Surprised by the Darkhorses quick start? Don’t think it can possibly last? Well, if history tells us anything about the Darkhorses, it’s that they bounce back rather quickly from rock bottom. 2012 was the third time in franchise history that the Darkhorses finished in last place. After finishing at the bottom in 2003, the Darkhorses jumped up to a third place finish in 2004, which at the time was their highest finish by a wide margin. Three years later, they made the ultimate jump in winning their first DTBL title (by 12 points) a year after finishing dead last. That kick-started four straight championship seasons. If the first three weeks of this season are any indication, the Darkhorses appear to be in the process of another remarkable turnaround.
Nobody wins a championship in April, but getting off to a good start is very important, and is especially rewarding for a team coming out of the abyss. Pretty much anything that could have gone wrong for the Darkhorses the last two years did. They have been decimated by injuries and have seen some of their star players fade into mediocre contributors at best. But this is a new year with new opportunities.
What makes the Darkhorses quick start especially impressive is that they haven’t exactly been a model of perfect health this year either. Chris Carpenter may never pitch again, which forced the Darkhorses to waive him before the season started. Draft pick Jonny Venters was also released early because of arm trouble. Ryan Madson, Hanley Ramirez and Brian McCann are yet to make their 2013 debuts. Aramis Ramirez and Aaron Hill hit the DL shortly after the season began. So from a health standpoint, it appears to be more of the same for the Darkhorses. But fortunately for them, the guys who are in uniform are putting up some impressive numbers.
The Darkhorses roster doesn’t exactly blow you away with players off to white hot starts. But their two most recent first round picks have been the biggest reason for the team’s quick start. Matt Moore is starting to show why the Darkhorses spent their first pick of 2011 on him. He has already won four games with a miniscule 1.04 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, this year’s first overall pick, Bryce Harper, continues to live up to lofty expectations. He is hitting a smooth .366 with seven home runs.
Some other key contributors include newcomers Todd Frazier, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Ernesto Frieri and Tom Wilhelmsen. Basically their entire 2013 draft class. Some regression is likely, but so far, they have been getting great performances out of just about all of their picks.
Three hold-over players deserve mentioning: Adrian Gonzalez, Tim Lincecum and Jacoby Ellsbury. Gonzalez and Lincecum may not be quite the same caliber players they were a few years back, but at least they are helping the team again. Ellsbury appears to be healthy this year and is leading the league in stolen bases.
The Darkhorses currently lead the league by ten points. The Kings are the only team within 23 points of them. So yes, it is very early. But the Darkhorses are setting a strong pace. They have 41 1/2 batting points and 41 pitching points, so it has been a full team effort thus far. Usually, a bunch of teams exchange first place through the first month of the season. But the Darkhorses have held that top spot virtually the whole time. I believe the Kings are the only other team that has been in first place since the first week of the season, and that was a brief stay.
The Darkkhorses fast start has been impressive, but not terribly surprising given the franchise’s history. Let’s see if they can keep it up.
Last year, Marc provided some very interesting team previews based on stats from multiple projection systems. I have decided to do something similar this year, however, due to time constraints, I only used a single set of projections: ZiPS. I’m not an expert on these different projection models, so I have no idea if ZiPS was the best choice, but that’s what I went with. ZiPS does not do saves projections (or if they do, it isn’t available on FanGraphs), so I used Steamer Projections for that category only. I could write a very lengthy article on why these stat projections aren’t the greatest for predicting fantasy results, so take all of these projections with several grains of salt. However, I also don’t like to make enemies by publishing my own predictions, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking.
Here is a brief explanation of my methodology. I used the projections for all 28 players on each team’s roster to compute team totals in all 10 of the categories we use. However, I didn’t want to leave it at that since there are a bunch of differences in the composition of the extra five players on each roster. For example, it would figure that teams with a bench full of hitters would outpace teams with mostly extra pitchers in the offensive counting categories (HR, RBI, R, SB). So what I decided to do was to multiply the team totals in those four categories by the ratio of 14 over the total number of offensive players on the roster. Theoretically, this would mean I’m only counting full season stats for 14 players, the regular DTBL batting roster size. I did this rather than simply subtracting players who figure to spend part/most of the season on the bench because I didn’t want to make any personal predictions on roster moves. The biggest flaw in doing it this way is that every player contributes to the team projections, even if they aren’t expected to see much playing time. But I think this is better than adding full season projections for every single player.
My methodology was slightly different for pitchers. Doing it the same way as I did for hitters would have been slightly problematic because it would cause significant differences between teams with extra starting pitchers vs. teams with only extra relievers. So instead, I calculated what the average number of innings pitched was for each DTBL team in 2012 (1,239) and assumed each team would come close to that number again this year. So the ratio used to multiply the counting categories (W, SV, K) was 1,239 divided by the team’s projected innings total. The biggest flaw here is with teams that plan on using an extra starting pitcher in a RP slot. It is safe to assume those teams will accumulate more innings, but these projections assume the team IP totals are all the same. So that is another caveat to consider when diagnosing your team’s projections.
Despite the flaws, I do believe these projections can be useful in identifying relative strengths and weaknesses of each team. Perhaps I will share the full projections when I finish with the team previews. In these previews, I will provide the team’s projected ranking in each category as well as the overall predicted order of finish. Then I will give some of my own thoughts about the team, and perhaps explain some instances where I feel the projections are wrong. I will go in the reverse order of the predicted standings, doing a few teams each day for the next few days. So, without further ado, here is the team projected to finish in last place…
Greg’s Gators
Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)
Batting Average – 4th (7th)
Home Runs – 10th (10th)
Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
Stolen Bases – 2nd (10th)
Earned Run Average – 10th (4th)
WHIP Ratio – 7th (3rd)
Wins – 6th (9th)
Saves – 1st (2nd-T)
Strike Outs – 9th (6th)
Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
Total Pitching Points – 8th-T (4th)
Total Points – 10th (9th)
Summary:
Obviously, nobody wants to be last in a projection. However, despite the 10th place prediction, there are encouraging signs for the Gators. First, they just completed their best draft in many years, acquiring some very good, young talent with players like Yoenis Cespedes, Will Middlebrooks and Andrelton Simmons. Next, they are projected to finish with 41 points, which would be an improvement over last season. They have had the worst offense in the league three years running, but there is a decent chance that streak will stop this year. Almost all of the offensive players they drafted this year will be upgrades over their counterparts from 2012. The pitching projections are a little surprising because the Gators had a very underrated staff a year ago. They still have the deepest stable of closers in the league. Their rotation is a big question mark, but there is potential to meet or exceed last year’s numbers. I think this will be a much improved Gators squad, even if the place of finish doesn’t necessarily reflect that.
Dom’s Demigods
Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)
Batting Average – 3rd (2nd)
Home Runs – 9th (5th)
Runs Batted In – 8th (4th)
Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
Stolen Bases – 1st (7th)
Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
WHIP Ratio – 8th (9th)
Wins – 2nd (8th)
Saves – 10th (5th-T)
Strike Outs – 10th (9th)
Total Batting Points – 4th-T (4th)
Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
Total Points – 9th (7th)
Summary:
Last year, the Demigods championship hopes were sabotaged by a weak pitching staff. If these projections are to be believed, that could be the case again this year. However, this is one team where my methodology for computing the pitching stats was harmful because it appears they will use a sixth starting pitcher (Brett Myers), meaning their wins and strike out totals should be higher than projected. Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto form a pretty solid top three, but the rest of the staff will need to exceed expectations. They only have one closer, Brandon League, who could lose his job any minute. So saves appears to be a write off category. Offensively, the Demigods have a solid squad, but they need to stay a lot healthier than they did last year. Look for huge seasons out of Matt Kemp, Evan Longoria and Buster Posey. Freddie Freeman is a major breakout candidate too. 9th place would be a pretty big disappointment considering how much talent is on this roster.
David’s Darkhorses
Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)
Batting Average – 5th (5th)
Home Runs – 7th (8th)
Runs Batted In – 9th (7th)
Runs Scored – 7th (8th)
Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (8th)
Earned Run Average – 8th (10th)
WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
Wins – 9th (10th)
Saves – 3rd (10th)
Strike Outs – 2nd (10th)
Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
Total Pitching Points – 7th (10th)
Total Points – 8th (10th)
Summary:
It has been two long years since the Darkhorses 4-peat. Last year in particular, was one long nightmare in which everything that could have possibly gone wrong did. They nearly set the low water mark for total points and finished dead last in all five pitching categories. There is no way to go but up from there. And this team is a safe bet to do just that. But the injuries are already starting to mount up, starting with the news that Chris Carpenter may never pitch again, which came out not long after our roster cuts were made. Relief pitchers Ryan Madson and Jonny Venters are also headed to the DL to start the year. And on offense, Brian McCann and Hanley Ramirez will miss significant time to begin the season. Their healthy pitchers are mostly high strike out guys who hope to improve their ERA and WHIP numbers. A strong comeback year for Tim Lincecum would go a long way towards fixing this team. I’m not sure what to think about the Darkhorses offense, but we saw last year how quickly one young superstar can turn around an entire squad (Mike Trout, Mavericks). The Darkhorses hope to get a similar boost from Bryce Harper. He just may be up to the task. Hopefully, these early injuries won’t bury the Darkhorses before they ever get started, but I think they will certainly improve upon last year’s disaster.
That’s it for tonight. Tomorrow, I’ll run down at least three more teams and finish things up on Monday and Tuesday.
Enjoy tomorrow night’s MLB opener and have a happy Easter!
Who should the Darkhorses have picked with the first selection in the 2013 DTBL Draft? That’s a clown question, bro. With one of the clearest cut decisions in recent memory, the Darkhorses selected 20 year old outfielder Bryce Harper. The Nationals young phenom burst onto the scene last summer at the ripe age of 19 and proceeded to win the National League Rookie of the Year award. He bounced back from a mid-summer slump to tear the league apart on his way to a .270 average with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases. The home run total was the second most by a teenager in MLB history.
A year after most of the league made the mistake of allowing Mike Trout to slip to the second round, the Darkhorses ensured that the same wouldn’t happen this time around. Of course, Harper has much higher expectations heading into this season than Trout did a year ago since he has a roster spot locked up and is even expected to hit third in the lineup for one of the top World Series contenders. Although both are legitimate five tool players, Harper does have a slightly different skill set than Trout. Harper is projected to be the bigger power threat while Trout has unmatched speed on the bases and in the outfield. The sky is the limit for Harper, and his bust potential seems extremely low.
Harper is only the second player to become a first overall selection in both the MLB and DTBL drafts. Alex Rodriguez is the other, which makes it interesting that Harper is entering the league at the exact same time as ARod’s 16 year career with the Kings is coming to an end. I’m sure the Darkhorses would be happy to get at least a decade and a half of service out of Harper. I’m 99% positive that Harper was the youngest player to ever be drafted by a DTBL team in the first round (maybe any round), an honor he held for less than 24 hours (more on that later). The Darkhorses are looking to bounce back from two straight disappointing, injury-riddled seasons. Harper has the potential to quickly accelerate the rebuilding process, much like Trout did for the Mavericks a year ago.
Last year, the Gators had the tall order of trying to rebuild without the benefit of a first or second round pick. This year, they held onto those picks and wisely used them to pick up a few of the best young players in the draft. With the second overall pick, they selected Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes who made an immediate impact in his first big league season, hitting several prodigious home runs early in the season. He somewhat quietly proceeded to have an outstanding season that surely would have earned him a Rookie of the Year nod if it weren’t for some guy named Trout. Cespedes slugged 23 home runs with 82 RBI and 16 steals. Like Harper, he has big time power potential with the ability to add a bunch of stolen bases too.
If Kris Medlen can come anywhere close to matching his 2012 numbers, the Cougars might suddenly have one of the league’s top pitching staffs. Medlen, a Tommy John surgery survivor, started last season in the bullpen, but then became nearly unhittable after moving into the rotation. He won 10 games with a miniscule 1.57 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. The Cougars selected him with the third pick in the draft. The Demigods then followed with another starting pitcher, Yu Darvish. Along with Cespedes, Darvish was the other key foreign import to the big leagues last season. He displayed overpowering stuff, striking out 221 hitters in just 190 innings. He should help the Demigods recover from a season that was largely derailed by a shaky pitching staff. The Choppers took the Cubs young first baseman, Anthony Rizzo, with the fifth pick. Rizzo had been a highly touted prospect for a number of years, before finally breaking through with a solid season for his third MLB organization. Rizzo figures to be a centerpiece in the Cubs lineup for some time to come.
For the most part, the top five picks were fairly clear cut. I know those five players were the top five on my draft board, and I suspect I’m not alone. But I felt there was a significant drop-off in available talent after those five. Which was kind of fitting because the next five teams all came within an eyelash of winning the championship last year anyway.
For the second straight year, the Jackalope were the first team to select a non-DTBL rookie. With the sixth pick, they took second baseman Danny Espinosa, who spent the last two seasons with the Kings. Espinosa spent almost the entire ’12 season on the Kings bench, but only because he was at a log jammed position. He actually had a very solid year and provides significant power and speed for a middle infielder. He seems to be getting better each year too. Next, the Moonshiners selected closer Fernando Rodney, the obvious #1 relief pitcher on the board. Rodney re-emerged as an elite closer for the Rays, saving 48 games with a ridiculous 0.60 ERA. Seventh is the earliest a relief pitcher has been selected since 2010. But the Moonshiners were in desperate need of a second closer and only had two picks in the first rounds with which to acquire one.
For the fourth straight years, the Mavericks had multiple first round picks. This time, they didn’t acquire the second one until just before they were on the clock with the eighth pick. They dealt one member of their stable of first basemen, Ike Davis, to the Kings for the ninth overall pick. So with two consecutive picks, the Mavericks did what has become their trademark: they selected two young prospects, second baseman Jurickson Profar and third baseman Manny Machado. Both have big upside, but Machado figures to make a more immediate impact since Profar is temporarily without a position in Texas, behind Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler. Of course, this is a similar situation that Mike Trout was in a year ago. Profar just turned 20 a few weeks ago, which is notable for a couple reasons. First, I believe it makes him the youngest player in DTBL history (he’s a few months younger than Harper). Next, he is the first DTBL player to have been born after the inaugural DTBL Draft in January of 1993. So he’s actually younger than this league! (Damn, we’re getting old)
For the second straight year, the Kings used the first round to try to fill their gaping hole at first base. But this time, they did so by trading their pick for Ike Davis. Davis got off to a horrific start in 2012, due in part to his slow recovery from valley fever, which he contracted during spring training. But he rebounded in the second half of the season and turned into one of the leading home run hitters after the break. He finished the season with 32 bombs. Finally, the Naturals used the last pick of the first round to re-acquire catcher Victor Martinez. Martinez missed all of last season recovering from a torn ACL suffered over the previous winter. The Naturals were clearly reluctant to let him go after holding him on the roster for the entire season. However, when the opportunity came to pick him up again, they jumped all over it. Although his catching days may be over, he will likely produce stellar numbers at a position that is extremely difficult to fill.
For the most part, there were few surprises in the first round. And I honestly can’t criticize any of the picks. The top five teams went with the best players available, while the second half of the round featured last year’s contenders fill holes and/or proceed with their successful draft strategies.
The pace of the draft has been great so far too. We’re already into the fifth round at the four day mark, so I’d say we are well ahead of schedule. Keep up the good work!
During the 2011 regular season, there was not a single trade completed in the DTBL. This year, things were back to normal with a handful of deals going down. This was not a surprising development since, unlike last year, more than half of the teams were still in title contention by the time the trade deadline arrived earlier this week. In total, five trades were completed. Three of them involved the Moonshiners, who are trying to make this the second consecutive season with a first time DTBL champion. Since I have not written about any of the these trades, I will recap them all right now, even the ones that were completed quite a while ago.
Mavericks/Darkhorses (June 6)
Mavericks get: RP Matt Capps, P Matt Harrison
Darkhorses get: P Ricky Romero, RP Daniel Bard
I don’t think it is too early to say this trade his been quite a disaster on both sides. The Mavericks made this deal to try to get themselves another closer, but Matt Capps got hurt very soon after this trade and is yet to record a save for his new team. Meanwhile, the key piece going the opposite direction, Ricky Romero, has continued his dreadful season. The Darkhorses other acquisition, Daniel Bard, is buried in the minors where he can’t throw strikes. It is unclear if he will ever be a viable MLB pitcher again. As it turns out, the only player in this trade who has had any sort of value is Matt Harrison. But he was only included because the Darkhorses needed to clear out a roster spot. The Mavericks immediately released him. The Moonshiners swooped in and signed him later and he has had a very productive season for them.
Mavericks/Gators (July 11)
Mavericks get: 2B Dan Uggla
Gators get: C Salvador Perez
As Greg can confirm, I was not happy when I saw the details of this trade. I thought it was a steal for the Mavericks, primarily because they were able to fill a glaring hole (Dee Gordon had just gone on the DL, leaving them short a middle infielder) without giving up a player that had much value to them. But with hindsight being 20/20, this was actually a pretty solid move for the Gators. Uggla is a batting average killer and isn’t even putting up particularly impressive power numbers anymore. In fact, since this trade was made, Perez has one more home run than Uggla. Perez is obviously a lot younger too, making him a better fit for the Gators future plans. That’s not to say this has become a bad trade for the Mavericks though. They had little use for Perez with Wieters and Santana anchoring their catching staff. Perhaps Uggla will go on one of his patented hot streaks before this season ends.
Moonshiners/Demigods (July 26)
Moonshiners get: RP Joe Nathan, 12th Round Pick
Demigods get: 2nd Round Pick
There was a lot of activity around the trade deadline involving closers, but this was the only deal that actually got done (not counting the Capps trade in June). Out of contention for this season, the Demigods had little use for a 37 year old closer. So they were able to get a second round pick for him. If you are wondering what type of player this could turn out to be for the Demigods, here are two names of players picked in this year’s second round: Mike Trout and Gio Gonzalez. Maybe they won’t get that lucky, but there is too much opportunity there for them to have passed on a deal like this. Meanwhile, this was the first sign that the Moonshiners are truly “all in” for 2012. They are up to 5th in saves with a great opportunity to pick up another point before the year is over.
Moonshiners/Kings (August 15)
Moonshiners get: C Miguel Montero, P Edwin Jackson
Kings get: P Dan Haren, 3B David Freese
This was probably the biggest trade made this season, in part because it was the only one involving two teams in the championship chase. In fact, to see two teams so close to each other in the standings make a trade this big this late in the season is quite rare. The Moonshiners needed to find a catcher after losing both of their regulars (J.P. Arencibia and Mike Napoli) to injuries. Not only were they able to find one, but they got an upper echelon receiver in Montero. The Kings could afford to deal him because they had two other good, young catchers on their roster (Jonathan LuCroy and Wilin Rosario). On the flip side, the Kings have been struggling to find effective starting pitching all season. In many ways, Haren fits right in with the rest of the underachieving staff. However, he probably has more upside than anyone in their rotation not named Verlander. Although this was an attempt to get better now, the bigger upside for the Kings may be in the future. Freese returns to his original DTBL team to fill a need at 3B, which has been a black hole since ARod got hurt. Jackson could wind up being a huge pickup for the Moonshiners too, even though he was probably considered the least valuable player in the deal.
Moonshiners/Darkhorses (August 15)
Moonshiners get: OF Alex Rios, 11th Round Pick
Darkhorses get: C Mike Napoli, 4th Round Pick
The last trade, completed within the last couple hours before the deadline, was what the Moonshiners hope to be the final piece of their puzzle. They acquired the red-hot Rios for an injured catcher and a draft pick swap. Earlier this year, nobody would have guessed that a Napoli/Rios swap would lead to the team acquiring Napoli also receiving the advantage in a draft pick exchange. But it has been a disappointing, and now injury hampered season for Napoli. He could be a key addition for the Darkhorses though as he is capable of supplying big time power from a very weak position. But for this season, Rios is obviously the player with more value. He is having a very productive season, following a truly dreadful 2011. The recent trend points to good seasons in even numbered years and poor seasons in odd years. So we’ll have to see what he provides the Moonshiners next year. But in the mean time, he could be a huge addition for the final month and a half of 2012.
Finally, I want to end with a follow up to my previous blog post, which focused on the Stephen Strasburg situation. I knew this was going to be a big story, but didn’t expect major features coming out from every corner of the sports world the last few weeks. It has been discussed on nearly every sports program and web site. What I find fascinating is that the people who seem to have the most to lose (short term) from a Strasburg shutdown (the Nationals, their fans, and the DC sports media) seem to be the only ones who actually support the shutdown. Meanwhile, the so-called experts outside of DC seem to be unanimously opposed to the shutdown. This is almost exactly the opposite of what I expected. Hearing Rob Dibble and Tim McCarver give dimwitted declarations of opposition to the shutdown actually has me reconsidering my position. Do I really want to be on their side of this argument?
We’re only in the last week of June, but I’m ready to declare that we have quite a pennant race brewing. At no point has any team in the league asserted its dominance, thus leaving us with a situation where seven out of the ten teams are in a very good position to win the championship. Those seven teams are all within 10 points of first place, with the top five separated by just four points. Somehow, the Mavericks have managed to hold the top spot most of the year, but it has been by the thinnest of margins at most times, including today when they are just 1/2 point clear of the Jackalope.
As we near the half way point of the season, I’m going to take a quick look at each of the ten teams, highlighting some of the key stories for each team. I will start with the three teams who are not currently in the thick of the race and then work my way up to the top of the standings.
Darkhorses
Only a year and a half removed from four consecutive championships, it would be fair to say things have gone downhill since then. While last year was a shocking disappointment for the Darkhorses, this season has been an absolute nightmare. Injuries have been the story of the league this season, but no team has had their season completely ruined by injuries like the Darkhorses. They sit in last place with just 18.5 points, so they are in serious jeopardy of breaking the league’s all time low water mark of 20 points since the league expanded to 10 teams in 1998. If you look at their roster, there is no way they should be this bad. Besides the injuries, incredibly disappointing seasons from Adrian Gonzalez and Tim Lincecum haven’t helped either. If those guys can turn it around and Chris Carpenter, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner return soon, maybe they can gain a little momentum and avoid a historically bad season.
Gators
Still a work in progress, and not really a threat this year, but things are looking up for the Gators. Their ridiculously bad offense from ’11 has improved a bit and their pitching staff is respectable. But there is still a lot of work to do. Their huge pre-draft trade with the Mavericks hasn’t really worked out. Nelson Cruz has been so-so and Mark Reynolds has provided virtually nothing. They could have used those picks to improve in other areas, but what’s done is done. The first draft pick they did make, Melky Cabrera in round three, has been a huge surprise, currently third in the league with a .355 average. The Gators appear to be headed for another high draft slot next season. With some exciting young players coming into the league again next year, maybe they will have an opportunity to grab one of them.
Demigods
The third team not currently in the title race is the Demigods. At the beginning of the year, they looked like a team ready to make a run at the championship. But like the Darkhorses, the Demigods have been sabotaged by injuries. One in particular: Matt Kemp. In April, Kemp appeared to be a shoe-in for his second straight DTBL MVP award and a possible Triple Crown. But since then, he has missed the better part of the last two months. Who knows what he will provide when he returns? But a healthy Kemp and Evan Longoria could get the Demigods back into contention.
Cougars
Although they are only in seventh place, this is the best Cougars team in a long time. They are just 9.5 points behind the Mavericks and could get even closer if a couple of their pitchers turn things around. Josh Hamilton has carried the offense, despite slowing down a bit of late. Jason Kipnis has been one of the biggest steals of the draft, providing big time power and speed at a weak second base position. Many were surprised when the Cougars passed on Stephen Strasburg with the first pick of the draft. That may not have been a wise decision, but the Cougars made up for it by grabbing his Nationals teammate Gio Gonzalez in the second round. Gonzalez’s numbers are pretty similar to Strasburg’s and you have to figure the Cougars would not have taken Gonzalez if they had gone with Strasburg in round one.
Choppers
The transformation of the Choppers has been quite remarkable. Last year they were all offense with a questionable pitching staff. This year, it is just the opposite. They are second in the league with 40 pitching points, but only have 20 batting points. One player is mostly responsible for the pitching turnaround: Chris Sale. Over the years, many teams have benefited from an extra starting pitcher in a relief pitching slot. But normally, that pitcher doesn’t put up All-Star caliber stats like Sale is doing this year. He’s keeping together a staff whose starting rotation is bandaged up with a bunch of free agent signings to fill in for other injured starters. The injuries to the Choppers rotation could be a huge problem in the upcoming weeks/months. But there is certainly reason to believe the offense will pick it up. Jose Bautista is heating up, now in a tie for the league lead in home runs. He could help the Choppers pick up some offensive points to move even closer to first place.
Kings
It is hard to say that a team four points out of first has been a huge disappointment, but to some degree, I think that can be said about the Kings. The pitching staff has been atrocious as a whole. They are ninth in the league in ERA and near the bottom in WHIP and wins too. Justin Verlander needs some help. Recently, the Kings have done a poor job of rotating their extra starting pitchers into the lineup. In the last eight days, they missed out on a one hit shutout by Ervin Santana and seven great innings from Edwin Jackson last night. If they could ever start picking the right five starting pitchers for a given week, they could be on to something. For the most part, the offense has been great, leading the league in batting points. But the lack of production from two Nationals, Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse, has been troubling. The Kings are still in pretty good shape despite being in fifth place though.
Naturals
Much of what I wrote about the Choppers also applies to the Naturals. They have transformed from an offensive juggernaut with a mediocre pitching staff to a team with a disappointing offense and the best pitching staff in the league. Matt Cain, Zack Greinke and David Price have been outstanding for the Naturals rotation. Jordan Zimmermann would be right there too if he would ever get run support and win some games. The Naturals have to be considered one of the most dangerous teams heading into the second half because you have to figure their offense will improve. Having said that, the recent injury to Troy Tulowitzki could be extremely costly. He’s expected to miss the next 6-8 weeks and they don’t have an obvious candidate to pick up the slack.
Moonshiners
The Moonshiners are perhaps the league’s most intriguing team right now. They have suffered some very costly injuries to their pitching staff, with the most devastating one coming this past week when Brandon Beachy was lost for the season with a torn UCL. Beachy was leading the league in ERA and had a sub 1.00 WHIP. But one free agent signing may have saved their season. Since joining the Moonshiners a month ago, R.A. Dickey has not allowed an earned run. Read that again. Dickey has a 0.00 ERA, 0.495 WHIP, four wins and 42 strike outs in just 34.1 innings with the Moonshiners. The 37 year old knuckleballer has been the league’s best story this year and may have a huge say in determining if the Moonshiners can win their first DTBL championship.
Jackalope
It really can’t get any tighter at the top of the standings. As of today, the defending champions sit one half point behind the Mavericks. Batting points: 35.5 for the Mavericks, 35.0 for the Jackalope. Pitching points: both have 33. So both teams are holding their own in batting and pitching. The Jackalope got off to a bit of a slow start, but ever since their two biggest stars, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun, have started to heat up, so has this team. I think they have to be considered the favorites at this point, especially if they are able to get anything out of Ryan Howard in the second half. Their dominating rotation from last year hasn’t been quite the same this season. But Felix Hernandez has been better of late, Cliff Lee will eventually win a game and Roy Halladay should provide he boost when he gets healthy. As long as they keep it close, I like their chances down the stretch.
Mavericks
This has been a pretty remarkable season for the Mavericks, following two consecutive eighth place finishes. Despite the incredible tightness of the race, they have managed to hold onto first place most of the year. Their strategy of stockpiling draft picks is paying off. Their pre-draft trade with the Gators may alter the course of this league for years to come. The two players they acquired with the draft picks they received in that trade: Stephen Strasburg and Mike Trout. Strasburg leads the league in strike outs and is not far behind in ERA, WHIP and wins too. What the Nationals decide to do with him when he reaches that magical 160 IP mark could have a dramatic impact on this league. I’ll probably write about this more when that date gets closer because I have a strong opinion on the matter. Meanwhile, I’ll be honest, I thought Trout was a bit of a gamble in the early second round because I wasn’t so sure the Angels would be able to make room for him this season. Boy was I wrong. He is hitting .351 and will probably be leading the league in stolen bases before June is over. If Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Jones keep hitting home runs at their current rates, the Mavericks are going to be tough to catch, despite all the teams nipping on their heels.
Memorial Day is usually a good point in the season to take stock in how the baseball season is going and examine where it may be headed. As usual, there are hitters and pitchers who are vastly exceeding expectations, and have done so for long enough to make you think it may not be a fluke. Some of those players are helping to put their DTBL teams at or near the top of the standings. However, there seems to be a much bigger factor in determining a team’s success (or lack there of) this season: injuries.
Almost daily, there is another key player going down to an injury, whether it be a minor day-to-day issue, or one that has the player headed to season ending surgery. We’ve had torn ACLs, torn UCLs, sprained knees, torn hamstrings, broken hands, blurred vision, chronic illness, you name it. It started in spring training when two closers were lost for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery (Naturals’ Joakim Soria, Jackalope Ryan Madson). Two DTBL first round draft picks are yet to play a game this season (Kings’ Michael Morse, Choppers’ Michael Pineda). It is never a good sign when two of the most mentioned names in baseball are Tommy John and Dr. James Andrews.
Even the previously indestructible players are falling victim to this plague. The surest thing in baseball, Choppers’ Mariano Rivera, tore his ACL while shagging fly balls. And just yesterday, the always reliable Roy Halladay (Jackalope) was lost for 6-8 weeks due to a lat strain. Halladay wasn’t the only ace to go down yesterday either. Jered Weaver (Moonshiners) was pulled from his start in the first inning with a back problem. Fellow Moonshiner starting pitcher Ted Lilly hit the DL as well, as did red hot Kings catcher Jonathan LuCroy who suffered the freakiest injury of the season, breaking his hand due to a falling suitcase in a hotel room.
In those last two paragraphs, I named nine different players, and that didn’t even begin to scratch the surface. Every DTBL team has been affected, some more than others. I probably need to take a closer look at each roster to see if this is still the case, but prior to this most recent string of injuries, there were three teams in particular who had been absolutely decimated: the Darkhorses, Choppers and Demigods. All three are around the double digit mark in total number of players who have spent time on the DL, including some very critical losses. I suspect the Moonshiners are moving close to this list as well after losing 40% of their rotation yesterday. The Darkhorses injury problems were so bad, for a while they were fielding a major league roster with at least three disabled players. The Choppers and Demigods minors are/were filled with virtually nothing but injured players.
The Mavericks have been in first place virtually the entire season. In large part, that is because they had been the healthiest team in the league. Until about a week ago, their only injured player was 12th round draft pick, and projected bench player, Lorenzo Cain. But now the Mavericks have joined the rest of the league after having lost Neftali Feliz and Austin Jackson. Still, they are in better shape than most. With the exception of two pre-season injuries (Madson and Ryan Howard), the Jackalope had been relatively healthy as well, which helped guide them past the Mavericks for a couple days last week. But now this Halladay injury could be a major problem for the defending champions.
On a positive note, these injuries have certainly restrained any one team from running out to a huge lead, keeping most of the league very much in the mix. Half of the league is within 10 points of first place and two others are within 20. So if any of these teams can get relatively healthy, there are plenty of points to be gained. But that “healthy” term seems inconceivable for some teams at this point.
It was suggested to me by one league member that we look into adding additional DL slot(s) to our rosters in the future. I am not necessarily opposed to this idea, but keep in mind that such a change would require a number of other adjustments as well, like the total number of players on the league roster and maybe a change to the free agent signing limit too. This is a conversation I’m willing to have though if the consensus is that change is needed. Obviously, no change will be made for this season though. In the mean time, hopefully some of this madness will come to an end and we’ll be able to determine a champion based on player performance rather than healthy body tallies.
Hopefully my next article will be about player(s) who are actually contributing to their DTBL squads!
AVG: C … HR: A … R: C … RBI: B … SB: B … W: A … ERA: F … WHIP: F … K: B … SV: A
Marc’s favorite draft pick: Sean Marshall, Round 12 – Mr. Irrelevant could be a gem with the injury to Ryan Madson
Jay’s favorite draft picks: Mike Moustakas, Round 3 / Paul Goldschmidt, Round 4 – A pair to tidy up the corners as well as provide some pop while Ryan Howard nurses his Achilles.
Overview: The Jackalope broke through last year from being a team with a great SP staff to simply a great team. The addition of Mike Stanton provided a much-needed power boost to move the Jackalope to the fourth-best offense and top overall team in the league in 2011.
The 2012 Jackalope are ready to pick up where the 2011 squad left off. Howie Kendrick (Round 1) and Chris Young (Round 2) were among the best veteran DTBL players in the draft pool. By drafting every RP with ties to the Reds, the Jackalope ensured they will get any save opportunity to emerge from the Queen City – unless the Red lose, of course.
Darkhorses
Projected Finish: Second
2011 Finish: Seventh
AVG: A … HR: D … R: B … RBI: C … SB: A … W: B … ERA: A … WHIP: C … K: C … SV: A
Marc’s favorite draft pick: Zack Cozart, Round 10 – seemed like a lot of publications were down on him following surgery on his non-throwing arm
Dave’s favorite draft pick: Matt Moore, Round 1 – An expected ace who could help drive the Darkhorses’ SP staff back to prominence; Moore and Strasburg stood a tier above the rest of the SP pool
Overview: After four consecutive DTBL titles (including one tie), the Darkhorses finally took a step back in 2011.
Other than in the first round, the 2012 draft saw the Darkhorses follow their regular blueprint of drafting more established players rather than splurging on DTBL rookies. Among the rookies drafted by the D’horses, Jordan Walden entered the year looking like one of the top up-and-coming firemen in the league.
(note: Injuries have taken a serious toll on the Darkhorses already this year, with the losses of Jacoby Ellsbury, Chris Carpenter and Brian Wilson)
You’ve heard all about the champion Jackalope. Now it’s time to take a look back at the 2011 season for the other nine teams. I’ve grouped them into three categories: the good, the bad and the ugly. These groups don’t necessarily relate to the order of finish, but how competitive the teams were compared to expectations. The three teams I identified as “good” all finished higher in the standings than they did a year ago and should feel like they are headed in the right direction. “Bad” isn’t really the right word for the second group, because two of the three teams actually finished near the top of the standings. Disappointing is a better way to describe them. Finally, the teams that fall into the “ugly” category would probably like to pretend 2011 never happened.
THE GOOD
Mike’s Moonshiners
The quickest team out of the gate, the Moonshiners led the league for a good part of the first quarter of the season. They stumbled a bit in early summer and never really recovered, finishing in third place. However, that was up two spots from a year ago and was their best finish since 2008. The improvement was almost entirely due to the pitching staff, which received a huge boost from the Jackalope trade which brought them ace pitcher and Cy Young candidate Jared Weaver. While I already mentioned how beneficial that trade was to the Jackalope, the impact was similar for the Moonshiners. Weaver turned their average pitching staff into one of the league’s best. He finished in the top five of the league in ERA, WHIP and wins. Meanwhile, the offense was carried by slugging first baseman Prince Fielder (38 HR, 120 RBI) and 30/30 man Ian Kinsler (32 HR, 30 SB). Now that the pitching staff has been fixed, the Moonshiners will look to improve their offense going into 2012. With the Jackalope winning their first title this year, the Moonshiners are now the longest tenured DTBL team without a title. They figure to have a good chance to change that next year.
Dom’s Demigods
The biggest jump in the standings was made by the Demigods. After finishing dead last a year ago, they managed to move into the top half of the standings with a fifth place finish in 2011. This is despite the fact that they got almost nothing out of their first overall pick (Buster Posey); same with his catching partner Joe Mauer. The rest of the offense was surprisingly good though, finishing in the top five in every category and leading the league in batting average. The indisputable MVP of the team was Matt Kemp, who hit .324 with 39 HR, 126 RBI, 115 R, 40 SB. He led the league in RBIs and was the only player to appear on the league leaderboard in all five categories. He even flirted with the NL Triple Crown until the final week of the season. The pitching staff was a bit of a disappointment, but overall, the Demigods appear to be headed in the right direction.
Charlie’s Thunder Choppers
Although they only wound up finishing one spot higher than a year ago (6th, up from 7th), this was a much better year for the Choppers. They were a title contender in the second half of the season for the first time in five years. They wound up finishing 16 1/2 points out of first, cutting almost half the deficit from a year ago (32 points). As I documented in an article a couple months ago, it was some recent first round draft picks that helped pump some more juice into the Choppers offense. Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson finished first and second in the league in home runs (43 and 41 respectively). Both are strong MVP candidates, while Bautista is even eligible for the DTBL Rookie of the Year award. Granderson led the league with 136 runs scored, the highest total since 2007. The Choppers boast another strong ROY candidate in closer Craig Kimbrel who saved 46 games in his first full MLB season. If the Choppers can add one or two more elite starting pitchers, they are another team to watch in 2012.
THE BAD
Nick’s Naturals
Okay, I admit it isn’t really fair to put the Naturals in a category labeled as “bad”, because they were definitely not that. But a defending champion almost always has its sights set on repeating, and the Naturals weren’t quite able to do that this year, finishing a distant second. In some ways, this Naturals team was every bit as good as the one that tied for title last year, but the Jackalope were just a little better. The Naturals were unable to repeat their amazing feat of 50 batting points from a year ago, but still led the league with 45. They figured they would need to get more out of their pitching staff though. Unfortunately for them, that didn’t really happen. Newly acquired Zack Greinke was solid, but he, along with the rest of the staff, didn’t have a truly spectacular season. Still, the Naturals shouldn’t regret their Greinke/Howard trade, because the pitching would have been worse without Greinke. Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto led the league’s best offense. Cabrera won the batting title with a .344 average. Overall, there is nothing for the Naturals to be ashamed of this year. They were as close as one half point behind the Jackalope in late August. They figure to be right back in the title hunt again next year.
Kevin’s Kings
Again, this wasn’t a “bad” season for the Kings. They finished exactly where they did a year ago, in fourth place. However, this time fourth place meant 15 points back and not really a serious contender down the stretch. Last year, they were in the hunt right until the end and finished just five points behind the co-champions. Other than place of finish, there was virtually nothing in common between the 2010 and 2011 Kings. This year’s squad had a below average offense and one of the league’s best pitching staffs. It was just the opposite in ’10. The main reason for the pitching upswing was one man: Justin Verlander. Verlander tied a DTBL single season record with 24 wins. He also led the league in WHIP (0.920) and strike outs (250). Really, he’s the only Kings pitcher who sticks out as having an impressive year, yet they managed to garner 40 pitching points. On offense, it was an underwhelming and injury plagued season for almost all of the Kings stars. Jose Reyes bounced back to being one of the league’s elite players, but he too couldn’t stay healthy. It is hard to say where this franchise is headed. Without Verlander’s monster year, they could have finished near the bottom of the standings this year. On the other hand, had a few key guys stayed healthy, they may have been in the hunt until the end.
Marc’s Mavericks
Now this is the one team in this group where the “bad” label probably applies. For the second straight year, the Mavericks finished in eighth place. But this isn’t a franchise that typically goes through long rebuilding processes. Last year, they were completely wrecked by injuries and essentially gave up with a couple months to play. This year, they had some injuries, but that wasn’t the biggest problem. Disappointing seasons from almost all of their young players gave them little hope of competing. They have had five first round picks the past two years, and I would call several of them major disappointments at this point. Carlos Santana and Matt Wieters had decent seasons at a weak offensive position, but the jury is still out on them. Gordon Beckham and Jayson Heward have been huge busts so far. The only Maverick who really stood out as having a tremendous 2011 season was Clayton Kershaw. Kerhsaw led the league in ERA (2.28) and was just behind Verlander in WHIP (0.977), wins (21) and strike outs (248). It should definitely come down to those two for the Cy Young award. The Mavericks really need to hit some home runs with their early picks in next year’s draft because the last two years have been rather forgettable.
THE UGLY
David’s Darkhorses
The Darkhorses set a standard of excellence in winning four consecutive DTBL championships from 2006-2010. This year, not only did they fail to meet that standard, but they wound up with the worst finish in league history for a defending champion, finishing a distant seventh. They won those four titles by having the most balanced team in the league, usually finishing first or second in both batting and pitching. This year, they somehow managed to fall to the middle of the pack in both areas. Injuries were a factor, but not to the extent you would expect for a team that fell apart like this. Below average seasons for most of the roster is the main explanation. I suppose it was bound to happen eventually. On the bright side, Jacoby Ellsbury turned himself into one of the best fantasy players with a 32 HR, 39 SB season while hitting .321. His Red Sox teammate Adrian Gonzalez had another solid year for the Darkhorses, but dropped off a bit in the second half. One major problem with the pitching staff was the criminally bad run support Tim Lincecum received. He only won 13 games despite putting up his usual dominating numbers in the other categories. James Shields and Chris Carpenter also won fewer games than you would expect from their other numbers. I’ll chalk this up as a worst-case scenario season for the Darkhorses. Surely, things will go better next year.
Greg’s Gators
I should point out that until the final day of the season, it appeared the Gators, and possibly the Cougars as well, were going to break the DTBL record for fewest total points in the 10 team era. Fortunately for them, both teams picked up a point or two in the final day and avoided this place in history. They wound up tied for ninth place with a putrid 21 total points, one clear of the record low mark of 20 by Tim’s Titans in 1999.
While the Gators did avoid that distinction, they managed to set a different low water mark. Their six batting points are the fewest ever in the 10 team era (since ’98, batting or pitching). Only a couple stolen bases prevented them from finishing dead last in all five offensive categories. Sadly, they were in last by a fairly wide margin in most categories. They are going to have a tough time finding enough players worthy of keeping. About the only offensive player who put up keeper-worthy numbers was Dan Uggla, and even he only hit .233. The pitching staff was a little better, mostly thanks to C.C. Sabathia. Injuries to Jair Jurrjens and Josh Johnson prevented them from having a pretty respectable staff. Overall, there is a lot of work to do for this squad. I think 2011 was clearly the worst season in franchise history.
Kelly’s Cougars
I think Kelly clearly had more important things on her mind this year, which caused her to not put a lot of time and effort into her team. I’m not sure it would have mattered though. Much as was the case with the White Sox, Adam Dunn almost single-handedly ruined the Cougars season. Nobody had a particularly good season either though. Josh Hamilton fought through injuries, and other key players were simply inconsistent. The pitching staff was especially poor, though that can be partly blamed on the loss of staff ace Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery before the season even started. This will be chalked up as a forgettable year for the Cougars. Perhaps with some bounce back years from their key players, 2012 should be better.
Jose Bautista highlights a loaded American roster.
Sorry I’m a few days late with this, but I’m finally ready to announce the 2011 DTBL All-Stars. The 18th annual DTBL All-Star Game is tentatively scheduled for next Friday, July 15 at 10 p.m. EDT, 7 p.m. PDT. As mentioned a few days ago, the game will be live video-streamed here.
For the second straight year, the American Division will be managed by Nick while Dave will call the shots for the National Division. Perhaps there will be a little extra drama involved in this matchup as Nick and Dave try to claim final bragging rights from their championship tie a year ago. They broke all ties in voting and chose the 23rd player for their rosters. For the first time in league history, there was a team without any representation on the initial All-Star roster. Therefore, Nick was forced to use his 23rd player slot to make sure the Gators received a bid. He chose third baseman Johnny Peralta, who wasn’t even on the All-Star ballot (also a first). Peralta had fewer at bats than Danny Valencia at the time I created the list, which kept him off the ballot. Dave was able to use his 23rd slot with a more conventional pick, David Ortiz.
The American Division appears to have the stronger roster, which is not surprising considering they hold four of the top five spots in the standings. Their rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren is about as good as you can get (all but Haren were Jackalope a year ago). Meanwhile, the National team is loaded with Kings. 10 of the 23 players are from the Kings roster, which isn’t terribly surprising since they are the division’s lone contender so far this year.
My timing isn’t very good with this post as Jered Weaver picked up his first loss of the season tonight. However, this doesn’t change the fact that he had a truly remarkable April and is the primary reason why the Moonshiners find themselves in first place one month into the 2011 season.
Weaver finished the month with a perfect 6-0 record, winning all six of his starts. He compiled a 0.99 ERA, 0.788 WHIP and 49 strike outs, all very impressive numbers. Shockingly, none of these marks were good enough to lead the league, except wins, but I’ll get to that in a bit. His six wins are two more than any other pitcher has accumulated though.
The Moonshiners acquired Weaver from the Jackalope during the first round of the draft in exchange for their first round pick. As we all knew at the time, Weaver was exactly what the Moonshiners needed: a true ace. However, I don’t think anyone expected him to come out of the gates quite this strong. He has helped lead the Moonshiners to a top two ranking in every pitching category except saves (4th). Combined with the league’s best offense to date, the Moonshiners find themselves 13 points ahead of the pack with a very impressive 87 points.
Trading Weaver hasn’t really killed the Jackalope as you much as you might think though. They still have arguably three of the top five pitchers in the league and are right behind the Moonshiners in total pitching points. If their offense, specifically Albert Pujols, picks it up a bit, the second place Jackalope will be right on the Moonshiners’ heals. Ryan Braun has carried their offense so far, with a league leading ten home runs and a .356 batting average. Braun would probably get my vote for Offensive Player of the Month. One other candidate for that title would be Darkhorses outfielder Andre Ethier. Just a couple minutes ago, he recorded a RBI single to extend his hitting streak to 28 games. Going into tonight, he led the league with a .378 average, just a few points ahead of his Dodger teammate Matt Kemp.
Weaver wasn’t the only pitcher who compiled ridiculous statistics in April. Amazingly, Gators pitcher Josh Johnson has him beat in both ERA and WHIP. Johnson has a 0.88 ERA and 0.707 WHIP. Some bad luck has kept his win total at just three though. Johnson has carried the Gators to the third most pitching points in the league, however a putrid offense has kept them near the bottom of the league standings. The third pitcher who deserves special mention is Weaver’s Moonshiners and Angels teammate Dan Haren. Haren has a 1.23 ERA and a 0.750 WHIP with four wins. At one point, Weaver and Haren combined for eight wins in eight starts.
There is one other big news item tonight. Mariano Rivera became the DTBL’s all-time saves leader with the save he picked up against the Tigers this evening. This is deserving of a separate blog post though, so I will go into more detail about Rivera later this week.
