2023 Season Preview: Part IV

April 3rd, 2023 by Kevin

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It is now time for the final installment of the 2023 DTBL season preview series.  If you thought we’d seen the last of projected ties after the last section where three teams were slotted to finish tied for fourth place, you’d be wrong.  There are two more teams with exactly four more projected standings points than that trio, which puts them in a tie for second place in these standings.  Then, in a bit of a departure from the norm, the projected champion has a fairly decent lead over all challengers according to these numbers.  That is particularly surprising since that team is expected to have a below average offense.

Based strictly on 2022 results, the presense of two of these teams in the final preview section is quite surprising.  But then if you look at the rosters and examine the reasons for the disappointing seasons a year ago, it starts to make sense.  All three of these squads have the goods to win the DTBL in 2023.  Here are the projected top three teams in the league heading into the 2023 season.

 

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases - 2nd (4th)
  • Earned Run Average - 4th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)
  • Wins – 9th (8th-T)
  • Saves – 8th (9th)
  • Strike Outs - 3rd (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (7th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (5th)
  • Total Points - 2nd-T (7th)

Summary:

Impressively, the Jackalope are expected to finish at or above their point total from last year in all 10 categories.  That’s how you go about turning a disappointing finish one season into championship contention the next, by improving across the board.  While I mentioned the Kings being one of the most balanced teams in the league, the Jackalope probably deserve the title in that regard.  They are projected to finish in the top four in both batting and pitching points.  No other team can claim that.  Having said that, the pitching projections mainly expected full healthy seasons from the Jackalope hurlers, and the season is off to a bad start in that regard.  With Tyler Glasnow, Luis Severino and Triston McKenzie all starting the season on the I.L., they are down three projected rotation pieces.  That still leaves them with two of the best pitchers in the game though in Gerrit Cole and Luis Castillo.  They also have Lance Lynn returning to anchor a spot.  The newcomers who will need to pick up the slack early are Brady Singer and Andrew Heaney.  The bullpen is also banged up heading into the season, most notably without top closer Raisel Iglesias.  Alex Lange, Giovanny Gallegos and Jason Adam give them some other interesting options in relief.  The good news is, they should get all of those ailing pitchers back at some point.  Perhaps the offense will need to carry the load early on though.  Fortunately, they are equipped to do just that.  Ronald Acuna is back to full health and could be a legit 40/40 candidate this year.  His Braves teammate Michael Harris joins him in the Jackalope outfield as well.  Like Acuna, the first round pick Harris figures to be an elite power and speed guy.  And then there is Adolis Garcia, giving the Jackalope three outfielders with at least 20/20 HR/SB projections.  If Giancarlo Stanton can stay healthy, this should be the best outfield in the league outside of the Mavericks.  On the infield, Paul Goldschmidt is the main returning cog.  There are several new additions here, including Jeremy Pena and Josh Jung, with Cal Raleigh behind the plate.  The infield is unproven compared to the outfield, but there are a bunch of young guys with breakout potential.  It has been a couple disappointing seasons in a row for the Jackalope.  These numbers point to a big turnaround in 2023 though.

 

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 5th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (5th)
  • Wins – 8th (1st)
  • Saves – 7th (7th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (4th)
  • Total Points – 2nd-T (1st)

Summary:

The Moonshiners finally won their first DTBL championship in 2022 thanks to solid contributions throughout the roster.  On the offensive side of things, they didn’t have any single player with eye-popping numbers.  Kyle Tucker was the only Moonshiner in the top 15 of Batting PAR.  But they got very good seasons out of pretty much everybody.  So they will attempt to defend the title with another strong, deep roster that actually has room for improvement on offense.  The infield is particularly deep with Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Rafael Devers and Tim Anderson leading the way.  Amed Rosario and Ryan Mountcastle return after being two key breakout performers from a year ago.  They lost the benefit of Daulton Varsho occupying a catching slot while spending most of his time in the outfield, but replaced him in that spot with MJ Melendez who will likely do the same thing:  play most days in the outfield while holding down a catching spot.  Varsho will still be a valuable contributor for the Moonshiners as well, but will have to do it as an outfielder.  He’s joining an outfield that already has two of the most dynamic players in the game in Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.  After a couple straight seasons of excellent work as both a hitter and a pitcher, the Moonshiners had a more complicated decision to make this winter on Ohtani’s position status for ’23.  Ultimately, they opted to leave him in the outfield where he’s been excellent the past three years.  Meanwhile, Tucker is one of only three players (Acuna, Judge) with a 7+ Batting PAR projection for this season.  Part of the reason why the Moonshiners elected to keep Ohtani in the outfield is because they already have arguably the best starting rotation in the league.  Justin Verlander, Alek Manoah and Yu Darvish were three of the top five finishers in Pitching PAR last year, with Verlander taking home the Cy Young award.  Unfortunately, he’ll start this season on the I.L.  Dustin May, Reid Detmers and Jeffrey Springs were all added to the roster in the draft, giving the Moonshiners incredible depth in the rotation.  The bullpen suffered a crushing blow with Edwin Diaz tearing his ACL during a WBC postgame celebration.  This seventh place saves projection was pre-Diaz injury, so they will be hard pressed to not finish near the bottom of the league in saves.  Clay Holmes is probably their best bet to rack up saves.  But Diaz is irreplaceable across all of his numbers.  The Moonshiners certainly have the talent to defend their title.  It just might come in a different manner this time around.

 

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 8th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases - 3rd (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (10th)
  • Wins – 2nd (7th)
  • Saves – 2nd (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (8th)
  • Total Points – 1st (8th)

Summary:

When I first saw these projections, I thought maybe I made a mistake.  How could a team that was among the worst in the league in pitching points last year be far and away the best pitching staff on paper heading into this season?  Well, there are actually a couple credible explanations for this.  First, Jacob deGrom is projected to throw 175 innings this season according to FanGraphs Depth Charts.  That would be 175 more innings than the Darkhorses got from him a year ago.  And on a per inning basis, there is no better starting pitcher in baseball than deGrom.  Of course, you could argue that 175 innings from him is pretty unrealistic since he hasn’t reached that number since 2019.  The other big change is the addition of Spencer Strider to the rotation.  Strider was far and away the best pitcher available in this year’s draft.  So with those two guys in the fold, it is close to a lock the Darkhorses will have a much improved staff.  47 pitching points may be a tad optimistic though.  Strider isn’t the only fireballer joining the rotation.  Hunter Greene was added to the mix as well.  Logan Webb is the key returning rotation piece.  The bullpen being projected to finish second in saves is a product of a lot of unsettled closer situations across the league.  The Darkhorses only have two sure things for saves themselves in Kenley Jansen and Felix Bautista.  Andres Munoz should be a positive contributor out of the pen regardless of how many save opportunities he gets.  Four of the Darkhorses first five draft picks were pitchers.  Combine that with the return of deGrom and the optimistic outlook for the pitching staff starts to make sense.  It is also interesting that a team expected to take a big step back in batting points would still come out on top of the projected standings, but here we are.  Part of that is because of Bryce Harper’s elbow injury recovery, which is baked into these numbers perhaps more pessimistically than recent news would suggest is warranted.  He could be back sooner than later.  And they could use him because no individual hitter has a Batting PAR projection over 4.  Believe it or not, Tommy Edman is the top guy on that list.  He along with Xander Bogaerts, Andres Gimenez and Brandon Lowe make up a solid middle infield.  The Darkhorses could use a return to old form from at least one of their third base pair of Alex Bregman and Matt Chapman.  J.T. Realmuto remains one of the best catchers in the game.  Christian Yelich is another guy from whom they could use a bounce back season.  George Springer is the most reliable producer in the outfield.  All in all, this is a very talented roster and a championship would not be terribly surprising.  I would not blame you if you question them being the preseason favorites though.

 

So there you have it.  We’ve previewed the 2023 season for all 10 teams.  Here are the full projected standings and team point totals for the ten categories:

 

With all the rule changes, it is hard to know exactly what to expect during this 2023 baseball season.  I do expect it to be a lot of fun though.  Good luck to all!

Posted in Darkhorses, Jackalope, Moonshiners | No Comments »

2023 Season Preview: Part III

April 1st, 2023 by Kevin

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With a couple days in the books, we’re already seeing what a difference the new MLB rules are making on the game.  Most obvious is the shortening of the length of games due to the pitch clock.  From a fantasy perspective, the biggest change is probably the increase in stolen bases due to pickoff attempt limits and slightly shorter distances between bases caused by the increased base size.  It is probably still a bit too early to predict *exactly* what this means from a fantasy perspective though.  Will stolen bases simply increase across the board such that no particular type of roster benefits disproportionately?  It will probably cause some funky PAR numbers to pop up though since the threshold for being an above average stolen base contributor had been at a historic low prior to this season.  Anyway, that’s an analysis that can be done at another time when we have more data.

If you were wondering why I only covered a pair of teams in each of the first two preview sections, it is because I kind of had to plan the whole series around today’s trio of teams who are all projected to finish with the exact same number of points.  So it would not have made sense to split them up.  The 56 standings points each are projected to accumulate is pretty much where the similarities end among these teams though.  One is expected to have the best offense in the league, paired with the worst pitching staff.  Another is pegged to have one of the best pitching staffs, but with a near bottom offense.  And then there is the third team that is quite balanced in both parts of the game.  Here are the three teams projected to tie for fourth place.

 

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In - 10th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (3rd)
  • Wins - 4th (3rd)
  • Saves – 3rd (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th-T (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (1st)
  • Total Points – 4th-T (5th)

Summary:

Last year, the Choppers had far and away the best pitching staff in the league.  However, their offense really dragged them down and prevented them from giving the Moonshiners a serious threat down the stretch.  These projections paint a similar picture, although the Choppers did solidify their lineup with some very talented young players who could break out and smash these numbers.  It is a little hard to imagine a team with sluggers like Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber finishing dead last in home runs.  They are the only two on the team slated for more than 25 homers though.  The infield consists of a litany of young players with breakout potential:  Ke’Bryan Hayes, Alec Bohm, Vaughn Grissom, Triston Casas, Nico Hoerner and CJ Abrams.  First round draft pick Adley Rutschman joins Alejandro Kirk to give the Choppers one of the best catching tandems in the league.  The outfield is where they are a bit thin on impact players, besides defending NL home run champion Schwarber.  Steven Kwan and Lars Nootbaar are the newcomers to this group who will try to add a spark.  The pitching staff remains the strength and is mostly unchanged from last year’s pitching point leading group.  Reigning DTBL Rookie of the Year winner Dylan Cease, Brandon Woodruff and Shane Bieber all carry projections that would put them in the conversation for the Cy Young award this season.  Even though he’s been an elite pitcher for quite some time now, Bieber seems to fly under the radar in discussions about the top pitchers in baseball.  He actually has the highest PAR projection of this trio.  Blake Snell and Logan Gilbert round out the rotation and they added Nick Lodolo to give themselves a solid depth piece as well.  Snell’s return to elite form last season was quite a boon to the Choppers staff.  Gilbert being their fifth highest projected PAR starter is pretty envious.  The bullpen is very strong too.  With Edwin Diaz out for the season, Emmanual Clase is pretty much in a class by himself among relievers who can dominate not only in saves, but ERA, WHIP and strikeouts as well.  Jordan Romano is about as steady as they come too.  Trevor May has a shot at getting saves with the A’s.  Brusdar Graterol has the stuff to enter the closer conversation for the Dodgers at some point.  The last couple seasons, the Choppers have put themselves into title contention.  This year, they hope to finally end their near-quarter century title drought.

 

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 6th (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (1st)
  • Stolen Bases - 9th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (8th)
  • Wins – 6th (6th)
  • Saves – 5th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th-T (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (6th-T)
  • Total Points – 4th-T (2nd)

Summary:

On paper, the Kings look like one of the most balanced teams in the league.  They are one of only two to have batting and pitching point projections in the top half of the league.  They don’t have a glaring weakness.  The problem is, they also don’t appear to be particularly strong in any area.  The batting projections are actually a bit troubling for a squad that led the league in batting points a season ago.  Also troubling is the fact that these numbers were compiled before they lost Rhys Hoskins for the season with a torn ACL.  The good news is they do have capable corner infielders to attempt to fill that void with Matt Olson, Austin Riley and newcomer first round pick Gunnar Henderson.  Marcus Semien continues to be one of the most productive middle infielders in the game.  Carlos Correa had a wild offseason of free agent drama, but in the end he’s back in Minnesota and anchoring the shortstop position for the Kings as well.  Will Smith and Sean Murphy return to provide stability and solid production behind the dish for the Kings.  The outfield has a bunch of new additions in Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Vargas and Michael Conforto, but the main guys out there are the returning trio of Mookie Betts, Randy Arozarena and Tyler O’Neill.  Arozarena is someone who could be capable of carrying an offense if he is allowed to run wild this season.  Same goes for Betts, although his stolen base production has been tailing off in recent years.  The Kings almost completely rebuilt their pitching staff.  Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler are the only healthy holdovers from last season’s rotation.  They remain the Kings co-aces.  They’ll need some help from a couple of the newcomers though.  The new additions include George Kirby, Nestor Cortes and Drew Rasmussen, none of whom were household names before last year.  The Kings bullpen could be decent, but it is hard to feel confident about that at the moment.  Camilo Doval appears to be the only sure thing closer in the group.  Paul Sewald and Pete Fairbanks could be in line for plenty of saves too though.  The Kings are strong enough in all areas to remain a title contender.  It’s just not clear if they have enough elite level talent to push them over the top.

 

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (1st)
  • Home Runs - 1st (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In - 1st (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (4th)
  • Wins – 3rd (10th)
  • Saves – 10th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (5th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
  • Total Points – 4th-T (9th)

Summary:

For the first time in three years, the Mavericks are not the pre-season predicted champion.  Perhaps that is just as well as they have fallen short of expectations every season since winning the league in 2017.  Last year was an especially disappointing season as they had the worst finish in franchise history, falling all the way to ninth place.  Unless everything that can go wrong does again, we probably won’t see a repeat of that.  This is an absolutely loaded roster on the hitting side, which creates a pretty high floor, even though the pitching staff is full of question marks.  Pretty much the lone bright spot for the Mavericks last season was Aaron Judge who won the league MVP and broke the AL home run record with 62 bombs.  He’s back along with the rest of the league’s best outfield.  Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Eloy Jimenez and Nick Castellanos are all looking to bounce back from disappointing and/or injury plagued seasons.  Second overall draft pick Bobby Witt Jr gives the Mavericks infield a significant boost and immediately becomes their top stolen base threat.  Manny Machado continues to be the dependable anchor of the infield.  First baseman Nate Lowe had a nice breakout campaign in ’22.  He’s joined at first base by second round pick Vinnie Pasquantino.  In addition to the outfielders mentioned above, another guy looking to stay healthy and go back to being one of the premier players at his position is second baseman Ozzie Albies.  As long as they aren’t ravaged by injuries like they were a year ago, expect the Mavericks to have the best offense in the league.  The pitching staff is another matter though.  The Dodgers pair of Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw are the only safe bets to provide great numbers from the rotation.  Pablo Lopez is a pretty solid #3 option though.  The rest of the starters fall into at least one of these two categories: returning from injury or looking to regain lost form.  This group includes Chris Sale, Jack Flaherty, Freddy Peralta, Tony Gonsolin and Michael Kopech.  So the good news is they have plenty of options.  It remains to be seen which of these guys will step up in 2023.  The bullpen is a complete wild card.  The Mavericks finished the draft with just one healthy reliever in Alexis Diaz.  They hope to add Liam Hendriks as a reliable closer at some point as he is currently battling back from cancer.  Hunter Brown is an intriguing bullpen piece as a decent bet to hold down a rotation spot for the Astros for parts of the season.  The Mavericks don’t have their typical rosy outlook heading into this season, but they are close to a lock to put last season behind them and be a competitive team this year.

Posted in Choppers, Kings, Mavericks | No Comments »

2023 Season Preview: Part II

March 29th, 2023 by Kevin

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Happy Opening Day Eve!  Let’s get one more part of the 2023 season preview out of the way before the first pitch of the season.  The remaining parts will probably have to wait until at least Friday as I will be attending the Braves/Nats opener tomorrow afternoon and will likely be watching baseball all evening as well.

Tonight, we’re going to cover two more teams.  It is interesting that these two particular teams fall into this section of the preview series together because, with the exception of the champion Moonshiners, these were probably 2022′s two most pleasant surprises.  So a fall down to the seventh and eighth places where these projections have them would be a bit disappointing.  At the same time, it also sets them up to be pleasant surprises again this season if they were to contend for the title again.  Not to spoil what’s to come later this week, but these two teams are within 10 projected standings points of every team but one.  So we’re already looking at teams that could very conceivably be in the championship hunt.  Here are the teams projected to finish in seventh and eight place in 2023.

 

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases - 1st (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (2nd)
  • Wins – 7th (5th)
  • Saves - 4th (6th)
  • Strike Outs - 9th (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (5th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (2nd)
  • Total Points – 8th (3rd)

Summary:

The first thing that sticks out when looking at the Demigods projections is how wildly different the rankings are compared to their ’22 finish in a wide variety of categories.  Last year, the Demigods rode an elite power pitching staff to the second most pitching points in the league.  This year, they are projected to be near the bottom in their best pitching categories from last year (ERA, WHIP, Ks).  Meanwhile, they were a below average team in both power and speed on offense a year ago, but are now projected near the top in home runs and first place in stolen bases.  All of this would make sense if they underwent a massive roster retooling in the offseason and draft, but that didn’t really happen.  Although, the return of Fernando Tatis Jr from injury and suspension will undoubtedly give their offense a boost.  Tatis returns to an infield that remains quite potent with Freddie Freeman and Francisco Lindor.  They will be without Jose Altuve for the first quarter of the season though after he broke his thumb getting hit by a pitch in the WBC.  First round draft pick Corbin Carroll should give a nice boost to an outfield that could use it.  His speed alone does give some credence to the stolen base ranking surge.  If the Demigods could ever get a full season out of Byron Buxton, that could be a game changer.  These projections do have him as their top outfield producer.  The pitching staff is essentially unchanged from last year, at least among the most important guys, making the fall in projected points quite peculiar.  The rotation brings back Max Fried, Aaron Nola, Joe Musgrove, Zac Gallen and Robbie Ray, all of whom had good seasons a year ago and are projected to be well above average again this year.  They even added Kyle Wright to supplement this core.  As long as most of these guys stay healthy, I do not see them falling near the bottom of the league in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.  The bullpen is decent, but perhaps in a precarious spot with a couple closers on bad teams in David Bednar and Kyle Finnegan.  I think there is good reason for the Demigods to be optimistic following their third place finish a year ago, despite these projections.  This is a solid roster top to bottom.

 

Kat’s Komodos

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In - 2nd (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases - 6th (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (9th)
  • Wins - 1st (4th)
  • Saves - 9th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th-T (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th (6th-T)
  • Total Points – 7th (4th)

Summary:

The Komodos have a pretty exciting young core of hitters returning this season.  Much like the Demigods pitching staff, the Komodos have basically the same offense as last year.  Jose Ramirez remains one of the most dependable stars in the game and could be a legit 30/30 threat this season with the expected increase in steals across the league.  With a full season under his belt, Wander Franco could be on the verge of breaking into the upper stratosphere of players in ’23.  He is paired with another consistently solid shortstop in Corey Seager.  Meanwhile, Willy Adames has quietly become a force at that position as well.  The newcomer to the infield is Thairo Estrada, who has a chance to become an elite power/speed guy too.  The Komodos probably have the best outfield of any team covered so far, led by Yordan Alvarez.  The duo of Luis Robert and Starling Marte are coming off injury plagued seasons, but both remain elite talents when healthy.  If Cody Bellinger were to return to his old form, this would be a tough outfield to beat.  The pitching staff has some question marks going into the season, but it is worth noting these projections already take into account that Walker Buehler is likely to miss the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Luckily for the Komodos, their two breakout pitching stars from a year ago, Shane McClanahan and Framber Valdez are back for more this season.  The Komodos pitching staff will probably go as the Astros go, because after McClanahan, their top three hurlers all play in Houston:  Valdez, Luis Garcia and first round pick Cristian Javier.  I can think of worse teams to be saturated with than the defending World Series champs.  It is hard to project what the Komodos will get from their relievers.  Devin Williams is the only sure thing closer on the roster.  Jhoan Duran and Rafael Montero (another Astro) have nasty enough stuff to help ERA, WHIP and strikeout totals even if they don’t get many saves.  The Komodos will look to build off of their first ever top half finish a year ago.

 

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2023 Season Preview: Part I

March 28th, 2023 by Kevin

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We’re just a couple days away from the start of the 2023 DTBL season, so it is probably about time I kick off the season preview series.  At risk of undermining this whole process, I feel obligated to highlight just how poor of a job the 2022 preview series did of prognosticating what was to come.  The 2022 projections had the Moonshiners finishing in ninth place.  They won the league.  They had the Mavericks edging out the Darkhorses for the league title.  Those teams finished ninth and eighth respectively.  After such a poor showing, I considered altering my methodology for this season.  However, I ultimately decided against it because I’m not sure it would be worth the effort to make tweaks that may or may not actually help.  This is really just an exercise to highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses of each team entering the season.  It couldn’t be clearer that almost any team could win this league in any given season if things go there way.

So yeah, we’re keeping the process the same for 2023.  Just a couple days prior to the start of the draft, I grabbed the FanGraphs Depth Chart projections for this season.  As a reminder, FanGraphs Depth Chart uses two other projection systems:  ZiPS and Steamer, and then adjusts the numbers based on expected playing time for each MLB team.  So what I do is take those Depth Charts projections for each player and add them to the appropriate team as the draft progresses.  At the conclusion of the draft, I tally up the numbers for each team and scale them to 8,285 plate appearances and 1,220 innings pitched.  All 28 players who are on each team’s roster at the conclusion of the draft are included, regardless of position distribution or expected major/minor slot distributions.  I don’t want to be in the business of projecting how teams are going to set their lineups.  That said, including stats for all 28 players who will occupy just 23 slots could positively or negatively impact certain teams depending on how those extra spots are distributed.  Just keep that in mind as we go along.  Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that these projections were from early March.  So major injuries that have occurred since then, like Edwin Diaz and Rhys Hoskins, are not reflected in these numbers even though those guys aren’t expected to play this season.  I’ll point out these situations again in the individual team write-ups.  Finally, at the conclusion of this series, I’ll post the full projected standings and team stat totals.

We start with the two teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.  Interestingly, no teams are projected for fewer than 43 points.  So it wouldn’t take too much overachieving on these numbers for these squads to be in the hunt.  And again, keep in mind the Moonshiners were part of this section last year.

 

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (8th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (6th)
  • Wins – 5th (2nd)
  • Saves – 6th (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th-T (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th (3rd)
  • Total Points – 10th (6th)

Summary:

2022 was a disappointing season for the Cougars offense.  Ultimately, it was what kept them from contending for the title because the pitching staff was very good.  These projections show a slight improvement to the offense, but the pitching numbers have dropped to the middle of the pack.  Most of the players expected to fill everyday lineup spots are solid contributors.  But there is a lack of eye-popping projections on the offensive side of things.  Cedric Mullins is the only Cougars hitter with a projected batting PAR over 4.  Next closest is newcomer Jake McCarthy who could be a sneaky great stolen base machine if given enough playing time.  First round pick Bryan Reynolds will join them to lead the way in the outfield.  Salvador Perez remains one of the best offensive catchers in the game and is joined by rookie Shea Langeliers to make an intriguing catching duo.  The infield lacks star power, but has a good bounce back candidate in Ketel Marte and Jose Abreu moving to the cozy confines of Houston should get his power numbers back to normal.  Perhaps what the Cougars need the most is a full, healthy season from Kris Bryant to see exactly what he can do in the thin air of Denver.  The pitching staff is once again led by Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon, the latter of whom will need to get and then stay healthy to match his great ’22 numbers.  A return to form for Lucas Giolito would go a long way towards keeping the Cougars among the league’s top pitching staffs.  The bullpen should be decent with Ryan Pressly and Scott Barlow firmly entrenched as closers and Seranthony Dominguez, Kendall Graveman and Evan Phillips in the mix for saves and other high leverage work as well.  The Cougars have been stuck in the middle of the standings for the past half decade.  Falling to last place is certainly not how they want to end that streak.

 

Dan’s Diamond Dogs

Category – Projected Rank (2022 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 4th (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases - 7th (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (7th)
  • Wins – 10th (8th-T)
  • Saves - 1st (7th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th-T (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (10th)
  • Total Points – 9th (10th)

Summary:

I’m not sure I would call a last place finish a success, but the Diamond Dogs did exceed their ’22 projection by a point and weren’t nearly as far behind the pack as expected in their inaugural season.  One could argue positioning themselves to draft Julio Rodriguez with the first pick in the draft was not the worst thing in the world either.  Rodriguez joins an offense that is as star studded as almost any team in the league.  The rest of those stars are on the infield though.  The outfield was a bit barren before Rodriguez’s arrival.  His new Mariners teammate Teoscar Hernandez is the next best of the bunch.  The infield is loaded, particularly on the left side.  The shortstop trio of Trea Turner, Bo Bichette and Oneil Cruz is an embarrassment of riches.  Nolan Arenado at third base is a MVP candidate in his own right.  Gleyber Torres will be asked to fill in for Brendan Rodgers who will miss a good chunk of the season.  Behind the dish, Travis d’Arnaud and Danny Jansen are both above average players, but are stuck in time shares with other good catchers for their respective MLB clubs.  In total, the Dogs should have no trouble exceeding their batting point total from last season.  The pitching staff is a bit of a work in progress as they wait for Shane Baz and John Means to return from Tommy John surgery.  Reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara is head and shoulders above the rest of the staff.  Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon and Charlie Morton give them some steady veteran arms to hold things together though.  The bullpen is probably the strength of the team heading into the season, which is interesting considering they finished near the bottom in saves a year ago.  Holdover Josh Hader is joined by second round pick Ryan Helsley and a couple later round picks in Daniel Bard and Jose Leclerc, all of whom are currently projected to lead their teams in saves.  Slowly but surely, the Diamond Dogs are building a solid team.  Ideally, they will take a step forward this season and not pick first in the draft again next year.

Posted in Cougars, Diamond Dogs | No Comments »

Back To Basics

March 28th, 2023 by Kevin

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After having written a grand total of just four blog posts in the past eight months, I am aiming to do four or five this week alone.  Most of them will make up our annual DTBL season preview series.  However, before I get to that, I want to do a quick review of the recently completed draft.  The 2022 draft was rather unusual with a majority of the first round picks being pitchers.  This year, things were back to normal.  The first round was comprised of mostly young hitters.  While the beginning of the 2023 DTBL draft was rather predictable, it was also quite interesting.

The draft kicked off with the Diamond Dogs making the first  pick for the second consecutive season.  Last year, they went a bit off the board in selecting pitcher Shane Baz, a move which backfired quickly as he hurt his elbow soon after the draft and eventually had Tommy John surgery.  This year, the Dogs played it more conventionally, selecting the clear best available player in the draft in outfielder Julio Rodriguez.  Not only was Rodriguez the consensus best available player in this draft, I’ve seen dynasty rankings that have him #1 among *all* MLB players heading into this season.  He broke into the big leagues with a 28 home run and 25 stolen base season, earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.  It has been quite some time since a player had such a dominant rookie season in both of those categories.  He has true five category star potential and should be a cornerstone for the Diamond Dogs franchise for years to come.

Speaking of guys with elite power and speed talent, the Mavericks selected shortstop Bobby Witt Jr with the second pick.  Witt also joined the rookie 20/20 fraternity with 20 home runs and 30 steals.  The stolen base aspect of his game will give the Mavericks the only thing they were missing from their extremely potent offense.  Witt is of course the son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, who had a one season stint in the DTBL with the Metros in 1997.

The first pitcher selected was Spencer Strider by the Darkhorses at #3.  Strider was an under the radar prospect who made his presence felt immediately at the big league level.  He struck out 202 hitters in just 131 innings pitched, while posting a 2.67 ERA and a sub 1.0 WHIP.  Like Rodriguez being the first hitter taken, there was little doubt that Strider would be the first pitcher off the board.

Strider’s Braves teammate, outfielder Michael Harris II was the fourth pick, taken by the Jackalope.  Harris is yet another huge power and speed contributor.  He hit 19 home runs with 20 steals while posting a .297 average.  In almost any other year, he would have been the best five category player available.  Perhaps playing in a loaded Braves lineup does give him the best immediate outlook among these top hitters though.

The first non-DTBL rookie selected was outfielder Bryan Reynolds.  The Cougars picked him up in the fifth slot.  Reynolds was a surprising drop by the Komodos this winter, but the Cougars were happy to add him to their roster.  He could be an especially nice addition if the Pirates were to trade him to a team that would offer more lineup protection.

It is almost hard to believe, but prior to this year there had not been a catcher selected in the first round of the draft since 2017 (Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras).  The Choppers ended that drought by choosing Adley Rutschman at #6.  Rutschman had been the #1 prospect in baseball heading into last season according to many publications, and one of the most highly touted catching prospects in modern history.  He had a very good rookie campaign and should give the Choppers a leg up on most of the league at an extremely shallow position.

The second and final pitcher of the first round was Cristian Javier, selected by the Komodos with the seventh pick.  Javier had a decent stint with the Jackalope back in 2021, but fell off the league roster last year as the Astros kept shuffling him between the rotation and bullpen.  He established himself as an extremely valuable starter last season though, highlighted by his dominant performance in the Astros combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

The next two picks are the consensus top two prospects in baseball heading into this season, as the others drafted ahead of them have already exhausted their MLB rookie eligibility.  The Demigods took speedy outfielder Corbin Carroll with the eighth pick.  Carroll stole 33 bases across three levels last season.  Oh, he also has pop.  He hit 28 home runs in his ’22 minor and major league season.

Third baseman Gunnar Henderson went to the Kings in the ninth slot.  Corner infield wasn’t exactly a position of need for the Kings going into the draft, but they are certainly happy to have Henderson now with Rhys Hoskins out for the year.  Henderson doesn’t have quite the same speed as the other hitters picked ahead of him, but he can run a bit and certainly has big league raw power.

Finally, the defending champion Moonshiners selected catcher MJ Melendez with the last pick of the first round.  Melendez filled in admirably behind the plate for the Royals when Salvador Perez got hurt last summer.  This year, he will likely spend most of his time in the outfield, but should catch often enough to maintain catcher eligibility.  His bat should make him an extremely valuable commodity as long as that remains the case.

To pull back the curtain a bit on my own draft process, this wound up being as predictable of a first round as I can recall.  Since I had the ninth pick, I had exactly nine guys who I had settled on as potential selections.  As it turns out, only Henderson remained from that list when my pick came up, which made my decision pretty easy.  While I didn’t map out exactly which team I expected to take which player, not one of the first round selections was even remotely surprising to me.

Now it is time to dive into the season preview.  I’m actually hoping to get the first part out later tonight, or tomorrow at the latest.  So be on the lookout for that!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Diamond Dogs, Draft, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners | No Comments »

Judgement Day Finally Arrives

December 13th, 2022 by Kevin

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Well, my lack of ambition when it comes to writing has struck again. We are so far removed from awards season that most of the marquee free agents have already found homes before I ever got around to finishing the DTBL awards announcements. With apologies to Aaron Judge, who had truly one of the best seasons in DTBL history and deserves a comprehensive write-up, I’m going to mail this one in to get it over with. I’m sure to the surprise of absolutely no one, Mavericks outfielder Aaron Judge is the unanimous selection for the 2022 DTBL Most Valuable Player award.

As you all know, Judge’s 62 home run season broke Roger Maris’ American League home run record. In this league, that ranks seventh all time behind Barry Bonds’ MLB record 73 in 2001, a pair of Mark McGwire seasons, and three for Sammy Sosa. Besides the obvious PED suspicions surrounding those three specific players, Judge’s season also stands out based on the leaguewide environment in which he was competing. All six of those single season home run figures ahead of Judge’s took place from 1998 through 2001, which we now know was the peak of the steroid era. This season, Judge hit 16 more home runs than any other player while also hitting .311, 131 RBIs, 133 runs scored and even 16 stolen bases. His 12.2 Batting PAR was more than double the next highest player this year and is the highest in any season I’ve calculated (2005-present). While there have been some other players who have had seasons with comparable or better raw batting stats, factoring in the current hitting environment in baseball makes this Judge season one of, if not the, best in league history.

It would have been fishy if Judge had not won this award unanimously. Sure enough, he received all nine first place votes. Trea Turner came in second, his second straight top four finish. Paul Goldschmidt came in third, followed by Jose Ramirez and Pete Alonso rounding out the top five.

Click here to view the full voting results.

Sorry again for not giving Judge the full due he deserved. We’ll see if I can get back in a writing flow next year.

Posted in Awards, Mavericks | No Comments »

Verlander Completes Comeback

November 23rd, 2022 by Kevin

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When Justin Verlander underwent Tommy John surgery after just one start in 2020, it felt like it could be the end of the road for one of this generation’s greatest pitchers.  While many pitchers have successfully returned from UCL surgery, most weren’t 37+ years old at the time.  After missing almost all of the 2020 season and all of 2021, Verlander returned this season as a slightly different pitcher, but as good as ever.  He helped lead a rejuvenated Moonshiners pitching staff to their first ever DTBL Championship.  In a year of countless great pitching performances, Verlander was quite clearly the best.  In a unanimous decision, Justin Verlander is the 2022 DTBL Cy Young award winner, earning the award for the third time in his career.

Verlander’s comeback season was quite magical.  The 39 year old defied odds to put up one of the best seasons of his career, which is saying something since he had already authored some of the best seasons in league history.  His ERA and WHIP tell most of the story.  His 1.75 ERA ranks sixth all time while his 0.83 WHIP is the fourth lowest single season mark in DTBL history.  Both marks easily led the league this season and were personal bests as well.  His 18 wins also led the league this year, but doesn’t quite stack up with historical records due to the modern suppressed pitcher win environment.  185 strikeouts is an impressive number, but was not near the league leaders and highlights a changed approach for Verlander in which he no longer dominates simply by not allowing hitters to put the ball in play.  Verlander’s 14.8 Pitching PAR led the league by over 2 points and is the eighth highest mark since 2005.  He now holds three of the top 8 figures in that stat’s single season leaderboard.

The Moonshiners are the third DTBL team for which Verlander has starred.  Originally drafted in the second round by the Demigods way back in 2007, he spent a dozen spectacular seasons with the Kings with whom he won four DTBL Championships and a pair of Cy Young awards.  Those two Cy Young campaigns (2011 and 2019) are on the short list of the greatest pitching seasons in league history.  He won 24 games while striking out 250 in 2011.  In 2019, he had a 0.80 WHIP with 300 strikeouts and a record Pitching PAR of 17.5.  Tommy John surgery ultimately ended his run with the Kings as he was dropped from the league roster while recovering from surgery in 2021.  The Moonshiners made him a second round selection for the second time in his career when they picked him with the 17th overall pick in this season’s draft.  That proved to be quite the steal for the Moonshiners.  Verlander joined Alek Manoah and Yu Darvish to make up the league’s best starting pitching trio.  Their championship gives Verlander a smooth five DTBL rings to go along with three Cy Young awards.  This is the second straight season in which a pitcher has won his third Cy Young, following Verlander’s former Tigers and Kings teammate Max Scherzer turning that trick last year.

Verlander’s gaudy numbers made him the obvious choice for this award.  He received all nine first place votes to become the unanimous choice for this award, totaling 90 points.  That is definitely not to say there weren’t other great pitchers this season though.  In one of the most under-the-radar dominant seasons in recent memory, Diamond Dogs righty Sandy Alcantara put himself into the company of the league’s elite pitchers.  Perhaps most impressive was his 228.2 innings pitched, which was 26 more than any other pitcher.  Oh, and he also struck out 207 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.  Alcantara was the only pitcher besides Verlander to appear on every ballot.  He received three second place votes and a total of 41 points.  Next comes what might be the most anticipated aspect of this vote:  where will Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah rank following their narrow Rookie of the Year competition?  Well, turns out they flipped for this award.  Rookie of the Year runner-up, Moonshiners young hurler Manoah finishes third for the Cy Young in his debut season.  His 2.24 ERA and 0.99 WHIP were incredible for such a young pitcher.  He received a pair of second place votes and a total of 31 points.  Right behind him is Rookie of the Year winner, Choppers fireballer Cease.  Cease received three second place votes, but was left off three ballots, which ultimately caused him to fall three points behind Manoah with 28.  For the record, nobody swapped the order between Manoah and Cease on their Rookie of the Year and Cy Young ballots.  It was just a matter of how those points were distributed.  One other pitcher received a second place vote, that being Cougars ace Corbin Burnes.  Burnes finished second in the league with 243 strikeouts.  He is the only pitcher to rack up 200+ strikeouts with a sub 3.00 ERA each of the past two seasons.  Burnes finished in fifth place in the vote with 13 points.  A total of 10 different pitchers received Cy Young votes.

Click here to view the full voting results.

It’s looking like I won’t get around to announcing the 2022 DTBL Most Valuable Player until early next week. There probably isn’t too much suspense surrounding who will win that award anyway though.

Posted in Awards, Moonshiners | No Comments »

Rookie Cease Fire

November 21st, 2022 by Kevin

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Starting pitchers dominated the first couple of rounds of the 2022 DTBL Draft.  Seven starters were chosen in the first twelve picks, six of them having DTBL rookie eligibility.  While a couple of them had disappointing seasons due to injuries and/or underachievement, this will still go down as one of the best rookie pitching classes in recent memory.  Three of those pitchers, in particular, were impactful contributors to their teams and wound up finishing at the top of the rookie of the year vote.  In one of the tightest votes imaginable, Choppers right handed hurler Dylan Cease is the 2022 DTBL Rookie of the Year.

Cease took a bit of a circuitous route to this award.  First, while he obviously was a DTBL rookie this season, it was not his first season in the league’s player pool.  After making his much anticipated MLB debut in the summer of 2019, he was added to the league for 2020, but went undrafted prior to that pandemic shortened campaign.  Late in the season, the Choppers took a flyer on him as a free agent signing, but did not put him on their major league roster.  Because of his somewhat pedestrian numbers that year, leading the American League in walks without a terribly impressive strikeout total, he was released by the Choppers and then dropped from the league for the 2021 season.  2021 was his true breakout season, significantly reigning in the walks while nearly doubling his strikeout rate, making him a hot commodity for the 2022 draft.

The Choppers took Cease with the ninth pick of the first round this year.  He proceeded to build upon that strong 2021 season with an even better 2022.  His ERA hovered around 2.00 most of the summer before settling to an extremely impressive 2.20.  He actually led MLB in walks. But despite that, his hit suppression was so strong that he still finished with an excellent 1.11 WHIP.  He won 14 games and led all rookies with 227 strikeouts.  Only three other pitchers recorded more strikeouts this season.  The Choppers led the league in pitching points and Cease was the primary reason for that.  He led the staff in wins, strikeouts and ERA among qualified pitchers.  It was all the Choppers could have hoped for in solidifying their staff.  Cease, along with fellow rookie Logan Gilbert, should give the Choppers a formidable pitching staff for quite some time to come.

This Rookie of the Year award was hotly contested.  Cease was hardly the only rookie pitcher to have a season worthy of the award.  And the vote reflected that.  Cease received five of the nine first place votes cast.  On the other four ballots, he was ranked second.  Meanwhile, Moonshiners pitcher Alek Manoah, who was picked two spots before Cease in the draft, received the other four first place tallies and was placed second on all of the other ballots.  Manoah won two more games than Cease and had a better WHIP, while Cease had more strikeouts and an ever so slight edge in ERA.  Manoah also had a slight edge in PAR (11.7 vs. 10.4).  So this was a tough call for voters.  In the end, Cease’s 78 points put him three ahead of Manoah’s 75.  Both figure to be candidates for the Cy Young award as well, so it will be interesting to see how they stack up in that vote.  Yet another starting pitcher came in third in the vote.  Komodos lefty Shane McClanahan was possibly the leading candidate for this award before being knocked out by injury for a bit in the late summer.  He still managed to strike out 194 with a 2.54 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP.  McClanahan was the third and final player to appear on all nine ballots, receiving five third place votes for a total of 35 points.  Finally, we have a hitter in the mix with Jackalope outfielder Adolis Garcia finishing in the fourth spot.  Garcia led all rookies with a 5.7 Batting PAR.  He hit an impressive 27 home runs with 25 stolen bases.  Garcia received the other four third place votes that didn’t go to McClanahan and finished with 28 points.  Rounding out the top five is another starting pitcher.  Darkhorses first round selection Logan Webb also lived up to the rookie hype with 15 wins and a 2.90 ERA.  Webb compiled 10 points in the vote to finish in fifth place.

Click here to view the full voting results.

I haven’t figured out the exact schedule for the announcement of the other two awards, but am hoping to do both before the end of this week.  It seems unlikely the vote for either will be as close as this one, but we shall see!

Posted in Awards, Choppers | No Comments »

Moonshiners Break Through

November 5th, 2022 by Kevin

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Almost right from the start, the 2022 DTBL season had a different feel to it.  The traditional powers were struggling while the top half of the standings was filled with teams who had either never won a championship or were experiencing decades long droughts.  While the defending champion Kings did make a late push into contention, it remained a year for the upstarts.  What also looked different about this season compared to most in the recent past is that it appeared a bunch of teams would be in contention until the very end.  Ultimately, that didn’t prove to be the case though.  The Moonshiners stood head and shoulders above the rest, besting the rest of the league by 9 1/2 points.  A franchise perhaps most commonly known for never being terrible, but also never being great, has written a new story.  For the first time in franchise history, Mike’s Moonshiners are the DTBL Champions.

For the past couple years, the Moonshiners built a solid roster that could compete in the upper echelon of the league, but couldn’t quite put it all together.  In the pandemic shortened 2020 season, they finished in third place thanks to one of the league’s best pitching staffs, but a middling offense kept them from being a serious contender.  Then in 2021, it was exactly the opposite as they had the best offense in the league, but an incredibly disappointing pitching staff dropped them to a fourth place finish.  This year, they were able to keep that elite offense in tact while drastically improving the pitching staff, finishing second and fourth respectively in batting and pitching points.

Reigning DTBL MVP Vladimir Guerrero Jr had another fantastic season in ’22.  However, it was two other teammates who led the way for the Moonshiners offense.  Outfielders Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker were two of the most well-rounded players in the league.  Ohtani hit 34 homers with 95 RBIs and 11 stolen bases.  Meanwhile, Tucker hit 30 home runs while driving in 107 with 25 steals.  He was the only player in the league to reach the 30 HR and 25 SB milestones.  In a world in which Aaron Judge didn’t exist, he and Ohtani would probably both be MVP candidates.  Another key contributor in the power and speed categories was catcher Daulton Varsho.  Getting a 27 HR and 16 SB campaign from a backstop is a huge bonus.  Perhaps the most pleasant surprise in the Moonshiners lineup was shortstop Amed Rosario who started to live up to some of his early career hype with easily the best year of his career.  What is interesting about all of the players mentioned here is that they were all holdovers from last year’s squad.  They were able to keep it together without any major contributions from newcomers.

The pitching staff was a much different story.  They doubled their pitching point total from a year ago, thanks in large part to a pair of newcomers.  As expected, the 2022 DTBL Draft class proved to be very strong on pitching.  Most of the 10 starting pitchers drafted in the first two rounds lived up to or exceeded expectations.  But the Moonshiners may have gotten both of the top two achievers with their first two picks.  First round pick, seventh overall, Alek Manoah will be one of the top contenders for Rookie of the Year.  He won 16 games with a 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 180 strikeouts.  Those are numbers of an ace, yet he wasn’t the top dog on this staff.  That was second round pick, 39 year old veteran Justin Verlander.  After missing almost all of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, he returned in a slightly different form, but arguably better than ever.  His 1.75 ERA is the sixth best single season mark in league history and the lowest since Jacob deGrom in 2018.  His 0.829 WHIP ranks fourth all-time, but one of the three marks ahead of him is his own ’19 campaign with the Kings when he posted a 0.803 WHIP.  Additionally, Verlander won 18 games with 185 strikeouts.  He has an excellent chance of winning his third Cy Young award.  While newcomers Manoah and Verlander gave the Moonshiners exactly what they needed, one holdover was right up there with them as well.  Yu Darvish had maybe his best season since his rookie year, with 16 wins, a team high 197 strikeouts and a sub 1.00 WHIP.  No team in the league could come close to matching that trio at the top of the rotation.  Finally, while the bullpen as a whole was not a strength, Edwin Diaz was a huge boon to the staff in not only saves (32), but also ERA (1.31), WHIP (0.84) and a ridiculous 118 strikeouts in just 62 innings.

The Moonshiners appeared to be one of the top contenders for the title right from the start of the season.  By mid-June they had moved into the top three and would never fall lower than that.  For a couple months in the summer, a handful of teams were swapping spots at the top of the standings on a nearly daily basis.  But by the end of July, the Moonshiners had taken over first place for good.  In the end, it didn’t wind up being particularly close.  A late summer run by the Kings bumped them into second place, but they were never a serious threat in September.  What was mostly a positive season for the Demigods, Komodos and Choppers saw each of them fall double digits behind the Moonshiners when it was all said and done.

2022 was the Moonshiners 24th season as a member of the DTBL.  Prior to this year, they had finished somewhere between second and seventh place in all 23 seasons.  They had not finished higher than third since 2008.  And only once had they ever finished within single digits of the champion, in the crazy 2012 season which saw them finish fourth despite only being 1 1/2 points out.  So the ease by which they won the title this year means the Moonshiners have still really only been part of that one competitive championship race.  But I think they will settle for an easy victory.  Congrats to Mike and the Moonshiners!

Posted in Moonshiners | No Comments »

2022 DTBL All-Stars

July 14th, 2022 by Kevin

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Next week, the 28th installment of the DTBL All-Star Game will take place, with the Jackalope hosting the game for the third time.  Last year, the American Division ended the National’s four game winning streak and will try to create a streak of their own.  On paper, they would seem favorites to do just that.  Three of the top four title contending teams have players making up the American roster.  But there is no shortage of talent on the National squad either.

Nearly half of the All-Star rosters consist of players who will be making their first DTBL All-Star appearance.  21 to be exact.  This exceeds last year’s total by one, which is actually quite surprising since last year followed a 2020 season in which there was no All-Star Game for league newcomers to participate in.  Among the first timers are both of the guys who will start the game on the mound:  Komodos’ rookie Shane McClanahan and Demigods’ Joe Musgrove.

Mike Trout returns to the All-Star Game after missing the roster for the first time in his career a year ago.  This will be his ninth appearance.  Kenley Jansen, Justin Verlander and Paul Goldschmidt are on rosters for the seventh time in their careers.  Goldschmidt is making his first appearance since 2018.

I think we all do a very good job picking these All-Stars, so I wouldn’t say anyone got snubbed.  But a few of the more notable players who did not make the rosters include Dylan Cease, Tony Gonsolin, Luis Robert and Jazz Chisholm.

Here are the 2022 DTBL All-Stars.

 

American Division

Starters:

  • Pitcher – Shane McClanahan, Komodos (1st All-Star appearance)
  • Catcher - Alejandro Kirk, Choppers (1st)
  • First Base - Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope (7th)
  • Second Base - Whit Merrifield, Choppers (4th)
  • Third Base - Jose Ramirez, Komodos (3rd)
  • Shortstop – Trea Turner, Diamond Dogs (4th)
  • Outfield - Yordan Alvarez, Komodos (2nd)
  • Outfield - Shohei Ohtani, Moonshiners (2nd)
  • Outfield - Kyle Tucker, Moonshiners (1st)

Reserves:

  • Catcher - Daulton Varsho, Moonshiners (1st)
  • First Base - Pete Alonso, Choppers (1st)
  • Third Base - Rafael Devers, Moonshiners (3rd)
  • Shortstop - Dansby Swanson, Jackalope (1st)
  • Outfield - Kyle Schwarber, Choppers (1st)
  • Outfield - Adolis Garcia, Jackalope (1st)
  • Pitcher - Sandy Alcantara, Diamond Dogs (1st)
  • Pitcher - Justin Verlander, Moonshiners (7th)
  • Pitcher – Gerrit Cole, Jackalope (5th)
  • Pitcher - Alek Manoah, Moonshiners (1st)
  • Relief Pitcher - Emmanuel Clase, Choppers (1st)
  • Relief Pitcher - Edwin Diaz, Moonshiners (2nd)
  • Relief Pitcher - Josh Hader, Diamond Dogs (4th)
  • Relief Pitcher - Luis Severino, Jackalope (2nd)

National Division

Starters:

  • Pitcher - Joe Musgrove, Demigods (1st)
  • Catcher - Willson Contreras, Demigods (3rd)
  • First Base - C.J. Cron, Demigods (1st)
  • Second Base - Tommy Edman, Darkhorses (1st)
  • Third Base – Manny Machado, Mavericks (5th)
  • Shortstop - Francisco Lindor, Demigods (2nd)
  • Outfield - Mookie Betts, Kings (4th)
  • Outfield - Bryce Harper, Darkhorses (4th)
  • Outfield - Aaron Judge, Mavericks (4th)

Reserves:

  • Catcher - J.T. Realmuto, Darkhorses (2nd)
  • First Base - Freddie Freeman, Demigods (6th)
  • Third Base - Austin Riley, Kings (1st)
  • Shortstop - Trevor Story, Cougars (2nd)
  • Outfield - Mike Trout, Mavericks (9th)
  • Outfield - Randy Arozarena, Kings (2nd)
  • Pitcher - Max Fried, Demigods (1st)
  • Pitcher - Corbin Burnes, Cougars (1st)
  • Pitcher - Carlos Rodon, Cougars (1st)
  • Pitcher - Zack Wheeler, Kings (2nd)
  • Relief Pitcher - Kenley Jansen, Darkhorses (7th)
  • Relief Pitcher - David Bednar, Demigods (1st)
  • Relief Pitcher - Scott Barlow, Cougars (1st)
  • Relief Pitcher - Taylor Rogers, Darkhorses (1st)

All-Stars per team:

  • 7 – Demigods, Moonshiners
  • 5 – Choppers, Darkhorses, Jackalope
  • 4 – Cougars, Kings
  • 3 – Diamond Dogs, Komodos, Mavericks

 

Charlie and I are the managers for the American and National Divisions respectively on the strength of our top two finishes a year ago.  We were responsible for breaking all ties in the vote and selecting the 23rd and final player for each roster.  Those 23rd player selections were Rafael Devers and Austin Riley.  Here are the full voting results.  One person did not vote, so players who received nine votes were unanimous selections.

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