Archive for the ‘Darkhorses’ Category

Hall Welcomes Six Legends

Tuesday, July 29th, 2014


On Sunday afternoon, the National Baseball Hall of Fame enshrined six new members:  a trio of all-time great players and three legendary managers.  The three players, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas were all elected into the Hall in their first year of eligibility.  And the three managers, Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre are almost indisputably the three most accomplished skippers of the past 30 years.  The full class has been lauded as one of the greatest induction classes of all time.  What makes this class noteworthy for our league is that the three players are probably the first full class of inductees who would all be certain DTBL Hall of Famers as well, if such a thing existed.  Although Glavine, Maddux and Thomas made their MLB debuts prior to the formation of this league, the primes of their careers took place while on DTBL rosters.

The connection between Maddux and Glavine is obvious as long time teammates in Atlanta.  But it’s Glavine and Thomas who spent many years as teammates in the DTBL with the Kings.  Thomas and Maddux also have close ties in DTBL lore as both were first round draft picks in the inaugural DTBL Draft, making them the first official players for their respective franchises.  The Choppers picked Maddux with the second selection in that 1993 draft, following the Gators’ pick of Kirby Puckett.  So Maddux was the league’s first selected pitcher.  Two picks later, the Kings drafted the slugging first baseman Thomas.  As 13 year-olds at the time, Charlie and I may have let our personal fandoms of Maddux and Thomas sway our decisions, but neither of us would ever regret those picks.  In the seventh round of that same draft, the Kings grabbed Glavine.  He and Thomas would be Kings teammates for the first seven years of the DTBL.

Tom Glavine probably has the weakest DTBL Hall of Fame case (again, if there actually was such a thing) of these three.  However, he is one of only four players to record 200 wins in this league.  He won a total of 204 games for the Kings, Gators and Darkhorses.  He won 13+ games 10 times, a feat only accomplished more often by two other pitchers (Maddux and Mike Mussina).  Nobody has more 20 win seasons.  He did that three times (1993, 1998, 2000 – 4 others also have 3 20+ win seasons).  Glavine’s career ERA of 3.46 and WHIP of 1.317 may not seem terribly impressive by 2014 standards, but keep in mind that he was still going strong in the steroid era of the late 90′s and early 00′s.  His 1,724 career strikeouts isn’t quite enough to put him in the top 10 all-time.  When it comes to the Kings franchise record book, he’s #2 behind Randy Johnson in wins (115) and third in ERA (3.22) and strikeouts (1,048).

Glavine spent the first seven years of the DTBL with the Kings before being traded to the Gators late in the 1999 season for J.D. Drew.  15 years later, that sounds like an awful trade for the Kings, but it actually worked out quite well for both sides.  Drew wound up being a key contributor for the Kings first three championship teams while Glavine arguably recorded the best season of his career for the Gators in 2000 as he won 21 games.  He remained with the Gators until the end of the 2003 season.  The Kings reacquired him the following year as a free agent.  Finally, the Darkhorses also signed him as a free agent for the twilight of his career.  In his final DTBL season of 2007, he won his first and only league title with the Darkhorses.

There is a reasonable case to be made that Greg Maddux is the greatest pitcher in league history.  He’s certainly on the very short list.  He holds the league record for most wins with 240.  Only three retired starting pitchers have better career ERAs and WHIPs compared to Maddux’s 3.00 and 1.095.  But those numbers are slightly inflated because of mediocre numbers late in his career.  Nobody can match Maddux’s prime (well, maybe some guys in today’s pitching dominated game, but certainly not in Maddux’s era).  Even though he wasn’t thought of as a strikeout pitcher, only five have a higher career total in that category.  He is the Choppers career leader in wins and is basically tied with current Choppers’ ace Chris Sale in ERA and WHIP.  Only Mussina struck out more hitters while a member of the Choppers.

The numbers Maddux posted in 1994 and 1995 were easily the two best consecutive seasons by a pitcher in league history and, alone, were the two lowest individual ERA seasons in the books.  He had a preposterous 1.56 ERA in the strike-shortened 1994 season and followed that up with an absurd 1.63 ERA in 1995.  Oh, and his WHIP was under 0.9 both of those years as well.  Maddux won at least 15 games for 12 consecutive seasons, all with the Choppers.  That will be a tall order for anyone else to ever reproduce.  After 13 remarkable seasons with the Choppers, they finally released him after the 2005 season.  He had mediocre stints with the Naturals, Mavericks and Darkhorses (twice) to close out his remarkable career.  He was a member of four DTBL championship teams (’97 and ’99 Choppers, ’07 and ’08 Darkhorses).  So he teamed up with his Hall of Fame buddy Glavine for that ’07 title, although neither were particularly key reasons why the Darkhorses won.

The career numbers of Frank Thomas speak volumes about what kind of a hitter he was.  However, they were somewhat overshadowed by other players of his generation who would later become tarnished by connections to performance enhancing drugs.  But never mind that.  There still may not have been a better pure hitter in the 90′s than the Big Hurt.  Thomas hit 412 home runs in his DTBL career, which ranks 10th all time.  But more than half of the players ahead of him on that list have been tied to PEDs in one way or another.  Along with the home runs, Thomas had a career average of .297 with 1,323 RBI and 1,045 runs scored.  The full list of players with better career numbers in all four of those categories:  Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols and Vladimir Guerrero.  Thomas trails only the very tainted Alex Rodriguez in HR, RBI and R in Kings franchise history.

Thomas was a machine for the first five seasons of this league.  Each year, he hit over .300 with at least 35 HR and 100+ RBI and runs.  He even managed to reach those numbers in the strike shortened 1994 season.  He hit over .340 in three different seasons.  It wasn’t until very late in his career when the averages started to fall, bringing his career mark just below .300.  Unfortunately, a series of injuries in the second decade of his career really kept him from putting up numbers to rival anyone who has ever played the game.  But the Kings kept him on their roster for 13 incredible seasons.  He was a member of all four of the Kings four-peat championships (2000-2003).  He had a brief stint on the Mavericks roster in early 2006, but never recorded any playing time with them.  He did play for the Jackalope later that season.  Finally, the Kings picked him back up for his final two DTBL seasons.

Unfortunately, my historical records on awards and such from the early years of this league are a little disjointed.  So I don’t have an easy way of telling you about some of the honors these three players received during their DTBL careers.  However, I know for a fact that Thomas was the league MVP at least once and Maddux won several Cy Young awards.  Hopefully I’ll be able to fill in these blanks at some point, because this information is available somewhere on old hard drives and printed newsletters.

Finally, I want to wrap this up by mentioning a little bit about another Hall of Famer.  Sadly, the great Tony Gwynn passed away last month at the much too young age of 54.  Unlike the three players I just chronicled, the prime of Gwynn’s career was a little before this league started.  However, he also holds a special place in DTBL history.  He is the league’s all-time leading hitter (in terms of batting average) with an amazing .357 mark.  That is almost 30 points higher than any other player this league has ever seen and it is hard to imagine anyone ever breaking this record.  Despite that, Gwynn was not always an automatic starter for all of his teams in this league and bounced around to six different teams in nine years.  Of course, part of that was simply circumstances.  He wound up playing on three teams that folded while he was on the roster (Troopers, Titans and Panthers).  He played for the Gators in his first two DTBL seasons, followed by two years with the Choppers.  Despite ridiculous batting averages every season, he wasn’t a sure starter back in those days.  Because there were so few teams in the league, it was hard for some teams to dedicate a spot for a guy with below average power.  Had he put up those same numbers today, he’d be one of the most valuable players in the league.  But as it stands, he just wasn’t able to accumulate enough stats to appear in the record books for anything other than batting average.  His ability to get hits and avoid strikeouts may never be seen again in a player.  Guys who are thought of as good contact hitters today will still strike out more often the next two months than Gwynn did most full seasons.  He was a legendary hitter and will truly be missed by the baseball community.

DTBL June Awards

Thursday, July 3rd, 2014

We’re finally at the halfway point of the DTBL season, and it’s time to look at the best players up to this point. While a couple of players had ridiculous months that almost placed them in my top 5 list, I’ve decided to focus a bit more on consistency with my rankings. Sorry, Jose Altuve. I’ve again used ESPN’s Player Rater to help sort selections, particularly with Rookie of the Year. However, thanks to Kevin’s hard work with Points Above Replacement (PAR), I’ve used this stat to help with Cy Young and MVP ranks as well.To spice up the column a bit, and without giving away my entire ballot, you’ll find at the end my picks for All Star starters at every position, along with a closer. At the halfway point, it seems appropriate to recognize solid players who aren’t quite good enough to crack the top 5 at the end of year awards positions.

ROY:

1. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.950 WHIP, 2.34 ERA, 7 W, 0 SV, 103 Ks
2. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .248 BA, 57 R, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 3 SB
3. Anthony Rendon, Naturals – .281 BA, 53 R, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 6 SB
4. Yaisel Puig, Jackalope – .311 BA, 44 R, 11 HR, 45 RBI, 7 SB
5. Billy Hamilton, Naturals – .281 BA, 40 R, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 34 SB

The top three from May still reside here in the Rookie of the Year rankings. Julio Teheran has continued his stellar rookie season here in DTBL; more on him to come. Josh Donaldson and Yasiel Puig continue to put up big numbers. Anthony Rendon returns to this list after falling off in May, with 6 homers, 19 RBI, 18 runs, and a .310 batting average making up for a lackluster May.

Unfortunately, Michael Wacha (injury) and Sonny Gray have fallen off this list for now. Brian Dozier and Corey Kluber’s full season numbers would easily be worthy of Top 5 consideration; however, their late entries to their team’s major league rosters continue to keep them off. Finally, Evan Gattis had a ridiculous June with a long hitting streak and 6 homers of his own, but he, too, has fallen victim to the injury bug.

Cy Young:

1. Felix Hernandez, Jackalope – 0.919 WHIP, 2.10 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 137 Ks
2. Johnny Cueto, Demigods – 0.836 WHIP, 1.88 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 122 Ks
3. Adam Wainwright, Cougars – 0.903 WHIP, 2.01 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 105 Ks
4. Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks – 0.920 WHIP, 2.04 ERA, 9 W, 0 SV, 107 Ks
5. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.950 WHIP, 2.34 ERA, 7 W, 0 SV, 103 Ks

This list is largely unchanged from May, only seeing Clayton Kershaw’s utter dominance since returning from the DL replacing Zack Greinke. The superlatives of this group run long – top 5 in ERA. 5 of the top 6 in WHIP. Fantastic strikeout totals. Solid win amounts. Anyone in DTBL would be thrilled to have any of this quintet heading their rotation.

That being said, there is no shortage of pitchers knocking on the door of this group. Greinke. Madison Bumgarner. Jon Lester. David Price. Max Scherzer. Yu Darvish. The overall pitching talent in DTBL may never have been better than it is now.

MVP:

1. Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope – .313 BA, 57 R, 21 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB
2. Mike Trout, Mavericks – .314 BA, 54 R, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 10 SB
3. Edwin Encarnacion, Mavericks – .278 BA, 55 R, 25 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB
4. Nelson Cruz, Gators – .281 BA, 48 R, 25 HR, 66 RBI, 1 SB
5. Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals – .353 BA, 65 R, 18 HR, 47 RBI, 1 SB

Another month, another top two finish for Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout. These two players have almost identical numbers; Stanton’s slight power edge gives him the nod here over Trout’s speed. Edwin Encarnacion, after just missing in May, rightfully shows up here with his prodigious power numbers; better counting stats gives him the edge over Nelson Cruz. Finally, Troy Tulowitzki, who’s been here from the beginning, continues to ride his Coors Field numbers to an outstanding season. Hard to argue with a .353 batting average in June.

As I mentioned above, Jose Altuve raked in June. A .411 batting average. 17 steals. 11 runs and 9 RBI. He even missed three games. It was hard to leave him off this list, but consistency for the existing top 5 allowed them to hold on to their spots. If Altuve has a July even close to his June, he has a good chance of jumping into best of the best. Rounding out the just missed it group are Carlos Gomez, Michael Brantley, Paul Goldschmidt, and Victor Martinez. And, yeah, I’m still wondering when Miguel Cabrera will show up.

Here are my All Star starters.

American Divison:
C: Victor Martinez, Naturals
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope
2B: Ian Kinsler, Moonshiners
3B: Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals
OF: Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope
OF: Nelson Cruz, Gators
OF: Jose Bautista, Choppers
SP: Felix Hernandez, Jackalope
CL: Craig Kimbrel, Choppers
National Division:
C: Jonathan LuCroy, Kings
1B: Edwin Encarnacion, Mavericks
2B: Jose Altuve, Demigods
3B: Todd Frazier, Darkhorses
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Darkhorses
OF: Mike Trout, Mavericks
OF: Carlos Gomez, Demigods
OF: Michael Brantley, Cougars
SP: Adam Wainright, Cougars
CL: Trevor Rosenthal, Demigods

Comments? Disagreements? Have at it in the comment section.

DTBL May Awards

Wednesday, June 4th, 2014


Once again, it’s time to check out the best of the best in DTBL through the month of May. There were some massive months, particularly from the hitters as you’ll see below. Unfortunately, the biggest loss from the list has been Jose Fernandez due to his UCL tear and subsequent Tommy John surgery. Hopefully the injury epidemic is over for now, but this being baseball in 2014, no one seems safe.

On a more positive note, the players below are a decent mix of guys powered almost solely by an incredible May, and guys who have been consistent year round. As the season plays out, it will be interesting to watch if the streaky guys can finally maintain their play over an entire season, or if the steady mashers will rise, and stay, at the top.

All stats below are through May 31, and cover Rookie of the Year (ROY), Cy Young, and Most Valuable Player (MVP).

ROY:

1. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .280 BA, 48 R, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB
2. Yaisel Puig, Jackalope – .344 BA, 32 R, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 5 SB
3. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.932 WHIP, 1.83 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 66 Ks
4. Michael Wacha, Gators – 1.064 WHIP, 2.45 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 75 Ks
5. Sonny Gray, Jackalope – 1.122 WHIP, 2.31 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 60 Ks

There’s not much change in the rookie listings, as Donaldson, Teheran, and Gray all are carry overs from April. Yaisel Puig finally returned to his 2013 form, mashing 8 homers and driving in 25 runs while chipping in 4 steals, proving himself truly worthy of his number one overall pick this year. The other newcomer, Michael Wacha, almost made this list in April, but strong consistency vaults him past Sonny Gray in these rankings. Meanwhile, Josh Donaldson and Julio Teheran continued their stellar play from April, with Donaldson putting up almost identical numbers in May, and Teheran upping his strikeout totals to go with slightly depressed ratios.

Other rookies of note include Anthony Rendon, whose slow May dropped him off the leaderboard, Gerrit Cole, Evan Gattis, Shelby Miller, and Brian Dozier, all of whom have decent to excellent numbers in certain categories, but lack that overall excellence exhibited by the top 5.

Cy Young:

1. Johnny Cueto, Demigods – 0.758 WHIP, 1.68 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 92 Ks
2. Adam Wainwright, Cougars – 0.914 WHIP, 2.32 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 81 Ks
3. Felix Hernandez, Jackalope – 1.024 WHIP, 2.57 ERA, 7 W, 0 SV, 83 Ks
4. Zack Greinke, Naturals – 1.121 WHIP, 2.18 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 76 Ks
5. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.932 WHIP, 1.83 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 66 Ks

It’s hard to come up with words that can adequately express just how awesome the top pitches are this year. All five of these guys are bringing it in every category, tossing up video game style ratios with absurd strikeout totals. Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, and Zack Greinke, the April carryovers, have shown that their hot starts are no flukes. Felix Hernandez continues to show why everyone calls him King Felix, while Julio Teheran’s surprising rookie season is enough to vault him into the top five overall for pitchers.

Unfortunately, everyone could see that Francisco Rodriguez would come back down to earth after his impeccable start. But, even so, there are no shortage of pitchers waiting in the wings. Tim Hudson seems to have found the fountain of youth, Yu Darvish is dealing again after neck issues, Chris Sale, Kyle Lohse, and other are all dealing. The two big surprises, though, are Mark Buehrle, who’s spinning a top 10 season from the free agent list, and Jeff Samardzija, who was leading the majors in ERA through May but only had one win to show for it.

MVP:

1. Nelson Cruz, Gators – .315 BA, 39 R, 20 HR, 52 RBI, 0 SB
2. Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope – .316 BA, 40 R, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 4 SB
3. Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals – .352 BA, 45 R, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 1 SB
4. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .280 BA, 48 R, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB
5. Yaisel Puig, Jackalope – .344 BA, 32 R, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 5 SB

Nelson Cruz had a ridiculous May to jump him to the top of the MVP race. A .339 average, 13 homers, 27 RBI; all fantastic numbers. Giancarlo Stanton continues to smash the cover off the ball; one only wonders if he can stay healthy. Troy Tulowitzki continues to rake as well, with his .352 batting average still leading the majors to go along with solid stats all around.

Then come the two big surprises on this list – Josh Donaldson and Yaisel Puig. Both DTBL rookies are putting up numbers that not only lead their draft class, but compete with the numbers of the established veterans. After this point in the season, it would be no surprise to see them challenging for bragging rights as the best of the best the rest of year.

However, there is no shortage of competition for this race. The only thing keeping Edwin Encarnacion off this list was a slow April; his 16 home runs and 33 RBI in May were incredible. Carlos Gomez is the only significant power and speed guy, with 11 homers and 11 steals to go with other solid all around numbers. And there’s more, with Alexi Ramirez, Jose Bautista, Michael Brantley, and Paul Goldschmidt all waiting in the wings. In another version of the MVP list, any of those guys could be on it and they wouldn’t look out of place. Finally, Miguel Cabrera has finally remembered how to hit, and may soon take his accustomed place as a member of this elite company.

Questions? Comments? Grievances your player got left out? Feel free to leave your comments below.

DTBL April Awards

Saturday, May 3rd, 2014


In the past, there have been regular features regarding a player and pitcher of the week here in DTBL.  Unfortunately, keeping up with that arrangement for a full season is difficult.  Instead, what I’m aiming to do is do an awards column every month.  The goal will be to feature the top 5 players for each of the big DTBL categories – Rookie of the Year (ROY), Cy Young, and Most Valuable Player (MVP).

These won’t be monthly awards in that they’re honoring the top 5 every month.  Instead, they will be cumulative, to give a snapshot of who’s leading in the awards chase as the season goes on. In this way, it should be interesting to see who maintains their torrid starts, who drops off, and who comes on strong as the season goes along.

With each category, you’ll find the 5 picks along with their stats. I’ll offer some brief commentary about the players involved, and comment on surprise players who don’t make the cut. I’ll rely on ESPN’s Player Rater for rankings if players are particularly close, and to help differentiate pitchers and hitters for ROY.

All stats below are through April 30.

ROY:

1. Jose Fernandez, Demigods – 0.832 WHIP, 1.59 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 55 Ks
2. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .279 BA, 22 R, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 0 SB
3. Sonny Gray, Jackalope – 1.146 WHIP, 1.76 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 37 Ks
4. Anthony Rendon, Naturals – .316 BA, 19 R, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB.
5. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.930 WHIP, 1.47 ERA, 2 W, 0 SV, 26 Ks

In a decision that should surprise no one, Jose Fernandez claims the top spot in the ROY category. Stellar numbers across the board indicate no drop off from his stellar year last year. Josh Donaldson is one of the few bright spots on a dismal Moonshiners squad, as he’s proving worthy of his lofty draft selection. Sonny Gray’s numbers definitely overperform his draft slot; this holds true even more for Anthony Rendon, particularly as he gets bounced around various positions in the field. Finally, Julio Teheran’s ratio stats are incredible, with only wins and strikeouts holding him back from vaulting up the leaderboard.

The surprises in this field are the disappointing starts from the top two picks, Wil Myers and Yasiel Puig. Puig is starting to heat up, but Myers is definitely struggling. In fact, rookie pitchers are far outstripping rookie hitters to this point, with Michael Wacha, Andrew Cashner, and others knocking on the door. Watch out for Brian Dozier as well; he’d be on this list if not for starting the season on the Moonshiner bench.

Cy Young:

1. Adam Wainwright, Cougars – 0.778 WHIP, 1.20 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 42 Ks
2. Jose Fernandez, Demigods – 0.832 WHIP, 1.59 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 55 Ks
3. Johnny Cueto, Demigods – 0.766 WHIP, 1.15 ERA, 2 W, 0 SV, 50 Ks
4. Zack Greinke, Naturals – 1.047 WHIP, 2.04 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 46 Ks
5. Francisco Rodriguez, Naturals – 0.769 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 0 W, 11 SV, 17 Ks

For Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, and Johnny Cueto, their numbers speak for themselves. Stellar WHIPs and ERAs, tons of strikeouts. Zack Greinke is right there with them. For all these pitchers, the question is, can they stay healthy and maintain this success for an entire year?

The real surprise on this list is the return of Francisco Rodriguez. Undrafted going into the year, the Naturals picked up K-Rod off the scrap heap after the first week, and what a signing he’s been. A miniscule whip, a perfect ERA, 11 saves, and 17 strikeouts. Who knows if this renaissance will last, but he’s definitely deserving of this space through April.

There is no shortage of pitchers lurking in the shadows, however. Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer both feature stats that wouldn’t look out of place here. On the flip side, Clayton Kershaw’s absence in April has probably doomed him from being considered for the award this year, while Stephen Strasburg’s ratios are uncommonly high.

MVP:

1. Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals – .364 BA, 24 R, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB
2. Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope – .269 BA, 19 R, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 2 SB
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Darkhorses – .317 BA, 18 R, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 1 SB
4. Mike Trout, Mavericks – .321 BA, 21 R, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 4 SB
5. Albert Pujols, Jackalope – .279 BA, 21 R, 9 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB

Troy Tulowitzki’s tantalizing numbers show what he can do when healthy (and with the benefits of Coors Field). The question with him, as always: can he stay healthy? Giancarlo Stanton had a monstrous April with 8 homers and 31 RBI. One has to wonder what he could do in a smaller home park. Adrian Gonzalez has found his power again, smashing 8 homers in April; the same can be said for Albert Pujols and his 9 dingers. Of course, everyone knows what Mike Trout brings, and his inclusion on this list is no surprise.

There is no shortage of players jockeying for position behind this quintet – Alexi Ramirez, Justin Upton, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz. And while Prince Fielder of the Moonshiners has been terrible with his move to Texas, the even bigger surprise is how off Miguel Cabrera has been. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on this list next month, but 2 home runs through April is uncharacteristically poor for a two years removed from a Triple Crown.

Questions? Comments? Grievances your player got left out? Feel free to leave your comments below.

A Painful Start

Tuesday, April 29th, 2014

Darkhorses pitcher Matt Moore

For several years now, it has felt like the number of injuries has been on a steady rise in Major League Baseball. I’m sure there are facts to back this up, but I’m so certain of it, I’m not going to waste my time researching it.  (That, and I’m lazy.)  This year, we’ve reached a new high (or should I say low?). The number of players who have been sidelined due to injuries in the first four weeks of the season is staggering. Actually, this all started well before Opening Day. In March, at least a half dozen pitchers had their seasons end prematurely due to torn ligaments in their elbows. Several other pitchers have been added to that list since the season started. And now position players are dropping like flies as well. The only good thing about these injuries is that no team has been immune. Of course, the level to which each team has been decimated varies greatly. And to a slight degree, this is reflected in the current league standings.

It would be a lot quicker to list the DTBL teams who have not lost a player for the remainder of the season due to an injury. There are only three: the Choppers, Gators and Naturals. But even those three have been dealing with injuries to key players. Particularly the Choppers who just got Adrian Beltre back while Chris Sale remains disabled for at least another week and Mark Trumbo figures to miss at least another month. Those are three of their top players. The Gators are about to get Hisashi Iwakuma back in their rotation for the first time this season and they are dealing with some minor injuries to offensive players as well. The Naturals have probably been the luckiest team in the league, from a health standpoint. But even they currently have three players on the DL.

It’s kind of a disaster for the rest of the league. The two top teams from last season have both been dealing with all sorts of pitching injuries. The Mavericks knew they would be without Matt Harvey this year. But losing Clayton Kershaw after one start was a huge blow. Meanwhile, Mat Latos and Taijuan Walker are yet to make their season debuts. Same for Manny Machado offensively. The good news for the Mavericks is that all of those players are expected to return soon.  The Kings may not have had as significant of injuries early on, but the sheer volume is starting to catch up to them now. Anibal Sanchez and Jason Grilli hit the DL last week, joining teammates Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Cuddyer and Nate Jones. They also lost two draft picks to Tommy John surgery within days of their selections: Patrick Corbin and David Hernandez, who both happen to play for the Diamondbacks as well. Several other Kings are dealing with day-to-day injuries too. It isn’t pretty.

The Cougars also lost a pair of pitchers to torn elbow ligaments: Kris Medlen and Josh Johnson. They are currently dealing with injuries to two of their top sluggers in Chris Davis and Josh Hamilton. Casey Janssen hasn’t pitched yet this year either. Then there are the Darkhorses who have managed to remain near the top of the standings despite another Tommy John casualty in Matt Moore. Mike Minor will finally take a big league mound for the first time this season later this week. But their biggest blow may have come this past weekend when Bryce Harper tore a ligament in his thumb and will be out until at least early July. Oh, Russell Martin is on the DL for them too.

How about the Demigods? Well, things were looking bleak in March when Doug Fister, Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto were all dealing with injuries. But Cueto has been excellent and Hamels is back now too. Fister should return next week. So all in all, they are in decent shape. Except they too lost a pitcher, Bobby Parnell, to a torn UCL. Kole Calhoun is currently out with an ankle injury as well. The Jackalope are hopeful about the return of Aroldis Chapman who suffered quite possibly the most gruesome injury of the spring when he took a line drive to the head. On the other hand, Avisail Garcia is out for the year with a torn labrum and Jurickson Profar won’t make his season debut for at least another month. Finally, we have the Moonshiners. Just one season ending injury for them: Brandon Beachy who has undergone Tommy John surgery for the second time in three years and has pitched just 111 innings since the Moonshiners drafted him in 2012. They are also without second round pick Wilson Ramos who is recovering from a broken hand.

So there you go. That’s a pretty staggering list of injuries, but there are actually plenty of others I didn’t mention who are currently injured or have already returned from previous DL stints, including a whole bunch of current free agents.  Everyone has their own theory on why all of these injuries are occurring, particularly when it comes to the torn elbow ligaments of pitchers.  I don’t think there is a conclusive theory out there yet though.  I certainly hope some of the best minds in sports medicine and therapy will be able to figure this out eventually, because it is taking a toll on the sport to see so many of the best players having full seasons in the middle of their primes completely wiped out.

There is a little bit of good news though. Injuries usually peak early in the season and settle down as the year goes on. So there is hope for that to occur this year too. But there are already a whole bunch of players who won’t be returning until 2015. Let’s all hope for a healthier May.

2014 Season Preview: Part II

Thursday, March 27th, 2014

Naturals outfielder Billy Hamilton

Much like the teams featured in part one of the 2014 DTBL season preview, the teams we will focus on in this section would probably be disappointed to exactly meet these projections this season.  Two of these teams made big steps forward a year ago and hope to take that last step to become title contenders this season.  The third team fell off the pace a bit last year following several years as one of the league’s elite franchises and likely hopes to return to that status this year.  Here is a look at the teams that are projected to finish in the middle of the pack, fifth through seventh place.  We’ll start with the projected seventh place finisher and then move to the two teams who are slated to tie for fifth.  They will be covered alphabetically.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 4th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (9th)
  • Wins – 3rd (5th)
  • Saves – 4th (6th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th-T (7th)
  • Total Points – 7th (6th)

Summary:

Last year was an obvious improvement for the Darkhorses after finishing dead last in 2012.  They got off to a quick start and found themselves in first place for a good portion of the first quarter of the year.  But they faded a bit in the second half and finished in sixth place.  They have had a consistent core of veteran players for quite some time now, but this year they are augmenting that group with some very talented youngsters.  Their first three draft picks, Xander Bogaerts, Julio Teheran and Christian Yelich could help form the next core of great Darkhorses.  The projections show them as a slightly below average team with the bats and on the mound.  But there are reasons to be optimistic, in addition to those newcomers.  They have been extremely unlucky on the injury front in recent years, but seem to be entering this season in much better shape.  If Mike Minor is at full strength soon, he will slide into a very solid pitching staff.  On offense, they should benefit from a pair of left handed hitters moving to lefty friendly Yankee Stadium (Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann).  Also, Bryce Harper is a solid bet to take his game to a new level this year.

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (7th-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (4th)
  • Wins – 2nd (7th)
  • Saves – 1st (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (7th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (6th)
  • Total Points – 5th-T (5th)

Summary:

The Cougars were one of the surprising teams of 2013, finishing in the top half of the league for the first time in years.  This year could be an opportunity for further improvement.  The projections tell a pair of conflicting tales though.  They are projected to lead the league in pitching points but to finish dead last in hitting.  So it makes sense for that to put them in the middle of the road overall.  Their offense was a huge surprise last year, largely carried by Chris Davis’ breakout season.  They will need a couple other guys to help carry the load though, especially if Davis can’t quite duplicate his ’13 season.  A bounce-back year from Josh Hamilton would help.  The pitching staff is very, very good.  Losing Kris Medlen to Tommy John surgery hurts, but they still have Madison Bumgarner, Adam Wainwright, Gio Gonzalez and newcomers Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chris Archer.  The bullpen has a chance to be the best in the league with four guys starting the year as closers.  Can this loaded pitching staff lead the Cougars into the championship mix?

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (1st)
  • Home Runs – 8th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (2nd)
  • Wins – 9th (6th)
  • Saves – 6th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (3rd-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 6th-T (4th)
  • Total Points – 5th-T (4th)

Summary:

A fifth place finish would certainly be a disappointment for a team that has been a title contender each of the last five years.  But the Naturals have to be one of the hardest teams to predict for this season because they have the league’s biggest wild card on their roster:  first round draft pick Billy Hamilton.  ZiPS projects him to steal 68 bases, which is obviously a huge number, but seems well short of what he is capable of if he actually spends the whole year in the Reds starting lineup.  If he succeeds, the Naturals will lead the league in stolen bases after finishing ninth a year ago.  If he is unable to establish himself as a big league hitter, well, the Naturals still have Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen, so I think they’ll be okay.  Pitching is probably a bigger question mark, but looking at their rotation and bullpen, it is filled with guys who everyone would want to have on their team.  If David Price pitches like he did in the second half of last year and Matt Cain shakes off a mediocre ’13 season, the Naturals will once again have one of the best staffs in the league.  And if that happens, this projection will look kind of foolish.

Bold New Faces

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

Jackalope outfielder Yasiel Puig

Baseball is supposed to be fun.  The first few players taken in the DTBL Draft all seem to understand that.  Besides their prodigious talent, what these guys have in common is a youthful exuberance that occasionally rubs their opponents, and sometimes even their teammates, the wrong way.  But only a curmudgeon who insists that the unwritten rules of the game be followed to a T wouldn’t enjoy watching these guys play.  And when it comes to fantasy baseball, you definitely want them on your team.

The 22nd Annual DTBL Draft kicked off Wednesday morning.  Almost exactly 24 hours later, the first round was complete.  The round featured as strong of a set of young talent as we’ve seen in quite some time.  Perhaps there have been stronger drafts at the very top spot or two, but the number of young superstars taken in this draft so far has been quite impressive, and should keep the draft entertaining for several more rounds.

The Jackalope kicked things off by selecting the Cuban phenom, outfielder Yasiel Puig.  Yes, Puig Mania has made its way to the DTBL.  It took Puig all of about a week after making his MLB debut last summer before he became the talk of the league.  From the monster home runs, mind-boggling throws and blazing sprints around the bases, Puig proved himself to be the definition of a five tool player.  Sure, some of those tools are easier to harness than others.  But there is nothing he can’t do on a baseball field.  Really, the only thing that kept him from being a complete no-brainer with the first overall pick was the Jackalope’s already full outfield and perhaps a small worry about a second year flame-out.  But the decision to take Puig couldn’t have been too difficult.  In just four months in the big leagues, he hit .319 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  Most years, he would have been an absolute lock for Rookie of the Year with those numbers, but we’ll get to why that was not the case in a bit.  The sky is the limit for this guy.

With the second pick, the Gators took another young phenom outfielder in Wil Myers.  Prior to last season, he was traded from Kansas City to Tampa Bay before making his big league debut, a very rare occurrence for such a highly touted prospect.  Once he got the call to Tampa, he did not disappoint.  He slugged 13 home runs in 335 MLB at bats on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.  Myers is probably the biggest power prospect in this draft.  He doesn’t have Puig’s speed or flare, but he already looks the part as a middle of the order power hitter.  He will join a Gators offense which has gone through a remarkable makeover the past two years.  He joins Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Leonys Martin in a very exciting and young Gators outfield.

Trivia question:  which team finished second to the Kings in batting points last year.  Unless your name is Dom, you probably didn’t know the answer is the Demigods.  Only a truly dreadful pitching staff relegated them to an eighth place finish rather than being a title contender.  But was their pitching staff really that bad, or just a bit unlucky?  Well, Johnny Cueto missed a majority of the season with an injury.  Cole Hamels only won eight games despite excellent peripheral numbers.  Doug Fister was his usual solid, underrated self.  And Yu Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Enter the third pick in the draft, Jose Fernandez.  For the second straight year, the Demigods acquired the best strikeout pitcher in the draft with their first pick (Darvish last year).  Fernandez had an absolutely phenomenal rookie campaign for the Marlins.  12 wins, a sub 1.0 WHIP, 2.19 ERA and 187 strike outs.  He beat out Puig to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.  The addition of Fernandez could turn the Demigods league worst pitching staff into one of the best.  I know there is a long way to go in this draft, but if you are looking for a sleeper team this year, the Demigods would be a solid bet.

Here are three awesome GIFs of the top three draft choices enjoying their home runs… yes, including the pitcher Fernandez.  Wait, Puig’s was actually a triple, which makes it even better.  Which one is your favorite?

The fun didn’t end with the first three picks though.  With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners elected to go with the best available player, third baseman Josh Donaldson.  Last year, Donaldson pretty much came out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate, or at least he would have been if we lived in a world where Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout didn’t exist.  He hit .301 with 24 home runs and 93 RBI.  Although he figured to be an early draft pick, the Moonshiners are a bit of a surprise suitor since they already have David Wright and Kyle Seager at the hot corner.  But all of them figure to be on their Opening Day roster.  Donaldson should provide a solid boost to a strong core of Moonshiners hitters.

With the fifth pick, the Darkhorses went even younger, taking 21 year old third baseman Xander Bogaerts (he’s a couple months younger than Fernandez).  2013 was quite a year for Bogaerts.  He progressed from highly touted AA prospect, to MLB utility player, to World Series starting third baseman.  Bogaerts is considered an elite prospect because of his bat and his glove.  The former makes him an attractive fantasy prospect as well, especially since he will likely shift over to shortstop next year.  This is the kind of pick that is becoming the norm in the first round of DTBL drafts.  Highly ranked prospects don’t stay on the board very long, no matter how little experience the player has.

The Cougars were the only team to pick a non-DTBL rookie in the first round.  They selected outfielder Domonic Brown with the sixth pick.  Despite only being 26 himself, Brown is actually three years removed from his one year of DTBL experience.  He was a disappointment in that year with the Demigods and was starting to look like a bust of a former big time prospect until his breakout 2013 season.  He slugged 27 home runs with 83 RBI for the Phillies.  In the previous three seasons, he hit just 12 homers while bouncing up and down between MLB and AAA.  But now he appears to be here to stay and should give the Cougars a solid power boost in their outfield.

There was no first round pick with a wider boom-to-bust potential than the Naturals selection of speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton with the seventh pick.  Either Hamilton is going to win stolen bases for the Naturals by himself by being an every day top of the order hitter, or he is going to be too much of a liability with the bat that the Reds will use him almost exclusively as a pinch runner or send him back to the minors.  There’s almost no in between for him.  But if there is a team that can afford to take this gamble, it is the Naturals.  They have guys like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki who will pretty much assure them of finishing high in the power categories, allowing them to play a one dimensional player.  But that one dimension could be unlike anything this league has ever seen.  Hamilton has stolen over 85 bases in each of his three full professional seasons and stole 13 bases in his first 13 major league games (with just 22 plate appearances!)  This is going to be fun to watch.

With the eighth pick, the Choppers selected second baseman Matt Carpenter.  He was sort of the NL version of Donaldson, suddenly breaking out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate.  He hit .318 and led all of baseball in hits (199), runs scored (124) and doubles (55).  He doesn’t have great power or speed, but his high extra base totals led to plenty of RBI as well (78), making him an elite three category player.  If some of those doubles start going over the wall, his value could soar even more.  The Choppers were the surprise team of ’13 and appear primed to make a serious run at the title this year.  Carpenter should help them in that endeavor.

The first round ended with two more young pitchers going off the board.  The Mavericks grabbed Gerrit Cole with the ninth pick.  The first overall pick of the 2011 amateur draft, Cole reached the big leagues for the Pirates last summer and pitched extremely well.  In fact, he only got better as the season progressed.  Some were a little concerned by his mediocre strike out rate in AAA, but he was actually more effective in that regard in the majors.  And throwing his fastball in the high 90′s, it is hard to imagine him not continuing that trend this season.  This year, he will try to replace Matt Harvey as best he can for the Mavericks.  But in 2015, a rotation of Harvey, Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Mat Latos almost sounds unfair to the rest of the league.

Finally, the Kings concluded the first round by taking pitcher Shelby Miller.  For the first few months of the year, Miller was one of the best pitchers in baseball and appeared well on his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award until Fernandez and Puig burst onto the scene and stole his thunder.  Miller faded a bit in the second half and then was almost unheard from in October for the Cardinals.  But that was probably the result of going well past his previous career high in innings and maybe the Cardinals being a little cautious as well.  If he can put together a full season that resembles the first half of 2013, he will quickly become one of the league’s elite pitchers.

For the first time in six years, no first round picks were traded.  On a related note, it was the first year in quite some time that the Mavericks didn’t make multiple first round selections.  But there was one trade completed during the round.  The Kings dealt second baseman Ben Zobrist to the Gators for outfielder Michael Cuddyer.  This was a trade of excess pieces for both teams.  After drafting Myers, the Gators had six outfielders on their roster while the Kings had four middle infield keepers.  So this trade made sense for both sides to fill other needs.  Zobrist has bounced between several positions in recent years, but has returned to the infield this year where he is much more valuable.  He will provide the Gators with solid power and speed at a very thin position.  Meanwhile, Cuddyer returns to the Kings squad that drafted and then cut him just a couple years ago.  Cuddyer is coming off the best year of his career, hitting .331 with 20 home runs in 2013.

The first round was certainly a lot of fun.  Let’s see what the rest of the draft brings us.

Not That Bad

Monday, November 4th, 2013

Jackalope first baseman Paul Goldschmidt

The DTBL season ended more than a month ago, so now seems like the perfect time to finish part 3 of my 2013 season review.  The first part was a recap of the Kings’ championship season.  Part two covered the other teams who were title contenders through most of the season.  Finally, we have the other six teams who were never really in the race.  This isn’t to say that 2013 was a terrible year for all of them, just that there was a fairly noticeable gap between the top four and these six most of the year.  While a few of these teams were surely disappointed in how their season went, none of them were truly awful.  The Jackalope finished in last place, but their 35.5 points was the second highest total for a last place team in league history.  So, while none of these teams were particularly close to competing for the title this season, it is also fair to say that none of them need major reconstruction to be right in the thick of the race next year.

Of these six squads, the team that is probably most satisfied with their 2013 season is the Cougars.  They finished in fifth place, making this the first time they have finished in the top half of the league since 2004.  A much improved offense complemented an already strong pitching staff.  The main reason for the offensive surge was Chris Davis.  The second round steal led the league in home runs (53) and RBI (138).  He figures to get strong consideration in the upcoming MVP vote.  Madison Bumgarner and Adam Wainwright helped the Cougars finish second in ERA.

Another team that made great strides this year would be the Darkhorses.  As many assumed they would, they managed to bounce back from the 2012 season from hell when everything that could possibly have gone wrong did.  Luck still wasn’t completely on their side as they had to fight through a bunch of key injuries, especially early.  But finishing sixth a year after coming in last is obviously a big step in the right direction.  They more than doubled their ’12 point total as well.  Bryce Harper had a nice rookie year for the Darkhorses, but they expect even bigger things from him next year.  Keeping Hanley Ramirez healthy for an entire season will be key as well.  On the pitching side of things, it is still a bit of a work in progress, but Matt Moore and Mike Minor had solid years.

Following two teams who made big improvements this year was a team that went in the opposite direction.  The Moonshiners finished in fourth place a year ago, but were just a 1.5 points away from winning their first title.  Obviously, they had hoped to compete for the title again this year, but it wasn’t to be.  They finished in a disappointing seventh place.  Other than the surprising A.J. Burnett, all of the Moonshiners pitchers failed to meet expectations.  Well, Jered Weaver was pretty good too, but didn’t put up the kind of numbers they needed from a staff ace.  On offense, the roster actually looks pretty good, but they lacked any one player having an especially huge season.  This is really a hard team to diagnose.  They don’t look like a seventh place team.  But they are lacking that star player to take them to the next level.

The Demigods took a small step backwards this season, dropping one spot to eighth place.  Their weakness is obvious:  pitching.  They finished with just eight pitching points, the lowest total in the league.  This was a surprising result considering their first round pick, Yu Darvish, turned out to be one of the best pitchers in the league.  But the rest of the rotation was a mess and they finished the season without a closer on the roster.  The amazing thing about the Demigods is that they finished in eighth despite having the second most batting points in the league.  They got solid years out of almost all of their offensive players, led by newcomer Carlos Gomez and veterans Evan Longoria and David Ortiz.  If they can just figure out their pitching problems, they are not far from being a contender.

I’m not sure anyone is ever pleased about finishing in ninth place, but the Gators were really a much improved team over their ’12 squad which also finished ninth.  Through the draft and trades, they were able to significantly improve their weak offense and have plenty of good, young talent moving forward.  Second overall draft pick Yoenis Cespedes suffered through a bit of a MLB sophomore slump, but still put up strong fantasy numbers.  But the real steals for the Gators were a pair of shortstops:  Jean Segura (8th round) and Andrelton Simmons (4th round).  Their in-season trade to acquire Starling Marte is looking pretty solid too.  The Gators pitching staff, previously their strength, was a bit of a disappointment though.  Staff ace C.C. Sabathia had one of the worst seasons of his career.  If they can get him to bounce back next year, this will be a very dangerous team.

Finally, we have the Jackalope.  To be blunt, this season was a train wreck for them.  Just two years removed from a league championship and a year after being in the title race until the last day of the season, the Jackalope hit rock bottom this year, finishing dead last.  The offense was atrocious and the pitching staff, the league’s best the previous three years, was largely disappointing as well.  It’s not too hard to figure out why their offense struggled so much.  They were without their two best players for a good portion of the season.  Ryan Braun fought through injuries before finally serving his PED suspension.  And Albert Pujols was simply not himself at any point this season, eventually causing him to miss the last couple months of the year.  The Jackalope finished a distant last place in batting points, despite getting a breakout season from Paul Goldschmidt.  He was pretty much the lone bright spot though.  Just like the Darkhorses a year ago, it is hard to imagine this team staying down at the bottom very long though.  They have way too much talent for that.  Plus, they are going to have the first pick in an absolutely loaded draft next spring….

… Which leads me to my final thought.  All six of these teams are going to be able to add potential superstars with their first round picks next year.  I’m not going to name names, but look no further than the top MLB Rookie of the Year contenders to get an idea of what kind of talent is coming.  If those picks pan out, I won’t be writing about these teams in the “non-contenders” recap next year.

Congrats to the Red Sox on their World Series title.  With that, the off-season is officially upon us.  The 2013 DTBL Awards ballot will be posted in the next couple of days with announcements of the winners coming over the next few weeks.

A Little Deja Vu

Wednesday, April 24th, 2013

Darkhorses pitcher Matt Moore

Surprised by the Darkhorses quick start? Don’t think it can possibly last? Well, if history tells us anything about the Darkhorses, it’s that they bounce back rather quickly from rock bottom. 2012 was the third time in franchise history that the Darkhorses finished in last place. After finishing at the bottom in 2003, the Darkhorses jumped up to a third place finish in 2004, which at the time was their highest finish by a wide margin. Three years later, they made the ultimate jump in winning their first DTBL title (by 12 points) a year after finishing dead last. That kick-started four straight championship seasons. If the first three weeks of this season are any indication, the Darkhorses appear to be in the process of another remarkable turnaround.

Nobody wins a championship in April, but getting off to a good start is very important, and is especially rewarding for a team coming out of the abyss. Pretty much anything that could have gone wrong for the Darkhorses the last two years did. They have been decimated by injuries and have seen some of their star players fade into mediocre contributors at best. But this is a new year with new opportunities.

What makes the Darkhorses quick start especially impressive is that they haven’t exactly been a model of perfect health this year either. Chris Carpenter may never pitch again, which forced the Darkhorses to waive him before the season started. Draft pick Jonny Venters was also released early because of arm trouble. Ryan Madson, Hanley Ramirez and Brian McCann are yet to make their 2013 debuts. Aramis Ramirez and Aaron Hill hit the DL shortly after the season began. So from a health standpoint, it appears to be more of the same for the Darkhorses. But fortunately for them, the guys who are in uniform are putting up some impressive numbers.

The Darkhorses roster doesn’t exactly blow you away with players off to white hot starts. But their two most recent first round picks have been the biggest reason for the team’s quick start. Matt Moore is starting to show why the Darkhorses spent their first pick of 2011 on him. He has already won four games with a miniscule 1.04 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, this year’s first overall pick, Bryce Harper, continues to live up to lofty expectations. He is hitting a smooth .366 with seven home runs.

Some other key contributors include newcomers Todd Frazier, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Ernesto Frieri and Tom Wilhelmsen. Basically their entire 2013 draft class. Some regression is likely, but so far, they have been getting great performances out of just about all of their picks.

Three hold-over players deserve mentioning: Adrian Gonzalez, Tim Lincecum and Jacoby Ellsbury. Gonzalez and Lincecum may not be quite the same caliber players they were a few years back, but at least they are helping the team again. Ellsbury appears to be healthy this year and is leading the league in stolen bases.

The Darkhorses currently lead the league by ten points. The Kings are the only team within 23 points of them. So yes, it is very early. But the Darkhorses are setting a strong pace. They have 41 1/2 batting points and 41 pitching points, so it has been a full team effort thus far. Usually, a bunch of teams exchange first place through the first month of the season. But the Darkhorses have held that top spot virtually the whole time. I believe the Kings are the only other team that has been in first place since the first week of the season, and that was a brief stay.

The Darkkhorses fast start has been impressive, but not terribly surprising given the franchise’s history. Let’s see if they can keep it up.

2013 Season Preview: Part I

Saturday, March 30th, 2013

Demigods first baseman Freddie Freeman

Last year, Marc provided some very interesting team previews based on stats from multiple projection systems.  I have decided to do something similar this year, however, due to time constraints, I only used a single set of projections:  ZiPS.  I’m not an expert on these different projection models, so I have no idea if ZiPS was the best choice, but that’s what I went with.  ZiPS does not do saves projections (or if they do, it isn’t available on FanGraphs), so I used Steamer Projections for that category only.  I could write a very lengthy article on why these stat projections aren’t the greatest for predicting fantasy results, so take all of these projections with several grains of salt.  However, I also don’t like to make enemies by publishing my own predictions, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking.

Here is a brief explanation of my methodology.  I used the projections for all 28 players on each team’s roster to compute team totals in all 10 of the categories we use.  However, I didn’t want to leave it at that since there are a bunch of differences in the composition of the extra five players on each roster.  For example, it would figure that teams with a bench full of hitters would outpace teams with mostly extra pitchers in the offensive counting categories (HR, RBI, R, SB).  So what I decided to do was to multiply the team totals in those four categories by the ratio of 14 over the total number of offensive players on the roster.  Theoretically, this would mean I’m only counting full season stats for 14 players, the regular DTBL batting roster size.  I did this rather than simply subtracting players who figure to spend part/most of the season on the bench because I didn’t want to make any personal predictions on roster moves.  The biggest flaw in doing it this way is that every player contributes to the team projections, even if they aren’t expected to see much playing time.  But I think this is better than adding full season projections for every single player.

My methodology was slightly different for pitchers.  Doing it the same way as I did for hitters would have been slightly problematic because it would cause significant differences between teams with extra starting pitchers vs. teams with only extra relievers.  So instead, I calculated what the average number of innings pitched was for each DTBL team in 2012 (1,239) and assumed each team would come close to that number again this year.  So the ratio used to multiply the counting categories (W, SV, K) was 1,239 divided by the team’s projected innings total.  The biggest flaw here is with teams that plan on using an extra starting pitcher in a RP slot.  It is safe to assume those teams will accumulate more innings, but these projections assume the team IP totals are all the same.  So that is another caveat to consider when diagnosing your team’s projections.

Despite the flaws, I do believe these projections can be useful in identifying relative strengths and weaknesses of each team.  Perhaps I will share the full projections when I finish with the team previews.  In these previews, I will provide the team’s projected ranking in each category as well as the overall predicted order of finish.  Then I will give some of my own thoughts about the team, and perhaps explain some instances where I feel the projections are wrong.  I will go in the reverse order of the predicted standings, doing a few teams each day for the next few days.  So, without further ado, here is the team projected to finish in last place…

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (3rd)
  • Wins – 6th (9th)
  • Saves – 1st (2nd-T)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th-T (4th)
  • Total Points – 10th (9th)

Summary:

Obviously, nobody wants to be last in a projection.  However, despite the 10th place prediction, there are encouraging signs for the Gators.  First, they just completed their best draft in many years, acquiring some very good, young talent with players like Yoenis Cespedes, Will Middlebrooks and Andrelton Simmons.  Next, they are projected to finish with 41 points, which would be an improvement over last season.  They have had the worst offense in the league three years running, but there is a decent chance that streak will stop this year.  Almost all of the offensive players they drafted this year will be upgrades over their counterparts from 2012.  The pitching projections are a little surprising because the Gators had a very underrated staff a year ago.  They still have the deepest stable of closers in the league.  Their rotation is a big question mark, but there is potential to meet or exceed last year’s numbers.  I think this will be a much improved Gators squad, even if the place of finish doesn’t necessarily reflect that.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 9th (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (9th)
  • Wins – 2nd (8th)
  • Saves – 10th (5th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th-T (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (9th)
  • Total Points – 9th (7th)

Summary:

Last year, the Demigods championship hopes were sabotaged by a weak pitching staff.  If these projections are to be believed, that could be the case again this year.  However, this is one team where my methodology for computing the pitching stats was harmful because it appears they will use a sixth starting pitcher (Brett Myers), meaning their wins and strike out totals should be higher than projected.  Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish and Johnny Cueto form a pretty solid top three, but the rest of the staff will need to exceed expectations.  They only have one closer, Brandon League, who could lose his job any minute.  So saves appears to be a write off category.  Offensively, the Demigods have a solid squad, but they need to stay a lot healthier than they did last year.  Look for huge seasons out of Matt Kemp, Evan Longoria and Buster Posey.  Freddie Freeman is a major breakout candidate too.  9th place would be a pretty big disappointment considering how much talent is on this roster.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2012 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd-T (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (10th)
  • Wins – 9th (10th)
  • Saves – 3rd (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (10th)
  • Total Points – 8th (10th)

Summary:

It has been two long years since the Darkhorses 4-peat.  Last year in particular, was one long nightmare in which everything that could have possibly gone wrong did.  They nearly set the low water mark for total points and finished dead last in all five pitching categories.  There is no way to go but up from there.  And this team is a safe bet to do just that.  But the injuries are already starting to mount up, starting with the news that Chris Carpenter may never pitch again, which came out not long after our roster cuts were made.  Relief pitchers Ryan Madson and Jonny Venters are also headed to the DL to start the year.  And on offense, Brian McCann and Hanley Ramirez will miss significant time to begin the season.  Their healthy pitchers are mostly high strike out guys who hope to improve their ERA and WHIP numbers.  A strong comeback year for Tim Lincecum would go a long way towards fixing this team.  I’m not sure what to think about the Darkhorses offense, but we saw last year how quickly one young superstar can turn around an entire squad (Mike Trout, Mavericks).  The Darkhorses hope to get a similar boost from Bryce Harper.  He just may be up to the task.  Hopefully, these early injuries won’t bury the Darkhorses before they ever get started, but I think they will certainly improve upon last year’s disaster.

That’s it for tonight.  Tomorrow, I’ll run down at least three more teams and finish things up on Monday and Tuesday.

Enjoy tomorrow night’s MLB opener and have a happy Easter!