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DTBL Best of the Decade

Tuesday, December 31st, 2019

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The 2010s marked a decisive change from the first decade of this millennium in the DTBL.  The previous decade saw two teams dominate the landscape with the Kings opening it up with four straight titles from 2000-2003 and the Darkhorses doing the same from 2007-2010.  This decade, half of the franchises won at least one championship and only the 2019 Kings were able to successfully defend a title.  The 2010s started with arguably the craziest season in league history as the Darkhorses and Naturals became the first co-champions.  Two years later, the Naturals were involved in another epic finish as they just barely edged out three other teams to win another title.  The second half of the decade belonged to the Kings, as they have now won three of the past four championships.

As we enter a new decade, it is time to take a look back at the past 10 years in the DTBL.  Here are some of the best teams and players of the 2010s.

Franchise of the Decade:  Kevin’s Kings

It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Kings in the 2010s.  In 2013, they were able to put an end to their ten year title drought, barely edging out the Mavericks for the fifth championship in franchise history.  The remainder of the decade was pretty crazy for them.  Three times, they finished in the bottom half of the standings, including a dreadful last place finish in 2015 and a ninth place finish in 2017.  But they somehow managed to turn each of those poor years into a championship run the following year.  All told, they won four championships in the decade, the most of any franchise.  They weren’t the most consistent franchise, but titles are what matter most and nobody had more of them than the Kings.  The clear second choice for this honor would be the Naturals who won three titles, all coming in the same years the Giants won the World Series (2010, 2012, 2014).

Team of the Decade:  2015 Jay’s Jackalope

The Jackalope made their championships count.  Both of their title winning seasons were among the most impressive this league has ever seen.  It is difficult to compare teams from different seasons since so much of fantasy success is relative to the competition.  So simply going with the team with the most standings points doesn’t necessarily make them better than title winning teams from other years.  What sets apart the 2015 Jackalope, and their 2011 squad too for that matter, was the manner in which they dominated the rest of the league.  They won the league by a record breaking 19 points over the Mavericks.  The Jackalope offense was led by MVP winner Josh Donaldson and runner-up Paul Goldschmidt.  Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta led the pitching staff and won both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, giving the Jackalope a clean sweep of the three major awards.  The year started with the Jackalope making some major March trades, dealing away franchise icons Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke.  But in return, they acquired Josh Donaldson, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, all of whom continue to reap benefits for them today.  It was one of the most impressive roster shake-ups we’ve ever seen.  Honorable mention in this category could go to a bunch of different teams.  Certainly the 2011 Jackalope who also won the league by double digits, the 2014 Naturals who set the record for most total points (89), the 2019 Kings who successfully defended their title with a much stronger season in the follow-up, and the 2017 Mavericks who finally cashed in a championship to go along with their historically dominant pitching staff for much of the decade.

Player of the Decade:  Mike Trout, Mavericks (2012-2019)

This was about as easy of a decision as you will find.  Mike Trout has been in the DTBL for eight seasons now.  In all eight seasons he has made the All-Star team and received MVP votes.  Shockingly, he only has one MVP award to his name so far.  But he has finished in the top five of that vote six times, including each of his first five seasons.  He also won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012.  In the 2010s, he led all DTBL players in PAR (71.0) by more than 20 points.  His decade ranks in the five offensive categories:  .308 average (5th), 280 home runs (3rd), 736 runs batted in (14th), 882 runs scored (1st), 195 stolen bases (7th).  Keep in mind that many players had a two year head start over him in the counting categories.  In 2015, his worst season according to PAR, he hit .299 with 41 home runs.  A second round pick by the Mavericks in 2012, Trout holds the franchise career record in homers, runs and stolen bases and is second in RBI.  Nobody else really garnered any consideration for this honor, but let’s just say Paul Goldschmidt was the runner-up.

Pitcher of the Decade:  Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks (2010-2019)

This was a pretty easy choice too, and yes, it is another Maverick.  In the 2010s, Clayton Kershaw won a pair of Cy Young awards, finished in the top four for that award seven straight years and made seven DTBL All-Star teams.  His numbers during the four year stretch of 2013-2016 were downright silly, posting ERAs below 2.00 in three of those years.  He won the Cy Young in 2013 and 2014 with ERAs of 1.83 and 1.77.  He posted a double digit PAR for seven straight seasons (2011-2017).  For the decade, his 2.30 ERA and 0.961 WHIP were easily the best among qualified starting pitchers.  His 154 wins ranked third as did his 2,131 strikeouts.  Somehow, the Mavericks nabbed him in the sixth round of the 2009 draft.  He is the franchise leader among starting pitchers in every relevant category.  Two other pitchers had similarly great decades:  the Kings veteran duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  But unlike those two, Kershaw was an elite performer for the entire decade.  Scherzer didn’t really reach that level until 2013 and Verlander had some down years in the middle of the decade.

 

Now let’s move onto the All-Decade players.  I’ve selected 46 players and split them into first and second teams.  Unlike the honors I’ve bestowed above, these selections were mostly objective.  I went with the players who accumulated the highest PAR in the decade, with exceptions at two positions:  catcher and relief pitcher.  Because even some above average performers at those positions have trouble accumulating positive PAR, I didn’t want to ding players for longevity in which some negative PAR years may have dragged their total down.  Also, I didn’t want to reward a few closers who have had just a couple great years, enough to put them near the top of the PAR leaderboard.  So I looked at the full set of numbers to make my decisions at those two positions.  For players who changed positions throughout the course of the decade, they were classified at whichever position they appeared in the most seasons.  Without further ado, here are 46 of the best players from the 2010s.

 

First Team All-Decade

C – Victor Martinez (Naturals ’10-’15, Mavericks ’16, Kings ’17):  .301 AVG, 115 HR, 504 RBI, 389 R, 5 SB, 10.8 PAR

C – Buster Posey (Demigods ’11-’19):  .302 AVG, 118 HR, 590 RBI, 521 R, 23 SB, 4.8 PAR

1B – Paul Goldschmidt (Jackalope ’12-’19):  .294 AVG, 235 HR, 781 RBI, 778 R, 123 SB, 51.0 PAR

2B – Jose Altuve (Demigods ’12-’19):  .316 AVG, 125 HR, 514 RBI, 693 R, 240 SB, 43.0 PAR

3B – Nolan Arenado (Naturals ’14-’19):  .298 AVG, 215 HR, 677 RBI, 574 R, 13 SB, 42.2 PAR

SS – Francisco Lindor (Demigods ’16-’19):  .284 AVG, 115 HR, 327 RBI, 423 R, 81 SB, 28.3 PAR

1B/3B – Miguel Cabrera (Naturals ’10-’18, Mavericks ’19):  .317 AVG, 265 HR, 928 RBI, 783 R, 14 SB, 43.2 PAR

2B/SS – Robinson Cano (Kings ’10-’19):  .302 AVG, 227 HR, 851 RBI, 791 R, 34 SB, 38.4 PAR

OF – Mike Trout (Mavericks ’12-’19):  .308 AVG, 280 HR, 736 RBI, 882 R, 195 SB, 71.0 PAR

OF – Nelson Cruz (Mavericks ’10-’11, Gators ’12-’17, Komodos ’18-’19):  .283 AVG, 338 HR, 941 RBI, 761 R, 49 SB, 47.6 PAR

OF – Mookie Betts (Kings ’15-’19):  .302 AVG, 134 HR, 447 RBI, 575 R, 116 SB, 41.3 PAR

OF – Andrew McCutchen (Naturals ’10-’17, Choppers ’18-’19):  .286 AVG, 219 HR, 763 RBI, 864 R, 165 SB, 40.7 PAR

OF – Ryan Braun (Jackalope ’10-’19):  .295 AVG, 236 HR, 796 RBI, 753 R, 164 SB, 40.3 PAR

DH – Edwin Encarnacion (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11, Mavericks ’12-’14, Darkhorses ’15-’19):  .265 AVG, 307 HR, 883 RBI, 752 R, 39 SB, 42.3 PAR

SP – Clayton Kershaw (Mavericks ’10-’19):  2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 154 W, 0 SV, 2,131 K, 112.6 PAR

SP – Max Scherzer (Jackalope ’10, Kings ’10-’19):  3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 155 W, 0 SV, 2,348 K, 98.3 PAR

SP – Justin Verlander (Kings ’10-’19):  3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 159 W, 0 SV, 2,210 K, 95.5 PAR

SP – Zack Greinke (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11-’14, Moonshiners ’15-’19):  3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 152 W, 0 SV, 1,852 K, 75.1 PAR

SP – Chris Sale (Naturals ’11, Choppers ’12-’19):  3.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 102 W, 6 SV, 1,907 K, 68.9 PAR

RP – Craig Kimbrel (Choppers ’11-’19):  2.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 27 W, 344 SV, 855 K, 34.6 PAR

RP – Kenley Jansen (Mavericks ’11-’19):  2.35 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 29 W, 295 SV, 827 K, 32.1 PAR

RP – Aroldis Chapman (Mavericks ’11, ’15-’17, Jackalope ’12-’14, Komodos ’18-’19):  2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27 W, 271 SV, 796 K, 27.2 PAR

RP – Jonathan Papelbon (Kings ’10-’15, Jackalope ’15-’16):  2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 27 W, 217 SV, 462 K, 8.8 PAR

 

Second Team All-Decade

C – Yadier Molina (Choppers ’10-’16, Cougars ’17-’19):  .289 AVG, 120 HR, 645 RBI, 500 R, 53 SB, -0.1 PAR

C – J.T. Realmuto (Darkhorses ’16-’19):  .282 AVG, 73 HR, 266 RBI, 290 R, 32 SB, 5.6 PAR

1B – Joey Votto (Naturals ’10-’19):  .306 AVG, 229 HR, 745 RBI, 825 R, 66 SB, 38.2 PAR

2B – Ian Kinsler (Moonshiners ’10-’16, Jackalope ’17-’18):  .268 AVG, 163 HR, 609 RBI, 835 R, 148 SB, 28.5 PAR

3B – Adrian Beltre (Choppers ’10-’18):  .307 AVG, 226 HR, 781 RBI, 691 R, 10 SB, 34.9 PAR

SS – Trea Turner (Naturals ’16-’19):  .292 AVG, 60 HR, 199 RBI, 306 R, 145 SB, 28.1 PAR

1B/3B – Freddie Freeman (Demigods ’12-’19):  .296 AVG, 199 HR, 698 RBI, 699 R, 39 SB, 36.2 PAR

2B/SS – Brian Dozier (Moonshiners ’14-’19):  .245 AVG, 157 HR, 437 RBI, 521 R, 77 SB, 22.2 PAR

OF – Charlie Blackmon (Cougars ’15-’19):  .309 AVG, 142 HR, 389 RBI, 561 R, 87 SB, 37.3 PAR

OF – Bryce Harper (Darkhorses ’13-’19):  .278 AVG, 197 HR, 576 RBI, 607 R, 70 SB, 35.1 PAR

OF – Christian Yelich (Darkhorses ’14-’19):  .304 AVG, 134 HR, 481 RBI, 550 R, 111 SB, 34.8 PAR

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (Jackalope ’11-’19):  .268 AVG, 278 HR, 701 RBI, 627 R, 36 SB, 34.4 PAR

OF – Carlos Gonzalez (Kings ’10-’17):  .293 AVG, 197 HR, 648 RBI, 638 R, 97 SB, 33.7 PAR

DH – Albert Pujols (Jackalope ’10-’14, Mavericks ’15, ’18, Choppers ’16-’17, Darkhorses ’18):  .272 AVG, 250 HR, 813 RBI, 630 R, 49 SB, 34.6 PAR

SP – David Price (Naturals ’10-’18, Komodos ’19):  3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 134 W, 0 SV, 1,804 K, 62.4 PAR

SP – Madison Bumgarner (Cougars ’11-’19):  3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 111 W, 0 SV, 1,664 K, 59.9 PAR

SP – Felix Hernandez (Jackalope ’10-’14, ’18, Moonshiners ’15-’17):  3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 104 W, 0 SV, 1,595 K, 52.1 PAR

SP – Jon Lester (Naturals ’10-’12, Choppers ’13-’19):  3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 144 W, 0 SV, 1,773 K, 51.0 PAR

SP – Corey Kluber (Demigods ’14-’19):  2.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 83 W, 0 SV, 1,238 K, 50.9 PAR

RP – Francisco Rodriguez (Moonshiners ’10-’11, Mavericks ’12, Naturals ’14, Kings ’15-’17):  3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23 W, 181 SV, 407 K, 7.0 PAR

RP – Greg Holland (Gators ’12-’13, Naturals ’13-’17, Komodos ’18, Mavericks ’19):  3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 W, 198 SV, 428 K, 4.5 PAR

RP – David Robertson (Cougars ’12-’19):  2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 31 W, 127 SV, 515 K, 8.1 PAR

RP – Roberto Osuna (Moonshiners ’16-’19):  2.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 13 W, 134 SV, 270 K, 13.8 PAR

 

I thought about writing a short blurb for each player above, but decided that would take far too much time.  Here are a couple links to leaderboards for the decade, for your perusal:

Batters

Pitchers

Feel free to chime in below if you feel some player(s) were snubbed.  What an amazing decade it was in the DTBL.  Here’s to the 2020s being just as great.  Happy New Year!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Someone Old, Someone New

Saturday, May 4th, 2019

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Five weeks into the 2019 season, it is apparent that we will not have a repeat of 2018 in the DTBL where a single team dominated the league nearly from start to finish.  The Jackalope broke out to an early lead in the first couple weeks of the season, but since then, first place has been a revolving door.  The month of April ended with the Jackalope on top, but five other teams were within nine points of the lead.  It has been a rough start to the season for the Demigods and a couple other teams need to pick it up. But for the most part, everybody is well positioned as we move into May.

On a macro level, the early season trends in baseball have been fewer hits (lower batting averages), more strikeouts and a lot more home runs.  The current league batting average of .260 would break last season’s low water mark of .262.  But overall, offense is up, with the league ERA soaring to 3.89, which is higher than any full season league ERA since 2006.  The league WHIP is up as well.  So while pitchers are allowing fewer hits, they are actually surrendering more base runners due to a spike in walks.

As you might expect with some of these extreme statistical increases, several individual players are off to record breaking paces as well.  Komodos outfielder Cody Bellinger and Darkhorses outfielder Christian Yelich each slugged 14 home runs in March/April.  That ties a league record for most home runs in the first month of the season, matching Albert Pujols in 2006 and Alex Rodriguez in 2007.  Bellinger’s 37 RBI are an April record and his 32 runs also ties the record.  Spoiler alert, Bellinger will be mentioned again below.  Jackalope pitcher Gerrit Cole struck out 65 batters in the first month, which also ties a league record set by Curt Schilling in April of 1998.

Again this year, I’m going to write monthly posts like this one, recapping the weekly and monthly award winners.  Here are the batters and pitchers of the week for the first five weeks of the 2019 season.

Batters of the Week:

Week 1 (3/20 – 3/31) – Cody Bellinger, Komodos
Week 2 (4/1 – 4/7) – Anthony Rendon, Jackalope
Week 3 (4/8 – 4/14) – Austin Meadows, Demigods
Week 4 (4/15 – 4/21) – Christian Yelich, Darkhorses
Week 5 (4/22 – 4/28) – Luke Voit, Naturals

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 1 (3/20 – 3/31) – Jose Berrios, Darkhorses
Week 2 (4/1 – 4/7) – Mike Clevinger, Naturals
Week 3 (4/8 – 4/14) – Blake Snell, Cougars
Week 4 (4/15 – 4/21) – James Paxton, Naturals
Week 5 (4/22 – 4/28) – J.A. Happ, Komodos

Unfortunately, April was a rough month from an injury perspective for players who were off to hot starts.  Exactly half of the players listed above wound up hitting the injured list shortly after earning their weekly honor.  Rendon and Meadows would have been in the conversation for Batter of the Month if not for their injuries.  Bellinger and Yelich, on the other hand, have remained healthy and are off to historically fast starts.  But only one of them can win the month’s top honor.  That goes to…

Batter of the Month:

Cody Bellinger, Komodos
.431 AVG, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 32 R, 5 SB, 4.64 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Justin Verlander, Kings
2.45 ERA, 0.864 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 53 K, 3.31 PAR

An old guy and a (relative) newcomer.  23 year old Cody Bellinger not only had arguably the best month of April in league history, but on the short list for best months at any point of the season.  He is only the fourth player to ever hit 14+ homers with an average over .400 for an entire month (or a month and 4 days, in this case).  The others were Juan Gonzalez in July of 1996, Albert Belle in July of 1998 and Barry Bonds in September/October of 2001.  But Bellinger had a higher average than all of them, scored the most runs of the foursome and easily stole the most bases.  I don’t have monthly PAR calculations going back that far, but I would guess Bellinger’s was the best in league history.  While his rookie campaign of ’18 was slightly disappointing for the Komodos, it appears they are getting everything they could have hoped for out of him this season.  It was unfortunate for Yelich to not have won this award because his numbers were insane as well.  Moonshiners shortstop Tim Anderson came in third.

Justin Verlander’s late career resurgence has continued into his age 36 season.  Last year’s third place finisher in the Cy Young vote has started this season on top of the Pitching PAR leaderboard.  His 0.86 WHIP led all starting pitchers in March/April.  With 53 strikeouts in 44 innings, he’s also maintaining an impressive strikeout ratio.  He is currently keeping the Kings pitching staff afloat, as no other starting pitcher on the team has a PAR over 1.  Verlander last won this monthly honor last June.  This award could have gone to a bunch of different pitchers.  Verlander barely edged out the Jackalope duo of Tyler Glasnow and Luis Castillo and Choppers righty Trevor Bauer.

Posted in Awards, Kings, Komodos | Comments Off

2019 Season Preview: Part II

Monday, March 25th, 2019

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The second part of this 2019 DTBL season preview series will examine three teams that are projected to finish with nearly identical point totals, within a single point of each other.  Two of the teams are slotted just a couple points ahead of the ninth place Cougars as well, so that means things are projected to be very tight in the bottom half of the standings.  The previous post covered a pair of teams that finished in the top half of the standings a year ago.  Meanwhile, this one covers two more teams in that situation.  So for those of you scoring at home, that means that four of the five teams that will be projected to finish in the top half of the standings were among the teams that finished in the bottom half a year ago.  And the lone team that is picked to remain in the bottom half would still consider this projection to be a pretty significant step forward.  So I guess what I’m getting at is that 2019 may look nothing like 2018 in the DTBL.  Here are the previews for the teams picked to finish in sixth and a tie for seventh places.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Scored - 10th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average - 3rd (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (6th)
  • Wins - 1st (3rd)
  • Saves – 6th (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (3rd)
  • Total Points – 7th-T (4th)

Summary:

Last year marked the fifth time in six seasons that the Thunder Choppers finished in the top four of the league.  However, once again, they weren’t able to keep pace with the league champion.  Despite all of those high finishes, they’ve only come close to a title once in that stretch, finishing 2 1/2 points out in 2016.  It was a mediocre offense that held them back a year ago.  Unfortunately, these projections show that being an issue again this season as they are tabbed to record the fewest batting points in the league.  But there could be a little more upside this time around as they went heavier than usual on younger players with higher upsides in the draft.  Anthony Rizzo and Whit Merrifield have strong offensive projections, but none of their other hitters jump off the page.  New additions Miguel Andujar, Franmil Reyes and Willy Adames have intriguing potential though.  And let’s not forget returning outfielder Byron Buxton, who was the top prospect in all of baseball just a few years ago.  If he ever figures it out, he could be a fantasy superstar.  The pitching staff was very good last year, but could be even better in 2019.  Chris Sale is a perennial Cy Young contender.  Trevor Bauer had a huge breakout a year ago and is their clear #2 now.  Bauer’s Indians teammate Shane Bieber is the exciting new addition to the Choppers rotation.  The bullpen could be excellent as well, but Craig Kimbrel is going to need to sign with a MLB team sooner than later to solidify the group.  Otherwise, it will be Ken Giles and Jordan Hicks leading the way.  One fallback plan if Kimbrel never gets a job will be Corbin Burnes, who can continue the Choppers tradition of having a starting pitcher accumulating stats from a relief pitching slot, something these projections don’t really take into account.  A seventh place finish would be disappointing for the Choppers.  If their offense is better than prognosticated, they will likely finish in the top half of the standings once again.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 6th (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (1st)
  • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (4th)
  • Earned Run Average - 8th (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 10th (4th)
  • Wins – 10th (9th)
  • Saves - 5th (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points - 10th (7th)
  • Total Points – 7th-T (2nd)

Summary:

Of the four teams projected to drop from the top to bottom half of the league this season, the Darkhorses would be the biggest disappointment if this actually came to pass.  They put a serious scare into the Kings down the stretch last season before falling a little short.  Had the pitching staff been a little more productive, they would have won the league.  But they are now projected to have the worst pitching staff in the league.  The numbers are dragged down a bit by a couple of their surplus Braves starters who don’t figure to be regulars in the rotation though.  Speaking of Braves starters, they have four of them.  First round pick Mike Foltynewicz will be the key to ensuring they don’t have the worst staff in the league.  He will slot in behind Jacob deGrom, who once again should be one of the best pitchers in the league.  A little more win luck for him would be helpful as well.  The projections aren’t quite as optimistic about Patrick Corbin or Jose Berrios, but the talent is there for this to be a pretty good staff.  With Corey Knebel’s health a huge concern, they may have trouble racking up the saves.  Brad Hand is the only safe bet to be a significant save accumulator.  Meanwhile, the offense should remain one of the best in the league.  They have seven hitters projected for 3+ PAR, tied for the most in the league.  Those seven:  Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Daniel Murphy, Xander Boagarts, Bryce Harper, George Springer and Christian Yelich.  And that doesn’t even include J.T. Realmuto, who may be the best catcher in the league.  They could benefit from some positive home ballpark changes among those guys too, namely Harper, Realmuto and Murphy.  This is a very deep offensive unit.  Whether or not you believe the Darkhorses will compete for the title, or finish close to these projections instead largely depends on what you expect from their pitching staff.  If better than advertised, they will be a dangerous team once again.

Kat’s Komodos

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases - 1st (1st)
  • Earned Run Average - 10th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 6th (10th)
  • Wins - 3rd (5th)
  • Saves - 8th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 6th-T (9th)
  • Total Points – 6th (9th)

Summary:

Finally, we come to our first team that did not finish in the top half of the standings last season.  But this projection also shows what would be a significant change in fortune for a Komodos squad that finished ninth a year ago.  Perhaps hidden a bit by the overall place of finish was just how solid of an offensive core this team has already assembled.  The 31 batting points they earned in 2018 was more than the Gators franchise they inherited had accumulated in any season since 2008.  Since their focus was almost exclusively on pitching in the early rounds of the draft, this is basically the same offensive team as a year ago, led by Jose Ramirez, Cody Bellinger and Starling Marte.  Two other guys who don’t receive a ton of attention when focusing on the best players in MLB, but who are fantasy studs are Nelson Cruz and Joey Gallo.  This team’s most glaring strength is their speed.  Marte, Ramirez, Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith should give the Komodos a great chance of winning the stolen base category once again.  The main reason for optimism that 2019 will be a huge step forward for this franchise is the seemingly improved pitching staff.  The second overall pick in the draft, Walker Buehler gives them a potential ace, which they simply did not have last year.  The rest of the rotation is filled with steady, solid veterans in David Price, J.A. Happ, Rich Hill and Jose Quintana.  At first glance, the bullpen doesn’t look great with only Aroldis Chapman and Kirby Yates entrenched as closers.  But Collin McHugh is another potential stat accumulator as a starter in a relief slot.  These projections show the Komodos improving to sixth in the league in pitching points and sixth overall.  Those would be massive improvements over a year ago.  There are plenty of reasons for the Komodos to be optimistic about their second season in the DTBL.

Posted in Choppers, Darkhorses, Komodos | Comments Off

Acuna, Soto Highlight Round One

Saturday, March 9th, 2019

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The first round of the DTBL Draft almost always features a crop of young up-and-coming stars.  But this year’s group is especially notable for their youth.  Eight of the ten players selected in the first round are under 25 years old, including the first seven picks of the draft.  And two players, Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, are among the most accomplished players at their age to ever enter the league.  Acuna and Soto just turned 21 and 20 respectively over the offseason.  All ten first round selections are DTBL rookies.  A trade of two marquee players also highlighted an excellent start to the 2019 DTBL Draft.

For the second straight year, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year was the first pick of the draft.  Ronald Acuna joins the Jackalope coming off a stellar rookie campaign.  He hit .293 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, flashing all of his plus tools.  The Braves outfielder became a star almost immediately upon promotion and helped lead his team to an unexpected division championship.  He could help the Jackalope make a similar jump in the standings this year.  The Jackalope offense was especially disappointing a year ago, but the pieces are still there to be one of the best teams in the league.  Acuna was a pretty clear choice here.

Last year, the Komodos took a young Dodgers star with the first pick of the draft (Cody Bellinger).  This year, they took another young Dodgers star with the second pick.  Walker Buehler should give a significant boost to a pitching staff that really struggled a year ago.  Buehler was pretty clearly the best pitcher available in this draft.  In 137 big league innings, he struck out 151 while posting an impressive 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  That ERA is a full point lower than any Komodos starting pitcher posted in ’18, when they finished dead last in the league in that category, by a healthy margin.  Buehler will immediately become the Komodos best pitcher.

Juan Soto has already put himself in rarefied air based on his accomplishments in the big leagues as a teenager.  Nobody was expecting Soto to reach the majors for another year or two, but a series of injuries to Nationals outfielders caused them to bring him up last May. He was an immediate success and made it impossible to send him back down.  He was so good in his rookie campaign that the Nationals decided to only make a halfhearted attempt to retain Bryce Harper this winter.  Soto hit .292 with 22 homers in just 414 at bats.  The Naturals selected him with the third pick and he could have joined his Nationals teammate Victor Robles to form an exciting young duo for the Naturals as well.  But Soto was immediately traded to the Mavericks in a blockbuster swap of outfielders.  In return, the Naturals acquired Andrew Benintendi.  These are two of the best outfielders in the game, so this is quite a swap.  Benintendi is more established and is a little more well-rounded, offering a stolen base threat as well.  But Soto has a nearly unlimited upside in the power categories.  It will be very interesting to compare these players as their careers progress.  For the Mavericks, an outfield of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge is pretty darn scary.  But the Naturals have no shortage of young star hitters either.

With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners selected this year’s most interesting player, two-way star Shohei Ohtani.  Coming over from Japan, Ohtani was expected to be an immediate star on the mound, but many questioned if he would really be able to hit big league pitching.  In fact, some thought if he truly wanted to be a two-way player, he may need some time in the minors.  Well, turns out he can hit major league pitching.  He hit .285 with 22 home runs in just 326 at bats.  An injury limited him to just 51 innings on the mound, where he struck out 63 with a 3.31 ERA.  Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in 2019.  He does intend to hit, but probably won’t see action in a big league game until May.  The Moonshiners have all sorts of options with Ohtani.  First, they can use him at 1B or OF this year since he didn’t play a non-pitching field position last year.  And looking forward, they will have the option to use him as either a pitcher or hitter next year, assuming he is a keeper.  The sky is the limit with this pick, but the Moonshiners probably won’t get their money’s worth until next year and beyond.

The Mavericks aren’t used to picking in the first half of the first round, at least not with their own pick.  Last year was the first time they finished in the bottom half of the standings since 2011.  They took advantage of the rare positioning to acquire two of the top five players selected in this draft.  In addition to the trade for Soto, they selected pitcher Jack Flaherty with the fifth pick.  The Mavericks have an absolutely loaded offense, but the once undisputed top pitching staff in the league was anything but that a year ago.  Injuries destroyed the staff and caused them to finish dead last in pitching points.  Flaherty is the first step to try to rebuild that group.  Overshadowed a bit by the players already mentioned above, he had a rather dominant rookie campaign as well.  182 strikeouts in 151 innings is great for any pitcher, much less a 22 year old rookie.  The Cardinals hurler also had a strong 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  He should provide stability for this revamped staff.

The Cougars have had a pretty good recent track record of selecting hitters in the first round.  Second baseman Gleyber Torres is the next in line.  The Cougars will likely open the season with their offensive lineup featuring their past five first round picks.  Torres is younger than all of his predecessors though at the time of joining the squad.  He hit .271 with 24 home runs during his age 21 rookie season.  That combination of ability and age should make him a fixture on the Cougars roster for a very long time.  The Yankees have a lot of options in their infield this year, but one thing is certain.  Torres will be playing virtually every day, whether it be at second base or shortstop.

Speaking of impressive young Yankees infielders, another one was selected with the seventh pick, with the Choppers taking third baseman Miguel Andujar.  Andujar hit .297 with 27 homers and 92 RBI, to finish second in the American League Rookie of the Year vote, behind Ohtani.  The only knock on him is his glove, but that matters not at all in fantasy.  The Choppers will look to Andujar to replace team legend and future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre, who retired over the winter.  If Andujar can provide a spark to the Choppers offense, they could have a chance of ending their 20 year title drought.

For the second straight year, the Demigods took the old guy of the first round.  But in this case, it is still a league rookie.  Jesus Aguilar started the 2018 season as a bench player for the Brewers.  But the first baseman immediately showed off his incredible power, quickly earned a starting job, and then made the NL All-Star team.  He slugged 35 homers with 108 runs batted in.  He did cool off a bit in the second half of the season, with only 11 of those homers coming after the All-Star break.  Outside of maybe Acuna and Soto, he was probably the safest bet for power in this draft.  The Demigods finished eighth in home runs last year, the biggest weakness for an otherwise strong offensive team.

The Darkhorses selected Braves pitcher Mike Foltynewicz with the eighth pick, making this the first time since 2015 that more than two pitchers were taken in the first round.  Foltynewicz had a breakout season a year ago, which earned him an All-Star appearance.  He struck out 202 hitters in 183 innings with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  His previous best ERA season was 4.31, so ’18 saw quite a dramatic improvement.  While he has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, he is still just 27 years old.  The Darkhorses barely missed winning the championship last year, with a mediocre pitching staff holding them back.  Foltynewicz could be exactly what they need to get over the hump.

Sitting with the last pick in the first round, the Kings believed there was one player remaining who was clearly the best available, but he was at a position in which they were already well stacked.  So instead, they swung a trade with the Jackalope to move up a spot to grab that player.  The Kings received the Jackalope 2nd round pick (11th overall) along with a swap of 4th round slots.  The Jackalope then took Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to close out the first round.  Mondesi is a rare breed in that he is an elite base stealer, but also has surprising power.  He managed to steal 32 bases and hit 14 home runs despite not making his big league season debut until late June.  While he’s unlikely to maintain a pace like that for a full season, he still could be an above average contributor to the power categories while potentially leading the league in steals.  Once considered an elite prospect, Mondesi had slipped under the radar a bit before his 2018 breakout.  Slight spoiler alert for my upcoming season preview articles, but you definitely won’t see the Jackalope projected to finish last again.  They managed to acquire the two players with the highest projected PAR in the entire draft pool.  So the Jackalope started and finished the first round with a bang.  Meanwhile, the Kings selected starting pitcher Zack Wheeler with that pick they acquired from the Jackalope, the first pick of the second round.

Thanks to all of you for the excellent pace to the first half of this draft.  At this rate, we’ll be done with plenty of time to spare before the Japan openers.  Let’s keep up the good work!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Four DTBL Legends Enshrined

Monday, August 6th, 2018

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One of the cool things about the longevity of this league is that now most of the newly inducted members in the Baseball Hall of Fame are players who accumulated most of their Hall of Fame credentials as members of DTBL teams.  This has been the case for a while, but some year’s classes carry more significance to this league than others.  The 2018 class featured four of the best players in our league’s history:  Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome.  Also inducted were Alan Trammell and Jack Morris.  Trammell played until 1996, but was never on a DTBL major league roster.  Morris had a brief, unimpressive stint with the Gators in the league’s inaugural season.  But here is a synopsis of the DTBL careers of the big four who were inducted in Cooperstown the last week of July.

Vladimir Guerrero was originally drafted by the expansion Angels in 1998 and was a member of that team for their only season of existence.  He then returned to the draft pool the following year and somehow fell all the way to the Choppers with the 8th pick of the 1999 draft.  Needless to say, that pick worked out pretty well for them.  He spent the remaining 13 seasons of his DTBL career with the Choppers, winning a championship in his first season with them (1999).  Guerrero ranks sixth in DTBL history with a .319 average and is in the top 10 in RBI as well (1,415).  His name is littered all over the Choppers franchise leaderboard:  second in average (.319), RBI (1,306) and runs (1,130), third in home runs (390) and sixth in stolen bases (165).  Not everyone recalls his base stealing prowess.  There are 16 DTBL players with 400 home runs (Adrian Beltre just recently joined this group).  Of those 16 guys, only Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds and Gary Sheffield have more than Guerrero’s 176 career steals.  Vlad was as consistent of a hitter as the league has ever seen.  In his first nine seasons, he hit over .300 with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI in all but one year (2003).  In seasons in which he qualified for the batting title (400 at bats) his *worst* batting average was .300 in 2010.

In the history of baseball, only one pitcher has recorded more saves than Trevor Hoffman (Mariano Rivera).  The same is true of DTBL history.  His 560 saves is 136 more than any pitcher not named Rivera, so he figures to hold onto the second spot for quite some time to come.  Unlike the other three players covered here, Hoffman doesn’t have an obvious choice of team cap to wear on his fictional DTBL Hall of Fame plaque.  He spent time with six different franchises.  His longest tenures were five seasons with two different teams:  Panthers (1997-2001) and Moonshiners (2004-2008).  He started his career with the Kings (1995-1997), spent two stints with the Darkhorses (2002-2003, 2009) and split his final season (2010) with the Mavericks and Naturals.  He is the Moonshiners franchise leader in saves (202) and ranks third on the Panthers list (191).  Hoffman recorded at least 30 saves every year from 1995 through 2008, except for an injury marred 2003.  In addition to the gaudy save totals, he also struck out 948 batters, which ranks fourth among pitchers who spent their entire careers in the bullpen.  His 2.78 career ERA ranks fourth among all pitchers.  He was a member of two DTBL championship winning teams, near the end of his career:  the 2009 Darkhorses and 2010 Naturals.

Chipper Jones was a slugging third baseman in an era when that wasn’t really a thing.  It is basically him and Adrian Beltre at the top of all of the DTBL third baseman hitting rankings.  Most of his best seasons were spent as a member of the Jackalope.  He started his career with the Tidal Wave and was with them for both of their years of existence.  Then he joined another expansion team, the Jackalope, as their first pick in 1998.  He was released by the Jackalope after a decent 2006 season and added a couple more solid years with the Darkhorses in 2007 through 2009.  His final three seasons saw him bounce from the Cougars to the Mavericks and then back to the Darkhorses.  It was the Jackalope years that really made him a Hall of Fame player though.  With them, he hit .310 with 276 home runs, 874 RBI and 868 runs, all four totals rank in the top four of Jackalope history.  His career numbers also put him in elite company:  .308, 411 HR, 1,422 RBI, 1,414 runs.  The only other members of the .300/400/1,400/1,400 club are Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Albert Pujols.  While Jones’ best seasons were with the Jackalope, his championship winning years came with the Darkhorses.  He was a member of the Darkhorses for the first three of their four consecutive titles (2007-2009).  He was a teammate of Hoffman’s on that 2009 squad.

Finally, we have Jim Thome, one of the most feared sluggers of the past quarter century.  Thome ranks fourth on the DTBL career list in home runs (546) and fifth in runs batted in (1,492).  No current member of the Baseball Hall of Fame has accumulated more DTBL home runs or RBI than Thome.  He is one of the few sluggers at the top of those lists without any PED taint.  He spent his entire DTBL career with just two teams.  Thome was originally a member of the Kings, but is best remembered as a member of the Choppers, who acquired him in the second round of the 1999 draft.  Yes, the Choppers selected Hall of Famers in the first two rounds of that ’99 draft.  He spent 11 seasons with the Choppers (1999-2009), which was surrounded by a pair of stints with the Kings (1995-1998, 2010).  With the Choppers, he amassed 401 home runs, bested only by Sammy Sosa.  His 1,094 RBI and 976 runs both rank fourth in Choppers history.  Thome hit at least 40 home runs in six different seasons.  Probably the best season of his career came in 2002 when he slugged a career high 52 homers with a .304 average.  From 1999 through 2003, he hit at least 30 home runs with 100+ RBI and runs each year.  His lone DTBL championship came in his first season with the Choppers, 1999, when he was a teammate of Guerrero’s.  Coincidentally, all four of these new Hall-of-Famers were members of either the 1999 Choppers or 2009 Darkhorses.

Congratulations to four of the greatest players in DTBL history:  Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones and Jim Thome!

Now here are the weekly and monthly award winners for July 2018.

Batters of the Week:

Week 15 (7/2 – 7/8) – Yulieski Gurriel, Demigods
Week 16 (7/9 – 7/15) – Jose Ramirez, Komodos
Week 17 (7/16 – 7/22) – Matt Carpenter, Choppers
Week 18 (7/23 – 7/29) – Jonathan Schoop, Mavericks

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 15 (7/2 – 7/8) – Dallas Keuchel, Moonshiners
Week 16 (7/9 – 7/15) – Aaron Nola, Demigods
Week 17 (7/16 – 7/22) – Zack Greinke, Moonshiners
Week 18 (7/23 – 7/29) – Rick Porcello, Cougars

Compiling the information above exposed a bit of a flaw in my code that captures the Batter and Pitcher of the Week winners each week.  In two instances, the above players were not the ones I captured.  Instead, I had players who weren’t on an active DTBL roster at the time.  This has happened before, but I don’t recall seeing two instances of it in the same month.  I should probably take some time to fix this.  Anyway, because I don’t store weekly PAR numbers beyond the top batter and pitcher, I had to take a guess at who should have won these awards.  So it is quite possible that Yulieski Gurriel and Rick Porcello were not the rightful winners in their respective weeks.  What is certain is the accuracy of the monthly PAR totals for July.  Here are the players of the month.

Batter of the Month:

Jose Ramirez, Komodos
.322 AVG, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R, 11 SB, 3.55 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Zack Greinke, Moonshiners
1.60 ERA, 0.891 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 35 K, 2.61 PAR

When I see eye-popping numbers in all five categories, I often will run a Baseball Reference Play Index search to see if any other players in DTBL history have matched or exceeded all of the monthly numbers compiled by the batter or pitcher of the month.  In this case, Jose Ramirez’s July, I found no results.  So, prior to July, no DTBL player had ever hit .322+ with 8+ home runs, 25+ RBI, 21+ runs and 11+ stolen bases in a single month.  These numbers were especially impressive coming in July with the All-Star break taking away a couple additional games played.  Ramirez is currently leading the DTBL in Batting PAR and home runs.  He is second in stolen bases and not far behind the leaders in RBI and runs either.  The Komodos third baseman has a strong case for MVP if he continues to be a five category force.  Ramirez won this award in a landslide, but finishing second was his Indians teammate Francisco Lindor.

Zack Grienke is quietly compiling another great season to add to his impressive career resume.  When discussing the top pitchers of the game today, Greinke is rarely mentioned.  But he is posting a sub 3.00 ERA with a dozen wins and more than a strikeout per inning.  In July, Greinke tied for the league lead with four wins while compiling a 1.60 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.  With the recently added 2005 PAR numbers, Greinke’s entire career PAR has been calculated.  Since 2005, only three other pitchers (Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer) have exceeded his 79.0 PAR.  Greinke just barely edged out Chris Sale for this monthly honor.

Posted in Awards, Choppers, Jackalope, Komodos, Moonshiners | No Comments »

2018 Season Preview: Part I

Wednesday, March 28th, 2018

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Welcome to the 2018 DTBL season!  This will be our 26th season, but also a year-long celebration of our 25th Anniversary.  In case you forgot what happened in 2017 after a long winter, here’s a quick summary:  the Mavericks dominated.  They led the league most of the season and won the championship by 11 1/2 points over the Cougars and Naturals.  After the Mavericks, very little separated the rest of the league.  The Cougars and Naturals had very good years, but it wouldn’t have taken much more for any of the other teams to have been right up there with them in the standings.  So, how do things look heading into 2018?  I’m glad you asked.

As has become an annual tradition, I am going to preview the upcoming season by using standings/stats projections to tell most of the story.  For the second straight year, I will be using FanGraph’s Depth Charts projected stats of players to generate projections for each DTBL team.  These are a blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections, with playing time adjustments done by the FanGraphs staff.  The reason I made the switch to Depth Charts last year is because I think it gives a more accurate guess at playing time so that players who are expected to play less than an every day role in the big leagues this year don’t disproportionately affect these prognostications.

Additionally, I have made one other change for this year.  In the past, I’ve scaled all the pitching stats so that the number of projected innings are the same for each team, no matter how many pitchers are on the roster.  For hitters, I have attempted to do the same, but rather than scaling to a certain at bat or plate appearance target, I would scale based on the number of hitters on the roster.  This year, I decided it would make more sense to do the same thing for hitters as pitchers.  So now the team totals in hitting categories will be scaled such that each team is projected to accumulate 8285 plate appearances.  I came up with this number by looking at the team totals in at bats the past five seasons and then applying the PA/AB ratio that has existed in MLB over that same time period, since I don’t keep plate appearance data for DTBL teams.  I figured this would be more accurate than simply using at bats since some teams may be high on guys who walk a lot while others may have a bunch of free swingers.  So team plate appearances are more likely to be similar across the league than at bats.  Anyway, the main reason for this change is so that teams who have players projected to spend far less than full seasons on major league rosters don’t kill the team’s projections across the board.  For instance, Victor Robles is only projected for 90 plate appearances this season.  In the past, including his modest numbers in the Naturals projections would have really hurt the “per player” totals.  With this change, his numbers simply won’t make up as significant of a percentage of the Naturals totals, which is logical since he probably won’t be on their active roster much of the season.  So the end result, I think, is that these projections will do a better job of predicting which players will actually be on major league rosters for DTBL teams.  Having said that, I’m still not making any personal predictions about how much time each player will spend on the active roster.  Stats for all 28 players on the post-draft rosters are included in these projections.

Anyway, let’s get started.  As usual, I’m going to break this into four parts.  Normally, each of these posts previews two or three teams.  But you get a special treat to kick things off this year:  four teams!  The reason?  Three teams are projected to tie for 7th place.  So here are the four teams that the numbers say will be near the bottom of the standings.  Two of these four were among the top four finishers a year ago, so perhaps we could see some major shuffling in the standings, which of course winds up happening every year anyway.

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 8th (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (7th)
  • Wins – 9th (8th)
  • Saves – 5th (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (4th-T)
  • Total Points – 10th (2nd-T)

Summary:

We kick off the team previews with what is probably the most surprising result my spreadsheet spit out.  Last year, the Cougars tied for second place, which was their best finish in over 20 years.  These projections don’t like their chances of duplicating that result.  One possible explanation for this dreary outlook is that the Cougars current roster consists of 13 pitchers, which is more than any other team and two more than most.  This means that a good chunk of their pitching totals are made up of numbers from pitchers who won’t actually contribute this season and waters down the impact of the numbers from their best pitchers.  However, on that note, their best pitcher is clearly Madison Bumgarner who will spend the first month of the season on the DL with a broken finger.  Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon and Luke Weaver will look to pick up the slack.  The Cougars have a bunch of interesting young pitchers who they will be able to shuffle in and out of the rotation until they find the best combination.  I would heavily bet the over on the Cougars saves projection, which was also impacted by the sheer quantity of relief pitchers on the current roster.  They should be able to roll out four closers most of the season, so a finish near the top in saves seems likely.  The offensive projections are a little more worrisome for the Cougars.  Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant are elite players, but they are going to need a couple other guys to reach All-Star caliber levels this season.  Some candidates for that include first round pick Tommy Pham and last year’s first overall pick, shortstop Trevor Story.  Story bouncing back from a disappointing DTBL rookie campaign might be the key to the Cougars season.  Somebody has to come in last in these prognostications.  It would be pretty surprising if the Cougars fell all the way to the bottom of the league in 2018 though.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (3rd)
  • Wins – 4th (6th)
  • Saves - 2nd (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (3rd)
  • Total Points – 7th-T (7th)

Summary:

After four straight seasons in the top half of the standings, the Choppers took a step backwards in 2017 and fell to seventh place.  Their strong pitching staff couldn’t overcome an offense that finished dead last in batting points.  According to these projections, they could be in for a repeat of that again this season.  The Choppers attempted to improve their offense by drafting Whit Merrifield and Delino DeShields Jr and trading for Andrew McCutchen.  Clearly, this will be a speedier team in ’18.  With regular playing time, DeShields could contend for the league lead in stolen bases.  But questions remain on where the power will come from.  Anthony Rizzo and Byron Buxton appear to be the best offensive players on the squad.  After those two though, the player with the next highest projected batting PAR is actually 10th round pick Randal Grichuk.  The pitching numbers are much more promising.  I’m not sure they will be able to lead the league in strikeouts again this year, but Chris Sale, Danny Duffy and Jon Lester form an impressive trio of left-handed starters.  Joining them this year will be Trevor Bauer, who had a sneaky impressive strikeout total a year ago.  The bullpen remains one of the best in the league, led by Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles.  It would be surprising if the Choppers don’t have one of the better pitching staffs in the league this year.  But in order for them to return to the top half of the standings, they will need to be a better hitting team.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 7th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (5th)
  • Wins – 6th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 7th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (3rd-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (6th)
  • Total Points – 7th-T (4th)

Summary:

Much like the Cougars, the Demigods are projected to take a tumble in the standings after finishing in fourth place a year ago.  Also like the Cougars, a possible explanation for the fall could be tied to their current roster construction.  In the Demigods case, four of the five extra players are hitters.  They continue to have a very deep roster of solid hitters.  Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez were two of the best players in the league last year and should be again this season.  Add in Francisco Lindor and Freddie Freeman and you have the makings of a team that doesn’t look like the seventh best offense in the league, but that is what the projections are saying.  Perhaps some of their veterans could be declining a bit, like Buster Posey and Evan Longoria.  And it remains to be seen if Ryan Zimmerman can build on his ’17 resurgence.  Overall though, this looks like a good hitting team.  Outside of Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, the pitching staff was a little disappointing last year though.  Aaron Nola and newcomer Alex Wood could blossom into stars this season.  The Demigods will be looking for bounce-back seasons from Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels.  The bullpen is likely to be a weakness.  While they could have as many as three closers, not one of them is in a particularly safe situation.  Fernando Rodney did manage to save 39 games a year ago though.  While the Demigods are projected to finish seventh in the league in both batting and pitching points, I believe their offense is much stronger than the pitching staff right now.  Will Kluber be able to carry them into contention again this year?

Kat’s Komodos

Category – Projected Rank (2017 Rank – Gators)

  • Batting Average – 7th (6th)
  • Home Runs - 3rd (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (10th)
  • Runs Scored - 2nd (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases - 2nd (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (8th)
  • Wins - 3rd (5th)
  • Saves – 9th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (10th)
  • Total Points – 7th-T (10th)

Summary:

The Komodos inaugural DTBL seasons should be pretty interesting.  They inherited a Gators roster that finished in last place a year ago, but had a relatively decent offense.  Early signs are that the Komodos could be more than just decent with the bats.  The pitching staff, however, is still a work in progress.  Adding Cody Bellinger to an already potent lineup has helped make the Komodos the second best offensive team in the entire league, according to these projections.  Jose Ramirez looks to build on his breakout ’17 campaign.  Other young players who could be poised to do big things in ’18 include Starling Marte, Joey Gallo and Corey Seager.  Also, don’t forget about Wil Myers, Yoenis Cespedes, Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz.  The Komodos received some bad news today with catcher Salvador Perez suffering an off-field knee injury that will shelve him until mid-May or so.  But otherwise, things are looking up for the Komodos hitters.  The pitching staff will have trouble escaping the cellar, however.  Jose Quintana is definitely the ace of the staff.  Rich Hill and Gio Gonzalez are solid veterans.  As is Ervin Santana, but he will likely miss the first month with a hand injury.  One young pitcher to keep an eye on is Dylan Bundy.  The bullpen has some interesting guys, most notably recent acquisition Aroldis Chapman, but may struggle to rack up saves.  Greg Holland remains an unsigned free agent.  Getting him onto a roster as a closer would certainly help.  It will be fun to see if the Komodos can make some noise in their first season.

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Demigods, Komodos | No Comments »

Komodos Nab Bellinger

Monday, March 19th, 2018

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The 2018 DTBL Draft kicked off Thursday, March 8.  The first pick belonged to the league’s newest member, Kat’s Komodos.  Inheriting a Gators roster that was well stocked with hitters but very much lacking in pitching, the biggest question going into the draft was if they would select a player based on need or take the best player available.  The Komodos did the latter, picking the consensus top player in the draft pool, Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger.  As usual, the first round as a whole skewed young with nine DTBL rookies selected, four of whom didn’t make their MLB debuts until after the All-Star break last season.  The first round was light on pitching this year as eight of the top ten were hitters.

In retrospect, the decision to take Bellinger with the first pick was probably pretty easy for the Komodos.  The reigning National League Rookie of the Year will give them a huge power boost and may even position them as one of the deepest offensive teams in the league.  Bellinger made his presence known right from the start.  He was a NL All-Star as a rookie.  He hit 39 home runs with 97 RBI and 87 runs despite not making his debut until late April.  His .267 average was quite respectable for a slugging rookie and he even stole 10 bases.  Bellinger should be a star for the Komodos for a long time to come.

In many ways, the Kings faced a similar predicament to the Komodos with the second pick and made the same decision, taking the player they believed to be the best available despite it not being a position of great need.  With that pick, the Kings selected first baseman turned outfielder Rhys Hoskins.  The Phillies young slugger came up through the minors as a modestly rated prospect who did nothing but mash at every level of the minors.  That continued in the majors, despite also having to learn a new position at the big league level.  Hoskins slugged 18 homers in just 50 major league games, pumping out a ridiculous 1.014 OPS.  With the Phillies signing Carlos Santana this winter, it appears they will continue to deploy Hoskins to the outfield.  Even if that goes poorly, Hoskins’ bat will force its way into the lineup on a daily basis.

With the third pick, the Jackalope were able to do both of the things mentioned above:  pick the best player available and fill a glaring hole in the roster.  They selected Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino.  Severino is technically a DTBL rookie, having never appeared on an active roster before.  But this is the second time he has been drafted.  The Naturals picked him in the 5th round in 2016, but he started the season in the minors and was released in May.  After that disappointing ’16 campaign, he was removed from the league last year, causing us to miss out on his breakout season.  In 2017, he became one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP with 14 wins and 230 strikeouts.  The Jackalope pitching staff really struggled a year ago, making Severino a perfect fit.  They are also quite heavy on Yankees now, employing Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Sonny Gray and Dellin Betances.  Not a bad group.

The top three of the draft seemed pretty clear cut.  Predicting who would go fourth and beyond was a bit more challenging.  The Choppers had the fourth pick and used it on second baseman Whit Merrifield who went from relative obscurity to fantasy monster during the course of the 2017 season.  The Royals infielder hit .288 with 19 home runs, 34 stolen bases, 80 runs and 78 RBI.  He was a plus contributor to all five categories, but especially stolen bases.  The Choppers had the worst offense in the league last year (in terms of batting points), so adding a do-it-all infielder makes plenty of sense.  It remains to be seen if the power was real, but in today’s home run climate, it seems quite possible it was.

Last year, the Moonshiners somewhat regretted passing on a young Red Sox up-and-comer in the first round in Andrew Benintendi.  They ensured that the same mistake wouldn’t be made again this year, grabbing third baseman Rafael Devers with the fifth pick.  Devers was just 20 years old when he made his MLB debut last summer.  But he earned his promotion by demolishing every level of the minors on his way up.  And the hitting continued when he reached the big leagues.  He hit .284 with 10 homers in 58 major league games.  Considering his age, the sky is the limit with this guy.  Early signs are that he is going to be a great hitter with above average power.  That should make him a fixture at hot corner for the Moonshiners for a very long time.

While hitters took most of the spotlight of the first round, there were a couple very intriguing pitchers selected as well.  The second of those was Twins starter Jose Berrios, picked sixth by the Darkhorses.  Berrios earned elite prospect status on his ascension up the minor league ladder, but a rocky MLB debut season in 2016 dampened expectations a bit.  But in 2017, he regained his status as an exciting young hurler.  He posted a solid 3.89 ERA and 1.229 WHIP with 14 wins and 139 strikeouts in 145 innings, helping lead the Twins to a surprising Wild Card berth.  He should immediately boost a Darkhorses pitching staff that finished last in ERA, WHIP and wins last season.

The Demigods selected the lone non-DTBL rookie of the first round with pick number seven.  Outfielder Ender Inciarte continues to be one of the more underrated all-around players in baseball.  With a weak Braves team around him last year, he managed to hit .304 with 11 homers, 93 runs scored and 22 stolen bases.  What a difference a year can make to a player’s stock.  The Darkhorses drafted Inciarte for the second time last year, in the 12th round.  Now he’s a first rounder.  For the record, the Darkhorses also drafted him in the fourth round in 2016.  With the investment of a first round pick, I have a feeling he will stick around for a while this time with the Demigods.

Following that selection of a DTBL “veteran”, the Cougars picked an outfielder who will be a rookie in this league, but is actually almost three years older than Inciarte.  Now 30 years old, Tommy Pham broke out big time for the Cardinals in ’17.  He hit .306 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases, becoming a legitimate five category force, seemingly out of nowhere.  This has become a consistent trend in the Cardinals organization:  late blooming non-prospects becoming excellent major league contributors.  There are plenty of reasons to believe Pham’s breakout is sustainable, most notably that he has been able to harness his degenerative vision problems.

For the second straight year, the Naturals used their first round pick on one of the top prospects in baseball who probably will spend a bulk of the upcoming season in the minors.  With the ninth pick, they selected young Nationals outfielder Victor Robles.  Considered the possible heir apparent to Bryce Harper in the Nats outfield, should Harper decide to take his talents elsewhere next winter, Robles has elite hitting, fielding and running skills.  Though not a big time slugger to this point of his career, scouts believe that will come as well.  MLB.com has him ranked as the #6 prospect in baseball and #1 among those who have already made their MLB debuts.  Robles is just 20 years old, so this is a long-term play for the Naturals.

Finally, the defending champion Mavericks closed out the first round by selecting another young hitter who splashed onto the scene late in the 2017 season, Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies.  Albies hit .286 with six home runs and eight stolen bases in 57 big league games, basically replicating the numbers he posted in AAA as a 20 year old.  So for those of you scoring at home, that’s three first round picks on guys who will enter the ’18 season at age 21 or younger (Albies, Devers, Robles).  The Mavericks don’t really have any holes, but Albies will slot in nicely at 2B.

The first round didn’t feature any trades this year, but there have been three separate deals since the first round ended, involving six different teams.  First, the Mavericks continued a revamp of their bullpen, dealing Aroldis Chapman to the Komodos for their second round pick (11th overall).  That pick was used on a very interesting pitcher, Alex Reyes.  Reyes should return from Tommy John surgery in May.  While his exact role remains a mystery, there are a few intriguing possibilities including closer or spot starter.  The fact that he will be designated as a reliever for this season could make him extremely valuable once he is healthy.  Meanwhile, Chapman gives the Komodos a reliable anchor in their bullpen which had no such commodities on the returning roster.

The next trade saw the Choppers flip their second round pick (14th overall) to the Naturals for outfielder Andrew McCutchen.  Once one of the best players in the league, McCutchen quietly put up pretty strong numbers across the board last year and will now be applying his craft in San Francisco.  As mentioned above, the Choppers needed a boost to their offense, so McCutchen should help to that end.  The Naturals used the acquired pick on the top closer in this draft, Pirates lefty Felipe Rivero, a former teammate of McCutchen’s.  Rivero had a dominant debut as a closer in ’17, saving 21 games with a 1.67 ERA and 0.889 WHIP.

The third deal was a swap of power hitters, in an attempt to clear position log jams on both ends.  The Kings dealt their longtime slugging outfielder Jay Bruce to the Cougars for first baseman Justin Bour.  On the Kings side, this was mostly a move to clear an overcrowded outfield, but also to get younger.  Trading away Bruce allowed them to select rookie outfielder Willie Calhoun with their subsequent pick, in the fifth round.  Of course, hours after they drafted Calhoun, he got sent to the minors.  But this was a future value play anyway.  Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t have much use for Bour after drafting Justin Smoak and Bruce fills a need for a power hitting outfielder.

With four rounds remaining in the draft, we should easily finish up with time to spare before Opening Day.  Thanks to everyone for keeping things moving.  I hope to start my season preview articles this upcoming weekend.  Until then, keep up the good work!

 

 

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

DTBL 25: Gators Farewell

Thursday, January 18th, 2018

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Happy 25th Anniversary!  On January 18, 1993, the later-to-be-named DTBL held its inaugural draft.  When thinking about how I would commemorate this important date in league history, I was originally planning on writing about how the league came together and what happened on this date 25 years ago.  But then it dawned on me that I already did that, exactly five years ago.  So I invite you to read that article again.  While today is the official league anniversary date, I intend to celebrate it all year long.  Yes, 2018 will be our 26th season.  But now we have 25 full years of history to look back upon.  Today, however, I am going to share some news instead.  Our 15 year run with the same 10 league members is coming to an end.  One of our original members has decided to step down.  Greg will be relinquishing control of the Gators.

Greg informed me shortly after the season that he intended to retire from the league.  He indicated that he simply doesn’t follow baseball like he used to and thus fantasy baseball had lost its appeal to him.  At that time, I told him I would give him a couple months to think it over, although it was clear he had already given it plenty of thought.  This week, he confirmed that he will be stepping down.

Greg, if you are reading this, thank you for your 25 years of service to this league.  It never would have gotten started without you and the other original members of the league.  You all were crazy enough to let me talk you into giving fantasy baseball a shot, even though none of us, myself included, really knew what we were doing in 1993.  The fact that this league still exists is definitely something I am extremely proud of.  But it wouldn’t have happened without you.  So thanks again, Greg.  You will be missed in this league, but we’ll certainly keep in touch.

When looking at the Gators franchise history, obviously they haven’t been very successful of late, but that was not always the case.  They won two DTBL championships, in 1995 and 1998, and were arguably the most dominant franchise in the league during the late 90′s.  From 1995 to 2000, they never finished worse than third place.  The ’95 championship squad was probably their strongest ever, and in the discussion as one of the most talented rosters in the league history.  They were led offensively by Mo Vaughn, Dante Bichette, plus a couple of guys who passed away far too young:  Kirby Puckett and Ken Caminiti.  The roster featured a pair of DTBL rookies who went on to become two of the best players in league history:  Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez.  The Gators ’95 draft is on the short list of best drafts any team has ever had.  In addition to the stars of that ’95 squad, some of the other Gators all-time greats include Derek Jeter, who is the only player in league history to accumulate 3,000 hits, Nelson Cruz, C.C. Sabathia, Tom Glavine and Billy Wagner. An interesting fact that I didn’t realize until looking over the Gators team page this evening is that they only finished in last place twice: their first (1993) and last (2017) seasons. Since 1994 was an expansion season, this means the only time they ever had the first pick in the draft was that inaugural year of 1993. So while there were a lot of down years towards the end of the franchise’s history, the Gators were almost never the worst team in the league.

I know plenty of people who probably would have been interested in taking Greg’s place in the league.  But it was a pretty easy decision to whom I would give the first offer.  My youngest sister, Kathleen, will be joining the league as a full member.  As you know, last year she filled in admirably for Jay while he was deployed overseas.  So now she will have full control with much more freedom to build the roster however she sees fit.  By the way, Kathleen is younger than this league!  She was born a couple weeks after that inaugural draft of ’93.  Welcome, Kathleen!  Oh, and while I’m at it, welcome back, Jay!

Since we haven’t had an ownership change in 15 years, there isn’t a lot of recent precedent on how to handle this situation.  In the past, we have not had new owners inherit existing rosters, even when there was only one new team.  However, I suggest we change that now.  Our previous “expansion” process was pretty rough on the newcomers, particularly considering how deep of a keeper league this is.  Many of you experienced that first-hand, particular Nick, who I believe is the only current league member who came into the league as a lone newcomer.  So I would understand it if you feel it is unfair for a new member to not have to go through that as well.  On the other hand, it would be *far* less work for me if we simply allow Kathleen to inherit Greg’s team as is.  And let’s be honest, she wouldn’t be taking over a stacked roster.  I am proposing that from here on out, as long as there is only one newcomer to the league, that person simply takes over the existing roster of the departing owner.  If there are multiple new members in a season, they will have a mini-draft to pick keepers from the rosters of the departed.  If anyone has a problem with my proposal, please let me know with a reply to this post, a forum post, or a direct email.  We obviously need to get this squared away pretty soon since roster cuts will be due in just a couple weeks.

There will be a whole lot more to come soon on the upcoming season and our year long 25th Anniversary celebration.  Congrats to all on a great quarter century!

 

Posted in Gators, Komodos | No Comments »

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