Moonshiners first baseman Prince Fielder
For most of the month of September, as many as five teams have been within a couple points of first place, setting up the potential for one of the craziest finishes in league history. I wish I had taken the time to write this article a few days ago when all five of the contenders were within two points of each other. In the last couple days, the gap has widened a bit. But the fluctuation in those couple days just goes to show you how quickly things could change again. With less than a week to go in the 2012 DTBL season, the league title isn’t even close to being decided.
Here is a team-by-team overview of the five contenders, looking at the state of each team and what needs to happen for them to finish on top.
Jackalope
Although at no point this season have the defending champions held a commanding lead, I really felt they were the team to beat in the late summer. They were showing signs of the same form that led them to the title last year. But their offense has been a huge disappointment most of the season, and especially lately. Ryan Braun has been trying to carry the load, but he has had virtually no help. The injury to Giancarlo Stanton couldn’t have come at a worse time, although he is back in the lineup tonight. The Jackalope’s nine point deficit may be too much to make up in such a short period of time, especially since the offense has shown no signs of life. It would seem likely that we will have a new champion in 2012, but don’t count the Jackalope out just yet.
Mavericks
The surprise team of the year appears to be running out of gas. It is a pretty notable accomplishment for them to have remained in the race this long. Due to exhausting all of their free agent signings well over a month ago, they have been unable to field replacements for players who have been injured/shelved in recent weeks. Prior to Clayton Kershaw’s return earlier this week, the Mavericks were stuck with just three healthy/active starting pitchers. The Stephen Strasburg shutdown was expected, but the Johan Santana and Kershaw injuries were not. Perhaps their strategy of burning through their free agent signings could be questioned, but I think the Mavericks figured their rebuilding plan was at least a year ahead of schedule, so they were playing with house money. This will be a tough team to beat in 2013.
Naturals
Many of the things stated in the Jackalope section also apply here. The Naturals have remained in the title chase despite a slightly disappointing offense. Miguel Cabrera and Andrew McCutchen have been doing their part, but the Naturals still find themselves in the middle of the pack in batting points. The good news is they are situated in striking distance of their nearest competitor in a whole bunch of categories. They have a decent shot at picking up as many as three points in home runs alone. In fact, I believe they have the best chance of anyone to catch the Moonshiners. Their pitching staff is the best in the league right now. If the Moonshiners slip up at all, expect the Naturals to be right there on the final day of the season.
Kings
The second half turnaround of the Kings pitching staff has been extremely impressive and season saving. Burried in 9th place in ERA most of the season, their deficit appeared to be too much to make up. But the Tigers’ duo of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer has propelled them up to a more respectable spot. However, the Kings title hopes may have been dashed when news came out that Scherzer would miss his start this weekend and may not pitch again in the regular season. Kings management learned of this just hours after the final transactions of the year had been processed. So if Anibal Sanchez winds up throwing another gem this weekend, the failure to keep him in the lineup could be the dagger to the Kings. The other problem is that they have pretty much reached their point ceiling. Most likely, the only way they will make up the current 3 1/2 point deficit is if the Moonshiners fall back a bit.
Moonshiners
Usually, a team would feel pretty good about a 3 1/2 point lead with less than a week to go. But considering the Moonshiners weren’t even in first place earlier this week, obviously a lot can happen in just a couple days. Unlike the other four title contenders, the Moonshiners don’t have an obvious weakness. They are the only team in the league with 30+ batting and pitching points. In fact, they are over 35 in both. It’s pretty simple for the Moonshiners. All they need to do is hold serve. No other team is going to reach the mid-70′s point mark. So as long as they don’t start dropping points, they will win their first DTBL title. However, that’s not exactly a sure thing. They are in danger of losing points in home runs, WHIP, wins, strike outs and possibly even batting average. The fat lady hasn’t even started warming up her vocal chords.