle of almost every significant statistical category, both hitting and pitching.  A very average team, you could say, to this point.

Cougars (39-42, 6th place, 9 GB) – At one point, it was the Cougars who were the league’s biggest surprise.  But they have fallen on hard times of late, having lost eight straight and 17 out of 22.  They do still lead the league in home runs, but that lead has been shrinking as well.  Gleyber Torres has been their best player.  He leads the way among seven players with double digit home runs.  But it has been an all-or-nothing season for many of their hitters, including Kris Bryant who has a disappointing .211 average to go along with 16 bombs.  The pitching staff has been the bigger problem lately.  Blake Snell has been great (7-3, 2.62 ERA), but has gotten little help.  Sonny Gray did win Pitcher of the Month in May though.  Closer Nick Anderson is the only pitcher besides Snell with an ERA under 4.

Darkhorses (37-44, 7th place-T, 11 GB) – The Darkhorses, on the other hand, have been trending up.  They got off to a disappointing start and found themselves in last place at times in April and May.  But they have now won six of their last seven series as the offense has sparked the improvement.  Eight of their nine regular starters have reached double digit home runs.  While no player has numbers that pop out, it has been a solid group effort.  Alex Bregman has 17 home runs and Brandon Lowe leads the team in WAR (2.2).  If they can get Christian Yelich back on track (.237, 1.2 WAR), this offense could be very dangerous in the second half.  The pitching staff, particularly the rotation, has been disappointing.  All of the starters, besides Patrick Corbin, have ERAs north of 5.0.  That includes Jacob deGrom, who shockingly has an ERA of 5.05.  Perhaps he has been a tad unlucky though as his FIP sits at 4.23.  The Darkhorses do not appear to be a very good defensive team, which probably isn’t helping those pitching numbers.

Komodos (37-44, 7th place-T, 11 GB) – It has been a rough season for the Komodos offense.  They rank dead last in almost every offensive category.  They are averaging a half run per game fewer than the next worst team.  Cody Bellinger has pretty much been the lone offensive bright spot, but even he might be considered a slight disappointment with just 11 homers for a player who you might expect to be a MVP candidate.  Fortunately for the Komodos, the pitching staff has been solid, allowing them to stay afloat.  Jose Quintana has been their ace with a 3.31 ERA.  Anibal Sanchez has surprisingly strong numbers too, leading the team with nine wins.  The bullpen has been very good as well.

Moonshiners (36-45, 9th place, 12 GB) – The Moonshiners are just now starting to climb out of the hole that their pitching staff put them into early on this season.  The stats don’t paint a pretty picture here as the Moonshiners rank ninth in runs scored and last in runs allowed.  But things have been getting a little better.  The 5.05 team ERA is pretty bad, but is better than it was a couple weeks ago.  The rotation has been a big problem.  40% of it consists of pitchers with ERAs over 6.00.  Opening Day starter Charlie Morton had arguably been the worst pitcher in the league until a few weeks ago.  Now he has some competition with a few of his teammates.  On a positive note, Kyle Hendricks has been solid and steady.  This is probably the league’s worst defensive team, which also hurts the pitching numbers and the WAR totals for the hitters.  The team leader in WAR among position players is Rafael Devers at 1.6.

Jackalope (34-47, 10th place, 14 GB) – Easy to say when referring to the last place team, but the Jackalope have been the biggest disappointment so far.  While maybe not one of the favorites, on paper, this looked like it could be a playoff team.  To be fair, they have been a bit unlucky with their record falling four games below the pythag mark.  But they just haven’t been consistent enough on the mound or at the plate.  That’s not to say it has all been bad though.  Ronald Acuna has been one of the best players in the league, on pace to challenge the 30/30 mark with 14 home runs and 15 steals.  Giancarlo Stanton is tied for the league lead with 20 home runs.  None of their pitchers have stood out though and Gerrit Cole has been notably disappointing with just five wins and a 4.91 ERA.  It has been a brutal June for the Jackalope as they are currently on a five game skid and have a 3-16 record in the month.  They’ll need to get that turned around soon to get back into the playoff hunt.

We’ll get the second half of the season started tonight.  We’re on pace to wrap up right around the time the MLB season could get started, under the most optimistic forecasts as of now, in early July.  But I can easily adjust the pace of the sims as the schedule dictates.  I hope you are all staying safe and healthy.  All the best to you.  And I hope you are enjoying this small distraction.

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First off, I hope you and your families are all doing well during these difficult times. The COVID-19 pandemic has no doubt affected us all, changing the way we go about our daily lives. While there are far more important things to worry about right now, the cessation of all sports has left a pretty gaping hole in my daily routine. That’s exacerbated by the fact that I suddenly have a whole lot of free time on my hands. So I’ve come up with a plan to try and help fill that void.

This Thursday was supposed to be MLB Opening Day and the start of our league’s season. Since that has been delayed indefinitely, I have a plan to occupy some of that time before baseball returns. I am going to set up and simulate two separate seasons within the Out of the Park Baseball game. For those of you unfamiliar with OOTP, it is probably the best baseball simulation game ever created. I can’t even begin to describe all of the features and customization options available in the game, so I’ll recommend checking out their website if you are interested in learning more.  The latest version of the game was just released a few days ago.  I’ve been playing it practically non-stop since.  While I have bought every version of the game the past 15 years or so, I’ve been a very casual player the past decade, usually not purchasing the game until it is time to set up the DTBL All-Star Game each summer.  But this year will be much different.  I’ve already gotten my money’s worth, and then some.  Enough of this infomercial for OOTP though.  Let’s get to my plan.

As I stated above, I am going to simulate two separate seasons within OOTP.  One is going to be a simulation of a real life MLB universe and the second will be configured for the DTBL.  I am inviting all of you to participate in the DTBL sim, if you so desire.  But first, let me describe the MLB sim.

I am going to create a full MLB universe in OOTP, including all 30 MLB teams and their full minor league affiliates.  This is one of the default out-of-the-box options in OOTP.  It has a full roster set of real players with ratings that reflect their skills to an incredibly accurate degree.  I will keep pretty much all of the default settings in the game, which mimic MLB rules and regulations.  To give myself a little more to do, I am going to take full control of the White Sox organization while the other 29 teams will be AI controlled.  There will be trades, injuries, suspensions, promotions, demotions… you name it.  I will sim one day at a time, creating results for all of the games that were originally scheduled to occur on the given day.  So that means on Thursday, I will sim the games that were supposed to happen on MLB Opening Day.  I will then upload the results to our website so you can peruse all the reports, check out box scores, game logs, transaction logs, or whatever else might be of interest to you.  Curious how your favorite team and players did on a given day?  It will all be there.  I intend to continue this daily routine up until whenever the real MLB season begins.  At that time, I may continue the league at my own leisure, but will stop publicly reporting the results.

The second sim is probably going to be of more interest to you.  I am going to create a DTBL game that is going to have each of our ten teams, more or less with our actual rosters.  The teams will have a full 162 game schedule in which they play the other nine teams 18 times each.  At the conclusion of the regular season, the top four teams will make the playoffs and play best-of-7 Semi-Finals before a best-of-7 World Series.  Normally, I’d prefer to limit the post-season to just two teams in a ten team league.  But since this is just for fun, I might as well keep more teams involved as long as possible.  And there is no actual prize for the simulation champion.

I’ve already done most of the setup for this league.  I created the teams and set up an initial draft to place the players on the correct teams.  As soon as our real draft wraps up, I will complete this process.  Rosters are going to be 32 players:  a 26 man active roster and a six player reserve roster.  The reason why I decided to go beyond the 28 players that each of us will have at the conclusion of the real draft is because most teams are going to need more pitchers to fill a regular staff.  My assumption is that most teams will go with a 13 pitcher staff, which is probably a couple more pitchers than most of you will have at the conclusion of our draft.  Once the 28 players have been assigned to their proper teams, I’m going to turn on auto-draft and let the AI fill out the rest.  I will create a backup before doing this though in case the AI doesn’t pick mostly pitchers as I expect.  In that case, I’ll come up with some other mechanism to fill the rosters.

I will begin simming the games for this league on Thursday as well.  However, I intend to sim two days off the schedule at a time, as opposed to just one in the MLB sim.  Once a firm MLB Opening Day has been set, I’ll adjust this schedule so that the season is completed before Opening Day.  There will be a few other differences in the DTBL sim.  Injuries will be disabled.  So yes, Chris Sale and Luis Severino will be good-to-go for this season.  I will disable AI roster moves, including trades, signings, promotions and demotions.  Essentially, the team rosters will remain static throughout the season, unless you decide to make changes to your own roster.

Yes, you will have an opportunity to participate, if you so desire.  First of all, if any of you happen to have OOTP or are thinking about purchasing it, please let me know ASAP.  I can configure the game to make this an online league, which would allow you to take full control of your roster, including every minute detail right down to in-game strategy.  I haven’t participated in an OOTP online league in a very long time and have never run one myself, so I’ll need to research this a bit, which is why I’d appreciate a quick response if you want to participate in this manner.  But you do not need OOTP to be a part of this sim.  At any time throughout the season, you can email me with changes you would like made to your roster:  signing free agents, promoting to/from the reserve roster, changes to lineups/depth charts/pitching staff roles.  The degree to which you wish to participate is completely up to you.  In fact, if you just want to let the AI handle it all, that will be just fine.  To reiterate though, I will be disabling AI roster moves.  So if you choose not to participate, the 26 player roster that you begin the season with will remain in tact for the duration of the season.  No roster moves made throughout this process will have any impact on your real DTBL roster.

My current plan is to post the results of both sims to the website around 9 p.m. EDT each evening.  There will be links to the main page for each league on the front page of this website.  Those URLs shouldn’t change, so feel free to bookmark them and check them whenever you wish.  I will also be tweeting links (@DTBL_Kevin) when the pages have been updated and perhaps occasionally chiming in with some of the highlights, using hashtag #DTBL2020Sim.  Maybe I’ll even write an occasional blog post to recap the action, if I’m really bored.

This project has given me something to look forward to.  It is not much of a replacement for real baseball games, but it will suffice for now.  Let’s play ball!