News from the Dream Team Baseball League

  • Naturals Grab Third Title

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Naturals pitcher David Price

    The World Series is over and the DTBL season wrapped up almost a month ago, so I suppose it is about time I write about the Naturals title winning season.  Actually, I may have skipped this altogether, except I suddenly find myself with some unexpected free time thanks to Hurricane Sandy.  Hopefully I won’t lose power before I finish this…

    Perhaps when it became obvious that we were headed for a chaotic sprint for the finish line, the Naturals should have been the clear favorite to finish first.  They have now come out on top of the two best finishes in league history and have never won the title by more than 3 1/2 points.  Their 2005 title now looks like a cakewalk as they bested the Moonshiners by 3 1/2.  Then in 2010, we had the unforgettable first place tie between the Naturals and Darkhorses, with two other teams within 5 points of first.  But the finishes to those seasons were nothing like 2012.  As I covered in the last article, five teams had a legitimate chance to win the championship heading into the final day of the season.  But in the end, Nick’s Naturals captured the 2012 Dream Team Baseball League Championship.

    With their third DTBL title, the Naturals are now tied with the Cougars for the third most titles in league history, just one behind the Darkhorses and Kings.  Not bad for the league’s youngest franchise.  Since the Darkhorses four-peat, the Naturals have been the league’s most dominating team.  They have finished no lower than third place since 2009, including two titles and a second place finish in 2011.  Despite finishing a distant second to the Jackalope a year ago, they were absolutely considered one of the favorites headed into 2012.  But the manner in which they went about winning the title was not what most predicted.  Previously a hitting dominated team, it was the Naturals pitching staff that led them to the title.

    In 2011, the Naturals finished 10 1/2 points behind the Jackalope, but it was a shaky pitching staff that kept them from making a serious title run.  They led the league with 45 batting points, but only earned a mediocre 25 1/2 pitching points.  That put them 23 1/2 pitching points behind the champion Jackalope, obviously too big of a margin to make up on offense.  But in 2012, it was almost the opposite situation.  The offense slipped to just 29 batting points, ranking fifth in the league.  A vastly improved pitching staff earned them 41 1/2 points, just 1/2 point behind the Jackalope for most in the league.  When put together, those numbers earned them a one point advantage over the Kings and Mavericks.

    Although the offense was largely disappointing, one player in particular kept the team afloat:  Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera famously won the first league triple crown since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.  He did not win the same honor in the DTBL though since Melky Cabrera, Buster Posey and Mike Trout bested him in batting average.  In case you were wondering about Melky Cabrera and Trout finishing ahead of him, our league uses 400 at bats as the minimum qualifying mark, so Cabrera was able to qualify despite the PED suspension and wound up winning the DTBL batting title.  Meanwhile, although he finished behind Miguel Cabrera in the AL batting title race, Trout finished just ahead of him in our league because the Mavericks did not have him active for his first week in the MLB this season.  But anyway, that does not take away from the impressive season by Miguel Cabrera.  He hit .330 and led the DTBL in home runs (44) and runs batted in (139).  Only Trout scored more runs than his 109.  Just like in the American League, it should be a fascinating race between him and Trout for the MVP award.

    Cabrera was not the only standout offensive performer for the Naturals though.  Andrew McCutchen appears to have reached superstar status.  He joined the 30-20 club with 31 home runs and 20 stolen bases while hitting for a .327 average.  He also figures to garner some MVP consideration.  Chase Headley and Chris Davis were the biggest surprises on the roster, coming out of relative obscurity to have big seasons.  Both were very shrewd early season free agent signings by the Naturals.  Joey Votto was another player who was having a huge season, until a mid-season injury derailed him and he was never quite the same in the second half.

    In some ways, the Naturals offense wasn’t really that huge of a disappointment when you consider what they had to overcome.  Injuries ruined most/all of the season for some of their key contributors from years past:  Troy Tulowitzki, Carl Crawford, Victor Martinez and a late season injury to Nick Markakis.  6th round pick Mat Gamel was lost extremely early in the season as well.  So the fact that the Naturals slipped up in batting points this season was not at all surprising.  Fortunately for them, they had a pitching staff to pick up the slack.

    David Price, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Jon Lester teamed up to create a starting rotation as good as anybody’s, except possibly the Jackalope.  In fact, those five were so steady that Homer Bailey found himself in the minors almost the entire season despite a huge breakout season for him too.  Lester’s season was slightly disappointing, but the other four were among the best pitchers in the league this year.  Price will probably be the team’s top Cy Young candidate.  He finished second in the league in wins (20) and ERA (2.56) and was also among the league leaders in WHIP (1.10) and strike outs (205).  Cain threw a perfect game in ’12 and led the Naturals in WHIP (1.04) while winning 16 games.  Greinke had another steady season, though he tailed off a bit after the trade to the American League.  And Zimmermann had a breakout year, posting an impressive 2.94 ERA.

    The Naturals bullpen was a strength as well, finishing second in the league in saves despite finishing the season with just two closers.  Jason Motte and Chris Perez finished third and fifth respectively in the league in saves.  Jonathan Broxton contributed 27 saves as well, most of the coming before he was traded to Cincinnati.  It was a nice showing by a group that lost one of its key pieces in spring training, when Joakim Soria was lost to Tommy John surgery.

    The 2012 season will be best remembered for the unbelievable championship race.  But when it was all said and done, the Naturals claimed a well deserved DTBL Championship.  Next year, they will attempt to tie for the most titles in league history, and there is no reason to think they won’t be one of the favorites to do just that.

    Later this week, I will recap the season of the other title contenders and will then wrap things up with the teams that finished in the bottom half of the standings.  If I get another day off of work, perhaps that second article will come tomorrow.  Also look for the 2012 DTBL awards ballot to be posted later this week.  Those award winners will be announced in November.

    Categories:

  • The Chaos Ends, Naturally

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Naturals first baseman Miguel Cabrera

    In the two decades this league has existed, we’ve had our fair share of exciting finishes to DTBL seasons, but nothing quite like this year.  The final week of the 2012 season featured five teams within at least two points of first place at some point in the week.  In fact, if you count incremental progress within each date, most of the five found themselves in first place at some point.  For a brief moment on Wednesday night, it looked like we may have been headed to an absurd three way tie for the league championship.  However, when the dust settled, only one team came out on top.  Congratulations to Nick’s Naturals, the 2012 Dream Team Baseball League Champions!

    As usual, I intend to write about the league champion with a full recap of how they earned the title.  But that is going to have to wait until next week.  Tonight, I want to focus on the absurdity of the title race, describe just how things went down on the final night, and describe just how close we were to the most unlikely result in any fantasy league I have ever been a part of.

    As the summer progressed, it seemed quite likely that we were headed towards an exciting finish.  At no point in the season had any team run away from the pack; at least not for more than a few days at a time.  The lead constantly changed hands.  Seven teams looked like legitimate title contenders.  The Cougars and Choppers faded a bit in July and August, setting up a five team race to the finish.  With exactly one week to go, here is how the top five looked:

    1. Moonshiners, 73.5 points
    2. Kings, 72.5 (-1)
    3. Naturals, 67 (-6.5)
    4. Jackalope, 66.5 (-7)
    5. Mavericks, 65 (-8.5)

    It was fairly noteworthy that the top two teams had separated themselves from the others by more than five points, because that was rarely the case in September.  But it was clear when analyzing the standings that more change was likely to come.  There was also a great deal of uncertainty heading into the final transaction deadline.  Would the teams who had already clinched MLB playoff spots rest their starters?  Skip spots in the rotation?  Or even completely shut down some guys?  This was particularly troubling for teams worried about getting as many starts from their starting pitchers as possible.  The Moonshiners appeared to be in very good shape, not only because they held the top spot, but they had most of their starting pitchers slated to start twice in the final week.  Meanwhile, the Kings were dealing with several nagging injuries to their outfielders and uncertainty about Max Scherzer’s availability in the final week.  The other three challengers were just trying to hang on.

    Three days later, the Moonshiners lead grew to four points.  The four challengers were all within a point of each other, but needed to make up ground quickly.  By the next morning (Monday), the lead was down to 1 1/2 points and the sprint to the finish was on.  On the second to last day of the season, the Moonshiners lost the lead completely as the Kings and Naturals moved into a tie for first entering the final day.  The Moonshiners slipped to 1 1/2 points back.  The Jackalope’s dream of a repeat seemed unlikely, 3 1/2 points behind.  And finally, the Mavericks looked to be in big trouble, 5 1/2 points off the pace.  But the Mavericks had one thing going for them that the other challengers did not:  multiple starting pitchers scheduled to take the mound, including their ace, Clayton Kershaw.  Actually, that’s not quite true.  The Moonshiners were also supposed to get three starts on the final day of the season.  However, the Brewers elected to scratch Yovani Gallardo and the Angels pulled Jered Weaver after just one inning.  This essentially ended the Moonshiners hopes of gaining a point in strike outs and decreased their movement possibilities in ERA and WHIP.

    I won’t rehash all of the events of the final day, as most of them can be found in my live blog from yesterday.  But one part of the story must be repeated.  During the 10 o’clock hour, I was frantically updating my spreadsheet with all of the stats from the completed 7 p.m. games as well as most of the stats from the last batch of games.  At one point, I calculated a three way tie for first place.  Had the season ended at that instant, the Kings, Mavericks and Naturals would have shared the title.  But some later shifts in RBI and saves moved the Naturals back into the final position they claimed.

    The three way tie scenario was actually a lot closer to happening than I realized last night.  The WHIP category was the craziest to follow on the last day.  Only three of the league’s ten teams ended the day where they started in that category.  The margins between most of the teams were miniscule, but especially between the Gators and Naturals.  When it was all said and done, the Naturals edged out the Gators for second place in WHIP by two ten-thousandths of a point.  To put that in perspective, had any Naturals pitcher finished the season with one more base runner allowed via hit or walk, the Gators would have finished ahead of them and we would be talking about three co-champions.  I bet I wouldn’t have to try very hard to find a questionable scoring decision somewhere over the course of the season where a Naturals pitcher benefited from an error rather than a hit.  But that’s not to say the Naturals got lucky.  In fact, they were well positioned to gain points in a whole host of other categories.  They were one offensive hit away from passing the Kings in batting average, for example.  I only illustrate this to show you just how ridiculously close this race was.

    Of the ten categories, all but two of them saw points change hands during the final day.  This is incredibly unusual at the six month mark of the season, especially in high value counting categories like RBI and runs.  Based on what we saw yesterday, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that we would have had four or five different leaders if the season had extended a few more days, just as we saw the lead change hands several times over the final weeks.  But the season has to end sometime, and the Naturals were fortunate enough to come out on top.

    I’m sure all four of the teams who came up just short have been thinking about decisions they made that may have cost them a title.  With the way things ended up, it wouldn’t be very hard to point to a single transaction each team made (or could have made, but didn’t), which would have shifted the standings in their favor.  But such is life when a season ends as this one did.  There is always next year for the rest of us!

    What is it with the finishes in Naturals championship seasons?  They earned their third DTBL title this year, and the two most recent ones have come in the two craziest finishes in league history.  Of course, the other season I speak of was 2010 when they shared the title with the Darkhorses.  It certainly makes their 3 1/2 point victory in 2005 look like a cakewalk.

    Look for a full review of the Naturals championship season next week, as well as a glimpse at the other contenders who fell just short.

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  • Live Blog: Season Finale

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Mavericks pitcher Clayton Kershaw

    After sending the email to the group list last night, I realized that it can be difficult to fully describe what is going on with just 140 characters at a time, so I’ve decided to start a running blog post to summarize the championship race this evening.  I will continue to tweet updates as well, but feel free to keep refreshing this post to see my updates throughout the night.

    With one day remaining on the schedule, we have five teams within three points of first place.  It doesn’t get any better than this.  There are points to be gained or lost in almost every category.  I will let you know every change as close to real-time as possible, via Twitter, and with occasional updates here.

    Time for me to get caught up on the afternoon games.  There were some very interesting developments, but it remains to be seen if there were any changes to the standings.  I’ll have an update shortly.  Stay tuned!

    7:50 pm

    Well, I’ve finished updating things through the completed afternoon games.  Thanks to a rough outing by Jonathan Papelbon, the Kings dropped a point in ERA, falling behind the Choppers.  Meanwhile, the Jackalope also fell one further down as the Choppers passed them in WHIP.  Plenty of categories tightened as well.  The Kings picked up two home runs (Zimmerman and Morse) and are now just one behind the Mavericks for the league lead.  However, the standings are now as follows:  Naturals (71 points), Moonshiners (70), Kings and Mavericks tied (69), Jackalope (67).  Not looking good for the defending champs.  Now I’ll work on updating the games in progress.

    8:40 pm

    Okay, trying to keep this “live” is virtually impossible, but one thing is starting to become clear.  It appears the Naturals will win the 2012 DTBL Championship.  They now lead the league with 72 1/2 points.  The Mavericks have moved up to 2nd place, but are 3 points back.  Moonshiners have dropped to 3rd (69).  Kings and Jackalope are 4th and 5th respectively, and are leaking points all over the place.  Still way too many close categories to call this thing, but not looking good for anyone other than the Naturals.

    9:00 pm

    Did they really have to schedule this Presidential Debate on the last night of the MLB season?  Don’t they know there are fantasy league titles on the line tonight?  May not be many updates from me for a while…  Still looking good for the Naturals, though Robinson Cano’s big night has pushed the Kings into the league lead in HR and has them back into 2nd place overall.  2 1/2 point lead for the Naturals though.

    10:51 pm

    Way too many changes since my last update to list, but we have a major development.  I now have the Kings, Mavericks and Naturals in a three way tie for first at 69.5 points, with the Moonshiners 1/2 point back and the Jackalope 2 points behind the leader.  The main reasons for the change:  great start by Clayton Kershaw gave the Mavericks a boost, especially since another Mavericks pitcher (Ryan Vogelsong) also had a good outing in that same game.  Robinson Cano went 4 for 4 with a pair of home runs, boosting the Kings in HR and batting average.   Finally, I have the Naturals and Jackalope tied in RBIs now, which also cost the Naturals 1/2 point.  Needless to say, it is way too close to call right now.

    11:11 pm

    Jason Motte’s save puts the Naturals back into the lead.  Ironically, it was another Naturals pitcher that helped set up the save opportunity.  Jonathan Broxton gave up a run and took the loss.  He didn’t cost the Naturals in the WHIP category, yet.  They are thousandths of a point ahead of the Gators at the moment, according to my calculations.  Kings, Mavericks and Moonshiners are all within a point, so a change in any category could tip the title in a different direction.

    11:47 pm

    The 2012 season is now over.  I have compiled all of today’s results.  The gap between teams in almost every category is so small that I do not trust my final results and sort of wish I hadn’t chosen to do this “live” updating because the chances I have it wrong are quite high.  Anyway, according to my numbers the 2012 DTBL Champions are Nick’s Naturals!

    The Naturals have 70 1/2 points.  The Kings and Mavericks tied for second place, just one point behind.  The Moonshiners fell to fourth place with 69 points and the Jackalope came in 5th with 67.

    I urge you to check in again tomorrow morning around 8:15 a.m. EDT when I will post the official results.  This could be a “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment, but if not, congratulations Nick!

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  • Mad Dash to the Finish

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Moonshiners first baseman Prince Fielder

    For most of the month of September, as many as five teams have been within a couple points of first place, setting up the potential for one of the craziest finishes in league history.  I wish I had taken the time to write this article a few days ago when all five of the contenders were within two points of each other.  In the last couple days, the gap has widened a bit.  But the fluctuation in those couple days just goes to show you how quickly things could change again.  With less than a week to go in the 2012 DTBL season, the league title isn’t even close to being decided.

    Here is a team-by-team overview of the five contenders, looking at the state of each team and what needs to happen for them to finish on top.

    Jackalope

    Although at no point this season have the defending champions held a commanding lead, I really felt they were the team to beat in the late summer.  They were showing signs of the same form that led them to the title last year.  But their offense has been a huge disappointment most of the season, and especially lately.  Ryan Braun has been trying to carry the load, but he has had virtually no help.  The injury to Giancarlo Stanton couldn’t have come at a worse time, although he is back in the lineup tonight.  The Jackalope’s nine point deficit may be too much to make up in such a short period of time, especially since the offense has shown no signs of life.  It would seem likely that we will have a new champion in 2012, but don’t count the Jackalope out just yet.

    Mavericks

    The surprise team of the year appears to be running out of gas.  It is a pretty notable accomplishment for them to have remained in the race this long.  Due to exhausting all of their free agent signings well over a month ago, they have been unable to field replacements for players who have been injured/shelved in recent weeks.  Prior to Clayton Kershaw’s return earlier this week, the Mavericks were stuck with just three healthy/active starting pitchers.  The Stephen Strasburg shutdown was expected, but the Johan Santana and Kershaw injuries were not.  Perhaps their strategy of burning through their free agent signings could be questioned, but I think the Mavericks figured their rebuilding plan was at least a year ahead of schedule, so they were playing with house money.  This will be a tough team to beat in 2013.

    Naturals

    Many of the things stated in the Jackalope section also apply here.  The Naturals have remained in the title chase despite a slightly disappointing offense.  Miguel Cabrera and Andrew McCutchen have been doing their part, but the Naturals still find themselves in the middle of the pack in batting points.  The good news is they are situated in striking distance of their nearest competitor in a whole bunch of categories.  They have a decent shot at picking up as many as three points in home runs alone.  In fact, I believe they have the best chance of anyone to catch the Moonshiners.  Their pitching staff is the best in the league right now.  If the Moonshiners slip up at all, expect the Naturals to be right there on the final day of the season.

    Kings

    The second half turnaround of the Kings pitching staff has been extremely impressive and season saving.  Burried in 9th place in ERA most of the season, their deficit appeared to be too much to make up.  But the Tigers’ duo of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer has propelled them up to a more respectable spot.  However, the Kings title hopes may have been dashed when news came out that Scherzer would miss his start this weekend and may not pitch again in the regular season.  Kings management learned of this just hours after the final transactions of the year had been processed.  So if Anibal Sanchez winds up throwing another gem this weekend, the failure to keep him in the lineup could be the dagger to the Kings.  The other problem is that they have pretty much reached their point ceiling.  Most likely, the only way they will make up the current 3 1/2 point deficit is if the Moonshiners fall back a bit.

    Moonshiners

    Usually, a team would feel pretty good about a 3 1/2 point lead with less than a week to go.  But considering the Moonshiners weren’t even in first place earlier this week, obviously a lot can happen in just a couple days.  Unlike the other four title contenders, the Moonshiners don’t have an obvious weakness.  They are the only team in the league with 30+ batting and pitching points.  In fact, they are over 35 in both.  It’s pretty simple for the Moonshiners.  All they need to do is hold serve.  No other team is going to reach the mid-70’s point mark.  So as long as they don’t start dropping points, they will win their first DTBL title.  However, that’s not exactly a sure thing.  They are in danger of losing points in home runs, WHIP, wins, strike outs and possibly even batting average.  The fat lady hasn’t even started warming up her vocal chords.

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  • Moonshiners Make a Splash

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Moonshiners catcher Miguel Montero

    During the 2011 regular season, there was not a single trade completed in the DTBL.  This year, things were back to normal with a handful of deals going down.  This was not a surprising development since, unlike last year, more than half of the teams were still in title contention by the time the trade deadline arrived earlier this week.  In total, five trades were completed.  Three of them involved the Moonshiners, who are trying to make this the second consecutive season with a first time DTBL champion.  Since I have not written about any of the these trades, I will recap them all right now, even the ones that were completed quite a while ago.

    Mavericks/Darkhorses (June 6)

    Mavericks get:  RP Matt Capps, P Matt Harrison

    Darkhorses get:  P Ricky Romero, RP Daniel Bard

    I don’t think it is too early to say this trade his been quite a disaster on both sides.  The Mavericks made this deal to try to get themselves another closer, but Matt Capps got hurt very soon after this trade and is yet to record a save for his new team.  Meanwhile, the key piece going the opposite direction, Ricky Romero, has continued his dreadful season.  The Darkhorses other acquisition, Daniel Bard, is buried in the minors where he can’t throw strikes.  It is unclear if he will ever be a viable MLB pitcher again.  As it turns out, the only player in this trade who has had any sort of value is Matt Harrison.  But he was only included because the Darkhorses needed to clear out a roster spot.  The Mavericks immediately released him.  The Moonshiners swooped in and signed him later and he has had a very productive season for them.

    Mavericks/Gators (July 11)

    Mavericks get:  2B Dan Uggla

    Gators get:  C Salvador Perez

    As Greg can confirm, I was not happy when I saw the details of this trade.  I thought it was a steal for the Mavericks, primarily because they were able to fill a glaring hole (Dee Gordon had just gone on the DL, leaving them short a middle infielder) without giving up a player that had much value to them.  But with hindsight being 20/20, this was actually a pretty solid move for the Gators.  Uggla is a batting average killer and isn’t even putting up particularly impressive power numbers anymore.  In fact, since this trade was made, Perez has one more home run than Uggla.  Perez is obviously a lot younger too, making him a better fit for the Gators future plans.  That’s not to say this has become a bad trade for the Mavericks though.  They had little use for Perez with Wieters and Santana anchoring their catching staff.  Perhaps Uggla will go on one of his patented hot streaks before this season ends.

    Moonshiners/Demigods (July 26)

    Moonshiners get:  RP Joe Nathan, 12th Round Pick

    Demigods get:  2nd Round Pick

    There was a lot of activity around the trade deadline involving closers, but this was the only deal that actually got done (not counting the Capps trade in June).  Out of contention for this season, the Demigods had little use for a 37 year old closer.  So they were able to get a second round pick for him.  If you are wondering what type of player this could turn out to be for the Demigods, here are two names of players picked in this year’s second round:  Mike Trout and Gio Gonzalez.  Maybe they won’t get that lucky, but there is too much opportunity there for them to have passed on a deal like this.  Meanwhile, this was the first sign that the Moonshiners are truly “all in” for 2012.  They are up to 5th in saves with a great opportunity to pick up another point before the year is over.

    Moonshiners/Kings (August 15)

    Moonshiners get:  C Miguel Montero, P Edwin Jackson

    Kings get:  P Dan Haren, 3B David Freese

    This was probably the biggest trade made this season, in part because it was the only one involving two teams in the championship chase.  In fact, to see two teams so close to each other in the standings make a trade this big this late in the season is quite rare.  The Moonshiners needed to find a catcher after losing both of their regulars (J.P. Arencibia and Mike Napoli) to injuries.  Not only were they able to find one, but they got an upper echelon receiver in Montero.  The Kings could afford to deal  him because they had two other good, young catchers on their roster (Jonathan LuCroy and Wilin Rosario).  On the flip side, the Kings have been struggling to find effective starting pitching all season.  In many ways, Haren fits right in with the rest of the underachieving staff.  However, he probably has more upside than anyone in their rotation not named Verlander.  Although this was an attempt to get better now, the bigger upside for the Kings may be in the future.  Freese returns to his original DTBL team to fill a need at 3B, which has been a black hole since ARod got hurt.  Jackson could wind up being a huge pickup for the Moonshiners too, even though he was probably considered the least valuable player in the deal.

    Moonshiners/Darkhorses (August 15)

    Moonshiners get:  OF Alex Rios, 11th Round Pick

    Darkhorses get:  C Mike Napoli, 4th Round Pick

    The last trade, completed within the last couple hours before the deadline, was what the Moonshiners hope to be the final piece of their puzzle.  They acquired the red-hot Rios for an injured catcher and a draft pick swap.  Earlier this year, nobody would have guessed that a Napoli/Rios swap would lead to the team acquiring Napoli also receiving the advantage in a draft pick exchange.  But it has been a disappointing, and now injury hampered season for Napoli.  He could be a key addition for the Darkhorses though as he is capable of supplying big time power from a very weak position.  But for this season, Rios is obviously the player with more value.  He is having a very productive season, following a truly dreadful 2011.  The recent trend points to good seasons in even numbered years and poor seasons in odd years.  So we’ll have to see what he provides the Moonshiners next year.  But in the mean time, he could be a huge addition for the final month and a half of 2012.

    Finally, I want to end with a follow up to my previous blog post, which focused on the Stephen Strasburg situation.  I knew this was going to be a big story, but didn’t expect major features coming out from every corner of the sports world the last few weeks.  It has been discussed on nearly every sports program and web site.  What I find fascinating is that the people who seem to have the most to lose (short term) from a Strasburg shutdown (the Nationals, their fans, and the DC sports media) seem to be the only ones who actually support the shutdown.  Meanwhile, the so-called experts outside of DC seem to be unanimously opposed to the shutdown.  This is almost exactly the opposite of what I expected.  Hearing Rob Dibble and Tim McCarver give dimwitted declarations of opposition to the shutdown actually has me reconsidering my position.  Do I really want to be on their side of this argument?

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  • The Strasburg Dilemma

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Mavericks pitcher Stephen Strasburg

    The most common baseball related question being asked here in DC these days is will they or won’t they?  As in, will the Nationals actually shut down Stephen Strasburg in the middle of a pennant race with his team trying to reach the playoffs for the first time since they moved to DC and only the second time in franchise history?  I gather that it is one of the biggest stories in all of baseball as well.  Since I have seen most of Strasburg’s starts this year, either in person or on TV, I have certainly developed my own opinion on the matter.  So I figure I should put myself on the record before the story reaches its final chapter.  I’ll touch on the fantasy implications as well, but only briefly.

    I believe it would be a mistake to shut Strasburg down in September, but with some significant caveats which I will get to in a bit.  Shutting him down would seriously jeopardize the team’s chances of post-season success, which should be the ultimate goal of every MLB franchise.  If there was hard evidence that limiting a young pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery is always the right answer, then perhaps I would have delayed the start of Strasburg’s season.  But what I would not do is go into the playoffs without my best pitcher, if he is healthy, and if I thought my team had a very good chance of making a World Series run.

    First, a little history for those of you who may not follow the Nationals all that closely.  Since the Expos moved to Washington in 2005, the franchise has mostly been the laughingstock of the league.  They finished in last place in five of their first six seasons, highlighted by MLB worst records in 2008 and 2009, their first two seasons in a new ballpark.  They lost 102 and 103 games in those dreadful campaigns.  Of course, those seasons also led to them receiving the first overall pick in the draft in consecutive years, which they used to select a couple guys you may have heard of:  Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.  They could not have picked two better years to be so terrible.  Yet, just having some of the best young prospects on the roster doesn’t make a team a winner.  The Nationals still had a lot of improving to do, to erase the stench of losing.

    Mid-way through that dreadful 2009 season, one of the Nats promising young pitchers, Jordan Zimmermann, tore a ligament in his elbow and was lost for over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  The following summer, Strasburg burst onto the scene dominating Major League hitters right from the start as he struck out 14 batters in his MLB debut.  It was a magical summer, but it all came crashing down when Strasburg also succumbed to a torn elbow ligament in late August.  Coincidentally, the date in which it was diagnosed that Strasburg would need Tommy John surgery was the date Zimmermann made his first MLB start following the same surgery.

    Part of the reason why the Strasburg debate is what it is, is because the Nats have a blueprint to follow with Zimmermann.  Right from the start of the 2011 season, Zimmermann was put on a very strict, and very public, 160 innings limit for the season.  When he reached that mark in early September, the Nationals shut him down and he did not pitch again until this year’s spring training.  His recovery has been a huge success, as he has arguably been the most consistent starter in the Nationals’ MLB-best rotation this year.  So why wouldn’t the Nats follow the exact same plan with Strasburg?  Well, there is one significant difference.  The Nationals entered 2011 with extremely low expectations following another last place finish and had no intention of being a playoff contender, especially with Strasburg set to miss most of the season.  Sure enough, they were not a playoff contender, although they did win 80 games for the first time since 2005.  But they were essentially out of the race by the time Zimmermann reached his innings limit, so there was absolutely no reason not to stick to the plan.

    Strasburg successfully returned to the big leagues for a handful of starts in September of 2011 and was named the Opening Day starter for 2012, a year in which the Nationals hoped to make their first legitimate run at the playoffs since moving to DC.  Perhaps even exceeding their own expectations, they have had a remarkable season in which they have been in first place in the NL East most of the year, and even had the best record in baseball as recently as a couple weeks ago.  So it is almost certain that the Nationals will either be in a playoff spot, or very close to it, when Strasburg reaches whatever limit the Nationals have prescribed.

    It should be noted that, unlike with Zimmermann, the Nationals have never publicly stated what Strasburg’s limit is, just that he will be shut down at some point.  General Manager Mike Rizzo has spoken on this topic many times.  He has used phrases like “eye test”, which could lead one to believe that there is an outside chance they will not shut Strasburg down at all, but he has also stated very clearly that a shutdown will occur.  It is anyone’s guess when this will be though.  Some have speculated 170 innings, maybe even 180.  These are nothing more than guesses.

    As I stated up top, I think it would be a mistake to shut down Strasburg, making him unavailable for a post-season run.  My primary reason for this opinion is because I believe the Nationals could be jeopardizing the best opportunity they will ever have to get to the World Series.  They have a very young team with up-and-coming stars, and will possibly be a pennant contender for years to come.  But nothing is guaranteed in baseball.  The Nationals play in a division full of teams that meet at least one of these three criteria:  a recent run of success, a big market, a willingness to spend large sums of money.  So just because the future looks bright for the Nats doesn’t mean they are any sort of lock to make the post-season for years to come.  In fact, I would bet heavily against it.  Do you think Phillies, Red Sox and Marlins fans expected their teams to be below .500 right now?  With an injury here or there, or a bunch of players failing to live up to expectations, that could very well be the Nationals next year or the year after.  Unless you are the Yankees, you just can’t bank on a playoff appearance every single season.

    With the additional wild card slot being added this year, I think we are going to find that winning your division is absolutely critical to advancing in the post-season.  Those wild card teams are going to have to burn their best pitcher in that one game playoff, giving them a significant disadvantage against the league’s best team in the Division Series.  So building on what I just wrote, teams are not going to want to mess around with their opportunities as division champs.  If the Nationals played in a weak division, perhaps they should like their chances of several division titles in upcoming years, but that just might not be realistic.  I will grant that the post-season can be a bit of a crap-shoot anyway, but I do think the new playoff configuration is going to make it a lot easier for the best teams to advance to the World Series, possibly the only redeeming aspect of adding more teams to the playoffs.

    So building upon that, not only should the Nationals not want to weaken their playoff roster for this season, they also need to make sure they actually win the division.  That is hardly a foregone conclusion.  The Braves are just three games behind them right now and are playing as well as anyone outside Cincinnati.  It is quite possible the Nationals are going to need every win they get in September, so trading a handful of Strasburg starts for John Lannan starts could be costly if they fall into one of the dreaded wild card spots.

    With Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson, I believe the Nationals would be the favorites to win the NL pennant this year.  Great starting pitching is the best recipe for success in the playoffs, especially in the National League.  Without Strasburg, sure the Nats will still have a solid rotation with a chance to advance in the playoffs, but why would you want to reduce your chances?

    So far, I have only talked about this from a team perspective, where as the arguments for shutting Strasburg down are about the long term health of the player.  This is where I start throwing in some caveats to my opposition of the shutdown.  I think the Nationals organization should, and will, closely monitor Strasburg in September.  If he shows signs of tiring, or general ineffectiveness for a stretch of starts, then I would be on board with pulling the plug.  If he isn’t going to be the dominating pitcher we have seen for most of his career, then there is no reason to risk it, and they might even be better off without him.  However, if he continues to be one of the best pitchers in baseball right through the end of the season, I don’t see any reason to end his season prematurely.

    I have mixed feelings about the threat of doing long term damage to Strasburg by allowing him to throw 200 or more total innings this year.  Of course, the more a pitcher pitches, the more likely he is to get hurt.  But isn’t that true of all pitchers?  Is the concern because he is coming back from Tommy John surgery, because he is only 24 years old, or some combination of the two?  I don’t think there is enough data yet on pitchers returning from Tommy John to make a definitive call on what number of innings/pitches is safe.  There have been plenty instances where players have returned and been every bit as good as they were before they got hurt, with no restrictions.  Just look at the recent outings by Adam Wainwright, who had his surgery seven months after Strasburg.  I don’t think there is any talk of shutting him down this year.

    Now, protecting young pitchers is a different story.  Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci has written about this on several occasions, demonstrating how detrimental it can be to pitchers’ long term success if they drastically surpass their previous career high in innings pitched.  This is a valid argument, and is certainly applicable to Strasburg who has never thrown more than 120 innings in a year.  But this applies to several other young pitchers who are likely to be in the heat of pennant races this fall too.  Chris Sale of the White Sox and the Cardinals’ Lance Lynn immediately come to mind.

    So I accept that there is some risk in letting Strasburg pitch all the way to the end of the Nationals season, whenever that may be.  But I believe the potential reward outweighs the risk.  And I don’t think I’m being too callous about this either, since the player himself is almost certainly willing to take that risk to have the opportunity to pitch in the post-season for the first time in his career.  One thing to keep in mind is that these are professional athletes who are being paid millions of dollars.  That doesn’t mean that teams should abuse their pitchers all in the name of winning, but ultimately one would like to think the reason why they are making all of that money is to help their teams win championships.  I believe Stephen Strasburg could help the Nationals do that right now.

    What do I expect will happen?  Well, the Nationals have given themselves some leeway by wisely not publicly stating what the innings limit is, or when exactly Strasburg’s season will end.  I think he will continue to pitch well past 160 innings, assuming he is still pitching effectively.  Since I am willing to take Mike Rizzo on his word, I will guess that they will pull the plug at some point.  Perhaps mid-September as he approaches 170-180 innings.  And if that does happen, I will give Rizzo a lot of credit for having the guts to stick to the plan.  But it is not the decision I would make.

    Finally, this decision could have a major impact on our league as well.  The Mavericks are very much alive in the title race, but they cannot afford to lose any of the pitching points they currently have.  Strasburg’s numbers will be hard to replace, especially in strike outs.  To make matters worse for the Mavericks, they officially lost Neftali Feliz for the remainder of the season as he, too, has now had Tommy John surgery.  It’s probably a good thing that these decisions on pitchers’ limits are left to professionals rather than fantasy baseball GMs though.

    So there are my two cents.  Maybe I’m being a little selfish because I’m hoping to see Strasburg pitch in playoff games at Nationals Park this October.  But since the Nationals are not my #1 team, I think I am capable of forming a reasonably objective opinion on this matter.  I won’t be one of the irate fans when Strasburg is nailed to the bench in October, but those people will exist.  Hopefully, Strasburg will have other opportunities to pitch in the post-season in years to come, but nothing is guaranteed, especially for a franchise that is mostly known for its futility.

    Categories:

  • American Dominance

    Written by:

    Kevin
    All-Star Game MVP Carlos Ruiz

    Just like the MLB All-Star Game on Tuesday, there was little drama in the DTBL All-Star Game on Thursday evening.  In the 19th annual mid-summer game, the American Division cruised to a 12-1 victory over their National Division counterparts.  The game even started eerily similar to the MLB game with Justin Verlander getting torched in the top of the first.  The National All-Stars didn’t record their first hit until the fifth inning.  Gators catcher Carlos Ruiz was named the MVP, going 3 for 3 with a home run and four runs knocked in.  The game was played at the Demidome, home of Dom’s Demigods.

    The game got off to an ominous start for the National Division with Verlander hitting Andrew McCutchen with the first pitch of the game.  McCutchen came around to score on a base hit by Jose Bautista.  David Wright followed with another RBI single.  Later in the inning, Ruiz got his big night started with a two run single to give the American team a quick 4-0 lead in the first.

    The American starting pitcher, Matt Cain, was far more effective.  He pitched two scoreless, hitless innings and was followed by David Price who pitched two innings without giving up a hit either.  Stephen Strasburg was the second pitcher into the game for the National squad, but he was only slightly more effective than Verlander.  He gave up a two run home run to Miguel Cabrera in the top of the second, which increased the American lead to six.  They were on cruise control from there, but were definitely not done scoring.

    In the top of the fifth, Cole Hamels came in to pitch for the National Division and promptly gave up extra base hits to the first three hitters he faced.  Doubles by Mark Trumbo and Ian Kinsler proceeded a two run home run by Ruiz.  Half way through the game, it was 9-0 American with the National All-Stars still looking for their first hit.  That hit finally came in the bottom of the fifth when Buster Posey hit a solo home run to end the no-hitter and shutout.

    The American Division still had more runs in them.  They scored three more in the top of the seventh to push the score to 12-1.  The big hit of the inning was a bases clearing three run double by Ryan Braun.  Neither team scored the rest of the way.  Craig Kimbrel finished things off in the ninth with a pair of strike outs, including one of A.J. Pierzynski to end mercifully end the game.

    There were plenty of offensive stars for the American Division, but Ruiz was the obvious choice for MVP.  Ruiz and Braun both had three hits and at least three RBIs (four for Ruiz).  Cabrera, Bautista and Kinsler each had multiple hits as well.  All told, the American All-Stars recorded 12 runs on 16 hits.  Meanwhile, the National team only recorded four hits, with Posey’s home run being the only hit by a National starter.  Jason Kipnis had a pair of hits off the bench.

    Cain and Price were the pitching stars of the game.  Although the OOTP box score credits Price with the win, that distinction actually belongs to Cain since we don’t have a minimum inning requirement for earning a victory in an All-Star Game.  Verlander took the loss.  The defensive star of the game was probably McCutchen.  He had six putouts in six innings in center field.  Interestingly, he made catches to end five of the six innings he played.

    As usual, the game was played using the Out of the Park Baseball simulation game.  For the second straight year, there was a live webcast of the game on LiveStream.  Check out the link below if you would like to watch the archived video.  Congrats to Jay for managing his team to an easy win and thanks for taking the time to take part in the game.  Here’s to an exciting second half!

    Box Score

    LiveStream Channel (with archived video)

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  • 2012 DTBL All-Stars

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Gators All-Star catcher Carlos Ruiz

    The votes have been counted and the rosters are set for the 19th annual DTBL All-Star Game.  The game will take place sometime next week, but the official date and time are TBD.  The Demigods will be the host club.  Jay will mange the American Division and I will call the shots for the National Division.  Jay and I were responsible for breaking any ties in the final vote results and we picked the 23rd man for our respective teams.  Without further ado, here are the 2012 DTBL All-Stars:

    American Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Matt Cain, Naturals
    • Catcher – Carlos Ruiz, Gators
    • First Base – Miguel Cabrera, Naturals
    • Second Base – Ian Kinsler, Moonshiners
    • Third Base – David Wright, Moonshiners
    • Shortstop – Asdrubal Cabrera, Naturals
    • Outfield – Jose Bautista, Choppers
    • Outfield – Andrew McCutchen, Naturals
    • Outfield – Ryan Braun, Jackalope

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – Yadier Molina, Choppers
    • First Base – Mark Trumbo, Choppers
    • Third Base – Adrian Beltre, Choppers
    • Shortstop – Elvis Andrus, Jackalope
    • Outfield – Curtis Granderson, Choppers
    • Outfield – Giancarlo Stanton, Jackalope
    • Pitcher – Zack Greinke, Naturals
    • Pitcher – David Price, Naturals
    • Pitcher – C.J. Wilson, Choppers
    • Pitcher – Jered Weaver, Moonshiners
    • Relief Pitcher – Jim Johnson, Jackalope
    • Relief Pitcher – Craig Kimbrel, Choppers
    • Relief Pitcher – Chris Perez, Naturals
    • Relief Pitcher – Chris Sale, Choppers

    National Division

    Starters:

    • Pitcher – Justin Verlander, Kings
    • Catcher – Buster Posey, Demigods
    • First Base – David Ortiz, Demigods
    • Second Base – Robinson Cano, Kings
    • Third Base – Edwin Encarnacion, Mavericks
    • Shortstop – Starlin Castro, Mavericks
    • Outfield – Carlos Beltran, Kings
    • Outfield – Josh Hamilton, Cougars
    • Outfield – Carlos Gonzalez, Kings

    Reserves:

    • Catcher – A.J. Pierzynski, Cougars
    • First Base – Adam Dunn, Mavericks
    • Second Base – Jason Kipnis, Cougars
    • Outfield – Adam Jones, Mavericks
    • Outfield – Mike Trout, Mavericks
    • Outfield – Matt Holliday, Darkhorses
    • Pitcher – Gio Gonzalez, Cougars
    • Pitcher – Stephen Strasburg, Mavericks
    • Pitcher – Cole Hamels, Demigods
    • Pitcher – Madison Bumgarner, Cougars
    • Relief Pitcher – Joel Hanrahan, Cougars
    • Relief Pitcher – Kenley Jansen, Mavericks
    • Relief Pitcher – Joe Nathan, Demigods
    • Relief Pitcher – Jonathan Papelbon, Kings

    All-Stars per team:

    • 8 – Choppers
    • 7 – Mavericks, Naturals
    • 6 – Cougars
    • 5 – Kings
    • 4 – Demigods, Jackalope
    • 3 – Moonshiners
    • 1 – Darkhorses, Gators

    Adrian Beltre and Matt Holliday were the 23rd players selected for each division.  I chose Holliday to make sure the Darkhorses were represented on the roster.  There are some interesting names NOT on the list above, namely NL MVP candidate Joey Votto and a pair of Dodgers:  Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.  The Choppers lead the way with eight All-Stars.  Interestingly, the league’s top two teams right now (Jackalope and Moonshiners) only have four and three All-Stars respectively.  On the other end of the standings, the bottom two teams (Darkhorses and Gators) only have one All-Star each.  One interesting voting fact is that all four National Division relief pitchers were chosen unanimously.  Click here to view the full voting results.  Much more All-Star Game info will be coming soon.

    Categories:

  • Around the League

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Moonshiners savior R.A. Dickey

    We’re only in the last week of June, but I’m ready to declare that we have quite a pennant race brewing.  At no point has any team in the league asserted its dominance, thus leaving us with a situation where seven out of the ten teams are in a very good position to win the championship.  Those seven teams are all within 10 points of first place, with the top five separated by just four points.  Somehow, the Mavericks have managed to hold the top spot most of the year, but it has been by the thinnest of margins at most times, including today when they are just 1/2 point clear of the Jackalope.

    As we near the half way point of the season, I’m going to take a quick look at each of the ten teams, highlighting some of the key stories for each team.  I will start with the three teams who are not currently in the thick of the race and then work my way up to the top of the standings.

    Darkhorses

    Only a year and a half removed from four consecutive championships, it would be fair to say things have gone downhill since then.  While last year was a shocking disappointment for the Darkhorses, this season has been an absolute nightmare.  Injuries have been the story of the league this season, but no team has had their season completely ruined by injuries like the Darkhorses.  They sit in last place with just 18.5 points, so they are in serious jeopardy of breaking the league’s all time low water mark of 20 points since the league expanded to 10 teams in 1998.  If you look at their roster, there is no way they should be this bad.  Besides the injuries, incredibly disappointing seasons from Adrian Gonzalez and Tim Lincecum haven’t helped either.  If those guys can turn it around and Chris Carpenter, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner return soon, maybe they can gain a little momentum and avoid a historically bad season.

    Gators

    Still a work in progress, and not really a threat this year, but things are looking up for the Gators.  Their ridiculously bad offense from ’11 has improved a bit and their pitching staff is respectable.  But there is still a lot of work to do.  Their huge pre-draft trade with the Mavericks hasn’t really worked out.  Nelson Cruz has been so-so and Mark Reynolds has provided virtually nothing.  They could have used those picks to improve in other areas, but what’s done is done.  The first draft pick they did make, Melky Cabrera in round three, has been a huge surprise, currently third in the league with a .355 average.  The Gators appear to be headed for another high draft slot next season.  With some exciting young players coming into the league again next year, maybe they will have an opportunity to grab one of them.

    Demigods

    The third team not currently in the title race is the Demigods.  At the beginning of the year, they looked like a team ready to make a run at the championship.  But like the Darkhorses, the Demigods have been sabotaged by injuries.  One in particular:  Matt Kemp.  In April, Kemp appeared to be a shoe-in for his second straight DTBL MVP award and a possible Triple Crown.  But since then, he has missed the better part of the last two months.  Who knows what he will provide when he returns?  But a healthy Kemp and Evan Longoria could get the Demigods back into contention.

    Cougars

    Although they are only in seventh place, this is the best Cougars team in a long time.  They are just 9.5 points behind the Mavericks and could get even closer if a couple of their pitchers turn things around.  Josh Hamilton has carried the offense, despite slowing down a bit of late.  Jason Kipnis has been one of the biggest steals of the draft, providing big time power and speed at a weak second base position.  Many were surprised when the Cougars passed on Stephen Strasburg with the first pick of the draft.  That may not have been a wise decision, but the Cougars made up for it by grabbing his Nationals teammate Gio Gonzalez in the second round.  Gonzalez’s numbers are pretty similar to Strasburg’s and you have to figure the Cougars would not have taken Gonzalez if they had gone with Strasburg in round one.

    Choppers

    The transformation of the Choppers has been quite remarkable.  Last year they were all offense with a questionable pitching staff.  This year, it is just the opposite.  They are second in the league with 40 pitching points, but only have 20 batting points.  One player is mostly responsible for the pitching turnaround:  Chris Sale.  Over the years, many teams have benefited from an extra starting pitcher in a relief pitching slot.  But normally, that pitcher doesn’t put up All-Star caliber stats like Sale is doing this year.  He’s keeping together a staff whose starting rotation is bandaged up with a bunch of free agent signings to fill in for other injured starters.  The injuries to the Choppers rotation could be a huge problem in the upcoming weeks/months.  But there is certainly reason to believe the offense will pick it up.  Jose Bautista is heating up, now in a tie for the league lead in home runs.  He could help the Choppers pick up some offensive points to move even closer to first place.

    Kings

    It is hard to say that a team four points out of first has been a huge disappointment, but to some degree, I think that can be said about the Kings.  The pitching staff has been atrocious as a whole.  They are ninth in the league in ERA and near the bottom in WHIP and wins too.  Justin Verlander needs some help.  Recently, the Kings have done a poor job of rotating their extra starting pitchers into the lineup.  In the last eight days, they missed out on a one hit shutout by Ervin Santana and seven great innings from Edwin Jackson last night.  If they could ever start picking the right five starting pitchers for a given week, they could be on to something.  For the most part, the offense has been great, leading the league in batting points.  But the lack of production from two Nationals, Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse, has been troubling.  The Kings are still in pretty good shape despite being in fifth place though.

    Naturals

    Much of what I wrote about the Choppers also applies to the Naturals.  They have transformed from an offensive juggernaut with a mediocre pitching staff to a team with a disappointing offense and the best pitching staff in the league.  Matt Cain, Zack Greinke and David Price have been outstanding for the Naturals rotation.  Jordan Zimmermann would be right there too if he would ever get run support and win some games.  The Naturals have to be considered one of the most dangerous teams heading into the second half because you  have to figure their offense will improve.  Having said that, the recent injury to Troy Tulowitzki could be extremely costly.  He’s expected to miss the next 6-8 weeks and they don’t have an obvious candidate to pick up the slack.

    Moonshiners

    The Moonshiners are perhaps the league’s most intriguing team right now.  They have suffered some very costly injuries to their pitching staff, with the most devastating one coming this past week when Brandon Beachy was lost for the season with a torn UCL.  Beachy was leading the league in ERA and had a sub 1.00 WHIP.  But one free agent signing may have saved their season.  Since joining the Moonshiners a month ago, R.A. Dickey has not allowed an earned run.  Read that again.  Dickey has a 0.00 ERA, 0.495 WHIP, four wins and 42 strike outs in just 34.1 innings with the Moonshiners.  The 37 year old knuckleballer has been the league’s best story this year and may have a huge say in determining if the Moonshiners can win their first DTBL championship.

    Jackalope

    It really can’t get any tighter at the top of the standings.  As of today, the defending champions sit one half point behind the Mavericks.  Batting points:  35.5 for the Mavericks, 35.0 for the Jackalope.  Pitching points:  both have 33.  So both teams are holding their own in batting and pitching.  The Jackalope got off to a bit of a slow start, but ever since their two biggest stars, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun, have started to heat up, so has this team.  I think they have to be considered the favorites at this point, especially if they are able to get anything out of Ryan Howard in the second half.  Their dominating rotation from last year hasn’t been quite the same this season.  But Felix Hernandez has been better of late, Cliff Lee will eventually win a game and Roy Halladay should provide he boost when he gets healthy.  As long as they keep it close, I like their chances down the stretch.

    Mavericks

    This has been a pretty remarkable season for the Mavericks, following two consecutive eighth place finishes.  Despite the incredible tightness of the race, they have managed to hold onto first place most of the year.  Their strategy of stockpiling draft picks is paying off.  Their pre-draft trade with the Gators may alter the course of this league for years to come.  The two players they acquired with the draft picks they received in that trade:  Stephen Strasburg and Mike Trout.  Strasburg leads the league in strike outs and is not far behind in ERA, WHIP and wins too.  What the Nationals decide to do with him when he reaches that magical 160 IP mark could have a dramatic impact on this league.  I’ll probably write about this more when that date gets closer because I have a strong opinion on the matter.  Meanwhile, I’ll be honest, I thought Trout was a bit of a gamble in the early second round because I wasn’t so sure the Angels would be able to make room for him this season.  Boy was I wrong.  He is hitting .351 and will probably be leading the league in stolen bases before June is over.  If Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Jones keep hitting home runs at their current rates, the Mavericks are going to be tough to catch, despite all the teams nipping on their heels.

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  • Cain is Able

    Written by:

    Kevin
    Naturals pitcher Matt Cain

    It’s almost getting to the point where no hitters aren’t even worth discussing, and perfect games aren’t terribly rare either.  But nonetheless, Natruals right hander Matt Cain pitched the 22nd perfect game in MLB history last night, arguably one of the most dominating pitching performances of all time.  In addition to not allowing a base runner, Cain also struck out a career high 14 hitters during the Giants 10-0 victory over the Astros.  The 14 strike outs matched Sandy Koufax for the most K’s in a perfect game.

    Using Bill James’ Game Score statistic, Cain’s outing was tied for the second best pitched game of all time, trailing only Kerry Wood’s 1 hit, 20 strike out game in 1998.  By the way, Wood’s game was also against the Astros, but a lineup that featured a couple possible future Hall of Famers.  The same cannot be said of the Astros lineup last night.  But that should not diminish Cain’s accomplishment.

    While there have only been 22 perfect games in MLB history, five of them have occurred in the past four seasons, including two this year.  Cain is the first DTBL player to do it this year tough since Phil Humber is not on the league roster.  The last DTBL perfect game before last night belonged to Roy Halladay in May of 2010.

    The history of perfect games is quite fascinating.  There had been a gap of 34 years without one before Don Larsen threw a perfect game in the 1956 World Series.  Then there was another 13 year drought between 1968 and 1981.  13 of the 22 have occurred in the past 32 years and nine since this league was formed in 1993.  There have been a lot of theories as to why they have been so frequent in recent years.  Some are fairly obvious:  there are a lot more teams, and therefore more games played than there were in the first half of the 20th century.  The end of the steroid era has led to better pitching numbers across the board in the last half dozen years or so.  One theory I like is more about the increase in no hitters than perfect games:  it could have a lot to do with the diminished focus on batting average as a significant stat.  Strike outs are way up in the current era.  It stands to reason that with fewer balls being put into play, fewer hits will fall in.  But this is only a partial explanation since the MLB-wide batting average is not even close to historical lows.  Whatever the reasons may be, perfect games are still extremely impressive achievements.

    With his outing last night, Cain moved into the DTBL lead in WHIP with a miniscule 0.853 mark.  Although he’s not likely to keep it there all season, only two DTBL players have finished a full season with a lower WHIP.  His 2.18 ERA, eight wins and 96 strike outs are all in the top three of the league as well.  Cain has been a solid performer for the Naturals since 2007.  His highest ERA was a very respectable 3.57 in his DTBL rookie season (’07).  Yet wins have been hard to come by, mostly due to the Giants anemic offense in recent years.  Cain has never reached the 15 win mark, though he seems to be a pretty good bet to do it this year since he’s already more than half way there.  He leads the Naturals in all pitching categories except for saves, so he deserves most of the credit for their league high 41 pitching points.  The Naturals are currently in fourth place, but just eight points out of first.  Their batting/pitching numbers are almost reversed from last year when it was their hitting that led them to a second place finish.

    Cain was only one of several pitchers who put up extremely impressive numbers on Wednesday night.  The Cardinals’ Lance Lynn matched Cain’s strike out total of 14, allowing three hits in 7+ scoreless innings.  And R.A. Dickey nearly made it two no hitters in one night.  He allowed just one infield hit in a complete game.  The Mets are appealing to try to get the scoring of the one hit changed to an error, but I would be absolutely shocked if the appeal is upheld.  Dickey has been an amazing story all year.  Last night, he broke the Mets team record for consecutive scoreless innings before allowing an unearned run in the ninth.  But since the Moonshiners signed him as a free agent a few weeks ago, he is yet to allow an earned run in 25 1/3 innings.  He has won 10 games this year (three with the Moonshiners).

    Finally, following my last blog post a few weeks ago, there were a few comments about possible rule changes for next season.  I decided to start a Forum thread to get a discussion going.  If you haven’t read it yet, please check it out and provide any feedback you may have.

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