Archive for March, 2023

2023 Season Preview: Part II

Wednesday, March 29th, 2023

Embed from Getty Images
Happy Opening Day Eve!  Let’s get one more part of the 2023 season preview out of the way before the first pitch of the season.  The remaining parts will probably have to wait until at least Friday as I will be attending the Braves/Nats opener tomorrow afternoon and will likely be watching baseball all evening as well.

Tonight, we’re going to cover two more teams.  It is interesting that these two particular teams fall into this section of the preview series together because, with the exception of the champion Moonshiners, these were probably 2022′s two most pleasant surprises.  So a fall down to the seventh and eighth places where these projections have them would be a bit disappointing.  At the same time, it also sets them up to be pleasant surprises again this season if they were to contend for the title again.  Not to spoil what’s to come later this week, but these two teams are within 10 projected standings points of every team but one.  So we’re already looking at teams that could very conceivably be in the championship hunt.  Here are the teams projected to finish in seventh and eight place in 2023.

 

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases - 1st (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (2nd)
  • Wins – 7th (5th)
  • Saves - 4th (6th)
  • Strike Outs - 9th (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (5th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (2nd)
  • Total Points – 8th (3rd)

Summary:

The first thing that sticks out when looking at the Demigods projections is how wildly different the rankings are compared to their ’22 finish in a wide variety of categories.  Last year, the Demigods rode an elite power pitching staff to the second most pitching points in the league.  This year, they are projected to be near the bottom in their best pitching categories from last year (ERA, WHIP, Ks).  Meanwhile, they were a below average team in both power and speed on offense a year ago, but are now projected near the top in home runs and first place in stolen bases.  All of this would make sense if they underwent a massive roster retooling in the offseason and draft, but that didn’t really happen.  Although, the return of Fernando Tatis Jr from injury and suspension will undoubtedly give their offense a boost.  Tatis returns to an infield that remains quite potent with Freddie Freeman and Francisco Lindor.  They will be without Jose Altuve for the first quarter of the season though after he broke his thumb getting hit by a pitch in the WBC.  First round draft pick Corbin Carroll should give a nice boost to an outfield that could use it.  His speed alone does give some credence to the stolen base ranking surge.  If the Demigods could ever get a full season out of Byron Buxton, that could be a game changer.  These projections do have him as their top outfield producer.  The pitching staff is essentially unchanged from last year, at least among the most important guys, making the fall in projected points quite peculiar.  The rotation brings back Max Fried, Aaron Nola, Joe Musgrove, Zac Gallen and Robbie Ray, all of whom had good seasons a year ago and are projected to be well above average again this year.  They even added Kyle Wright to supplement this core.  As long as most of these guys stay healthy, I do not see them falling near the bottom of the league in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.  The bullpen is decent, but perhaps in a precarious spot with a couple closers on bad teams in David Bednar and Kyle Finnegan.  I think there is good reason for the Demigods to be optimistic following their third place finish a year ago, despite these projections.  This is a solid roster top to bottom.

 

Kat’s Komodos

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In - 2nd (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases - 6th (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (9th)
  • Wins - 1st (4th)
  • Saves - 9th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th-T (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (6th-T)
  • Total Points – 7th (4th)

Summary:

The Komodos have a pretty exciting young core of hitters returning this season.  Much like the Demigods pitching staff, the Komodos have basically the same offense as last year.  Jose Ramirez remains one of the most dependable stars in the game and could be a legit 30/30 threat this season with the expected increase in steals across the league.  With a full season under his belt, Wander Franco could be on the verge of breaking into the upper stratosphere of players in ’23.  He is paired with another consistently solid shortstop in Corey Seager.  Meanwhile, Willy Adames has quietly become a force at that position as well.  The newcomer to the infield is Thairo Estrada, who has a chance to become an elite power/speed guy too.  The Komodos probably have the best outfield of any team covered so far, led by Yordan Alvarez.  The duo of Luis Robert and Starling Marte are coming off injury plagued seasons, but both remain elite talents when healthy.  If Cody Bellinger were to return to his old form, this would be a tough outfield to beat.  The pitching staff has some question marks going into the season, but it is worth noting these projections already take into account that Walker Buehler is likely to miss the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Luckily for the Komodos, their two breakout pitching stars from a year ago, Shane McClanahan and Framber Valdez are back for more this season.  The Komodos pitching staff will probably go as the Astros go, because after McClanahan, their top three hurlers all play in Houston:  Valdez, Luis Garcia and first round pick Cristian Javier.  I can think of worse teams to be saturated with than the defending World Series champs.  It is hard to project what the Komodos will get from their relievers.  Devin Williams is the only sure thing closer on the roster.  Jhoan Duran and Rafael Montero (another Astro) have nasty enough stuff to help ERA, WHIP and strikeout totals even if they don’t get many saves.  The Komodos will look to build off of their first ever top half finish a year ago.

 

Posted in Demigods, Komodos | No Comments »

2023 Season Preview: Part I

Tuesday, March 28th, 2023

Embed from Getty Images
We’re just a couple days away from the start of the 2023 DTBL season, so it is probably about time I kick off the season preview series.  At risk of undermining this whole process, I feel obligated to highlight just how poor of a job the 2022 preview series did of prognosticating what was to come.  The 2022 projections had the Moonshiners finishing in ninth place.  They won the league.  They had the Mavericks edging out the Darkhorses for the league title.  Those teams finished ninth and eighth respectively.  After such a poor showing, I considered altering my methodology for this season.  However, I ultimately decided against it because I’m not sure it would be worth the effort to make tweaks that may or may not actually help.  This is really just an exercise to highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses of each team entering the season.  It couldn’t be clearer that almost any team could win this league in any given season if things go there way.

So yeah, we’re keeping the process the same for 2023.  Just a couple days prior to the start of the draft, I grabbed the FanGraphs Depth Chart projections for this season.  As a reminder, FanGraphs Depth Chart uses two other projection systems:  ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts the numbers based on expected playing time for each MLB team.  So what I do is take those Depth Charts projections for each player and add them to the appropriate team as the draft progresses.  At the conclusion of the draft, I tally up the numbers for each team and scale them to 8,285 plate appearances and 1,220 innings pitched.  All 28 players who are on each team’s roster at the conclusion of the draft are included, regardless of position distribution or expected major/minor slot distributions.  I don’t want to be in the business of projecting how teams are going to set their lineups.  That said, including stats for all 28 players who will occupy just 23 slots could positively or negatively impact certain teams depending on how those extra spots are distributed.  Just keep that in mind as we go along.  Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that these projections were from early March.  So major injuries that have occurred since then, like Edwin Diaz and Rhys Hoskins, are not reflected in these numbers even though those guys aren’t expected to play this season.  I’ll point out these situations again in the individual team write-ups.  Finally, at the conclusion of this series, I’ll post the full projected standings and team stat totals.

We start with the two teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.  Interestingly, no teams are projected for fewer than 43 points.  So it wouldn’t take too much overachieving on these numbers for these squads to be in the hunt.  And again, keep in mind the Moonshiners were part of this section last year.

 

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (8th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (6th)
  • Wins – 5th (2nd)
  • Saves – 6th (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th-T (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (3rd)
  • Total Points – 10th (6th)

Summary:

2022 was a disappointing season for the Cougars offense.  Ultimately, it was what kept them from contending for the title because the pitching staff was very good.  These projections show a slight improvement to the offense, but the pitching numbers have dropped to the middle of the pack.  Most of the players expected to fill everyday lineup spots are solid contributors.  But there is a lack of eye-popping projections on the offensive side of things.  Cedric Mullins is the only Cougars hitter with a projected batting PAR over 4.  Next closest is newcomer Jake McCarthy who could be a sneaky great stolen base machine if given enough playing time.  First round pick Bryan Reynolds will join them to lead the way in the outfield.  Salvador Perez remains one of the best offensive catchers in the game and is joined by rookie Shea Langeliers to make an intriguing catching duo.  The infield lacks star power, but has a good bounce back candidate in Ketel Marte and Jose Abreu moving to the cozy confines of Houston should get his power numbers back to normal.  Perhaps what the Cougars need the most is a full, healthy season from Kris Bryant to see exactly what he can do in the thin air of Denver.  The pitching staff is once again led by Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon, the latter of whom will need to get and then stay healthy to match his great ’22 numbers.  A return to form for Lucas Giolito would go a long way towards keeping the Cougars among the league’s top pitching staffs.  The bullpen should be decent with Ryan Pressly and Scott Barlow firmly entrenched as closers and Seranthony Dominguez, Kendall Graveman and Evan Phillips in the mix for saves and other high leverage work as well.  The Cougars have been stuck in the middle of the standings for the past half decade.  Falling to last place is certainly not how they want to end that streak.

 

Dan’s Diamond Dogs

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 4th (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases - 7th (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (7th)
  • Wins – 10th (8th-T)
  • Saves - 1st (7th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th-T (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
  • Total Points – 9th (10th)

Summary:

I’m not sure I would call a last place finish a success, but the Diamond Dogs did exceed their ’22 projection by a point and weren’t nearly as far behind the pack as expected in their inaugural season.  One could argue positioning themselves to draft Julio Rodriguez with the first pick in the draft was not the worst thing in the world either.  Rodriguez joins an offense that is as star studded as almost any team in the league.  The rest of those stars are on the infield though.  The outfield was a bit barren before Rodriguez’s arrival.  His new Mariners teammate Teoscar Hernandez is the next best of the bunch.  The infield is loaded, particularly on the left side.  The shortstop trio of Trea Turner, Bo Bichette and Oneil Cruz is an embarrassment of riches.  Nolan Arenado at third base is a MVP candidate in his own right.  Gleyber Torres will be asked to fill in for Brendan Rodgers who will miss a good chunk of the season.  Behind the dish, Travis d’Arnaud and Danny Jansen are both above average players, but are stuck in time shares with other good catchers for their respective MLB clubs.  In total, the Dogs should have no trouble exceeding their batting point total from last season.  The pitching staff is a bit of a work in progress as they wait for Shane Baz and John Means to return from Tommy John surgery.  Reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara is head and shoulders above the rest of the staff.  Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon and Charlie Morton give them some steady veteran arms to hold things together though.  The bullpen is probably the strength of the team heading into the season, which is interesting considering they finished near the bottom in saves a year ago.  Holdover Josh Hader is joined by second round pick Ryan Helsley and a couple later round picks in Daniel Bard and Jose Leclerc, all of whom are currently projected to lead their teams in saves.  Slowly but surely, the Diamond Dogs are building a solid team.  Ideally, they will take a step forward this season and not pick first in the draft again next year.

Posted in Cougars, Diamond Dogs | No Comments »

Back To Basics

Tuesday, March 28th, 2023

Embed from Getty Images
After having written a grand total of just four blog posts in the past eight months, I am aiming to do four or five this week alone.  Most of them will make up our annual DTBL season preview series.  However, before I get to that, I want to do a quick review of the recently completed draft.  The 2022 draft was rather unusual with a majority of the first round picks being pitchers.  This year, things were back to normal.  The first round was comprised of mostly young hitters.  While the beginning of the 2023 DTBL draft was rather predictable, it was also quite interesting.

The draft kicked off with the Diamond Dogs making the first  pick for the second consecutive season.  Last year, they went a bit off the board in selecting pitcher Shane Baz, a move which backfired quickly as he hurt his elbow soon after the draft and eventually had Tommy John surgery.  This year, the Dogs played it more conventionally, selecting the clear best available player in the draft in outfielder Julio Rodriguez.  Not only was Rodriguez the consensus best available player in this draft, I’ve seen dynasty rankings that have him #1 among *all* MLB players heading into this season.  He broke into the big leagues with a 28 home run and 25 stolen base season, earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.  It has been quite some time since a player had such a dominant rookie season in both of those categories.  He has true five category star potential and should be a cornerstone for the Diamond Dogs franchise for years to come.

Speaking of guys with elite power and speed talent, the Mavericks selected shortstop Bobby Witt Jr with the second pick.  Witt also joined the rookie 20/20 fraternity with 20 home runs and 30 steals.  The stolen base aspect of his game will give the Mavericks the only thing they were missing from their extremely potent offense.  Witt is of course the son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, who had a one season stint in the DTBL with the Metros in 1997.

The first pitcher selected was Spencer Strider by the Darkhorses at #3.  Strider was an under the radar prospect who made his presence felt immediately at the big league level.  He struck out 202 hitters in just 131 innings pitched, while posting a 2.67 ERA and a sub 1.0 WHIP.  Like Rodriguez being the first hitter taken, there was little doubt that Strider would be the first pitcher off the board.

Strider’s Braves teammate, outfielder Michael Harris II was the fourth pick, taken by the Jackalope.  Harris is yet another huge power and speed contributor.  He hit 19 home runs with 20 steals while posting a .297 average.  In almost any other year, he would have been the best five category player available.  Perhaps playing in a loaded Braves lineup does give him the best immediate outlook among these top hitters though.

The first non-DTBL rookie selected was outfielder Bryan Reynolds.  The Cougars picked him up in the fifth slot.  Reynolds was a surprising drop by the Komodos this winter, but the Cougars were happy to add him to their roster.  He could be an especially nice addition if the Pirates were to trade him to a team that would offer more lineup protection.

It is almost hard to believe, but prior to this year there had not been a catcher selected in the first round of the draft since 2017 (Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras).  The Choppers ended that drought by choosing Adley Rutschman at #6.  Rutschman had been the #1 prospect in baseball heading into last season according to many publications, and one of the most highly touted catching prospects in modern history.  He had a very good rookie campaign and should give the Choppers a leg up on most of the league at an extremely shallow position.

The second and final pitcher of the first round was Cristian Javier, selected by the Komodos with the seventh pick.  Javier had a decent stint with the Jackalope back in 2021, but fell off the league roster last year as the Astros kept shuffling him between the rotation and bullpen.  He established himself as an extremely valuable starter last season though, highlighted by his dominant performance in the Astros combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

The next two picks are the consensus top two prospects in baseball heading into this season, as the others drafted ahead of them have already exhausted their MLB rookie eligibility.  The Demigods took speedy outfielder Corbin Carroll with the eighth pick.  Carroll stole 33 bases across three levels last season.  Oh, he also has pop.  He hit 28 home runs in his ’22 minor and major league season.

Third baseman Gunnar Henderson went to the Kings in the ninth slot.  Corner infield wasn’t exactly a position of need for the Kings going into the draft, but they are certainly happy to have Henderson now with Rhys Hoskins out for the year.  Henderson doesn’t have quite the same speed as the other hitters picked ahead of him, but he can run a bit and certainly has big league raw power.

Finally, the defending champion Moonshiners selected catcher MJ Melendez with the last pick of the first round.  Melendez filled in admirably behind the plate for the Royals when Salvador Perez got hurt last summer.  This year, he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield, but should catch often enough to maintain catcher eligibility.  His bat should make him an extremely valuable commodity as long as that remains the case.

To pull back the curtain a bit on my own draft process, this wound up being as predictable of a first round as I can recall.  Since I had the ninth pick, I had exactly nine guys who I had settled on as potential selections.  As it turns out, only Henderson remained from that list when my pick came up, which made my decision pretty easy.  While I didn’t map out exactly which team I expected to take which player, not one of the first round selections was even remotely surprising to me.

Now it is time to dive into the season preview.  I’m actually hoping to get the first part out later tonight, or tomorrow at the latest.  So be on the lookout for that!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Diamond Dogs, Draft, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »