Archive for May, 2017

Homer/Whiff Trends Continue

Saturday, May 6th, 2017


The early returns are in and the statistical trends of the past few seasons seem to be continuing into 2017.  Last year featured the most home runs in the DTBL since 2001 and the highest K/IP rate in league history.  I didn’t take the time to compute the exact home run and strikeout pace for the league this season, but based on MLB numbers, it appears the all-time league total single season home run and strikeout records are in jeopardy of falling this year.  In MLB, there have been 1.17 HR per team, per game this season, up slightly from 1.16 last year and virtually tied with the all-time record in 2000.  Considering that the weather hasn’t even started to heat up in many of the league’s cities yet, this number only figures to rise.  Meanwhile, batters are whiffing at a significantly higher rate than last season’s record breaking number.  So far this season, there have been 8.22 strikeouts per team, per game, way up from last year’s record 8.03.

Obviously, the surge in home runs and strikeouts has a big impact on those two categories in this league, but other categories as well.  The league batting average sits at just .260 right now, which would be the lowest mark in league history by eight points!  While batters are reaching base safely via hits at a much lower rate, scoring overall is actually up.  The league ERA sits at 3.65, which is higher than the full season total from any of the past seven seasons.  So, in summary, strikeouts and homers are way up, runs are slightly up and batting average is way down.  The era of the three true outcome hitters (home runs, strikeouts, walks) appears to be here to stay for a while.

Players of the Month are back again for another season.  As usual, these awards will be handed out to the batter and pitcher who had the highest PAR for the month.  I will also continue to use these articles to chronicle the winners of the weekly honors as well.  Here are the top players from the first month of the 2017 season.

Batters of the Week:

Week 1 (4/2 – 4/9) – Nomar Mazara, Mavericks
Week 2 (4/10 – 4/16) – Marcell Ozuna, Naturals
Week 3 (4/17 – 4/23) – Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
Week 4 (4/24 – 4/30) – Ryan Zimmerman, Demigods

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 1 (4/2 – 4/9) – Jake Arrieta, Jackalope
Week 2 (4/10 – 4/16) – James Paxton, Naturals
Week 3 (4/17 – 4/23) – Max Scherzer, Kings
Week 4 (4/24 – 4/30) – Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners

As the above names indicate, April was a good month for the Nationals and players looking for a bounce-back after disappointing seasons a year ago.  Harper, Zimmerman and Keuchel were among some of the most disappointing players in the league last year, compared to their varying expectations.  So far, so good in 2017.  Here are the monthly award winners for April:

Batter of the Month:

Bryce Harper, Darkhorses
.391 AVG, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 32 R, 0 SB, 3.31 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners
1.21 ERA, 0.806 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 3.83 PAR

For the second consecutive season, Bryce Harper has won the April Batter of the Month award.  Of course, last year, things started to go off the rails for Harper soon after the calendar turned to May.  But there are plenty of reasons to think that won’t happen again this year.  For one thing, he looks healthier.  Also, his April was even better this year than last.  He is easily leading the league in runs scored and is right near the top in AVG, HR and RBI as well.  I didn’t run the numbers to confirm it, but I believe this honor would have actually gone to Harper’s Nationals teammate Ryan Zimmerman had he been on the Demigods roster right from Opening Day.  Despite spending a week as a free agent, Zimmerman still came in second in the league in PAR for April.  Another Demigod, Freddie Freeman was third.

April was a very encouraging month from Dallas Keuchel.  He currently leads the league in wins and is third in both ERA and WHIP.  If he has returned to 2015 form, the Moonshiners should be in good shape.  Keuchel won this monthly honor fairly easily, but three other pitchers had outstanding months as well.  Two not very surprising names:  Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale, and one not so expected:  James Paxton.  Unfortunately, Paxton’s hot start was tempered a bit as he was placed on the DL yesterday.

One last note.  I knew this day was coming, but it appears Getty now has ads embedded in their images.  It is annoying, but I think I’m going to continue to use them anyway as I’m not aware of another similar free/legal source for baseball photos.