Archive for the ‘Gators’ Category

Memorial Day Awards Outlook

Monday, May 25th, 2015


Welcome to a slightly amended version of the 2015 DTBL Awards Outlook.  So as to differentiate the numbers and players I’m examining with what Kevin is doing, there will be three Awards Outlook articles this season.  This is the first; the second will follow at the All Star break, with the third at Labor Day.  These seem like reasonable benchmarks for the baseball season, landing on big holidays and milestones rather than doing it monthly.  Plus, this will allow Kevin to focus more on monthly aspects with his postings.

That being said, these articles will focus on three things.  First, in a new addition, I’ll be listing the individual category leaders in all the hitting and pitching categories.  In this way, we can better track who’s been on point for an entire season, or if they’re more of a flash in the pan.  Second, I’ll be visiting the awards categories in the same fashion as last year, but instead of a top 5 ballot style listing, this year will focus only on the top two for each category.  Honorable mentions will go to players who are on the cusp, but can only knock on the door of being truly elite.  PAR and ESPN’s player rater will be relied upon as main benchmarks to set the awards leaders.

Here are the DTBL category leaders through Memorial Day, 2015.

  • Batting Average: Dee Gordon, Gators – .376
  • Home Runs: Nelson Cruz, Gators – 17
  • Runs Batted In: Bryce Harper, Darkhorses – 41
  • Runs Scored: Bryce Harper, Darkhorses – 39
  • Stolen Bases: Dee Gordon, Gators – 17
  • Earned Run Average: Zack Greinke, Moonshiners – 1.48
  • WHIP Ratio: Zack Greinke, Moonshiners – .869
  • Wins: Felix Hernandez, Moonshiners – 7
  • Saves: Glen Perkins, Naturals – 16
  • Strikeouts: Corey Klueber, Demigods – 83

Rookie of the Year:

  • Dallas Keuchel, Starting Pitcher, Moonshiners – .947 WHIP, 1.78 ERA, 5 W, 0 Sv, 39 Ks, 3.2 PAR
  • Jacob DeGrom, Starting Pitcher, Darkhorses – 1.114 WHIP, 2.75 ERA, 5 W, 0 Sv, 54Ks, 2.7 PAR

Unlike last year, this year’s rookie crop doesn’t seem to be quite as strong overall.  Rookie pitchers definitely have an edge in this category over hitters, however, as exemplified by Dallas Keuchel and Jacob DeGrom.  DeGrom was a high draft pick, taken by the Darkhorses in the second round.  His stellar numbers were to be expected, and he is certainly not disappointing.  He adds another fine young arm to Darkhorses growing stable of them.  Keuchel, on the other hand, went undrafted.  He was the subject of a fierce free agent bidding battle after the first week of the season, and he has not disappointed the Moonshiners since, spinning a 9th overall pitching PAR after missing two starts during his time as a free agent.  He has settled in nicely as a very worthy third starter on the Moonshiners staff.

Apologies go to Jake Arrieta of the Jackalope, Dellin Betances of the Mavericks, Marcus Semien of the Gators, and Brad Boxberger of the Darkhorses.

Cy Young:

  • Max Scherzer, Starting Pitcher, Kings – .881 WHIP, 1.67 ERA, 5 W, 0 Sv, 72 Ks, 4.7 PAR
  • Felix Hernandez, Starting Pitcher, Moonshiners – .941 WHIP, 2.19 ERA, 7 W, 0 Sv, 63Ks, 4.6 PAR

Cy Young is an extremely tight category at the top.  There’s separation between these two pitchers and the rest of the field, but very little separates Max Scherzer and Felix Hernandez.  King Felix has been everything the Moonshiners could ask for after a draft day trade, combining his usually stellar ratios with wins, unlike in seasons past.  He looks to maintain his place as the ace of a revamped Moonshiners staff for years to come.  Meanwhile Scherzer has rebounded from a “slow” start to the season, where a lack of run support led to some hard luck losses.  However, a move to the National League has worked wonders for his overall numbers, as the usual filthy strikeout numbers are now combined with ridiculous ratios.  This race will be one to watch for the entire season.

Apologies go to Zack Greinke of the Moonshiners, Sonny Gray of the Jackalope, and Shelby Miller of the Kings.

Most Valuable Player

  • Bryce Harper, Outfielder, Darkhorses – .333 Avg, 39 R, 16 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, 3.7 PAR
  • Paul Goldschmidt, First Baseman, Jackalope – .333 Avg, 34 R, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 8 SB, 3.6 PAR

MVP may be an even tighter category between first and second place than even Cy Young.  Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt do it all.  Goldschmidt provides a great blend of power (12 homers), speed (8 steals) and high average.  His continued journey into baseball’s elite is certainly a reason why the Jackalope felt comfortable parting with long time stalwart Albert Pujols during the draft.  Harper is finally tapping into his vast talent, playing at a level that finally meets the hype and Sports Illustrated covers.  He leads DTBL in runs and RBI, is one short in the home run category, and is also providing elite average.  Both players provide numbers that can carry any offense, have the Jackalope and Darkhorses sitting at the top of the DTBL standings, and can keep them there throughout the season.  Definitely the elite production that teams are looking for out of their superstars.

Apologies go to Nelson Cruz of the Gators, Justin Upton of the Naturals, and Mike Trout of the Mavericks.

2015 Season Preview: Part I

Wednesday, April 1st, 2015


The 2015 baseball season is almost upon us, so it is time to take a look inside the crystal ball to see how this season will turn out.  Actually, there may be no need for that.  Back to the Future II already has this covered.  As foretold in that movie, the Cubs will end their 107 year championship drought by winning the 2015 World Series.  Of course, the movie depicted Miami as the World Series losers, so one can only assume the Marlins will get shipped to the AL at some point this season as Commissioner Manfred’s first highly controversial decision in office.  But since the movie didn’t touch on results from random fantasy leagues, I will once again preview the upcoming DTBL season using a set of stat projections.

Check out my post from two years ago for a description of the methodology used to create these projections.  Nothing has changed here.  Once again, I’m using ZiPS projections for all stat categories except saves (Steamer).  Stat projections for all 28 players currently on each team’s roster are used, except for a couple of cases where a player has already been ruled out for the season with an injury.  While all players are included, the team totals are scaled to match the regular roster size of 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.  So even your late round draft picks who you may hope to leave on the bench all season do play a role in these projections.

Two years ago, the projections wound up providing a very accurate picture of how the season would play out, with most teams closely meeting their predicted place of finish.  Last year, not so much.  The Kings were projected to repeat as champions, but instead needed a late season rally to avoid finishing dead last.  Meanwhile, the team that actually won the league, the Naturals, were projected to finish tied for fifth.  So take all of this with several huge grains of salt.  It should provide an interesting look at the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team though.  Without further ado, here are the three teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings this year.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 5th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (9th)
  • Runs Scored – 10th (9th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (6th)
  • Earned Run Average – 8th (7th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (7th)
  • Wins – 10th (9th)
  • Saves – 2nd (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (10th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (8th)
  • Total Points – 10th (9th)

Summary:

Well, somebody has to be last.  One thing I should point out is that the stat projections have all of these teams at the bottom finishing with far more points than they accumulated last year, with a much smaller gap between the top and bottom teams.  So the Gators aren’t really as far from being a contender as these projections might lead you to believe.  They do have a similarly constructed squad to last year though.  They are a team of speedsters with a strong bullpen.  They lack power and do not have an obvious ace in their starting rotation.  Michael Wacha and Alex Wood are a pair of guys who could assume that role this year though.  Perhaps the player they will count on above all others to exceed this projection is last year’s first round pick, Wil Myers.  Myers had a disappointing DTBL rookie campaign and will look to legitimize his spot on the roster this year.  This is a very young team so there are plenty of breakout candidates.  Clearly, they are going to need several guys to do so, particularly in the power categories, to become a contender.  While the bullpen is a strength, that saves projection may be a little generous since Steamer has free agent Rafael Soriano pegged at 21 saves.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 10th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (7th)
  • Runs Batted In – 6th (7th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 10th (5th)
  • Earned Run Average – 4th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 5th (10th)
  • Wins – 8th (6th-T)
  • Saves – 8th (2nd)
  • Strike Outs – 5th (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 10th (8th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (7th)
  • Total Points – 9th (7th)

Summary:

The Moonshiners are one of several teams that attempted to reshape their roster through big March trades.  For years, they have been a little short of a championship contender, largely because they lacked ace pitchers who could carry the staff to the top of the standings in most pitching categories.  But now they have Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, two of the best pitchers in baseball.  Not surprisingly, their pitching projections are much stronger this year as a result.  However, the overall prediction is not great because the offense appears to have taken a step backwards, and the offense wasn’t great as it was.  Gone is Josh Donaldson, who was one of their few bright spots a year ago.  But a healthy Prince Fielder could be just what the doctor ordered.  Rookie Jorge Soler will be asked to provide an immediate power boost as well.  On the pitching side, the projections are so-so for a much improved staff.  But if the offense is at least a little better than predicted, Hernandez and Greinke could help lead the Moonshiners back into contention.

Kevin’s Kings

Category – Projected Rank (2014 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (3rd)
  • Home Runs – 6th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 7th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (7th)
  • Stolen Bases – 4th-T (1st)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 4th (8th)
  • Wins – 2nd (10th)
  • Saves – 9th (4th)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (5th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 5th-T (9th)
  • Total Points – 8th (6th)

Summary:

The last three years, the projections have loved the Kings.  But then last season happened and the entire narrative of this franchise changed.  No longer are they a powerhouse with a bunch of the best players in the league.  Now they are a squad with aging stars and very little to hang their hats on.  To be fair, part of the reason why they do not project well this year is because so many of their players are coming off injury plagued seasons.  As a result, those players are projected to play less than full seasons again this year.  And that causes the full team projection to come in with far fewer total at bats than any other team.  Presumably, even if those players don’t stay healthy, they will be replaced by guys who are.  So the Kings offensive counting stat projections may be a little low.  Nonetheless, they do not look like a contender this year.  But they do have a couple very interesting young players who could be part of future Kings’ contending squads.  Their first two draft picks, outfielders Mookie Betts and Gregory Polanco, have a ton of upside.  The pitching staff is a major question mark with Max Scherzer being the only dependable pitcher on the squad.  This could be a bit of a transition year for the Kings, but it is hard to imagine them suffering through injuries to the extent they did in ’14. 8th place would be a pretty disappointing finish for them.

Blockbuster Trades Steal Show

Saturday, March 21st, 2015


The 23rd annual DTBL Draft began a week ago Thursday. The beginning of the draft always brings plenty of intrigue. But this year, the early rounds were mostly overshadowed by a string of trades that were completed over the first few days of the draft. In total, seven trades were made in four days involving six different teams. And for the most part, these weren’t minor deals involving role players and draft pick swaps. Several of the league’s biggest stars are now on new teams. Some of these trades indicate new philosophical directions for entire franchises.  But before I get to the details of all of those trades, I don’t want the first round picks to feel left out.  So I’m going to do my usual first round recap first.  There were plenty of interesting picks made there too.

Some years there is a fairly obvious player available for the team with the first pick in the draft.  Other years, there are several strong candidates for that slot.  This year was the former.  In what should have been a surprise to nobody, the Cougars used the first pick in the draft to select White Sox slugging first baseman Jose Abreu.  The Cuban star made his MLB presence felt immediately in the MLB.  He slugged 36 homers with 107 RBI and a .317 average on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.  Not bad for a guy adapting to a new league, not to mention a new country.  Abreu is the second straight Cuban player to be picked first in the DTBL Draft, following Yasiel Puig a year ago.  The Cougars badly needed an offensive boost after finishing last in all five categories a year ago, further making Abreu the obvious choice.  Really the only slight negative about him is that he is 28 years old.  That makes him the oldest first overall pick since the expansion Naturals took Jeff Bagwell back in 2002.  Curtis Granderson was just a couple months younger when the Choppers picked him in 2009.  Nonetheless, Abreu profiles as a guy who should help the Cougars for many years to come.

After Abreu came a string of four straight young outfielders with big upside.  With the second pick, the Gators selected the most established of the four when they picked up Corey Dickerson.  The Rockies slugger hit .312 with 24 home runs in his breakout season of 2014.  Playing half his games in Coors Field makes it easy to believe those numbers could get even better with a full season of playing every day.  Next, the Darkhorses selected George Springer of the Astros who displayed his immense power by hitting 20 home runs in his rookie year in fewer than 300 at bats.  He has five tool potential if he can cut down on his strikeouts a bit.  With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners took one of the bevy of up-and-coming Cubs superstars, Jorge Soler.  Somewhat overshadowed by a couple of those other Cubs prospects, Soler is the one who has already proven his worth at the big league level putting up solid numbers after his late season promotion last year.  Finally, the Kings used the fifth pick on another outfielder with big potential, Mookie Betts.  Betts can do it all.  His only current obstacle is a crowded Red Sox outfield, but you would think they will find a way to get him in the lineup one way or another.

The Jackalope ended the string of outfielders by going with the draft’s first pitcher with pick number six.  They selected Cubs hurler Jake Arrieta, who broke out in a big way last season.  This was not a surprising selection on the heels of the trade the Jackalope made immediately prior to the pick, which I will get to in a bit. Arrieta figures to be a major part of their rebuilt rotation.  The Choppers also took a pitcher in the seventh spot, selecting Tyson Ross.  The Padres pitcher had an outstanding season a year ago, but didn’t garner a ton of attention.  That should change this year thanks to the revamped Padres lineup.

As is their custom, the Mavericks were able to pick up an extra first round selection in a deal with the Demigods.  So they had two consecutive picks late in the first round.  They used those picks to draft Yankees relief pitcher Dellin Betances and Cubs shortstop Javier Baez.  These were both high risk/reward picks.  Betances put up ridiculously strong numbers out of the bullpen last year, but his value in fantasy depends largely on whether or not he will be a closer this year.  That seems likely, but he hasn’t been officially handed the job.  He can help the Mavericks in ERA, WHIP and K’s though, even if they go a different route (especially since they picked the other leading Yankees closer candidate later, Andrew Miller).  Baez is about as big of a risk/reward pick as you can get.  On one hand, he has immense power that could blow away all other middle infielders on the board.  But on the other, he has shown no plate discipline at all at the big league level and could easily wind up in AAA.  Of course, the Mavs have plenty of other players ready to fill that spot if Baez doesn’t pan out.  Finally, the defending champion Naturals finished the first round by selecting another good, young pitcher in Carlos Carrasco.  Slightly overshadowed by Indians teammate Corey Kluber last year, Carrasco could become a Cy Young candidate himself this year if he pitches like he did in ’14.

So that first round was all well and good, but it was most certainly NOT the biggest story of the past ten days.  There were four huge trades made on the first day of the draft before Abreu was selected with the first pick.  Then three more major deals were completed before two rounds were in the books.  These trades range from championship contenders looking to solidify their rosters, to second tier teams trying to plug major holes, to major franchise overhauls.  It is difficult to pinpoint which teams will be the big winners and losers from these deals, but one thing is for sure:  the players/picks involved in these trades will play a major role in determining how teams finish this year.

The first domino to fall was the Naturals trading Zack Greinke and their fifth round pick to the Moonshiners for Wilson Ramos and a second round pick.  Star pitchers being dealt was a big theme of the week and Greinke was the first.  The Moonshiners badly needed an ace to anchor a rotation that hasn’t really had a standout performer in recent years.  Greinke held that ace title for the Moonshiners for about a day.  The Naturals needed a catcher to fill the crucial spot held by Victor Martinez last year.  They used that early second round pick to select Garrett Richards, who they will count on to replace Greinke.  This is the second time Greinke has been involved in a major March trade.  The Naturals acquired him from the Jackalope in 2011 in a deal that saw Ryan Howard go the other way.  Greinke had four tremendous seasons for the Naturals and should be a major piece of the future for the Moonshiners as well.

The next trade was something you don’t usually see in March:  a one-for-one trade of star pitchers with no other picks or pieces involved.  The Mavericks traded their first round pick from a year ago, young starting pitcher Gerrit Cole, to the Jackalope for one of the best closers in the league, Aroldis Chapman.  This was the first of many changes for the Jackalope, who felt the need to get younger, particularly in the rotation with ailing veteran Cliff Lee’s season being in jeopardy.  Meanwhile, Chapman (along with first round pick Betances) give the Mavericks an almost unfair bullpen full of fireballers.  Their rotation isn’t too shaby either.  If I had to pick one team as a lock to win one category this year, it would be the Mavericks and strikeouts.  Barring injury, they look pretty solid in the other four pitching categories too.

As it turns out, the Cole/Chapman deal was just a precursor to a couple more one-for-one deals involving superstars.  The Jackalope immediately turned around and dealt their first overall pick from a year ago, Yasiel Puig, to the Naturals for third baseman Anthony Rendon.  This would have looked like an insane trade a year ago considering the Naturals nabbed Rendon in the sixth round.  But he was quietly one of the most valuable players in the league last year and plays a much more difficult position to fill.  Of course, his switch from second to third created a bit of a problem for the Naturals who were already loaded at the corners.  Unfortunately for the Jackalope, Rendon wound up injuring his knee right around the time this deal was made, which was part of a pretty tough week of injury news for their squad.  However, Rendon’s injury isn’t considered to be too serious, but will be worth watching as the season approaches.  Meanwhile, the Naturals are happy to have Puig and hope he can bounce back from a slightly disappointing season a year ago.  He clearly has major talent and big upside at his young age.

The final pre-draft trade skewed a little older.  The Mavericks dealt slugging first baseman Edwin Encarnacion to the Darkhorses for shortstop Hanley Ramirez.  The Darkhorses acquired one of the most consistent power sources in recent years while the Mavericks picked up a power source of their own at a premium position.  This figures to be Ramirez’s last year at shortstop though since the Red Sox plan to play him in the outfield.  Only Marc knows for sure, but I’m not positive this deal would have happened had they known they would be able to pick Baez in the draft.  As it currently stands, the Mavericks have five middle infielders and dealing Encarnacion temporarily left them without a first baseman.  But that is a much easier position to fill than 2B/SS.  The Darkhorses are hoping two ex-Mavs players will help boost their power output.  They also drafted former Maverick Carlos Santana.

The start of the draft did not end the flurry of trades.  Halfway through the first round, a deal was made that somehow managed to exceed the four I just detailed in terms of star power.  The Jackalope traded arguably the second best pitcher in baseball, Felix Hernandez, along with Ian Kennedy to the Moonshiners for third baseman Josh Donaldson and a fourth round pick.  Suddenly, the Moonshiners pitching problems were a thing of the past.  The additions of Hernandez, Greinke and Kennedy is about as big of a rotation upgrade as a team can realistically make.  Despite only being 28 years old, King Felix is already 10th on the DTBL’s all-time strikeout list.  He was a workhorse for the Jackalope in his nine seasons with them, pitching at least 180 innings every season and has struck out over 200 batters in six consecutive seasons.  He will be reunited with two other former Jackalope rotation-mates with the Moonshiners:  Greinke and Jered Weaver.  This signals a huge overhaul for the Jackalope who have been slightly burned in recent years by deteriorating health of their once invincible pitching staff.  Roy Halladay and now Cliff Lee seem to have been lost without getting anything in return.  They elected to make sure the same thing didn’t happen with Hernandez.  The Jackalope rotations of about five years ago were some of the best collection of pitchers this league has ever seen.  But now all are gone, except for Lee, who may never pitch again.  Oh yeah, almost forgot to mention that the Jackalope acquired Donaldson who was the Moonshiners first round pick a year ago.  Donaldson had a huge DTBL rookie campaign and could be in for even more now that he has moved to hitter friendly Toronto.

The next trade was of the more traditional draft day variety.  The Mavericks did what they do best, acquired an extra first round pick from the Demigods in exchange for second and third round picks.  As already mentioned, the Mavericks used that extra pick to acquire Javier Baez following their own selection of Dellin Betances.  As for the Demigods who probably had as few holes to fill as any team entering this draft, they moved down and took outfielder J.D. Martinez with that pick acquired from the Mavericks.  The third round pick turned into relief pitcher Santiago Casilla.  Interestingly, that second round slot was actually a pick they had previously traded to the Mavericks in a deal last May.

Finally, the Jackalope had one more superstar to trade away.  They dealt franchise icon Albert Pujols to the Mavericks along with a third round pick for Adam Jones.  A couple years ago, trading away Pujols AND a pick for Jones would have been preposterous.  But Pujols is clearly on the downside of his career and is not the perennial MVP candidate that he was for most of his career.  He is the Jackalope franchise leader in home runs, RBI and runs, all by very comfortable margins.  He spent 13 remarkable seasons with the franchise.  So trading him away couldn’t have been easy.  The Jackalope will have a much different look in 2015 without Prince Albert and King Felix.  Adam Jones is no slouch though.  He has hit 25+ homers each of the past four years and has become one of the most consistent outfield contributors in the league.  As for the Mavericks, this deal was mostly about plugging that hole left by the departure of Encarnacion.  Although Pujols isn’t the hitter he once was, by normal standards of judging players, he’s still one of the better first basemen in the league.  If he stays healthy, he should have several more big seasons in him.

So that sums up the first round of the draft and the seven deals that have been made so far this month.  It has been a well paced draft as we currently sit at the end of the eighth round with still two full weeks before the start of the season.  Thanks to everyone for keeping it moving and good luck with the remainder of the draft.

The Forgettable Five

Thursday, November 6th, 2014


With two teams breaking point records at the top of the standings, one could assume that records in futility may have been in danger as well. That wasn’t exactly the case for any one team in the 2014 DTBL season, but collectively, five teams did manage to make some history. It was a season to forget for the Kings, Moonshiners, Darkhorses, Gators and Cougars.

Those five teams were essentially out of the race before the All-Star break. The only real question was which bottom half position would each team wind up in. These five were separated by just a handful of points almost the entire season and frequently shuffled standings places. In the end, none came close to breaking any low water mark records. All five finished with point totals between 32 and 43. But the distance they were behind the champion Naturals is where records were broken.

It is common for one or two teams to finish miles behind the champions. But five teams is unheard of. The sixth place Kings finished an astonishing 46 points behind the Naturals. In the league’s history, never have more than three teams finished that far out of first place. And the only times when three teams did it (1998 and 2000) were expansion years where two of the bottom three were expansion teams and the third bottom-feeder was a team that folded following that season. To have five teams finish so far out of the hunt this year is really quite amazing.

The biggest disappointment of the bottom five has to be the Kings. They just barely avoided the worst finish ever for a defending champion, coming in one spot higher than the 2011 Darkhorses. However, a sixth place finish for a team that was considered a favorite coming into the year is pretty embarrassing, particularly when you look at just how far they were from being a contender. It was sort of a Murphy’s Law season for the Kings with everything imaginable going wrong. They were absolutely decimated by injuries, particularly early in the year. At one point in May, literally half of the players who were on their Opening Day roster were either on the disabled list or nursing some sort of injury. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Even the healthy players failed to meet the most modest of expectations. In one year, the Kings have fallen from a juggernaut squad with hopes of establishing a new dynasty to a team full of washed up players with a seemingly bleak future. Not one Kings player figures to receive strong consideration for the post-season awards. Only Max Scherzer, Ian Desmond, Jonathen LuCroy and a couple relief pitchers could be considered bright spots.

Expectations weren’t as high for the Moonshiners, but 2014 will still go down as a disappointing season for them too. Their problem entering the season appeared to be a lack of superstar players who could carry the squad in multiple categories. That remains their main weakness today. No Moonshiners appeared in the top ten in batting or pitching PAR. The early season loss of Prince Fielder was a dagger and David Wright was a disappointment all year. Two of their better offensive players were a pair of rookies: Josh Donaldson and Brian Dozier. Donaldson was a pleasant surprise out of a first round draft class which included a whole bunch of busts. Jared Weaver led the pitching staff with 18 wins, but didn’t get much help from anyone else in the rotation. Next year, they will try once again to acquire top level players to push them back into contender status.

The Darkhorses offense was respectable, but their pitching staff really let them down, leading to an eighth place finish. Veterans Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury were joined by younger players like Todd Frazier and Christian Yelich to form a pretty decent offense. But they are still waiting to get a full, healthy, superstar season out of Bryce Harper. And this year’s first round pick, Xander Bogaerts was a huge disappointment this year. They did strike gold with their second round pick though. Julio Teheran was their best pitcher this season. James Shields and Lance Lynn were solid too. The rest of the starters were not and the bullpen finished dead last in saves. Since completing their four-peat in 2010, the Darkhorses have now finished in the bottom half of the standings four years in a row. But they probably have a better stable of young players than any of the other four teams covered in this article. Also worth noting, the Demigods finished in this eighth place slot just a year ago. Perhaps next year the Darkhorses will make a similar leap.

The Gators have this ninth place thing figured out. For the fourth consecutive year, they finished in that same dreaded spot.  Part of their problem was a very disappointing DTBL rookie campaign for second overall draft choice Wil Myers who struggled through an injury plagued and ineffective season.  Also, losing their longtime ace C.C. Sabathia for most of the season was a huge blow considering how heavily they have relied on him to carry their pitching staff in the past.  On a more positive note, Nelson Cruz bounced back from his PED suspension in a big way, leading the league with 40 home runs.  Scott Kazmir and Alex Wood were shrewd mid/late round draft picks who were solid, but unable to completely fill the void left by Sabathia.  The bullpen was once again a team strength, although it took a bit of a blow towards the end of the season when Rafael Soriano and even Koji Uehara lost their closer roles.  One of these years, the Gators will put it together and avoid another ninth place finish.  Maybe next year.

This was an extremely disappointing season for the Cougars coming off a very solid fifth place finish in 2013.  Their last place finish was very surprising, especially for a team with such a solid pitching staff.  The offense was not solid though.  In fact, it couldn’t have been much worse.  They finished dead last in all five offensive categories, earning the minimum five batting points.  They are the second team in league history to earn the minimum batting points, joining the 1997 Tidal Wave.  The strange thing is that they actually had one of the best offensive players in the league as Michael Brantley burst into superstar status with his .327, 20 HR, 23 SB season.  Alexei Ramirez and Denard Span were decent.  The rest of their hitters really struggled, led by last year’s team MVP Chris Davis.  Davis hit an awful .193 before having his season popped short due to a drug suspension.  The pitching staff was actually quite good though.  Adam Wainwright won 20 games and was among the league leaders in ERA (2.38) and WHIP (1.03) too.  Madison Bumgarner, before cementing his legacy as a post-season hero, had another great regular season as well.  The bullpen was pretty good too.  Even a slight improvement to the offense next year to complment this very talented pitching staff should make this last place finish a distant memory a year from now.

We are well into awards season now with MLB announcing winners of some of the lesser awards this week.  The big ones will come next week.  So we better get our own award voting done soon too.  The awards ballot is now available on the main page.  Please take some time this weekend to complete your ballot.  I will begin announcing the winners next week.

Hall Welcomes Six Legends

Tuesday, July 29th, 2014


On Sunday afternoon, the National Baseball Hall of Fame enshrined six new members:  a trio of all-time great players and three legendary managers.  The three players, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas were all elected into the Hall in their first year of eligibility.  And the three managers, Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre are almost indisputably the three most accomplished skippers of the past 30 years.  The full class has been lauded as one of the greatest induction classes of all time.  What makes this class noteworthy for our league is that the three players are probably the first full class of inductees who would all be certain DTBL Hall of Famers as well, if such a thing existed.  Although Glavine, Maddux and Thomas made their MLB debuts prior to the formation of this league, the primes of their careers took place while on DTBL rosters.

The connection between Maddux and Glavine is obvious as long time teammates in Atlanta.  But it’s Glavine and Thomas who spent many years as teammates in the DTBL with the Kings.  Thomas and Maddux also have close ties in DTBL lore as both were first round draft picks in the inaugural DTBL Draft, making them the first official players for their respective franchises.  The Choppers picked Maddux with the second selection in that 1993 draft, following the Gators’ pick of Kirby Puckett.  So Maddux was the league’s first selected pitcher.  Two picks later, the Kings drafted the slugging first baseman Thomas.  As 13 year-olds at the time, Charlie and I may have let our personal fandoms of Maddux and Thomas sway our decisions, but neither of us would ever regret those picks.  In the seventh round of that same draft, the Kings grabbed Glavine.  He and Thomas would be Kings teammates for the first seven years of the DTBL.

Tom Glavine probably has the weakest DTBL Hall of Fame case (again, if there actually was such a thing) of these three.  However, he is one of only four players to record 200 wins in this league.  He won a total of 204 games for the Kings, Gators and Darkhorses.  He won 13+ games 10 times, a feat only accomplished more often by two other pitchers (Maddux and Mike Mussina).  Nobody has more 20 win seasons.  He did that three times (1993, 1998, 2000 – 4 others also have 3 20+ win seasons).  Glavine’s career ERA of 3.46 and WHIP of 1.317 may not seem terribly impressive by 2014 standards, but keep in mind that he was still going strong in the steroid era of the late 90′s and early 00′s.  His 1,724 career strikeouts isn’t quite enough to put him in the top 10 all-time.  When it comes to the Kings franchise record book, he’s #2 behind Randy Johnson in wins (115) and third in ERA (3.22) and strikeouts (1,048).

Glavine spent the first seven years of the DTBL with the Kings before being traded to the Gators late in the 1999 season for J.D. Drew.  15 years later, that sounds like an awful trade for the Kings, but it actually worked out quite well for both sides.  Drew wound up being a key contributor for the Kings first three championship teams while Glavine arguably recorded the best season of his career for the Gators in 2000 as he won 21 games.  He remained with the Gators until the end of the 2003 season.  The Kings reacquired him the following year as a free agent.  Finally, the Darkhorses also signed him as a free agent for the twilight of his career.  In his final DTBL season of 2007, he won his first and only league title with the Darkhorses.

There is a reasonable case to be made that Greg Maddux is the greatest pitcher in league history.  He’s certainly on the very short list.  He holds the league record for most wins with 240.  Only three retired starting pitchers have better career ERAs and WHIPs compared to Maddux’s 3.00 and 1.095.  But those numbers are slightly inflated because of mediocre numbers late in his career.  Nobody can match Maddux’s prime (well, maybe some guys in today’s pitching dominated game, but certainly not in Maddux’s era).  Even though he wasn’t thought of as a strikeout pitcher, only five have a higher career total in that category.  He is the Choppers career leader in wins and is basically tied with current Choppers’ ace Chris Sale in ERA and WHIP.  Only Mussina struck out more hitters while a member of the Choppers.

The numbers Maddux posted in 1994 and 1995 were easily the two best consecutive seasons by a pitcher in league history and, alone, were the two lowest individual ERA seasons in the books.  He had a preposterous 1.56 ERA in the strike-shortened 1994 season and followed that up with an absurd 1.63 ERA in 1995.  Oh, and his WHIP was under 0.9 both of those years as well.  Maddux won at least 15 games for 12 consecutive seasons, all with the Choppers.  That will be a tall order for anyone else to ever reproduce.  After 13 remarkable seasons with the Choppers, they finally released him after the 2005 season.  He had mediocre stints with the Naturals, Mavericks and Darkhorses (twice) to close out his remarkable career.  He was a member of four DTBL championship teams (’97 and ’99 Choppers, ’07 and ’08 Darkhorses).  So he teamed up with his Hall of Fame buddy Glavine for that ’07 title, although neither were particularly key reasons why the Darkhorses won.

The career numbers of Frank Thomas speak volumes about what kind of a hitter he was.  However, they were somewhat overshadowed by other players of his generation who would later become tarnished by connections to performance enhancing drugs.  But never mind that.  There still may not have been a better pure hitter in the 90′s than the Big Hurt.  Thomas hit 412 home runs in his DTBL career, which ranks 10th all time.  But more than half of the players ahead of him on that list have been tied to PEDs in one way or another.  Along with the home runs, Thomas had a career average of .297 with 1,323 RBI and 1,045 runs scored.  The full list of players with better career numbers in all four of those categories:  Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols and Vladimir Guerrero.  Thomas trails only the very tainted Alex Rodriguez in HR, RBI and R in Kings franchise history.

Thomas was a machine for the first five seasons of this league.  Each year, he hit over .300 with at least 35 HR and 100+ RBI and runs.  He even managed to reach those numbers in the strike shortened 1994 season.  He hit over .340 in three different seasons.  It wasn’t until very late in his career when the averages started to fall, bringing his career mark just below .300.  Unfortunately, a series of injuries in the second decade of his career really kept him from putting up numbers to rival anyone who has ever played the game.  But the Kings kept him on their roster for 13 incredible seasons.  He was a member of all four of the Kings four-peat championships (2000-2003).  He had a brief stint on the Mavericks roster in early 2006, but never recorded any playing time with them.  He did play for the Jackalope later that season.  Finally, the Kings picked him back up for his final two DTBL seasons.

Unfortunately, my historical records on awards and such from the early years of this league are a little disjointed.  So I don’t have an easy way of telling you about some of the honors these three players received during their DTBL careers.  However, I know for a fact that Thomas was the league MVP at least once and Maddux won several Cy Young awards.  Hopefully I’ll be able to fill in these blanks at some point, because this information is available somewhere on old hard drives and printed newsletters.

Finally, I want to wrap this up by mentioning a little bit about another Hall of Famer.  Sadly, the great Tony Gwynn passed away last month at the much too young age of 54.  Unlike the three players I just chronicled, the prime of Gwynn’s career was a little before this league started.  However, he also holds a special place in DTBL history.  He is the league’s all-time leading hitter (in terms of batting average) with an amazing .357 mark.  That is almost 30 points higher than any other player this league has ever seen and it is hard to imagine anyone ever breaking this record.  Despite that, Gwynn was not always an automatic starter for all of his teams in this league and bounced around to six different teams in nine years.  Of course, part of that was simply circumstances.  He wound up playing on three teams that folded while he was on the roster (Troopers, Titans and Panthers).  He played for the Gators in his first two DTBL seasons, followed by two years with the Choppers.  Despite ridiculous batting averages every season, he wasn’t a sure starter back in those days.  Because there were so few teams in the league, it was hard for some teams to dedicate a spot for a guy with below average power.  Had he put up those same numbers today, he’d be one of the most valuable players in the league.  But as it stands, he just wasn’t able to accumulate enough stats to appear in the record books for anything other than batting average.  His ability to get hits and avoid strikeouts may never be seen again in a player.  Guys who are thought of as good contact hitters today will still strike out more often the next two months than Gwynn did most full seasons.  He was a legendary hitter and will truly be missed by the baseball community.

DTBL June Awards

Thursday, July 3rd, 2014

We’re finally at the halfway point of the DTBL season, and it’s time to look at the best players up to this point. While a couple of players had ridiculous months that almost placed them in my top 5 list, I’ve decided to focus a bit more on consistency with my rankings. Sorry, Jose Altuve. I’ve again used ESPN’s Player Rater to help sort selections, particularly with Rookie of the Year. However, thanks to Kevin’s hard work with Points Above Replacement (PAR), I’ve used this stat to help with Cy Young and MVP ranks as well.To spice up the column a bit, and without giving away my entire ballot, you’ll find at the end my picks for All Star starters at every position, along with a closer. At the halfway point, it seems appropriate to recognize solid players who aren’t quite good enough to crack the top 5 at the end of year awards positions.

ROY:

1. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.950 WHIP, 2.34 ERA, 7 W, 0 SV, 103 Ks
2. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .248 BA, 57 R, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 3 SB
3. Anthony Rendon, Naturals – .281 BA, 53 R, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 6 SB
4. Yaisel Puig, Jackalope – .311 BA, 44 R, 11 HR, 45 RBI, 7 SB
5. Billy Hamilton, Naturals – .281 BA, 40 R, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 34 SB

The top three from May still reside here in the Rookie of the Year rankings. Julio Teheran has continued his stellar rookie season here in DTBL; more on him to come. Josh Donaldson and Yasiel Puig continue to put up big numbers. Anthony Rendon returns to this list after falling off in May, with 6 homers, 19 RBI, 18 runs, and a .310 batting average making up for a lackluster May.

Unfortunately, Michael Wacha (injury) and Sonny Gray have fallen off this list for now. Brian Dozier and Corey Kluber’s full season numbers would easily be worthy of Top 5 consideration; however, their late entries to their team’s major league rosters continue to keep them off. Finally, Evan Gattis had a ridiculous June with a long hitting streak and 6 homers of his own, but he, too, has fallen victim to the injury bug.

Cy Young:

1. Felix Hernandez, Jackalope – 0.919 WHIP, 2.10 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 137 Ks
2. Johnny Cueto, Demigods – 0.836 WHIP, 1.88 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 122 Ks
3. Adam Wainwright, Cougars – 0.903 WHIP, 2.01 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 105 Ks
4. Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks – 0.920 WHIP, 2.04 ERA, 9 W, 0 SV, 107 Ks
5. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.950 WHIP, 2.34 ERA, 7 W, 0 SV, 103 Ks

This list is largely unchanged from May, only seeing Clayton Kershaw’s utter dominance since returning from the DL replacing Zack Greinke. The superlatives of this group run long – top 5 in ERA. 5 of the top 6 in WHIP. Fantastic strikeout totals. Solid win amounts. Anyone in DTBL would be thrilled to have any of this quintet heading their rotation.

That being said, there is no shortage of pitchers knocking on the door of this group. Greinke. Madison Bumgarner. Jon Lester. David Price. Max Scherzer. Yu Darvish. The overall pitching talent in DTBL may never have been better than it is now.

MVP:

1. Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope – .313 BA, 57 R, 21 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB
2. Mike Trout, Mavericks – .314 BA, 54 R, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 10 SB
3. Edwin Encarnacion, Mavericks – .278 BA, 55 R, 25 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB
4. Nelson Cruz, Gators – .281 BA, 48 R, 25 HR, 66 RBI, 1 SB
5. Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals – .353 BA, 65 R, 18 HR, 47 RBI, 1 SB

Another month, another top two finish for Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout. These two players have almost identical numbers; Stanton’s slight power edge gives him the nod here over Trout’s speed. Edwin Encarnacion, after just missing in May, rightfully shows up here with his prodigious power numbers; better counting stats gives him the edge over Nelson Cruz. Finally, Troy Tulowitzki, who’s been here from the beginning, continues to ride his Coors Field numbers to an outstanding season. Hard to argue with a .353 batting average in June.

As I mentioned above, Jose Altuve raked in June. A .411 batting average. 17 steals. 11 runs and 9 RBI. He even missed three games. It was hard to leave him off this list, but consistency for the existing top 5 allowed them to hold on to their spots. If Altuve has a July even close to his June, he has a good chance of jumping into best of the best. Rounding out the just missed it group are Carlos Gomez, Michael Brantley, Paul Goldschmidt, and Victor Martinez. And, yeah, I’m still wondering when Miguel Cabrera will show up.

Here are my All Star starters.

American Divison:
C: Victor Martinez, Naturals
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope
2B: Ian Kinsler, Moonshiners
3B: Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals
OF: Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope
OF: Nelson Cruz, Gators
OF: Jose Bautista, Choppers
SP: Felix Hernandez, Jackalope
CL: Craig Kimbrel, Choppers
National Division:
C: Jonathan LuCroy, Kings
1B: Edwin Encarnacion, Mavericks
2B: Jose Altuve, Demigods
3B: Todd Frazier, Darkhorses
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Darkhorses
OF: Mike Trout, Mavericks
OF: Carlos Gomez, Demigods
OF: Michael Brantley, Cougars
SP: Adam Wainright, Cougars
CL: Trevor Rosenthal, Demigods

Comments? Disagreements? Have at it in the comment section.

DTBL May Awards

Wednesday, June 4th, 2014


Once again, it’s time to check out the best of the best in DTBL through the month of May. There were some massive months, particularly from the hitters as you’ll see below. Unfortunately, the biggest loss from the list has been Jose Fernandez due to his UCL tear and subsequent Tommy John surgery. Hopefully the injury epidemic is over for now, but this being baseball in 2014, no one seems safe.

On a more positive note, the players below are a decent mix of guys powered almost solely by an incredible May, and guys who have been consistent year round. As the season plays out, it will be interesting to watch if the streaky guys can finally maintain their play over an entire season, or if the steady mashers will rise, and stay, at the top.

All stats below are through May 31, and cover Rookie of the Year (ROY), Cy Young, and Most Valuable Player (MVP).

ROY:

1. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .280 BA, 48 R, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB
2. Yaisel Puig, Jackalope – .344 BA, 32 R, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 5 SB
3. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.932 WHIP, 1.83 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 66 Ks
4. Michael Wacha, Gators – 1.064 WHIP, 2.45 ERA, 4 W, 0 SV, 75 Ks
5. Sonny Gray, Jackalope – 1.122 WHIP, 2.31 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 60 Ks

There’s not much change in the rookie listings, as Donaldson, Teheran, and Gray all are carry overs from April. Yaisel Puig finally returned to his 2013 form, mashing 8 homers and driving in 25 runs while chipping in 4 steals, proving himself truly worthy of his number one overall pick this year. The other newcomer, Michael Wacha, almost made this list in April, but strong consistency vaults him past Sonny Gray in these rankings. Meanwhile, Josh Donaldson and Julio Teheran continued their stellar play from April, with Donaldson putting up almost identical numbers in May, and Teheran upping his strikeout totals to go with slightly depressed ratios.

Other rookies of note include Anthony Rendon, whose slow May dropped him off the leaderboard, Gerrit Cole, Evan Gattis, Shelby Miller, and Brian Dozier, all of whom have decent to excellent numbers in certain categories, but lack that overall excellence exhibited by the top 5.

Cy Young:

1. Johnny Cueto, Demigods – 0.758 WHIP, 1.68 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 92 Ks
2. Adam Wainwright, Cougars – 0.914 WHIP, 2.32 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 81 Ks
3. Felix Hernandez, Jackalope – 1.024 WHIP, 2.57 ERA, 7 W, 0 SV, 83 Ks
4. Zack Greinke, Naturals – 1.121 WHIP, 2.18 ERA, 8 W, 0 SV, 76 Ks
5. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 0.932 WHIP, 1.83 ERA, 5 W, 0 SV, 66 Ks

It’s hard to come up with words that can adequately express just how awesome the top pitches are this year. All five of these guys are bringing it in every category, tossing up video game style ratios with absurd strikeout totals. Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, and Zack Greinke, the April carryovers, have shown that their hot starts are no flukes. Felix Hernandez continues to show why everyone calls him King Felix, while Julio Teheran’s surprising rookie season is enough to vault him into the top five overall for pitchers.

Unfortunately, everyone could see that Francisco Rodriguez would come back down to earth after his impeccable start. But, even so, there are no shortage of pitchers waiting in the wings. Tim Hudson seems to have found the fountain of youth, Yu Darvish is dealing again after neck issues, Chris Sale, Kyle Lohse, and other are all dealing. The two big surprises, though, are Mark Buehrle, who’s spinning a top 10 season from the free agent list, and Jeff Samardzija, who was leading the majors in ERA through May but only had one win to show for it.

MVP:

1. Nelson Cruz, Gators – .315 BA, 39 R, 20 HR, 52 RBI, 0 SB
2. Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope – .316 BA, 40 R, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 4 SB
3. Troy Tulowitzki, Naturals – .352 BA, 45 R, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 1 SB
4. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .280 BA, 48 R, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB
5. Yaisel Puig, Jackalope – .344 BA, 32 R, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 5 SB

Nelson Cruz had a ridiculous May to jump him to the top of the MVP race. A .339 average, 13 homers, 27 RBI; all fantastic numbers. Giancarlo Stanton continues to smash the cover off the ball; one only wonders if he can stay healthy. Troy Tulowitzki continues to rake as well, with his .352 batting average still leading the majors to go along with solid stats all around.

Then come the two big surprises on this list – Josh Donaldson and Yaisel Puig. Both DTBL rookies are putting up numbers that not only lead their draft class, but compete with the numbers of the established veterans. After this point in the season, it would be no surprise to see them challenging for bragging rights as the best of the best the rest of year.

However, there is no shortage of competition for this race. The only thing keeping Edwin Encarnacion off this list was a slow April; his 16 home runs and 33 RBI in May were incredible. Carlos Gomez is the only significant power and speed guy, with 11 homers and 11 steals to go with other solid all around numbers. And there’s more, with Alexi Ramirez, Jose Bautista, Michael Brantley, and Paul Goldschmidt all waiting in the wings. In another version of the MVP list, any of those guys could be on it and they wouldn’t look out of place. Finally, Miguel Cabrera has finally remembered how to hit, and may soon take his accustomed place as a member of this elite company.

Questions? Comments? Grievances your player got left out? Feel free to leave your comments below.

A Painful Start

Tuesday, April 29th, 2014

Darkhorses pitcher Matt Moore

For several years now, it has felt like the number of injuries has been on a steady rise in Major League Baseball. I’m sure there are facts to back this up, but I’m so certain of it, I’m not going to waste my time researching it.  (That, and I’m lazy.)  This year, we’ve reached a new high (or should I say low?). The number of players who have been sidelined due to injuries in the first four weeks of the season is staggering. Actually, this all started well before Opening Day. In March, at least a half dozen pitchers had their seasons end prematurely due to torn ligaments in their elbows. Several other pitchers have been added to that list since the season started. And now position players are dropping like flies as well. The only good thing about these injuries is that no team has been immune. Of course, the level to which each team has been decimated varies greatly. And to a slight degree, this is reflected in the current league standings.

It would be a lot quicker to list the DTBL teams who have not lost a player for the remainder of the season due to an injury. There are only three: the Choppers, Gators and Naturals. But even those three have been dealing with injuries to key players. Particularly the Choppers who just got Adrian Beltre back while Chris Sale remains disabled for at least another week and Mark Trumbo figures to miss at least another month. Those are three of their top players. The Gators are about to get Hisashi Iwakuma back in their rotation for the first time this season and they are dealing with some minor injuries to offensive players as well. The Naturals have probably been the luckiest team in the league, from a health standpoint. But even they currently have three players on the DL.

It’s kind of a disaster for the rest of the league. The two top teams from last season have both been dealing with all sorts of pitching injuries. The Mavericks knew they would be without Matt Harvey this year. But losing Clayton Kershaw after one start was a huge blow. Meanwhile, Mat Latos and Taijuan Walker are yet to make their season debuts. Same for Manny Machado offensively. The good news for the Mavericks is that all of those players are expected to return soon.  The Kings may not have had as significant of injuries early on, but the sheer volume is starting to catch up to them now. Anibal Sanchez and Jason Grilli hit the DL last week, joining teammates Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Cuddyer and Nate Jones. They also lost two draft picks to Tommy John surgery within days of their selections: Patrick Corbin and David Hernandez, who both happen to play for the Diamondbacks as well. Several other Kings are dealing with day-to-day injuries too. It isn’t pretty.

The Cougars also lost a pair of pitchers to torn elbow ligaments: Kris Medlen and Josh Johnson. They are currently dealing with injuries to two of their top sluggers in Chris Davis and Josh Hamilton. Casey Janssen hasn’t pitched yet this year either. Then there are the Darkhorses who have managed to remain near the top of the standings despite another Tommy John casualty in Matt Moore. Mike Minor will finally take a big league mound for the first time this season later this week. But their biggest blow may have come this past weekend when Bryce Harper tore a ligament in his thumb and will be out until at least early July. Oh, Russell Martin is on the DL for them too.

How about the Demigods? Well, things were looking bleak in March when Doug Fister, Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto were all dealing with injuries. But Cueto has been excellent and Hamels is back now too. Fister should return next week. So all in all, they are in decent shape. Except they too lost a pitcher, Bobby Parnell, to a torn UCL. Kole Calhoun is currently out with an ankle injury as well. The Jackalope are hopeful about the return of Aroldis Chapman who suffered quite possibly the most gruesome injury of the spring when he took a line drive to the head. On the other hand, Avisail Garcia is out for the year with a torn labrum and Jurickson Profar won’t make his season debut for at least another month. Finally, we have the Moonshiners. Just one season ending injury for them: Brandon Beachy who has undergone Tommy John surgery for the second time in three years and has pitched just 111 innings since the Moonshiners drafted him in 2012. They are also without second round pick Wilson Ramos who is recovering from a broken hand.

So there you go. That’s a pretty staggering list of injuries, but there are actually plenty of others I didn’t mention who are currently injured or have already returned from previous DL stints, including a whole bunch of current free agents.  Everyone has their own theory on why all of these injuries are occurring, particularly when it comes to the torn elbow ligaments of pitchers.  I don’t think there is a conclusive theory out there yet though.  I certainly hope some of the best minds in sports medicine and therapy will be able to figure this out eventually, because it is taking a toll on the sport to see so many of the best players having full seasons in the middle of their primes completely wiped out.

There is a little bit of good news though. Injuries usually peak early in the season and settle down as the year goes on. So there is hope for that to occur this year too. But there are already a whole bunch of players who won’t be returning until 2015. Let’s all hope for a healthier May.

2014 Season Preview: Part I

Sunday, March 23rd, 2014

Choppers pitcher Chris Sale

For the third straight year, we’re going to preview the upcoming DTBL season by using player stat projections to determine the projected order of finish.  These are NOT my personal predictions, so don’t hold it against me if I have your team projected much lower than you expect.  For a primer, I recommend reading the first part of last year’s preview, where I explained the methodology for the projections.  I did it exactly the same way this year.  ZiPS projections were used for all categories, except for saves, where Steamer projections were utilized instead.

Here’s the cliff-notes version.  I used the projected stats for all players on each DTBL teams roster (post-draft) to compute team totals in all ten categories.  Because I don’t want to make any guesses on how you plan on utilizing your extra players, all 28 players are included, even those who you may plan on keeping in the minors all year.  Actually, that’s not quite true.  I decided to exclude the handful of pitchers who have recently undergone Tommy John surgery.  I didn’t think it made much sense to include players who probably won’t play this year.

Multipliers were used to normalize the stats so that the totals are based on approximately 14 full seasons from hitters and 9 from pitchers.  So, while your bench players are included in the projections, the team totals are adjusted depending on how many hitters or pitchers are on your roster.  It should be pointed out that my method does unnecessarily penalize teams who plan to use an extra starting pitcher in a relief pitcher’s slot.  Those teams should be expected to exceed the projected totals in wins and strikeouts since they are likely to exceed the IP totals of the rest of the teams.  So keep that in mind.

If you are wondering if these projections are even remotely worthwhile, keep in mind that last year’s projections turned out to be quite accurate.  They correctly predicted the top two teams, albeit in the wrong order.  They also identified the Cougars as the team that would take a big step forward, which they did, as well as the Moonshiners going in the opposite direction.  Eight of the ten teams finished within two spots of their predicted slot.  By no means am I suggesting that the teams at the bottom of these projections should give up before the season starts.  But this should give you a pretty good idea of the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team heading into the season.  I will try to point out instances where I don’t trust the projections for certain teams though.

On to part one of our season preview.  These are the three teams projected to finish at the bottom of the standings.  We’ll start at the very bottom and work our way up.

Mike’s Moonshiners

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 8th (9th)
  • Home Runs – 9th (5th)
  • Runs Batted In – 10th (8th)
  • Runs Scored – 5th (6th)
  • Stolen Bases – 5th (3rd-T)
  • Earned Run Average – 10th (9th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 10th (8th)
  • Wins – 7th (1st-T)
  • Saves – 5th (7th)
  • Strike Outs – 10th (7th)
  • Total Batting Points – 9th (7th-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 10th (8th)
  • Total Points – 10th (7th)

Summary:

Just two years ago, the Moonshiners finished 1 1/2 points away from winning their first league title.  Last year, they had a hugely disappointing year, falling to 7th place.  If these projections are to be believed though, this season will be even worse.  The Moonshiners biggest problem is their starting pitching.  If you glance at ESPN’s SP player rater from last season, not one of the top 25 pitchers are on the Moonshiners roster.  So they lack a true ace who can carry them in most of the pitching categories.  The good news is they will have the benefit of a sixth starting pitcher with Drew Smyly occupying a bullpen spot.  A big year from him would give them a huge boost.  The offensive projections aren’t great either.  They seem to have solid players across the roster, but like the rotation, they don’t have a ton of high volume stat producers.  The Moonshiners have never finished worse than 7th place and have been a consistent contender.  The key for them to avoid their worst season ever will be to have a few guys break out and become stars and for Prince Fielder to return to being one of the elite power hitters in his new hitter friendly environment in Texas.

Greg’s Gators

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 4th (5th)
  • Home Runs – 10th (9th)
  • Runs Batted In – 9th (10th)
  • Runs Scored – 9th (8th)
  • Stolen Bases – 1st (2nd)
  • Earned Run Average – 9th (10th)
  • WHIP Ratio – 7th (6th)
  • Wins – 10th (10th)
  • Saves – 2nd (3rd)
  • Strike Outs – 8th (9th)
  • Total Batting Points – 6th (9th)
  • Total Pitching Points – 9th (9th)
  • Total Points – 9th (9th)

Summary:

Well, no other team in these projections looks as similar to their 2013 results as the Gators.  In every single category, they are projected to finish within one spot of where they were last year.  This is somewhat surprising because they are a much younger squad now.  Gone is Gator lifer Derek Jeter.  And in are Wil Myers, Matt Adams, Michael Wacha and some other young stars in the making.  They now have one of the better core of young players in the league that also includes guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Jean Segura.  They do have a few weak spots and a very unproven rotation, which leads to a projected finish near the bottom of the league.  Two categories they don’t have to worry about are stolen bases and saves.  They have plenty of speed and possibly the best bullpen in the league.  If a couple of the young starting pitchers pan out, the Gators could easily have their best season in many, many years.

Charlie’s Thunder Choppers

Category – Projected Rank (2013 Rank)

  • Batting Average – 9th (8th)
  • Home Runs – 5th (1st)
  • Runs Batted In – 8th (1st)
  • Runs Scored – 6th (3rd)
  • Stolen Bases – 7th (10th)
  • Earned Run Average – 7th (3rd)
  • WHIP Ratio – 8th (5th)
  • Wins – 5th (3rd)
  • Saves – 10th (1st)
  • Strike Outs – 3rd (6th)
  • Total Batting Points – 7th (3rd-T)
  • Total Pitching Points – 8th (2nd)
  • Total Points – 8th (3rd)

Summary:

Now we come to easily the most surprising projection of all, and the one for which I am the most suspicious.  The Choppers were the breakout team of 2013, finishing in third place.  They were a title contender until late in the season.  So what gives?  The projections show them taking a huge step backwards in both hitting and pitching.  Last year, they led the league in home runs and RBI, but are expected to finish 5th and 8th respectively this year.  It’s true they didn’t really add any sluggers in the draft, but that still seems like an odd fall from the top of the power categories.  Healthier years from Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson, plus Mark Trumbo moving to the thin air of Arizona should keep them in the top half of the league in those categories.  The pitching staff will be interesting to watch.  Chris Sale was the shining star last year.  Alex Cobb is the newcomer to the rotation.  The one category drop which totally makes sense is saves.  The Choppers will not win that category again this year.  But they have plenty of potential closers who should keep them out of the basement.  In summary, I’m going to bet the over on this Choppers projection.

Bold New Faces

Thursday, March 6th, 2014

Jackalope outfielder Yasiel Puig

Baseball is supposed to be fun.  The first few players taken in the DTBL Draft all seem to understand that.  Besides their prodigious talent, what these guys have in common is a youthful exuberance that occasionally rubs their opponents, and sometimes even their teammates, the wrong way.  But only a curmudgeon who insists that the unwritten rules of the game be followed to a T wouldn’t enjoy watching these guys play.  And when it comes to fantasy baseball, you definitely want them on your team.

The 22nd Annual DTBL Draft kicked off Wednesday morning.  Almost exactly 24 hours later, the first round was complete.  The round featured as strong of a set of young talent as we’ve seen in quite some time.  Perhaps there have been stronger drafts at the very top spot or two, but the number of young superstars taken in this draft so far has been quite impressive, and should keep the draft entertaining for several more rounds.

The Jackalope kicked things off by selecting the Cuban phenom, outfielder Yasiel Puig.  Yes, Puig Mania has made its way to the DTBL.  It took Puig all of about a week after making his MLB debut last summer before he became the talk of the league.  From the monster home runs, mind-boggling throws and blazing sprints around the bases, Puig proved himself to be the definition of a five tool player.  Sure, some of those tools are easier to harness than others.  But there is nothing he can’t do on a baseball field.  Really, the only thing that kept him from being a complete no-brainer with the first overall pick was the Jackalope’s already full outfield and perhaps a small worry about a second year flame-out.  But the decision to take Puig couldn’t have been too difficult.  In just four months in the big leagues, he hit .319 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases.  Most years, he would have been an absolute lock for Rookie of the Year with those numbers, but we’ll get to why that was not the case in a bit.  The sky is the limit for this guy.

With the second pick, the Gators took another young phenom outfielder in Wil Myers.  Prior to last season, he was traded from Kansas City to Tampa Bay before making his big league debut, a very rare occurrence for such a highly touted prospect.  Once he got the call to Tampa, he did not disappoint.  He slugged 13 home runs in 335 MLB at bats on his way to winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.  Myers is probably the biggest power prospect in this draft.  He doesn’t have Puig’s speed or flare, but he already looks the part as a middle of the order power hitter.  He will join a Gators offense which has gone through a remarkable makeover the past two years.  He joins Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte and Leonys Martin in a very exciting and young Gators outfield.

Trivia question:  which team finished second to the Kings in batting points last year.  Unless your name is Dom, you probably didn’t know the answer is the Demigods.  Only a truly dreadful pitching staff relegated them to an eighth place finish rather than being a title contender.  But was their pitching staff really that bad, or just a bit unlucky?  Well, Johnny Cueto missed a majority of the season with an injury.  Cole Hamels only won eight games despite excellent peripheral numbers.  Doug Fister was his usual solid, underrated self.  And Yu Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Enter the third pick in the draft, Jose Fernandez.  For the second straight year, the Demigods acquired the best strikeout pitcher in the draft with their first pick (Darvish last year).  Fernandez had an absolutely phenomenal rookie campaign for the Marlins.  12 wins, a sub 1.0 WHIP, 2.19 ERA and 187 strike outs.  He beat out Puig to win the NL Rookie of the Year award.  The addition of Fernandez could turn the Demigods league worst pitching staff into one of the best.  I know there is a long way to go in this draft, but if you are looking for a sleeper team this year, the Demigods would be a solid bet.

Here are three awesome GIFs of the top three draft choices enjoying their home runs… yes, including the pitcher Fernandez.  Wait, Puig’s was actually a triple, which makes it even better.  Which one is your favorite?

The fun didn’t end with the first three picks though.  With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners elected to go with the best available player, third baseman Josh Donaldson.  Last year, Donaldson pretty much came out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate, or at least he would have been if we lived in a world where Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout didn’t exist.  He hit .301 with 24 home runs and 93 RBI.  Although he figured to be an early draft pick, the Moonshiners are a bit of a surprise suitor since they already have David Wright and Kyle Seager at the hot corner.  But all of them figure to be on their Opening Day roster.  Donaldson should provide a solid boost to a strong core of Moonshiners hitters.

With the fifth pick, the Darkhorses went even younger, taking 21 year old third baseman Xander Bogaerts (he’s a couple months younger than Fernandez).  2013 was quite a year for Bogaerts.  He progressed from highly touted AA prospect, to MLB utility player, to World Series starting third baseman.  Bogaerts is considered an elite prospect because of his bat and his glove.  The former makes him an attractive fantasy prospect as well, especially since he will likely shift over to shortstop next year.  This is the kind of pick that is becoming the norm in the first round of DTBL drafts.  Highly ranked prospects don’t stay on the board very long, no matter how little experience the player has.

The Cougars were the only team to pick a non-DTBL rookie in the first round.  They selected outfielder Domonic Brown with the sixth pick.  Despite only being 26 himself, Brown is actually three years removed from his one year of DTBL experience.  He was a disappointment in that year with the Demigods and was starting to look like a bust of a former big time prospect until his breakout 2013 season.  He slugged 27 home runs with 83 RBI for the Phillies.  In the previous three seasons, he hit just 12 homers while bouncing up and down between MLB and AAA.  But now he appears to be here to stay and should give the Cougars a solid power boost in their outfield.

There was no first round pick with a wider boom-to-bust potential than the Naturals selection of speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton with the seventh pick.  Either Hamilton is going to win stolen bases for the Naturals by himself by being an every day top of the order hitter, or he is going to be too much of a liability with the bat that the Reds will use him almost exclusively as a pinch runner or send him back to the minors.  There’s almost no in between for him.  But if there is a team that can afford to take this gamble, it is the Naturals.  They have guys like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki who will pretty much assure them of finishing high in the power categories, allowing them to play a one dimensional player.  But that one dimension could be unlike anything this league has ever seen.  Hamilton has stolen over 85 bases in each of his three full professional seasons and stole 13 bases in his first 13 major league games (with just 22 plate appearances!)  This is going to be fun to watch.

With the eighth pick, the Choppers selected second baseman Matt Carpenter.  He was sort of the NL version of Donaldson, suddenly breaking out of nowhere to become a MVP candidate.  He hit .318 and led all of baseball in hits (199), runs scored (124) and doubles (55).  He doesn’t have great power or speed, but his high extra base totals led to plenty of RBI as well (78), making him an elite three category player.  If some of those doubles start going over the wall, his value could soar even more.  The Choppers were the surprise team of ’13 and appear primed to make a serious run at the title this year.  Carpenter should help them in that endeavor.

The first round ended with two more young pitchers going off the board.  The Mavericks grabbed Gerrit Cole with the ninth pick.  The first overall pick of the 2011 amateur draft, Cole reached the big leagues for the Pirates last summer and pitched extremely well.  In fact, he only got better as the season progressed.  Some were a little concerned by his mediocre strike out rate in AAA, but he was actually more effective in that regard in the majors.  And throwing his fastball in the high 90′s, it is hard to imagine him not continuing that trend this season.  This year, he will try to replace Matt Harvey as best he can for the Mavericks.  But in 2015, a rotation of Harvey, Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg and Mat Latos almost sounds unfair to the rest of the league.

Finally, the Kings concluded the first round by taking pitcher Shelby Miller.  For the first few months of the year, Miller was one of the best pitchers in baseball and appeared well on his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award until Fernandez and Puig burst onto the scene and stole his thunder.  Miller faded a bit in the second half and then was almost unheard from in October for the Cardinals.  But that was probably the result of going well past his previous career high in innings and maybe the Cardinals being a little cautious as well.  If he can put together a full season that resembles the first half of 2013, he will quickly become one of the league’s elite pitchers.

For the first time in six years, no first round picks were traded.  On a related note, it was the first year in quite some time that the Mavericks didn’t make multiple first round selections.  But there was one trade completed during the round.  The Kings dealt second baseman Ben Zobrist to the Gators for outfielder Michael Cuddyer.  This was a trade of excess pieces for both teams.  After drafting Myers, the Gators had six outfielders on their roster while the Kings had four middle infield keepers.  So this trade made sense for both sides to fill other needs.  Zobrist has bounced between several positions in recent years, but has returned to the infield this year where he is much more valuable.  He will provide the Gators with solid power and speed at a very thin position.  Meanwhile, Cuddyer returns to the Kings squad that drafted and then cut him just a couple years ago.  Cuddyer is coming off the best year of his career, hitting .331 with 20 home runs in 2013.

The first round was certainly a lot of fun.  Let’s see what the rest of the draft brings us.