Archive for March, 2016

2016 Season Preview: Part I

Wednesday, March 30th, 2016


Welcome to the 2016 DTBL season!  Before things get started for real on Sunday, I’m going to kick off my annual season preview articles.  Last year, the Jackalope turned the season into a bit of a snoozer as they basically dominated the league from start to finish.  Surely, that won’t happen again this year, will it?  Which other teams can pose a serious threat to their title defense?  As has been the custom in recent years, I have compiled projected stats for all players currently on DTBL rosters and have used those to create a projection of the league standings.

Once again, I am using ZiPS as my source for 2016 stat projections for every statistical category except for saves, which I obtained from Steamer.  Please check out this post from three years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections.  I am using the stats for all 28 players who were on each team’s roster at the completion of the draft, even if they are not expected to contribute much this season.  However, the team totals are adjusted to assume a 14 hitter and 9 pitcher roster.  Again, check the link above to see exactly how I’m doing this.

Before I get started, a quick look back at last year’s projections.  First, the Jackalope dominance was definitely not expected as they were slotted to finish sixth.  But some of the other forecasts were pretty solid, including the projection of an extremely bunched middle of the pack and disappointing seasons for the Kings, Gators and Moonshiners.  No doubt, this year’s projections won’t hit all the marks either, but I still think this provides some value in identifying pre-season strengths and weaknesses of each team.

I will break this into four sections.  In the past, I’ve gone with three teams in the first two parts and two in the final two.  But I’m switching it up a bit this year.  Not to spoil the full standings, but there is a pretty clear delineation at both the top and bottom of the standings with a pair of teams sticking out on each end and the middle six picked to finish in an extremely tight group.  So I’m going to go 2-3-3-2 this year.  With that, here are the teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings in 2016.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (4th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (4th)
  • Wins – 7th (5th)
  • Saves – 6th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (6th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (6th)
  • Total Points – 10th (7th)

Summary:

At this time last year, the Moonshiners had just swung a couple huge trades to give their pitching staff a much needed boost.  Adding Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez certainly did improve their staff, but not nearly enough to make them a contender.  Meanwhile, their offense wasn’t great either as they limped to a seventh place finish.  Unfortunately, these projections show them taking a huge step in the wrong direction this year, especially on the hitting side.  They are not projected to finish higher than fifth in any category and are slotted dead last in three categories.  The problem, at least on offense, appears to be a lack of players who are expected to post monster numbers.  There are some reasons for optimism though.  Their first two draft picks, Miguel Sano and Michael Conforto, have enormous upside and could easily become their best two offensive players immediately.  On the pitching side, it is hard to imagine a staff led by Greinke, Hernandez and Dallas Keuchel not being at least average.  Also, while the bullpen doesn’t have any huge names, they do currently have four guys slated to be closers.  The  Moonshiners will need to vastly exceed these projections to have a good season, but last place seems a little overly pessimistic for a franchise that has NEVER finished worse than seventh.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2015 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 4th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (9th)
  • Wins – 9th (8th)
  • Saves – 7th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th-T)
  • Total Points – 9th (8th)

Summary:

So the order is switched, but the bottom two of these projections are the same as a year ago.  Despite finishing in eighth place in 2015, the Gators made significant strides, particularly with their bats.  This year, the goal would seem to be to improve the pitching staff.  Steven Matz joins a rotation that badly needs an ace.  These projections don’t show them making the necessary jump on the mound to move up the standings.  But this is familiar territory for the Gators, being projected near the bottom.  Their actual results last year were much better than even their place of finish would indicate.  And there are some positive signs in these projections too, including a big improvement in power.  If Yoenis Cespedes’ second half can carry into the new year, things will really be looking up.  Corey Seager hopes to anchor an improved infield.  Overall, there is a lot to like about the Gators roster.  Unfortunately, the pitching staff has too many question marks for them to project as a contender this year.  At the very least, the Gators aim to finish above the bottom three for the first time since 2010.

Elite Rookie Class Arrives

Thursday, March 24th, 2016


One of the prevailing storylines of the 2015 baseball season was the infusion of highly touted prospects making their MLB debuts and immediately contributing for their big league clubs.  So it was clear last summer that the 2016 DTBL draft class would be one of the most highly regarded groups we’ve ever seen.  Not surprisingly, those superstars-in-the-making dominated the early part of the 24th Annual DTBL Draft.

Of the first 14 players selected in the draft, 11 made their MLB debuts during the 2015 season.  One other was classified as a rookie and another has just one full season under his belt.  The one “veteran” of that group is Carlos Martinez, who happens to be just 24 years old .  Martinez was the only first round selection who did not make his MLB debut last season.

The draft kicked off with a pair of players who arrived in the big leagues with so much hype that it seemed impossible for them to immediately live up to it.  But that they did, on their way to AL and NL Rookie of the Year honors.  With the first pick, the Kings selected shortstop Carlos Correa, making him the third player to have been selected with the first pick of both the DTBL and MLB Drafts (joining Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper).  Correa demonstrated all of his five tools for the Astros last season.  He hit .279 with 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases in four months of action.  He will be asked to anchor a position which suddenly became a weakness for the Kings after a disappointing season from Ian Desmond and off the field troubles for Jose Reyes.  The second pick was no slouch either.  The Cougars selected third baseman Kris Bryant who led all MLB rookies with 26 home runs and 99 runs batted in.  He will give an immediate boost to a Cougars offense which was dead last in the league in batting points last year.

Correa and Bryant were the presumptive top two picks all along.  But they were hardly the only youngsters with huge upside in this draft.  The Gators took shortstop Corey Seager with the third pick.  Seager, the younger brother of Moonshiners third baseman Kyle, hit a robust .337 with four homers in just 27 games after a September call-up.  He figures to be another key piece to a Gators offense which made great strides a year ago.  The Moonshiners kept the run of potential superstar sluggers going by selecting third baseman Miguel Sano with pick four.  Sano probably has the most raw power of any player in the draft not named Bryant.  He hit 18 home runs in just 279 big league at bats.  His eventual position is still TBD, but his power will play anywhere on the field.

For the second straight year, no pitchers were selected in the top four picks.  Last year, the Jackalope grabbed the first pitcher, Jake Arrieta, in the sixth slot.  This year, the Naturals hope for a similar payout from the first picher off the board.  They selected Noah Syndergaard at number five.  Syndergaard was a key figure in the Mets pennant winning season.  He struck out 166 in 150 innings along with nine wins, a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  This is the second straight year the Naturals have gone with a pitcher in the first round (Carlos Carrasco).  The Choppers followed by selecting outfielder Kyle Schwarber, another slugger with tons of raw power.  Schwarber slugged 16 homers in just 232 at bats.  If he is able to qualify as a catcher down the road, this could be an absolute steal for the Choppers.  He will begin his DTBL career in the outfield though.

With the eighth pick, the Darkhorses took the only non-rookie of the round.  Pitcher Carlos Martinez still has immense upside though at the tender age of 24.  The former Maverick struck out over a batter per inning and won ten games in his first full season as a member of the starting rotation.  The Darkhorses were really just a pitcher or two away from being a contender last season, so Martinez should play a big role if they are to close that gap.  Next, the Mavericks picked the third Cubs rookie of the first round, second baseman Addison Russell.  Russell will move over to shortstop a year from now, but provides huge upside at either middle infield position.  Finally, the Jackalope finished the first round by selecting third baseman Maikel Franco.  I’m going to go on the record and call Franco the steal of the first round.  It is not normal for a defending champion to have the opportunity to draft a player of Franco’s caliber with the tenth pick.  He is having a huge spring, which could mean that the 14 home runs and 50 RBI he put up in his partial season in 2015 was just the start of him tapping into his potential.  I was badly hoping Franco would slip to me with the next pick.

We have not seen the same flurry of in-draft trades as last year, but the Mavericks did complete a pair of deals early on.  First, they were finally able to unload Cody Allen after putting him on the block last summer.  The Cougars acquired Allen in exchange for their second round pick (12th overall).  It is a very interesting trade in that a second round pick seems like quite a haul for a guy who didn’t even have a certain roster spot on his old team.  But if you look at just how weak relief pitching was in this draft class, it absolutely makes sense for the Cougars.  If Allen had been part of this draft, he almost certainly would have been the first reliever selected.  And since there was such a large gap between him and the best available closer, a second round pick sounds about right.  But for the Mavericks, this is obviously a win.  They had little use for Allen with their bullpen full of some of the best relievers in baseball (mostly Yankees).  They used the acquired pick to add another young phenom, outfielder Byron Buxton.

The second trade involved some huge names who have recently changed MLB teams as well.  The Mavericks shipped outfielder Jayson Heyward to the Naturals for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  At times, Tulo has been one of the most valuable players in baseball.  But his stock has fallen a bit recently due to a long string of injuries and his depature from Colorado.  Toronto is a pretty good place to hit too though, and he is part of the best lineup in baseball.  So he still has huge upside.  As for Heyward, the Cubs made him the biggest offensive free agent acquisition of the winter.  The Naturals expect him to play a key role in their revamped offense.  Both Heyward and Tulowitzki had spent their entire DTBL careers with their previous team.  Heyward was a first round selection of the Mavericks in 2011.  Tulowitzki spent eight great years with the Naturals after they selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft.

We have reached the two week mark of the draft and have completed eight rounds.  That is a slower pace than recent years, but recent improvement seems to have us on track to complete the draft with plenty of time to spare.  Good luck with the remainder of the draft.  Just 10 days until Opening Day!