Archive for April, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Part IV

Tuesday, April 4th, 2017


Everybody wants to be first… except when it comes to first place in the DTBL season preview series.  In all the years I’ve been doing these projections, no team that has been tabbed as the preseason favorite has ever actually gone on to win the league championship.  On top of that, no team has repeated as DTBL champions since the Darkhorses won a share of their fourth consecutive title back in 2010.  So that’s two trends the Kings will need to buck this season.  While they have received top billing in these projections, it is by the thinnest of margins over the Choppers and not far ahead of the Mavericks and other as well.  Since we are now in day three of the 2017 MLB season, it is time to start focusing on the games at hand.  So here are the final two team previews, for the teams expected to finish at the top of the standings.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 4th (4th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (2nd-T)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (3rd)
  • Wins – 4th (1st)
  • Saves – 1st (5th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Points – 2nd (3rd)

Summary:

Quietly, the Choppers have finished in the top four in the league for four straight seasons.  However, last season was the first time that they were truly in a pennant race in 15 years.  Finishing 2 1/2 points out was their closest margin of defeat since winning their last title in 1999.  This year, they would like to take the final step and win the whole thing.  It would be no surprise if they did just that.  If it weren’t for the Mavericks, we’d be gushing with superlatives for the Choppers pitching staff.  They finished just 1/2 point behind the Mavs in pitching points last season and are only projected to be two points behind them this year.  Chris Sale and Jon Lester will be joined by Danny Duffy to create a dynamic trio of southpaws at the top of the rotation.  Righties Danny Salazar and Masahiro Tanaka aren’t too shabby either.  They are a pretty good bet to lead the league in saves with four very good closers who all have decent job security at the moment (Craig Kimbrel, Ken Giles, A.J. Ramos and Kelvin Herrera).  The Choppers will probably need to beat these batting projections to win the title, however.  It is worth noting though that they are hurt a bit in these numbers by carrying three catchers on their roster, one of whom won’t play until later this summer (Wilson Ramos).  In the draft, they added several proven veterans to their existing cast with the likes of Dustin Pedroia (a re-acquisition), Carlos Gomez and Troy Tulowitzki.  The core of the offense remains Anthony Rizzo, Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista and the defending home run champion, Mark Trumbo.  This is a team loaded with proven hitters.  Can they deliver one more time?  If so, the Choppers have an excellent shot at ending their 18 year championship drought.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (2nd-T)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (2nd)
  • Wins – 8th (4th-T)
  • Saves – 3rd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (3rd)
  • Total Points – 1st (1st)

Summary:

The Kings have proven to be a hard team to project in recent years, in part because the previous season never seems to have any bearing on what will happen next.  The Kings past four finishes:  1st, 6th, 10th, 1st.  So predicting them to finish in the same spot two consecutive years seems like a losing bet.  Yet here we are.  Which Kings offense will we see in 2017?  The one that dominated the league through the All-Star break a year ago, or the one that completely fell apart down the stretch and nearly cost them the title?  The projections lean more towards the former.  They made some key moves to fill the one obvious weakness on offense:  corner infield.  They traded Gregory Polanco to the Moonshiners for Kyle Seager and used draft picks on Ryon Healy and Victor Martinez.  Reigning MVP Mookie Betts is the main man in a very good outfield that should be able to overcome the loss of Polanco with the return to health by A.J. Pollock.  First round pick David Dahl will join his two Rockies teammates, Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez, in the Kings outfield as well, once all are healthy.  Robinson Cano, Carlos Correa and Aledmys Diaz make up a pretty strong middle infield.  A Kings repeat will likely come down to the pitching staff.  Last year, it was basically a two man show with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  They hope for great years from that duo again, but would like to get more from Marcus Stroman and Jeff Samardzija as well.  The key man in the rotation may be second round pick Lance McCullers, who has put up solid numbers early in his career, but has not been able to stay healthy.  The bullpen features four closers, but only the currently suspended Jeurys Familia would be considered above average.  Repeating their first place finish in saves seems unlikely.  The Kings certainly have the pieces in place to win the championship again this year, but their recent lack of consistency makes them anything but a safe bet.

Posted below are the full projected standings.  These numbers point to an extremely tight race, particularly at the top of the standings.  It would be very easy to make a case for any of the top five teams to win the title, and even beyond that, there are reasons for hope.  It should be an extremely entertaining season.  So, to paraphrase Hawk Harrelson, it is time to sit back, relax and strap it down.  The 2017 DTBL season is upon us!

Posted in Choppers, Kings | No Comments »

2017 Season Preview: Part III

Sunday, April 2nd, 2017


As I’m sitting here writing, the first official game of the 2017 season just ended with the Rays beating the Yankees.  And now the second game, featuring the Giants and Diamondbacks, is underway.  So, welcome to the 2017 season!  We still have four more teams to cover in our season preview series, however.  In this edition, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish in third and fourth places.  The teams that remain have all been regulars near the top of the standings in recent seasons, so there aren’t any big surprises here.  The pair of teams covered in this particular article were probably both slightly disappointed by their place of finish from 2016, but both will be serious contenders this season.  These teams are projected to finish within seven points of the top placed squad.  Here is a preview of the 2017 Naturals and Mavericks.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (4th)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (7th)
  • Wins – 5th (3rd)
  • Saves – 4th (5th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (5th)
  • Total Points – 4th (6th)

Summary:

Believe it or not, the Naturals are the only team projected to finish in the top half of the league in both batting and pitching points.  So a strong argument could be made that this is the most balanced team in the league.  They have clearly improved an offense that was very disappointing a year ago.  They used their first three draft picks on exciting young infielders:  Yoan Moncada, Dansby Swanson and Jose Peraza.  Moncada is the big name of that trio, but the other two figure to be much more important pieces for this season.  Add those guys to an existing foundation of Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Nolan Arenado and you’ve got yourself quite the infield.  The outfield isn’t bad either with Trea Turner, Andrew McCutchen and Justin Upton.  It would be hard to imagine the Naturals finishing in the bottom half in batting points again this year.  The pitching staff is pretty interesting as well.  It’s essentially the same core as last year, with Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco as the aces.  David Price’s health is certainly a major concern at the moment, however.  The saves projection may be a tad light because it doesn’t include free agent signing Blake Treinen.  I’m not sure how the Naturals wound up getting him being fifth in free agent priority, but they aren’t going to complain.  They don’t have a standout closer, but they ought to be able to rack up a bunch of saves with the five closers currently on the roster.  After two disappointing seasons in sixth place, the Naturals definitely look like a title contender for this season.  They are possibly the most complete team in the league.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 8th (1st-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (1st)
  • Wins – 1st (6th)
  • Saves – 5th (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th-T (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (1st)
  • Total Points – 3rd (4th)

Summary:

Another season, another year with the Mavericks having the best pitching staff in the league.  I could have just copied and pasted whatever I wrote in this section about the Mavericks pitchers last year, because this is almost literally the exact same staff.  The gist:  they are good.  They are projected to blow away the rest of the league in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.  Not surprising with a rotation led by Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish and Stephen Strasburg.  They even managed to reacquire a couple hurlers who they cut a couple months ago:  Matt Harvey and Taijuan Walker.  The newcomers to the rotation are Kenta Maeda and Sean Manaea, who may seem like unnecessary luxuries.  But keep in mind that one of the big reasons why the Mavericks were unable to win the championship last year is because they suffered injuries to almost all of the previously mentioned pitchers.  This year, they are loaded with depth in case that happens again.  The bullpen is borderline unfair.  Only two closers:  Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances are such reliable strikeout machines that they hold significant value as setup men.  It would be hard to imagine the Mavericks not regaining the top spot in the league in strikeouts.  There are questions on offense, however.  These projections don’t show a lot of promise beyond Mike Trout and Manny Machado.  The Mavericks don’t need a great offense to win this league, but they will need a couple other hitters to have breakout years.  Andrew Benintendi, Byron Buxton, Addison Russell, Nomar Mazara and Tim Anderson are all candidates to do just that.  No matter what happens with the bats, this will be a championship contender on the strength of the league’s best pitching staff.

Posted in Mavericks, Naturals | No Comments »

2017 Season Preview: Part II

Saturday, April 1st, 2017


Part two of the 2017 DTBL season preview will examine three teams who are projected to finish near the middle of the standings.  This would be a major change from last year for all three squads.  Two of them would view this as a positive move in the right direction while the other would consider this to be a major disappointment after nearly winning the championship a year ago.  I should mention that the projected league standings shows very little separation among these three teams in particular, but really the entire projected top seven finishers.  You can even throw in the Moonshiners and have eight teams who are prognosticated to be within 20 points of first place.  So it wouldn’t take a whole lot of weird stuff to happen for any of these teams to win the league.  Here are the teams projected to finish in fifth through seventh place.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (1st)
  • Home Runs – 5th (1st-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (4th)
  • Wins – 7th (2nd)
  • Saves – 9th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (4th)
  • Total Points – 7th (2nd)

Summary:

In the Darkhorses preview, I said that I thought their projected fall from 5th to 9th was the biggest surprise we’d see.  Well, here we have the Demigods falling even one spot further.  But this one is less surprising, in my opinion.  You simply can’t replace one of the best pitchers in the game, which is the obstacle the Demigods must overcome after the passing of Jose Fernandez.  The weakened pitching prognostication makes sense.  Attempting to replace Fernandez will be Aaron Nola and Matt Shoemaker.  Nice pitchers, but not the same.  Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto will remain the true aces of the staff.  This is still an above average rotation.  However, it doesn’t appear to be elite.  The bullpen remains one of the league’s worst with a pair of closers who don’t have great job security (Tony Watson and Jeanmar Gomez).  What is more troubling about these projections is the offensive drop-off.  But the Demigods remain a balanced hitting team with solid players in every slot.  Jose Altuve, Freddie Freeman and Francisco Lindor are the stars.  A key newcomer to keep an eye on is Greg Bird.  If he continues his hot spring training into the regular season, there is no reason to think the Demigods couldn’t be near the top of the league in the power categories again this year.  I’m sure the Demigods have much higher expectations for this season than this.  There are plenty of reasons to believe they can make a run at that elusive first championship again this year.

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 6th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (9th)
  • Wins – 6th (7th)
  • Saves – 7th (7th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (8th-T)
  • Total Points – 6th (10th)

Summary:

Here we have the most positively surprising projection.  The numbers show potential for major improvement from the Cougars, who finished in last place in 2016.  The improvement is especially impressive on the pitching side.  Madison Bumgarner leads the way, of course, but a major bounce-back season from Chris Archer seems probable.  Three interesting newcomers join the rotation too:  the ageless Rich Hill, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy the past couple years, Jameson Taillon and Jerad Eickhoff.  This rotation has a little bit of everything.  The bullpen is respectable as well, with Cody Allen, Alex Colome and David Robertson.  In order to see significant improvement from the Cougars this year, the bats will need to take a huge step forward.  First overall draft pick Trevor Story should help in that regard.  He and Kris Bryant form quite a duo on the left side of the Cougars infield.  Underrated Charlie Blackmon leads the outfield.  I think it is safe to project the Cougars to soar past their league worst home run total from last season.  While it has been painful for the Cougars finishing near the bottom of the standings the past three years, it has allowed them to restock the lineup with high draft picks (Bryant, Story and Jose Abreu). Perhaps this is the year those assets start paying off.

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2016 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 1st (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 1st (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (8th)
  • Wins – 3rd (9th)
  • Saves – 6th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (8th-T)
  • Total Points – 5th (9th)

Summary:

Here we have another projection that shows a massive improvement over last season.  But unlike the Cougars, this one isn’t particularly surprising.  Last season was essentially a write-off for the Jackalope.  The core of the team that won the championship two seasons ago remains, particularly on the batting side where they are still one of the best hitting teams in the league, despite what happened a year ago.  Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Donaldson are still two of the best players in the game.  Goldschmidt had the quietest 20/30 season I think I’ve ever seen.  32 steals out of a first baseman is insane.  New to the lineup is Gary Sanchez, who should give the Jackalope a huge edge over most teams at the catching position.  Perhaps the most important player for this team this year will be Giancarlo Stanton.  If he has a healthy, productive season, the Jackalope will almost certainly be one of the best hitting teams in the league.  The pitching staff does not appear to be top notch, however.  Jake Arrieta returned to being somewhat human a year ago, but still an elite pitcher.  Gerrit Cole figures to be healthier and more productive in ’17.  Tanner Roark and A.J. Happ give the Jackalope two of the more underrated pitchers in the game.  The bullpen features just two closers, but they are among the best in the league:  Wade Davis and Mark Melancon.  An improvement over last season seems like a forgone conclusion for the Jackalope.  But will they be a championship contender?  The talent is there.

Posted in Cougars, Demigods, Jackalope | No Comments »