Archive for November, 2016

Betts is Best

Friday, November 25th, 2016


2016 was a year of offensive resurgence. There were over 3,000 home runs hit in the DTBL, with the highest league wide total since 2001, which was the heart of the steroid era. The cumulative batting PAR (which will be adjusted this winter) reached an all-time high for years I’ve calculated (2009-present). Many players contributed to this surge, but nobody more so than Kings outfiedier Mookie Betts. The second year player led the Kings to another DTBL Championship. In a surprisingly decisive vote, Betts has won the 2016 DTBL Most Valuable Player award.

Betts led his championship squad in almost every offensive category. Only his 31 home runs weren’t enough to lead the Kings. He hit .318 with 113 RBI, 122 runs and 26 stolen bases. He was a true five category performer. His run total was second in the league, just one behind Mike Trout. He finished on the leaderboard in batting average, RBI and stolen bases as well. He edged out Trout for highest batting PAR, finishing at 10.9. That is the highest total calculated to date (again, PAR numbers only go back as far as 2009), although this will likely be recalculated down a bit this winter. But no matter how you slice it, Betts had one of the best seasons in recent DTBL history.

The Kings selected Betts with the fifth pick in the 2015 Draft. That was a strong draft class, but so far, Betts appears to be the cream of the crop, at least among offensive players. He had a solid rookie campaign, accumulating 18 home runs and stolen bases and finished eighth in the ROY vote a year ago. But he made huge strides this season in every category. In his two year career, he is a .305 hitter with 49 home runs and 44 stolen bases.

If you are surprised that Betts won this award despite finishing behind Trout in the AL MVP vote, the explanation is pretty simple. Trout’s advantage over Betts in that vote was primarily due to skills that don’t apply to fantasy baseball, particularly plate discipline and position scarcity (CF vs. RF). Both are elite five tool players, however.

In a bit of a surprise, this vote was not particularly close. Betts received nine of the ten first place votes, along with a third, for a total of 95 points. The Mavericks’ Trout received a single first place vote and was on all ten ballots, but those votes were scattered. He finished with 59 points, which was actually closer to third and fourth place than first. In addition to Betts and Trout, Demigods second baseman Jose Altuve was also on all ten ballots. Altuve looked like the favorite for this award at times this season, but faded a bit down the stretch. He came in third place with 38 points. Right behind him is Naturals third baseman Nolan Arenado who accumulated 35 points. Arenado lacked the stolen bases of the three who finished ahead of him, but made up for it with power. Finishing fifth is the NL MVP and DTBL Rookie of the Year, Cougars third baseman Kris Bryant. Bryant’s MVP profile wasn’t quite as strong in fantasy as it was in real baseball, which explains him finishing well behind four others.

Click here to view the full MVP voting results.

One final tidbit: this is the second straight year that both the MVP and Cy Young awards have been won by members of the championship team. It is not a surprise that the best performers were members of the best teams. But this year, you can definitely point to the contributions of Betts and Max Scherzer as primary factors in the Kings winning the title.

There will be more content this off-season, but in the meantime, enjoy the rest of Thanksgiving weekend and have a great winter!

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Cy Young to the Max

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2016


The Kings did not have a very strong pitching staff, top to bottom. Yet they finished with an impressive 37.5 pitching points on their way to a DTBL Championship. It took a couple pitchers having elite seasons for them to reach that mark. Perhaps more so than any other player, Max Scherzer was hugely responsible for the Kings winning their sixth league title. In a unanimous decision, Scherzer is the 2016 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

Scherzer was the DTBL’s lone 20 game winner. He also led the league in strikeouts with a career high 284. In fact, that total was 33 more than any other pitcher. That strikeout edge was the primary reason why he also led the league in pitching PAR at 13.2. His 2.96 ERA and 0.968 WHIP were also among the top five in the league. In a season that saw the era of pitching domination come to an abrupt end, Scherzer continued to baffle hitters.

The Kings acquired Scherzer in a trade from the Jackalope back in 2010. Six years later, that trade continues to pay major dividends. Not coincidentally, his two best seasons have come during Kings championship campaigns. His 2016 numbers were nearly identical to the numbers he posted in 2013, when he finished second in the Cy Young vote. He won 21 games in ’13 with a slightly lower ERA compared to this year. However, his ’16 WHIP and strikeout numbers were better. For his career, he has won 111 games (all but two coming as a member of the Kings) with an impressive 3.27 ERA and 1,546 strikeouts. This is Scherzer’s first Cy Young award. As mentioned, he finished second in the 2013 vote and came in fourth place a year ago.

Although there were several other pitchers who had great seasons, Scherzer was the clear choice for this award. He received all ten first place votes. After him, there were a slew of pitchers who received strong consideration and finished very close to one another in the vote. Cougars lefty Madison Bumgarner wound up finishing second, despite not appearing on two ballots. He garnered three second place votes and 42 total points. Besides Scherzer, the only other pitcher to appear on every ballot was the Choppers’ Jon Lester. Lester only received two second place votes though, causing Bumgarner to finish two points higher. Yet another southpaw finished fourth, Mavericks ace Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw was a difficult case for voters to consider because he missed significant time due to a back injury. Yet he still wound up finishing second in pitching PAR and had unbelievable numbers across the board. This almost certainly would have been his third Cy Young win had he stayed healthy. It was his sixth straight season finishing in the top four of the vote, but his lowest finish since not receiving votes in 2010. Rounding out the top five is another key piece of the Kings championship team, veteran Justin Verlander. I can’t wait to see what kind of backlash we receive from Kate Upton for voting Verlander fifth. It was also a strong year for relief pitchers, but it continues to be difficult for them to get much consideration for this award. Kenley Jansen did receive a second and third place vote, however.

Click here to view the full voting results.

There wasn’t a whole lot of drama with the Cy Young award, but the Most Valuable Player race figures to be much more competitive. Check back on Friday to find out who will be the 2016 DTBL MVP.

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Bryant is Best of Deep Class

Monday, November 21st, 2016


Leading up to the March draft, the incoming 2016 rookie class was dubbed as one of the strongest and deepest in league history. A bunch of young phenoms made their MLB debuts in 2015 and were therefore part of a loaded 2016 DTBL Draft class. Not surprisingly, those rookies didn’t disappoint. Several of the first year players not only made immediate impacts for their teams, but were also among the top players in the league. The best early performers of that class included several of the first players taken in the draft, as well as a few later surprises. The top two rookies were teammates on the World Champion Cubs. In a relatively close vote, the 2016 DTBL Rookie of the Year is Cougars third baseman Kris Bryant.

Just last week, Bryant won the NL MVP award a year after winning NL Rookie of the Year. In the DTBL, he will be a candidate to win both in his debut season. He finished eighth in the league in home runs (39) and fourth in runs scored (121). His 102 runs batted in and .292 batting average were quite solid numbers as well. He also stole eight bases, cementing his place as one of the game’s best all-around players already. Bryant topped all rookies with an 8.2 PAR and was easily the best offensive player on the Cougars roster.

Bryant was clearly one of the most coveted players in this year’s draft. The Cougars were happy to grab him with the second pick in that draft, following the Kings selection of Carlos Correa. Unfortunately for the Cougars, Byrant’s contributions weren’t enough to save them from last place, so they ought to be able to add another key piece to their foundation with the first pick next year. If they hit another home run like they did with Bryant, the future will be bright. The 24 year old Bryant figures to be an offensive star for a very long time to come. This ends a string of three consecutive pitchers winning ROY. The last hitter to win the award, a guy named Mike Trout.

It basically turned into a two man race for this award between Bryant and his Cubs teammate, Kyle Hendricks. Bryant received seven of the ten first place votes, plus two seconds and a third for a total of 89 points. Hendricks received the other three first place votes and finished with 75 points. Of all the rookies who had great seasons, Hendricks had to have been the biggest surprise. All the Moonshiners 10th round pick did was lead the league in ERA and WHIP and should be a strong contender for the Cy Young award. The other top five vote-getters were all first round selections. Finishing third was Naturals pitcher Noah Syndergaard. He received a bulk of the third place votes and, like Bryant and Hendricks, appeared on all ten ballots. He accumulated 48 points. Next came another early draft pick who lived up to the hype, Gators shortstop Corey Seager. Interestingly, the top four finishers for this award each are members of different teams that finished in the bottom half of the standings, so they provide some hope for the future for their respective teams. Rounding out the top five is yet another early draft pick, Demigods shortstop Francisco Lindor. So for those of you scoring at home, that’s four of the top six picks in the draft finishing in the top five of the Rookie of the Year vote. I think it is also worth mentioning the sixth place finisher, Naturals second baseman Trea Turner, who made a huge impact in just one half a season’s worth of action.

Click here to view the full voting results.

Next up on the awards docket is the Cy Young award, which will should be announced on Wednesday.

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Reviewing the Rest

Saturday, November 12th, 2016


For the six teams who were not in the running for the DTBL Championship in the final weeks of the season, 2016 was mostly a disappointment. However, a few of these teams did show promise and had their moments when they too appeared to be among the better teams in the league. Unlike last year though, there were some teams that finished so far behind the leaders that they appear to have a huge rebuilding task ahead of them. Here is a brief summary of the 2016 seasons for the six non-contenders.

A fifth place finish for the Darkhorses is probably a little disappointing considering they finished in third a year ago and have one of the most exciting young corps of players in the league. But they actually came closer to winning it all this year than last. They had the best offense in the league, leading the way with 40.5 batting points. Edwin Encarnacion, Daniel Murphy and Xander Bogaerts were the top offensive stars, but many others emerged this season like George Springer, Christian Yelich and Justin Turner. Unfortunately for them, their pitching kept them from being a true title contender. Rick Porcello became a surprise staff ace and Carlos Martinez rewarded them for their faith in making him a first round draft pick. But they didn’t have a lot of pitching depth. If they can shore up this staff with one or two more solid hurlers, they will be a scary team next year.

For much of the year, this looked like it was going to be one of the worst seasons in Naturals franchise history. They were toiling near the bottom of the standings as late into the season as early September. But a late rally pushed them up to a sixth place finish, the same spot they settled for a year ago. Part of the reason for that surge was a resurgence of two of their veteran stars: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. Another was the incredible performance by rookie Trea Turner, who nearly cracked the PAR leaderboard despite spending half the year in the minors. But the star of the team from start to finish was Nolan Arenado who led the league in RBI and was near the top in home runs and runs as well. Despite a pedestrian season overall, the Naturals may come away as the big winners from the 2016 Draft. In addition to Turner, who was an enormous steal in the eighth round, they also solidified their pitching staff for years to come with their first round selection of Noah Syndergaard. He was easily their best pitcher this season. The Naturals remain one of the league’s most talented teams, even if the results haven’t been there the past two years.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Moonshiners finished in seventh place. Yes, for the fourth consecutive year, they finished the season in the seven hole. It is obviously not the place they want to be. This year, it was a very weak offense that kept them from moving on up. They finished with just seven batting points and were dead last in every offensive category except for home runs. Really, their entire offense was carried by their two star second basemen, Brian Dozier and Ian Kinsler. Other than that, not much to write home about. Losing Prince Fielder to an early retirement was especially disappointing. There is a lot of work that needs to be done to their lineup. Things weren’t as bad for the pitching staff, although there were some disappointments there too. On the positive side, for the second straight year, the Moonshiners were the proud owners of the Cy Young candidate who came out of nowhere. This year, it was Kyle Hendricks who led the league in ERA and WHIP. Last year, it was Dallas Keuchel. However, Hendricks was pretty much the lone bright spot in the rotation. Their dynamic trio from a year ago, Keuchel, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, all had disappointing seasons this time around.

Through the first couple months of the season, one of the best stories in the league was the return to power of the Gators, a franchise that hasn’t finished in the top half of the standings since 2008 and hasn’t finished above the bottom three spots since 2010. Unfortunately for them, their season unravelled in the second half and that streak of bottom three finishes continued with another eighth place finish. They had the opposite problem as the Moonshiners. They had a decent enough offense, but easily the league’s worst pitching. The offense was carried by two unexpected sources: breakout star and former first round pick Wil Myers and previously enigmatic shortstop Jean Segura. Segura was one of four players to put up a 20/30 HR/SB season. You may be familiar with the other three: Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Altuve. The Gators easily led the league in stolen bases thanks to Segura, Myers, Starling Marte and Dee Gordon. The pitching staff was a mess, with two notable exceptions: Jose Quintana and Zach Britton. Britton accumulated 47 saves with an absurdly low 0.54 ERA. One of these years, the Gators are going to put it all together. But they are definitely going to need to improve the pitching staff to get to that point.

We nearly had the preposterous situation of one team going from worst to first and another doing the exact opposite this year. However, the defending champion Jackalope were just barely able to avoid finishing dead last while settling for ninth place. Simply put, this season was a write-off for the Jackalope. After everything went their way a year ago, very little went right in 2016. And not to make excuses, but Jay had a pretty good one. He spent most of the summer preparing for a deployment and simply didn’t have time to manage his roster. Had his team been more competitive, we probably would have found a temporary replacement. But anyway, this is still a team loaded with talent. Josh Donaldson had another elite season. Paul Goldschmidt had one of the quietest 24 home run, 32 stolen base years a player has ever had. They did not get even close to the same kind of production out of their starting rotation as they did in ’15. Jake Arrieta was good, but definitely not the same. Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray had injury riddled years. And overall, the roster just wasn’t as deep as it was in their championship campaign. Next year will almost certainly be better for this squad.

Before the season, I tabbed the Cougars as the most improved team in the league. Well, that didn’t really pan out. For the second time in three years, the Cougars finished in last place. They were among the bottom teams in the league in both batting and pitching points, so there weren’t a ton of bright spots. But there was one: second overall draft pick Kris Bryant, who already appears to be one of the best players in the league. He slugged 39 homers with 102 RBI and 121 runs scored. Charlie Blackmon also quietly emerged as one of the top players in the league. Most of their other key players had disappointing seasons, however. The pitching staff was surprisingly ineffective. Madison Bumgarner was his usual dominant self. But other than him, there weren’t many good performances to point to from this staff. To end on a positive note, this season was proof that a last place finish is hardly a disqualifier for contending the following season. So there is hope for 2017 for the Cougars.

Posted in Cougars, Darkhorses, Gators, Jackalope, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »