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A Family Affair

Tuesday, March 10th, 2020

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Trivia time!  What do Fernando Tatis, Vladimir Guerrero, Dante Bichette and Craig Biggio all have in common?  If you guessed that they all hit at least .290 with 15+ home runs for their respective DTBL teams in 1999, you are correct!  Oh, and they also all have sons who were selected in the first 15 picks of the 2020 DTBL Draft.  This league has been around long enough that we had already seen a few sons of former DTBL players become second generation league members.  But in the previous instances, the fathers only had a cup of coffee in this league at the tail end of their careers.  This four-some is different.  All four compiled multiple strong seasons in the league and all but Tatis were among the league’s best players in its first 10-15 years.

Interestingly, it is the least accomplished father of those four whose son enters the league with the highest acclaim.  The Demigods selected the do-it-all shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. with the first pick in the draft.  Tatis hit .317 with 22 homers and 16 stolen bases in a MLB rookie campaign that was cut short by injury.  Provided he has a full year of solid health in 2020, it isn’t unreasonable to think he could be the second straight #1 draft pick to post a 30/30 season in his DTBL rookie year.  The Demigods will turn to Tatis to help put their miserable 2019 behind them.  Keep in mind that prior to last year, this is a team that finished in the top half of the standings in five straight seasons.  Tatis has the talent to lift them back up to their recent historic norms.

While Tatis was spectacular last year, he probably wouldn’t have won the NL Rookie of the Year award even if he had stayed healthy.  Not with Pete Alonso breaking the MLB all-time rookie record for home runs.  Alonso slugged 53 homers, which would have led the DTBL by four had he been in the league a year ago.  His 120 RBIs would have been fourth best in the league.  He was worthy of the second overall pick in the draft on his own merit, but he also happens to be an ideal fit for the Choppers who finished next to last in home runs and RBIs and dead last in total batting points a year ago.  This is the third straight year the Choppers have used their first pick on an infielder.  Alonso figures to have the biggest impact of them all.

The Komodos made it consecutive 2019 MLB Rookie of the Year winners when they selected Astros outfielder/DH Yordan Alvarez with the third pick.  Alvarez crashed the AL rookie party that was supposed to be all about a couple guys that will be covered below.  He hit .317 with 27 home runs and 78 RBIs despite not making his debut until June.  Had he been in the majors from the jump like Alonso, perhaps he too could have challenged the rookie home run record.  Alvarez is currently sidelined with a knee issue.  But assuming that doesn’t keep him out of action too long, he figures to be one of the league’s top sluggers.  He will join Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Nelson Cruz and Jose Ramirez to form what could be a sneaky great Komodos offense.

Sneaky great is also an appropriate way of describing Keston Hiura’s young MLB career.  The Jackalope tabbed the Brewers second baseman with the fourth pick.  In 84 games, Hiura managed to hit .303 with 19 homers and nine stolen bases.  Extrapolate those numbers out to a full season and you could have the makings of a stud at a very weak offensive position.  The Jackalope have had one of the league’s best infields for a while now, but Hiura injects it with a needed shot of youth.  The spring is not off to a great start from a health perspective for the Jackalope.  Hiura could help cure much of what ails them, however.

Only one player selected in the first round won’t be making his DTBL debut this season.  Lucas Giolito was signed as a free agent by the Mavericks late in the 2017 season and was subsequently released prior to 2018, when the Mavericks picked him up again in the seventh round of the draft.  But he was released again by the Mavericks that May and had such a poor season that he got dropped from the league last year.  2019 Giolito was basically a brand new pitcher, making the All-Star team and compiling a Cy Young campaign resume.  The pitcher the Cougars drafted with the fifth pick this year really doesn’t resemble the one who pitched for the Mavericks.  In ’19, Giolito posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, won 14 games and struck out an impressive 228 batters in 177 innings.  The Cougars pitching staff prevented them from being serious contenders a year ago.  Giolito could help change that.

A year ago, it seemed like a near certainty that I would be writing about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being the first player taken in the 2020 draft.  Not that some of these other guys weren’t highly touted prospects, but Guerrero was at a different level.  His MLB debut became a must-see event, unlike any player I can recall since Bryce Harper.  That incredible, and probably unfair, level of hype made his 2019 season seem a little underwhelming.  He hit .272 with “only” 15 homers.  Here’s another number that is equally relevant though:  21.  That’s the age Guerrero will turn next week.  What Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto have done in their teens/very early 20s just isn’t normal.  Struggling to get your footing in the big leagues like Guerrero did *is* normal.  I have it on good authority that the Moonshiners were shocked and thrilled to grab him with the sixth pick in this draft.  If Vladito does in fact reach his potential, we’ll all look back on this pick and wonder how it came to be.

The Mavericks were also probably quite surprised about the availability of their first round pick.  They selected slugging outfielder Eloy Jimenez with the seventh pick.  Much of what I wrote about Guerrero applies to Jimenez as well, although he is a little older and did wind up posting pretty solid numbers thanks to a strong finish to the 2019 season.  31 home runs and 79 RBIs are impressive totals for a rookie and could be viewed as the floor of what to expect from here on out.  He seems a good bet to improve on the .267 average too.  Assuming good health, the Mavericks outfield is absolutely ridiculous.  Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Nick Castellanos and now Jimenez.  The rest of the roster ain’t too shabby either.

The Beanballers first official selection as a member of the DTBL was another flashy young shortstop who is the son of a former DTBL player, Bo Bichette.  Bichette has the fewest big league games under his belt of this first round group, but he made his short stint in the big leagues count.  In just 46 games, he hit .311 with 11 homers.  While not directly fantasy relevant, he also had 18 doubles.  So the extra base power appears to be legit.  With a new league member, it is hard to predict what the draft strategy might be.  In this case, it looks like the Beanballers went with the best young talent available, because shortstop was not a position of need with Trea Turner and Amed Rosario already on the roster.  You can’t go wrong with a middle infielder with huge upside though.  Bichette joins a roster with plenty of talent, so it will be interesting to see how the Beanballers do on their maiden voyage.

Seven of the first eight selections were hitters.  We finally saw a rookie pitcher go off the board when the Darkhorses selected Chris Paddack at #9.  While still at the very beginning of his career, Paddack already has an advanced repertoire, which he used to compile some gaudy numbers in 2019.  His sub 1.00 WHIP and 3.33 ERA were pretty incredible for a first season in the majors.  This selection made all the sense in the world for the Darkhorses, who have fallen a little short of the champion Kings the past two seasons because they didn’t have quite enough pitching.  Paddack will join Jacob deGrom, Patrick Corbin and Jose Berrios in a rotation that seems quite capable of closing that gap and claiming their first DTBL title in 10 years.

The Kings probably would have drafted any of the nine players selected ahead of them if they had fallen to the last slot in the first round.  Instead, they settled for a pitcher with very intriguing stuff, but also one who missed half of the 2019 campaign with a PED suspension.  Athletics hurler Frankie Montas was the final pick of the first round of the 2020 DTBL Draft.  Before the suspension, Montas was electric.  He struck out more than a batter per inning with a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  While starting pitching has been the Kings strength in their recent championship runs, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer aren’t getting any younger.  So they will turn to Montas as a potential ace in waiting.  In the meantime, he will join those guys in a rather formidable rotation.

A quick note on one second round selection referenced up top:  the Cougars selected second baseman Cavan Biggio with the 15th overall pick.  This connection is intriguing since Cavan’s father Craig was also a second baseman on the first two Cougars championship squads and was an all-time great for both the Cougars and Choppers.

After a bit of a slow start, we’ve hit our stride the past few days and are now on a great pace.  We should have plenty of time between the conclusion of the draft and Opening Day.  Keep up the good work!

Posted in Beanballers, Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners | 2 Comments »

DTBL Best of the Decade

Tuesday, December 31st, 2019

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The 2010s marked a decisive change from the first decade of this millennium in the DTBL.  The previous decade saw two teams dominate the landscape with the Kings opening it up with four straight titles from 2000-2003 and the Darkhorses doing the same from 2007-2010.  This decade, half of the franchises won at least one championship and only the 2019 Kings were able to successfully defend a title.  The 2010s started with arguably the craziest season in league history as the Darkhorses and Naturals became the first co-champions.  Two years later, the Naturals were involved in another epic finish as they just barely edged out three other teams to win another title.  The second half of the decade belonged to the Kings, as they have now won three of the past four championships.

As we enter a new decade, it is time to take a look back at the past 10 years in the DTBL.  Here are some of the best teams and players of the 2010s.

Franchise of the Decade:  Kevin’s Kings

It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Kings in the 2010s.  In 2013, they were able to put an end to their ten year title drought, barely edging out the Mavericks for the fifth championship in franchise history.  The remainder of the decade was pretty crazy for them.  Three times, they finished in the bottom half of the standings, including a dreadful last place finish in 2015 and a ninth place finish in 2017.  But they somehow managed to turn each of those poor years into a championship run the following year.  All told, they won four championships in the decade, the most of any franchise.  They weren’t the most consistent franchise, but titles are what matter most and nobody had more of them than the Kings.  The clear second choice for this honor would be the Naturals who won three titles, all coming in the same years the Giants won the World Series (2010, 2012, 2014).

Team of the Decade:  2015 Jay’s Jackalope

The Jackalope made their championships count.  Both of their title winning seasons were among the most impressive this league has ever seen.  It is difficult to compare teams from different seasons since so much of fantasy success is relative to the competition.  So simply going with the team with the most standings points doesn’t necessarily make them better than title winning teams from other years.  What sets apart the 2015 Jackalope, and their 2011 squad too for that matter, was the manner in which they dominated the rest of the league.  They won the league by a record breaking 19 points over the Mavericks.  The Jackalope offense was led by MVP winner Josh Donaldson and runner-up Paul Goldschmidt.  Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta led the pitching staff and won both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, giving the Jackalope a clean sweep of the three major awards.  The year started with the Jackalope making some major March trades, dealing away franchise icons Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke.  But in return, they acquired Josh Donaldson, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, all of whom continue to reap benefits for them today.  It was one of the most impressive roster shake-ups we’ve ever seen.  Honorable mention in this category could go to a bunch of different teams.  Certainly the 2011 Jackalope who also won the league by double digits, the 2014 Naturals who set the record for most total points (89), the 2019 Kings who successfully defended their title with a much stronger season in the follow-up, and the 2017 Mavericks who finally cashed in a championship to go along with their historically dominant pitching staff for much of the decade.

Player of the Decade:  Mike Trout, Mavericks (2012-2019)

This was about as easy of a decision as you will find.  Mike Trout has been in the DTBL for eight seasons now.  In all eight seasons he has made the All-Star team and received MVP votes.  Shockingly, he only has one MVP award to his name so far.  But he has finished in the top five of that vote six times, including each of his first five seasons.  He also won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012.  In the 2010s, he led all DTBL players in PAR (71.0) by more than 20 points.  His decade ranks in the five offensive categories:  .308 average (5th), 280 home runs (3rd), 736 runs batted in (14th), 882 runs scored (1st), 195 stolen bases (7th).  Keep in mind that many players had a two year head start over him in the counting categories.  In 2015, his worst season according to PAR, he hit .299 with 41 home runs.  A second round pick by the Mavericks in 2012, Trout holds the franchise career record in homers, runs and stolen bases and is second in RBI.  Nobody else really garnered any consideration for this honor, but let’s just say Paul Goldschmidt was the runner-up.

Pitcher of the Decade:  Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks (2010-2019)

This was a pretty easy choice too, and yes, it is another Maverick.  In the 2010s, Clayton Kershaw won a pair of Cy Young awards, finished in the top four for that award seven straight years and made seven DTBL All-Star teams.  His numbers during the four year stretch of 2013-2016 were downright silly, posting ERAs below 2.00 in three of those years.  He won the Cy Young in 2013 and 2014 with ERAs of 1.83 and 1.77.  He posted a double digit PAR for seven straight seasons (2011-2017).  For the decade, his 2.30 ERA and 0.961 WHIP were easily the best among qualified starting pitchers.  His 154 wins ranked third as did his 2,131 strikeouts.  Somehow, the Mavericks nabbed him in the sixth round of the 2009 draft.  He is the franchise leader among starting pitchers in every relevant category.  Two other pitchers had similarly great decades:  the Kings veteran duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  But unlike those two, Kershaw was an elite performer for the entire decade.  Scherzer didn’t really reach that level until 2013 and Verlander had some down years in the middle of the decade.

 

Now let’s move onto the All-Decade players.  I’ve selected 46 players and split them into first and second teams.  Unlike the honors I’ve bestowed above, these selections were mostly objective.  I went with the players who accumulated the highest PAR in the decade, with exceptions at two positions:  catcher and relief pitcher.  Because even some above average performers at those positions have trouble accumulating positive PAR, I didn’t want to ding players for longevity in which some negative PAR years may have dragged their total down.  Also, I didn’t want to reward a few closers who have had just a couple great years, enough to put them near the top of the PAR leaderboard.  So I looked at the full set of numbers to make my decisions at those two positions.  For players who changed positions throughout the course of the decade, they were classified at whichever position they appeared in the most seasons.  Without further ado, here are 46 of the best players from the 2010s.

 

First Team All-Decade

C – Victor Martinez (Naturals ’10-’15, Mavericks ’16, Kings ’17):  .301 AVG, 115 HR, 504 RBI, 389 R, 5 SB, 10.8 PAR

C – Buster Posey (Demigods ’11-’19):  .302 AVG, 118 HR, 590 RBI, 521 R, 23 SB, 4.8 PAR

1B – Paul Goldschmidt (Jackalope ’12-’19):  .294 AVG, 235 HR, 781 RBI, 778 R, 123 SB, 51.0 PAR

2B – Jose Altuve (Demigods ’12-’19):  .316 AVG, 125 HR, 514 RBI, 693 R, 240 SB, 43.0 PAR

3B – Nolan Arenado (Naturals ’14-’19):  .298 AVG, 215 HR, 677 RBI, 574 R, 13 SB, 42.2 PAR

SS – Francisco Lindor (Demigods ’16-’19):  .284 AVG, 115 HR, 327 RBI, 423 R, 81 SB, 28.3 PAR

1B/3B – Miguel Cabrera (Naturals ’10-’18, Mavericks ’19):  .317 AVG, 265 HR, 928 RBI, 783 R, 14 SB, 43.2 PAR

2B/SS – Robinson Cano (Kings ’10-’19):  .302 AVG, 227 HR, 851 RBI, 791 R, 34 SB, 38.4 PAR

OF – Mike Trout (Mavericks ’12-’19):  .308 AVG, 280 HR, 736 RBI, 882 R, 195 SB, 71.0 PAR

OF – Nelson Cruz (Mavericks ’10-’11, Gators ’12-’17, Komodos ’18-’19):  .283 AVG, 338 HR, 941 RBI, 761 R, 49 SB, 47.6 PAR

OF – Mookie Betts (Kings ’15-’19):  .302 AVG, 134 HR, 447 RBI, 575 R, 116 SB, 41.3 PAR

OF – Andrew McCutchen (Naturals ’10-’17, Choppers ’18-’19):  .286 AVG, 219 HR, 763 RBI, 864 R, 165 SB, 40.7 PAR

OF – Ryan Braun (Jackalope ’10-’19):  .295 AVG, 236 HR, 796 RBI, 753 R, 164 SB, 40.3 PAR

DH – Edwin Encarnacion (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11, Mavericks ’12-’14, Darkhorses ’15-’19):  .265 AVG, 307 HR, 883 RBI, 752 R, 39 SB, 42.3 PAR

SP – Clayton Kershaw (Mavericks ’10-’19):  2.30 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 154 W, 0 SV, 2,131 K, 112.6 PAR

SP – Max Scherzer (Jackalope ’10, Kings ’10-’19):  3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 155 W, 0 SV, 2,348 K, 98.3 PAR

SP – Justin Verlander (Kings ’10-’19):  3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 159 W, 0 SV, 2,210 K, 95.5 PAR

SP – Zack Greinke (Jackalope ’10, Naturals ’11-’14, Moonshiners ’15-’19):  3.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 152 W, 0 SV, 1,852 K, 75.1 PAR

SP – Chris Sale (Naturals ’11, Choppers ’12-’19):  3.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 102 W, 6 SV, 1,907 K, 68.9 PAR

RP – Craig Kimbrel (Choppers ’11-’19):  2.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 27 W, 344 SV, 855 K, 34.6 PAR

RP – Kenley Jansen (Mavericks ’11-’19):  2.35 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 29 W, 295 SV, 827 K, 32.1 PAR

RP – Aroldis Chapman (Mavericks ’11, ’15-’17, Jackalope ’12-’14, Komodos ’18-’19):  2.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27 W, 271 SV, 796 K, 27.2 PAR

RP – Jonathan Papelbon (Kings ’10-’15, Jackalope ’15-’16):  2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 27 W, 217 SV, 462 K, 8.8 PAR

 

Second Team All-Decade

C – Yadier Molina (Choppers ’10-’16, Cougars ’17-’19):  .289 AVG, 120 HR, 645 RBI, 500 R, 53 SB, -0.1 PAR

C – J.T. Realmuto (Darkhorses ’16-’19):  .282 AVG, 73 HR, 266 RBI, 290 R, 32 SB, 5.6 PAR

1B – Joey Votto (Naturals ’10-’19):  .306 AVG, 229 HR, 745 RBI, 825 R, 66 SB, 38.2 PAR

2B – Ian Kinsler (Moonshiners ’10-’16, Jackalope ’17-’18):  .268 AVG, 163 HR, 609 RBI, 835 R, 148 SB, 28.5 PAR

3B – Adrian Beltre (Choppers ’10-’18):  .307 AVG, 226 HR, 781 RBI, 691 R, 10 SB, 34.9 PAR

SS – Trea Turner (Naturals ’16-’19):  .292 AVG, 60 HR, 199 RBI, 306 R, 145 SB, 28.1 PAR

1B/3B – Freddie Freeman (Demigods ’12-’19):  .296 AVG, 199 HR, 698 RBI, 699 R, 39 SB, 36.2 PAR

2B/SS – Brian Dozier (Moonshiners ’14-’19):  .245 AVG, 157 HR, 437 RBI, 521 R, 77 SB, 22.2 PAR

OF – Charlie Blackmon (Cougars ’15-’19):  .309 AVG, 142 HR, 389 RBI, 561 R, 87 SB, 37.3 PAR

OF – Bryce Harper (Darkhorses ’13-’19):  .278 AVG, 197 HR, 576 RBI, 607 R, 70 SB, 35.1 PAR

OF – Christian Yelich (Darkhorses ’14-’19):  .304 AVG, 134 HR, 481 RBI, 550 R, 111 SB, 34.8 PAR

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (Jackalope ’11-’19):  .268 AVG, 278 HR, 701 RBI, 627 R, 36 SB, 34.4 PAR

OF – Carlos Gonzalez (Kings ’10-’17):  .293 AVG, 197 HR, 648 RBI, 638 R, 97 SB, 33.7 PAR

DH – Albert Pujols (Jackalope ’10-’14, Mavericks ’15, ’18, Choppers ’16-’17, Darkhorses ’18):  .272 AVG, 250 HR, 813 RBI, 630 R, 49 SB, 34.6 PAR

SP – David Price (Naturals ’10-’18, Komodos ’19):  3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 134 W, 0 SV, 1,804 K, 62.4 PAR

SP – Madison Bumgarner (Cougars ’11-’19):  3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 111 W, 0 SV, 1,664 K, 59.9 PAR

SP – Felix Hernandez (Jackalope ’10-’14, ’18, Moonshiners ’15-’17):  3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 104 W, 0 SV, 1,595 K, 52.1 PAR

SP – Jon Lester (Naturals ’10-’12, Choppers ’13-’19):  3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 144 W, 0 SV, 1,773 K, 51.0 PAR

SP – Corey Kluber (Demigods ’14-’19):  2.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 83 W, 0 SV, 1,238 K, 50.9 PAR

RP – Francisco Rodriguez (Moonshiners ’10-’11, Mavericks ’12, Naturals ’14, Kings ’15-’17):  3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 23 W, 181 SV, 407 K, 7.0 PAR

RP – Greg Holland (Gators ’12-’13, Naturals ’13-’17, Komodos ’18, Mavericks ’19):  3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 14 W, 198 SV, 428 K, 4.5 PAR

RP – David Robertson (Cougars ’12-’19):  2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 31 W, 127 SV, 515 K, 8.1 PAR

RP – Roberto Osuna (Moonshiners ’16-’19):  2.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 13 W, 134 SV, 270 K, 13.8 PAR

 

I thought about writing a short blurb for each player above, but decided that would take far too much time.  Here are a couple links to leaderboards for the decade, for your perusal:

Batters

Pitchers

Feel free to chime in below if you feel some player(s) were snubbed.  What an amazing decade it was in the DTBL.  Here’s to the 2020s being just as great.  Happy New Year!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Gators, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

Verlander Back on Top

Monday, November 25th, 2019

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The current decade began with Justin Verlander as one of the best pitchers in baseball. A few years later, he appeared to be a pitcher in decline. Not surprising for someone who was on the wrong side of 30. But then in 2016, he began to return to his old form. By the time he was traded from Detroit to Houston in 2017, he was basically back to being one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. That late career resurgence was taken to a new level in 2019. This year, he recorded a career high in strikeouts and won over 20 games for the first time since 2011. The longtime Kings right-hander was a major contributor to the team winning their second consecutive DTBL Championship. Justin Verlander is the 2019 DTBL Cy Young award winner.

The 2019 season saw DTBL pitchers compile a 3.87 ERA, the highest cumulative ERA since 2006.  Despite the improved offensive environment in baseball, Verlander managed to compile one of the best seasons of his career.  His 2.58 ERA was fourth best in the league.  But he was the league leader in WHIP (0.80) and wins (21).  He struck out exactly 300 batters, a career high.  Only his Astros teammate Gerrit Cole topped him in whiffs.  His 17.3 Pitching PAR is a new record (among seasons that have been calculated).  In fact, Cole’s 16.4 also surpassed the old record, previously held by… Verlander in 2011.  Verlander and Cole became just the fourth and fifth DTBL pitchers to record 20+ wins and 300+ strikeouts in a season, joining Pedro Martinez (1999), Randy Johnson (2001, 2002) and Curt Schilling (2002).  Verlander’s 0.80 WHIP is the second lowest among qualified pitchers in league history, trailing just Martinez’s ridiculous 2000 season (0.74).  He clearly had one of the greatest pitching seasons this league has ever seen.

To the best of my knowledge, Verlander has set a record for longest gap between Cy Young wins.  He is a second time winner, also receiving the award in 2011.  That 2011 campaign is the only other on his resume that could possibly be compared favorably to 2019, though he did finish third for the award just last season as well.  Originally drafted by the Demigods in 2007, he was dropped by them following a very rough 2008 season.  The Kings selected him in the third round in 2009 and have been reaping the benefits ever since.  Although they also came close to dropping him following his mediocre 2014 and 2015 seasons.  All told, he is a six time All-Star and now a two time Cy Young winner.  His case for one of the top pitchers in DTBL history is an easy one to make.  Earlier this season, he became just the fifth pitcher to reach the 200 win plateau and currently sits tied with Tom Glavine for fourth all-time.  He is third on the career strikeout leaderboard.  With a decent season in 2020, he should move up to second, trailing only Randy Johnson.  And he has a pretty good chance of joining Johnson as the only DTBL pitchers to record 3,000 strikeouts.  Speaking of Johnson, the Big Unit is the only pitcher ahead of Verlander on the Kings all-time wins and strikeouts lists as well. Verlander has now been a key piece of three different Kings title winning squads (2013, 2018, 2019).

As expected, this Cy Young race turned into a two way battle between Astros teammates.  Verlander and Cole were the only two pitchers to receive first place votes.  Verlander grabbed seven of them and was placed second on the other three ballots for a total of 91 points.  The Jackalope’s Cole probably would have won this award had he put up his same numbers any other season.  He ever so slightly trailed Verlander in wins, WHIP and PAR.  But he had a slightly lower ERA and 26 more strikeouts.  He received three first place votes and six seconds.  That garnered him 77 points, putting him significantly ahead of everyone but Verlander.  This shook out similarly to the AL Cy Young race where Verlander also edged Cole.  On the other hand, the two time defending NL Cy Young award winner, Darkhorses righty Jacob deGrom, is still looking for his first DTBL Cy Young.  He led the league in ERA (2.25), but trailed Verlander and Cole in the other categories.  DeGrom was the majority choice for third place, receiving six of those votes and a point total of 42.  Coming in fourth was another veteran pitcher who had arguably the best season of his career.  The Mavericks’ Stephen Strasburg recorded a career high 18 wins and 251 strikeouts before cementing his status as an elite postseason pitcher as he helped the Nats win the World Series.  Strasburg received one second place vote and appeared on all ten ballots, finishing with 26 points.  Those were the four pitchers who appeared on every ballot, but the fifth place finisher received significant support as well.  Moonshiners veteran Zack Greinke has experienced a bit of a career resurgence in his own right.  He had his best season since 2015.  Greinke appeared on eight ballots and tallied 14 points.  So three of the top five finishers completed the season as members of the Astros rotation.  And building off a year-long theme of veteran starters leading the way, four of these five pitchers are over 30 years old and none are younger than 29.

Click here to view the full voting results.

You can expect the Most Valuable Player award winner to be announced on Wednesday. That figures to be an extremely competitive race as three players, in particular, have incredibly strong cases to be made for the honor.

Posted in Awards, Kings | No Comments »

Kings Retain Their Crown

Saturday, October 12th, 2019

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The 2018 Kings were a very flawed team that rode a couple superstars to best a weak field and won a league championship.  2019 was a much different story.  The improved Darkhorses had one of the best offensive seasons in league history.  In order to beat them, the Kings needed a lot more than one or two guys to carry the offensive load.  And they got just that.  But once again, it was an untouchable pitching staff that ultimately led the charge.  For the first time since 2010 when the Darkhorses finished off their four-peat, sharing the league title with the Naturals, a team was able to successfully defend their title.  For the eighth time in franchise history, Kevin’s Kings are the Dream Team Baseball League champions.

The Kings got off to a bit of a slow start, finding themselves in the middle of the pack for most of the first two months.  But by early June, they had claimed first place and rarely gave it up after that.  The Darkhorses were right on their tail most of the way, but the Kings grabbed first for good on August 17.  Much like last year, it was pretty much a two horse race between the Kings and Darkhorses.  But unlike last year, it was a race between two very strong teams.  The 77 points the Darkhorses accumulated would have been enough to win the league the previous three seasons.  The Kings finished with 84 points, which is the highest total since the Jackalope juggernaut of 2015.  Obviously, it takes a well-rounded team to rack up a point total like that.

Mookie Betts was basically the lone offensive star for the 2018 Kings.  He was great again this year, but had plenty of help.  Without looking it up, I bet you wouldn’t have been able to name the Kings leader in batting PAR this season.  The answer:  Jonathan Villar.  Villar has long been an underappreciated fantasy performer, but he took things to a whole new level this season.  He led the league with 40 stolen bases, hit a career high 24 home runs and even managed to score 111 runs on a terrible Orioles team.  He is the first DTBL player to put up a 20/40 season since Carlos Gomez in 2013.  Villar’s 8.2 PAR led the Kings squad, but a couple other guys were right behind him.  Betts wasn’t quite the same player he was in ’18 when he claimed the league’s MVP award, but he was still pretty darn good.  He hit 29 homers while stealing 16 bags and led the league in runs scored, despite missing some time with nagging injuries.  Besides Villar, perhaps the most surprising offensive star for the Kings was Marcus Semien.  He set career highs pretty much across the board, hitting 33 homers with 92 RBIs and 123 runs.  His 7.2 PAR more than tripled his previous high water mark.  Interestingly, Villar and Semien were both back half of the draft selections by the Kings in 2018.  It took a while, but those picks have paid off in a big way.  There were other sneakily impressive players for the Kings offense.  Matt Olson and Trey Mancini slugged 30+ homers.  It was the overall quality of depth that the Kings had which made this a much improved group.

But let’s not get too carried away gushing about the Kings offense.  Because in the end, it was once again the pitching staff that won them the championship.  Until the very last few days of the season, it appeared they were going to pull off something no team has ever done:  finishing first in all five pitching categories.  But the Mavericks snatched the ERA crown from them at the last minute and the Kings had to settle for 49 pitching points.  That ties them with the 2011 Jackalope for most total pitching points.

Once again drawing comparisons to the 2018 team, the Kings pitching staff was anchored by two long time veteran members of their squad:  Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.  An injury derailed Scherzer from repeating his ’18 Cy Young campaign, but Verlander more than picked up the slack.  He led the league in pitching PAR at 17.3, barely edging out his Astros teammate Gerrit Cole.  Both Verlander and Cole topped Verlander’s previous league record 16.4 mark in 2011 (among seasons I’ve calculated).  Verlander won a league high 21 and also bested all starting pitchers with a 0.80 WHIP.  He reached 300 strikeouts in his final outing of the season, only trailing Cole in that category.  Meanwhile, Scherzer wasn’t able to accumulate similarly impressive numbers in the counting categories, but he did still post a 2.92 ERA with 243 strikeouts in just 172 innings.  Verlander and Scherzer had a little more help this year.  Most notably, Eduardo Rodriguez had an under-the-radar great year.  He won 18 games for the Kings, striking out 204 batters.  Zack Wheeler was a solid addition to the rotation too.

The Kings bullpen was a surprising strength for the club as well.  It should be noted that saves were way down across the league this season.  Active DTBL players accumulated 728 of them, which is the lowest total since the league expanded to 10 teams in 1998.  So it didn’t take as much as usual to win the saves category.  But the Kings did it convincingly, racking up 104 of them.  Will Smith led the way with 34.  Sean Doolittle and Hector Nerris pitched in 29 and 25 respectively.  In the end, this bullpen didn’t feature outstanding peripherals.  But they were very good in the category that matters most for relief pitchers in fantasy baseball.

The Kings made plenty of solid draft picks and free agent signings this year to plug holes in the roster.  But in the end, it was improved performances from a bunch of their keepers who led the way to this championship.  With their eighth DTBL Championship, the Kings have now doubled their closest competition, the Darkhorses and Naturals, for most titles in league history.  Unlike the previous version, this 2019 team will be remembered as one of their better squads.

So now we are will into October and another off-season has begun for our league.  I will prepare for the awards voting and announcements in the near future.  But until then, enjoy the rest of the MLB Postseason!

Posted in Kings | No Comments »

Kings vs. Darkhorses Again?

Monday, September 2nd, 2019

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Entering September of 2018, the Kings held a slim four point lead over the Darkhorses.  They would briefly relinquish that lead, but ultimately managed to win the DTBL Championship.  This year, the Kings once again held a four point lead over the Darkhorses heading into the season’s final month.  It is a pretty similar situation with these two seemingly the best bets to win it all.  The margin over the rest of the league is actually a little larger this year though.  As of today, the Mavericks find themselves almost 20 points behind the Kings with exactly four weeks to go.  That’s not completely insurmountable, but they will definitely need some help from both of the top two teams to make up some of that ground.

The Kings and Darkhorses both appear to be slightly better versions of the 2018 editions of themselves.  The Kings still have the league’s best pitching staff.  But this year, they have held the top spot in all five pitching categories for a good portion of the season.  The offense is not as good, but only two other teams have more batting points.  On the other hand, the Darkhorses once again have the league’s best offense.  But this year, no other team is even close.  They have 48 batting points and appear to be close to a lock to win four of the five batting categories (all but stolen bases).  And their pitching staff is pretty good too.  Like Kings hitters, Darkhorses pitchers rank third in total points.

It is really hard to handicap this race, because unlike last year, these two teams have been neck-and-neck pretty much all season.  Neither has had an extended period of poor play.  Both teams are relatively healthy heading into the final four weeks as well.  The Darkhorses are looking for their fifth league title, but first since 2010, while the Kings are seeking their record extending eighth league crown.  It should be a fascinating race.

Here are the award winners for August of 2019.

Batters of the Week:

Week 20 (8/5 – 8/11) – Ronald Acuna, Jackalope
Week 21 (8/12 – 8/18) – Gleyber Torres, Cougars
Week 22 (8/19 – 8/25) – Anthony Rendon, Jackalope
Week 23 (8/26 – 9/1) – Eugenio Suarez, Cougars

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 20 (8/5 – 8/11) – Mike Minor, Naturals
Week 21 (8/12 – 8/18) – Jack Flaherty, Mavericks
Week 22 (8/19 – 8/25) – Dallas Keuchel, Darkhorses
Week 23 (8/26 – 9/1) – Justin Verlander, Kings

The Batters of the Week in August featured four players having monster seasons.  Ronald Acuna and Gleyber Torres have both already reached 30 home runs in their DTBL rookie campaigns.  Anthony Rendon also surpassed that mark in the past week.  And then there is Eugenio Suarez who hit his 40th (!!!) home run of the season yesterday.  As usual, the pitching award winners are a bunch of veterans still going strong, with youngster Jack Flaherty crashing the party.  Justin Verlander locked up the weekly award by pitching his third career no-hitter yesterday.  Because that happened on September 1 though, it didn’t help his cause for winning another Pitcher of the Month award.

Batter of the Month:

Ronald Acuna, Jackalope
.270 AVG, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 23 R, 6 SB, 3.26 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Mike Clevinger, Naturals
1.96 ERA, 1.064 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 51 K, 3.06 PAR

Last week, to the best of my knowledge, Ronald Acuna became just the second player to reach the 30/30 HR/SB club in his DTBL rookie campaign.  I don’t have a particularly easy way to confirm this, but I did a Baseball Reference Play Index search looking for 30/30 seasons since 1993 in a player’s first two MLB seasons and the only other result was Mike Trout in 2012.  So I feel pretty confident about this assertion.  Acuna currently has 36 home runs and 33 stolen bases with four weeks to go in the season.  He has a great shot at becoming the league’s fourth 40/40 player.  It once looked like a two horse race between Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich for the league MVP award, but Acuna is very much in the thick of that race now, in addition to Rookie of the Year.  As strong as his August was, three other players nearly snatched this award from him:  Demigods outfielder J.D. Martinez and the Nationals dynamic duo of Mavericks outfielder Juan Soto (also a DTBL rookie) and Jackalope third baseman Anthony Rendon.

Finally, we have someone who isn’t a grizzled veteran winning the Pitcher of the Month award.  Mike Clevinger was a late bloomer, but is in just his second DTBL season with the Naturals.  At 28, he is easily the youngest to win this award so far in 2019.  Despite losing about two months due to an injury, he has still managed to compile a nice stat line for the season.  Half of his 10 wins came in August though.  He led the league in August strikeouts with 51.  For what it’s worth, he would not have won this award had Jack Flaherty’s first start of the month been as an active member of the Mavericks rotation.  Despite that start not counting, Flaherty still finished third for the award.  The runner-up was the Cougars’ Sonny Gray who is having a very nice career resurgence this summer.

Posted in Awards, Darkhorses, Jackalope, Kings, Naturals | 1 Comment »

Pitching Vets Continue Dominance

Friday, July 5th, 2019

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The first half of the 2019 season is in the books.  As covered last month, we remain on pace to have the league total home run record smashed and the highest pitching ERA in well over a decade.  MLB saw the record for most home runs hit in a month fall for a second consecutive month in June.  In the DTBL, we just missed the May total with three fewer homers hit by active players (596).

What stands out to me in perusing the DTBL leaderboards is the stark contrast in experience between the league’s top hitters and pitchers.  On the offensive side of things, there are a few veterans mixed in, but for the most part, the most productive batters are all in their 20s.  On the flip side, the league’s best pitchers are all guys who have been dominating hitters for a decade or so.  Currently, the youngest pitcher in the top five of Pitching PAR is 32 year old Hyun-Jin Ryu.  The average age of those five hurlers is about 35 years old.  Joining the Naturals Ryu in that group of impressive veterans are the Kings Max Scherzer (34) and Justin Verlander (36), and Mooshiners Zack Greinke (35) and Charlie Morton (35).

I’m not sure what to make of the continued success of all these veteran pitchers.  Perhaps this is why teams were mostly uninterested in paying huge money on long term deals to hitters this past winter, while the market’s top free agent pitcher, Patrick Corbin, was signed before Christmas.  For a long time, teams were unwilling to sign almost any pitcher to a long term contract.  But now pitchers appear to be the safer bets to continue to be highly productive well into their 30s.  That would seem to bode well for upcoming free agent pitchers like Gerrit Cole and potentially Stephen Strasburg, should he opt-out of his current deal.

Much to come in the upcoming days, including the announcement of the 2019 DTBL All-Star rosters.  So let’s get straight to the June award winners.

Batters of the Week:

Week 11 (6/3 – 6/9) – Edwin Encarnacion, Darkhorses
Week 12 (6/10 – 6/16) – Charlie Blackmon, Cougars
Week 13 (6/17 – 6/23) – D.J. LeMahieu, Choppers
Week 14 (6/24 – 6/30) – Ronald Acuna, Jackalope

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 11 (6/3 – 6/9) – Walker Buehler, Komodos
Week 12 (6/10 – 6/16) – Trevor Bauer, Choppers
Week 13 (6/17 – 6/23) – Tyler Skaggs, Kings
Week 14 (6/24 – 6/30) – Max Scherzer, Kings

Well, I suppose this is as good a place as any to mention the tragic passing of 27 year old Angels and Kings pitcher Tyler Skaggs earlier this week.  Skaggs was an eighth round selection of the Kings in this year’s draft and did a very nice job for the team, shuffling into and out of the lineup since early May.  As you can see above, he had a very strong final week in the lineup for the Kings in late June.  Skaggs also appeared for the Naturals in 2015.  From all accounts, he was a great person in addition to being a quality big league pitcher.  He will be missed.  RIP Tyler Skaggs.

Batter of the Month:

Ronald Acuna, Jackalope
.331 AVG, 9 HR, 21 RBI, 28 R, 6 SB, 3.36 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Max Scherzer, Kings
1.00 ERA, 0.667 WHIP, 6 W, 0 SV, 68 K, 5.34 PAR

Ronald Acuna is continuing to prove the Jackalope correct for selecting him with the first overall pick in this year’s draft, not that anyone was ever questioning that pick anyway.  June was his best month yet though.  He showed off his prowess in all five categories.  He is currently fifth in the league in Batting PAR and joins Christian Yelich as the only two players with 20+ home runs and double digit stolen bases.  This was a very tight race though.  Had Cougars outfielder Charlie Blackmon not missed the first week of the month from the Cougars active roster, he would have finished in a virtual tie with Acuna.  Acuna’s Braves teammate, Demigods first baseman Freddie Freeman had a great June as well.

The race for June Pitcher of the Month was not close.  At this stage of his career, it is hard to rank all of the great Max Scherzer moments.  He has won a pair of DTBL Cy Young awards and three MLB Cy Youngs.  He has pitched two no-hitters and had a 20 strikeout game.  But June of 2019 might be the single best month of his distinguished career.  He even broke his nose in the middle of it, bouncing back to strike out 10 Phillies in seven scoreless innings a day later.  That might have been his most impressive outing of the month, but it wasn’t the best statistically.  In two other starts, he struck out at least 14 batters allowing a single run and one or zero walks.  The complete picture was arguably the best pitching month in DTBL history.  No other DTBL pitcher has ever posted a single month with a 1.00 or lower ERA, 65+ strikeouts and six wins.  His 5.34 June PAR would be a great full season total for most pitchers.  This is the fourth consecutive year that Scherzer has won a Pitcher of the Month award and the third time in that span that he has won it in June.  The awards keep rolling in for the incomparable Scherzer.  Komodos rookie Walker Buehler and Jackalope righty Gerrit Cole finished second and third for this award, but neither had even half of Scherzer’s PAR total.

Posted in Awards, Jackalope, Kings | No Comments »

Someone Old, Someone New

Saturday, May 4th, 2019

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Five weeks into the 2019 season, it is apparent that we will not have a repeat of 2018 in the DTBL where a single team dominated the league nearly from start to finish.  The Jackalope broke out to an early lead in the first couple weeks of the season, but since then, first place has been a revolving door.  The month of April ended with the Jackalope on top, but five other teams were within nine points of the lead.  It has been a rough start to the season for the Demigods and a couple other teams need to pick it up. But for the most part, everybody is well positioned as we move into May.

On a macro level, the early season trends in baseball have been fewer hits (lower batting averages), more strikeouts and a lot more home runs.  The current league batting average of .260 would break last season’s low water mark of .262.  But overall, offense is up, with the league ERA soaring to 3.89, which is higher than any full season league ERA since 2006.  The league WHIP is up as well.  So while pitchers are allowing fewer hits, they are actually surrendering more base runners due to a spike in walks.

As you might expect with some of these extreme statistical increases, several individual players are off to record breaking paces as well.  Komodos outfielder Cody Bellinger and Darkhorses outfielder Christian Yelich each slugged 14 home runs in March/April.  That ties a league record for most home runs in the first month of the season, matching Albert Pujols in 2006 and Alex Rodriguez in 2007.  Bellinger’s 37 RBI are an April record and his 32 runs also ties the record.  Spoiler alert, Bellinger will be mentioned again below.  Jackalope pitcher Gerrit Cole struck out 65 batters in the first month, which also ties a league record set by Curt Schilling in April of 1998.

Again this year, I’m going to write monthly posts like this one, recapping the weekly and monthly award winners.  Here are the batters and pitchers of the week for the first five weeks of the 2019 season.

Batters of the Week:

Week 1 (3/20 – 3/31) – Cody Bellinger, Komodos
Week 2 (4/1 – 4/7) – Anthony Rendon, Jackalope
Week 3 (4/8 – 4/14) – Austin Meadows, Demigods
Week 4 (4/15 – 4/21) – Christian Yelich, Darkhorses
Week 5 (4/22 – 4/28) – Luke Voit, Naturals

Pitchers of the Week:

Week 1 (3/20 – 3/31) – Jose Berrios, Darkhorses
Week 2 (4/1 – 4/7) – Mike Clevinger, Naturals
Week 3 (4/8 – 4/14) – Blake Snell, Cougars
Week 4 (4/15 – 4/21) – James Paxton, Naturals
Week 5 (4/22 – 4/28) – J.A. Happ, Komodos

Unfortunately, April was a rough month from an injury perspective for players who were off to hot starts.  Exactly half of the players listed above wound up hitting the injured list shortly after earning their weekly honor.  Rendon and Meadows would have been in the conversation for Batter of the Month if not for their injuries.  Bellinger and Yelich, on the other hand, have remained healthy and are off to historically fast starts.  But only one of them can win the month’s top honor.  That goes to…

Batter of the Month:

Cody Bellinger, Komodos
.431 AVG, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 32 R, 5 SB, 4.64 PAR

Pitcher of the Month:

Justin Verlander, Kings
2.45 ERA, 0.864 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 53 K, 3.31 PAR

An old guy and a (relative) newcomer.  23 year old Cody Bellinger not only had arguably the best month of April in league history, but on the short list for best months at any point of the season.  He is only the fourth player to ever hit 14+ homers with an average over .400 for an entire month (or a month and 4 days, in this case).  The others were Juan Gonzalez in July of 1996, Albert Belle in July of 1998 and Barry Bonds in September/October of 2001.  But Bellinger had a higher average than all of them, scored the most runs of the foursome and easily stole the most bases.  I don’t have monthly PAR calculations going back that far, but I would guess Bellinger’s was the best in league history.  While his rookie campaign of ’18 was slightly disappointing for the Komodos, it appears they are getting everything they could have hoped for out of him this season.  It was unfortunate for Yelich to not have won this award because his numbers were insane as well.  Moonshiners shortstop Tim Anderson came in third.

Justin Verlander’s late career resurgence has continued into his age 36 season.  Last year’s third place finisher in the Cy Young vote has started this season on top of the Pitching PAR leaderboard.  His 0.86 WHIP led all starting pitchers in March/April.  With 53 strikeouts in 44 innings, he’s also maintaining an impressive strikeout ratio.  He is currently keeping the Kings pitching staff afloat, as no other starting pitcher on the team has a PAR over 1.  Verlander last won this monthly honor last June.  This award could have gone to a bunch of different pitchers.  Verlander barely edged out the Jackalope duo of Tyler Glasnow and Luis Castillo and Choppers righty Trevor Bauer.

Posted in Awards, Kings, Komodos | Comments Off

2019 Season Preview: Part IV

Sunday, March 31st, 2019

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The final part of the 2019 DTBL season preview will cover the three teams projected to be the cream of the crop.  Two of the three were among the worst teams in the league a year ago.  However, a close examination of their rosters indicates that their struggles in 2018 were not due to a lack of talent.  Also, those rosters have been enhanced with some key additions via draft and trade.  The third team is less surprising, as they are the defending champions.  In the projected standings, there is an eight point gap between these teams and all of the ones covered previously, but only three points separate this trio.  In fact, spoiler alert, there is a projected tie for the top spot.  If you would like to skip to the bottom to see the full standings projections, be my guest.  But here are the three teams projected to be the top championship contenders in 2019.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 5th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases - 2nd (10th)
  • Earned Run Average - 2nd (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (3rd)
  • Wins – 9th (4th)
  • Saves - 2nd (4th)
  • Strike Outs - 2nd (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (2nd)
  • Total Points - 3rd (8th)

Summary:

Last year was a huge disappointment for the Naturals.  In this preview series a year ago, they were picked to finish second.  Poor performances and injuries knocked them out of contention early though.  It is safe to say they were not fielding their most capable lineup down the stretch either, causing them to finish in eighth place, their worst finish since 2008.  That allowed them to select Juan Soto with the third pick in the draft, who they immediately traded to the Mavericks for Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi should be one of their best all around players right from the start.  He will provide a boost to an offense that was kind of a disaster a year ago, finishing in last place in all of the counting categories.  Nolan Arenado and Trea Turner are their top returning hitters.  They do not appear to be as deep as the other top offenses in the league, but any improvement over last season will be much welcomed.  Some of that improvement could come from a bunch of their young guys who could be breakout candidates, including Yoan Moncado, Victor Robles and Amed Rosario.  The Naturals don’t need to be the best offense in the league.  But as long as they bounce back to at least the middle of the pack, they should be in good shape.  While the ’18 offense was a train wreck, the pitching staff was not.  They finished third in pitching points and enter this season with the core of the staff remaining intact.  Carlos Carrasco, Noah Syndergaard and James Paxton give them an excellent top of the rotation.  The bullpen is one of the league’s best, headlined by Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias.  But the main man is Josh Hader, who provided impressive value to the Naturals last year despite not being a closer.  With Corey Knebel out for the season, Hader figures to add plenty of saves to his resume as well.  One thing that stuck out to me when reviewing the Naturals 2018 roster is how many of their castoffs were coveted by other teams and drafted relatively early.  You don’t see that much from a team that finished near the bottom of the standings.  It indicates that this team is loaded with talent.  A jump from eighth to third place would be pretty impressive, but the pieces are there for it to be a realistic expectation.

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (8th)
  • Home Runs - 2nd (8th)
  • Runs Batted In - 2nd (9th)
  • Runs Scored - 3rd (9th)
  • Stolen Bases - 3rd (8th)
  • Earned Run Average - 7th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 9th (8th)
  • Wins - 2nd (8th)
  • Saves - 3rd (7th)
  • Strike Outs - 3rd (7th)
  • Total Batting Points - 2nd (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (8th)
  • Total Points - 1st-T (10th)

Summary:

While the five place jump projected for the Naturals is impressive, it pales in comparison to the Jackalope forecast.  The team that finished dead last in 2018 is now projected to tie for a league championship a year later.  If you are scoffing at this possibility, you shouldn’t be.  This league has a history of teams bouncing from the bottom to the top in short order.  Just last year, the Kings won the championship a season removed from finishing ninth.  Also, it has basically been the story of the Jackalope franchise history.  They are almost never mediocre.  They either contend for the championship or finish near the bottom.  After three straight years of the latter, it would seem this season could see them return to the former.  The main reason for the optimistic outlook is the difference-making talent they added in the draft.  The two players in the draft pool with the highest projected PAR for this season were Ronald Acuna and Adalberto Mondesi.  They added both.  Acuna was the first pick in the draft and they traded up to grab Mondesi at the end of the first round.  Only two players are projected for a higher batting PAR than Mondesi (Mike Trout and Mookie Betts), who combines power with elite speed.  Acuna figures to be a five category stud himself.  But it isn’t just the newcomers who have impressive projections.  Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rendon and Gary Sanchez are all among the best players at their positions.  Barring terrible injury luck, this will almost certainly be one of the best hitting teams in the league.  Whether or not they can actually contend for the championship will depend on the pitching staff, which was also not very good last year.  Gerrit Cole is the staff ace and should be one of the best pitchers in the game again this year.  His running mate from a year ago, Luis Severino, is a bit of a wild card this season though as he begins the season on the injured list with a bum shoulder.  It is paramount that they get him back sooner than later.  Otherwise, they will be counting on guys like Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow to have huge breakout years.  Their bullpen should be pretty good, but Wade Davis is the only safe bet to tally big save numbers.  The pitching staff should be better than last year, but there is not much room for error.  One thing is pretty clear though:  2019 is going to be a much better season for the Jackalope.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2018 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 4th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In - 4th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average - 1st (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)
  • Wins – 4th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 4th (3rd)
  • Strike Outs - 1st (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th-T (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points - 1st (1st)
  • Total Points - 1st-T (1st)

Summary:

It is not surprising to see the defending champion picked to win it all again (in a tie, in this case).  However, the 2018 Kings weren’t your typical champions.  They won the league in large part because they had historically good seasons from three players, built what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the first half, but then hung on for dear life as most of the roster struggled badly in the second half of the season.  This was not a deep roster.  But the Kings do believe the roster will be better from top to bottom this season.  The projections point towards similar results as last year:  a mediocre offense and the best pitching staff in the league.  On the pitching front, it was all Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander a year ago.  The rest of the rotation was kind of a disaster and the bullpen wasn’t great either.  Their first place ranking in pitching points was a testament to just how good Scherzer and Verlander were.  They return this year, of course, but are obviously both another year older.  They do have some interesting complementary pieces this time around though.  Zack Wheeler and Andrew Heaney were early round draft picks and both should be able to improve upon the non-Scherzer/Verlander parts of the Kings rotation.  The bullpen features three closers, at least to start the season, in Sean Doolittle, Will Smith and Arodys Vizcaino.  This has a chance to be the league’s best pitching staff again this year.  In order to repeat though, the Kings will probably need a better offense than these projections portend.  Defending league MVP Mookie Betts is the only Kings hitter on the shortlist of the best players in the league.  But there are a handful of under the radar players who could be key contributors this season:  Rhys Hoskins, David Dahl, Adam Eaton and Mike Moustakas (I would have had Matt Olson on this list as well had he not broken his hand last week).  If enough of these guys can provide at least slightly above average production, the Kings offense should be good enough to contend again.  They will likely get a more spirited charge from other teams though, as at least half of the teams in the league could be championship contenders.

Here are the full 2019 projected standings.  The three teams covered above appear to be the top championship contenders, but certainly a whole bunch of other teams could make a charge as well and render these numbers meaningless.  It should be another fun season!

Posted in Jackalope, Kings, Naturals | No Comments »

Acuna, Soto Highlight Round One

Saturday, March 9th, 2019

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The first round of the DTBL Draft almost always features a crop of young up-and-coming stars.  But this year’s group is especially notable for their youth.  Eight of the ten players selected in the first round are under 25 years old, including the first seven picks of the draft.  And two players, Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, are among the most accomplished players at their age to ever enter the league.  Acuna and Soto just turned 21 and 20 respectively over the offseason.  All ten first round selections are DTBL rookies.  A trade of two marquee players also highlighted an excellent start to the 2019 DTBL Draft.

For the second straight year, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year was the first pick of the draft.  Ronald Acuna joins the Jackalope coming off a stellar rookie campaign.  He hit .293 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, flashing all of his plus tools.  The Braves outfielder became a star almost immediately upon promotion and helped lead his team to an unexpected division championship.  He could help the Jackalope make a similar jump in the standings this year.  The Jackalope offense was especially disappointing a year ago, but the pieces are still there to be one of the best teams in the league.  Acuna was a pretty clear choice here.

Last year, the Komodos took a young Dodgers star with the first pick of the draft (Cody Bellinger).  This year, they took another young Dodgers star with the second pick.  Walker Buehler should give a significant boost to a pitching staff that really struggled a year ago.  Buehler was pretty clearly the best pitcher available in this draft.  In 137 big league innings, he struck out 151 while posting an impressive 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  That ERA is a full point lower than any Komodos starting pitcher posted in ’18, when they finished dead last in the league in that category, by a healthy margin.  Buehler will immediately become the Komodos best pitcher.

Juan Soto has already put himself in rarefied air based on his accomplishments in the big leagues as a teenager.  Nobody was expecting Soto to reach the majors for another year or two, but a series of injuries to Nationals outfielders caused them to bring him up last May. He was an immediate success and made it impossible to send him back down.  He was so good in his rookie campaign that the Nationals decided to only make a halfhearted attempt to retain Bryce Harper this winter.  Soto hit .292 with 22 homers in just 414 at bats.  The Naturals selected him with the third pick and he could have joined his Nationals teammate Victor Robles to form an exciting young duo for the Naturals as well.  But Soto was immediately traded to the Mavericks in a blockbuster swap of outfielders.  In return, the Naturals acquired Andrew Benintendi.  These are two of the best outfielders in the game, so this is quite a swap.  Benintendi is more established and is a little more well-rounded, offering a stolen base threat as well.  But Soto has a nearly unlimited upside in the power categories.  It will be very interesting to compare these players as their careers progress.  For the Mavericks, an outfield of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge is pretty darn scary.  But the Naturals have no shortage of young star hitters either.

With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners selected this year’s most interesting player, two-way star Shohei Ohtani.  Coming over from Japan, Ohtani was expected to be an immediate star on the mound, but many questioned if he would really be able to hit big league pitching.  In fact, some thought if he truly wanted to be a two-way player, he may need some time in the minors.  Well, turns out he can hit major league pitching.  He hit .285 with 22 home runs in just 326 at bats.  An injury limited him to just 51 innings on the mound, where he struck out 63 with a 3.31 ERA.  Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in 2019.  He does intend to hit, but probably won’t see action in a big league game until May.  The Moonshiners have all sorts of options with Ohtani.  First, they can use him at 1B or OF this year since he didn’t play a non-pitching field position last year.  And looking forward, they will have the option to use him as either a pitcher or hitter next year, assuming he is a keeper.  The sky is the limit with this pick, but the Moonshiners probably won’t get their money’s worth until next year and beyond.

The Mavericks aren’t used to picking in the first half of the first round, at least not with their own pick.  Last year was the first time they finished in the bottom half of the standings since 2011.  They took advantage of the rare positioning to acquire two of the top five players selected in this draft.  In addition to the trade for Soto, they selected pitcher Jack Flaherty with the fifth pick.  The Mavericks have an absolutely loaded offense, but the once undisputed top pitching staff in the league was anything but that a year ago.  Injuries destroyed the staff and caused them to finish dead last in pitching points.  Flaherty is the first step to try to rebuild that group.  Overshadowed a bit by the players already mentioned above, he had a rather dominant rookie campaign as well.  182 strikeouts in 151 innings is great for any pitcher, much less a 22 year old rookie.  The Cardinals hurler also had a strong 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  He should provide stability for this revamped staff.

The Cougars have had a pretty good recent track record of selecting hitters in the first round.  Second baseman Gleyber Torres is the next in line.  The Cougars will likely open the season with their offensive lineup featuring their past five first round picks.  Torres is younger than all of his predecessors though at the time of joining the squad.  He hit .271 with 24 home runs during his age 21 rookie season.  That combination of ability and age should make him a fixture on the Cougars roster for a very long time.  The Yankees have a lot of options in their infield this year, but one thing is certain.  Torres will be playing virtually every day, whether it be at second base or shortstop.

Speaking of impressive young Yankees infielders, another one was selected with the seventh pick, with the Choppers taking third baseman Miguel Andujar.  Andujar hit .297 with 27 homers and 92 RBI, to finish second in the American League Rookie of the Year vote, behind Ohtani.  The only knock on him is his glove, but that matters not at all in fantasy.  The Choppers will look to Andujar to replace team legend and future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre, who retired over the winter.  If Andujar can provide a spark to the Choppers offense, they could have a chance of ending their 20 year title drought.

For the second straight year, the Demigods took the old guy of the first round.  But in this case, it is still a league rookie.  Jesus Aguilar started the 2018 season as a bench player for the Brewers.  But the first baseman immediately showed off his incredible power, quickly earned a starting job, and then made the NL All-Star team.  He slugged 35 homers with 108 runs batted in.  He did cool off a bit in the second half of the season, with only 11 of those homers coming after the All-Star break.  Outside of maybe Acuna and Soto, he was probably the safest bet for power in this draft.  The Demigods finished eighth in home runs last year, the biggest weakness for an otherwise strong offensive team.

The Darkhorses selected Braves pitcher Mike Foltynewicz with the eighth pick, making this the first time since 2015 that more than two pitchers were taken in the first round.  Foltynewicz had a breakout season a year ago, which earned him an All-Star appearance.  He struck out 202 hitters in 183 innings with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  His previous best ERA season was 4.31, so ’18 saw quite a dramatic improvement.  While he has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, he is still just 27 years old.  The Darkhorses barely missed winning the championship last year, with a mediocre pitching staff holding them back.  Foltynewicz could be exactly what they need to get over the hump.

Sitting with the last pick in the first round, the Kings believed there was one player remaining who was clearly the best available, but he was at a position in which they were already well stacked.  So instead, they swung a trade with the Jackalope to move up a spot to grab that player.  The Kings received the Jackalope 2nd round pick (11th overall) along with a swap of 4th round slots.  The Jackalope then took Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to close out the first round.  Mondesi is a rare breed in that he is an elite base stealer, but also has surprising power.  He managed to steal 32 bases and hit 14 home runs despite not making his big league season debut until late June.  While he’s unlikely to maintain a pace like that for a full season, he still could be an above average contributor to the power categories while potentially leading the league in steals.  Once considered an elite prospect, Mondesi had slipped under the radar a bit before his 2018 breakout.  Slight spoiler alert for my upcoming season preview articles, but you definitely won’t see the Jackalope projected to finish last again.  They managed to acquire the two players with the highest projected PAR in the entire draft pool.  So the Jackalope started and finished the first round with a bang.  Meanwhile, the Kings selected starting pitcher Zack Wheeler with that pick they acquired from the Jackalope, the first pick of the second round.

Thanks to all of you for the excellent pace to the first half of this draft.  At this rate, we’ll be done with plenty of time to spare before the Japan openers.  Let’s keep up the good work!

Posted in Choppers, Cougars, Darkhorses, Demigods, Draft, Jackalope, Kings, Komodos, Mavericks, Moonshiners, Naturals | No Comments »

2018: Year of Mookie

Tuesday, November 20th, 2018

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In 2016, the Kings won the DTBL Championship, a Cougars player (Kris Bryant) won Rookie of the Year, Kings pitcher Max Scherzer won the Cy Young award and Kings outfielder Mookie Betts won the Most Valuable Player award.  This year, the Kings won the DTBL Championship, a Cougars player (Blake Snell) won Rookie of the Year, Kings pitcher Max Scherzer won the Cy Young award, and… yes, you have figured out where this is going.  History has repeated itself.  Perhaps no offensive player in league history has been more solely responsible for his team winning a championship than Betts was this season.  Mookie Betts is the 2018 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

For the first time in his young, but highly productive career, Mookie Betts joined the 30/30 club this season.  He notched career highs in both home runs (32) and stolen bases (30).  Those numbers alone put him in pretty elite company, but his league leading .346 average took things to another level.  Only one player in league history has had a higher average while joining the 30/30 club.  Larry Walker’s insane 1997 season featured a .366/49/33 line.  Oh, Betts also led the league in runs scored with 129.  Somewhat surprisingly, he was not on top of the Batting PAR leaderboard.  His 11.3 was awfully impressive, but was topped by Christian Yelich’s 11.6.  As an entire team, the championship winning Kings accumulated 22.2 Batting PAR.  So yes, Betts was responsible for more than half of that!  No other Kings hitter reached 5 PAR. Not a bad year for him: AL MVP, World Series champion, DTBL MVP and DTBL champion.

The Kings drafted Betts with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft.  Two of the players taken ahead of him:  Corey Dickerson and Jorge Soler (sorry, Mike).  So far, Betts has won the MVP in half of his DTBL seasons, taking home the honor in 2016 as well.  His numbers from this season were slightly better in most categories, except RBIs, the only category where he didn’t set a career high.  In addition to joining the 30/30 single season club, he also reached the 100/100 HR/SB club for his career this season, now sitting at 105/100 with an average of .303.  He is the only player in the league with 100 homers and stolen bases since 2015.  And only Mike Trout can top Betts’ career PAR of 34.7 since ’15.  There is no question that Betts has established himself as one of the best all around players in the game.

Despite the gaudy numbers, this award did not come easily for Betts.  As mentioned, he didn’t lead the league in PAR, so it is unsurprising that he wasn’t the clear choice for this award either.  But he did receive a majority of the first place votes:  seven to be exact.  Interestingly, one person did not have him on the ballot.  He compiled 82 points, besting the runner-up by nine.  Finishing second was the PAR leader, Darkhorses outfielder Christian Yelich.  Yelich was insanely hot over the last two months of the season, easily claiming the NL MVP award.  Like Betts, he was a strong five category player, beating Betts in home runs and RBIs, but falling a bit behind in average, runs and steals.  Yelich was the only player who appeared on all ten ballots.  But he received just one first place vote, along with nine seconds, leaving him a bit short of Betts.  While those two were the clear leaders, several others received strong consideration as well.  Betts’ Red Sox teammate and Demigods outfielder J.D. Martinez hit .330 with 46 home runs.  Martinez got a first place vote and earned 42 points to finish third.  Right behind him was Komodos third baseman Jose Ramirez, who proved his breakout ’17 season was no fluke.  Ramirez actually looked like the favorite to win this award before struggling a bit down the stretch.  He also received a first place vote and compiled 40 points.  His Indians teammate rounded out the top five.  Demigods shortstop Francisco Lindor had a pretty great five category performance as well, but was overshadowed a bit by the guys mentioned above.  Lindor made a majority of the ballots (six) and totaled 14 points.  Any of these five guys could have won this award with their numbers in a different season. Although he failed to make the top five for the second straight season, I think it is worth pointing out that Mavericks outfielder Mike Trout has now received MVP votes all seven years of his DTBL career.  Even his worst seasons are elite.

Click here to view the full voting results.

And that’s a wrap on the baseball award season.  Now it is time to start jumping into my offseason work.  There will be plenty of enhancements, but I’ve learned not to make any promises on what I will actually accomplished.  So stay tuned.  Happy Thanksgiving!

Posted in Awards, Kings | 1 Comment »

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