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  • PAR Review: 2010-2014

    With the DTBL Draft scheduled to begin later this week, teams are no doubt planning for their future.  But before we go there, I’d  like to take a moment to step back in time.  One of my projects for this winter has been to retroactively calculate PAR stats for previous seasons.  At a minimum, my goal was to complete the five most recent seasons to give me a decent sample size to analyze the numbers and provide a basis for something else I will be tackling down the road.  So that is exactly what I did.  PAR numbers have been calculated for all DTBL players dating back to the 2010 season.  Eventually, I hope to get this completed all the way back to the beginning of the league, but it will be a slow process.  But for now, I’d like to take a closer look at the five years worth of data I have compiled, draw some conclusions from the data and analyze how these numbers match up with the way league members valued players each year in the DTBL Awards votes.  This will also be a bit of a look at league trends over this five year period.

    First, I don’t want to assume you all remember every last detail about the Points Above Replacement statistic I introduced last summer.  If you need a PAR primer, I highly recommend skimming through my introductory article.  In an incredibly brief summary, the purpose of PAR is to determine a player’s value in terms of the number of points he contributes to his team in the standings over a replacement level player.  In theory, a player with a 5.0 PAR means that the team earned approximately five more points in the standings than they would have if they had used a replacement level player to fill that roster spot instead.

    Now it’s time to look at the results at a macro level.  To assist with this, I quickly put together a new page which contains year-by-year league-wide totals in all statistical categories, including PAR.  For now, that single table is the only thing on the page, but eventually I envision adding a lot more data and making it sort of a league almanac.  Here it is.  You may want to open that page in a new tab because I will be referencing it a bunch.  For now, you can reach the page on the league site by clicking on the “Archives” header.  I may move it elsewhere later though.

    Since the idea behind the “replacement level” setting for PAR was a team full of players that would finish in last place in each category, I would expect the total PAR earned by every player in the league during the season to be approximately 450.  That’s 45 points to be gained by nine non-last place finishing teams in each of the 10 categories.  As you can see in that table I just linked, the league’s total PAR in the five years I have computed so far was very close to the expected 450 in the 2010-12 seasons, but has fallen well short each of the last two years.  But when you break it out into batting PAR and pitching PAR, the results are not very close to the expected 225 in most cases.  In most years, batters have fallen well short of the expected total while pitchers have far exceeded it.  But I think there is a very logical explanation for this, and overall, I am pleased with the results so far.  Here’s why:

    As I mentioned in the initial PAR article, I decided to use a span of five years to set the replacement level baseline and determine the values needed to earn points in each category.  I did this because I didn’t want huge fluctuations in the numbers used to compute PAR from one year to the next.  So a player who puts up identical numbers in consecutive years should have more or less the same PAR.  But the downside to using a five year sample is that drastic shifts in league-wide stat totals throws the baseline out of whack.  And that’s exactly what has happened in this league for over a decade now.  Offensive numbers have been on a steady decline since the heart of the steroid era and pitching numbers have drastically improved.  Looking at that table again, you will see that with the exception of 2012, the league batting average and ERA have gone down every season since 2006.  The last two years, in particular, have seen incredible drops in offensive production.  2014 was the first season since this league expanded to 10 teams in 1998 that DTBL players failed to accumulate 1000 runs scored.  The league ERA and WHIP were at all time lows, by a fairly comfortable margin.

    Because these trends have been consistently heading in one direction over the five years I’ve examined so far (really, it’s nine years since the ’10 PAR calculations include numbers dating back to ’06), the season in question was always being compared to a sample set of five years with higher offensive output and less impressive pitching stats.  Therefore, batters failing to accumulate a league-wide total of 225 PAR is to be expected.  The extent to which hitters have failed to reach 225 PAR has exceeded the amount in which pitchers have gone past that number in most seasons.  This is because pitching PAR contains two stats that have been extremely consistent from year-to-year and aren’t particularly affected by the lack of offense in recent years:  wins and saves.  So while hitters have at least four categories that have seen tumbling totals (AVG, HR, RBI, R), the effect on pitching stats has been mostly limited to three categories (ERA, WHIP, K).

    Once I finally start to compute PAR in seasons that didn’t have a drastic change in league totals compared to the previous five seasons, we should start to see these numbers come much closer to the expected values.  Actually, we already have one such season in 2012.  2012 was actually a slightly better year for hitters than the previous two seasons and was right in line with the five year averages from ’08-’12.  So it is encouraging to see that the batting and pitching PAR totals were both right around 225 that year.  In conclusion from looking at the league PAR totals, the numbers may seem out of whack and pitchers are certainly earning points at a higher rate than hitters, but I do not think this negates the value of the stat.  You just need to keep these things in mind when determining how you personally value each player.

    Now I’d like to take a look at the top PAR earning batters and pitchers in each of the five seasons and see how those players finished in the DTBL MVP and Cy Young votes in the corresponding season.  The reason why I think this is something worth looking at is to see how the value league members have placed on particular players has matched up with the value determined by PAR.

    2014

    PAR rank Batter MVP finish Pitcher CY finish
    1st Mike Trout 1st Clayton Kershaw 1st
    2nd Jose Altuve 4th Johnny Cueto 2nd
    3rd Michael Brantley 5th Felix Hernandez 3rd
    4th Giancarlo Stanton 2nd Corey Kluber 4th
    5th Jose Bautista 7th Adam Wainwright 5th(t)

    2014 was the first season in which voters actually had PAR numbers to reference if they were so inclined. Not surprisingly, the PAR numbers back up the voters, especially for Cy Young. Victor Martinez finished 3rd in the MVP vote despite finishing 6th in PAR, but this is mainly due to his position value. But that’s a whole different topic for another time. It appears Jose Altuve was slightly undervalued by voters, at least if PAR is to be trusted, since he was just barely behind Trout in PAR.

    2013

    PAR rank Batter MVP finish Pitcher CY finish
    1st Miguel Cabrera 1st Clayton Kershaw 1st
    2nd Chris Davis 2nd Max Scherzer 2nd
    3rd Mike Trout 4th Adam Wainwright 4th
    4th Paul Goldschmidt 3rd Yu Darvish 3rd
    5th Adam Jones 5th Cliff Lee 6th

    The ’12-’13 seasons featured hotly contested debates on Miguel Cabrera vs. Mike Trout for AL MVP. It was a little more clear cut in this league though, at least in ’13, with Cabrera having the superior fantasy stats. It’s also interesting to see how close Kershaw and Scherzer were to each other in both PAR and the Cy Young vote. The result was the same in each, with a slight edge to Kershaw. A little sad to see those 4th and 5th place names on the pitching side in light of their current arm injuries.

    2012

    PAR rank Batter MVP finish Pitcher CY finish
    1st Mike Trout 2nd Justin Verlander 2nd
    2nd Ryan Braun 3rd David Price 1st
    3rd Miguel Cabrera 1st Clayton Kershaw 3rd
    4th Josh Hamilton 4th Gio Gonzalez 4th
    5th Andrew McCutchen 5th Matt Cain 6th(t)

    Now this is where things get interesting. PAR disagrees with both the MVP and Cy Young selections from ’12. I wouldn’t classify either as egregious errors by the voters though. Cabrera and Price both helped lead the Naturals to the championship that season, so they probably earned a slight edge over Trout, Braun and Verlander in the minds of some for that reason alone. Also, the PAR differences were minimal anyway. Having said that, Trout’s 10.8 PAR is the highest single season number we’ve seen for a batter in the five years I’ve calculated so far, yet he didn’t win the MVP. I should note that Craig Kimbrel finished 5th in the Cy Young vote in both ’12 and ’13, but relief pitchers have almost no chance of finishing near the leaders in pitching PAR. Make of that what you wish.

    2011

    PAR rank Batter MVP finish Pitcher CY finish
    1st Matt Kemp 1st Justin Verlander 1st
    2nd Jacoby Ellsbury 3rd Clayton Kershaw 2nd
    3rd Ryan Braun 2nd Roy Halladay 3rd
    4th Curtis Granderson 4th Cliff Lee 4th
    5th Jose Bautista 6th Jered Weaver 5th

    This is another season where the PAR rankings closely match the award voting results. Remember when Matt Kemp was the best player in baseball? It was only four years ago! Meanwhile, Verlander was a unanimous Cy Young selection in ’11 and also accumulated the highest PAR I have calculated to date (16.3), barely edging out Kershaw’s ’14 campaign.

    2010

    PAR rank Batter MVP finish Pitcher CY finish
    1st Carlos Gonzalez 2nd Roy Halladay 1st
    2nd Albert Pujols 1st Adam Wainwright 2nd
    3rd Joey Votto 4th Felix Hernandez 3rd
    4th Miguel Cabrera 3rd Ubaldo Jimenez 5th
    5th Carl Crawford 7th C.C. Sabathia 4th

    Finally, 2010 saw Pujols edge out CarGo for the MVP award despite finishing slightly behind him in PAR. But that was an extremely tight MVP vote as well with Pujols winning despite only receiving three first place votes. Less than a point separated the two in PAR. On the pitching side, the two lists were nearly identical.

    To me, all of the above points out that PAR is a pretty good representation of the value most league members have placed on players in recent years and helps indicate that no player has been clearly snubbed from a post-season award either.  I hope to do more analysis like this as I continue to compute PAR values from previous seasons.

    With the draft starting this week, you may be contemplating whether or not you are going to consider PAR when making your selections.  Let me offer a little unsolicited advice and provide some guidance for you if you are going to go that route.  If you are already using a set of stat projections to assist you with your drafting process, it may be worthwhile to calculate a player’s projected PAR too.  This could be particularly useful if you are debating between two players with completely different skill sets.  However, you should also consider position scarcity and not necessarily draft the player capable of posting the highest PAR.  2014 PAR calculations for all draft eligible players can be found on the “Free Agents” page.  But I want to give you a huge heads up that these numbers are close to meaningless for players who were not active for the full season last year.  The PAR calculation assumes they played the full season, which is probably not the case for a majority of the players.  Same goes for the PAR numbers you see on the individual team pages right now.

    In case you are interested in calculating 2015 projected PAR for players, I have pasted the formulas below for both batters and pitchers.  These are the numbers that were used to compute the ’14 PAR totals and will be used during this season as well.  The only difference is these formulas are assuming full season stats.  So if your projected numbers aren’t full season, the PAR is probably going to be a little low.  Anyway, you can plug this formula into Excel, and replace the stat names with the projected values you wish to use.

    Batting PAR:

    =((((H+1775)/(AB+6912))-0.2567)/0.0028) + ((HR-15.05)/9.67) + ((RBI-63.25)/24.48) + ((R-65.19)/24.34) + ((SB-7.68)/9.48)

    Pitching PAR:

    =((((ER+495.13)*9/(IP+1140.0))-3.909)/-0.095) + ((((BB+H+1469.73)/(IP+1140.0))-1.2893)/-0.0174) + ((W-7.57)/2.75) + ((SV-5.56)/9.57) + ((K-114.47)/31.91)

    Of course, these formulas aren’t very useful without numbers to plug into them.  I’m not going to recommend any particular projection set though because I think it is best to leave that up to you to decide.  It wouldn’t be much fun if we were all reading from the same sheet of music.  However, I will recommend checking out FanGraphs, where they have several sets of 2015 stat projections available.

    Happy drafting!

  • Trout Finally Gets MVP Nod


    2014 was probably the worst year of Mike Trout’s three year DTBL career. His batting average dipped below .300 for the first time and he stole fewer than half as many bases as he had in each of his first two seasons. That’s not to suggest this wasn’t a great season for the Mavericks’ young phenom. He was still an elite player in every sense of the word. But I think I can safely say he is the first player to ever win his first MVP award in the worst season of his career to date (not counting rookies). It definitely hasn’t happened in this league. Mike Trout is the 2014 DTBL Most Valuable Player.

    Trout remains baseball’s best total package. His combination of hitting for average and power, base running, speed and fielding ability is unmatched. But prior to this year, he had been unable to grab the MVP award in the DTBL or the American League, mostly because of a guy named Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera understandably won the MVP award in this league the previous two years because Trout’s main prowess over him, his defensive ability, plays no role in fantasy baseball. But Cabrera didn’t have quite the same success at the plate this year, leaving the door open for Trout and others.

    Trout led the DTBL in batting PAR (7.91) and runs scored (115). His 36 home runs and 111 RBI were career highs and ranked third and second respectively in the league this year. It was batting average (.287) and stolen bases (16) where he took a bit of a step backwards from previous seasons, but even those numbers are well above league average. He was easily the Mavericks best offensive player again this year, leading them in AVG, HR, RBI and R. He was largely responsible for keeping the Mavericks offense among the best in the league on their way to a slightly disappointing third place finish. Yet the Mavericks can now claim the league’s best hitter and pitcher for 2014 with Trout joining Clayton Kershaw as award winners.

    Ever since the Mavericks selected Trout with their second round pick in 2012, he has proven to be one of the biggest steals in DTBL Draft history. In his brief career, he has put up gaudy numbers: .313 with 93 home runs, 97 stolen bases, 291 runs batted in and 352 runs scored in just three seasons. He has now finished in the top four of the MVP vote in each of his seasons. And this is the second award he has won, along with the unanimous selection as Rookie of the Year in 2012. He is also only 23 years old, so it would be very surprising if he wasn’t in the running for this award many, many times down the road. He and Kershaw figure to keep the Mavericks in the title hunt pretty much every year for the foreseeable future.

    It wasn’t quite a unanimous selection of Trout for MVP. He received nine of ten first place votes for a total of 97 points. Since I leave it up to each of you as to whether or not you wish to have your votes made public, I’m not going to say who didn’t have Trout #1, except I’ll give you a pretty big hint by saying it’s probably the last person you would have guessed. Although Trout wasn’t unanimous, his margin of victory was quite large. The next four closest competitors were more than 60 points behind, but within six points of each other. The Jackalope’s suddenly filthy-rich Giancarlo Stanton came in second place with 35 points despite only receiving one second place vote. The Naturals’ Victor Martinez received the lone first place vote that didn’t go to Trout, perhaps due to his value over every other catcher in the league. V-Mart was left off three ballots and finished with 34 points. The player who finished just behind Trout in batting PAR, Demigods second baseman Jose Altuve, only received a pair of second place votes and was left off four ballots, causing him to finish fourth with 32 points. Finally, the Cougars break-out star, outfielder Michael Brantley, rounded out the top five with 29 points, also receiving a pair of second place votes. Besides Trout, the voting was really all over the place. Even one player who didn’t finish in the top five, Miguel Cabrera, received a second place vote. Trout was the only player who appeared on all ten ballots.

    Click here to see the full Most Valuable Player award voting results.

    Usually, this MVP article is my last article of the year. But that’s not the plan this year. I’m going to start working on updating PAR numbers for previous seasons and will probably write about some of my findings along the way, particularly if I see the need to adjust my formulas. I would also like to chronicle the league PAR totals for each year and maybe take a look at how well the MVP and Cy Young voting meshed with the PAR results in past years. In addition to that, I also have other site enhancements planned for this winter. So be sure to check back on occasion. But until next time, have a great winter!

  • Kershaw Wins Cy Young Again


    2014 was the best year for pitchers in the DTBL’s 22 season history. The total league ERA of 3.31 was the lowest mark ever, easily besting the 3.39 combined ERA of 2011. So there was no shortage of great pitching in the league. Yet one player easily stood out among the rest. Despite hitting the disabled list following his first outing of the year, Clayton Kershaw returned as good as new and simply dominated for the next five months. Following a 2013 season in which Kershaw narrowly won the Cy Young award over Max Scherzer, he left no doubt who the winner would be this year. Mavericks ace Clayton Kershaw is the unanimous selection for the 2014 DTBL Cy Young award.

    This one really was a no-brainer.  Kershaw had one of the best seasons in league history.  He easily led the league in ERA and WHIP and also led the way with 20 wins.  His 1.77 ERA was the fourth lowest mark ever in the DTBL, even beating his minuscule 1.83 ERA from last year.  His 0.857 WHIP was the third best ever.  Only two DTBL pitchers have put up lower ERA and WHIP numbers in a single season:  Greg Maddux in 1995 and Pedro Martinez in 2000, which happen to be the first two players/years mentioned whenever people discuss the best pitcher seasons of the past quarter century.  More on Kershaw’s place in history with Maddux and Martinez in just a bit.  His early season injury prevented him from having a realistic shot at leading the league in all four starting pitcher categories, but his 239 strikeouts put him on the league leaderboard as well.

    This was Kershaw’s best season to date.  And that is saying something considering he has been nothing short of remarkable almost since the day he was drafted by the Mavericks in the sixth round in 2009.  Since his second season, he has never had an ERA over 3.00 or a WHIP over 1.200, numbers that would be a career bests for most pitchers.  Still only 26 years old, he already has 89 career wins with a 2.35 ERA, 1.018 WHIP and 1,296 strikeouts.  He easily holds the DTBL career records in ERA and WHIP among starting pitchers.  The Mavericks pitching staff wasn’t nearly as dominant as it was a year ago, but Kershaw obviously wasn’t to blame.  He was their best pitcher, as he has been pretty much throughout the entirety of his career.

    The scary thing is, Kershaw seems to keep getting better.  He has now finished in the top three of the Cy Young vote four years in a row.  But the last two years have been truly remarkable.  He joins Maddux and Martinez as clear cut leaders in terms of best back-to-back seasons for pitchers in the DTBL.  Maddux’s 1994 and 1995 seasons featured the two lowest ERAs ever.  Martinez wasn’t far off with his 1999 and 2000 campaigns.  And now Kershaw in 2013 and 2014.  It is too early to judge Kershaw’s ultimate place in history.  But it won’t be long before the conversation about pitching greats begins with those three…. and then moves on to everybody else.

    As mentioned, Kershaw was a unanimous selection for the Cy Young award.  It wasn’t due to a lack of solid competition though.  The Demigods’ Johnny Cueto rode a career year to a distant second place finish with 56 points, receiving half of the second place votes.  Jackalope ace Felix Hernandez received the other half of those second place votes and finished just one point behind Cueto.  The difference wound up being that Hernandez did not appear on one of the ballots.  Yesterday’s Rookie of the Year winner, Demigods’ Corey Kluber came in fourth place with 17 points.  It is interesting that Hernandez beat Kluber so easily after Kluber nabbed the AL Cy Young from King Felix.  But keep in mind that Kluber was in the minors for the Demigods for a few weeks in April.  There was a three way tie for fifth place, including the champion Naturals’ ace David Price and a pair of Cougars hurlers:  Adam Wainwright and post-season hero Madison Bumgarner.  All three received ten points.

    Click here to view the full Cy Young voting results.

    The big one will have to wait until next week.  I intend to announce the MVP winner on Monday evening.  Kershaw probably would have been a leading candidate for that one too, except we reserve that award for hitters in this league.  So who will it be?  Check back on Monday to find out!

  • Kluber Nabs Rookie of the Year


    Just a couple hours after winning the AL Cy Young award in a bit of an upset, Corey Kluber has his name attached to another honor.  The first year DTBL pitcher was, hands-down, the steal of this year’s draft.  Picked in the tenth round to provide some depth to a very strong Demigods rotation, Kluber wound up playing a leading role for a staff that put up some of the best numbers in league history.  His performance propelled him to the top of a very deep rookie class.  Corey Kluber is the 2014 DTBL Rookie of the Year.

    On a team with Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, Doug Fister and first round draft pick Jose Fernandez, Kluber had to wait his turn to become a fixture in the Demigods’ rotation.  He spent most of April in a minor league slot.  But after being activated in late April, he never looked back.  Despite not having the opportunity to put up a full season of stats, his numbers were still quite impressive.  He won 16 games with a 2.40 ERA, 1.089 WHIP and 241 strikeouts for the Demigods.  On most teams, those stats would have made him the obvious staff ace.  But he was slightly bested by Cueto in all four categories.  However, he easily led all DTBL rookies in wins, ERA and strikeouts and was second in WHIP.  His 11.5 pitching PAR was best among rookies as well and fourth among all pitchers.  His brief stint in the minors will probably keep him from being a serious contender for the DTBL Cy Young award, but he should receive plenty of consideration there as well.  Not bad for a tenth round pick.

    The Demigods seemed to have their rotation set well before Kluber was drafted.  Jose Fernandez was chosen with the third pick in the draft and was supposed to be the final piece in their loaded rotation.  But once Fernandez succumbed to Tommy John surgery in May, Kluber’s presence became absolutely essential.  Even without the young phenom Fernandez, the Demigods put together one of the best pitching seasons in league history.  Unfortunately for them, it wasn’t quite enough to beat out the Naturals for their first league title.  But Kluber played a key role in their best season ever and now appears to be an important piece of the puzzle moving forward as well.

    As mentioned, this was a pretty strong rookie class overall, especially among later round picks.  There were actually quite a few first round busts, at least for the 2014 season.  But some of the guys picked much later picked up the slack.  The Rookie of the Year voting was competitive, but Kluber won by a fairly comfortable margin.  He received seven first place and three second place votes for a total of 91 points.  His main competition for this award wound up being another draft steal, Naturals second baseman Anthony Rendon.  Rendon was a sixth round pick and rewarded the Naturals with a rookie leading 5.2 batting PAR.  He received the other three first place votes and was the only player besides Kluber to appear on all ten ballots.  He accumulated 75 points in finishing second.  In third place was Moonshiners third baseman Josh Donaldson.  Considered the favorite for this award through much of the season, Donaldson was clearly the most productive of this year’s first round picks.  He received 34 points.  Finishing fourth was the only other rookie pitcher who came anywhere near Kluber’s numbers, Darkhorses pitcher Julio Teheran, who received 30 points.  There was a sizable gap between those four and the rest of the pack.  But rounding out the top five were a pair of Athletics pitchers who tied for that spot with 10 points.  Jackalope youngster Sonny Gray and Kings closer Sean Doolittle were key contributors to their respective squads.

    Click here to view the full Rookie of the Year voting results.

    My plan is to announce the Cy Young award winner tomorrow (Thursday) evening with the MVP announcement coming early next week.  So be sure to check back soon for those results.

  • The Forgettable Five


    With two teams breaking point records at the top of the standings, one could assume that records in futility may have been in danger as well. That wasn’t exactly the case for any one team in the 2014 DTBL season, but collectively, five teams did manage to make some history. It was a season to forget for the Kings, Moonshiners, Darkhorses, Gators and Cougars.

    Those five teams were essentially out of the race before the All-Star break. The only real question was which bottom half position would each team wind up in. These five were separated by just a handful of points almost the entire season and frequently shuffled standings places. In the end, none came close to breaking any low water mark records. All five finished with point totals between 32 and 43. But the distance they were behind the champion Naturals is where records were broken.

    It is common for one or two teams to finish miles behind the champions. But five teams is unheard of. The sixth place Kings finished an astonishing 46 points behind the Naturals. In the league’s history, never have more than three teams finished that far out of first place. And the only times when three teams did it (1998 and 2000) were expansion years where two of the bottom three were expansion teams and the third bottom-feeder was a team that folded following that season. To have five teams finish so far out of the hunt this year is really quite amazing.

    The biggest disappointment of the bottom five has to be the Kings. They just barely avoided the worst finish ever for a defending champion, coming in one spot higher than the 2011 Darkhorses. However, a sixth place finish for a team that was considered a favorite coming into the year is pretty embarrassing, particularly when you look at just how far they were from being a contender. It was sort of a Murphy’s Law season for the Kings with everything imaginable going wrong. They were absolutely decimated by injuries, particularly early in the year. At one point in May, literally half of the players who were on their Opening Day roster were either on the disabled list or nursing some sort of injury. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Even the healthy players failed to meet the most modest of expectations. In one year, the Kings have fallen from a juggernaut squad with hopes of establishing a new dynasty to a team full of washed up players with a seemingly bleak future. Not one Kings player figures to receive strong consideration for the post-season awards. Only Max Scherzer, Ian Desmond, Jonathen LuCroy and a couple relief pitchers could be considered bright spots.

    Expectations weren’t as high for the Moonshiners, but 2014 will still go down as a disappointing season for them too. Their problem entering the season appeared to be a lack of superstar players who could carry the squad in multiple categories. That remains their main weakness today. No Moonshiners appeared in the top ten in batting or pitching PAR. The early season loss of Prince Fielder was a dagger and David Wright was a disappointment all year. Two of their better offensive players were a pair of rookies: Josh Donaldson and Brian Dozier. Donaldson was a pleasant surprise out of a first round draft class which included a whole bunch of busts. Jared Weaver led the pitching staff with 18 wins, but didn’t get much help from anyone else in the rotation. Next year, they will try once again to acquire top level players to push them back into contender status.

    The Darkhorses offense was respectable, but their pitching staff really let them down, leading to an eighth place finish. Veterans Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury were joined by younger players like Todd Frazier and Christian Yelich to form a pretty decent offense. But they are still waiting to get a full, healthy, superstar season out of Bryce Harper. And this year’s first round pick, Xander Bogaerts was a huge disappointment this year. They did strike gold with their second round pick though. Julio Teheran was their best pitcher this season. James Shields and Lance Lynn were solid too. The rest of the starters were not and the bullpen finished dead last in saves. Since completing their four-peat in 2010, the Darkhorses have now finished in the bottom half of the standings four years in a row. But they probably have a better stable of young players than any of the other four teams covered in this article. Also worth noting, the Demigods finished in this eighth place slot just a year ago. Perhaps next year the Darkhorses will make a similar leap.

    The Gators have this ninth place thing figured out. For the fourth consecutive year, they finished in that same dreaded spot.  Part of their problem was a very disappointing DTBL rookie campaign for second overall draft choice Wil Myers who struggled through an injury plagued and ineffective season.  Also, losing their longtime ace C.C. Sabathia for most of the season was a huge blow considering how heavily they have relied on him to carry their pitching staff in the past.  On a more positive note, Nelson Cruz bounced back from his PED suspension in a big way, leading the league with 40 home runs.  Scott Kazmir and Alex Wood were shrewd mid/late round draft picks who were solid, but unable to completely fill the void left by Sabathia.  The bullpen was once again a team strength, although it took a bit of a blow towards the end of the season when Rafael Soriano and even Koji Uehara lost their closer roles.  One of these years, the Gators will put it together and avoid another ninth place finish.  Maybe next year.

    This was an extremely disappointing season for the Cougars coming off a very solid fifth place finish in 2013.  Their last place finish was very surprising, especially for a team with such a solid pitching staff.  The offense was not solid though.  In fact, it couldn’t have been much worse.  They finished dead last in all five offensive categories, earning the minimum five batting points.  They are the second team in league history to earn the minimum batting points, joining the 1997 Tidal Wave.  The strange thing is that they actually had one of the best offensive players in the league as Michael Brantley burst into superstar status with his .327, 20 HR, 23 SB season.  Alexei Ramirez and Denard Span were decent.  The rest of their hitters really struggled, led by last year’s team MVP Chris Davis.  Davis hit an awful .193 before having his season popped short due to a drug suspension.  The pitching staff was actually quite good though.  Adam Wainwright won 20 games and was among the league leaders in ERA (2.38) and WHIP (1.03) too.  Madison Bumgarner, before cementing his legacy as a post-season hero, had another great regular season as well.  The bullpen was pretty good too.  Even a slight improvement to the offense next year to complment this very talented pitching staff should make this last place finish a distant memory a year from now.

    We are well into awards season now with MLB announcing winners of some of the lesser awards this week.  The big ones will come next week.  So we better get our own award voting done soon too.  The awards ballot is now available on the main page.  Please take some time this weekend to complete your ballot.  I will begin announcing the winners next week.

  • Demigods Fall Just Short

    The DTBL expanded to ten teams in 1998, making 2014 the 17th season with 550 total points distributed among the 10 teams. In those 17 seasons, only three teams have managed to accumulate more than 86 points. So it would stand to reason that those three teams were almost certainly all league champions. That is not the case. The 2014 Demigods finished with the third most points in league history with 86.5, and yet found themselves 2 1/2 points behind the league champion Naturals. It was a painful final result for a franchise who easily had their best season ever, but fell a little short of their first league championship.

    Before I go any further, I think it is important to point out that a team’s point total in any given season doesn’t paint the complete picture of how strong that team actually was. Since the total number of league-wide points is the same every year, team totals often say as much about the rest of the league as the team itself. This year, the Naturals and Demigods clearly benefited from being the only two particularly strong teams in the league. There were three other mediocre squads and five teams that were pretty terrible. While a decent case could be made for the Naturals and Demigods as two of the all time great teams, it is also worth mentioning that they didn’t have a lot of competition. But enough raining on the Naturals and Demigods parade. This second season recap article will focus on the Demigods and the three other teams who didn’t win the title, but didn’t completely tank either (Mavericks, Choppers, Jackalope).

    The Demigods were definitely a sleeper to make a run at the title this year due to a revamped pitching staff and a solid roster, top to bottom. They did not disappoint in that respect. They made the incredible leap from the league’s worst pitching staff in 2013 (in terms of pitching points earned) to the best in 2014. They led the league in ERA, wins and strikeouts, finished second in WHIP and fifth in saves, earning a spot among the best pitching staffs this league has ever seen. The Demigods broke the single season strikeout record, passing the ’07 Mavericks by 41 whiffs. Their 2.70 ERA is only bested by last year’s Mavericks. And their 1.118 WHIP was the third lowest mark ever behind the ’13 Mavericks and this year’s Naturals. They did all of that despite losing the guy who was supposed to be the staff ace, Jose Fernandez, to Tommy John surgery in early May. Johnny Cueto had the kind of season that would make anyone not named Clayton Kershaw jealous, with 20 wins, 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 242 strikeouts, all among the league leaders. Tenth round pick Corey Kluber turned out to be the steal of the draft and a strong Rookie of the Year candidate (16 W, 2.40 ERA, 241 K’s). Yu Darvish fought through injuries, but still had a pretty good year. Cole Hamels and Doug Fister were their usual solid selves. That’s six starting pitchers who you would think would be sure keepers heading into next year, opening up some interesting possibilities for this team moving forward.

    The offense wasn’t quite as strong for the Demigods, but still ranked second in the league with 41.5 points. Jose Altuve was the breakout star of the year and a strong MVP candidate. He led the league in batting average (.341) and steals (56). Carlos Gomez was the other offensive star, with his second straight 20/30 season (23 HR, 32 SB). It was a mildly disappointing season for some of their other stars which may have ultimately cost them the title, particularly Evan Longoria and Joe Mauer. But this team really does have all the pieces in place to be a contender again next year.

    Although the Demigods were the only team who gave the Naturals a real run for their money, three other teams can look back at 2014 as something other than a complete failure. The Mavericks fell well short of their lofty expectations, but 69.5 points would have put them in the title race most years. The Choppers never were able to make a serious run at the top of the standings, but did have their second straight solid year while finishing fourth. Finally, the Jackalope bounced back from a horrific last place finish in 2013 to return to the top half of the standings this year.

    The Mavericks have been one of the league’s best teams for quite some time, but it has now been eight years since their last championship. Expectations were extremely high entering this year, despite knowing they would have to go at it without Matt Harvey. So a distant third place finish is slightly disappointing. However, they are very well positioned to make a more serious run next year. As for 2014, Mike Trout, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Jones helped lead an offense that actually outperformed their ’13 unit. It was pitching where they took a big step back from their record setting numbers a year ago. Of course, Clayton Kershaw was not to blame in any way, shape or form. He once again compiled one of the best pitching seasons in league history, leading the league in ERA (1.77), WHIP (0.857) and wins (21) despite missing about a month due to injury. His ERA and WHIP ranked as the fourth and third best DTBL single season marks, respectively. Stephen Strasburg had a solid year, but the rest of the rotation was a bit of a disappointment. It will be interesting to see if they are able to bounce back to ’13 form with the return of Harvey next year. They have a large stable of interesting young players along with extra early draft picks in 2015.

    The Choppers put together their second solid season in a row, but may have been slightly disappointed in being unable to mount a serious charge for the title down the stretch. In the end, they just didn’t get enough out of their second tier of players to match up with the Naturals and Demigods. The offense was led by Jose Bautista, who had his best season since 2011. He joined Trout as the only two players to record 35/100/100 seasons (35 HR, 103 RBI, 101 R), leading the Choppers in all three categories. Anthony Rizzo had a breakout season as well, recording 32 homers. A few other players had solid years too, like Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth and Alex Gordon. But in the end, it wasn’t quite enough. The lack of standouts was even more pronounced on the pitching mound. Chris Sale, Jon Lester and Craig Kimbrel were outstanding. Outside of those three though, they lacked the pitching depth of the three teams who finished ahead of them. On the whole though, this was a good year for the Choppers. They easily soared past the pre-season projection of eighth place. With two solid finishes in a row, the Choppers have pushed their lean years well behind them.

    It was a weird season for the Jackalope. After last year’s disaster, things almost certainly had to improve for this team that was a serious title contender just two years ago. So a jump from tenth to fifth was a huge step in the right direction. However, it ended on a sour note with several of their stars suffering season ending injuries. The second half losses of Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton sank any hopes of finishing the season on a strong note. But prior to that injury, what a season it was for Stanton. He elevated himself into the conversation of best players in baseball. His 37 home runs were second most in the league. Albert Pujols had a nice bounce-back season. Hunter Pence and Evan Gattis made solid contributions as well. It was an up and down season for first overall draft pick, Yasiel Puig. But he helps bolster a squad with a ton of upside moving forward. The Jackalope have almost always been built around pitching. But the core that led them to the 2011 title has started to dissipate, with one notable exception: Felix Hernandez. King Felix had a 2.14 ERA and 0.915 WHIP, which trailed only Kershaw. His 248 strikeouts were the third most in the league. He will certainly garner Cy Young consideration. Sonny Gray and Jeff Samardzija solidified their spots in the Jackalope’s revamped rotation. Aroldis Chapman put up ridiculous numbers out of the bullpen, despite not pitching until May after a scary spring training injury. He struck out 103 in just 53 innings, while saving 35 games too.

    Although they were not particularly close to winning the championship this season, it won’t take major overhauls for the Mavericks, Choppers and Jackalope to be contenders in 2015. Mostly, they just need the Naturals and Demigods not to set a record-breaking pace again next year. These teams are all in very good shape. The same can’t be said for all of the five teams who finished miles behind the leaders. We’ll examine those bottom five in the third and final season recap article, coming soon!

    Last week, I updated all of the 2014 PAR numbers for every player who appeared on a DTBL roster this season. As you may recall from my PAR introduction, these values are calculated using five years worth of historical data. Prior to this latest update, the historical data came from the 2009-2013 seasons, just like the 2013 PAR values you currently see on players’ pages. But now that the season is over, I was able to swap out the oldest season (2009) with this year’s numbers. This helps keep PAR more relevant to today’s stats. For the most part, this adjustment caused hitters PAR to go up and pitchers PAR to go down. This makes sense because the “replacement level” offensive numbers all went down when replacing the 2009 stats with the much weaker offensive numbers of 2014. And the opposite for pitchers. On the whole, batters still earned fewer than the expected league-wide batting PAR of 225. But I expected this because 2014 was the worst offensive season in league history. Once I’m able to calculate the historical PAR values all the way back to the league’s origin, the numbers should even out a bit. If I find this not to be the case, I’ll take another look at my formulas. Anyway, expect past season PAR updates to occur sporadically over the winter. I hope to write about the numbers from each season as I release them to the site.

    Enjoy the rest of the World Series!

  • Naturals Survive, Break Record


    It was a bit of a rough go of it for the Naturals down the stretch. They had to go at it without two of their best hitters along with several other injuries which left them playing short-handed throughout the final month of the season. Meanwhile, they were being chased by a red hot Demigods squad who had cut the lead to just one point with one day left in the season. Despite all of that, not only did they hang on through a dramatic final day to clinch the title, but they managed to smash the ultimate team record along the way. No team has finished with more points than the 89 they earned this year. Nick’s Naturals are the 2014 DTBL Champions!

    You couldn’t have asked for a much better setup for final day drama. The Demigods put up a great final week to close the Naturals lead to just one point heading into Sunday’s games. They did so by passing the Naturals in WHIP, tightening their deficit in RBIs to just two and making moves in several other categories as well. The Demigods lead in WHIP was by the smallest of margins, meaning that category would almost certainly be determined on Sunday when the Demigods had two starters taking the mound (Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels) opposed by three Naturals hurlers (Zack Greinke, David Price and Jordan Zimmermann). Cueto and Hamels acquitted themselves well, but they were upstaged by the Naturals trio, to say the least. All three picked up victories, allowing a combined one run. Oh, and Zimmermann threw the first no-hitter in Nationals history. Needless to say, that was enough for the Naturals to regain the WHIP title, costing the Demigods a point in the process. They also gained a point in ERA and wins on the final day. The Demigods were able to pass them in RBIs, but that was far too little to overcome the pitching shift. The final tally: 89 points for the Naturals and 86.5 for the Demigods.

    The Naturals’ 89 points broke the league record previously held by the 2007 Darkhorses with 87. Their 47 batting points ranks second all-time behind their 2010 co-championship squad which put up a perfect 50. They finished first or second in all five offensive categories. The pitching wasn’t too bad either. 42 pitching points would normally lead the league, but the Demigods actually outdid them there. But thanks to those last day wins, the Naturals finished in the top half of all ten categories and won four of them (AVG, R, W, SV). I will cover the Demigods more in a later article, but their season was record-breaking as well. Their 86.5 points is not only the most ever for a non-champion, but it actually ranks as the third highest team total in league history, trailing only the Naturals and ’07 Darkhorses. Unfortunately for them, they picked the wrong year to put up those kind of numbers.

    Early in the season, the Naturals benefited from being one of the few teams not totally decimated by injuries. Of course, their luck in that department changed significantly down the stretch. But in the end, their hot start was enough to carry them to the title. They held the lead almost the entire season. Through most of the first half, it appeared there would be no late season drama as their lead was routinely in double digits. But injuries to Troy Tulowtizki and Joey Votto, among others, wound up being a bit of an equalizer. However, it was shrewd draft picks and a couple key free agent acquisitions which made the difference in the end. An already loaded roster became the most talented in the league thanks to those moves.

    It started with the draft when, despite picking seventh, the Naturals managed to acquire several of the best players available. Speedster Billy Hamilton lived up to expectations and was one of the most productive first round picks. Nolan Arenado provided great value from the fourth round. Likewise with Adam Eaton in the sixth. But one of the two biggest steals in the draft was their selection of Anthony Rendon in the sixth round (Demigods drafting Corey Kluber in the 10th probably gets the nod as the biggest steal). Rendon finished second in the league in runs with 115, hit 21 homers with 17 steals and should be a leading candidate for DTBL Rookie of the Year.

    These guys augmented a roster that was already pretty loaded. Andrew McCutchen had another MVP candidate kind of season with a .319 average, 23 home runs and 18 steals. Miguel Cabrera had another .300+, 25+ HR, 100+ RBI and R season that was actually a bit of a disappointment because of his insane standards. Justin Upton pitched in 29 home runs and 102 RBI as well. But probably the most valuable player on the roster was Victor Martinez. V-Mart hit a career high 32 home runs with a .335 average and 103 RBI. He led the Naturals offensive players with a 5.6 PAR, good for sixth in the league, but undervalues him at his hard-to-fill position of catcher.

    The Naturals have been an offensive powerhouse for years now, so it was the elite performance of the pitching staff that may have cemented their championship status. None of these guys are likely to win the Cy Young, but the trio who pitched Sunday (Price, Greinke and Zimmermann) also happened to be their three best pitchers. It was fitting that they were the ones to nail down the title. Price led the rotation with 271 strikeouts and a 1.079 WHIP. Greinke won the most games (17) and had the lowest ERA (2.71). And Zimmermann was strong in all four of those categories as well. The in-season signing of Phil Hughes turned out to be a key move as well as he filled in for the injured Homer Bailey and the injured/traded Matt Cain. The bullpen featured four of the league’s most dominating closers: Greg Holland, Glen Perkins, Francisco Rodriguez and Jake McGee. They blew the rest of the league away in saves. Rodriguez and McGee were also in-season signings. So while the early use of free agent signings left the Naturals short-handed in the final month, it wasn’t like they were wasted moves.

    It is unwise to bet against the Naturals in a close championship race. They have come out on top of most of the great pennant races of the past decade. This was their fourth DTBL title and none of the four have been by more than 3 1/2 points. Their average margin of victory is 1.75 points. In 2010, they tied the Darkhorses for the first/only co-championship in league history. Then two years later they came out on top of the epic five team race. And now you can add this year, when another Naturals championship wasn’t locked up until the final day of the season. With this fourth title, the Naturals have joined the Darkhorses with the second most DTBL championships, trailing only the Kings. Not bad for the league’s youngest franchise. All four of those titles have come in the past ten years and now they have won three of the last five championships, easily putting them in the lead for team of the decade at the half-way mark of the 10s.

    Much more to come soon on these season recaps, starting with the Demigods’ heartbreak and a look at a few other teams who didn’t suck. I hope you enjoy the MLB playoffs, which got off to a thrilling start last night. Once again, congratulations to Nick’s Naturals!

  • Chasing a Title


    With nine days remaining in the 2014 baseball season, the DTBL race looks almost exactly like it has most of the season. The Naturals continue to dominate and appear primed to win their third title in five years, earning a clear place as the league’s best franchise through the first half of this decade. But not so fast, my friends! The Demigods are having a pretty amazing season as well and still have a very realistic shot at closing the five point gap, even though time is not on their side.

    I’ll save most of the superlatives about the 2014 Naturals and Demigods for the eventual post-season articles. But here’s something to chew on in the meantime. The league record for total points belongs to the 2007 Darkhorses with 87. The Naturals currently have 89 1/2 points. This year’s runner-up is a lock to become just the second team to finish with at least 80 points and not win a title. The Demigods sit with 84 1/2 points right now. There is a very good chance both teams will finish in the top five all-time in total points. Yet one of them won’t have a championship to show for it (unless the Naturals find themselves in another championship tie).

    In many ways, this Naturals team doesn’t really look like one of the all-time greats. While they are loaded with talent, they’ve had to do it with less than what may have been expected from some of their stars. Late season injuries to several of those stars made it appear their title ride could be derailed, particularly since they haven’t had any free agent signings available for more than a month now. They have actually been playing a man down for quite some time with no healthy shortstop available. But the depth of talent is really shining through.  They currently hold 49 batting points, just a single point away from a clean sweep of the offensive categories.  Again, they are doing this without a full/healthy major league roster.

    As has been the case most of the second half, the Demigods are the only team within an arms reach of the Naturals.  The Demigods have had a great season themselves and would be in great shape to win the league almost any other year.  Seeking their first DTBL title, they actually overtook the Naturals for a few days last month.  The league’s best pitching staff has kept them in the race, despite losing their first round draft pick, Jose Fernandez, in May and a late season injury to their other top pitcher, Yu Darvish.  The Demigods are the only team in the league in the top half of all ten categories.  But will this balance be enough?  They have a lot of work to do in these last nine days.

    Five points may seem like an insurmountable lead with barely more than a week left, particularly since the Naturals haven’t given any ground in weeks.  It is hard to put odds out on the race, but it would be fair to say the Naturals are huge favorites at this point.  But there is still a very realistic path to the championship for the Demigods.  Let’s outline just how that might happen.  First of all, the Naturals are a mortal lock if they remain at their current point total.  They will need to lose a couple points for the Demigods to have any chance.  They are vulnerable in a few offensive categories in particular:  home runs, RBIs and stolen bases.  RBIs is particularly worth watching with the Demigods just 2 behind the Naturals for the top spot.  A two point swing seems quite possible there.  In the pitching categories, I would say the Naturals are actually better positioned to gain points than to lose them.  So that makes a Naturals fall in those three offensive categories absolutely vital to the Demigods.

    On the other side, the Demigods have an opportunity to pick up points in a couple places.  In addition to RBIs, they also have an outside shot at a two point swing in WHIP where they trail only the Naturals.  Although that lead may appear vulnerable, it’s going to take an especially poor week for the Naturals pitchers for the lead in that category to change hands.  The Naturals have actually increased their lead in WHIP in recent days.  But it is still worth watching.  Finally, the Demigods also have a shot at picking up points in stolen bases and home runs.  In summary, the best chance at closing the five point gap appears to be two point swings in RBIs and WHIP combined with Naturals points dropped and/or Demigods points gained in home runs and stolen bases.

    Meanwhile, the other eight teams are pretty much just playing out the string.  I don’t think any of them are particularly satisfied with their results this year, so it’s all about pride at this point.  One other thing to keep an eye on down the stretch is the position of the Kings.  They currently sit in a tie for seventh place, which would equal the worst finish ever for a defending champion.  Will they suffer the fate of becoming the worst defending champion of all time?  There is also a tight race between the Gators and Cougars to avoid finishing in last place, a race that included the Darkhorses, Kings and Moonshiners through much of the season as well.

    Enjoy the stretch run and good luck to the Naturals and Demigods!

  • DTBL August Awards


    As we head into the home stretch, it’s time to take another look into the DTBL award leaders for August.  The races are starting to heat up as season totals begin to look more and more impressive, so for this month, I plan on making some loose predictions as to who I think has the best chance to win each award.

    So as to not potentially influence end of year ballots, this will be my last look at the award categories for this season.  For my end of the season article, I plan on taking a look at something I’ve found interesting through the year, so hopefully you’ll all take a look again then.

    Without further delay, here are the DTBL August Awards.  All stats are through August 31.

    ROY:

    1. Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners – .259 BA, 81 R, 26 HR, 88 RBI, 8 SB
    2. Corey Kluber, Demigods – 1.094 WHIP, 2.47 ERA, 11 W, 0 SV, 185 K
    3. Anthony Rendon, Naturals – .279 BA, 97 R, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 13 SB
    4. Billy Hamilton, Naturals – .267 BA, 70 R, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 54 SB
    5. Julio Teheran, Darkhorses – 1.069 WHIP, 2.90 ERA, 13 W, 0 SV, 160 K

    The ROY list through August features four familiar faces in Donaldson, Kluber, Hamilton, and Teheran, and one new one in Anthony Rendon. Rendon has been on fire lately and was leading DTBL in runs scored while putting up solid all around numbers through August. It is interesting to look back and see where these players were drafted. Donaldson and Hamilton were no brainer first round picks. Teheran went a bit later in the middle of the second round. Rendon is a bit of a surprise here, being a middle of the 6th round pick by the Naturals. However, the real surprise is Kluber, an early 10th round selection of the Demigods.

    If Kluber had spent the entire season in the Demigods rotation, he’d be likely to win the award in a walk. In spite of having to play catch up, though, he is definitely in the running, as any of he, Donaldson, and Rendon would make a fine ROY for 2014.

    Cy Young:

    1. Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks – 0.837 WHIP, 1.73 ERA, 16 W, 0 SV, 194 K
    2. Felix Hernandez, Jackalope – 0.909 WHIP, 2.23 ERA, 13 W, 0 SV, 205 K
    3. Johnny Cueto, Demigods – 0.971 WHIP, 2.26 ERA, 16 W, 0 SV, 205 K
    4. Madison Bumgarner, Cougars – 1.084 WHIP, 2.97 ERA, 16 W, 0 SV, 199 K
    5. Max Scherzer, Kings – 1.151 WHIP, 3.26 ERA, 15 W, 0 SV, 220 K

    The top three of this list, Kershaw, Hernandez, and Cueto, have been on this list most of the season. Miniscule ratios, big win and strikeout totals; they have it all, and could highlight any pitching staff. However, showing the volatility of pitching this year, the last two names on the list, Madison Bumgarner and Max Scherzer, both make their awards debuts. Like the rest of the pitchers, they feature great win and strikeout totals, even if their ratios aren’t quite up to par with the top three.

    That being said, this is Kershaw’s award to lose. Hernandez and Cueto have put up great numbers all year, but Kershaw has been on another level since his return from injury. One can only wonder what his year would have been like if he hadn’t missed all of April.

    MVP:

    1. Mike Trout, Mavericks – .290 BA, 92 R, 31 HR, 97 RBI, 13 SB
    2. Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope – .292 BA, 83 R, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 10 SB
    3. Jose Altuve, Demigods – .336 BA, 73 R, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 49 SB
    4. Michael Brantley, Cougars – .310 BA, 81 R, 18 HR, 85 RBI, 17 SB
    5. Carlos Gomez, Demigods – .282 BA, 85 R, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 29 SB

    Arriving in the MVP discussion for the first time is Carlos Gomez, the only 20/20 player on this list. There’s a good chance he’ll share that distinction with Michael Brantley, who only needs 2 homers and 3 steals to join the club. Both players are here after the unfortunate injuries to Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew McCutchen who find themselves out of the top 5 as a result. Jose Altuve continues to quietly put together an amazing season, hitting for average, stealing loads of bases, and providing a bit of pop to go with it.

    In the end, though, the MVP should come down to two of the best young players in the game today. Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout. If Trout stole bases as often as he did when he first broke in to the majors, he’d be running away with this award. However, slowing down on the bases has left the door open for Stanton. The power, RBI, and batting average edge slightly Stanton, while the runs scored and speed slightly favor Trout. If the numbers remain this close at the end of September as they were at the end of August, we may be looking at the closest MVP vote since Albert Pujols squeaked out the victory over Carlos Gonzalez in 2010.

  • DTBL July Awards


    Perhaps it is a bit late for this article, seeing as how it’s already the second weekend of August, but it’s time to look back at the best of the best for July in DTBL. A lot has changed in the past ten days, so there’s a good chance of seeing a shakeup on this list at the end of the month. But, as all stats are through July 31, 2014, it will be good to acknowledge solid play before seasons were ruined by beanballs.

    Also, for this month, the focus will be on where the players’ stats rank in the DTBL leaders at each applicable category, to check in on just how dominant these players have been.

    Rookie of the Year:

    Julio Teheran, Darkhorses: 1.042 WHIP, 2.69 ERA, 10 W, 0 SV, 141 K
    Corey Kluber, Demigods: 1.067 WHIP, 2.57 ERA, 9 W, 0 SV, 142 K
    Josh Donaldson, Moonshiners: .247 BA, 72 R, 23 HR, 76 RBI, 4 SB
    Billy Hamilton, Naturals: .270 BA, 53 R, 6 HR, 40 RBI, 42 SB
    Sonny Gray, Jackalope: 1.180 WHIP, 2.65 ERA, 12 W, 0 SV, 121 K

    Teheran continues his rookie dominance, posting a 7th place WHIP, with ERA, win, and strikeout totals just missing out on the Top 10. Kluber marks the first appearance of a partial season player here, but he has been utterly dominant since arriving in the Demigods rotation. A 10th place WHIP, 9th place ERA, and one strikeout out of the Top 10 makes for quite the partial season performance. Josh Donaldson’s consistency sees him in a tie for 7th in home runs, a tie for 3rd in RBI, and a tie for 5th in runs scored, while Billy Hamilton’s otherworldly speed places him in a tie for 1st in that category to go with solid all around numbers for a speedster. Finally, Sonny Gray checks in in a 5 way tie for 4th in wins, while barely missing the leaderboard for ERA. Just missing from this list is Anthony Rendon, who was tied for the DTBL lead in runs scored with 75 at the end of July while also putting up solid numbers in all categories.

    Cy Young:

    Clayton Kershaw, Mavericks: .824 WHIP, 1.71 ERA, 13 W, 0 SV, 150 K
    Felix Hernandez, Jackalope: .889 WHIP, 2.01 ERA, 11, W, 0 SV, 178 K
    Johnny Cueto, Demigods: .916 WHIP, 2.05 ERA, 12 W, 0 SV, 166 K
    David Price, Naturals: 1.049 WHIP, 3.11 ERA, 11 W, 0 SV, 189 K
    Adam Wainwright, Cougars: .962 WHIP, 1.92 ERA, 13 W, 0 SV, 122 K

    These pitchers continue to light up radar guns and keep opposing players swinging and missing at incredible rates. Kershaw ranks first most everywhere – WHIP, ERA, and wins, and is 8th in strikeouts, a number that is a casualty of his time on the DL this spring. King Felix rates 2nd in WHIP, 4th in ERA, a tie for 9th in wins, and is 2nd in strikeouts. More of the same follows for the rest of these guys: Cueto ranks 4th in WHIP, 5th in ERA, tie for 4th in wins, and 5th in strikeouts; Price has turned things around to the tune of 8th in WHIP, tie for 9th in wins, and first in strikeouts; Wainwright checks in at 5th in WHIP, 2nd in ERA, and tied for first in wins. Honorable mention goes to Chris Sale, who ranks 3rd in both ERA and WHIP, like Kershaw, is hurt by being injured for part of the season.

    MVP:

    Mike Trout, Mavericks: .300 BA, 74 R, 24 HR, 76 RBI, 10 SB
    Jose Altuve, Demigods: .339 BA, 56 R, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 42 SB
    Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope: .293 BA, 69 R, 25 HR, 73 RBI, 10 SB
    Paul Goldschmidt, Jackalope: .300 BA, 75 R, 19 HR, 69 RBI, 9 SB
    Andrew McCutchen, Naturals: .305 BA, 60 R, 17 HR, 64 RBI, 17 SB

    A thing to note about the MVP candidates this month is that they generally produce in all 5 categories. While the steal totals may not place all of them in the Top 10, they do provide that 5 tool fantasy output that all owners crave. Trout comes in at 3rd in runs scored, a tie for 3rd in RBI, and 6th in home runs. Altuve is tied for 1st in steals to go along with a 2nd place batting average. Stanton is tied for 10th in runs, 6th in RBI, and tied for 3rd in homers. Paul Goldschmidt, the first hit by pitch casualty of this list, was tied for first in runs scored and 10th in RBI, while Andrew McCutchen, the other hit by pitch casualty (or beaning casualty, if you prefer), while missing out on the top 10 in any category, has the best power/speed balance in DTBL. The hardest decision of the month, however, came down to McCutchen and Michael Brantley for the 5th spot, as his solid all around numbers (.316 BA, 71 R, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB) are definitely worthy of consideration.

    Comments? Disagreements? Have at it in the comment section.