Archive for April, 2015

2015 Season Preview: Part IV

Wednesday, April 8th, 2015


Last year, the 2014 season previews predicted two teams would stand out above the rest.  That’s exactly what happened, but not the two that had been projected to do so (Kings and Mavericks).  It was the Naturals and Demigods who blew away the rest of the league en route to record setting finishes, with the Naturals squeaking out the title by 2 1/2 points.  This year figures to be much different with a lot more teams projected to be in the championship mix.  In part, that is because no one team looks overwhelmingly strong on paper.  Even the two teams who will be covered in this final part of the 2015 season preview have a few noticeable weaknesses.  But what makes these teams appear to be the top title contenders is that even those weaknesses still put them above average in both hitting and pitching, the only two teams that can say that.  These were two of the top three finishers a year ago, so it is not surprising to see them among the favorites again in 2015.  Here are the projected top two title contenders.

Dom’s Demigods

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 2nd (2nd)
  • Home Runs – 5th (4th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 2nd (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 3rd (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th-T (3rd)
  • Earned Run Average – 6th (1st)
  • WHIP Ratio – 6th (2nd)
  • Wins – 3rd (1st)
  • Saves – 6th (5th)
  • Strike Outs – 4th (1st)
  • Total Batting Points – 3rd (2nd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 4th (1st)
  • Total Points – 2nd (2nd)

Summary:

The Demigods were a surprise title contender a year ago, just barely missing out on their first league championship.  But this year, they won’t catch anyone by surprise.  This is the most complete team in the league.  The only thing keeping them from being the overall favorite is that their strength from a year ago, their rotation, does not appear to be nearly as strong this year.  Losing Yu Darvish to a torn UCL in spring training was a terrible blow to what was the best pitching staff in the league a year ago.  Also, Jose Fernandez doesn’t figure to return to action until mid-season either.  That still leaves them with an impressive trio of Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels.  But they are going to need some great performances from other hurlers to keep up with the team below.  The bullpen is only average, but shouldn’t kill them.  The good news is the offense looks very strong again this year.  All of the pieces seem to fit and they do not have an obvious weakness among their everyday players.  Jose Altuve and Carlos Gomez were two of the best players in the league last year.  If Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria can bounce back from disappointing ’14 campaigns, they could challenge for the best offense in the league.  It is the overall strength of both the hitting and pitching that makes the Demigods one of the clear favorites this year.  They came oh so close to their first championship last year.  Perhaps this will be the year instead.

Marc’s Mavericks

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (4th)
  • Home Runs – 1st (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 4th (3rd)
  • Runs Scored – 8th (4th)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (8th)
  • Earned Run Average – 1st (4th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 1st (4th)
  • Wins – 5th (4th)
  • Saves – 1st (6th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 1st (2nd)
  • Total Batting Points – 5th (3rd)
  • Total Pitching Points – 1st (3rd)
  • Total Points – 1st (3rd)

Summary:

It is hard to know what to make of the Mavericks’ 2014 season.  On one hand, they were projected to finish near the top of the league after just barely missing out on a title in ’13 with a historically great pitching staff.  But on the other, it seemed they weren’t likely to duplicate that kind of season without their phenom pitcher Matt Harvey.  So their third place finish was pretty good, but it was the first time they weren’t in the title hunt until the final days of the season since 2011.  Now Harvey is back and they appear to once again have one of the strongest pitching staffs this league has ever seen.  Harvey, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg on the same team seems unfair.  These projections have them winning the league in four of the five pitching categories, and nobody else is close in any of the four.  In addition to the ridiculously loaded rotation, they have the scariest collection of bullpen arms in the league too.  They traded for Aroldis Chapman and drafted Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller to join Cody Allen and Kenley Jansen.  Those guys all strike out hitters at such high rates that their strikeout totals look like those of starting pitchers.  If they stay even semi healthy, it would be hard to envision any other team coming close to them in strikeouts.  ERA and WHIP are less predictable, but they are heavy favorites there too.  Now for the bad news.  Their offense doesn’t appear to be elite.  Mike Trout is though, and he is on their roster.  So if he can get some help from the supporting cast, they ought to be good enough in the hitting categories to compliment their insane pitching staff on their way to the top of the standings.  Hard to believe it has been nine years since their last title, but there have been a bunch of close calls since then.  This looks like it could be the year the Mavericks win their third league title.

Here are the full projected standings and team stat totals.  As I have hinted at throughout these previews, these projections show a very tight race from top to bottom.  Only the Demigods are projected for 30+ points in both batting and pitching, while every team but the Gators has 25+ points in one or the other.  So the Mavericks and Demigods appear to be a little bit better than the next six teams.  But it wouldn’t take much for almost any team to get into the mix.  As we saw last year, these projections are not to be trusted.  It should be a great season.

Posted in Demigods, Mavericks | No Comments »

2015 Season Preview: Part III

Monday, April 6th, 2015


Happy Opening Day!  The season kicked off last night in Chicago, but things get started for real across the country today.  This is the third of my four part preview of the 2015 DTBL season.  I hope to finish up the last part on Tuesday evening.  This third part takes a look at a pair of teams that have quietly been building very strong teams and should definitely be championship contenders this year.  But much like the teams covered in part two, these squads have an obvious strength and an apparent weakness which is keeping them a little bit behind the projected top two teams.  They will probably need to improve upon these projected numbers in those areas of weakness to win the league.  But they are close enough where that is a very realistic possibility.  Here are the teams predicted to finish in fourth and third place this season.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 7th (6th)
  • Home Runs – 7th (3rd)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (4th)
  • Runs Scored – 7th (2nd)
  • Stolen Bases – 9th (7th)
  • Earned Run Average – 2nd (6th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 2nd (6th)
  • Wins – 4th (2nd)
  • Saves – 3rd (8th)
  • Strike Outs – 2nd (5th)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th (4th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 2nd (5th)
  • Total Points – 4th (4th)

Summary:

Two years ago, the Choppers surprised a lot of people by finishing in third place.  Last year, they proved they belonged among the top teams in the league, despite falling to a fourth place finish.  This year’s projection shows more of the same, but also indicates this is a much different team than the one that finished fourth a year ago.  For one thing, it is strange to see a team that is projected to finish in the bottom four of all five offensive categories to still finish in the top half of the standings.  But the Choppers pitching staff appears to be one of the league’s best.  This was clearly the plan as they took pitchers with their first four picks in the draft.  Tyson Ross and Masahiro Tanaka are great additions to a staff that already included Chris Sale, Jon Lester and Alex Cobb.  There are some serious health concerns in this group, but if healthy, they will be one of the league’s best rotations.  The bullpen took a big hit yesterday when the Braves dealt Craig Kimbrel to the Padres, costing Joaquin Benoit his closer gig.  So don’t expect them to finish third in saves.  On offense, the numbers aren’t pretty, but this is still a very talented, veteran group.  Look for Anthony Rizzo to be the team’s MVP.  Jose Bautista should have another great year too.  Really, not a lot has changed from the team that finished fourth in offensive points a year ago.  They just don’t have the shiny new additions that some other teams do.  There are plenty of reasons for optimism in the Choppers camp this year.

David’s Darkhorses

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 6th (7th)
  • Home Runs – 3rd (6th)
  • Runs Batted In – 3rd (6th)
  • Runs Scored – 2nd (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 3rd (4th)
  • Earned Run Average – 5th (8th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 9th (9th)
  • Wins – 6th (6th-T)
  • Saves – 7th (10th)
  • Strike Outs – 6th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 4th (7th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 7th (10th)
  • Total Points – 3rd (8th)

Summary:

Probably the biggest surprise of these projections in the positive direction is the Darkhorses coming in third.  But these numbers are pretty good indicators of just how close all of these teams appear to be.  The Darkhorses somehow place third despite being fourth and seventh in projected batting and pitching points, respectively.  But all of those rankings would be significant improvements for the team that finished in eighth place a year ago and hasn’t finished in the top half of the league since winning the championship in 2010.  The Darkhorses look especially strong on offense.  The additions of Edwin Encarnacion (trade) and George Springer (3rd overall pick of the draft) gives them a pair of sluggers that they lacked in 2014.  Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich and Xander Bogaerts are three young returning players who could be primed for huge seasons too.  The pitching staff is still the weakness, but should definitely be better than last year’s squad which finished with the fewest pitching points in the league.  Jacob deGrom is the key newcomer.  Julio Teheran, James Shields and Lance Lynn are the best holdovers.  Not the most impressive staff on paper, of course, but this group should be good enough to put them into contention with their impressive offense.  Sorry about the terrible pun, but if you are looking for a darkhorse pick to win the 2015 DTBL championship, this is definitely your team.

Posted in Choppers, Darkhorses | No Comments »

2015 Season Preview: Part II

Friday, April 3rd, 2015


In the second part of our 2015 DTBL season preview, we’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish in fifth through seventh place in the standings.  But as I hinted at in the first part, this year’s projected standings show very little gap between teams, making the actual predicted place of finish of little consequence.  In particular, very little seems to separate these teams in the middle of the pack.  I’m not going to post the full projected standings until I finish all of the previews, but here’s a little bit of an idea of what it looks like:  only six points separate the third through seventh place teams.  So these teams just need to exceed the projections by a point or two here or there to move right into the championship hunt.  The three teams we’ll examine today all appear to be very strong in one half of the game (batting/pitching) but not so much in the other.  For one of these teams, this predicted landing spot would be a nice improvement over last year, while for another it would be a colossal disappointment.  We actually have a projected tie for sixth and seventh place, so let’s take a look at those teams now.

Jay’s Jackalope

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 3rd (5th)
  • Home Runs – 2nd (4th-T)
  • Runs Batted In – 1st (5th)
  • Runs Scored – 1st (5th)
  • Stolen Bases – 6th (9th)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (2nd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (3rd)
  • Wins – 7th (6th-T)
  • Saves – 10th (9th)
  • Strike Outs – 9th (4th)
  • Total Batting Points – 1st (6th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (4th)
  • Total Points – 6th-T (5th)

Summary:

No team has transformed itself more since the end of last season than the Jackalope.  And boy is that change evident in these projections.  For years, the Jackalope have fielded one of the best pitching staffs in the league.  On offense, they have been up and down, which has been reflected in their place in the standings each year.  But they have made a philosophical adjustment to build their team around more predictable and durable hitters instead of pitchers with limited shelf lives.  Gone are their best starting and relief pitchers, Felix Hernandez and Aroldis Chapman.  In are Anthony Rendon, Adam Jones and a crew of younger pitchers.  Amazingly, the Jackalope are projected to improve in all five offensive categories and take a step backwards in all five pitching categories.  The end result is a predicted finish of sixth, down a spot from last year.  But I think the Jackalope are okay with this.  They’ll take their chances with Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole possibly becoming the next great Jackalope pitchers.  Short term, they have some injury concerns that could make things difficult early in the season.  Another young pitcher, Zack Wheeler, is already out for the season following Tommy John surgery, which happened not long after they drafted him.  Rendon’s knee injury shortly after they traded for him is also a cause for concern.  But if they can keep most of the rest of the roster healthy, they could have the best offense in the league and will be an exciting team to watch.

Nick’s Naturals

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 1st (1st)
  • Home Runs – 4th (2nd)
  • Runs Batted In – 5th (2nd)
  • Runs Scored – 4th (1st)
  • Stolen Bases – 2nd (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (1st)
  • Wins – 9th (5th)
  • Saves – 4th (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 7th (3rd)
  • Total Batting Points – 2nd (1st)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (2nd)
  • Total Points – 6th-T (1st)

Summary:

Woah!  I have a lot to say here.  First, it is very interesting that the Jackalope and Naturals are projected to tie in the standings because they are built very similarly.  Both look great on offense with questionable pitching.  But hold on a second… the Naturals are the defending champions!  How are they projected to fall all the way to a sixth place tie?  It’s starting to look like my methodology has an inherent bias against the Naturals.  Prior to winning the league last year, they were picked to finish tied for fifth.  So obviously, this prediction isn’t a death knell for them.  They have made some pretty significant changes for a defending champion though.  Zack Greinke and Anthony Rendon are gone.  They have also been hurt by position switches with Victor Martinez no longer being able to put up MVP caliber numbers from a catching slot and Rendon switching from 2B to 3B prior to being traded.  But make no mistake, this is still a championship caliber team.  Yasiel Puig is the most exciting addition.  But they also drafted a ton of young players with bright futures.  These projections really don’t care for their starting rotation, but you have to figure Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Richards and Drew Hutchison all have great chances to exceed these numbers.  Another wild card is Aaron Sanchez, who will give the Naturals a sixth starting pitcher from a RP slot.  So you should immediately expect them to beat these win and strikeout predictions.  If Sanchez doesn’t kill the ERA/WHIP, it is hard to imagine them finishing last in both of those categories too.  On offense, a team with Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki is nearly a lock to be one of the best squads in the league.  I am betting WAY over a 6th place tie for the Naturals.  A repeat championship is more likely than them finishing here.

Kelly’s Cougars

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (10th)
  • Home Runs – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (10th)
  • Stolen Bases – 8th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 3rd (5th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 3rd (5th)
  • Wins – 1st (3rd)
  • Saves – 5th (6th-T)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (8th)
  • Total Batting Points – 8th (10th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 3rd (6th)
  • Total Points – 5th (10th)

Summary:

The last team in this section is basically the polar opposite of the two above.  The Cougars have very good pitching with suspect bats.  In fact, the offense was so bad last year that they finished dead last in all five hitting categories, which torpedoed their season.  I feel like I say this every year, but the Cougars probably have the most underrated pitching staff in the league.  That appears to be the case again this year.  So with an improved offense, it would not be unreasonable to predict them to jump from last place to the top half of the league.  The main reason for optimism with the offense is the addition of Jose Abreu with the first pick in the draft.  Immediately, he becomes their best offensive player and could single-handedly make sure they don’t finish last in all of the offensive categories again, if he is able to come close to repeating his impressive rookie season.  Their first four picks were all hitters, so Abreu won’t be asked to burden all of the load.  The pitching staff is still the strength though.  Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner lead the charge, but Gio Gonzalez, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Chris Archer are pretty good too.  And newcomers Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers provide impressive rotation depth.  The bullpen is solid too with closers David Robertson, Drew Storen and Jake McGee who add a lot in other categories in addition to saves.  A fifth place finish would be a nice improvement for the Cougars and seems very possible.

Posted in Cougars, Jackalope, Naturals | No Comments »

2015 Season Preview: Part I

Wednesday, April 1st, 2015


The 2015 baseball season is almost upon us, so it is time to take a look inside the crystal ball to see how this season will turn out.  Actually, there may be no need for that.  Back to the Future II already has this covered.  As foretold in that movie, the Cubs will end their 107 year championship drought by winning the 2015 World Series.  Of course, the movie depicted Miami as the World Series losers, so one can only assume the Marlins will get shipped to the AL at some point this season as Commissioner Manfred’s first highly controversial decision in office.  But since the movie didn’t touch on results from random fantasy leagues, I will once again preview the upcoming DTBL season using a set of stat projections.

Check out my post from two years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections.  Nothing has changed here.  Once again, I’m using ZiPS projections for all stat categories except saves (Steamer).  Stat projections for all 28 players currently on each team’s roster are used, except for a couple of cases where a player has already been ruled out for the season with an injury.  While all players are included, the team totals are scaled to match the regular roster size of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.  So even your late round draft picks who you may hope to leave on the bench all season do play a role in these projections.

Two years ago, the projections wound up providing a very accurate picture of how the season would play out, with most teams closely meeting their predicted place of finish.  Last year, not so much.  The Kings were projected to repeat as champions, but instead needed a late season rally to avoid finishing dead last.  Meanwhile, the team that actually won the league, the Naturals, were projected to finish tied for fifth.  So take all of this with several huge grains of salt.  It should provide an interesting look at the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team though.  Without further ado, here are the three teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings this year.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (7th)
  • Wins – 10th (9th)
  • Saves – 2nd (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (8th)
  • Total Points – 10th (9th)

Summary:

Well, somebody has to be last.  One thing I should point out is that the stat projections have all of these teams at the bottom finishing with far more points than they accumulated last year, with a much smaller gap between the top and bottom teams.  So the Gators aren’t really as far from being a contender as these projections might lead you to believe.  They do have a similarly constructed squad to last year though.  They are a team of speedsters with a strong bullpen.  They lack power and do not have an obvious ace in their starting rotation.  Michael Wacha and Alex Wood are a pair of guys who could assume that role this year though.  Perhaps the player they will count on above all others to exceed this projection is last year’s first round pick, Wil Myers.  Myers had a disappointing DTBL rookie campaign and will look to legitimize his spot on the roster this year.  This is a very young team so there are plenty of breakout candidates.  Clearly, they are going to need several guys to do so, particularly in the power categories, to become a contender.  While the bullpen is a strength, that saves projection may be a little generous since Steamer has free agent Rafael Soriano pegged at 21 saves.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (10th)
  • Wins – 8th (6th-T)
  • Saves – 8th (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (7th)
  • Total Points – 9th (7th)

Summary:

The Moonshiners are one of several teams that attempted to reshape their roster through big March trades.  For years, they have been a little short of a championship contender, largely because they lacked ace pitchers who could carry the staff to the top of the standings in most pitching categories.  But now they have Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, two of the best pitchers in baseball.  Not surprisingly, their pitching projections are much stronger this year as a result.  However, the overall prediction is not great because the offense appears to have taken a step backwards, and the offense wasn’t great as it was.  Gone is Josh Donaldson, who was one of their few bright spots a year ago.  But a healthy Prince Fielder could be just what the doctor ordered.  Rookie Jorge Soler will be asked to provide an immediate power boost as well.  On the pitching side, the projections are so-so for a much improved staff.  But if the offense is at least a little better than predicted, Hernandez and Greinke could help lead the Moonshiners back into contention.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 6th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th-T (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (8th)
  • Wins – 2nd (10th)
  • Saves – 9th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (9th)
  • Total Points – 8th (6th)

Summary:

The last three years, the projections have loved the Kings.  But then last season happened and the entire narrative of this franchise changed.  No longer are they a powerhouse with a bunch of the best players in the league.  Now they are a squad with aging stars and very little to hang their hats on.  To be fair, part of the reason why they do not project well this year is because so many of their players are coming off injury plagued seasons.  As a result, those players are projected to play less than full seasons again this year.  And that causes the full team projection to come in with far fewer total at bats than any other team.  Presumably, even if those players don’t stay healthy, they will be replaced by guys who are.  So the Kings offensive counting stat projections may be a little low.  Nonetheless, they do not look like a contender this year.  But they do have a couple very interesting young players who could be part of future Kings’ contending squads.  Their first two draft picks, outfielders Mookie Betts and Gregory Polanco, have a ton of upside.  The pitching staff is a major question mark with Max Scherzer being the only dependable pitcher on the squad.  This could be a bit of a transition year for the Kings, but it is hard to imagine them suffering through injuries to the extent they did in ’14. 8th place would be a pretty disappointing finish for them.

Posted in Gators, Kings, Moonshiners | No Comments »