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  • April Showers Bring May Power

    Embed from Getty Images
    A new single month league-wide home run record was set in MLB in May. 1,135 home runs were hit across baseball this past month, surpassing the previous record of 1,119 in August of 2017. The full season home run record is on pace to be smashed again this season. In the DTBL, I don’t really have a reasonably easy way of determining if this same record was broken, but it is probably safe to assume if it wasn’t, we didn’t miss by much. There were 599 home runs hit by active DTBL players in May. As of this writing on the 6th of June, we are at 1,306 home runs for the season, which is easily above the pace of the record setting 3,231 DTBL homers way back in 2000. Just five years ago, 2014, there were 2,294 home runs hit the entire season. We figure to reach that mark before the end of July this year.  And to think we haven’t even reached the dog days of summer when typically balls fly out of the park at an even higher rate.

    On an individual player level, the DTBL did miss out on some of the month’s top home run production, however.  Three of the six players who hit at least 10 home runs in May were not on active rosters for the full month.  Only four of Josh Bell’s dozen homers were after he was activated by the Darkhorses.  Derek Dietrich shocked and confused the baseball world by hitting a dozen homers as well, despite not garnering a DTBL player pool spot.  And rookie Pete Alonso continues to make himself an intriguing draft candidate for next season as he slugged 10 home runs in May.  Of players who actually did produce a full month of stats for DTBL teams, Alex Bregman led the way with 12 home runs, while a pair of Cougars, Jose Abreu and Kris Bryant each hit 10.

    Meanwhile, things remain tight near the top of the DTBL standings.  As the calendar turned to June, the Naturals held an ever so slight half point lead over the Kings and four other teams were five or fewer points behind the leader.  Even the eight place team was within 15 points.  So almost everybody remains alive and well heading into the summer months.  May was a great month for the Naturals, in particular.  Not only did they finish the month at the top of the standings, but their players swept the monthly awards as well.  But first, here are the batters and pitchers of the week from May.

    Batters of the Week:

    Week 6 (4/29 – 5/5) – Alex Bregman, Darkhorses
    Week 7 (5/6 – 5/12) – George Springer, Darkhorses
    Week 8 (5/13 – 5/19) – Freddie Freeman, Demigods
    Week 9 (5/20 – 5/26) – Rafael Devers, Moonshiners
    Week 10 (5/27 – 6/2) – Austin Meadows, Demigods

    Pitchers of the Week:

    Week 6 (4/29 – 5/5) – Noah Syndergaard, Naturals
    Week 7 (5/6 – 5/12) – Hyun-Jin Ryu, Naturals
    Week 8 (5/13 – 5/19) – Joe Musgrove, Mavericks
    Week 9 (5/20 – 5/26) – Brad Peacock, Demigods
    Week 10 (5/27 – 6/2) – Max Scherzer, Kings

    The Demigods are having a tough season so far, but they do keep racking up these weekly awards as DTBL Rookie of the Year candidate Austin Meadows has now won a pair of weekly honors sandwiching his time on the IL.  Brad Peacock’s honor is notable because relief pitchers rarely ever win these awards.  Of course, Peacock isn’t actually a reliever this season for the Astros, but still interesting.  The Naturals had a whole bunch of players who had great months of May, led by a pair of NL West stars.

    Batter of the Month:

    Nolan Arenado, Naturals
    .425 AVG, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 25 R, 0 SB, 3.29 PAR

    Pitcher of the Month:

    Hyun-Jin Ryu, Naturals
    0.59 ERA, 0.679 WHIP, 5 W, 0 SV, 36 K, 4.35 PAR

    Nolan Arenado is leading the Naturals in every offensive category except stolen bases and is near the top of the league in most categories as well.  The perennial All-Star and MVP candidate is quite possibly having his best offensive season so far in 2019.  In May, he led the league with a ridiculous .425 average and 29 runs batted in.  Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich got off to a huge lead in the Batting PAR race in April, but in May, Arenado and his Rockies teammate Trevor Story started to close the gap.  Already at 4.2, Arenado appears to be a lock to reach 6+ PAR for a fifth straight season.  For the record, Darkhorses first baseman Josh Bell would have won this award had he spent the entire month on the active roster.  Instead, Arenado won by a decent margin over Cougars shortstop Story and Moonshiners third baseman Rafael Devers.  It was a strong month for left side of the infielders as Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman rounded out the top five.

    Perhaps the biggest surprise of the month was the eye-popping numbers posted by Naturals lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu.  Unlike most of the game’s top pitchers, Ryu doesn’t strike out an overwhelming rate of hitters.  Instead, he just never lets them reach base.  His May ERA of 0.59 was the league’s lowest monthly total since Jordan Zimmermann’s 0.55 in April of 2016 (min. 30 IP).  If you bump the inning threshold up to 40, then you have to go back to Jake Arrieta’s ridiculous final two months of 2015.  Ryu’s 0.679 WHIP was similarly rare.  Ryu currently leads the league in ERA (1.21), a full run better than second place Justin Verlander (2.27).  Needless to say, if he were to somehow keep that up for the full season, he would break Greg Maddux’s record of 1.56 back in 1994.  Ryu won this award in a landslide, a full point ahead of runner up Kyle Hendricks of the Moonshiners (Hendricks wasn’t activated until 5/6, so he probably didn’t actually finished second, but I’m too lazy to do the math).  Last month’s winner, Kings veteran Justin Verlander was also in the mix.

  • Someone Old, Someone New

    Embed from Getty Images Five weeks into the 2019 season, it is apparent that we will not have a repeat of 2018 in the DTBL where a single team dominated the league nearly from start to finish.  The Jackalope broke out to an early lead in the first couple weeks of the season, but since then, first place has been a revolving door.  The month of April ended with the Jackalope on top, but five other teams were within nine points of the lead.  It has been a rough start to the season for the Demigods and a couple other teams need to pick it up. But for the most part, everybody is well positioned as we move into May. On a macro level, the early season trends in baseball have been fewer hits (lower batting averages), more strikeouts and a lot more home runs.  The current league batting average of .260 would break last season's low water mark of .262.  But overall, offense is up, with the league ERA soaring to 3.89, which is higher than any full season league ERA since 2006.  The league WHIP is up as well.  So while pitchers are allowing fewer hits, they are actually surrendering more base runners due to a spike in walks. As you might expect with some of these extreme statistical increases, several individual players are off to record breaking paces as well.  Komodos outfielder Cody Bellinger and Darkhorses outfielder Christian Yelich each slugged 14 home runs in March/April.  That ties a league record for most home runs in the first month of the season, matching Albert Pujols in 2006 and Alex Rodriguez in 2007.  Bellinger's 37 RBI are an April record and his 32 runs also ties the record.  Spoiler alert, Bellinger will be mentioned again below.  Jackalope pitcher Gerrit Cole struck out 65 batters in the first month, which also ties a league record set by Curt Schilling in April of 1998. Again this year, I'm going to write monthly posts like this one, recapping the weekly and monthly award winners.  Here are the batters and pitchers of the week for the first five weeks of the 2019 season. Batters of the Week: Week 1 (3/20 - 3/31) - Cody Bellinger, Komodos Week 2 (4/1 - 4/7) - Anthony Rendon, Jackalope Week 3 (4/8 - 4/14) - Austin Meadows, Demigods Week 4 (4/15 - 4/21) - Christian Yelich, Darkhorses Week 5 (4/22 - 4/28) - Luke Voit, Naturals Pitchers of the Week: Week 1 (3/20 - 3/31) - Jose Berrios, Darkhorses Week 2 (4/1 - 4/7) - Mike Clevinger, Naturals Week 3 (4/8 - 4/14) - Blake Snell, Cougars Week 4 (4/15 - 4/21) - James Paxton, Naturals Week 5 (4/22 - 4/28) - J.A. Happ, Komodos Unfortunately, April was a rough month from an injury perspective for players who were off to hot starts.  Exactly half of the players listed above wound up hitting the injured list shortly after earning their weekly honor.  Rendon and Meadows would have been in the conversation for Batter of the Month if not for their injuries.  Bellinger and Yelich, on the other hand, have remained healthy and are off to historically fast starts.  But only one of them can win the month's top honor.  That goes to... Batter of the Month: Cody Bellinger, Komodos .431 AVG, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 32 R, 5 SB, 4.64 PAR Pitcher of the Month: Justin Verlander, Kings 2.45 ERA, 0.864 WHIP, 4 W, 0 SV, 53 K, 3.31 PAR An old guy and a (relative) newcomer.  23 year old Cody Bellinger not only had arguably the best month of April in league history, but on the short list for best months at any point of the season.  He is only the fourth player to ever hit 14+ homers with an average over .400 for an entire month (or a month and 4 days, in this case).  The others were Juan Gonzalez in July of 1996, Albert Belle in July of 1998 and Barry Bonds in September/October of 2001.  But Bellinger had a higher average than all of them, scored the most runs of the foursome and easily stole the most bases.  I don't have monthly PAR calculations going back that far, but I would guess Bellinger's was the best in league history.  While his rookie campaign of '18 was slightly disappointing for the Komodos, it appears they are getting everything they could have hoped for out of him this season.  It was unfortunate for Yelich to not have won this award because his numbers were insane as well.  Moonshiners shortstop Tim Anderson came in third. Justin Verlander's late career resurgence has continued into his age 36 season.  Last year's third place finisher in the Cy Young vote has started this season on top of the Pitching PAR leaderboard.  His 0.86 WHIP led all starting pitchers in March/April.  With 53 strikeouts in 44 innings, he's also maintaining an impressive strikeout ratio.  He is currently keeping the Kings pitching staff afloat, as no other starting pitcher on the team has a PAR over 1.  Verlander last won this monthly honor last June.  This award could have gone to a bunch of different pitchers.  Verlander barely edged out the Jackalope duo of Tyler Glasnow and Luis Castillo and Choppers righty Trevor Bauer.

  • 2019 Season Preview: Part IV

    Embed from Getty Images The final part of the 2019 DTBL season preview will cover the three teams projected to be the cream of the crop.  Two of the three were among the worst teams in the league a year ago.  However, a close examination of their rosters indicates that their struggles in 2018 were not due to a lack of talent.  Also, those rosters have been enhanced with some key additions via draft and trade.  The third team is less surprising, as they are the defending champions.  In the projected standings, there is an eight point gap between these teams and all of the ones covered previously, but only three points separate this trio.  In fact, spoiler alert, there is a projected tie for the top spot.  If you would like to skip to the bottom to see the full standings projections, be my guest.  But here are the three teams projected to be the top championship contenders in 2019.

    Nick's Naturals

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
    • Batting Average - 5th (5th)
    • Home Runs - 5th (10th)
    • Runs Batted In - 8th (10th)
    • Runs Scored - 6th (10th)
    • Stolen Bases - 2nd (10th)
    • Earned Run Average - 2nd (2nd)
    • WHIP Ratio - 3rd (3rd)
    • Wins - 9th (4th)
    • Saves - 2nd (4th)
    • Strike Outs - 2nd (2nd)
    • Total Batting Points - 4th (10th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 3rd (2nd)
    • Total Points - 3rd (8th)
    Summary: Last year was a huge disappointment for the Naturals.  In this preview series a year ago, they were picked to finish second.  Poor performances and injuries knocked them out of contention early though.  It is safe to say they were not fielding their most capable lineup down the stretch either, causing them to finish in eighth place, their worst finish since 2008.  That allowed them to select Juan Soto with the third pick in the draft, who they immediately traded to the Mavericks for Andrew Benintendi.  Benintendi should be one of their best all around players right from the start.  He will provide a boost to an offense that was kind of a disaster a year ago, finishing in last place in all of the counting categories.  Nolan Arenado and Trea Turner are their top returning hitters.  They do not appear to be as deep as the other top offenses in the league, but any improvement over last season will be much welcomed.  Some of that improvement could come from a bunch of their young guys who could be breakout candidates, including Yoan Moncado, Victor Robles and Amed Rosario.  The Naturals don't need to be the best offense in the league.  But as long as they bounce back to at least the middle of the pack, they should be in good shape.  While the '18 offense was a train wreck, the pitching staff was not.  They finished third in pitching points and enter this season with the core of the staff remaining intact.  Carlos Carrasco, Noah Syndergaard and James Paxton give them an excellent top of the rotation.  The bullpen is one of the league's best, headlined by Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias.  But the main man is Josh Hader, who provided impressive value to the Naturals last year despite not being a closer.  With Corey Knebel out for the season, Hader figures to add plenty of saves to his resume as well.  One thing that stuck out to me when reviewing the Naturals 2018 roster is how many of their castoffs were coveted by other teams and drafted relatively early.  You don't see that much from a team that finished near the bottom of the standings.  It indicates that this team is loaded with talent.  A jump from eighth to third place would be pretty impressive, but the pieces are there for it to be a realistic expectation.

    Jay's Jackalope

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
    • Batting Average - 7th (8th)
    • Home Runs - 2nd (8th)
    • Runs Batted In - 2nd (9th)
    • Runs Scored - 3rd (9th)
    • Stolen Bases - 3rd (8th)
    • Earned Run Average - 7th (8th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 9th (8th)
    • Wins - 2nd (8th)
    • Saves - 3rd (7th)
    • Strike Outs - 3rd (7th)
    • Total Batting Points - 2nd (9th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (8th)
    • Total Points - 1st-T (10th)
    Summary: While the five place jump projected for the Naturals is impressive, it pales in comparison to the Jackalope forecast.  The team that finished dead last in 2018 is now projected to tie for a league championship a year later.  If you are scoffing at this possibility, you shouldn't be.  This league has a history of teams bouncing from the bottom to the top in short order.  Just last year, the Kings won the championship a season removed from finishing ninth.  Also, it has basically been the story of the Jackalope franchise history.  They are almost never mediocre.  They either contend for the championship or finish near the bottom.  After three straight years of the latter, it would seem this season could see them return to the former.  The main reason for the optimistic outlook is the difference-making talent they added in the draft.  The two players in the draft pool with the highest projected PAR for this season were Ronald Acuna and Adalberto Mondesi.  They added both.  Acuna was the first pick in the draft and they traded up to grab Mondesi at the end of the first round.  Only two players are projected for a higher batting PAR than Mondesi (Mike Trout and Mookie Betts), who combines power with elite speed.  Acuna figures to be a five category stud himself.  But it isn't just the newcomers who have impressive projections.  Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rendon and Gary Sanchez are all among the best players at their positions.  Barring terrible injury luck, this will almost certainly be one of the best hitting teams in the league.  Whether or not they can actually contend for the championship will depend on the pitching staff, which was also not very good last year.  Gerrit Cole is the staff ace and should be one of the best pitchers in the game again this year.  His running mate from a year ago, Luis Severino, is a bit of a wild card this season though as he begins the season on the injured list with a bum shoulder.  It is paramount that they get him back sooner than later.  Otherwise, they will be counting on guys like Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow to have huge breakout years.  Their bullpen should be pretty good, but Wade Davis is the only safe bet to tally big save numbers.  The pitching staff should be better than last year, but there is not much room for error.  One thing is pretty clear though:  2019 is going to be a much better season for the Jackalope.

    Kevin's Kings

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
    • Batting Average - 8th (9th)
    • Home Runs - 4th (4th)
    • Runs Batted In - 4th (3rd)
    • Runs Scored - 9th (5th)
    • Stolen Bases - 5th (5th)
    • Earned Run Average - 1st (5th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 1st (1st)
    • Wins - 4th (1st-T)
    • Saves - 4th (3rd)
    • Strike Outs - 1st (1st)
    • Total Batting Points - 6th-T (5th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 1st (1st)
    • Total Points - 1st-T (1st)
    Summary: It is not surprising to see the defending champion picked to win it all again (in a tie, in this case).  However, the 2018 Kings weren't your typical champions.  They won the league in large part because they had historically good seasons from three players, built what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the first half, but then hung on for dear life as most of the roster struggled badly in the second half of the season.  This was not a deep roster.  But the Kings do believe the roster will be better from top to bottom this season.  The projections point towards similar results as last year:  a mediocre offense and the best pitching staff in the league.  On the pitching front, it was all Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander a year ago.  The rest of the rotation was kind of a disaster and the bullpen wasn't great either.  Their first place ranking in pitching points was a testament to just how good Scherzer and Verlander were.  They return this year, of course, but are obviously both another year older.  They do have some interesting complementary pieces this time around though.  Zack Wheeler and Andrew Heaney were early round draft picks and both should be able to improve upon the non-Scherzer/Verlander parts of the Kings rotation.  The bullpen features three closers, at least to start the season, in Sean Doolittle, Will Smith and Arodys Vizcaino.  This has a chance to be the league's best pitching staff again this year.  In order to repeat though, the Kings will probably need a better offense than these projections portend.  Defending league MVP Mookie Betts is the only Kings hitter on the shortlist of the best players in the league.  But there are a handful of under the radar players who could be key contributors this season:  Rhys Hoskins, David Dahl, Adam Eaton and Mike Moustakas (I would have had Matt Olson on this list as well had he not broken his hand last week).  If enough of these guys can provide at least slightly above average production, the Kings offense should be good enough to contend again.  They will likely get a more spirited charge from other teams though, as at least half of the teams in the league could be championship contenders. Here are the full 2019 projected standings.  The three teams covered above appear to be the top championship contenders, but certainly a whole bunch of other teams could make a charge as well and render these numbers meaningless.  It should be another fun season!

  • 2019 Season Preview: Part III

    Embed from Getty Images Happy Opening Day Eve!  Yeah, there are already a couple games in the books, but things get started for real tomorrow.  I, for one, can not wait!  As we move into the top half of the projected standings, we've already seen a lot of surprises.  This third part of the preview series will cover a pair of teams that are similar in terms of projected strength in 2019, but are otherwise quite different in composition, strengths and weaknesses.  Finishing close in the standings wouldn't be all that strange though, considering they finished last season with identical point totals.  I'm leaving three teams for the final part of this series because these projections have those three comfortably ahead of the pair I'm about to cover.  Look for that sometime this weekend.  In the meantime, here are a couple teams projected to finish near the middle of the pack this season.

    Mike's Moonshiners

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
    • Batting Average - 10th (10th)
    • Home Runs - 3rd (3rd)
    • Runs Batted In - 3rd (6th-T)
    • Runs Scored - 7th (8th)
    • Stolen Bases - 9th (9th)
    • Earned Run Average - 4th (3rd)
    • WHIP Ratio - 5th (5th)
    • Wins - 6th (6th-T)
    • Saves - 1st (1st)
    • Strike Outs - 8th (5th)
    • Total Batting Points - 8th-T (8th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 4th-T (4th)
    • Total Points - 5th (6th-T)
    Summary: Perhaps no team looks more like the 2018 version of itself than the Moonshiners.  These projections show them gaining a few points in RBIs, dropping a few in strikeouts, but otherwise staying almost exactly the same.  There is a pretty solid explanation for that.  The core of players who they will be counting on to carry them this season hasn't changed.  Several of their newest additions are future bets, like first round pick Shohei Ohtani, who will moonlight as a hitter this season before likely taking over as their staff ace next year.  One alarming issue the Moonshiners have heading into the season is a slew of injuries.  Most of those were known before these projections were generated though, so that in and of itself isn't a reason to doubt the projections.  Last year, the Moonshiners obliterated the league record for worst team batting average, hitting just .231, 18 points behind the next worst mark (also the Moonshiners, 2016).  They are projected to hit .252 this year, which is still worst in the league, but a huge improvement.  For a while now, they have lacked huge star power on the offense.  That still appears to be the case as Ohtani has the second highest batting PAR projection on the team, trailing only Khris Davis.  But Michael Conforto and Aaron Hicks are two underrated outfielders who could give them a nice boost this season.  The pitching staff is basically the same as last year.  It is a solid, yet unspectacular group.  All five likely members of their Opening Day rotation are above average pitchers:  Zack Greinke, German Marquez, Robbie Ray, Kyle Hendricks and Charlie Morton.  Marquez was the big surprise of the group last season as he was the first especially valuable Rockies pitcher in quite some time.  The bullpen is very good as well, currently projected to lead the league in saves.  Edwin Diaz will have a hard time duplicating his 57 saves from a year ago, but is still arguably the best closer in baseball.  Roberto Osuna is in the upper echelon as well.  The Moonshiners seem to be focused on building a solid core for the future, using early draft picks on payers like Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.  But they are in a position to contend should a few guys take big steps forward this season.

    Marc's Mavericks

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
    • Batting Average - 2nd (3rd)
    • Home Runs - 1st (1st)
    • Runs Batted In - 1st (4th)
    • Runs Scored - 2nd (3rd)
    • Stolen Bases - 10th (2nd)
    • Earned Run Average - 6th (9th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 8th (9th)
    • Wins - 8th (10th)
    • Saves - 10th (6th)
    • Strike Outs - 4th (10th)
    • Total Batting Points - 1st (2nd)
    • Total Pitching Points - 8th (10th)
    • Total Points - 4th (6th-T)
    Summary: This section requires a whole assortment of caveats.  In fact, I wouldn't pay much attention to the numbers above if I were you.  No team is harder to pin down on expectations for 2019.  Last season, the Mavericks pitching staff was absolutely ravaged by injuries.  Every one of their key starters missed significant time.  What was once the best pitching staff in the league, by far, wound up finishing dead last in pitching points in 2018.  In what I assume was an effort to avoid a repeat of that, the Mavericks have loaded their bench with pitching depth.  Their post-draft roster consisted of the minimum 14 batters and a league high 14 pitchers.  Since these projections take all 28 players into account, it is safe to assume that the pitching projections are hurt with more pitchers diluting the numbers of their best guys.  On the flip side, they have far less dilution of the offensive numbers compared to most teams.  So the overall point projection for the Mavericks is probably fair.  But I'd tack on a handful of pitching points and shave off a few from the batting side of the ledger.  One thing is certain:  the Mavericks will mash.  No team has a larger collection of superstar sluggers.  A draft day trade to acquire Juan Soto gives them an envious outfield trio of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge, all of whom could be MVP candidates.  The infield isn't bad either, especially with Manny Machado, Javy Baez and Ozzie Albies up the middle.  The only offensive weakness is stolen bases, where they are projected to finish last.  The Mavericks fortunes this season will come down to pitching.  As previously stated, the have a large stable of pitchers to turn to in the event that their starters can't stay healthy again.  But ideally, they will be able to turn to Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jack Flaherty to easily smash last year's numbers as well as these projections.  The bullpen is not the dominant force it used to be, but with Kenley Jansen and Jose Leclerc, I'd say there is a good chance they won't finish last in saves as they are projected here.  The Mavericks are looking to bounce back from their worst finish since 2011.  They have an excellent chance to do that.  But trying to use these projections to determine their fate may be a losing cause.

  • 2019 Season Preview: Part II

    Embed from Getty Images The second part of this 2019 DTBL season preview series will examine three teams that are projected to finish with nearly identical point totals, within a single point of each other.  Two of the teams are slotted just a couple points ahead of the ninth place Cougars as well, so that means things are projected to be very tight in the bottom half of the standings.  The previous post covered a pair of teams that finished in the top half of the standings a year ago.  Meanwhile, this one covers two more teams in that situation.  So for those of you scoring at home, that means that four of the five teams that will be projected to finish in the top half of the standings were among the teams that finished in the bottom half a year ago.  And the lone team that is picked to remain in the bottom half would still consider this projection to be a pretty significant step forward.  So I guess what I'm getting at is that 2019 may look nothing like 2018 in the DTBL.  Here are the previews for the teams picked to finish in sixth and a tie for seventh places.

    Charlie's Thunder Choppers

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
    • Batting Average - 9th (4th)
    • Home Runs - 9th (9th)
    • Runs Batted In - 10th (8th)
    • Runs Scored - 10th (7th)
    • Stolen Bases - 6th (3rd)
    • Earned Run Average - 3rd (4th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 2nd (6th)
    • Wins - 1st (3rd)
    • Saves - 6th (2nd)
    • Strike Outs - 5th (4th)
    • Total Batting Points - 10th (7th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 2nd (3rd)
    • Total Points - 7th-T (4th)
    Summary: Last year marked the fifth time in six seasons that the Thunder Choppers finished in the top four of the league.  However, once again, they weren't able to keep pace with the league champion.  Despite all of those high finishes, they've only come close to a title once in that stretch, finishing 2 1/2 points out in 2016.  It was a mediocre offense that held them back a year ago.  Unfortunately, these projections show that being an issue again this season as they are tabbed to record the fewest batting points in the league.  But there could be a little more upside this time around as they went heavier than usual on younger players with higher upsides in the draft.  Anthony Rizzo and Whit Merrifield have strong offensive projections, but none of their other hitters jump off the page.  New additions Miguel Andujar, Franmil Reyes and Willy Adames have intriguing potential though.  And let's not forget returning outfielder Byron Buxton, who was the top prospect in all of baseball just a few years ago.  If he ever figures it out, he could be a fantasy superstar.  The pitching staff was very good last year, but could be even better in 2019.  Chris Sale is a perennial Cy Young contender.  Trevor Bauer had a huge breakout a year ago and is their clear #2 now.  Bauer's Indians teammate Shane Bieber is the exciting new addition to the Choppers rotation.  The bullpen could be excellent as well, but Craig Kimbrel is going to need to sign with a MLB team sooner than later to solidify the group.  Otherwise, it will be Ken Giles and Jordan Hicks leading the way.  One fallback plan if Kimbrel never gets a job will be Corbin Burnes, who can continue the Choppers tradition of having a starting pitcher accumulating stats from a relief pitching slot, something these projections don't really take into account.  A seventh place finish would be disappointing for the Choppers.  If their offense is better than prognosticated, they will likely finish in the top half of the standings once again.

    David's Darkhorses

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
    • Batting Average - 1st (2nd)
    • Home Runs - 6th (2nd)
    • Runs Batted In - 5th (1st)
    • Runs Scored - 1st (1st)
    • Stolen Bases - 8th (4th)
    • Earned Run Average - 8th (6th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 10th (4th)
    • Wins - 10th (9th)
    • Saves - 5th (8th)
    • Strike Outs - 7th (3rd)
    • Total Batting Points - 3rd (1st)
    • Total Pitching Points - 10th (7th)
    • Total Points - 7th-T (2nd)
    Summary: Of the four teams projected to drop from the top to bottom half of the league this season, the Darkhorses would be the biggest disappointment if this actually came to pass.  They put a serious scare into the Kings down the stretch last season before falling a little short.  Had the pitching staff been a little more productive, they would have won the league.  But they are now projected to have the worst pitching staff in the league.  The numbers are dragged down a bit by a couple of their surplus Braves starters who don't figure to be regulars in the rotation though.  Speaking of Braves starters, they have four of them.  First round pick Mike Foltynewicz will be the key to ensuring they don't have the worst staff in the league.  He will slot in behind Jacob deGrom, who once again should be one of the best pitchers in the league.  A little more win luck for him would be helpful as well.  The projections aren't quite as optimistic about Patrick Corbin or Jose Berrios, but the talent is there for this to be a pretty good staff.  With Corey Knebel's health a huge concern, they may have trouble racking up the saves.  Brad Hand is the only safe bet to be a significant save accumulator.  Meanwhile, the offense should remain one of the best in the league.  They have seven hitters projected for 3+ PAR, tied for the most in the league.  Those seven:  Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Daniel Murphy, Xander Boagarts, Bryce Harper, George Springer and Christian Yelich.  And that doesn't even include J.T. Realmuto, who may be the best catcher in the league.  They could benefit from some positive home ballpark changes among those guys too, namely Harper, Realmuto and Murphy.  This is a very deep offensive unit.  Whether or not you believe the Darkhorses will compete for the title, or finish close to these projections instead largely depends on what you expect from their pitching staff.  If better than advertised, they will be a dangerous team once again.

    Kat's Komodos

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
    • Batting Average - 6th (7th)
    • Home Runs - 7th (5th)
    • Runs Batted In - 9th (5th)
    • Runs Scored - 4th (6th)
    • Stolen Bases - 1st (1st)
    • Earned Run Average - 10th (10th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 6th (10th)
    • Wins - 3rd (5th)
    • Saves - 8th (9th)
    • Strike Outs - 6th (8th)
    • Total Batting Points - 5th (4th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 6th-T (9th)
    • Total Points - 6th (9th)
    Summary: Finally, we come to our first team that did not finish in the top half of the standings last season.  But this projection also shows what would be a significant change in fortune for a Komodos squad that finished ninth a year ago.  Perhaps hidden a bit by the overall place of finish was just how solid of an offensive core this team has already assembled.  The 31 batting points they earned in 2018 was more than the Gators franchise they inherited had accumulated in any season since 2008.  Since their focus was almost exclusively on pitching in the early rounds of the draft, this is basically the same offensive team as a year ago, led by Jose Ramirez, Cody Bellinger and Starling Marte.  Two other guys who don't receive a ton of attention when focusing on the best players in MLB, but who are fantasy studs are Nelson Cruz and Joey Gallo.  This team's most glaring strength is their speed.  Marte, Ramirez, Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith should give the Komodos a great chance of winning the stolen base category once again.  The main reason for optimism that 2019 will be a huge step forward for this franchise is the seemingly improved pitching staff.  The second overall pick in the draft, Walker Buehler gives them a potential ace, which they simply did not have last year.  The rest of the rotation is filled with steady, solid veterans in David Price, J.A. Happ, Rich Hill and Jose Quintana.  At first glance, the bullpen doesn't look great with only Aroldis Chapman and Kirby Yates entrenched as closers.  But Collin McHugh is another potential stat accumulator as a starter in a relief slot.  These projections show the Komodos improving to sixth in the league in pitching points and sixth overall.  Those would be massive improvements over a year ago.  There are plenty of reasons for the Komodos to be optimistic about their second season in the DTBL.

  • 2019 Season Preview: Part I

    Embed from Getty Images The 2019 DTBL Draft wrapped up earlier this week and the regular season officially started on Wednesday and Thursday with a pair of games in Japan between the Mariners and Athletics.  So it is time to start looking forward to the 2019 DTBL season.  The Kings enter the year as the defending champions, having nearly gone wire-to-wire in first place last year.  They were somewhat fortunate that the season ended when it did though, because they faded badly in the second half.  That would seem to open the door for many other teams to be primed for contention this season.  But as we've seen in recent history of the league, that likely would have been the case even if the Kings looked like a juggernaut last year. As usual, I am going to preview the upcoming season with the assistance of stat projections, computed by using FanGraph's Depth Charts projections for 2019.  These projections are a combination of the ZiPS and Steamer projection systems with playing time estimates baked in.  The specific methodology I'm using is exactly the same as last year.  See last year's post for details on the switch I made to adjust teams' batting totals.  All 28 players who were on each team's roster at the conclusion of the draft are incorporated into these numbers.  While this methodology has some short-comings, I think it does a decent job of painting a picture of the strengths and weaknesses for each team entering the season.  As for the projected standings, last year's didn't prove to be very accurate, as they overrated the Mavericks and Naturals and underestimated the type of season the Demigods, Cougars and Darkhorses would go on to have.  So fear not if your team is one covered below! Once again, I will split this preview series into four parts.  I'm grouping teams that are projected to finish closely to one another into each post.  This first part will cover two teams that the projections show as having a lot of work to do if they want to compete for a title this season.  But they are also a pair of teams that easily exceeded their projections last season as well, as they finished in the top half of the standings.  So there is reason for optimism.  Here are the teams projected to finish in ninth and tenth places in 2019.

    Dom's Demigods

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
    • Batting Average - 3rd (1st)
    • Home Runs - 10th (7th)
    • Runs Batted In - 7th (2nd)
    • Runs Scored - 5th (2nd)
    • Stolen Bases - 7th (6th)
    • Earned Run Average - 9th (1st)
    • WHIP Ratio - 7th (2nd)
    • Wins - 5th (6th-T)
    • Saves - 9th (10th)
    • Strike Outs - 9th (9th)
    • Total Batting Points - 8th-T (3rd)
    • Total Pitching Points - 9th (6th)
    • Total Points - 10th (3rd)
    Summary: This is not a pretty forecast for a Demigods squad that finished in third place a year ago.  But they do have a recent history of beating these projections as they were also picked near the bottom of the league the past couple years and wound up closer to the top.  In fact, the Demigods have finished in the top half of the standings five straight years, but are still seeking their first championship.  These projections show the Demigods taking a pretty big step back in both batting and pitching, but it is the offensive numbers that are most alarming considering they were one of the best hitting teams in the league a season ago.  One thing to note is they currently have a bench of almost all hitters, including a third catcher, which does drag down the numbers a bit by lessening the impact of their top players.  J.D. Martinez, Francisco Lindor, Jose Altuve and Freddie Freeman remain their top hitters.  Their first four draft picks were all hitters, so they are hoping at least one of Jesus Aguilar, Jurickson Profar, Brandon Nimmo and Austin Meadows can break into that upper echelon as well.  With those stars and solid depth, I like the Demigods to easily exceed the batting projections.  I think the pitching staff is the bigger question mark.  Corey Kluber and Aaron Nola are studs, but the rest of the rotation could be a drag.  Perhaps they will be able to ride those two aces similar to the way the Kings did with Scherzer and Verlander last year though.  The Demigods completely ignored saves last year, finishing last.  They might be able to move up a couple spots this year, but they still don't have any certain full-time closers.  Mychal Givens, Trevor May and Brandon Morrow provide possibilities though.  If the Demigods are going to compete this year, they'll need some of their new offensive players to break out and the back of the rotation to exceed projections.  This team coming in last in these projections shows just how competitive this league figures to be in 2019, from top to bottom.  The Demigods have a very talented team.

    Kelly's Cougars

    Category - Projected Rank (2018 Rank)
    • Batting Average - 4th (6th)
    • Home Runs - 8th (6th)
    • Runs Batted In - 6th (6th-T)
    • Runs Scored - 8th (4th)
    • Stolen Bases - 4th (7th)
    • Earned Run Average - 5th (7th)
    • WHIP Ratio - 4th (7th)
    • Wins - 7th (1st-T)
    • Saves - 7th (5th)
    • Strike Outs - 10th (6th)
    • Total Batting Points - 6th-T (6th)
    • Total Pitching Points - 6th-T (5th)
    • Total Points - 9th (5th)
    Summary: Even though these projections show the Cougars dropping four spots in the standings, if you take a closer look, they are actually projected to be a very similar team in 2019 to the one that finished in the top half of the standings a year ago.  Plus, the Cougars are another team that has frequently beaten these projections in recent years.  The past two seasons have been a nice resurgence for this franchise which hasn't won a championship in 23 years now.  What they will need to do to put an end to that dry spell is to slightly improve across the board, moving from middle of the pack to elite.  They don't have a lot of weaknesses, but also have a shortage of superstars.  One player who definitely needs to have a better 2019 is Kris Bryant.  Him returning to production worthy of a MVP candidate would help greatly.  A pair of Rockies, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon are the other two offensive standouts, and the only players who had particularly strong seasons for the Cougars a year ago.  Eugenio Suarez is another under the radar key contributor.  Newcomer Gleyber Torres figures to add a boost to the infield as well.  Blake Snell carried the Cougars pitching staff a year ago and appears likely to do the same this season.  Jameson Taillon continues to improve and should be a nice number two.  In addition to Bryant, the other key player for the Cougars who needs a '19 bounce back is Madison Bumgarner.  Injuries have derailed his past two seasons.  A healthy and productive Bumgarner would go a long way towards proving these projections to be overly pessimistic.  The bullpen has a chance to be the league's best.  While only projected to finish seventh in saves, bet the over.  Alex Colome is only slotted for three saves in these numbers.  He should exceed that in the first couple weeks.  Blake Treinen, David Robertson, Cody Allen and Archie Bradley give the Cougars the deepest pen in the league.  Perhaps a lot needs to go right for the Cougars to win it all this year, but there are plenty of categories where they have a good chance to beat these projections.

  • Acuna, Soto Highlight Round One

    Embed from Getty Images The first round of the DTBL Draft almost always features a crop of young up-and-coming stars.  But this year's group is especially notable for their youth.  Eight of the ten players selected in the first round are under 25 years old, including the first seven picks of the draft.  And two players, Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto, are among the most accomplished players at their age to ever enter the league.  Acuna and Soto just turned 21 and 20 respectively over the offseason.  All ten first round selections are DTBL rookies.  A trade of two marquee players also highlighted an excellent start to the 2019 DTBL Draft. For the second straight year, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year was the first pick of the draft.  Ronald Acuna joins the Jackalope coming off a stellar rookie campaign.  He hit .293 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, flashing all of his plus tools.  The Braves outfielder became a star almost immediately upon promotion and helped lead his team to an unexpected division championship.  He could help the Jackalope make a similar jump in the standings this year.  The Jackalope offense was especially disappointing a year ago, but the pieces are still there to be one of the best teams in the league.  Acuna was a pretty clear choice here. Last year, the Komodos took a young Dodgers star with the first pick of the draft (Cody Bellinger).  This year, they took another young Dodgers star with the second pick.  Walker Buehler should give a significant boost to a pitching staff that really struggled a year ago.  Buehler was pretty clearly the best pitcher available in this draft.  In 137 big league innings, he struck out 151 while posting an impressive 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  That ERA is a full point lower than any Komodos starting pitcher posted in '18, when they finished dead last in the league in that category, by a healthy margin.  Buehler will immediately become the Komodos best pitcher. Juan Soto has already put himself in rarefied air based on his accomplishments in the big leagues as a teenager.  Nobody was expecting Soto to reach the majors for another year or two, but a series of injuries to Nationals outfielders caused them to bring him up last May. He was an immediate success and made it impossible to send him back down.  He was so good in his rookie campaign that the Nationals decided to only make a halfhearted attempt to retain Bryce Harper this winter.  Soto hit .292 with 22 homers in just 414 at bats.  The Naturals selected him with the third pick and he could have joined his Nationals teammate Victor Robles to form an exciting young duo for the Naturals as well.  But Soto was immediately traded to the Mavericks in a blockbuster swap of outfielders.  In return, the Naturals acquired Andrew Benintendi.  These are two of the best outfielders in the game, so this is quite a swap.  Benintendi is more established and is a little more well-rounded, offering a stolen base threat as well.  But Soto has a nearly unlimited upside in the power categories.  It will be very interesting to compare these players as their careers progress.  For the Mavericks, an outfield of Soto, Mike Trout and Aaron Judge is pretty darn scary.  But the Naturals have no shortage of young star hitters either. With the fourth pick, the Moonshiners selected this year's most interesting player, two-way star Shohei Ohtani.  Coming over from Japan, Ohtani was expected to be an immediate star on the mound, but many questioned if he would really be able to hit big league pitching.  In fact, some thought if he truly wanted to be a two-way player, he may need some time in the minors.  Well, turns out he can hit major league pitching.  He hit .285 with 22 home runs in just 326 at bats.  An injury limited him to just 51 innings on the mound, where he struck out 63 with a 3.31 ERA.  Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in 2019.  He does intend to hit, but probably won't see action in a big league game until May.  The Moonshiners have all sorts of options with Ohtani.  First, they can use him at 1B or OF this year since he didn't play a non-pitching field position last year.  And looking forward, they will have the option to use him as either a pitcher or hitter next year, assuming he is a keeper.  The sky is the limit with this pick, but the Moonshiners probably won't get their money's worth until next year and beyond. The Mavericks aren't used to picking in the first half of the first round, at least not with their own pick.  Last year was the first time they finished in the bottom half of the standings since 2011.  They took advantage of the rare positioning to acquire two of the top five players selected in this draft.  In addition to the trade for Soto, they selected pitcher Jack Flaherty with the fifth pick.  The Mavericks have an absolutely loaded offense, but the once undisputed top pitching staff in the league was anything but that a year ago.  Injuries destroyed the staff and caused them to finish dead last in pitching points.  Flaherty is the first step to try to rebuild that group.  Overshadowed a bit by the players already mentioned above, he had a rather dominant rookie campaign as well.  182 strikeouts in 151 innings is great for any pitcher, much less a 22 year old rookie.  The Cardinals hurler also had a strong 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  He should provide stability for this revamped staff. The Cougars have had a pretty good recent track record of selecting hitters in the first round.  Second baseman Gleyber Torres is the next in line.  The Cougars will likely open the season with their offensive lineup featuring their past five first round picks.  Torres is younger than all of his predecessors though at the time of joining the squad.  He hit .271 with 24 home runs during his age 21 rookie season.  That combination of ability and age should make him a fixture on the Cougars roster for a very long time.  The Yankees have a lot of options in their infield this year, but one thing is certain.  Torres will be playing virtually every day, whether it be at second base or shortstop. Speaking of impressive young Yankees infielders, another one was selected with the seventh pick, with the Choppers taking third baseman Miguel Andujar.  Andujar hit .297 with 27 homers and 92 RBI, to finish second in the American League Rookie of the Year vote, behind Ohtani.  The only knock on him is his glove, but that matters not at all in fantasy.  The Choppers will look to Andujar to replace team legend and future Hall-of-Famer Adrian Beltre, who retired over the winter.  If Andujar can provide a spark to the Choppers offense, they could have a chance of ending their 20 year title drought. For the second straight year, the Demigods took the old guy of the first round.  But in this case, it is still a league rookie.  Jesus Aguilar started the 2018 season as a bench player for the Brewers.  But the first baseman immediately showed off his incredible power, quickly earned a starting job, and then made the NL All-Star team.  He slugged 35 homers with 108 runs batted in.  He did cool off a bit in the second half of the season, with only 11 of those homers coming after the All-Star break.  Outside of maybe Acuna and Soto, he was probably the safest bet for power in this draft.  The Demigods finished eighth in home runs last year, the biggest weakness for an otherwise strong offensive team. The Darkhorses selected Braves pitcher Mike Foltynewicz with the eighth pick, making this the first time since 2015 that more than two pitchers were taken in the first round.  Foltynewicz had a breakout season a year ago, which earned him an All-Star appearance.  He struck out 202 hitters in 183 innings with a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  His previous best ERA season was 4.31, so '18 saw quite a dramatic improvement.  While he has spent parts of five seasons in the majors, he is still just 27 years old.  The Darkhorses barely missed winning the championship last year, with a mediocre pitching staff holding them back.  Foltynewicz could be exactly what they need to get over the hump. Sitting with the last pick in the first round, the Kings believed there was one player remaining who was clearly the best available, but he was at a position in which they were already well stacked.  So instead, they swung a trade with the Jackalope to move up a spot to grab that player.  The Kings received the Jackalope 2nd round pick (11th overall) along with a swap of 4th round slots.  The Jackalope then took Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to close out the first round.  Mondesi is a rare breed in that he is an elite base stealer, but also has surprising power.  He managed to steal 32 bases and hit 14 home runs despite not making his big league season debut until late June.  While he's unlikely to maintain a pace like that for a full season, he still could be an above average contributor to the power categories while potentially leading the league in steals.  Once considered an elite prospect, Mondesi had slipped under the radar a bit before his 2018 breakout.  Slight spoiler alert for my upcoming season preview articles, but you definitely won't see the Jackalope projected to finish last again.  They managed to acquire the two players with the highest projected PAR in the entire draft pool.  So the Jackalope started and finished the first round with a bang.  Meanwhile, the Kings selected starting pitcher Zack Wheeler with that pick they acquired from the Jackalope, the first pick of the second round. Thanks to all of you for the excellent pace to the first half of this draft.  At this rate, we'll be done with plenty of time to spare before the Japan openers.  Let's keep up the good work!

  • 2018: Year of Mookie

    Embed from Getty Images
    In 2016, the Kings won the DTBL Championship, a Cougars player (Kris Bryant) won Rookie of the Year, Kings pitcher Max Scherzer won the Cy Young award and Kings outfielder Mookie Betts won the Most Valuable Player award.  This year, the Kings won the DTBL Championship, a Cougars player (Blake Snell) won Rookie of the Year, Kings pitcher Max Scherzer won the Cy Young award, and… yes, you have figured out where this is going.  History has repeated itself.  Perhaps no offensive player in league history has been more solely responsible for his team winning a championship than Betts was this season.  Mookie Betts is the 2018 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    For the first time in his young, but highly productive career, Mookie Betts joined the 30/30 club this season.  He notched career highs in both home runs (32) and stolen bases (30).  Those numbers alone put him in pretty elite company, but his league leading .346 average took things to another level.  Only one player in league history has had a higher average while joining the 30/30 club.  Larry Walker’s insane 1997 season featured a .366/49/33 line.  Oh, Betts also led the league in runs scored with 129.  Somewhat surprisingly, he was not on top of the Batting PAR leaderboard.  His 11.3 was awfully impressive, but was topped by Christian Yelich’s 11.6.  As an entire team, the championship winning Kings accumulated 22.2 Batting PAR.  So yes, Betts was responsible for more than half of that!  No other Kings hitter reached 5 PAR. Not a bad year for him: AL MVP, World Series champion, DTBL MVP and DTBL champion.

    The Kings drafted Betts with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft.  Two of the players taken ahead of him:  Corey Dickerson and Jorge Soler (sorry, Mike).  So far, Betts has won the MVP in half of his DTBL seasons, taking home the honor in 2016 as well.  His numbers from this season were slightly better in most categories, except RBIs, the only category where he didn’t set a career high.  In addition to joining the 30/30 single season club, he also reached the 100/100 HR/SB club for his career this season, now sitting at 105/100 with an average of .303.  He is the only player in the league with 100 homers and stolen bases since 2015.  And only Mike Trout can top Betts’ career PAR of 34.7 since ’15.  There is no question that Betts has established himself as one of the best all around players in the game.

    Despite the gaudy numbers, this award did not come easily for Betts.  As mentioned, he didn’t lead the league in PAR, so it is unsurprising that he wasn’t the clear choice for this award either.  But he did receive a majority of the first place votes:  seven to be exact.  Interestingly, one person did not have him on the ballot.  He compiled 82 points, besting the runner-up by nine.  Finishing second was the PAR leader, Darkhorses outfielder Christian Yelich.  Yelich was insanely hot over the last two months of the season, easily claiming the NL MVP award.  Like Betts, he was a strong five category player, beating Betts in home runs and RBIs, but falling a bit behind in average, runs and steals.  Yelich was the only player who appeared on all ten ballots.  But he received just one first place vote, along with nine seconds, leaving him a bit short of Betts.  While those two were the clear leaders, several others received strong consideration as well.  Betts’ Red Sox teammate and Demigods outfielder J.D. Martinez hit .330 with 46 home runs.  Martinez got a first place vote and earned 42 points to finish third.  Right behind him was Komodos third baseman Jose Ramirez, who proved his breakout ’17 season was no fluke.  Ramirez actually looked like the favorite to win this award before struggling a bit down the stretch.  He also received a first place vote and compiled 40 points.  His Indians teammate rounded out the top five.  Demigods shortstop Francisco Lindor had a pretty great five category performance as well, but was overshadowed a bit by the guys mentioned above.  Lindor made a majority of the ballots (six) and totaled 14 points.  Any of these five guys could have won this award with their numbers in a different season. Although he failed to make the top five for the second straight season, I think it is worth pointing out that Mavericks outfielder Mike Trout has now received MVP votes all seven years of his DTBL career.  Even his worst seasons are elite.

    Click here to view the full voting results.

    And that’s a wrap on the baseball award season.  Now it is time to start jumping into my offseason work.  There will be plenty of enhancements, but I’ve learned not to make any promises on what I will actually accomplished.  So stay tuned.  Happy Thanksgiving!

  • Scherzer Wins Another Cy Young

    Embed from Getty Images On a year-to-year basis, you know exactly what you are going to get from Max Scherzer:  a sub 3.00 ERA, a sub 1.00 WHIP, 15-20 wins, over 200 innings and at least 250 strikeouts.  His stat lines from each of the past six seasons have been astonishingly similar.  But 2018 may have been his best season yet.  He failed to win his third consecutive National League Cy Young award due to the historically great season that Jacob deGrom had, but from a roto perspective, Scherzer's year was better.  This is the fifth time in the past six years that Scherzer has finished in the top five of this league's Cy Young vote and the second time he has come out on top.  Kings starting pitcher Max Scherzer is the 2018 DTBL Cy Young award winner. It is hard to pick out Scherzer's best career season, but I would make the case that 2018 is the new leader.  He posted the highest PAR of his career, a league leading 14.0.  He easily set a career high in strikeouts, finishing at exactly 300.  (As an aside, I was in the park for his 300th strikeout.  It was a pretty cool moment in an otherwise extremely disappointing Nationals season.)  He is the sixth different pitcher to record a 300 strikeout season in DTBL history.  Among qualified pitchers, his 2.53 ERA ranked seventh and his 0.911 WHP was third best.  Three other pitchers were ahead of his 18 wins.  In addition to PAR and strikeouts, he also led the league in innings pitched with 220 2/3. The Kings acquired Scherzer in a trade with the Jackalope back in 2010.  That trade continues to pay dividends for the Kings, who have now won three championships with Scherzer on the roster.  This is the second time that he has won both a DTBL Championship and the Cy Young award in the same season, repeating what he accomplished in 2016.  The Kings won the title this year mainly on the strength of three players:  Scherzer, Mookie Betts and Justin Verlander.  While Scherzer faced stiff competition for this league-wide award, you could make a decent case that he wasn't even the best pitcher on the Kings staff as his and Verlander's numbers were nearly identical across the board.  Scherzer won a couple more games and had ten more strikeouts, but Verlander had the slight edge in ERA and WHIP.  They combined for 27.0 Pitching PAR, which was an incredible 75% of the team's total Pitching PAR of 36.1.  Needless to say, the Kings would not have been champions without either of these guys. As expected, the Cy Young vote was kind of all over the place as there were a whole bunch of players who made compelling cases.  Scherzer did win by a decent margin, but was far from unanimous.  He received seven first place votes, two seconds and a third for a point total of 89.  He was the only pitcher to appear on all ten ballots.  Finishing second was Cougars lefty, and 2018 DTBL Rookie of the Year, Blake Snell.  Snell received nine votes, including two firsts and two seconds, for 53 points.  The league's win leader had quite a rookie campaign and now adds a second place finish for the Cy Young to his resume.  Verlander finished right behind Snell.  He was the third and final player to receive a first place vote (one) and had a pair of second place votes as well.  Like Snell, he appeared on nine of ten ballots and totaled 42 points.  Coming in fourth was the most interesting case of the year, Darkhorses ace Jacob deGrom.  I think most people would agree that deGrom was the best pitcher in baseball this season, compiling a ridiculous 1.70 ERA, which was the fourth best mark in league history.  But wins do matter in fantasy baseball and he only had 10 of them.  He received a second place vote and racked up 32 points.  Those four were well ahead of the rest, but several other pitchers received strong consideration as well.  Moonshiners reliever Edwin Diaz only received three votes, but two of them were second place nods, so he finished fifth in the voting with 15 points.  Diaz appeared to be well on his way to breaking the league's single season save record.  But his pace slowed a bit down the stretch and he finished with 57 saves, falling five short of Francisco Rodriguez's total ten years ago.  57 did put him in the second spot on the single season saves list though. Click here to view the full voting results. On Tuesday, I plan to announce the third and final award:  Most Valuable Player.  Like the Cy Young, there appear to be plenty of strong contenders for MVP, so expect to see a similar scattering of votes.  Until then, enjoy the rest of your weekend.

  • Snell Snags Rookie Honor

    Embed from Getty Images 2018 was a strong year for first year DTBL pitchers, particularly ones that were not near the top of most teams' draft lists.  But one stood out among the rest.  Blake Snell overcame his modest draft stock and his status on a MLB team that was at the forefront of "bullpenning" to become a front line starting pitcher.  The Rays lefty won the American League Cy Young award earlier this week and will have a shot at winning that same award in the DTBL as well.  The Cougars managed to turn their tenth round draft pick into the top rookie in the league this season.  By unanimous decision, Blake Snell is the 2018 DTBL Rookie of the Year. Snell's 2018 campaign is on the short list of greatest rookie pitching campaigns in DTBL history.  He led the entire league with 21 wins, trailed only Jacob deGrom in ERA (1.89) and finished in the top five in WHIP (0.974) as well.  He also struck out 221 hitters in just 180 2/3 innings pitched.  He posted a 12.6 PAR, ranking third among all pitchers and just 1.4 points behind the league leader.  The only past rookie with very similar numbers across the board was Jake Arrieta who won both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young in 2015.  But Arrieta was a 29 year old veteran at that time.  Snell is just 25 and figures to have a lot more peak seasons ahead of him.  Will Snell repeat Arrieta's feat of the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young double?  Stay tuned.  He has a chance. The Cougars absolutely stole Snell in the 10th round of this year's draft.  97 players, including 22 starting pitchers, were selected ahead of Snell.  This is the second straight year that the Rookie of the Year award has gone to a player overlooked by almost everybody.  Aaron Judge won the award after going undrafted a year ago.  The Cougars now have two of the past three winners of this award, joining Kris Bryant who took home the honor in 2016.  Snell was easily their best pitcher this season, helping make up for disappointing and injury riddled seasons from their previous staff aces Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer.  If Bumgarner can return to form next year, the Cougars could have a very strong top of the rotation with Bumgarner, Snell and another nice draft pick, sixth rounder Jameson Taillon. While this was a pretty strong rookie class, particularly in the pitching ranks, Snell was the easy choice for this award.  He received all ten first place votes, the third unanimous winner of the award in the past four years.  Coming in second was a player who was actually playing for his second DTBL team, Jackalope fireballer Luis Severino.  Severino was draft by the Naturals back in 2016, but did not make an appearance on their major league roster, preserving his rookie eligibility.  He had a dominant season, striking out 220 with 19 wins, which also rank quite highly on the all-time rookie lists.  But the overall numbers weren't quite at Snell's level.  Severino appeared on all ten ballots, receiving six second place votes to finish with 60 points.  Just behind him was the best rookie hitter, Choppers second baseman Whit Merrifield.  Merrifield was picked right after Severino in the draft as well, fourth overall.  He posted a somewhat quiet 6.8 PAR season on the strength of a .304 average and a league leading 45 steals.  Merrifield was the third and final player to appear on all ten ballots, including four second place votes for a point total of 52.  There was a pretty big drop-off in the voting after those three.  Coming next, in a tie for fourth place were Naturals pitcher Mike Clevinger and Mavericks second baseman Ozzie Albies.  Clevinger was actually drafted even later than Snell, in the eleventh round.  He joined his Indians teammate Carlos Carrasco as the Naturals best pitchers this season.  Meanwhile, Albies turned in a nice rookie campaign, rewarding the Mavericks for selecting him with the last pick of the first round.  Clevinger and Albies each received a single third place vote on their way to compiling 12 total points. Click here to view the full voting results. The tentative schedule for the announcements of the other two awards are Sunday for Cy Young and next Tuesday for Most Valuable Player.  Neither of those awards figure to be as lopsided in the voting as this one was, so be sure to check out those results.  I know there were a few technical glitches in the voting this year, so I apologize for that.  Hopefully cleaning up the voting process will be one of many enhancements I make this offseason.